Weekly trades this week focus is NZD as RBNZ meets Wednesday and currently NZD is running perfectly on all cylinders. Next set of weekly trades are USD/NOK, EUR/NOK and GBP/ZAR however analysis is required as NOK and ZAR contain deep price problems.


EUR/USD V USD/NOK Correlations short term for 1 year runs -98 % and this is correct.

The problems reside as EUR/USD Vs EUR/NOK Correlations at -96% then EUR/NOK and USD/NOK at + 99%. EUR/NOK is not correct to EUR/USD as the Correlation must be positive nor is EUR/NOK correct Vs USD/NOK as the Correlation must be negative.

EUR/NOK is clearly the problem currency pair. To rectify and rightsize the correlation to positive, EUR/USD must trade higher or EUR/NOK must trade lower. USD/NOK however is deeply overbought and far more overbought than EUR/NOK. EUR/USD is deeply oversold.


GBP/ZAR Correlations Vs GBP/USD at +78% is precise but GBP/ZAR Vs USD/NOK at +94% lacks proper alignment but is correct at 94% Vs EUR/NOK.

USD/NOK and EUR/NOK Weekly Trades

USD/NOK. Short 9.3039 and 9.3168 to target 9.1367. The first target at 9.1882 will achieve easily.

On a longer term basis on a break of 9.0854, USD/NOK targets 8.7766 and 8.3831. Miles upon miles of downside exists to USD/NOK on a sell rally strategy for many, many months in the future.

What 8.3831 represents is proper alignment and to offer what it means for exchange rate prices are never correct. USD/NOK has no business trading a 9 handle.

USD/NOK to follow the weekly trade, vital downside levels are located at 9.2911, 9.2783, 9.2655, 9.2527, 9.2399, 9.2271,9.2143, 9.2015, then 9.1882 target.

EUR/NOK. Short 10.1906 and 10.1957 to target 10.1235. The first target at 10.1338 will achieve easily.

On a longer term basis on a break of 10.0512, EUR/NOK targets 9.8034 and 9.5389. To align properly, EUR/NOK must trade to 9.5389.

To follow the weekly trade, vital levels are located at 10.1854, 10.1751, 10.1648, 10.1545, 10.1442, 10.1338 and 10.1235 target.

GBP/ZAR. Short 19.4365 and 19.4448 to target 19.2370. To follow the trade to target, vital levels are located at 19.4199, 19.4033, 19.3867, 19.3701, 19.3535. 19.3369, 19.3203, 19.3037, 19.2871, 19.2705, 19.2538 and 19.2373.

Long term and on a break of 18.9708, GBP/ZAR targets 18.1722 and 18.2850.

GBP/ZAR like USD/NOK and EUR/NOK is far off sync to its proper trade location at 18.2850. Until 18.2850 trades then GBP/ZAR adopts a sell rally strategy for many, many months in the future.


Not only is NZD’s main pairs, NZD/USD, NZD/JPY and NZD/CHF properly aligned but NZD will publish this week to Exchange Rates predict Exchange Rates alongside the NZD orientation to its exchange rates, tops, bottoms possible neutrality to NZD/USD and relationship to NZD/AUD.

NZD/USD. Long 0.6394 and 0.6383 to target 0.6496. Must cross 0.6416, 0.6438, 0.6460 and 0.6482.

Long above 0.6504 to target 0.6592. Must cross 0.6526, 0.6548,, 0.6570 and 0.6581.

NZD/JPY. Long 70.22 and 69.88 to target 70.75. Must cross 70.38, 70.54 and 70.70.

Long above 70.89 to target 72.21. Must cross 71.05, 71.21, 71.37, 71.53, 71.69, 71.85, 72.01 and 72.17

NZD/CHF. Long 0.6251 and 0.6239 to target 0.6339. Must cross 0.6251, 0.6263, 0.6275, 0.6287, 0.6301, 0.6313 and 0.6325.

Long above 0.6352 to target 0.6426. Must cross 0.6364, 0.6376, 0.6388, 0.6400 and 0.6412.


Brian Twomey

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