Weekly Trade Results: GBP/CAD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD


As posted Sunday

GBPCAD

Short Anywhere or 1.7498 and 1.7509 to target 1.7291.

Highs 1.7550, Lows 1.7353

Trade Runs +156 pips

AUDUSD

Short anywhere or 0.7381 and 0.7394 to target 0.7163.

Highs 0.7411, Lows 0.7264

Trade Runs +130 pips

USDCAD

Long anywhere or 1.3066 and 1.3044 to target 1.3324.

Lows 1.2994, Highs 1.3164

Trade Runs +170 Pips

3 Trades +456 Pips

                 Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and 9 Currency Pair Forecasts

Upon the new 3 month review to my long term model that encompasses our 18 currency pairs traded weekly, nothing changed to EUR/USD.

In June. EUR/USD big break point to trade higher was located at 1.1987, today the big break point remains 1.1987.
Above 1.1987 then next comes the 10 year average at 1.2175 and a break targets 1.2400 to 1.2600’s. However, a total of 10 averages ranging from 1.2400’s to 1.2600’s face EUR/USD above 1.2175. At 1.2600’s represents top of the range to my averages dating to 1999.

The EUR/USD rise from 1.1200’s to 1.1900’s in 15 days was the result of not only a break of its high/ low point at 1.1200’s but the break higher of the 5 year average at 1.1288. EUR/USD was given the green light to move significantly higher.

EUR/USD became the first and leader currency to break its 5 year average. Then next was EUR/JPY at 124.00’s, GBP/USD 1.3216, AUD/USD was next to follow at 0.7282 and NZD/USD is close at 0.6806. USD/CAD broke at 1.3190.

Previously, 24 of 28 currency pairs lived for the past 3 and 4 years trading below 5 year averages.

Moving averages don’t change fast enough to consider or allow 1.2175 will break then trade to 1.2400’s to 1.2600’s anytime soon.

Due to 1.1987 and 1.2175, our strategy changed from long only to short only against a target to 1.1400’s.

Further Reviews

GBP/USD. Big break for lower is located at 1.3352 and this line broke Wednesday. Above 1.3352 then massive resistance is located at 1.3800’s and 1.3900’s. Below then next is the 5 year average now at 1.3218 then solid supports at 1.2800’s. Note 1.3300 ‘s to 1.3800’s is 500 pips and below 1.3300’s to 1.2800’s is 500 pips. We maintain a long drop strategy.

AUD/USD next big lines above are located at 0.7721 and range top at 0.7838. No changes to 0.7838 over the past 3 years as this line hasn’t changed.

AUD/USD big break lower is located at 0.7371 then the 5 year average at 0.7281 and 0.7050. AUD/USD 0.7371 to 0.7700’s is 400 pips and 0.7371 to 0.7050 is 300 pips.

AUD/JPY. 79.82 Vs 76.38. Above 79.82 targets the 5 year average at 80.46 then 81.33. No significant changes for AUD/JPY over years.

GBP/CAD break 1.7285 then the 5 year average targets 1.7000’s.

GBP/CHF Remains significantly depressed and targets 1.2562 easily. GBP/CHF must break 1.2365 to achieve 1.2500’s. Great currency pair and long drop strategy.

EUR/JPY. Lower must break 124.90, 124.82 and 124.68 to target massive supports at 123.00’s. Above 124.90 then EUR/JPY faces 10 averages from 127.00’s to 130.00’s. Higher must break 126.16. No thrills to EUR/JPY.

GBP/JPY higher must break 144.93 then 146.24 and 146.92. Below 144.93 targets 139.00’s and range bottom at 135.00’s. A far better pair to trade as opposed to EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY. Assumption is NZD/JPY will reveal the same small range movement as AUD/JPY. Meaning MA’s are to close to consider big moves.

Overall and a speculation from 8 currency pairs is currency markets are fairly stable again and prices in a decent equilibrium to ranges from 2 to 500 pips.

Further speculation is big moves will be seen in GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD and GBP/CHF. For JPY cross pairs will suffer except GBP/JPY. For USD/CAD was born a wide movement currency pair and significant moves higher are expected.

 

 

Brian Twomey

 

Weekly Trade Review: 18 Currencies

A vast majority of  weeks over the past 4 ish years, no need exists to check entries, targets and results because currency markets were functioning perfectly. This means perfect entries and no questions to targets. Targets remain valid however despite normal vs Non normal markets. Normal weeks, targets always achieve destinations.

It also means a standard weekly 1000 ish pips per week on 10 and 12 currency pairs and 1000 to 1500 on current 18 currency pairs. The EUR/USD rise from 1.1200  to 1.1900’s in 11 days slightly skewed many currency pair prices for about 3 weeks but markets are pretty much back to normal. How do we know?

