Currency Markets this week retain 2nd week of Statistical nightmares, Statistical anomalies where Majors in USD V Non USD are at Statistical Wars with respect to their own prices as well as war against other currency pairs. USD/CAD 1.3400 and USD/JPY 110.90’s great examples. War means pertinent Statistics lack uniformity to higher / lower but the condition is temporary and offers trade opportunities and insights to types of markets that will trade as the market rightsizes prices. The key is understanding.
Current Stat war is causing much grief to cross pairs as evident by high / low price noise. Cross pair prices settled March / April and allowed USD V Non to perform their movement tasks. Problem pair range noise means its time again for cross pairs to move once more as USD V Non become settled. Afterall, its been 3 months. Currency pair trade selection again is most vital as problem range pairs developed within the mix over the past 2 weeks.
The derivation to Statistical lack of consistency is caused by the Fed’s raise 3 weeks ago as prices then were knocked off intended price paths only to begin again. EUR/USD 3 weeks ago at 1.1720 contained an 1.1812 target but was knocked lower to 1.1500’s by the Fed’s raise. USD/CAD traded to 1.3400’s on a 1.2900’s target. GBP/USD traded 1.3000’s on a 1.3300 target.
If ever an opportunity existed to demonstrate Statistical Price Paths, its found in the past 3 weeks as target prices must fill intended obligations to then settle. From 1.1500’s, EUR/USD so far traded 1.1767, GBP/USD achieved 1.3290 and USD/CAD traded to 1.3076 lows. A Statistical Price Path offered and consummately offers greater opportunities.
Here’s the pairs to watch / trade for best moves, EUR/CHF, GBP/CHF, AUD/CHF and the commonality is CHF.
EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD and AUD/CAD against commonality to CAD. EUR/CAD is significantly out of sync. Watch Poloz this week closely.
GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD. Overall AUD/NZD is a horrible currency pair while recall in March the advice to not trade GBP/NZD as it was caught in a 1.9200 to 1.9500 range without clear trade signals to the 150 pip trade criteria.
EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD.
EUR/GBP remains and seems will retain status as problem for time immemorial and is a pair to not trade.
EUR/USD break point for higher /lower is located at 1.1807 to then target higher at 1.1862, 1.1925, 1.1932, 1.1977 and eventual 1.2087.
EUR/USD below main breaks are well supported at 1.1702, 1.1677, 1.1635 and 1.1545. Long only remains EUR/USD strategy.
USD/JPY’s higher /lower break point is located at 109.92 and lower is the objective to 109.22. USD/JPY must first break 110.47, 110.23 and 110.05. USD/JPY traded an 85 pip range from 111.13 to 110.28 and advice last week to refrain from trade in USD/JPY was correct. USD/JPY will continue to under perform.
USD/CAD break point is located at 1.3019 and lower targets 1.2970, 1.2951, 1.2903 and 1.2844. Short only remains the overall strategy.
AUD/USD break Point for higher/ lower is located at 0.7517 to target 0.7577 and 0.7633. Long only strategy remains especially at 0.7389 and any price below to target the break at 0.7517.
GBP/USD break point for higher / lower is located at 1.3407 to target higher at 1.3522 and 1.3623. Lower is supported at 1.3242 and 1.3196. Again, long only strategy is the way as GBP heads much higher from currency levels.