The overall trade in Wheat expanded from 2000/2001 lows right at 110 million metric tons to 182 million metric tons in late 2019. Russia controlled 1% of the world wheat market in 2000 then surged to 22%, 23% by 2019. The higher result is due to Russia’s expanded port and rail capacity and ongoing investments in building and modernizing ports.
The United States by contrast owned 32% of world wheat markets in 2004/2005 then dropped to approximately 17% by 2019.
For tonnage context. For 1 metric ton equates to 36.7437 bushels as 1 bushel = .0272155 metric ton or 1000 kg, approximately 2204 lbs. using British tons or 2000 lbs for American tons. At 182 Metric Tons = 401,237.2 Pounds under the British tonnage system.
Russia, Europe and the United States peaked to Wheat prices in 2019 specifically for Russia’s Black Sea Milling, France Rouen Grade 1 and the United States Hard Red Winter.
If the 2022 global Grain trade to Wheat, Corn and Barley for context to Russia / United States Wheat only then just over 210 metric tons of Wheat comprise current markets, 180 metric tons of Corn and 25 metric tons of Barley. In comparison to the rest of the world, Ukraine and Russia represent a tiny dot not worthy of a conversation to affect the west to Wheat, Corn nor Barley.
Currently, Russia accounts for 16% of world exports in Wheat while Ukraine factors to 10%. Ukraine suspended port operations as a result of the Russia / Ukraine conflict while Russia instituted an export quota at 11 million tons from February to June 2022 and Wheat accounts for 8 million tons. Additionally, Russia passed an export tax under higher vessel insurance. Russia may meet the export demand provided exports are open from the Caspian Sea.
Affected are Russia’s largest export markets of Egypt, Turkey, Iran, Armenia, Belarus ,Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.
Ukraine and Russia account for 16% of Corn exports. The United States owns 33% of the Corn market followed by 22% to Argentina and 17% to Brazil Vs 27% to the rest of the world.
Ukraine and Russia account for 30% of Barley export markets while Australia dominates Barley markets at 26%, European Union 22% and 5% to Canada Vs 17% to the rest of the world. Both Canada and Australia experienced higher production and is expected to enhance or stabilize Barley market prices.
The Ukraine / Russia war disrupted Grain markets as reduced supplies are marked by higher export, Cash and Futures prices as importers search for new suppliers. For Wheat, The United States and Europe shot higher to $162 for the US and $150 per ton for Europe while Australia rose to $47 due to increased supplies and Canada $60 per ton. Argentina rose to $116 per ton.
Australia is expected to export 27 million tons and an all time high. So rich is Wheat supplies, Australia will look to open markets in Africa nd the middle east.
Egypt is diversifying to Romania for Wheat while Turkey imposed duty free imports for all 2022. “Turkey also imports a significant amount of wheat grain to re-export wheat flour and products such as pasta. Turkey is the top exporter of wheat flour to the world, with more than 30 percent exported to Iraq, followed by Yemen and Syria as major destinations.
China is currently the world’s largest Corn importer at 29 million tones followed by Mexico at 9 million tons. The United States Corn price reached 320 per ton and at record highs and overall contains large supplies. Ukraine Corn affects markets in the middle east and Africa.
While markets were disrupted by the Russia / Ukraine war, prices for food and grains skyrocketed as a result of supply problems. Food shortage however is non existent.
Brian Twomey
BRIAN TWOMEY ON TRADING 