Entries informs to everything. and concepts to actual definitions to overbought and oversold.

Remember the standard entry formula to entry extremes 20, 50, 100 and 150. This formula doesn’t change across 28 currency pairs and it doubles easily to EM currency pairs.

Example. EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD contained divergence or a mix match to week’s beginning locations. GBP/NZD this week just achieved entry and EUR/NZD overshot by almost 100 pips. Both are now deeply oversold but both are also now in sync.

NZD/USD not much movement this week despite deep overbought as NZD shot higher by just shy of the 13 pip entry  price and in line to the entry formula. NZD/USD against the falling EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD didn’t have ability to drop until EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD aligned properly., an agreement.

Remember trades are weekly and on the 4th day, look out below NZD/USD.

The opposite is true for GBPCAD in the GBP/USD Vs USD/CAD relationship as no divergence exists between GBP/USD and USD/CAD and this allows movements to GBP/CAD. When divergence exists between GBP/USD and USD/CAD then GBP/CAD trades tiny movements. Applies to EUR/CAD.

All GBP pairs began the week in deep overbought yet continued almost a 100 pip rise. The extra 100 pips are free money given freely by the market. Overall, GBP pairs performed beautifully.

Know and understand price paths and Currency pair price relationships is the overall message.

To targets, the commonality to 18 currency pairs over the past 3 weeks is 100 pip movements. This 100 pips applies and will apply to JPY cross pairs except GBP/JPY.

JPY pairs under performed. Upon inspection to the 3 month review  to 18 currency pairs, JPY pairs are stuck and locked up and down by vital MA’s. The best of the bunch is GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY. while AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY are stiffed.

EUR/USD big break 1.1987 then 10 year average at 1.2175. EUR/USD performed this week perfectly due to 1.1987.

EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD on day 4 are working their way higher to weekly targets upon good entries.

AUD/USD and AUD/CHF were good trades and entries but slight miss to AUD/JPY. And quite unusual to AUD/JPY traditionally.

USD/CAD is on the way higher on day 4 but slow price movements higher. Unusual for USD/CAD as USD/CAD contains a free wheeling currency price.

Weekly Trades seen this week is entry anywhere as deep divergence existed between currency pairs. USD/CAD Vs GBP/USD for example. Entries literally didn’t matter as long as the trades were taken in the right directions. Rare for this to happen, especially on weekly trades.

GBP/USD for example dropped so far 117 pips from weekly entry price and 207 pips from market highs. Did entry matter? No

