Weekly Trade Analysis May 11-16

Purpose of this post is to analyze further weekly entries under new found research. And targets to some degree although targets is never a problem. 2 points to entries and targets is currency prices and I suspect all market prices deeply love extremes.

Next missed entries are actually greater profit opportunities however the purpose here and to my trade recommendation is to hit entries perfect to near perfect. Over years, its pretty much accomplished. Yes we have our crazy weeks but for the most part and minus a crazy week now and then, perfection has achieved.

If we take the EURCAD public trade as the guide, we know this. Missed entry is as much as 150 pips for low range currencies and about 300 for wide range currencies. An entry miss is normally specific to a particular currency pair rather than many currency pairs in any given week.

EUR/CAD and known over many years is options exist for missed entries. Add 1 lot and trade to break even or trade to target. May take an extra day or 2 to achieve target which means trade runs into the next week. EUR/CAD for example and this example serves as valid for all trades, EUR/CAD achieved target. The extra day or 2 hold resulted in 150 ish pips for each lot.

Main point is no losses. This is vital as losses means must earn back something like 2 times profit in order to break even. Losses sends accounts to destruction.

2nd is the option to trade to entry. EUR/USD last week traded perfectly to entry at 1.0831 and this week traded to entry at 1.0780. Then reverse the trade long to target as entry achieved.

Next is what I term market periods. GBP is the only example in the past 3- 4 years and its rare to see. GBP and all GBP pairs traded weekly to extremes. GBP/USD every week went from 1.2900’s to 1.1900’s by constant drops every week. All we needed to see was 2 or 3 weeks of this and we refrained from trading GBP until trading again became normal.

Trading normal is key. Specific to new research is currencies trade normal. its an extremely rare time to see currency prices to not trade normal. The instability to currency prices about 1 month ago was an example of non normal. Normal means the entries and targets are within the confines to normal traded markets.

Against 2 entries offered every week is this. Take the GBP/USD and GBP/CHF example. GBP/CHF missed entry by 44 pips Monday yet the trade paid 36 Pips and weekly target failed to achieve so far. On 1 lot 36 pips. By adding 1 lot then the second lot paid 79 pips +36 on the 1st lot for +115 pips.

Obviously we don;t normally live our trading life by missing entries and adding lots. I;m offering what adding 1 lot means and profit potential.

By Trade order to Weekly Rank and Trade Instruction

EUR/USD. No need to highlight as I posted trades up and trades down. Entry was off by 4 pips and target was +3 pips extra.

EUR/JPY. Today is finally extremely close to entry. So target not achieved. Problem is entry was 115.95 for +89 pips and target miss of 24 pips on Monday.

EUR/NZD entry and target was perfect for +306 pips.

EUR/AUD was perfect entry and target for +295 Pips

USD/CAD Monday entry off by + 30 pips and target not achieved but trade paid +62 pips. USD/CAD by Wednesday bolted 80 pips past entry. trade option was open here. Traders with me for a while knew what to do.

CAD/JPY achieved perfect entry Tuesday but only paid +30 pips. CAD/JPY today achieved second entry but only a 40 pip gain. Extremely sad for CAD/JPY performance. Overall option for trade to entry for 50 Pips then reverse long. CAD/JPY was off kilter to USD/CAD prices.

NZD/USD accomplished its mission Monday. Entry off by 23 pips and target achieved for 50 Pips. Next  RBNZ dropped NZD/USD to 0.6000 and recovered 55 pips to 0.6055.

NZD/JPY perfect entry Monday and target off by 17 pips. Trade paid 72 pips. Trade to entry paid about 70 pips.

NZD/CHF entry perfect and target miss Monday by 24 pip and trade paid 48 pips. RBNZ dropped NZDCHF about 80 pips past entry.

AUD/USD 1st leg to trade never traded. 2nd leg paid 59 pips.

AUD/CHF Entry miss by 15 pips, target achieved for +62 pips. 2nd leg entry perfect. target not achieved and trade runs +48 pips for +110 pips.

AUD/JPY Entry today within 7 pips. Trade runs 36 pips. Trade to entry paid 56 pips.

Point of note is below USD/CAD from overall 12 pair rankings trades paid less and wasn’t smooth. We want easy and many pips.

GBP is separately Ranked.

GBP/AUD off from 2nd entry by 34 pips, target not achieved and trade runs +114 pips.Trade to entry option +218 pips.

GBP/NZD entry perfect, Target achieved for +225 pips. 2nd leg target not achieved but within 37 pips as of this writing. trade runs +87 pips. For total +312 pips.

GBP/CHF as mentioned +79 pips target not achieved. Horrible trade overall.

GBP/CAD Entry Monday achieved perfectly, target achieved for +81 pips. Second exact same trade materialized Tuesday. A possible 3d trade materialized Thursday as entry was off by 24 pips.

GBP/JPY Missed Monday entry by 11 pips, target not achieved and trade +108 pips. GBP/JPY then dropped bout 163 pips to below entry. Overall, JPY cross pairs been very disappointing over last 3 weeks

GBP/USD entry achieved Monday and +70 pip, target not achieved. Short to entry paid about 150 pips.

 

What type of market trades now. Targets not hitting as normal and entries are good. Based on trade instruction to entries and trades, whenever the entry hits then it appears mandatory to take the trade.  Failure to miss the trade means may not see anther trade unless a deep entry miss materializes. This doesn’t happen often. Then if an entry not taken, only option is wait for target to hit then take the trade but targets haven’t been hitting as outlined.

 

Brian Twomey