EUR/USD and GBP/USD begin the week oversold while AUD/USD and NZD/USD start at massive overbought. Last week’s EUR/USD at 1.1620 and 1.1665 is now 1.1617 and 1.1659. GBP/USD last week at 1.3840 is now 1.3841 and 1.3855.
EUR/USD and USD/CAD begins the week oversold. EUR/USD sits just above the 5 year average at 1.1487. EUR/USD targets 1.1255 on a break. USD/CAD trades just above its 5 year average at 1.2212. A break targets 1.1800’s.
While GBP/USD 1.3841 and 1.3855 covers the upside, below exists 1.3486 and 1.3415.
GBP/USD’s price path is factored as 1.3087, 1.3117, 1.3124, 1.3241, 1.3359, 1.3415, 1.3486, 1.3706, 1.3774, 1.3841 and 1.3855.
Lower GBP/USD is supported by EUR/GBP as the 10 and 15 year averages sit just below at 0.8421 and 0.8402. If EUR/GBP breaks below then GBP/USD targets again 1.3841 and 1.3855.
USD/CHF sits at oversold to extremes and matches oversold USD/CAD while USD/JPY as the outlier for the week, begins overbought. USD/JPY overbought assists lower to JPY cross pairs. GBP/JPY at 155.00’s is down 300 pips from 158.00’s, EUR/JPY down 200 from 133.00’s.
USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs contain light years of downside yet to trade. The strategy over next months is short and GBP/JPY is the leader to dictate direction for all JPY cross pairs.
The currency market contention remains EUR/USD Vs USD/CAD as both trade above 5 year averages. EUR/USD or USD/CAD must break in order to open wider trading ranges, particularly for GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD as most effected by USD/CAD.
Deeply oversold EUR/CAD higher must break 1.4484, 1.4557 and 1.4574 then EUR/CAD opens to a 400 pip trade range from 1.4500’s to 1.4900’s. GBP/CAD faces massive resistance on the way up from 1.7066, 1.7145, 1.7288 and 1.7337. GBP/CAD doesn’t walk through current levels easily.
USD/CAD higher is assisted by massive overbought CAD/EM and richter scale overbought CAD/ZAR while EUR/USD higher is supported by overbought CAD/ZAR and USD/JPY.
AUD/USD is the far better short trade than NZD as AUD/USD short is well supported by massive overbought AUD/EM across all currencies and the same currencies we’ve tracked over last months. The best AUD/EM short is AUD/TRY but take your pick as all AUD/EM currencies offer free money trades.
AUD/USD price path is located at 0.7285, 0.7311, 0.7398, 0.7458, 0.7691, 0.7825, 0.8103 and 0.8345.
NZD/USD was described last week as a mixed bag and for the most part, mixed bag characterizes overall NZD for the past month to include NZD/EM. The positive to NZD is the beginning to NZD/USD aligning properly to its cross pairs and NZD/EM. While NZD/USD begins the week overbought, the degree to overbought is nothing special. The big NZD/USD trade is in alignment stages and for the week we are short.
NZD/USD price path is located at 0.6848, 0.6864, 0.6923, 0.7047, 0.7078, 0.7096, 0.7253 and 0.7291. NZD over the past month not only lacks a trading range but averages are compressing and affecting all cross pairs and NZD/EM. The best NZD currency is NZD/JPY.
The worst NZD currency is NZD/CHF. AUD/CHF and CAD/CHF offer much better trade opportunities for the week.
Watch GBP/AUD for the week as GBP/AUD sits just above big levels at 1.8090 and 1.7932.
CHF/JPY at 124.00’s offers an incredible short opportunity as CHF/JPY remains massive overbought to averages dating to 1999. Overbought was the result to positive correlations to USD/JPY. Look for USD/JPY short at 114.33 for the week as next targets are located at 113.28 then 112.87. Lower USD/JPY will assist to CHF/JPY shorts.
10 year Yield.
From September 29 post to the 10 year yield, the range was located from 1.6146 to 1.8696. Over the past 3 weeks, 1.6146 broke lower to 1.5080 and highs were located at 1.7020. Lower 10 year yield assisted to Gold’s rise. The 10 year yield at 1.5080 is located from 1.5182 – 1.4941 as posted September 29. No mysteries to entries and targets ever exist.
The 10 year yield from the close at 1.5610 offers bottoms at 1.5531. The daily price path over next days is located from 1.5404, 1.5495, 1.5531, 1.5726 and 1.5818.
For the 10 year yield, interest rates predict interest rates and explains why wide ranges are offered to the 10 year as interest rate maturities for all nations are running at far wide distances. This gap will close as it always does and the 10 year supports and resistance points will also close as a result. For the next 2 or 3 days, the 10 year supports and resistance points hold.
Interest rate maturities at wide distances currently may explain why postings are seen to OIS rates. Far better interest rates exist to predict financial market instruments to entries, targets and market crashes. And we will know miles in advance rather than a one moment in time situation. Next week’s OIS rates will be much different than this week.