The RBNZ releases interest rates at 10 am NZD time or 6 pm EST then mid rates at 11:00 am or 7 pm EST. NZD exchange rates are released shortly after. Fed Funds dropped to 0.08 yesterday from 0.09. Seems miniscule but enough to drop the USD interest rate curve by 18 points and this is a huge move for any nation’s intertest rate curve. Forces massive adjustments to every nation to align with USD.
NZD/USD began the Asia session at 0.6994 against vital break for higher at 0.7012. As Fed interest rates dropped, RBNZ interest rates and NZD/USD at 0.7012 was enough to push NZD over the line and a free trade for 8:00 pm EST or 12 PM NZD time.

NZD/USD traded 38 pips or a day trade by RBNZ fix standards.

Free trade as traders then anticipate at 8:00 pm EST NZD to the China FIX 1 hour later. Times to trade and central bank developments is extraordinary crucial to enter and exit prices. For charts, use the 1 hour and only 1 hour because it captures the hourly by hourly market changes.

NZD/USD lower must break 0.7017. As NZD broke and traveled higher, watch USD/CAD 1.2554 for lower and USD/JPY 109.58, EUR/USD 1.1845, GBP/USD 1.3813.

NZD/USD as lowest exchange rate broke first and enough to push non USD much higher.
AUD/USD trades in a massive range from 0.7397 to 0.7353. No threat to move significantly higher unless AUD trades above 0.7406.

EUR/USD as written over many weeks, long only to at least middle 1.1800’s. Here we are and the moment of truth to head much higher or lower.

CAD/CHF achieved 0.7288 from 0.7217 against reported target at 0.7267. A free and extra 20 pips and enough to push USD/CAD lower.


Australia’s Real GDP or GDP minus Inflation recorded -2.5 last and 1.1 for nominal. Real GDP is factored and watched by central banks. See the RBNZ website.

Consensus is 9.2. From Real GDP and 10 + years of data, the best GDP records is 3.87. The ranges are extraordinarily wide. GDP could easily trade from minus 1.0 to as high as 3.87.
Vast majority of the averages are located in the 2.0’s. Tough haul for 9.2.

View GBP only from year to year because it aligns to averages.

Brian Twomey

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