Weekly Trades: USD/PLN and USD/RON

USD/PLN

Short 4.2160 and 4.2426 to target 4.0963. Short below 4.0831 to target 4.0166.

USD/PLN for the week is currently oversold and sits on solid supports at 3.8828 and 3.8426. Overall, USD/PLN is heading much lower.

USD/RON

Long 4.3857 and 4.3738 to target 4.3977. Long above 4.4096 to target 4.4454. Short 4.4454 to target 4.4215.

 

Brian Twomey

Weekly Trades: USD/JPY, CHF/JPY, EUR/CAD, AUD/CAD

USD/JPY from its 106.87 close resides just above solid and multi year supports at 106.53 and 106.04. A break of 106.04 then long term targets at the multi year range lows becomes 102.00’s. USD/JPY higher however contains many break point hurdles beginning at 107.89 then 108.26, 108.99, 109.19 and 109.67.

Overall ranges are contained from 106.04 to 109.19 and 109.67. USD/JPY at 106.87 trades at its extremes from its price driver at 109.19. At extremes informs 106.04 lacks any chance to break anytime soon. The lower USD/JPY trades only enhances its extremes and offers to not only trade higher but skyrocket higher.

Seen from USD/JPY currently is about a 100 to 150 pip range yet overall ranges are compressing by the week.
USD/JPY at 109.19 and 109.67 is matched by EUR/USD inability to move higher unless 1.1196 breaks. EUR/USD’s 1.1196 overhead has been dropping by the week over many, many months. The week of Januray 4 for example, current 1.1196 was 1.1280. Due to the slow weekly drops to overall price drivers, both USD/JPY and EUR/USD currently engage in a simultaneous race to the bottom. This situation cannot hold in perpetuity as the logjam must eventually break and I would look to EUR/USD higher as EUR/USD not only has ability to move upward but ranges allow for a move higher.

USD/JPY 106.87 close is an interesting number as CHF/JPY main break point for lower is located at 106.87. CHF/JPY retains the same predicament as USD/JPY to weekly range compression. USD/JPY at least contains a 100 -150 pip latitude to its ranges while CHF/JPY is surrounded by many and massive break points.

Lower and multi year supports for CHF/JPY are located ay 109.23, 110.65 then 106.87 and 106.09. To move higher and target 112.00’s, CHF/JPY must break 111.45, 111.53, 111.88 and 111.93. For CHF/JPY at 112.00’s now reaches the apex to its 20 year range tops. CHF/JPY lacks ability to trade above 112.00’s.

EUR/CAD at 1.5400’s is massively overbought. Long term target for EUR/CAD is 1.4882 however current solid supports reside at 1.4968 and 1.4954. Typical AUD/CAD trades within a 300 pip range from 0.9228 to 0.8913. At 0.9200’s represent extremes and not expected to break anytime soon while a break of 0.8913 informs not only lower but AUD/USD much lower.

EUR/CAD offers a good trade while AUD/CAD offers about a 100 pip trade. CHF/JPY will struggle while USD/JPY offers a decent weekly trade. Attraction to EUR/CAD for this week is USD/CAD and CAD/JPY ranges again are extremely wide. More importantly CAD/JPY ranges finally match USD/CAD. Over many months, CAD/JPY was contained Vs USD/CAD. Explains CAD/JPY lackluster performance over many months. This week, both will trade as equals.

The Trades

USD/JPY

Long 106.71 and 106.55 to target 107.72. Long above 107.89 to target 108.55.

CHF/JPY

Short 111.66 and 111.98 to target 111.17. Short below 111.01 to target 110.35.

EUR/CAD

Short 1.5495 and 1.5504 to target 1.5173. Short 1.5115 to target 1.5028.

AUD/CAD

Short 0.9072 and 0.9098 to target 0.8966. Short below 0.8913 to target 0.8855.

 

Brian Twomey