WTI: Levels, Ranges and Targets

When last forcaste WTI in March 2020, the target was 49.89 at the current price of 30.06. WTI in March was oversold at 30.00’s and deeply oversold at 20.00’s. Longs were recommended as the only way forward.

Crisis then hit the Oil patch and WTI traded to near 0. Against a 49.89 target and not expected lows at 0, a rare opportunity existed to add to longs.

As mentioned is March, The range drop informed the WTI price was off kilter to its ranges. This means ability to a wandering price. WTI wandered from deeply oversold 20.00’s to 0 and forecast by the long view from June 2019 to March 2020.

WTI’s main problem since at least June 2019 is a tiny range condition and it doesn’t have ability to trade a normal price range. Best range today is about 13 points at its maximum. USD/CHF and EUR/GBP can outperform monthly WTI in 10 minutes.

WTI traded highs at 41.21 from lows at 0 and 9 points to target.

In March, 58.59 was the must break point to target upper 60.00’s to 67.00’s. The averages since dropped from March.

Must break points are now located at 45.91, 51.58, 52.97, 53.73 and 55.38. March averages in comparison as follows: 54.33, 55.16 and 57.29. In 3 months, vital averages dropped roughly 3 points.

From current 40.96, WTI now approaches vital 45.91. From oversold in March, WTI today is fairly range bound.

Strategy moving forward is long from 32.36 and 39.77 to target 40.49, 42.66 and caution at 43.20.

A break at 55.38 is required to target 59.45, 62.67, 64.79, 66.17 and 67.55.

 

Brian Twomey

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