AUD, NZD, EUR, USD FX and Interest Rates

AUD, NZD, EUR, USD FX and Interest Rates
RBA interest rates at top end Bank Bills at the 1 month monthly maturity current 1.86 hasn’t been seen since early November and the current drop is the result from 2.05 highs on January 3rd. A miraculous drop by RBA’s deeply range bound interest rate standards.
Now AUD is deeply converging against low low NZD then ultra low USD from a curve average perspective. Not many basis points separates USD V NZD V AUD yet both NZD and AUD trade in conventional positions above USD from a curve perspective but maturities trade below USD.
If AUD correlations remain off klter to interest rates and interest rates head higher then AUD is set for a deep drop.
Smart as usual is the RBNZ and clearly brilliant to see and adjust to any market storms. They automatically adjust rates to hold NZD in check.
The ECB and EUR as usual remains comatose as bottom maturity at -0.110 began a steady drop over last 5 weeks from -0.120 to support EUR yet its curve averages are skyrocket high against AUD, USD and NZD.
This forced EUR containment and ability to not break its major high / low break at today’s 1.1390.
USD curve averages are scary low against maturities miles high above counterparts EUR, AUD, NZD. Explains dead DXY and no relief in sight.
                 Brian Twomey

 

Daily FX Trade Methodology

 Thank you to my recent contact from South Africa for reminding me not to exclude my blog in all writings and trades. Thank you to all long time friends and readers as views are skyrocketing. Comments, questions, concerns then please feel free to contact brian@btwomey.com
My trusted friend, http://tantalumwatches.com  exquisite top brand name Watches, #watches, Pocket Watches, Rings, luxurious, please have a look, Brian Twomey
                 Daily FX Trade Methodology.
The 1970’s free float was a never before seen invention for central banks to base currency prices traded against interest rates.
My daily trade system is an exact replica to the original intent against latest central bank methodological interest rate changes.
Anytime central banks change methodologies, I adjust. Central banks offer daily no lose trades when interest rates are released but my system employs a mathematical overbought / oversold component as added feature as well as a vital break point level.
Support and resistance levels change daily and constantly move, sometimes much, sometimes little. I know daily from central banks where those levels are located.
Tops and bottoms are known from central banks and become targets.
EUR/USD today bottom 1.1227, GBP/USD 1,3026. AUD/USD Top today 0.7092, EUR/JPY 126.14.
Support, and resistance, tops and bottoms allows multiple longs and shorts per currency pair. Usually bout 50 pips per pair.
Bottoms are always well known and protected by central banks, its upside requires attention.
Gaps. Huge topic, must know as vital level found between exchange rate intervals. Ex EUR/USD 1.1238, EUR/JPY 125.08, AUD/USD 0.7028 and 0.7029. Gaps occur often but is little known. 
Interest rates apply to 1st position. USD for USDCAD, EUR to EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD
                     Brian Twomey

 

EUR/NZD Weekly Trade Example

Most Entries are exact and very specific and hold true week after week over many months but what if an entry is wrong.
Here’s a weekly trade example. A Draw down? No, opportunity to add 1 lot to an off entry because I knew exactly where the target was located and I knew price was going directly to the target.
No such concept as draw down exists in trading as this is a misnomer. Target counts first then entry.
Why the specific entry I cannot explain but allow this:
EUR/NZD is a wide range currency pair. Readers would remember the 1.7800 to 1.7000’s trade months ago.
Weekly Strategy. EUR/NZD lacks a trend and long term target but rather it ranges weekly. This means EUR/NZD price is settled and settled prices are meant to leave alone but EUR/NZD ranges weekly 200 ish pips so can’t say no to this pair.
If I highlighted GBP/USD then the strategy would become long only until GBP/USD achieves 1.3700’s target.
As can be seen here, I maintain from calculations a deep simplicity to trades so anyone may understand. Entry then Target.
And as usual interested in trades then fell free to contact. For daily trades, 8 pairs are sent twice daily to cover 24 hour trades continuously from Sunday to Friday.
                  Brian Twomey

WEEKLY and LONG TERM TRADES

Weekly and Long term trades were offered to interested subscribers since last July 2018. Long term trades are defined as 3, 5, 8 and 1000 pips trades and targets. Targets hit absolutely perfect, even at 1 and 2 month trade duration. See last March / April on Fxstreet, 35 trades, never the same pairs hit for 4000 pips. Since, I offered many many long term trades on twitter and Linked In to show long term targets and to prove it can be done. The qualification to FX street trades was 150 pips or better or the trade wasn’t worth the time and effort.

Market conditions must be correct to offer 4 and 1000 pip trades. Except for AUD pairs, not many exist currently.

