Weekly Round Up

From January 3rd long term forecasts, last week compared 8 trade days while today another trade week is viewed from most significant MA’s.

AUDUSD January 14th

AUD/USD: 0.7498 Vs 0.7821 or 323 pips
Last week: 0.7530 Vs 0.7821 or 291 pips and a 32 pip compression to overall ranges.
This week: 0.7535 Vs 0.7821 or 286 pips and a 5 pip compression from last week and 37 pips overall in 3 weeks.

Between 0.7535 and 0.7821 are minor levels to trade weeklies. This week for example 0.7723 to 0.7629 or 0.7582 to 0.7629.

January 9th, AUD/USD opened the week at 0.7765 then opened January 16th at 0.7700 or a 65 pip week.

January 16 to 23, AUD/USD opened at 0.7700 to close at 0.7710 for a 10 pip difference.
January 23rd to January 30 AUD 0.7710 Vs 0.7637 or 73 pips.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD January 14 Significant MA’s as follows: 1.2119, 1.2020, 1.2038 Vs 1.2630.
From 1.2119 to 1.2630 = 511 pips.
Last week: 1.2116, 1.2020, 1.2030 vs 1.2628. From 1.2116 to 1.2628 = 512 pips.
EUR/USD moved 1 pip in 8 trade days.

This week: 1.2113, 1.2020, 1.2034 Vs 1.2627 = 514 pips
EUR/USD gained 3 pips to its overall range in 3 weeks.

Weekly January 9 to 16, EUR/USD opened at 1.2216 and closed 1.2074 or 142 pips.

January 16 to 23rd: 1.2074 to 1.2169 or 95 pips
January 23 to 30th: 1.2169 to 1.2132 or 37 pips.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD January 14 Significant MA’s as follows: 1.2586 Vs 1.2924 and 1.2976. From 1.2586 to 1.2976 = 390 Pips.

Today. 1.2586, 1.2886 and 1.2976 or 390 pips and no change over 8 trade days.
This week: Today. 1.2586, 1.2886 and 1.2976 or 390 pips and no change.

January 9 to 16: 1.2684 to 1.2736 or 52 pips.
January 16 to 23rd: 1.2736 to 1.2729 or 6 pips.
January 23rd to 30th: 1.2729 to 1.2773 or 44 pips.

Canada Interest Rates
From last week. Corra 0.1900 Vs OMMFR 0.1908. USD/CAD failed to sustain its break 1.2886. Longs and shorts for longer periods are in do or die mode.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD January 14 Significant MA’s as follows: 1.3351 and 1.3360 Vs 1.3832 or 481 pips from 1.3832 to 1.3551.

Last week: 1.3408 and 1.3360 to 1.3832. From 1.3832 to 1.3408 = 424 pips and a compression of 57 pips to overall ranges.

This week: 1.3448, 1.3360 Vs 1.3832 or 384 pips, a compression of 40 pips from last week and 97 pip in 3 weeks from 481.

January 9 to 16th: 1.3554 to 1.3575 or 21 pips

January 16 to 23rd: 1.3575 to 1.3671 or 96 pips.
January 23rd to 30th: 1.3671 to 1.3688 or 17 pips.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY. January 14 Significant MA’s as follows: 139.25 Vs 144.31 and 146.14 or 689 pips from 146.14 to 139.25.

Last week: 139.76, Vs 144.31 and 146.14 or 689 pips from 139.15 to 146.14 or 638 pips from 146.14 to 139.76.

Bottom average rose by 51 pips to compress ranges by exactly 51 pips.

This Week: 140.25, 142.66, 144.31 Vs 146.14 or 589 pips and an overall range compression of 100 pips.

January 9 to 16: 140.92 to 141.03 or 11 pips.
January 16 to 23rd: 141.03 to 141.95 or 92 pips.
January 23 to 30th: 141.95 to 143.39 or 144 pips.

The Week

GBP

Same story as last week, Overbought, GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/CAD and GBP/JPY. Nothing special to GBP/NZD however GBP/AUD watch 1.7852.

JPY

USD/JPY 104.66 close, watch below 104.31. All JPY cross pairs are deeply overbought.
USD/JPY Vs USD/CAD, VS USD/CHF Vs CAD/ZAR.

USD/CAD trades below at 1.2886, USD/CHF trades below at 0.8961, CAD/ZAR trades below at 11.9845.

USD/JPY Vs EM

USD/PLN Trades below 3.7521, USD/RON trades below 4.0473, USD/MYR Trades below 4.0487, USD/BRL trades above 5.3622, BRL/JPY trades below 19.4665.USD/HUF trades below 297.92

USD/JPY is vulnerable to a break lower at 104.31 to match counterparts. Current range 103.25 vs 106.00. USD/JPY currently sits at perfect neutral for the week. Next big point above 104.92.
From last week. Japanese Call Rates 0.988 Vs Deposit rate 0.900.

AUD

AUD/USD sits at perfect neutral while AUD/JPY, AUD/CHF are overbought and deeply oversold AUD/CAD. Lowest pair AUD/USD neutral Vs highest AUD/CAD neutral. AUD/JPY and AUD/CHF must rightsize to AUD/USD and AUD/CAD.

AUD/USD Breaks 0.7535 and AUD/CAD 0.9705 then AUD/JPY breaks its 5 year average at 79.72 to head lower and AUD/CHF follows.

EUR/CAD close at 1.5503 sits exactly on big break 1.5503. Last week, EUR/CAD sat 8 pips above vital break and traded 100 ish pips lower.

GBP/AUD 1.7852 and trades above while EUR/AUD trades below 1.5979, big divergence.

NZD

NZD/JPY and NZD/CHF sits deep overbought while NZD/USD and NZD/CAD retain fairly neutral positions. Same story as AUD.

Month End Vs Maintenance Periods

Month end 30 days vs Maintenance Periods 35 days. Traders talk about Month end. Central Banks meetings occur every 35 days. Current Central bank meetings represent the last days of 35. Rare day to see 30 trader day coincide to central bank 35.

Brian Twomey

Close Price Forecast Results

From 21 currency pairs posted, AUD/USD achieved perfection at 0.7637, AUD/CHF and NZD/CAD closed within 5 and 6 pips to forecast while AUD/JPY and GBP/AUD were off by 13 and 14 pips.

EUR/NZD was next off 19 pips followed by EUR/CHF at 21, GBP/NZD 21 and USD/JPY off by 22 pips. AUD was the best forecast category while GBP was worst of 5 categories to include: EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, USD. Both GBP/JPY and GBP/USD off by 52 and 62 pips.

The list as posted Friday at 3:00 AM

EUR/USD 1.2099, actual 1.2132, off 33 pips

EUR/CHF 1.0783, actual 1.0804, off 21 pips

EUR/JPY 126.21, actual 127.04, off 83 pips

EUR/CAD 1.5533, actual 1.5503, off 30 pips

EUR/NZD 1.6872, actual 1.6891, off 19 pips

EUR/AUD 1.5838, actual 1.5873, off 35 pips

GBP

GBP/USD 13636. actual 1.3688, off 52 pips

GBP/JPY 142.67, actual 143.29, off 62 pips

GBP/CHF 1.2129, actual 1.2194, off 65 pips

GBP/NZD 1.9034, actual 1.9055, off 21 pips

GBP/AUD 1.7892, actual 1.7905, off 13 pips

GBP/CAD doesn’t matter, and short at Sunday open. Result: doesn’t matter and short at the Sunday open.

AUD

AUD/USD 0.7637, Actual 0.7637

AUD/JPY 79.82, actual 79.96, off 14 pips

AUD/CHF 0.6803, actual 0.6808, off 5 pips

AUD/CAD 0.9801, actual 0.9766, off 35 pips

NZD

NZD/USD 0.7146, actual 0.7176, off 30 pips

NZD/JPY 74.70, actual 75.15, off 35 pips

NZD/CHF 0.6346, actual 0.6298, off 52 pips

NZD/CAD 0.9172, actual 0.9178

USD/CAD 1.2842, actual 1.2729, off 113 pips

USD/JPY 104.44, actual 104.66, off 22 pips

Forecasts are improving by the week. A perfect week will achieve

Brian Twomey

Biden Appointments and Implications

Government, for the Elites, By the Elites and serves Elitist people. America is in trouble as the Democrat monstrosity builds its destructive umbrella over America and closes day by day on the American people. May God bless America.

