EUR/USD big break is now located 1.0816, NZD/USD at 0.6575 and NZD/CHF 0.6292. EUR/USD trades currently within 72 pips to its break, NZD/USD 65 and NZD/CHF 43 pips. Required for non USD pairs is any of the 3 pairs to break higher. If EUR/USD trades first then NZD/CHF and NZD/USD automatically follow. If NZD/USD and/or NZD/CHF travels first then EUR/USD will automatically follow.

EUR/USD and NZD/USD are Non USD leaders as top and bottom currencies by exchange rate numbers and falls under the category of market structure. Its impossible for EUR/USD to trade below NZD/USD or NZD/CHF and impossible for NZD/USD and NZD/CHF to trade above EUR/USD. By the brilliance of central bank design.

The problem to the vital breaks at 1.0816 and 0.6575 NZD/USD is rising lines and rising prices. Correct is falling averages and rising prices. This situation ensures EUR/USD and NZD/USD will trade above and continue higher.

For EUR/USD and NZD/USD to break higher requires a market development such as an off snyc economic announcement to push EUR and NZD above the averages. Unless te averages stop rising and drop or remain stable.

If EUR/USD or NZD fails to break vital points then both will trade a deep dive in a long red candle. This means we remain bound to a long only strategy to again challenge whatever averages materialize as 1.0800’s EUR/USD and 0.6500’s for NZD/USD.

On a EUR/USD or NZD/USD break higher then AUD/USD’s rising line at current 0.7152 will break higher, sustain and AUD/USD travels easily to high 0.7200’s and low 0.7300’s.
If EUR/USD and /or NZD/USD breaks higher then oddball currency GBP/USD must cross above vital 1.2789.

Currently GBP/USD as the traditional laggard currency will break higher so uniformity exists to EUR/USD, NZD/USD and AUD/USD.

Possibly why rising lines exist to EUR, NZD and AUD is to allow laggard GBP/USD to trade higher and catch up to its counterparts. Uniformity is vital to markets and prices. But this situation is not unusual and seen many times before especially as it applies to GBP/USD.

GBP/USD suffers the effects to the 1960’s re number to the exchange rate as it now trades above EUR/USD. The 1960’s was only 30 years since the trade wars of the 1930’s so the French Franc, GBP/EUR or GBP/DEM then and USD positions had to factor to the correct exchange rate number.

Best part to the 1930’s trade wars was GBP vs French Franc as the French employed every effort to destroy GBP and created bitter enemies over many, many decades. See Gold Wars for a play by play to a fascinating story.

Overall, EUR/USD and NZD hold a do or die position. Much higher or much lower and it must be either/or as principles of Moving averages.

Brian Twomey

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