Thanksgiving, EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD

On this day to give thanks to god and country, year 18 begins during this time. An extremely long and hard fought battle to maintain existence. Year 2003 and 2004 markets were fast and moved far and wide quickly.


As a Political Science Professor and teaching full loads every semester, the goal then was stop the paychecks to disappear to the markets. I made the professional losers of today look like they were Sainted by the Pope and Knighted by the Queen by the amount of losses.


As a Professor, life was good as FX trading was not a prerequisite to a better life. But losses turned into a provocation, a confrontation then an ultimatum and passionate challenge.


I accepted the challenge anyway using pen, paper and calculator and I vowed then, to figure how and why the red and blue lights moved and after 17 years, I know how the lights move from Red to Blue.


Every bank research report was read as well as central bank research papers. Then I went behind every figure, calculation and factor to understand what these analysts were talking about. Currency analysts then as opposed to today were true pros and masters at their craft and much was gained by understanding vast FX knowledge. Yet FX knowledge is a life long pursuit as things change from time to time to require adjustments.


Trades for example radically changed, duration to targets radically changed. From $50 lots to trade today by spreads is another. Interest rates and interest rate markets radically changed. The only constant is money supplies connected to Futures prices. Speculation is this was the premise to design Futures markets and prices.


Today’s results speak for themselves as the progression to 15 + years of trades, education and knowledge was published on my blog and Fxstreet. I achieved far more than I bargained for 18 years ago.

All I wanted then was to re gain my losses and earn a few extra dollars by trading. I passed that objective. Yesterday’s Pen, paper and calculator is still the preferred method to trade. After 20 + years teaching college, I walked away. All the many offers to manage money, I turned down.


Eventually, I will walk away especially if challenges and further knowledge no longer exist to pursue other interests and passions. An opportune time as 50 years of markets is here and we will move to different markets, different market structures. Happens every 50 years.


I will assure to those with me for many many years, all will have enough money to sustain themselves easily well beyond their years and thensome.


The Week


EUR/USD Vs DXY


EUR/USD target at now 1.1022 from 1.1490 is not only close but EUR/USD is vastly oversold. The strategy moving forward is long only. DXY achieved 96.91 highs at the same time EUR/USD traded to 1.1187 lows.


DXY’s brick wall at 97.00 and 98.00 is here from 95.25. Current EUR/USD target now runs to 1.1445 and 1.1485 and bumps against the 5 year average at now 1.1496. The 1.1496 line is a rising line to assist to long EUR/USD strategies.


Where EUR/USD becomes interesting to long only strategies is EUR enters its seasonal downtrend in December and especially January. This reveals the 1.1496 line break above may take more time to allow a further rise.


USD/JPY


As EUR/USD traded to deeply oversold lows at 1.1187, USD/JPY decided to travel further overbought to 115.50 highs and 95 pips off this week’s entry. Another rare market blessing is upon us as deeply overbought USD/JPY targets a break at 112.85 then 111.62 and 111.19.


Massive and many averages exist at 109.00’s and the overall target at 109.00’s may also take time to allow the averages to drop. Short only strategies is the only trade.
The current driver to currency markets is EUR/USD Vs USD/JPY rather than traditional GBP/USD Vs USD/CAD.


GBP/USD


Bottoms and vital lines for GBP/USD are located at 1.3232 and 1.3102 at the 5 year average. GBP/USD sits deeply oversold. Big line breaks above are located at 1.3387 and 1.3467 to targets upper 1.3500’s. A break at 1.3595 is required to target 1.3600’s then 1.3800’s.

Why 1.3600’s mention is the target from 1.3102 is located at 1.3600’s.
USD/CAD trades between 1.2819 and 1.2547 as big breaks to higher and lower. Here’s USD/CAD big line targets and breaks: 1.2229, 1.2351, 1.2547, 1.2819, 1.2839 then the 5 year average at 1.3042. USD/CAD above 1.2351 trades in 200 ish pip ranges between vital levels.


AUD/USD


Big line breaks are located at 0.7285, 0.7309 then 0.7289 to targets 0.7400’s and higher.


NZD and RBNZ


NZD/JPY for RBNZ 50 pips, NZD/USD 41 pips and 31 pips for NZD/CHF. And not in 1 direction. Correct to leave RBNZ alone and don’t bother as nothing existed to trade.

If RBNZ raised or lowered 100 points or remained on hold, NZD would ‘ve traded the exact same pip movements because NZD prices contain big problems and doesn’t have anywhere to go.

Brian Twomey