FX Closing Prices

As a follow up to the last post in regards to Trump’s election victory. Poll after poll reports Biden ahead. Yet view the polls and what is revealed is Democrats are over sampled to Republicans. Likely voters are not sampled. Can anyone believe polls are truly random sampled.


Then comes the weights used and adjusted to probabilities, who are actually sampled from the population. Sample all blacks and over sample Democrats to Republicans then reports are seen Blacks by overwhelming majority favor Biden


Most important for Polls is the Margin of Error. A high Margin of Error reveals few voters were polled and vice versa, a low Margin of Error divulges a larger number of voters were polled. The larger number of voters polled then the better are the results to true poll accuracy.


The Biden polls are sampling at most 1000 voters and this leads to a high margin of error. Polls of the type are wrong and reveal nothing.


Close price forecasts as we look ahead to next week’s trades.


USD/CAD 1.3268 and a decent long ahead next week.
EUR/USD 1.1704. Another week in a tough position.


GBP/USD 1.2886 assumes 1.2822 holds. Decent to longs.
GBP/CHF. 1.1913. Problem as ranges went dead so don’t expect much next week. Yet GBP/CHF holds support for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY.


EUR/JPY 123.49 assumes 122.98 holds. Also decent longs.
GBP/JPY . 135.67. This price warns to caution to EUR/JPY holding 122.98.


AUD/USD 0.7114. Good longs.
NZD/USD 0.6602. Good longs


EUR/AUD. 1.6363. Terrible position ad may means AUD/USD is vulnerable to lower.
GBP/AUD 1.8048. The reverse story to AUD/USD vulnerable to lower prices next week.


EUR/NZD 1.7689. Decent long and same story as AUD. Means caution to NZD/USD higher.
GBP/NZD 1.9453. Opposite story to EUR/NZD and NZD/USD lower.


AUD/JPY. 75.32 to 75.08. Good position. Says AUD/USD higher next week on track.


Overall prices for the past roughly 3 weeks are functioning normally and expected to hold this normal position for many weeks t come. Normality began when EUR/USD dropped to 1.1900’s and 1.1800’s.


Last note. GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, PLN/HUF and USD/PLN weekly trades all achieves targets and reversals. PLN/HUF and USD/PLN achieved +1000 pips alone.

Brian Twomey