Brian Twomey

Close Prices

EUR/USD 2 main points today: 1.2041 and the vital break for much lower at current 1.2033. EUR/USD is not only close to significant levels but its opposite USD/JPY finally aligned yesterday to break above 104.27 and traded highs to 104.65 or 38 pips.

EUR/USD more perfect opposite CAD/ZAR trades current 11.81 and 17 pips below its vital break at 11.99. CAD/ZAR’s break at 11.99 would assure a lower EUR and a break to 1.2033.

Close Prices Today

EUR/USD 1.2099. Good call here.
EUR/JPY here’s the problem pair in the EUR universe due to break at 128.32 then below 125.46, 124.19 and 123.98. Next week’s weekly average bottom line will report in the vicinity of 124.19

EUR/CHF 1.0783, Do or die 1.0779
EUR/JPY close 126.21
EUR/CAD 1.5533

EUR/NZD 1.6872
EUR/AUD Best call last week, off 8 pips to the close. Today 1.5838

GBP/USD 1.3636

GBP/JPY Next problem pair in deep overbought. Close 142.67
GBP/CHF. 1.2129
GBP/CAD doesn’t matter, short Sunday on the open as was the call last week for quick 50 ish pips

GBP/NZD 1.9034
GBP/AUD 1.7892 and must remain above vital 1.7335 or far lower next week.

AUD/USD 0.7637

AUD/JPY 79.82 and 5 year average 79.72
AUD/CHF. 0.6803
AUD/CAD 0.9801

NZD/USD 0.7146

NZD/JPY 74.70 and 5 year average 74.59
NZD/CHF 0.6346
NZD/CAD 0.9172

USD/CAD Do or Die at vital 1.2887. Close 1.2842

USD/JPY remains above 104.27. Close 104.44

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD Trade Results and GDP

The EUR/USD day trade range was 1.2080 to 1.2141 or 61 pips and traded between highs from 1.2127 to 1.2142. We are at the highs of the day and 45 minutes until ECB then trading for the day is finished.

The focus now is on shorts and 1.2127 becomes the vital break to target remaining levels at 1.2119, 1.2112 and 1.2104. The closer time comes to ECB at 10:00 then exit with profits and walk away for the day.

Information was missing purposely over last days but profits today were + 44 pips then reverse longs to shorts for a few extra pips. Because ranges rarely break, trades are allowed for longs and shorts during 7 1/2 trade period.

The relationship from currency prices to economic announcements decoupled drastically and this was done purposely upon the new interest rate revamp by central banks.

GDP 4% expected. Percent % is the key. An economic announcement must align to the currency or any market price to trade correctly so a conversion is necessary.

4% is actually 0.0400 as a decimal, 1/ 25th as a fraction. Added and subtracted 400 pips to the currency price = 1.2497 and 1.1697. Well this is impossible.

The new interest rate system ensured economic announcements would remain in range and a few pips higher or lower upon releases not aligned to consensus. Far better moves were seen in the old days of economic announcements than is traded today.

Explains why economic announcements are just part of the daily range trade and are fairly meaningless.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD Day Trade

From yesterday at 12:30 Fed to the China open at 8:30, here’s EUR/USD lineup.
Most Vital exchange rates: 1.2057, 1.2063, 1.2069 Vs Above 1.2113, 1.2121, 1.2128, 1.2136, 1.2143, 1.2151, 1.2159 and 1.2167.

Bottom. 1.2046
Upper target 1.2167
Continuation fail 1.2136

Bottom. 1.2046 achieves by 1.2054, 1.2063 and 1.2069.

Big 4 most vital: 1.2057 and 1.2069 Vs 1.2136 and 1.2167.

Actual trade range for 8 hours: 1.2083 to 1.2128 or 45 pips. EUR/USD traded its best trade for 31 pips from 1.2097 to 1.2128 at Fed time then EUR/USD died. A trade didn’t exist for 8 hours because EUR/USD existed in mid range.

A trade didn’t exist for Fed time because EUR/USD existed in mid range. Impossible to trade a price at mid range.

A trap exists at 12;30 Fed to factor trades because FED interest rates are released at 4;15 P.M. daily. A new trade must factor from 4:15 to the 8:30 China open or to factor a trade for 24 hours. What may or may not change is the range, vital support and resistance points and the minor trade levels in between.

Day to day interest rates however rarely change by much from day to day close prices. You’ll see maybe 1 or 2 points per maturity. Its the same as saying no change to prices.
The central banks now report 25 and 75th percentile trade ranges for overnight rates for Eonia, Fed Funds, Japanese Call rates. Then interest rates trade right back to the close price where they began.

But interest rate volumes trade miles higher than exchange rate volumes.

An interest rate factors to any day trade in any currency on the planet, any stock index, commodity and any market price. As long as an interest rate factors to the trade then all information is known in advance to the trade. The trader job then is click, click.

2 trades at the same time for today. Long GBP/USD 1.3606 to target 1.3617 then 1.3631 and short USD/CAD at 1.2898 to target 1.2857.

EUR/USD Trade

Exchange Rates: Below 1.2036, 1.2043, 1.2051, 1.2058 and 1.2066.
Above 1.2104, 1.2112, 1.2119, 1.2127, 1.2134, 1.2142, 1.2150, and 1.2158.

Bottom. 1.2036 achieves by 1.2043, 1.2051 and 1.2066.

Upper target 1.2158
Continuation fail 1.2127

Big 4 Most vital: 1.2046, 1.2058 Vs 1.2127 and 1.2158.

Recall the weekly trade vital points for EUR/USD at 1.2116. Today its 1.2114.

The day trade now interferes with the weekly important MA points.

Trade Point. Highly doubtful EUR/USD leaves today’s range as this rarely happens.

However if EUR/USD trades above 1.2158 or below 1.2036 then free money exists to longs and shorts as EUR/USD is mandatory to trade back to prescribed ranges.
No mention to GDP or the slew of data today. Nobody cares nor does the EUR/USD price path.

Also notice, no stops, charts, graphs and thankfully no Fibonacci numbers. The worst number to factor trades on the planet is Fibonacci numbers.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD Trade Result, FED, New Trade

As written this morning at 3:00 A.M, here’s the daily trade for EUR/USD and good until 10:00 A.M. based on exact interest rates to exchange rates.

Step 1
Exchange Rates: Most Important 1.2112, 1.2118 and 1.2125 Vs 1.2169, 1.2177, 1.2184, 1.2192, 1.2199, 1.2207, 1.2215 and 1.2223

Bottom. 1.2101 achieves by 1.2131,1.2123 and 1.2116

Upper target 1.2223

Continuation fail 1.2192

Result: At 9:30 AM and in the last 1/2 hour to the day trade, EUR/USD traded to exactly 1.2101 Bottom then rose to 1.2116. Notice the bounce point to hit at 1.2116.
EUR/USD dropped from 1.2165 and note just prior to 1.2169.

The trade from 1.2165 to 1.2101 result +64 pips. Then automatic long from 1.2101 to 1.2116 for +16. And total +80 pips.

Step 2

Take 80 pips and walk away for the day to produce more profits for tomorrow. Note this is 1 day trade of 8 total traded twice daily. Walk because the bottom hit at 1.2101 at 9:30 A.M. was 30 minutes before ECB.

The ECB had 2 choices: take EUR/USD higher or lower. ECB decided on EUR/USD lower to 1.2058 and this happened at the 9 A.M Candle on the hourly chart. The hourly candle runs from 9:00 A.M. to 10:00 A.M.

The Lesson

Vital to know which exchange rates trade in relation to the times of the day. If EUR/USD bottom at 1.2101 hit at 8:00, 7:00 or even 6:00 A.M then EUR/USD would traded much higher than 1.2116.

Step 3

Only a few pips will change at FED time today. Matter of fact, not much will change in a 24 hour trade period. Personally, we don’t trade Central Bank meetings because nothing exists to trade.

Result: EUR/USD traded barely 30 pips for the FED.

The Trade

The Fed at 12:30 dictated the EUR/USD trade.

Exchange Rates: Most Important : 1.2057, 1.2063, 1.2069 Vs Above 1.2113, 1.2121, 1.2128, 1.2136, 1.2143, 1.2151, 1.2159 and 1.2167.

Bottom. 1.2046, 1.2063 and 1.2069.

Upper target 1.2167

Continuation fail 1.2136.

Points Most Vital: 1.2057 and 1.2069 Vs 1.2136 and 1.2167. Points here represent EUR/USD Vs USD/EUR. The whole day trade represents EUR/USD Vs USD/EUR.