Weekly Trades

Favored trades this week: AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, AUD/CHF, EUR/AUD, NZD/JPY, NZD/USD, NZD/CHF, USD/CAD, EUR/USD, EUR/NZD, EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY
Note. Short or Long Anywhere because all our pairs are located at price extremes. Don’t wait for entry just enter and good to enter heavy and expect wide movements this week. Rare opportunity . EUR/USD is good but enter bit higher. Stand clear CAD/JPY and no thrills EUR/JPY. USD/CAD, AUD/USD and all GBP pairs are top picks to weekly list.
AUD/JPY. Break Point 74.91, below targets 73.06.
Strategy. Short anywhere or 77.65 and 78.11 to target 75.82. Must cross 77.42, 77.19, 76.96, 76.73, 76.50, 76.27 and 76.04. Short below 74.91 to target 73.06. Cautious long 75.82 to target 76.74. Long only strategy.
AUD/USD. Break Point 0.7028, below targets 0.6920.
Strategy. Short anywhere or 0.7381 and 0.7394 to target 0.7163. Must cross 0.7354, 0.7327, 0.7300, 0.7273, 0.7246, 0.7219 and 0.7192. Cautious long 0.7163 to target 0.7246. Long only strategy.
AUD/CHF. Break Point 0.6512, below targets 0.6435.
Strategy. Short anywhere or 0.66 5 and 0.6687 to target 0.6531. Must cross 0.6647, 0.6627, 0.6608, 0.6589, 0.6570 and 0.6551. Short below 0.6512 to target 0.6435. Cautious long 0.6531 to target 0.6589. Long only strategy.
EUR/AUD. Break Point 1.6480, above targets 1.6589.
Strategy. Long anywhere or 1.6136 and 1.6127 to target 1.6444. Must cross 1.6172, 1.6208, 1.6244, 1.6280, 1.6316, 1.6352, 1.6388 and 1.6424. Long above 1.6480 to target 1.6589. Cautious short 1.6444 to target 1.6335. Short only strategy.
NZD/JPY. Break Point 69.34, below targets 68.55.
Strategy. Short anywhere or 71.10 and 71.34 to target 69.63. Must cross 70.90, 70.70, 70.50, 70.30, 70.10, 69.90, and 69.70. Short below 69.34 to target 68.55. Cautious long 69.63 to target 70.13. Long only strategy.
NZD/USD. Break Point 0.6504, below targets 0.6391.
Strategy. Short anywhere or 0.6759 and 0.6773 to target 0.6533. Must cross 0.6731, 0.6703, 0.6675, 0.6647, 0.6619, 0.6591, 0.6563 and 0.6535. Short below 0.6504 to target 0.6391. Cautious long 0.6533 to target 0.6618. Long only strategy.
NZD/CHF. Break Point 0.6029, below targets 0.5987.
Strategy. Short anywhere or 0.6103 and 0.6114 to target 0.6031. Must cross 0.6082, 0.6061 and 0.6040. Short below 0.6029 to target 0.5987. Cautious long 0.6031 to target 0.6072. Long only strategy.
USD/CAD. Break Point 1.3371, above targets 1.3513.
Strategy. Long anywhere or 1.3066 and 1.3044 to target 1.3324. Must cross 1.3111, 1.3134, 1.3157, 1.3180, 1.3203, 1.3226, 1.3249, 1.3272, 1.3295 and 1.3318. Long above 1.3371 to target 1.3513. Cautious short 1.3324 to target 1.3182. Short only strategy.
EUR/USD. Break Point 1.1574, below targets 1.1435.
Strategy. Short 1.1956 and 1.1974 to target 1.1713. Must cross 1.1922, 1.1888, 1.1854, 1.1820, 1.1786, 1.1752 and 1.1718. Long 1.1713 to target 1.1852. Long only strategy.
EUR/NZD. Break Point 1.7795, above targets 1.7912.
Strategy. Long 1.7601 and 1.7580 to target 1.7775. Must cross 1.7619, 1.7638, 1.7657, 1.7676, 1.7695, 1.7714, 1.77331.7752 and 1.7771. Long above 1.7795 to target 1.7912. Cautious short 1.7775 to target 1.7639. Weekly strategy.
EUR/JPY. Break Point 123.37, below targets 122.29.
Strategy. Short 125.79 and 126.06 to target 123.90. Must cross 125.52, 125.25, 124.98, 124.71, 124.44 and 124.17. Cautious long 123.90 to target 124.98. Long only strategy.
CAD/JPY. Break Point 79.76, below targets 78.98.
Strategy. Short 80.70 and 80.85 to target 79.92. Must cross 80.54, 80.38, 80.22, 80.06 and 79.90. Short below 79.76 to target 78.98. Long 78.98 to target 79.61.
GBP
Favored trades this week: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD.
GBP/USD. Break Point 1.2923, below targets 1.2806.
Strategy. Short anywhere or 1.3361 and 1.3391 to target 1.3098. Must cross 1.3332, 1.3303, 1.3274, 1.3245, 1.3216, 1.3187, 1.3158, 1.3129 and 1.3100. Long 1.3098 to target 1.3157. Long only strategy.
GBP/JPY. Break Point 137.76, below targets 136.08.
Strategy. Short anywhere or 140.88 and 140.98 to target 138.77. Must cross 140.47, 140.06,, 139.65, 139.24, 139.03 and 138.82. Long 138.77 to target 139.43. Long only strategy.
GBP/CHF. Break Point 1.1978, below targets 1.1889.
Strategy. Short anywhere or 1.2085 and 1.2102 to target 1.1996. Must cross 1.2068, 1.2051, 1.2034, 1.2017, 1.2001 and 1.1983. Short below 1.1978 to target 1.1889. Long 1.1889 to target 1.1951. Long only strategy.
GBP/CAD. Break Point 1.7270, below targets 1.7187.
Strategy. Short Anywhere or 1.7498 and 1.7509 to target 1.7291. Must cross 1.7478, 1.7458, 1.7438, 1.7418, 1.7398, 1.7378, 1.7358, 1.7338, 1.7318 and 1.7298. Short below 1.7270 to target 1.7187. Cautious long 1.7291 to target 1.7353. Weekly strategy.
GBP/AUD. Break Point 1.8406, above targets 1.8561.
Strategy. long 1.8018 and 1.7979 to target 1.8329. Must cross 1.8056, 1.8094, 1.8132, 1.8160, 1.8198, 1.8236, 1.8274 and 1.8312. Short 1.8329 to target 1.8223. Weekly strategy.
GBP/NZD. Break Point 1.9871, above targets 2.0004.
Strategy. Long 1.9693 and 1.9663 to target 1.9849. Must cross 1.9715, 1.9737, 1.9759, 1.9781, 1.9803, 1.9825 and 1.9847. Long above 1.9871 to target 2.0004. Short 2.0004 to target 1.9938. Weekly strategy.
                   Brian Twomey