The model is not only perfect for long term trades but no stops needed, charts, graphs, Fibs. Whatever was previously written on currency trading, charts, graphs, market talk blah blah is all wrong. We have all been exposed to the greatest lies, fallacies, scams, losing trades that has ever been foisted on the trading public. I can prove my claims without a shadow of a doubt. The famous, the Currency Analysts,, leading traders and experts are proven dangerous, losers and should refrain from their losing actions. Jail for grand larceny, conspiracy, theft and destroyed lives is to kind for these crooks.

The chart, candle and fibs are the greatest limitations to traders because it limits their views and profit ability. All quantified and validated.

The model and trades to above claims also works perfectly to stock indices, commodities and any financial instrument on the planet. Again, proven by trades but also certified by my friend Peter Wadkins, a 47 year FX veteran, ACI licensed.

As long term trades weren’t available, I took the long term model to devise weekly trades. Weekly trades based on Sunday instructions earn roughly 2000 pips per week on 10 and 12 currency pairs. Certain weeks bit more than 2000, other weeks slightly less. But 2000 is a great average.

I’m currently gong back to all the weeks since July and finding 2000 weekly is really a good average.

And again, stops, charts, latest market blather is pablum and proven because the weekly trades are perfect. Entry and target is all that’s needed and voila, free money trades are here. And it is just that simple.

Daily interest rate trades are becoming less popular but they are equally perfect. And again certified by Peter Wadkins who also truly understands like me all nation’s interest rates and application to exchange rates and prices.

Multitudes, long term friends and followers surely know exactly what I have done. Putting this model together I assure readers took time and deep effort. We must understand before we can trade. Obviously, multitudes that don’t know me all must think I’m a loon but that’s okay too. They will fall into the hands of the losers and will be soon bounced from the market to earn a living by other means.

Brian Twomey

 

March Weekly Trade Results

FX Weekly Trade Results Weekly and Long term Models were built against excruciating detail and time and produces effortlessly 2000 ish weekly pips on 10 and 12 currency pairs. Results and reporting is honest and factual, certified by my friend Peter Wadkins. I’m trying to give wealth for interested for a pittance in return.
Daily interest rate trades represents extra pips.
GBPAUD 1.8356, Target 1.8672, actual 1.8356 – 1.8611, +255 Pips. 1.8672, Target 1.8145, actual 1.8356 -1.8274, +82 Pips, ongoing. Long 1.8145, target 1.8303, not triggered.
USDCAD 1.3311, Target 1.3163, actual 1.3311 – 1.3297, not triggered. 1.3163 , target 1.3274, not triggered. 1.3477, 1.3459, Target 1.3322, not triggered.
CADJPY 82.16, 82.35, Target 82.99, not triggered. 83.33, Target 84.48, actual 83.33 – 83.91, +58 Pips.
GBPNZD 1.9061, 1.9090, Target 1.9177, actual 1.9062 -1.9177, +115 Pips, 1.9207, Target 1.9351, actual 1.9207 – 1.9473, +144 on instruction
EURAUD 1.5805, Target 1.5910, actual 1.5712 -1.5877, +72 ? 1.5985, Target 1.5935, not triggered.
EURCAD 1.4969, Target 1.5087, actual 1.4905 – 1.5015, +46? Terrible performance
. . 3195 Pips available, 12 Currency pairs, 26 total Trades.
Last week for context 2942 Pips available, 12 Currency pairs, 24 Trades earned 1990 Pips.
Trades factored for contingencies to breaks at significant points. Actual 1685 Pips.
GBPUSD 1.2933 1.2886, Targets 1.3027, not triggered. 1.3074, Target 1.3238, Actual 1.3074 to 1.3195, +121 pips, 1.3238 target 1.3102, actual 1.3195 – 1.3102, +92 Total 213.
EURUSD 1.1215, 1.1183, Target 1.1313, actual 1.1183 -1.1153, +70, ongoing Target, week 2
GBPCHF 1.2843, 1.2873, Target 1.2982, Actual 1.2953 – 1.2982. not triggered. 1.3022, Target 1.3141, actual 1.3022 – 1.3173, +119, on instruction.
GBPCAD 1.7296, Target 1.7350, not triggered. 1.7404, Target 1.7620, Actual 1.7404 – 1.7614, + 210.
GBPJPY 143.57, 143.81, Target 144.77, not triggered. 145.02, Target 146.91, Actual 145.02 – 147.19, +189 on instruction.
                   Brian Twomey

