Weekly Trades: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, CAD/CHF

GBP/JPY will lead JPY cross pairs lower this week. CAD/JPY begins the week overbought while USD/CAD launches from oversold. USD/CAD closed last week at 1.3096 and oversold while this week at the 1.3056 close remains oversold. Included this week is overbought CAD/CHF.

CHF cross pairs arranged as Other Pair/CHF has been running wide ranging to dead week after week. This week is dead ranger. A currency price is dead weekly due to either allow a currency pair within its orbit to perform its necessary porice function or a problem is located within correlations.

CAD/CHF Vs CAD/JPY correlates -25% and +49% to USD/CAD while USD/CAD correlates minus 96% to USD/CAD.

CAD/CHF contains a severe problem to USD/CAD as the correlation should run deeply negative because CAD/CHF is the complete opposite pair to USD/CAD as much as GBP/USD is the total opposite to USD/CAD.

The positive correlation from USD/CAD informs CAD/CHF price runs 50% of USD/CAD. But correct to alignment is CAD/CHF should contain a positive correlation to CAD/JPY and deeply negative to USD/CAD. The CAD universe however is vastly different to its counterparts.

AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF, GBP/CHF and EUR/CHF are bottom pairs with a lower exchange rate price in relation to AUD/USD, NZD/CHF, GBP/USD and EUR/USD.

The Other Pair/CHF purpose is to contain the price to non USD pairs so all don’t trade wildly or theoretically to zero. A non USD pair such as EUR/USD doesn’t have ability to cross below Other Pair/CHF. Instead the price adjusts up or down in relation to non USD pairs.

Overall, USD/CHF and CHF cross pairs as Other Pair /CHF are deeply oversold short, medium and long term. CAD/CHF and AUD/CHF contain the best long term trades for longs.

Deeply oversold CAD/CHF informs USD/CAD potential to trade miles lower is tremendous. USD/CAD averages over time have been dropping however slowly. USD/CAD currently trades between its 5 and 10 year averages from 1.3190 to 1.1893 against most vital averages at 1.2998, 1.2578 and 1.2382. CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF alternatively contain potential to trade miles higher.


Long 1.3004 and 1.2991 to target 1.3262.
Long above 1.3316 to target 1.3506.
Short 1.3506 to target 1.3370.
Short 1.3262 to target 1.3119.


Short 81.37 and 81.58 to target 80.29
Short below 80.07 to target 79.22
Long 79.22 to target 79.86.
Short 80.29 to target 80.74.


Short 0.7016 and 0.7038 to target 0.6961.
Short 0.6950 to target 0.6894.
Long 0.6894 to target 0.6939.
Long 0.6961 to target 0.7004.


Brian Twomey