Commercial Paper Rates and Market

Most important  interest rate is commercial paper because its a maximum rate of 270 days. Its shortest term rate and changes daily.  Fed Funds rate is a secondary rate compared to commercial Paper. Commercial paper rates are used to build yield and interest rate curves due to Commercial Paper as a primary rate.

Watch Commercial Paper rates for Fed interest rate changes and not Fed Funds. Book this concept under market structure.

Non Financial rates are finance rates for inside the United States money markets while financials are overseas rates and used mainly by Corporations. Non financial rates are used by many, utility companies, mutual funds, banks, insurance companies and many others.

I use Commercial paper Rates daily for day trades in currencies as these are mandatory and most vital rates of all interest rates. They allow perfect entries and multiple trades per currency pair.

Here’s rates

Rates

 

Period AA nonfinancial A2/P2 nonfinancial
1-day 7-day 15-day 30-day 60-day 90-day 1-day 7-day 15-day 30-day 60-day 90-day
June 2 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.13 0.19 0.23 0.27 0.28 0.21 0.32 0.47 0.60
June 3 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.10 0.14 0.18 0.25 0.38 0.30 0.35 0.60 0.63
June 4 0.07 0.06 n.a. 0.09 0.13 0.18 0.25 0.28 0.24 0.91 0.49 0.65
June 5 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.14 0.19 0.24 0.21 0.24 0.30 0.42 0.52
June 8 0.07 0.10 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.20 0.27 0.22 0.25 0.33 0.44 0.53

Outstanding Levels Seasonally Adjusted

Period AA financial AA asset-backed
1-day 7-day 15-day 30-day 60-day 90-day 1-day 7-day 15-day 30-day 60-day 90-day
June 2 0.06 0.07 n.a. 0.11 n.a. 0.23 0.12 0.15 0.15 0.17 0.21 0.23
June 3 0.06 0.08 n.a. n.a. 0.11 0.15 0.12 0.15 0.16 0.18 0.18 0.26
June 4 0.05 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.16 0.20 0.25
June 5 0.06 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.12 0.14 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.24
June 8 0.07 0.07 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.12 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.21 0.25

 

Outstanding Levels

Not Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of dollars

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Period Total Nonfinancial Financial Asset-
backed
Other
Total Domestic Foreign Total Domestic Foreign
Monthly-end levels
2020-Jan. 1,136.2 325.4 244.0 81.5 567.7 225.6 342.1 241.7 1.4
Feb. 1,127.4 315.9 233.8 82.2 564.8 217.7 347.0 245.6 1.1
Mar. 1,092.5 308.0 233.2 74.8 516.9 210.5 306.4 266.5 1.2
Apr. 1,090.1 279.7 209.7 70.0 536.9 205.3 331.7 271.2 2.2
May 1,042.8 256.3 184.2 72.2 516.8 200.4 316.5 267.2 2.4
Weekly (Wednesday) levels
May 6 1,069.0 258.7 195.4 63.2 537.3 220.6 316.6 270.9 2.3
May 13 1,061.7 258.4 192.3 66.1 531.9 216.3 315.6 269.0 2.4
May 20 1,057.7 255.4 184.7 70.7 533.7 214.8 318.9 266.1 2.5
May 27 1,051.0 257.1 184.9 72.2 529.8 208.7 321.1 261.7 2.4
June 3 1,037.2 252.4 178.0 74.4 522.0 207.0 315.0 260.5 2.4

 