DXY V CORN

DXY V CORN
DXY price at 97.21 is not only at upper range highs but warrants a deep correction.
Problem DXY is well supported at 95.92, 95.54, 95.39 then 94.34, 94.13.
Only a break at 94.13 would see a deeper move to 91.97 and 90.39.
Best DXY correction is located at 96.89 and 96.79 and lower is required to challenge 95.92, 95.54 and 95.39.
DXY ranges is located from 95.92 to 98.00’s but don’t push your luck at 98.00’s.
The best shorts on a sell only strategy is 98.62, 98.78 and 98.81 to target 96.89 and 96.79.
Short only strategy because DXY’s current price is to high and its impossible to trade long.
This short only condition in currency pairs and DXY in particular may last for many months and DXY is no different from the 28 majors.
Overall, DXY isn’t worth the trouble to consider a worthy trade.
DXY Vs Corn Correlations from monthly AVGS 1 to 5Y = 0.29, 0.02, 0.05, 0.02 and 23%.
From 5 to 10Y AVGS barely achieves 50% correlations.
DXY’s price is to high, Corn 356.62 price is to low.
Corn faces many hurdles to trade higher from 361.32, 369.36 and to 392.79.
Above 392.79 required to challenge 439.18, 467.41.
Good long located at 338.66, 341.88, 344.09, targets 350.07, 354.02.
Corn widest ranges: 320.00’s to 600.00’s and buy drops as 320.00’s is 36 points from bottoms.
   Brian Twomey

 

GBP and JPY Interest Rates and Yield Curves

GBP/USD UK and Japanese Interest Rates/ Yield Curves
UK Yield Curve / Interest Rates are established as the same system as the United States, Interest Rates below then Yields above Interest Rates.
Interest rates price yields. Today’s Sonia 0.7047, February month avg 0.7061, month averages released 19th every month.
Japanese are quite different. Tibor Interest rates positioned below Yields, Euroyen Tibor also positioned below yields.
Normally Euroyen are intertwined with Yen Tibor. The difference between onshore and offshore.Japanese overnight Call Rates however are negative -0.067 last evening or 0.933.
More work needs to complete this quick presentation regards to Japanese Interest rate system.
Tibor Overnight -0.01091 or 0.98
1m=0.0609
3m= 0.0690
6m= 0.1263
12m= 0.13636
Euroyen Tibor 1 week =0.00700
1M= 0.09200
3m= 0.0500
6m= 0.09500
12m = 0.15300 Yields.
   UK Yields
3m =0.831
2Y = 0.832
3Y =0.817
5Y = 0.806
10Y = 0.913
15Y= 0.167
20= 0.34
30y= 0.51. Read research this morning claims UK and Japanese Yield curves invert often. Not sure this statement
             Brian Twomey

 

Mueller Report

Mueller Report

The Trump Russia propaganda by Robert Mueller is considered an “Investigation”.

Investigations especially criminal derives from the Department of Justice under CFR 600 Regulations and considered private to protect witnesses, sources and methods, national security and Ethics.

CFR Regulations derives from the Ethics in Government Act. First is ACT / Law then Regulations drawn to define Laws.

The misnomer term is Special Counsel as Mueller isn’t a special counsel but a DOJ appointed Attorney to investigate Trump / Russia claims. If Mueller was actually a Special Counsel then 600.8 Regs mandates Mueller to write frequent reports to Congress.

Since Mueller isn’t a Special Counsel then no obligation exists for Mueller or the DOJ to release the final report to the public especially if national security or ethical standards exist. Attorney General Barr released a 4 page summary and cleared Trump. Barr is not obligated by CFR Regs to write 1 word nor is Barr obligated to write another word.

Because its a 2 year issue and involves a President, Barr had to write to clear Trump. The Democrats just voted and passed under the House Judiciary Committee to Subpoena the full Mueller Report and goes against the mandate of Ethics laws and CFR Regs. PR at work

 

Brian Twomey

Recent Linked IN Posts

3804 Available Pips, ridiculously high, 12 Currency Pairs, 28 Trades. High explained by contingency
Trades and Trend V Range Markets. low pip count = trades to Target vs Range, contingencies.
Available Pips below.
EURCAD Poor performer will Drop in favor NZDCAD, Good Carry Cross, margin, Movements.
EURAUD poor performer, must remain, Vital Currency Pair V AUDUSD and AUDEUR
GBPUSD 387 Pips
GBPCHF 534, High
GBPAUD 662, High
GBPJPY 434 High
USDCAD 260
CADJPY 236
EURUSD 249
GBPCAD 310
GBPNZD 239
EURNZD 170
EURAUD 185
EURCAD 138
   Brian Twomey
                 My trusted friend, http://tantalumwatches.com  exquisite top brand name Watches, #watches, Pocket Watches, Rings, luxurious, please have a look, Brian Twomey