EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Recall the short EUR/AUD trade in March from 1.6100’s to 1.5500’s inside a 2 month time frame. EUR/AUD actually ended in June at 1.5200’s and the rise to current 1.5800’s is the result from the 1.5200 lows.

At current 1.5800’s, EUR/AUD targets again 1.5500’s but this time the target is located at 1.5549. Longest term, EUR/AUD contains every ability to travel back to 1.5300’s. Along the way to 1.5500’s, break points are located at 1.5778, 1.5722, 1.5703, 1.5628 and 1.5611.

The strategy over the next months is sell any and all price rises until 1.5500’s achieve its destination. Any price rises is a bonus and only adds to shorts. The only manner to handle EUR/AUD is a short only strategy as longs are literally impossible. The March mistake was allow EUR/AUD to trade on its own to the 1.5500 target for roughly 300 pips per month. A sell only daily / weekly strategy pays far more until the 1.5500 target achieves.

A EUR/AUD short then explains how AUD/USD achieves its 0.7500 targets short term and 0.7800’s over the longer term. A EUR/AUD rise severely contains AUD/USD and prevents an AUD move higher.

EUR/NZD contains serious range problems because its moving averages are all in bad shape and lacks decent uniformity. Yet all vital averages are far overbought.

The vital break points are located at 1.7174, 1.7142, 1.7089 and 1.7016 then the longer range target is located at 1.6848 and 1.6737. The first short target is located at 1.7142 from current low 1.7200’s.

Above break points are located at 1.7412 and 1.7407. The EUR/NZD strategy is the replica of EUR/AUD to sell any and all rallies over the longer term to target 1.7016 then 1.6800’s.

Other pairs contian range problems similar to EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD and those pairs include USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD and AUD/CAD. In days ahead, I will take a view and post the problem pairs.

 

Brian Twomey

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