Result

EUR/USD traded between 1.2097 to 1.2128 for 31 pips. The 31 pips traded middle range from the new day trade at 1.2069 to 1.2128. A trade didn’t exist.

The Lesson

Once the FED sets exchange rates at 12;30 then the next major change for exchange rates is the China open at 8:30 P.M. EST. EUR/USD sits for 8 hours on the new day trade and on the same exchange rates.

Traders won’t use their full trade options nor will EUR/USD trade the full exchange rate list at 12:30 with 8 hours to go.

We begin again at 8:30 P.M. to trade Asia then comes the new day trade from 1:30 A.M. to 10:00 A.M. We don’t ever trade after 10 A.M. because all the central banks are in the market.

Most important overall, the exchange rate price path doesn’t care about Powell, central banks and 99% of all the outside events to possibly move the exchange rate. The price path for the day trade only cares about its ranges, levels and targets. Same for the weekly trade.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and ECB Interest Rates

Previous ECB interest rates and the EUR traded between the ECB’s Deposit rate and the Refinance rate. Spreads were wide at 75 and 125 and 150 basis points. The spread was wide enough for the EUR to trade far and wide on any given day, 2 and 300 pip days way back when was fairly common.

Then the ECB decided EUR daily ranges were far to wide so they prevented movements by a complete overhaul to the ECB’s interest rate structure.

Today the Deposit rate is 0.50 and 0.00 to the Main Refinance rate or 50 basis points. The 50 basis points is down from 0.60 to 0.00 in 2016 and 65 basis points in 2015 after the ECB went negative interest rates.

The new 50 basis point range and the smallest in ECB history is enough to stabilize the EUR to ensure it won’t ever trade as the instrument it once was but would trade in much smaller ranges. But 50 basis points was not enough to destroy EUR daily ranges as the ECB re factored Eonia as the ECB’s overnight rate then introduced the STR or Short Term Rate to send EUR daily ranges to its funeral.

Today’s Eonia trades 0.524 and 24 basis points above the 0.50 Deposit rate. EUR/USD shorts must break 0.50 on the deposit rate. Not likely anytime soon. For the past week Eonia traded from 0.524 to 0.520 or 4 basis points. 2 weeks ago, Eonia traded from 0.519 to 0.523 or 4 basis points. Not much going on to the main EUR driver of prices.

Eonia represents the top interest rate to the interest rate corridor however Eonia will trade its last transaction later in 2021.

The Short Term Rate was introduced in 2018/ 2019 and will substitute for Eonia.
Today’s Short Term Rate was offered at 0.442 and trades 58 points below the 0.50 Deposit rate and 82 points below Eonia. Now we have a floor and ceiling from 0.442 to 0.50 and 0.50 to 0524.

The STR range yesterday traded from 0.420 to 0.470 or 18 points on the topside and 22 points on the bottom.

Next comes Euribor rates offered as complements to Eonia and STR.

Euribor from 1 week to 1 year rates: 0.429, 0.446, 0.457, 0.479 and 0.507. All rates pretty much now tracking the STR rate yet the predominant EUR driver is Eonia. The closest match to Fed yields is the 5 year yield at 0.42 then the 7 year yield at 0.73 or a range from 0.42 to 0.73.

To align all interest rates then as follows: 0.429, 0.442 STR, 0.446, 0.457, 0.479, 0.50 Deposit Rate, 0.507 Euribor and 0.524 Eonia.

ECB interest rates are not necessarily specific to apply for EUR daily trades. Just as good are Fed and New Zealand interest rates. And this applies to all currency pairs for day trades.

EUR/USD tops, bottoms and traded levels in between must correspond to an interest rate. Its the way currency prices began trading at the 1972 free float and no other way exists to trade the daily trade.

All ECB rates trade above Fed rates.

Short Term Rate STR since Introduction

Eonia 1 Month

Graph last month

Eonia 1 Year

1 Month EUR/USD Vs USD/EUR

1 Week EUR/USD Vs USD/EUR

   EUR/USD Trade today, good until 10:00 AM EST. Only a few pips will change at FED time today. Matter of fact, not much will change in a 24 hour trade period. Personally, we don't trade Central bank meetings because nothing exists to trade. 

                 EUR/USD and the exact complement to interest rates. 

   EUR/USD Trade today, good until 10:00 AM EST. Only a few pips will change at FED time today. Matter of fact, not much will change in a 24 hour trade period. Personally, we don't trade Central bank meetings because nothing exists to trade

Most Important 1.2112, 1.2118 and 1.2125 Vs 1.2169, 1.2177, 1.2184, 1.2192, 1.2199, 1.2207, 1.2215 and 1.2223

Bottom. 1.2101 achieves by 1.2131,1.2123 and 1.2116

Upper target 1.2223

Continuation fail 1.2192

Notice EUR intervals are running above at 8, 7, 8, 7, 8, 8, 8. This routine changes daily but never by much.

Most Important today below: 1.2112 and 1.2125. Above 1.2223 and 1.2192. This routine captures fully EUR/USD and USD/EUR.

Brian Twomey

CIRCLE of 5ths and 4ths

Best presentation on Circle of 5th and 4ths, Flats and Sharps I’ve ever seen.

Brian Twomey

AUD Day Trade and Interest Rates

An interest rate is an interest rate and the lowest possible number offered daily by central banks. An exchange rate is a glorified interest rate under a different number. Both are the same numbers but must convert.

RBA Interest Rates today but only for today as interest rates change daily

0.08, 0.07, 0.06, 0.05, 0.04, 0.03, 0.02, 0.01 = Average 0.45

USD Interest Rates today but only for today as interest rates change daily.

0.11, 0.15, 0.19, 0.25, 0.31, 0.37, 0.41 and 0.44 = Average 0.27

Match AUD high at 0.08 to USD top at 0.44.

0.08 Vs 0.44, 0.07 Vs 0.41, 0.06 V 0.37, 0.05 Vs 0.31, 0.04 Vs 0.25, 0.03 Vs 0.19, 0.02 Vs 0.15 and 0.01 Vs 0.11.

The Correlation is + 99%.

Match AUD highs from USD lows to highs.

0.08 Vs 0.11, 0.07 Vs 0.15, 0.06 Vs 0.19, 0.05 Vs 0.25, 0.04 Vs 0.31, 0.03 Vs 0.37, 0.02 to 0.41, 0.01 Vs 0.44.

The Correlation is – 0.99%. An exchange rate is born as AUD/USD.

Match AUD interest rate highs to Exchange rates highs traded above respective points.

0.08 Vs 0.7724, 0.07 Vs 0.7719, 0.06 Vs 0.7714, 0.05 Vs 0.7709, 0.04 Vs 0.7704, 0.03 Vs 0.7699, 0.02 Vs 0.7694, 0.01 Vs 0.7689.

The Correlation is perfect at +1.0. Reveals each exchange rate point corresponds perfectly to the interest rate.

Match interest rate to exchange rate opposite order.

0.08 Vs 0.7689, 0.07 Vs 0.7694, 0.06 vs 0.7699, 0.05 Vs 0.7704, 0.04 Vs 0.7709, 0.03 Vs 0.7714, 0.02 Vs 0.7719, 0.01 Vs 0.7724

The Correlation is perfect opposite at -1.0

Interest rates are drivers to exchange rates. Its impossible for interest rates not to drive exchange rates and all market prices.

Match interest Rate highs to AUD Lows

0.08 Vs 0.7646, 0.07 Vs 0.7650, 0.06 Vs 0.7655, 0.05 Vs 0.7660, 0.04 Vs 0.7665, 0.03 Vs 0.7667, 0.02 Vs 0.7670, 0.01 Vs 0.7673.

The Correlation is -0.99%.

Match interest rates from highs to Exchange rate highs in descending order

0.08 Vs 0.7673, 0.07 Vs 0.7670, 0.06 Vs 0.7667, 0.05 Vs 0.7665, 0.04 vs 0.7660, 0.03 Vs 0.7655, 0.02 Vs 0.7650, 0.01 Vs 0.7646

The Correlation is +0.99% and perfect.

Match USD interest rate highs to AUD Highs

0.44 vs 0.7673, 0.41 Vs 0.7670, 0.37 Vs 0.7667, 0.31 Vs 0.7665, 0.25 Vs 0.7660, 019 Vs 0.7655, 0.15 Vs 0.7650, 0.11 vs 0.7546.

