EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, January Seasonals
Yesterday’s 60 pip move from EUR/USD and wide rangers EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD informs not only is EUR/USD driver to cross pairs but a small 60 pip move on bombshell growth announcements should’ve seen a larger range.
EUR/USD is deeply entangled to USD/EUR and USD pair EUR/GBP. This USD V EUR relationship must break to see wider EUR/USD moves.
USD is the driver but overall in Q3, the G10 in USD V Non USD as drivers to cross pairs are correct historically in currency markets.
EUR/USD January seasonal works as overall since 1999 to 12 down months V 8 up months. 12 down months avg is 294 Vs 285 avg up months. For 2008 to 2018 works as 5 down months V 6 up months with 339 avg for down months V 294 avg up months.
From 1999 to 2008 saw 7 down months at a 262 avg V 3 up months at a 263 avg. For 2008 to 2018 saw a more highly neutral EUR/USD compared to overall 1999 to 2018 and 1999 to 2008.
Brian Twomey contact btwomey.com
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