The Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act 2015

The Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015 calls for treasury to monitor macroeconomic and currency policies of major trading partners and conduct enhanced analysis of and engagement with those partners if they trigger certain objective criteria that provide insight into possibly unfair currency practices.

Key word Monitor, established Monitor list against 3 thresholds:

1. Trade Goods Surplus with US = $20 billion., 40 billion annual. Currently 21 nations in violation and accounts for 90% of all trade Surpluses with US.

The Monitoring List comprises Japan, Korea, Germany, Italy, Ireland, Singapore, Malaysia, and Vietnam

2. Material Current Account Surplus = 2% of GDP, Previous 3%. and

3. Persistent one sided FX Intervention net purchases = 2% GDP over 6 -12 months., previous 8 -12 months.

china earned right to 2 year Monitor list, also agreed at G20 to refrain from Competitive devaluation.

Currency Manipulation Threshold, speculation is 10% movement over 6 -12 months.

China qualifies from 2018 lows 6.92. Criteria is from Long Run average?.

Bretton Woods remains only strengthened. 1% movements speculation equals 1 to 10% allowable movements.

2. Gold and Silver in free float still completely connected to Gold and Silver Currencies. Gold to Gold Currency spreads however are never far from each other and the same for Silver and Silver currencies.

The Gold Silver Ratio is more than an indicator to trade Gold and Silver but allows for trades in currencies at the same time.

 

Brian Twomey

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