Correlation +0.99%

Match USD interest Rate lows to AUD highs

0.11 vs 0.7673, 0.15 Vs 0.7670, 0.19 Vs 0.7667, 0.25 Vs 0.7665, 0.31 Vs 0.7660, 0.37 Vs 0.7655, 0.41 Vs 0.7650, 0.44 Vs 0.7646

Correlation -0.99%

AUD achieves 0.7673 on USD 0.44.

Match USD interest rate highs to AUD Lows

0.44 Vs 0.7646, 0.41 Vs 0.7650, 0.37 Vs 0.7655, 0.31 Vs 0.7660, 0.25 vs 0.7665, 0.19 Vs 0.7667, 0.15 vs 0.7670, 0.11 vs 0.7673

Correlation – 99%

Subtract AUD interest Rate highs from USD Lows

0.08 – 0.11 = 0.03, 0.07 -0.15 = 0.08, 0.06 – 0.19 = 0.13, 0.05 – 0.25 = 0.20, 0.04 – 0.31 = 0.27, 0.03 – 0.37 = 0.34, 0.02 – 0.41 = 0.39, 0.01 – 0.44 = 0.43.

Answers: 0.03, 0.08, 0.13, 0.20, 0.27, 0.34, 0.39 and 0.43 = 0.23

Subtract AUD Interest Rate highs from USD highs

0.08 – 0.44 = 0.36, 0.07 – 0.41 = 0.34, 0.06 – 0.37 = 0.31, 0.05 – 0.31 = 0.26, 0.04 – 0.25 = 0.21, 0.03 – 0.19 = 0.16, 0.02 – 0.15 = 0.13, 0.01 – 0.11 = 0.10

Answers: 0.36, 0.41, 0.34, 0.31, 0.26, 0.21, 0.16, 0.13, 0.10 = 0.25.

USD range 0.32 + AUD Range 0.07 = 0.39

USD Range 0.32 – AUD Range 0.07 = 0.25.

AUD/USD Exact Vital MA Points today: 0.45, 0.39, 0.27, 0.25, 0.23. Also 32 exists in the mix but not shown.

The main driver to today’s day trade is 0.25 and AUD 0.05 or 0.7665. Tomorrow? Who knows. We deal with tomorrow when it comes as the only focus is day trades for today. However interest rates today don’t change much from day to day in all nations.

AUD 10 year Yield

Change RBA interest rates to an interest rate or as basis points because interest rates are offered as percentages.

0.08 = 1.08, 0.07 = 1.07, 0.06 =1.06, 0.05 = 1.05, 0.04 = 1.04, 0.03 = 1.03, 0.02 = 1.02, 0.01 = 1.01

Average = 1.04 and the 10 year yield closed today at 1.04 and down 0.034. The 2 year yield 0.08, The 3 year yield 0.11, The 5 year Yield 0.39 and 10 year yield 1.04

In American Market trading, Australia markets are closed therefore AUD interest rates are fixed and set until the RBA offers a new set of interest rates.

The main point to this winding road is a currency price on any given day it trades is matched to an interest rate. Its a no lose system. The laugh to all this today is the abundance of information shown is not required to factor a day trade. Its actually very simple and takes a few minutes for each currency pair. Not shown was USD/AUD.

Here’s AUD/USD Today, Good until 10:00 am EST.

AUD/USD

Most Important 0.7667 and 0.7673 Vs 0.7689, 0.7694, 0.7699, 0.7704, 0.7709, 0.7714, 0.7719 and 0.7724
Bottom 0.7646 achieves by 0.7665 and 0.7655 
Upper target 0.7724
Continuation Fail 0.7704

Vital Break below for lower 0.7535

USD/AUD

Most Important 1.2955 and 1.2972 Vs 1.3020, 1.3028, 1.3036, 1.3045, 1.3053, 1.3061, 1.3069 and 1.3078

Bottom. 1.2946 achieves by 1.2979 and 1.2962

Upper target 1.3078

Continuation fail 1.3045

Vital Break 1.3289

Brian Twomey

USD Interest and Exchange Rates

Canada’s two main interest rates are CORRA or Canada Overnight Repo Rate Average and OMMFR or Overnight Money Market Finance Rate.

The proper position is OMMFR trades below CORRA in order to borrow low and sell high. OMMFR is the protection rate so CORRA never trades to zero or negative. And also so the exchange rate doesn’t trade out of control.

Many central banks offer a protection interest rate. The BOJ for example uses the Overnight Call rate Vs the Interest rate applied to Deposit Facility as protection rates. Both now trade at 0.979 Vs Deposit Facility at 0.90.

From the BOJ. However, with the completion of the deregulation of interest rates in 1994, the direct link between the official discount rate and deposit rates disappeared. In its place, various interest rates are now determined by arbitrage activities in financial markets. In such a situation, the previously adopted official discount rate is now called the basic loan rate — the loan rate applied to the Complementary Lending Facility — and acts as a ceiling on the uncollateralized overnight call rate.

A Floor and ceiling and where is found the exchange rate

Call rates trade above the deposit facility rate just as OMMFR trades above CORRA. These are misalignments as OMMFR must trade below CORRA and explains USD/CAD shorts. Japanese Call rates must trade below the Deposit Facility and explains USD/JPY shorts.

From CORRA and OMMFR comes next short term yields and the same for Japan and the BOJ.

Switzerland London, Libor 3
CHF CHF USD JPY GBP EUR

SARON M 1 Call money rate (Tomorrow next) M Money market debt register claims of the Swiss Confederat… 3-month M 2 1-month M 3-month M 6-month M 12-month M 3-month M 3-month M 3-month M 3-month M
2019-12 -0.659 -1.000 -0.751 -0.781 -0.688 -0.622 -0.481 1.908 -0.047 0.792 -0.414
2020-01 -0.702 -0.850 -0.762 -0.773 -0.690 -0.641 -0.506 1.751 -0.057 0.765 -0.416
2020-02 -0.707 -0.800 -0.762 -0.825 -0.735 -0.707 -0.602 1.463 -0.076 0.673 -0.471
2020-03 -0.666 -1.250 -0.750 -0.780 -0.655 -0.571 -0.452 1.451 -0.049 0.596 -0.255
2020-04 -0.659 -0.850 -0.719 -0.722 -0.583 -0.560 -0.441 0.556 -0.003 0.594 -0.185
2020-05 -0.660 -0.850 -0.734 -0.761 -0.651 -0.597 -0.478 0.344 -0.041 0.228 -0.347
2020-06 -0.662 -0.900 -0.734 -0.767 -0.676 -0.626 -0.472 0.302 -0.047 0.141 -0.422
2020-07 -0.704 -0.850 -0.738 -0.788 -0.705 -0.656 -0.528 0.249 -0.055 0.084 -0.445
2020-08 -0.706 -0.830 -0.746 -0.789 -0.720 -0.668 -0.525 0.241 -0.058 0.064 -0.509
2020-09 -0.714 -0.850 -0.746 -0.805 -0.781 -0.726 -0.598 0.234 -0.104 0.061 -0.520
2020-10 -0.718 -0.830 -0.790 -0.805 -0.767 -0.733 -0.625 0.216 -0.103 0.045 -0.530
2020-11 -0.721 -0.830 -0.805 -0.842 -0.784 -0.732 -0.612 0.228 -0.117 0.045 -0.552
2020-12 -0.726 -0.850 -0.782 -0.813 -0.764 -0.725 -0.610 0.238 -0.083 0.026 -0.566

Above is CHF and the SNB. The CALL Money Rate at 0.341 trades above Debt Register Claims at 0.249 and is misaligned. Explains USD/CHF shorts.

V39050: Overnight Money Market Financing Rate
V39050: Overnight Money Market Financing Rate

Low 2021-01-14 0.1973
Average 2021-01-11 — 2021-01-14 0.2010
High 2021-01-13 0.2047
Date V39050
2021-01-11 0.2005
2021-01-12 0.2015
2021-01-13 0.2047
2021-01-14 0.1973

Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA) (%): Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA) (%)
Low 2021-01-15 0.1500
Average 2021-01-11 — 2021-01-15 0.1880
High 2021-01-13 0.2000

Date Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA) (%)
2021-01-11 0.2000
2021-01-12 0.2000
2021-01-13 0.2000
2021-01-14 0.1900
2021-01-15 0.1500

Above is Canada and shown is OMMFR trades above CORRA and is misaligned. If one central bank has a problem then all have problems. Deeply affects the exchange rates. If OMMFR drops below CORRA then long USD/CAD. Debt Register Claims drops below Call Money rate then long USD/CHF. If Call rates drop below the Deposit facility then Long USD/JPY.

