March Long Term Targets and Forecasts

March 2020 Long Term Targets

Posted on March 11, 2020

And so March begins in 2020 as was the same story in 2018. Trades in March 2020 as in 2018 is the single focus to reversals, trends and great price movements.

Targets achieved destinations in 2018. Destinations means alignment, rightsize or my term, settled price. A settled price never rests as it must by math standards achieve its next target point. By math standards it must also return to its target points.
Distant points are defined as 300, 600 and for a full currency price cycle, 2500 pips. Any price outside of 3, 6 and 2500 are non existent prices, ghost prices. Ghost prices are not only easy profit opportunities but seen often.

AUD/JPY at 67.00’s and 68.00 are ghost prices, AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF currently trade all time, 60 year lows. Both prices are ghost prices and don’t exist. EUR/CHF below 1.0300’s trades ghost prices and below 60 year lows. Below 1.0300;s, EUR/CHF prices don’t exist. CAD/JPY at 73.00’s trades ghost prices and below 60 year lows. Below 73.00’s, prices don’t exist.

2019 is considered the out year to the cycle and the out year to any cycle as few easy long term target trades become available.
March 2020 targets vs 2018 targets

Wide range currency pairs never contain a specific target as their overall purpose is to forever range trade. Wide range pairs maintain a check on the shorter range currecny pairs, GBPUSD Vs GBP/NZD for example. March 2020, many trade above tops and now offer good trade opportunities.

AUD and GBP/JPY offer best trade opportunities as most distant targets in relation to 19 currency pairs.

EUR/USD 2020 target 1.1405 Vs 2018 at 1.1600’s. Took 2 years for 1.1600;s to drop 200 pips to 1.1400’s. EURUSD next big move should be much lower and the move is imminent.

EUR/NZD. Top 1.7600’s. Long way to drop. Wide range currency.

GBP/CHF 2020 target 1.2879 Vs 2018 at 1.3200’s. Target = 800 pips.

GBP/CAD 1.8200 top, long way to drop for wide range currency.

GBP/USD. 2020 target 1.3385 vs 2018 at 1.3600, 1.3800 then 1.3400’s. Target 1.3400’s achieved. 1.3385 = 400 pips from 1.2900’s.

AUD/USD. 2020 target 0.7300 Vs 2018 at 0.7800’s. An 800 pip target.

AUD/JPY 2020 target 79.00’s Vs 2018 at 83.00’s. An 1100 pip target.

USD/JPY. Lacks a target yet ranges from 102 to 109.00’s. The 2018 target at 100 bounced from 104.00’s. USD/JPY is a horrible currency pair and hardly traded.

EUR/JPY 2020 target 123.00’s Vs 2018 at 125. A 500 pip target.

GBP/JPY. 2020 target 144 vs 2018 at 147.00’s. Target achieved. An 800 pip target.

EUR/AUD. 2020 target 1.5900’s Vs 2018 at 1.5900’s. No changes. A 1400 pip target.

GBP/AUD. 2020 top 1.9400’s Vs 2018 top at 2.0019. a 600 pip drop.

USD/CAD. 2020 target 1.2900’s, Vs 2018 at 1.2800’s. No changes. An 800 pip target.

CAD/JPY. 2020 target 84.00’s Vs 2018 at 86.00’s, a 200 pip drop. A 900 pip target.

NZD/JPY. 2020 target 72.00’s Vs 2018 at 72.00’s. No changes. A 500 pip target.

NZD/USD. 2020 target 0.6700’s vs 2018 at 0.7000’s. A 400 Pip target.

AUD/CHF. 2020 target 0.7000’s. An 800 pip target.

NZD/CHF. 2020 target 0.6600’s. A 700 pip target.

EUR/CHF 60 year lows below 1.0300’s.

As targets achieved in 2018, reversals are now seen as 300 and 600 pips to begin. Targets won’t change until destinations are complete. 300 pips are fairly standard as forever price targets while 600 approaches max peaks. Longest trades view as 2500 pips and 2500 is also a currency market price standard. 2500 is viewed when targets complete to next price targets generally over a 2 year period.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and ECB

Currency markets viewed from March and a 3 month span revealed AUD/USD and cross pairs achieved near all time lows and overall as stated in March had the best trades for profits on a long term hold period. AUD/JPY and AUD/CHF as stated in March for example achieved prices under 67 year lows. This means March prices didn’t exist on record.

What did that say for AUD/USD. More specifically as written many times EUR/AUD achieved 1.6000’s target. The implication is AUD/USD top is now here. However the 0.7300 target remains open. This informs EUR/AUD still has much downside to go and 1.5726 is a viable option at this writing provided 0.7300’s achieves destinations.

A long term target means a currency price must achieve its targets and doesn’t have a choice.

As AUD embarked on a 1500 pip rampage higher from the instability period in March from 0.5500’s lows, all AUD currency pairs became outliers to its counterparts as AUD was first to trade above its vital MA’s. EUR, NZD and GBP were forced to trade higher but also to correspond to correct prices in relation to AUD.

GBP/USD was clearly the holdout for the past 3 months as only this week did 1.2428 finally break and traded to 1.2600’s. Now in agreement are EUR, NZD, GBP and USD/CAD on the break lower at 1.3800’s.

Currency prices are now in huge reversal periods as EUR/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD are deeply overbought. While USD/CAD is deeply oversold.

EUR/USD

Recall vital points above at 1.1183, 1.1212 and 1.1277.

Understand in relation to daily vital points as offered by the ECB, central banks are forced to follow interest rate formulas to price currencies for day trades. Doesn’t matter to overbought or oversold for central banks. It only matters to price the daily currencies correctly to interest rates.

The new changes adopted by the ECB in 2015/2016 allowed the ECB to garner greater control to their currency prices by elimination of the USA 8:30 am time slot.

The price of the daily interest rates is then designed to force the exchange rate to move. This forces not only interest and exchange rates to move but all markets in relation to the specific nation because interest rates price all financial instruments including bond yields.

Central banks daily view currency prices for their own exchange rates in near 2000 to 2500 pips. The EUR/USD as viewed by the ECB is seen in ranges from 1.6600 highs achieved in 2008 to right at 0.7500 lows. That’s 9000 pips. For trading purposes however 9000 pips breaks down to allowable movements at about 2500 pips in 1 direction then a massive correction is seen before the price can embark on it’s original course.

AUD at 1500 pips achieved 1/3 its allowable distance.

Here’s today’s EUR/USD day trade 1.1214, 1.1221, 1.1227, 1.1236, 1.1249, 1.1256 and 1.1264. EUR/USD traded to 1.1227 which means it didn’t travel anywhere in relation to 1.1264.

EUR/USD from 1.1212 to 1.1277 is in no man’s land and is untouchable. Only on a break of 1.1212 and 1.1183 will EUR head lower.

Daily trades and traded twice daily are all factored and traded exclusively by interest rates since 2015 /2016 to enter and exit exactly as the central banks offer.

 

Brian Twomey