FX Weekly: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, CHF/JPY, GBP/USD, CAD

EUR/USD begins the week 27 pips below the next vital level at 1.3787. Above, targets 1.1414 and 1.1422. EUR/USD story remains the same over week. Longer dated averages are oversold and driving EUR higher. The rising 5 year average is now located at 1.1514 and a target at 1.1064.


The only positive to EUR/USD shorts to longer term targets is EUR/USD trades below all monthly averages dating to 10 years yet all averages are rising. The second positive is January enters EUR/USD’s traditional seasonal downtrend. Dating to 1995, EUR/USD records 15 down months for January and 8 up months. For 2019 ended the month with a Doji candle.


EUR/USD’s downtrend to gain speed must break 1.1289 then 1.1211. The overall trade strategy is long drops as more pips will profit on the upside.


CHF/JPY


CHF/JPY is held higher by 123.98 and 120.65. Both are overbought as well as every average dating to 100.00’s from 2002. CHF/JPY is a USD pair as it correlates to USD/JPY at +90%.


USD/JPY and Weekly Trade


USD/JPY longs last week targeted 115.53 then short and USD/JPY for the 2nd time in 8 weeks, we were forced to add 1 lot. USD/JPY’s problem in the last 2 weeks is not longs as longs achieved targets but the problem is shorts. From 115.53, USD/JPY traded a free money bonus by 80 pips higher to 116.34.


For the 2nd time in 8 weeks of USD/JPY weekly trades, add 1 lot was forced at 116.34. Two options then existed. Either trade both lots to target or exit the 2nd lot at 15.53.


Addition of the 2nd lot at 116.34 to 115.53 + 81 pips. Longs from 115.08 to 115.53 then +45 pips. Total 2 trades +126 pips. Total for 8 trades + 1026 pips. USD/JPY lows for last week achieved 115.46


USD/JPY short 115.90 and 116.01 to target 114.85. Long 114.85 to target 115.43.


DXY Vs USD/JPY


USD/JPY begins the week fairly neutral from overbought over the past 2 weeks while DXY achieved lows last week at 95.62 and 95.56 on the previous week. DXY 95.25 remains the big break to target 92.00’s. Both USD/JPY and CHF/JPY then drop substantially to USD/JPY 110.00’s and CHF/JPY 118.00’s and 117.00’s. Both USD/JPY and CHF/JPY are miles overbought.


JPY Cross Pairs


All JPY cross pairs remain massive overbought to include GBP/JPY. Best trades this week: EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY. AUD/JPY faces headwinds at 83.56 and 84.46. NZD/JPY is least favored.


GBP/USD


GBP/USD levels are located at 1.3298, 1.3365, 1.3448, 1.3492 and 1.3629. Not only is the 5 year average at 1.3124 but many averages exist at 1.3100’s. GBP/USD averages are rising and the same story as EUR/USD.


GBP/AUD remains a problem currency and EUR/AUD is the better trades despite tiny ranges.


USD/CAD


Vital points are found at 1.2250, 1.2467, `1.2676, 1.2851 and 1.3027.


For interested, on my blog at btwomey.com is posted 19 currency trades and results from last week and +1200 pips. For 6 currency pairs were completed in 3 weekly trades each while 4 currencies completed in 2 trade per currency.


While I maintain profit is realized from at least 50% of all traded pips. 50% is factored from weekly trades in each of 17 weeks in 2019. Markets are dead today therefore 50% must be much higher today.


Most fascinating is the perfection and consistency to trades over many years but I worked extremely hard for this accuracy. We’re doing 1000 pips per week effortlessly each and every week.

Brian Twomey

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