USD/JPY desperately requires an expansion of its interest rate range so USD/JPY will move. Until that happens, stay clear USD/JPY.

USD Vs EM

As CAD, JPY and CHF contains misalignments to its main interest rates so does EM currencies arranged as USD/Other currency.

USD/PLN.

From NBP or the Polish Central bank

Reference rate (minimum money market intervention rate) 1) 0.10 2020-05-29
Lombard rate 0.50 2020-05-29
NBP deposit rate 0.00 2020-05-29
Rediscount rate 0.11 2020-05-29
Discount rate 0.12 2020-05-29

The Discounts rates are barely hanging on. The Lombard Rate dropped from 2.50 since May 2020 while the Deposit rate dropped from 0.50 and headline sits at 0.10. Polish interest rates are misaligned as all USD currency pairs and explains shorts. May 2020, USD/PLN traded 4.24 and today 3.72.

Run through all central banks and what is found is misaligned interest rates and a problem for USD/Other Currency Pair

1 Month

Brian Twomey

Weekly Currency Prices

Posted January 3rd to long term forecast was currency prices inside wide ranges and far from significant MA break points. As averages move, ranges move however breaks are required to move from current wide ranges otherwise prices trade inside ranges and do nothing except slosh around. Examples were offered January 14th. Let’s compare 8 trade days later.

AUD/USD January 14 significant MA’s as follows: 0.7498 Vs 0.7821 or 323 pips
Today. 0.7530 Vs 0.7821 or 291 pips and a 32 pip drop to overall ranges.

Result: The bottom average is rising by 32 pips in 8 trade days. A showdown is on the way.

EUR/USD January 14 Significant MA’s as follows: 1.2119, 1.2020, 1.2038 Vs 1.2630. From 1.2119 to 1.2630 = 511 pips.

Today. 1.2116, 1.2020, 1.2030 vs 1.2628. From 1.2116 to 1.2628 = 512 pips. EUR/USD moved 1 pip in 8 trade days.

Result: Middle average 1.2030 is rose by 10 pips in 8 trade days.

USD/CAD January 14 Significant MA’s as follows: 1.2586 Vs 1.2924 and 1.2976. From 1.2586 to 1.2976 = 390 Pips.

Today. 1.2586, 1.2886 and 1.2976 or 390 pips and no change over 8 trade days.

GBP/USD January 14 Significant MA’s as follows: 1.3351 and 1.3360 Vs 1.3832 or 481 pips from 1.3832 to 1.3551.

Today. 1.3408 and 1.3360 to 1.3832. From 1.3832 to 1.3408 = 424 pips and a drop of 57 pips to overall ranges.

Result: A compression of 57 pips to overall ranges as the bottom average rose. Long way to go for the showdown.

GBP/JPY. January 14 Significant MA’s as follows: 139.25 Vs 144.31 and 146.14 ot 689 pips from 146.14 to 139.25.

Today. 139.76, Vs 144.31 and 146.14 or 689 pips from 139.15 to 146.14 or 638 pips from 146.14 to 139.76.

Result: Bottom average rose by 51 pips to compress ranges by exactly 51 pips.

The Week

GBP/CAD and GBP/JPY are overbought while GBP/CHF is overbought. What this implies is GBP/USD must also retain overbought status by no other choice and the bottom currency pairs remain in sync to each other. Nothing special to the long end and wide rangers GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD.

EUR/CAD at the 1.5499 close sits 3 pips from its break point at 1.5496 while GBP/CAD is massively overbought and an easy short trade.

EUR/CHF just broke 1.0780 and EUR/JPY sits on massive supports starting at 125.39.
As EUR cross pairs are mixed, it explains EUR/USD at dead neutral yet in wide range neutral from 1.2198 to 1.2114.

AUD/JPY 5 year average is located at 79.73 and 28 pips from the 80.01 close. AUD/JPY is the clear driver to AUD pairs, particularly AUD/USD and AUD/CAD.

NZD/JPY Just broke its 5 year average at 74.59 and a significant break. NZD/JPY like its counterpart AUD/JPY is the clear driver to all NZD pairs, especially to NZD/USD and NZD/CAD.

USD/CAD sits 200 below its significant point at 1.2585 and 200 pips above 1.2924 and 1.2976.

USD/JPY sits below its vital break at 104.25 and traded below its significant point for the last 3 or 4 weeks while EUR/USD trades above at 1.2030.

The week overall, Range and more Ranges.

Brian Twomey

Close Price Forecast Results

The close price forecast not only informs to the Friday morning trade for longs and shorts but immediately alerts to neutral, overbought or oversold positions to begin the next week. Full parameters to next week’s trade is fully known and the factoring begins as significant levels for the week are also known long in advance to Sunday’s open.

Currency prices for most week’s of the year begin at neutral positions and end at neutral. The close price forecast is assumed prices will again end at neutrality. Currency prices correct or extremely close to forecast ended in nearly perfect neutral such as EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY.

GBP pairs were off by about 30 ish and 40 pips pips and ended the week in overbought. AUD and NZD pairs were off by a few pips however both finished in neutrality. Neutral contains ranges and certain weeks very wide or other weeks very short. What matters is the significant level to break to declare neutrality.

GBP/USD for example closed above overbought 1.3642 and GBP/JPY above 141.36 while EUR/USD only required a status of neutral to a close below 1.2198 and EUR/JPY 126.32. EUR/JPY closed at 126.22. EUR/USD traded in neutral territory all day Friday on a break below 1.2198.

Note the similarities to the forecast and proximity to all the currency price relationships. We will hit a Friday when all forecasts hit perfectly and for all currency pairs.

Close Prices

EUR/USD 1.2155, actual 1.2169 off 14 pips
EUR/JPY 125.88, actual 126.22, off 34 pips
EUR/NZD 1.6998, actual 1.6945 off 53 pips and an extra 50 pips in your pocket.
EUR/AUD 1.5779, actual 1.5771, off 8 pips.

GBP

GBP/USD 1.3611 and under 1.3642, actual 1.3671, off 29 pips from 1.3642 and off 60 pips from 1.3611.
GBP/JPY 140.90 and under 141.36, actual 141.95 and off 59 pips from 141.36 and 105 pips from 140.90.
GBP/CHF 1.2062, actual 1.2106, off 44 pips
GBP/CAD 1.7292, actual 1.7417. Ended massive overbought.
GBP/NZD 1.8985, actual 1.9033, off 48 pips
GBP/AUD 1.7675, actual 1.7728, off 53 pips, Same as EUR/NZD.

AUD

AUD/USD 0.7683, actual 0.7710, off 27 pips
AUD/JPY 79.71, actual 80.01, off 30 pips. The 5 year average 79.73.
AUD/CHF 0.6795, actual 0.6829, off 34 pips, same as EUR/JPY.
AUD/CAD 0.9791, actual 0.9823, off 32 pips.

NZD

NZD/USD 0.7149, actual 0.7174, off 25 pips. AUD/USD off 27 pips.
NZD/JPY 74.19, actual 74.44, off 25 pips. Same as NZD/USD. NZD/JPY 5 year average 74.59.
NZD/CHF 0.6348, actual 0.6363, off 15 pips
NZD/CAD 0.9114, actual 0.9154, off 40 pips

CAD and JPY

USD/CAD 1.2713, actual 1.2729, off 16 pips. Same as NZD/CHF
USD/JPY 103.56, actual 103.73, off 17 pips.

Brian Twomey

Closing Prices

Last week’s GBP/USD close price forecast was 1.3583 and under 1.3615. At exactly 4.59, GBP/USD went into extraordinary prices as 1.3615 traded then a massive drop to 1.3585 then 1.3575 and back to 1.3590’s and the close at 1.3575.

Way back in the day and long before 2016, GBP/USD had habits of a massive 100 and 150 drop or rise without warning. The explanation then as was probably the result last Friday at 4:59 was a giant GBP trade went through late in the day just before the close. Back then, the drop or rise was explained by 1 Yard or a 1 billion GBP trade went through.

