GDP: Levels, Ranges, Targets

US GDP consensus forecast at 2.2 is extraordinarily light in terms of overall GDP averages spread over a 10 year period. Every average from 1 to 10 years sits dead on the floor and deeply oversold. The potential for a 3% and lower 4.0% GDP is easily achievable if not Friday then within reach of the next release.

The range of the overall averages begins at 1.90 and 1.98 to 2.65. The 2.2 forecast is located at the 1 year average and this location alone warns of a higher GDP. Typically, consensus predictions are seen when GDP is forecast from the 4 and 5 year averages. We’ve seen this many times before against prior written forecasts to NFP’s.

Targets range from 2.68 and 2.77 to 4.03 and 4.09. Why the wide variation is due to oversold averages and targets are points where the distribution of averages must align. This means targets must fulfill destinations and 4.0% is on the way.

The first realistic targets are located at 2.68, 2.77, 3.06 and 3.13. Note 2.68 as the first target surpasses the longest 2.65 average. A forecast above 2.65 then the averages will rise and GDP will later result in higher forecasts.

Last quarter, USD Dollar GDP increased a whopping 4.2% or $200 billion as overall Nominal GDP stands at $19.96 trillion. Overall Nominal GDP represents a nation’s wealth. What assist a far higher GDP over next quarters are Corporate profits and corporate profits are skyrocketing.

Overall, GDP is forecast higher than 2.2% to near 3.0%.

 

Brian Twomey

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