Not seasonally adjusted

Billions of dollars

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Period Total Nonfinancial Financial Asset-
backed
Other
Total Domestic Foreign Total Domestic Foreign
Monthly-end levels
2020-Jan. 1,149.8 307.2 222.1 85.1 587.5 240.3 347.1 253.9 1.3
Feb. 1,136.2 322.8 235.4 87.4 561.4 227.0 334.4 250.8 1.2
Mar. 1,088.8 307.0 243.1 63.9 508.3 210.1 298.2 272.4 1.1
Apr. 1,086.5 299.0 223.9 75.1 514.1 217.8 296.2 271.2 2.2
May 1,045.9 280.3 197.9 82.4 499.7 205.9 293.8 263.5 2.4
Weekly (Wednesday) levels
May 6 1,068.8 296.3 217.4 79.0 501.4 210.1 291.3 268.8 2.2
May 13 1,064.8 288.4 206.3 82.2 505.1 213.5 291.7 268.8 2.4
May 20 1,079.1 296.1 209.3 86.8 515.0 218.2 296.7 265.6 2.4
May 27 1,054.6 283.8 200.3 83.5 505.8 212.2 293.6 262.7 2.4
June 3 1,040.8 281.3 198.7 82.6 495.5 205.4 290.2 261.6 2.3

 

Brian Twomey

Commercial Paper Rates

Most important  interest rate is Commercial Paper because its a maximum rate of 270 days. Its shortest term rate and changes daily.  Fed Funds rate is a secondary rate compared to Commercial Paper. Commercial Paper rates are used to build yield and interest rate curves due to Commercial Paper as a primary and shortest rate.

Commercial Paper market is easily a trillion dollar market while Fed Funds trades billions.

Watch Commercial Paper rates for Fed interest rate changes and not Fed Funds. Book this concept under market structure.

Non Financial rates are finance rates for inside the United States money markets while financials are overseas rates and used mainly by Corporations. Non financial rates are used by many: utility companies, mutual funds, banks, insurance companies and many others.

I use Commercial paper Rates daily for day trades in currencies as these are mandatory and most vital rates of all interest rates. They allow for perfect accuracy for entries and multiple day trades per currency pair.

Here’s rates

Rates

 

Period AA nonfinancial A2/P2 nonfinancial
1-day 7-day 15-day 30-day 60-day 90-day 1-day 7-day 15-day 30-day 60-day 90-day
June 2 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.13 0.19 0.23 0.27 0.28 0.21 0.32 0.47 0.60
June 3 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.10 0.14 0.18 0.25 0.38 0.30 0.35 0.60 0.63
June 4 0.07 0.06 n.a. 0.09 0.13 0.18 0.25 0.28 0.24 0.91 0.49 0.65
June 5 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.14 0.19 0.24 0.21 0.24 0.30 0.42 0.52
June 8 0.07 0.10 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.20 0.27 0.22 0.25 0.33 0.44 0.53

Outstanding Levels Seasonally Adjusted

Period AA financial AA asset-backed
1-day 7-day 15-day 30-day 60-day 90-day 1-day 7-day 15-day 30-day 60-day 90-day
June 2 0.06 0.07 n.a. 0.11 n.a. 0.23 0.12 0.15 0.15 0.17 0.21 0.23
June 3 0.06 0.08 n.a. n.a. 0.11 0.15 0.12 0.15 0.16 0.18 0.18 0.26
June 4 0.05 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.16 0.20 0.25
June 5 0.06 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.12 0.14 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.24
June 8 0.07 0.07 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.12 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.21 0.25

 

Outstanding Levels

Not Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of dollars

Make Full Screen

Period Total Nonfinancial Financial Asset-
backed
Other
Total Domestic Foreign Total Domestic Foreign
Monthly-end levels
2020-Jan. 1,136.2 325.4 244.0 81.5 567.7 225.6 342.1 241.7 1.4
Feb. 1,127.4 315.9 233.8 82.2 564.8 217.7 347.0 245.6 1.1
Mar. 1,092.5 308.0 233.2 74.8 516.9 210.5 306.4 266.5 1.2
Apr. 1,090.1 279.7 209.7 70.0 536.9 205.3 331.7 271.2 2.2
May 1,042.8 256.3 184.2 72.2 516.8 200.4 316.5 267.2 2.4
Weekly (Wednesday) levels
May 6 1,069.0 258.7 195.4 63.2 537.3 220.6 316.6 270.9 2.3
May 13 1,061.7 258.4 192.3 66.1 531.9 216.3 315.6 269.0 2.4
May 20 1,057.7 255.4 184.7 70.7 533.7 214.8 318.9 266.1 2.5
May 27 1,051.0 257.1 184.9 72.2 529.8 208.7 321.1 261.7 2.4
June 3 1,037.2 252.4 178.0 74.4 522.0 207.0 315.0 260.5 2.4