Close Prices

EUR/USD 1.2155

EUR/JPY 125.88

EUR/NZD 1.6998

EUR/AUD 1.5779

GBP/USD 1.3611 and under 1,3642

GBP/JPY 130.90 and under 141.36

GBP/CHF 1.2062

GBP/CAD 1.7295

GBP/NZD 1.8985

GBP/AUD 1.7675

AUD/USD 0.7683

AUD/JPY 79.71

AUD/CHF 0.6795

AUD/CAD 0.9791

NZD/USD 0.7149

NZD/JPY 74.19

NZD/CHF 0.6348

NZD/CAD 0.9114

USD/CAD 1.2713

USD/JPY 103.56

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD Day Trade: Day 2

Yesterday was ECB. Yesterday could’ve been Non Farm Payrolls, Biden Election, or Elections in Timbuktu or any economic release. EUR/USD and all currency day trades maintain day trade ranges.

EUR/USD Moved barely 30ish pip on ECB and nothing for Lagarde. Central banks see traders coming and purposely prevent movements. Explains why never trade a central bank meeting because the big moves expected are rarely seen.

Think the times to trade. Day Trade 1:30 a.m. EST to 10:00 a.m. EST. The ECB at 7:00 am is 5 1/2 hours into the day trade. All the best, easiest and most profitable exchange rates already traded and nothing exist to trade ECB or Lagarde.

Think times to trade the FED. Well the FED meets at 2:00 pm EST and 1 1/2 hours into the 12:30 Fed Rates. The pros and central banks with fast computers and using the exact same day trade / interest rate system as I use, already traded the best, easiest and profitable exchange rates. At this point, it doesn’t matter a hill of beans what a statement or press conference is said because exchange rates won’t move.

Think economic announcements for Europe, UK and the United States. At 4 and 5 am EST and at 2 1/2 and 3 1/2 hours into a day trade, not much movements will be seen. The best exchange rates traded. At United States 8:30 am EST and 7 hours into the day trade, the best exchange rates traded. Unless the release comes out as not expected to consensus forecasts.

As seen from day trades, no mysteries exist to where prices will trade because we know at 1:30 exactly what will trade or not trade. And we know exactly where to click and not to click for profits.

I never understood these traders sitting in trade rooms for central bank meetings only to be disappointed. Then we have these ” I’m always wrong Yohay ‘ types to offer entries and exits when they don’t have a clue what they say or do. Goncalo has a CMT designation meanwhile, these people can’t hit a 5 pip trade to save their lives. Goncalo destroyed Fxstreet’s signal service.

Required to trade the day trades correctly is a pencil, paper and $4 calculator. And maybe 5 minutes for each currency pair. Takes just over 1 hour to factor 9 currency pairs for day trades. Then the day is set and ready.

The exchange rate must be viewed for what it is truly and its an interest rate because each interest rate has a correspondent exchange rate associated to it. Certain day trade exchange rates are more important than others. Most Important is truly most important. Exchange rates in between are guides to follow every traded exchange rate but are not vitally important.

A support and resistance exchange rates change everyday and sometimes by much and other times not very much at all. But support and resistance points are guaranteed to change because interest rates change. The new daily support and resistance points must be known to watch for a break or a hold situation. The points and my system is perfect because its correspondent to the interest rate.

Interested will find the old “how to trade” previous 8:30 am ECB fix prices from 2015 here on site and with many, many examples and detailed explanations. Nothing changed since 2015 for day trades except the times to trade and the deep slowdown of prices.

What we see today from traders is not trade by interest rates but trade exchange rates by exchange rates. Fibonacci is wrong, charts are wrong, chart indicators to include MA’s are wrong and especially wrong is pivot points.

But this is all we see today. I assure all, these types don’t have a clue what they say or do and are extremely dangerous to trades and trading. They enter and exit at the wrong exchange rates and guess to targets for unknown profits.

The goal to trades and trading is to maximize profit pips because not many pips trade anymore since the new 2016 interest rate revamp by central banks. Then must know the times to trade and not to trade.

Never trade between 10:00 am and 12:30 Fed because all central banks are in the market to price their currencies. Unless one knows exactly what they are doing then stay away because traders are dealing with true FX trade pro’s with extremely fast computers and central banks.

I always said most traders don’t know the correct prices to enter and exit so they can’t possibly know when profits were taken by pro traders and central banks. Theyare trading guesses.

The EUR/USD and all currencies are priced daily 15 times in a 24 hour period by central banks. This is a job in itself to maintain and know correct prices to enter and exit. But trading life changed since 2016 and the slowdown to price movements. Today’s traders wouldn’t survive 10 minutes based on pre 2016 price movements.

I’m fully documented 60 + times by Peter Wadkins commentaries in Thomson Reuters way back in 2012 to 2015 and 2016 ish. Those were days of great FX movements and I traded correctly with Peter and Jonathan Clarke from Peter’s famed phrase Cycle Gurus. Jonathan and Peter were the best of the bunch trading in public then.

Then I used math formulas but others used Treasury Yield curves. Examples are on site here and a great way to trade, especially for long term targets of 500 and 1000 pips.

Three ways exist to trade currencies these days. By interest rates as I do, Treasury or whatever nation Yield curves and math formulas. All the rest is not correct. Math formulas must include statistics and Regression is another great way to trade correctly. This stuff is very simple to know, learn and apply.

But these days, traders got deeply lost on understanding and correct trades and trading. The pros know this and its why they are never seen anymore. They went into hiding by disgust to what they see today. Peter Wadkins is one example and many others I know.

Fx was gone and lost when enter and target = profits. This brought out all the incompetents of our day. Then came incompetent currency analysts and Bank research reports not worth the paper its written on. Way back, bank research was hard to obtain and they were expert but today, they suck. Nobody brings or writes true FX commentary anymore.

A typical contributor article at FX street.

Enter = profits. 4 hour chart. Mention Covid or Biden. Include yesterday’s non useable information. Show a chart. And voila not only front page status but might be included on the best traders of the world list and host premium webinars. Or god only knows to today’s criminal offenses against good and decent traders who want profits but instead find disaster.

Que sera sera as they say in Barcelona.

Here’s today EUR/USD day trade. What changed since yesterday morning? 34 pips. What changed Since last evening Overnight Asia session ? 1 pip.

We’re dealing with a joke to trades these days. truly a joke. The laugh is enter = profits is still not correct by today’s traders despite a deep slowdown in price movements.

I’ve been looking to show AUD/USD as the new fixed exchange rates and GBP/USD Vs USD/CAD day trades as perfect opposites and how to trade by day trades but the pips between GBP/USD and USD/CAD aren’t running perfectly. Both are off by 5 pips.

EUR/USD

 Long Short Line 1.2166

Most Important 1.2124 and 1.2141 Vs 1.2173, 1.2181, 1.2189, 1.2197, 1.2212, 1.2220 and 1.2228

Bottom. 1.2104 achieves by 1.2136 and 1.2119 
Upper target 1.2228
Continuation fail 1.2197

Brian Twomey

USD/HUF

USD/HUF represents the last of the big 6 EM currency pairs arranged as USD/ Other Currency and the best USD movers.

From current price at 293.28, USD/HUF to move higher must break 296.12 and 298.26 to target 301.66, 302.51 and 303.36.

Below big breaks begin at 291.27 then 286.43 and the 5 year average at 285.01. The larger range trades 296.12 to 286.43.

From current 293.28 and consistent to all USD pairs to include USD/CAD, USD/JPY and other EM currency pairs, 200 pips represents massive supports to either break higher or much lower.

Break of 286.43 and the 5 year average at 285.01 targets 279.67 and 274.33.
Overall, USD/HUF remains in ranges and not overbought nor oversold. The long term target is currently 288.96.

While USD/HUF must break 296.00 and 298 to move higher, EUR/HUF at current 356.88 must break 358.54 to travel higher and target 360.05 and 360.43.

Both USD/HUF and EUR/HUF trade below most vital averages which means a breakout is on the way. By a quick view, EUR/HUF medium and long term is massively overbought.

Brian Twomey

The Day Trade: EUR/USD Vs USD/EUR

The day trade by interest rates are traded as the currency pair and its opposite. EUR/USD for example is traded as EUR/USD and USD/EUR. GBP/USD is traded as GBP/USD and USD/GBP. USD/JPY and JPY/USD. The central banks offer interest rates and inform everyday how to trade the day trades. They literally give trades.

The daily range of a day trade = 1/2 EUR/USD and the other 1/2 as USD/EUR. Which means very little of EUR/USD trades everyday and very little of USD/EUR. But together as EUR/USD only, a move looks normal and big when in fact, the move is tiny.

EUR/USD day trades today until 10:00 a.m. EST because then the ECB comes into the markets and the daily trade must re factor for a brand new trade. This applies to all currency pairs. The actual time for day trades is 1:30 am to 10:00 am EST for 7 1/2 hours of trading. This system doesn’t favor American traders.

