Weekly Trades: GBP/NZD, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/ZAR

This week’s trade theme derived from solicited trader requests and the winning pairs are GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD and again, GBP/ZAR. All wide ranging currency pairs to include 2 traditionally neutral pairs; EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD.

Two factors qualify EUR/CAD as neutral: as middle currency to EUR/USD and current price location between the 5 and 10 year averages from 1.4200’s to 1.4700’s. Recall last year’s March / April’s EUR/CAD trade from 1.5300’s to 1.4800’s. As stated last year, EUR/CAD was then dropped from trade consideration as 1.4800’s settled EUR/CAD’s price. Once a price is settled, any pair is dropped.

Since last April 2019, EUR/CAD traded 1.5100’s to 1.4300’s and 1.4900’s to 1.4300’s from July 19 to current day. Why drop is due from a 500 pip range and settled price lacks qualification for longer term 5 and 800 pip trades and EUR/CAD’s range longer term entered compression mode. A breakout is warranted from current location between 5 and 10 year averages but until EUR/CAD trades to either 1.5500’s or 1.3500’s then only a weekly trade exits.

GBPCAD automatically qualifies as neutral due to total opposite and location between defining currency market pairs, GBP/USD and USD/CAD. GBP/CAD further qualifies as neutral as it currently trades between 5 and 10 year averages from 1.7200’s to 1.7600’s.

Normal neutrality for GBP/CAD is trade between 5 and 16 year averages. As EUR/CAD, a breakout is on the way for GBP/CAD.

Short term, nothing special in regards to GBP/CAD except its wide ranges and qualification as a great weekly trade.

Overall, the vast majority of G28 currency pairs trade below 5 year averages and this means not only are prices extremely low but wide ranging movements remains dead. Until prices trade above 5 year averages, volatility will remain lifeless.

Short term, daily non movement to nation’s interest rates are compressing currency price ranges and this situation is growing worse. The ECB’s new STR interest rate introduced last October now allows EUR/USD barely a 100 pip trade week, AUD at barely 50 pips, NZD at 100 and the list goes on.

Nothing special to GBP except it trades within the confines of its basic ranges.

GBP/ZAR contains easily ability to trade 4500 – 5000 pips per week. Currently GBP/ZAR at its 19.4546 close is massively overbought. The long term target remains 18.2850 on a break of its 5 year average at 18.5877.

GBP/USD remains overbought and in a downtrend since it touched its long term target at 1.3400’s. Until 1.3515 breaks, GBP/USD’s downtrend remains.

GBP this week will suffer a bit higher until short points are achieved.

Weekly Trades

GBP/NZD. Short 2.0276 and 2.0304 to target 1.9991. Must cross 2.0248, 2.0220, 2.0192, 2.0162, 2.0134, 2.0106, 2.0078, 2.0050, 2.0022 and 1.9994.

Break 1.9931 targets 1.9820.

GBP/AUD. Short 1.9441 and 1.9480 to target 1.9117. Must cross 1.9402, 1.9363, 1.9324, 1.9285, 1.9246, 1.9207, 1.9168 and 1.9129.

GBP/CAD. Short 1.7315 and 1.7341 to target 1.7133. Must cross 1.7289, 1.7263, 1.7237, 1.7211, 1.7185 and 1.7159.

Short below 1.7081 to target 1.6977. Must cross 1.7055, 1.7029 and 1.7003.

EUR/CAD. Long 1.4357 and 1.4342 to target 1.4534. Long at market open is also acceptable. Must cross 1.4386, 1.4415, 1.4445, 1.4474, 1.4504 and 1.4519.

GBP/ZAR short 19.4716 and 1.4886 to target 19.0636. Must cross 19.4546, 19.4376, 19.4206, 19.4036, 19.3866, 19.3695, 19.3526, 19.3356, 19.3186, 19.3016. 19.2846, 19.2676, 19.2506, 19.2336,19.2166, 19.1996, 19.1826, 19.1656, 19.1486, 19.1316, 19.1146, 19.0976, 19.0806, 19.0636 target.

 

Brian Twomey

6 thoughts on “Weekly Trades: GBP/NZD, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/ZAR

  1. My Twomey,

    Just purchased and read your ebook on using Z score. I just started following you on your site and am fascinated with the way you view and trade FX.

    I really want to learn and use yourZ score for trading FX. (If it is still e methodology you use)…the issue is I am not a mathematics guy per say…. and all of the formulas and equations in the book would require significant time to input daily and calculate.

    Is their an automated tool, software or excel spreadsheet that I could access/purchase to do ZScore daily on an ongoing basis?

    Thx

    James.

    Sent from my iPhone

    >>

    1. Hi James and please Brian is more acceptable as we are all friends and multi year followers. My site contains traders and friends who’ve been following for nearly 9 years, since at least 2012.

      if it seems like the calculations are difficult, its not hard once its understood what to calculate. Richard Dacosta, fx_baba on twitter purchased my Z score book and the good about Richard is he’s a great computer person. I am computer stupid and way back, I calculated all trades by pen, paper and calculator.

      Richard could set up an excel system in no time flat. And he’s been working extremely hard over many months to work Z scores in many different ways.

      If you are interested, I will put you in touch with Richard. He’s located in the United States.

      As always, If I can assist in any way, please feel free as I would be happy to help

  2. Brian,

    Thanks so much for your response. Yes, I am interested in connecting with Richard about excel solution for calculating Z scores.

    Thx.

    James

    1. Hi James,

      Richard’s email is fxbaba108@gmail.com. I’ve known Richard for a while and I’ve seen much much computer work from him. Not that He’s a good guy and he’s honest. Any assistance along the way, I am glad to help.

  3. Hey Brian,

    Just started following the site. Implemented the trades this week on Sunday night. I think I need clarity or more instructions… because you posted some results for these trades today…. and my results were that I had loosing positions on 3 of the trades … and you had winning positions or trade still running marked. I am currently positive in 1 trade you suggested and the other has not triggered.
    I guess I need more understanding on the process and trade implementation and management.
    Any help or resource/guidance is appreciated

    Thx

    James Weaver

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