Entries, Targets and Weekly Pip Counts: An Explanation

Weekly trade results are documented here on site from February to July 2019. Results account for 10 and 12 currency pairs Around June and July 2019, I added 6 more currency pairs so totals then are much higher compared to today at 18 weekly trades.

 

Why 18 currency pairs is from trader requests. Then I began to truly analyze all 24 currency pairs for weekly trade results and relationship to long term targets and found certain currency pairs at specific times run extremely strong. EUR/CAD, EUR/CHF and EUR/GBP are 3 great examples.

 

EUR/CHF and EUR/CAD were traded heavily and always successfully until long term targets achieved respected destinations. Then both pairs traded in dead ranges and failed to offer a substantial weekly pip count to my satisfaction so I eliminated both pairs and replaced by 2 more stronger running pairs outside of their long term targets.

 

To my satisfaction means weekly trade criteria is 150 to + 200 pip targets. Any trade at or less than 100 ish pips classifies as a day trade and not a weekly.

 

Once a currency pair achieves its long term targets then the pair must drop from consideration as it won’t perform to 150 and 200 pip weekly specifications. A drop may mean as much as 1 year but it depends on the currency pair and its allowable movements to long term targets. EUR/CHF and EUR/CAD still hasn’t performed to weekly trade criteria.

 

EUR/GBP was never a consideration to weekly trades due to small movements and relationship to long term targets.
Further to why 18 is no trade criteria to USD/CHF, CAD/CHF, CHF/JPY, AUD/NZD, USD/JPY, AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD. Although AUD/CAD, NZD/CAD and CAD/CHF are vital to the AUD, NZD and CAD universe of cross pairs. All represent tops to AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.

 

CHF/JPY and USD/JPY are slow movers but also the same currency pair. They complement pairs to each other and should trade together at the same time to generate the weekly trade criteria. But this means factoring 2 additional trades to unknown results.

 

A tade is factored first then a determination is rendered to its trade ability.

 

Last to why 18 currency pairs is a multi year personal ambition to trade perfect entries to perfect targets for every pair. This feat I accomplished in many, many weeks.

 

As targets, entries and weekly pip counts were extremely high and terrific, I stopped reporting results and stopped looking as trades were perfect.

 

Here’s end June 2019 after 4 months of weekly trades.

 

Actual Profit Pips = 23,021

Actual Pip Profit Average 1292

We profit on Average 1292 pips per week on 12 currency pairs. We maintain profit at least 50% of all traded pips on 12 currency pairs. Mathematically, SD on 17 weeks and 12 currency pairs = 650.40 and 1/2 of 1292 = 646. This means weekly pip totals every week for 4 months ran far higher than the deviations. Its extraordinary to performance.

 

Not revealed was factored a high and low to weekly pip totals. Weekly totals then informed weekly pip counts were extremely low. I failed to understand then what low meant. Upon further analysis, Low then meant currency prices were heading for much higher to expanded ranges. I now know what high and lows means and forecast 1 year ahead. My speculation to factor weekly totals now is currency prices are heading to small range conditions.

 

Further, Signal/ Noise Ratio Vs Variation equates to 1.98 Vs 0.50. The Signal is perfect and high Vs its 50 % Variation. We are dead on track to report profit on 50% of all traded pips.

 

Weekly Trade Analysis

 

Targets are never the issue to trades and as I reported with the 2012 trades, targets are written in mathematical stone.
Entries however is the real test to successful trading. Correct entries to targets never leaves pips on the table.
Given 10 traders on Sunday to the same currency, heard is this, 5 longs and 5 shorts. Well given the crop of today’s traders, this is exactly what is supposed to be heard.

 

Factually, longs, shorts and entries are determined by location to the weekly close price. Most close prices in any week are located in an equilibrium or neutral location. This means the traded price on Sunday is untouchable. Certain weeks and particular currency pairs are located in non neutral positions. Now we have a traded price ready to go.

 

Overall, the vast majority of currency prices sit in neutral positions all week, especially EUR and this is why its imperative to wait on the entry price. Every now and then, a particular currency pair’s price may not meet its entry price. The pair then doesn’t trade and excluded from weekly trade consideration.

 

Entries

 

Most entries in any given week are perfect to near perfect. 2 entries are always offered specifically to cover fully the neutral zone parameters.

 

Missed entriies may miss by as high as 150 pips but this is specific to the currency pair such as GBP and CAD or possibly JPY cross pairs. Never to AUD, NZD and most 0 point currency pairs. A 150 pip miss however is specific to a particular currency pair and not all in any given week.

 

Wide range pairs such as GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD may miss as high as 2 X the 150 to GBP or 300 pips.

 

A missed entry means the traded price went to the extreme. USD/CAD and GBP/USD last week for example.
Overall relationship works as this. If for example, GBP/USD trades to extremes then cross pairs trade to perfect entries.

 

GBP/USD Vs GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD and GBP/AUD. And vice versa. if GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD or GBP/AUD trades to extremes then GBP/USD entries are perfect.

 

As stated many times, weekly trades are the most extremely difficult to perfect Vs daily and long term targets. The amount of time I spend on weekly trades is extraordinary. But no different to 2012.

 

Overall, a missed entry traded to extremes is an opportunity for free money and a free trade. Its a literal market gift. The key and what is known is the location at all times to the price. This is known every price point and extreme on Sunday before 1 pip is traded.

 

Most important to a currency price path is not all exchange rate points are the same. Certain exchange rates are supports, or resistance, or vital MA break points or dead neutral points or range points. Vital exchange rate points must be known in advance to any trade, daily or weekly.

 

What may account for a missed entry is another currency pair off kilter to its price and possibly to its underlying currency pair such as GBP/USD Vs GBP/NZD. Understand this, a currency price is never correct. EUR/AUD for example at 1.7000’s should trade at 1.5900’s to be correct.

 

Targets

A weekly target price is the point at correct alignment. But only to the weekly alignment and not its longer term target. EUR/AUD maybe aligned at its weekly 1.6900’s but not to its correct alignment at 1.5900;s. GBP/USD may align at say 1.2300’s but not to its long term correct alignment at 1.3400;s.

I might follow up further to why a missed entry. Understand this, a 3 vs 3 math view. Forward prices and interest rates.
As usual the key to successful trading is understanding but far more than entry = target and profit.

Brian Twomey

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