 

Not seasonally adjusted

Billions of dollars

Make Full Screen

Period Total Nonfinancial Financial Asset-
backed
Other
Total Domestic Foreign Total Domestic Foreign
Monthly-end levels
2020-Jan. 1,149.8 307.2 222.1 85.1 587.5 240.3 347.1 253.9 1.3
Feb. 1,136.2 322.8 235.4 87.4 561.4 227.0 334.4 250.8 1.2
Mar. 1,088.8 307.0 243.1 63.9 508.3 210.1 298.2 272.4 1.1
Apr. 1,086.5 299.0 223.9 75.1 514.1 217.8 296.2 271.2 2.2
May 1,045.9 280.3 197.9 82.4 499.7 205.9 293.8 263.5 2.4
Weekly (Wednesday) levels
May 6 1,068.8 296.3 217.4 79.0 501.4 210.1 291.3 268.8 2.2
May 13 1,064.8 288.4 206.3 82.2 505.1 213.5 291.7 268.8 2.4
May 20 1,079.1 296.1 209.3 86.8 515.0 218.2 296.7 265.6 2.4
May 27 1,054.6 283.8 200.3 83.5 505.8 212.2 293.6 262.7 2.4
June 3 1,040.8 281.3 198.7 82.6 495.5 205.4 290.2 261.6 2.3

 

Brian Twomey

S&P’s and Gold

The S&P’s not only achieved overbought status but now sits overbought in the stratosphere and the recommendation is not 1 point long until the imminent deep correction is over. Overbought pertain to all averages we follow dating at least 10 years.
The massive top is located at 3233.99. Driving the S&P’s is not only the break at 2123.77 but since 2018, shortest averages drove prices higher.

The main average holding current prices is 2633.99 then 2454.55. Below 2633.93 targets 2577.85 2531.39, 2516.64 and 2504.29.
Due to the status to overbought, a long red candle event is expected rather than a slow grinding correction.

Targets are located at 2736.59 and 2661.62. Targets achieve destinations by breaks lower at 3054.55, 2913.95 and 2845.35. Note the target at 2736 and 600 points. This has been the norm to past long candle events since 2018 and due to highest price extremes achieved.

The 600 figure is not only a normalized number to financial instruments and especially currencies but 600 points factors to a 500 pip correction to 2736 and 100 points are unaccounted. The 100 points are free money points.

Most comfortable trading location for the S&P’s is in the 2500.00’s and a great location to begin the next leg higher. Overall problem with the S&P’s is lack of trading range. If the S&P’s were classified a a currency, the apt name would be USD/CHF, EUR/GBP or EUR/CHF.

 

Gold

If Gold was classified as a currency, EUR/GBP would become a better trade as Gold severely lacks trading ranges and its ranges are far below the S&P’s. Gold overall is a horrible trading instrument and its the new interest rate revamp by central banks that forced Gold into tiny ranges as opposed to the old days when Gold contained wide movement ability. Gold won’t ever recover to again trade to its glory days.

Holding Gold prices currently are averages at 1300’s across the board. All averages are deeply overbought. Both Gold and the S&P’s trade above 5 year averages and this includes the DXY. The issue is a mis location problem as the S&P’s are classified a a risk asset and it trades along side non risk assets DXY and Gold. This point was highlighted in past posts and as can be seen the mis location problem never corrected.

The 2 driving averages are 1566.34 and 1418.59. Both are fairly mid range overbought from 1695.55. Longer term averages are problems and deeply overbought.

Shorts begin at 1777.03, 1812.21, 1840.89, 1861.39 and 1925.35 but 1925 is not expected. All are extremes

Targets are located at 1664.70 and deep caution at 1587.61.

If 1566.34 ever break then targets become 1528.08, 1490.27, 1467.99 and 1462.60.

Overall trade strategy for Gold and the S&P’s is short for the long haul until targets achieve destinations.

 

Brian Twomey