With FX, everything works on a -3 and +3 system. Z Scores, Kurtosis, Skew all work on a -3 and =3 system. Major banks factor weekly position sizes to each currency pair based on either a -3 and +3 system or -1 and +1. Volume is based on -3 and +3. No matter where one looks and factors, -3 and +3 rules the markets.

Daily trades are based on a -3 and +3 system. The central banks figured it all out for traders and its in the trader’s interest to apply it to trades. Its all based on moving averages but a moving average day trade system unique and very specific to day trades and not seen in current indicators, fibs and whatever else is employed by traders.

Today EUR/USD as everyday factors to different levels, ranges and targets. This will seem complicated but its very simple to trade and apply. The explanation is more detailed to the actual trade in practice.

EUR/USD

Long short Line 1.2134
Most Important 1.2091, 1.2099 and 1.2108 Vs 1.2141, 1.2149, 1.2156, 1.2164, 1.2171, 1.2179, 1.2187 and 1.2195
Bottom. 1.2073 achieves by 1.2103 and 1.2088
Upper target 1.2195
Continuation fail 1.2164

Today USD/EUR

Long Short Line 0.8241
Most Important 0.8211 and 0.8223 Vs 0.8246, 0.8251, 0.8257, 0.8263, 0.8268, 0.8273, 0.8278 and 0.8283.
Bottom. 0.8199 achieves by 0.8220, 0.8214 and 0.8209
Upper target 0.8283
Continuation Fail 0.8263

Ranges

From EUR/USD Long Short line to bottom = 61 pips and full potential = 122 pips.
From USD/EUR Long Short Line to Bottom = 42 pips and full potential = 84 pips.

EUR/USD above 1.2134 = 1.2141, 1.2149, 1.2156, 1.2164, 1.2171, 1.2179, 1.2187 and 1.2195. Most vital is above intervals are running today 7 then 8 pips. This means all EUR pairs arranged as EUR/Other Pair is running 7 then 8 pip intervals.

EUR/USD above = 1.2141, 1.2149, 1.2156, 1.2164, 1.2171, 1.2179, 1.2187 and 1.2195
USD/EUR above 0.8241 = 0.8246, 0.8251, 0.8257, 0.8263, 0.8268, 0.8273, 0.8278 and 0.8283. USD/EUR above is running 5 pip intervals except from 0.8251 to 0.8257 and 0.8257 to 08263.

EUR/USD. Above points as USD/EUR = 1.2127, 1.2119, 1.2110, 1.2102, 1.2094, 1.2087, 1.2080,
USD/EUR above points as EUR/USD = 0.8236, 0.8231, 0.8226, 0.8216, 0.8210, 0.8205 and 0.8200.

EUR/USD Below 1.2134 = 1.2108, 1.2103, 1.2095, 1.2091, 1.2088, 1.2080, 1.2073. Running non normal at 5, 8, 4, 3, 8 then 7 pip intervals.
USD/EUR below = 0.8236, 0.8232, 0.8227, 0.8223, 0.8220, 0.8215, 0.8211, 0.8209, 0.8204 0.8199. Running 4, 5, 4, 3, 4, 2, 5, then 5.

USD/EUR below as EUR/USD = 1.2141, 1.2147, 1.2155, 1.2161, 1.2165, 1.2172, 1.2178, 1.2181, 1.2189, 1.2196.
EUR/USD below as USD/EUR = 0.8259, 0.8262, 0.8267, 0.8270, 0.8272, 0.8278, 0.8282.

42 USD/EUR is an uneven number and will result in uneven pips while 61 EUR/USD is an uneven number and will result in uneven pips. Applies today, may not apply at 10 am or tomorrow. Interest rates determine the daily set up.

Most Important are vital averages.

EUR/USD below 1.2091 and 1.2099 or 8 pip interval Vs Continuation Fail 1.2164 and Upper target 1.2195.
USD/EUR below most vital 0.8223 and 0.8211 Vs Continuation fail 0.8262 and Upper target 0.8283.

EUR/USD vital as USD/EUR = 0.8270 and 0.8265 Vs 0.8220 and 0.8200.
USD/EUR as EUR/USD = 1.2161, 1.2178, 1.2103 and 1.2072.

EUR/USD Vs USD/EUR is an opposite relationship as EUR/USD travels higher then USD/EUR travels lower. As EUR/USD travels lower then USD/EUR travels higher.

The daily range and daily trade is always located within EUR/USD and USD/EUR. An extreme rare day to see EUR/USD or USD/EUR ranges break outside of normal boundaries. If ever that rare tine happens then any pips outside the boundaries must trade back inside tha ranges. Pips outside the boundaries are free money pips.

GBP are the only pairs to break daily ranges but it doesn’t happen very often. When it does happen then its free money as pips must trade back to ranges.

This system began in the 1970’s when interest and exchange rates were allowed free float status. Central banks changed this system over the years as in 2015 /2016. They are now studying and slowly applying the Risk free Interest rate. Please trust these words as I’ve traded daily interest rates twice daily since 2016. Risk free interest rates won’t have any bearing on the daily trade.

Negative and positive interest rates are meaningless as interest rates are interest rates and it doesn’t matter if they are positive or negative. The daily trade result is the exact same.

This won’t go over well but its impossible to lose on day trades and money is guaranteed. They key and what central banks devised is a perfect math system. And its very simple to apply, trade and profit.

What separates us as traders from the vast majority is we performed the extensive research offered by central banks then applied the research to trades and perfected our trade systems to not lose. Weekly and long term trades are just as accurate as the correct math is applied. Now and then a funny or weird price week is seen but overall prices always run normal. Most vital is and not needed is stops, charts, Fibs and whatever else is out there.

Brian Twomey

USD/PLN and USD/BRL

From the weekly trade round up posted Sunday and the factor to trade averages perfectly.
EUR/CHF must break 1.0794 to head higher, EUR/CHF today hit 1.0794 then dropped to 1.0771.

EUR/JPY must break 125.49 to move higher, EUR/JPY broke 71 pips higher to 126.20.
EUR/CAD at richter scale oversold from 1.5382 close. EUR/CAD traded 98 pips higher to 1.5480.

USD/JPY `104.33 held.

NZD/USD sits at perfect neutral. Weekly range 0.7095 to 0.7148 or 53 pips.

EUR/GBP must break 0.9002. Held.

EUR/AUD higher and EUR/AUD traded higher.

USD/RON short 4.0324 to target 4.0012. Lows 4.0082 or +242 pips.

How about Friday close prices. GBP/JPY 141.04. Closed 141.03. AUD/USD 0.7693, closed 0.7700.

And on and on its goes, week after week and year after year. correct as usual.

            USD/PLN.

To move higher, USD/PLN must break 3.7519, 3.7634 then 3.8042. Current USD/PLN trades in a 1049 pip range from 3.7634 to 3.6585.

The mid point to 3.7634 to 3.6585 is located at 3.7110 and USD/PLN trades current at 3.7331. Or 200 pips.

Note 200 pips and USD as written.

The USD/JPY bottoms are close at 102.00’s and nearly 200 pips. USD/CAD 200 pip bottoms at 1.2500’s. USD 200 pip bottoms means all currencies listed as USD/Other pair are all close to major bottoms at 200 ish pips.

If 3.6585 ever broke then target becomes 3.5814. USD/PLN will maintain a 3 handle for years upon years into the future.

Note EUR/PLN at 4.5377. All EUR cross pairs arranged as EUR/other pair all trade with higher exchange rates above USD counterparts. USD/PLN at current 3.7327 and current EUR/PLN 4.5288 or 7961 pips.

USD/PLN strategy is long around the mid point at 3.7110 to target 3.7372 easily. Currently oversold from 3.8042.

USD/BRL.

BRL is the only currency outside of Black Box currencies to negotiate a daily trade price rather than the usual FIX price formula employed by central banks. Banks negotiate the daily trade trade price everyday in Rio De Janeiro at US EST 11.00 am.

USD/BRL just broke vital 5.3193 and now trades 5.3581. BRL will travel to its next big break at 5.3796 then the short point at 5.3947 and 5.4022 to target the break at 5.3796 to 5.3645.

USD/BRL vital supports are located at 4.7185 and 4.1694. One day, deeply overbought USD/RL will trade a 4 handle. The first destination is 5.0189 then 4.8687.

