The purpose to highlight 2018 Vs 2020 targets was not only about targets but to introduce the possible 2 year currency cycle and the time to unfold and trade during the 2nd quarter every 2 years. The 2nd quarter as in Feb to May or March to June and vital to understand the 3 month time span.
As mentioned many times, due to trade calculations by pen, paper and calculator, extensive records are maintained and used for research purposes to assist in streamlining calculations and targets. Its been a 17 year process.
During the 2nd quarter and 3 month period of 2018, all cross pairs was the trade to enter. It didn”t matter which cross pair as long as the trade was a cross pair. Throw a dart at a wall of cross pairs and wherever the dart lands then that cross pair was a viable trade to profit 100’s of easy pips.
In the 2nd quarter of 2018, over 35 cross pair trades were posted and all targets achieved for minimum 5 and 800 pip targets. All entries were near perfect except AUD/NZD. When the 21 cross pairs from G28 were posted then was posted unusual pairs such as CNY/JPY, KRW/JPY, PLN and others. This is an academic inspection rather than trade success story.
Main point to 2018 and cross pairs was not only was the trade in cross pairs but all pairs achieved long term targets. Many targets were 5 and 800 pips. GBP/JPY was 1000.
While the cross pairs were on the move in 2018, the USD and Non USD pairs were dead and experienced little movements. USD V Non USD as in EUR/USD, GBP/USD vs USD/CAD and USD/JPY.
The 2018 presumption was cross pairs were the single driver to USD and Non USD pairs. In order for cross pairs to move to such wide distances then USD V Non USD had to trade dead. Then the opposite assumption scenario held the question as USD Vs Non would experience wide movements and cross pairs remained dead movers. Trades then lived in an either / or universe.
Why to the scenario in either/ or as the trade is because once long term targets achieve destinations then prices rest and movements are slim to none over a long period.
The 2nd quarter of 2019 came along and the quarter was dead to both cross pairs and USD V Non. Presuppositions had to wait another year.
The 2nd quarter of 2020 and current period experienced wide movements to both cross pairs and USD V Non. Current quarter also experienced a period of unusual price instability. More importantly is the entire 2nd quarter traded under instability and remains unstable.
While cross pairs achieved targets and a rested price in 2018, it took 2 years for cross pairs to again trade to a long term target. This means not only 2 years to the 2 year cycle but it takes 2 years for the long term target trade to unfold in order to enter the trade.
The assumption to 2018 and USD V Non as dead movers is the vast majority of pairs weren’t far from long term targets. AUD/USD was clearly the outlier. Possibly it took 2 years for USD and NON to trade to its furthest distance in order to enter a long term trade. But it was first necessary to allow the cross pairs to achieve targets then USD V Non would answer the question how far should USD V NOn trade its greatest distance in relation to cross pairs. This may explain why 2019 2nd quarter failed to experience 2018 and 2020 big moves.
The research argument to this post is every 2 years in the 2nd quarter is the best time to easily profit from trades. The 2018 trades were truly easy and profitable. A trader can earn enough money in 2nd quarter trades to sit out the year if they desired.
Next, 2nd quarter 2020 was again an excellent time to trade as movements were extremely wide. The problem with the current period is its unstable price time and lasted fully 3 months. This quarter was not the time to trade to targets but the time to trade to greatest distances and a complete reversal from 2018. Excellent time to trade in hindsight was correct for the majority of the quarter except for about 4 weeks and the current week.
The concept to instability affected all currency pairs rather than a few. Normally in any given week, 1 or 2 currency pairs may travel a few pips off course but those trades are easily repaired. We’ve seen weeks when many currency pairs traveled off course. No such concept exits to our trades particularly over the past about 4 years.
For instability despite wide movements means USD V Non and cross pairs are truly off kilter to each other and trade at its widest distances. This can only mean great trades in the future as prices again achieve normality. How long for normality, 2 years then 2nd quarter 2022 becomes another great time to trade easiest trades ?
The next view must be a comparison from 2nd quarter 2016 to 2018 in order to understand current 2020 and 2nd quarter instability.