24, 50, 100 and 200 Hour Moving Averages

120 trading days exist per week = 5 day average.

Every trading week begins at a 2 day average and grows by Friday to a full 5 day average. An average = simple. An average requires price data to move and why its called simple.

Averages from Fix prices is mandatory not close prices or averages will mis align to centralbank prices.

Monday =2 day average

Tuesday =3 day

Wednesday and Thursday =4 day

Friday =5 day.

Monday then begins 2 day average again and the process repeats.

A popular bank called Dukascopy posts everyday on popular website  its fx forecasts and is wrong everyday it posts to levels, targets and direction. Matches a Glorified retail trader and garners front page status due to bank Name.

Bank uses 50, 100 and 200 Hour MA’s. What are they.

200 Hour MA, barely 8 day average or 192 hours, but an uneven Average

100 Hour MA =Barely 4 day average, but uneven average

60 Hour MA = 2 1/2 day average and uneven again

50 Hour MA= 2 1/4 Day average and uneven

All uneven averages, not good

Difference between 50 and 60 day Average? 1/4 day, or useless

From 50 to 200 = 2 – 8 Day, Duka bank is useless.

24 Hour Averages

I saw a 24 hour average used by a guy but its wrong.

A 24 hour average must start at either the China Open or by the Fed interest rate release in early NY afternoons. I send AUD trade information every trading day by the Fed interest rate release every afternoon and its reliable. I find all trade information from the FED on a 24 hour basis extremely reliable.

The China Open is used to cover actually 11 hours of trading from 9:30 pm EST  to the next day ECB at 10:00 am. So 2 averages are running, the 24 hour and 11 hour.

What is actually known from the China open is the support and resistance levels as China might or may not be different from the Fed support and resistance points. With a change of exchange rates from the Fed to China, support or resistance levels normally change and it must be known to most important points to trade for day trades. Accuracy is vital.

AUD, NZD and Asia pairs are quite different from a day trade perspective and for accuracy. The FED at 4:15 afternoons is good but not perfectly accurate.

Why is because Asia pairs, AUD and NZD change interest rates after the China open. A change in interest rates changes support and resistance points. AUD and NZD must record and enter new interest rates then factor the exchange rate for accurate support and resistance points. This is done every morning.

When AUD, NZD and Asia pairs trade in Europe and America trading, Asia markets are closed so support and resistance points are good until the next interest rate release after the China open. its a true 24 hour indicator but the times must factor correctly or support and resistance points won’t be accurate.

Many Fix prices are seen every trading day, 13 are major fixes then comes interest and exchange rate fixes directly from the respective central bank. Each fix price is different and its imperative to trade day trades by the correct Fix price and to know the exact support and resistance points. Its a full time job but it depends to trade correct times.

So a blanket, all encompassing 24 hour MA is not reliable as a trade indicator. Because support and resistance points are not known. Then comes ranges. Every currency pair has a different range and ranges may change. Current ranges are fairly stable for day trades but 1 month or 1 week  from today is not known to ranges.

Fx is not an easy job as much must be known. And this takes many years to truly understand what’s going on, how to trade and the many changes required throughout any given trading day. My estimation is 1% have the knowledge, and 99% don’t care outside of entry and target. But the 1% spent the many years to understand.

 

Brian Twomey

 

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