The big 3 to overall USD currency pairs are USD/TRY with a 7 handle then USD/BRL at 5 then USD/PLN with a 3 exchange rate.

Brian Twomey

USD/CAD and BOC Interest Rates

Canada’s two main interest rates are CORRA or Canada Overnight Repo Rate Average and OMMFR or Overnight Money Market Finance Rate.

The proper position is OMMFR trades below CORRA in order to borrow low an sell high. OMMFR is the protection rate so CORRA never trades to zero or negative. And also so the exchange rate doesn’t trade out of control.

Many central banks offer a protection interest rate. The BOJ for example uses the Overnight Call rate Vs the Interest rate applied to Deposit Facility as protection rates. Both now trade at 0.979 Vs Deposit Facility at 0.90.

From the BOJ. However, with the completion of the deregulation of interest rates in 1994, the direct link between the official discount rate and deposit rates disappeared. In its place, various interest rates are now determined by arbitrage activities in financial markets. In such a situation, the previously adopted official discount rate is now called the basic loan rate — the loan rate applied to the Complementary Lending Facility — and acts as a ceiling on the uncollateralized overnight call rate.

A Floor and ceiling and where is found the exchange rate

Call rates trade above the deposit facility rate just as OMMFR trades above CORRA. These are misalignments as OMMFR must trade below CORRA and explains USD/CAD shorts.

From CORRA and OMMFR comes next short term yields and the same for Japan and the BOJ.

Switzerland	London, Libor 3
CHF	CHF	USD	JPY	GBP	EUR
SARON M 1	Call money rate (Tomorrow next) M	Money market debt register claims of the Swiss Confederat… 3-month M 2	1-month M	3-month M	6-month M	12-month M	3-month M	3-month M	3-month M	3-month M
2019-12	-0.659	-1.000	-0.751	-0.781	-0.688	-0.622	-0.481	1.908	-0.047	0.792	-0.414
2020-01	-0.702	-0.850	-0.762	-0.773	-0.690	-0.641	-0.506	1.751	-0.057	0.765	-0.416
2020-02	-0.707	-0.800	-0.762	-0.825	-0.735	-0.707	-0.602	1.463	-0.076	0.673	-0.471
2020-03	-0.666	-1.250	-0.750	-0.780	-0.655	-0.571	-0.452	1.451	-0.049	0.596	-0.255
2020-04	-0.659	-0.850	-0.719	-0.722	-0.583	-0.560	-0.441	0.556	-0.003	0.594	-0.185
2020-05	-0.660	-0.850	-0.734	-0.761	-0.651	-0.597	-0.478	0.344	-0.041	0.228	-0.347
2020-06	-0.662	-0.900	-0.734	-0.767	-0.676	-0.626	-0.472	0.302	-0.047	0.141	-0.422
2020-07	-0.704	-0.850	-0.738	-0.788	-0.705	-0.656	-0.528	0.249	-0.055	0.084	-0.445
2020-08	-0.706	-0.830	-0.746	-0.789	-0.720	-0.668	-0.525	0.241	-0.058	0.064	-0.509
2020-09	-0.714	-0.850	-0.746	-0.805	-0.781	-0.726	-0.598	0.234	-0.104	0.061	-0.520
2020-10	-0.718	-0.830	-0.790	-0.805	-0.767	-0.733	-0.625	0.216	-0.103	0.045	-0.530
2020-11	-0.721	-0.830	-0.805	-0.842	-0.784	-0.732	-0.612	0.228	-0.117	0.045	-0.552
2020-12	-0.726	-0.850	-0.782	-0.813	-0.764	-0.725	-0.610	0.238	-0.083	0.026	-0.566

above is CHF and the SNB. The CALL Money Rate at 0.341 trades above Debt Register Claims at 0.249 and is misaligned.

V39050: Overnight Money Market Financing Rate

V39050: Overnight Money Market Financing Rate
Low	2021-01-14	0.1973
Average	2021-01-11 — 2021-01-14	0.2010
High	2021-01-13	0.2047

Date	V39050
2021-01-11	0.2005
2021-01-12	0.2015
2021-01-13	0.2047
2021-01-14	0.1973

Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA) (%): Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA) (%)

Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA) (%): Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA) (%)
Low	2021-01-15	0.1500
Average	2021-01-11 — 2021-01-15	0.1880
High	2021-01-13	0.2000

Date	Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA) (%)
2021-01-11	0.2000
2021-01-12	0.2000
2021-01-13	0.2000
2021-01-14	0.1900
2021-01-15	0.1500

Above is Canada and OMMFR trades above CORRA and is misaligned. If one central bank has a problem then all have problems. Deeply affects the exchange rates. If OMMFR drops below CORRA then long USD/CAD. Debt Register Claims drops below Call Money rate then long USD/CHF.

USD/JPY desperately requires an expansion of its interest rate range so USD/JPY will move. Until that happens, stay clear USD/JPY.

So Canada Wednesday meeting. Don’t see why a change in rates.

Brian Twomey

USD/JPY and USD/TRY

The synopsis to current posts is the final result to run currency pairs through the long term MA model. Its an exercise required every 6 months to 1 year or longer because a move of 3 and 500 pips hardly moves the averages.

USD/JPY averages for example hasn’t changed in nearly 2 years. The next reason is it depends on the targets and target achievement. GBP/USD for example at 1.1900 lows retained a target of 1.3400’s. No need to touch the model again until 1.3400’s traded.

The model is not only perfect to trade long term targets but targets 1000’s of pips away from current prices hit exactly. Many, many long term trades were demonstrated here on these pages throughout past years.

18 currency pairs were previously posted from G28 currencies and now I’m running through the major EM pairs such as USD/PLN, USD/HUF, USD/BRL, USD/TRY. For USD/RON and USD/MYR was posted yesterday morning. Ultimately, we want trades at targets of 5, 7 and 1000 pips without doing anything except wait for targets to hit.

USD/JPY

The topside to USD/JPY to move higher must break 105.53 then 106.01. USD/JPY then becomes stuck in 100 pip ranges as next breaks come at 107.10 and 108.02. At 108.00’s if it ever trades then short strategy is the only way. From 105.53 and 106.01 are averages without movements in about 2 years.

USD/JPY bottoms are solid at 103.16 at the 10 year average then 102.56 and 102.40. The 14 year average is located at 102.22 so a break of 103.16 then means USD/JPY ranges from 103.16 to 102.33.

As posted Sunday, Big break to move higher is located at 104.33. Today, the average is 104.33. No movements. A break targets 105.53 and a 100 pip range from 104.33 to 105.53.
Current range 103.16 to 104.33 or 117 pips.

USD/JPY correlates to EUR/USD at -98%.

While USD/JPY must break 104.33, EUR/USD break is located today at 1.2028 and down 3 pips from Sunday’s post. Better pairs exist than trade USD/JPY. Same story last year although USD/JPY broke 106.00’s then 105.00’s for a 300 pips trade. Not worth the time.

USD/TRY

USD/TRY sits on vital averages at 6.5578 and 5.4164. Not only is USD/TRY light years overbought but should and will eventually trade to its target at 5.9686. This means 6.5578 will eventually break lower.

The higher USD/TRY moves then the more overbought it becomes and the more pips to profit. The shortest of shortest averages are moving USD/TRY higher. I would adopt a short only strategy.

The first big break is located at 7.5208 then 6.5578. The 5 year average is located at 4.8848. Ranges for USD/TRY are massive at 900 and 1300 pips. The current range is 1400 pips and also reveals the 6 handle can easily trade.

EUR/USD correlates to USD/TRY at -0.01% and Sunday at -0.04. This correlation should be miles higher to separate EUR/USD to USD/TRY. Clearly, USD/TRY is off kilter and the pair to rightsize the Correlation problem.

1 week

1 month

First analysis to posted charts is crossovers as these are easy, guaranteed and most profitable trades.

Second is understand alignments and misalignments. Alignments are arranged by order of exchange rates. Trades are located in misalignments by eye ball view.

GBP for example.

Proper alignment as follows: GBP/CHF, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD

Same for EUR as EUR/CHF, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD.

AUD as AUD/CHF, AUD/USD, AUD/JPY then AUD/CAD.

NZD/ as NZD/CHF, NZD/USD, NZD/JPY and NZD/CAD.

Top currencies can bring down the bottom and bottom can bring up the tops.

Brian Twomey

Thank you all to assist our long time friend, currency trader, fair, honest and most decent UK lady at http://www.tantalumwatches.com