EUR/USD for the Fed’s raise traveled 121 pips. Looks great on paper but its wrong. The currency price exist in a perpetual day trade and never to leave. EUR/USD for the Fed’s day trade release actually traded to 1.0595 or 53 pips. Yesterday’s target as written 1.0598. Slightly more than 53 pips.
The target at 1.0598 was guaranteed. We’ll take guaranteed. Beside the Fed, morning day trades and 24 hour trades were running. Walking into the Fed’s release, at leas 29 pips were banked. After the Fed, 60ish pips were added. Now we have the reversal for an extra 20 and 30 pips just for laughs.
EUR/USD traded 121 pips overall but banked by the smartest trade manner was 101 pips.
But EUR/USD traveled to 1.0630 and a miss of 32 pips. Wrong. The extra 32 pips traded to a location not to touch nor factor for correct trading. Without the 50 point raise or Powell’s words, EUR/USD would’ve never traded to 30.
Instead, initial targets at 1.0590’s were perfect. EUR/USD 1.0630’s comes into trade view for reversals only. What was missed? Nothing.
The target at 1.0598 was known not yesterday on Fed Day but Tuesday afternoon around 4:00.
Just for laughs, here’s the weekly trade: Long 1.0486 and 1.0480 to target 1.0644. Lows achieved 1.0491 and highs at 1.0630 or 139 pips. Weekly trades are now working on reversals and running more profits.
So why not take the day trade to 1.0644 to match the weekly. Day trades and weekly trades are 2 completely different animals. Each contain specific entries and targets separate from each other. Levels and price paths to targets are light years apart from each other.
Now that the Fed is over, normal day trades resume to normality.
USD/JPY before the Fed Release sat at 128.00’s and traveled to 130.00’s. USD/CAD was located at 1.2700’s and traded to 1.2800’s. USD/JPY was the winning trade while USD/CAD did nothing. USD/CAD can[]t move until USD/JPY makes a larger move.
EUR/USD 1.0660 remains the big break against the next hurdle at 1.0904. Big tops today are located at 1.0629, 1.0656 and 1.0661.
EUR/USD requires a bigger move otherwise averages for next week will drop and EUR/USD will trade to 1.0550’s and lower easily.
M2 Money Supply
Powell’s next big break is located at 20427.95. Powell has a long way to go to reduce the balance sheet. The first 30 billion reduction will take us to 21453 then 21423.
Brian Twomey
BRIAN TWOMEY ON TRADING 