From oversold and neutral positions as reported in weekly commentary, the breakout occurred to anchor currencies and led by EUR/USD to travel 75 pips higher and GBP/USD at 114 pips. AUD/USD jumped 143 pips and NZD/USD 128 pips.
DXY achieved 92.35 highs and 43 pips from its next level at 92.78. At current 91.61, DXY trades in range from 91.43 to the 10 year monthly average bottom at 89.95. DXY break above 91.43 trades the 135 pips range from 91.43 to 92.78. Overall DXY position is low and deeply oversold.
EUR/USD and its Non USD partners currently trade overbought from 1.1999, AUD/USD from 0.7748, NZD/USD 0.7165 and GBP/USD at 1.3985.
EUR/USD lower must sustain below 1.1986 to target next 1.1958 and 1.1943. A significant break below 1.1929 target a lower EUR/USD.
AUD/USD below 0.7748 targets 0.7658 then 0.7636 on a break of 0.7703.
NZD/USD below 0.7165 targets 0.7092 on a break of 0.7128.
GBP/USD below 1.3846 targets 1.3767, 1.3728 and deep caution at 1.3688.
USD/CAD deeply oversold at 1.2467 and targets 1.2536 then 1.2551 and 1.2583.
USD/CHF sits deeply oversold 0.9222 and 0.9248. USD/CHF big line above is located at 0.9248 to target 0.9274, 0.9287 and 0.9301.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY for April is traditional budget years for Japan. USD/JPY traditional pattern for April is down months. Since 2000 or 21 months, USD/JPY was down 12 months and up 9 months. A fairly 50/ 50 spotty record.
From 2000 to 2008, USD/JPY was down 4 months and up 5 months. From 2008 to 2021, USD/JPY was down 8 months and up 4 months. A return to normality.
USD/JPY is decided by 109.59 above and 108.71 below. Below 108.71 targets 108.28. Above 109.59 targets 110.02, 110.24 and 110.46.
Brian Twomey
BRIAN TWOMEY ON TRADING 