EUR/USD Day Trade, Part 2

Yesterday morning, EUR/USD traded to lows at 1.0435 however in the 3 pm afternoon hour. A non normal and strange event inside a non normal price week. For the most vital 7 hour trade time, EUR/USD bottomed at 1.0473 in the 9 am Hour. The overall bottom was 1.0441. The 10 am hour, EUR/USD bottomed at 1.0466 and actual bottom at 1.0464. Not bad.

The 3 pm hour, EUR/USD actual bottom was 1.0412 and traded to 1.0435.
Here’s the overall context to EUR/USD’s larger range. Yesterday morning 1.0489 to 1.0382. The 10 am hour: 1.0491 to 1.0385. Today 1.0485 to 1.0377.

Once EUR/USD broke 1.0489 and 1.0491, EUR/USD became deeply oversold. EUR/USD is trading ever so slowly to lower levels and against massive oversold averages. EUR/USD is fighting against the oversold tide.

Yesterday morning 1.0489 to 1.0382. EUR/USD traded 1.0534 to 1.0473 or 61 pips in 7 hours. EUR/USD’s full range potential was 105 pips.

The 10 am hour, 1.0491 to 1.0385. EUR/USD traded 1.0491 to 1.0466 or 25 pips. After 9 am, day trades are over as 24 hour trades began trading yesterday.

Note 108 pips from 1.0485 to 1.0377. The same range for the exact same period in 2012 was 113 pips, 2013 = 28 pips, 2014 = 23 pips, 2015 = 69 pips, 2016 = 38 pips,

2017 = 103 pips. 2018 = 01 pips. 2019 = 22 pips, 2020 = 51 pips, 2021 = 37 pips.

Today’s 7 and 24 hour EUR/USD day trade at roughly 50 and 100 ish pips is found within the context of 1.0485 to 1.0377. A much easier trading life. The ECB engineered day trades within the context of larger ranges.

Previous EUR/USD day trades were aligned at 75 and 80 Vs 150 and 160 ish pips and far outside ranges. Trading life was far more difficult to day trades.

In the overall context of 50 pips, 75, 100 and 150, daily ranges for EUR/USD on June 29 as follows.

June 29, 2012 = 258 pips, 2013 = 112 pips, 2014 = 60 pips, 2015 = 324 pips,

2016 = 81 pips,

2017 = 73 pips, 2018 = 132 pips, 2019 = 90 pips, 2020 = 71, 2021 = 52 pips.

Most interesting to weekly trades overall is nothing changed to entries and targets. The same old story and factors prevail in 2012 as is today in 2022.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD Price Path

EUR/USD opened the week at 1.0556, dropped to 1.0547 then traded highs to 1.0614. Highs at 1.0614 were located from 1.0599 to 1.0654. What is 1.0614? A phantom number and without EUR/USD ability to at least touch or trade closer to the next average.

EUR/USD price path for the week traded 1.0547 to 1.0614. EUR/USD traded from neutral to neutral and at 1.0556 also traded a neutral price. Despite 67 pips from 1.0547 to 1.0614, its impossible and not smart to trade a neutral price nor to trade neutral to neutral. And for 60 pips? Neutral refers to price ability to trade up or down. its a coin toss which direction the price may trade.

EUR/USD then traded from 1.0614 to 1.0485 lows. Now our EUR/USD traded from neutral highs to neutral lows. What’s neutral? Depends how its viewed. At week’s beginning, 1.0481 classifies as neutral. Today 1.0494

The EUR/USD reference pertains to the weekly price path and trade and excludes day trades. Correct for EUR/USD this week and a correct price path is to drop from 1.0556 neutrality to provide an entry for longs. This is fairly common for all financial instruments as a market price spends most of its trade life in neutrality.

Take EUR/USD’s day trade for example. From 14 exchange rate points only 4 exchange rates are valid for entries to longs and shorts. The remainder exchange rates are untouchable for entries as all are classified as neutral.

The weekly price path is no different. While many more than 14 exchange rates trade, only 4 exchange rates are valid for entries. Note 4 as the commonality. A weekly trade is a day trade X 2. Best bet to trade and view overall price paths is to factor trades in 50 pips increments. This concept will maintain profitability and free traders from the savages.

Only today is a long completely justified as written in the weekly from 1.0498. Actual is 1.0512 and 1.0498. If EUR/USD traded to target at 1.0653 instead of 1.0614 then shorts would become valid. But the target price to achieve inside a neutral price path is impossible.

More important is 67 pips and neutral trading leaves EUR/USD in severe range compression mode. Note the points of neutrality 1.0481 and 1.0494 or a difference of 13 pips after 3 full trade days. The highlight to compression is 13 pip changes to averages after 3 trade days. Yet how far can an average change under a neutral price path. Not much.

The same range compression is seen from day trades. Today’s vital points are located from 1.0441, 1.0554, 1.0519, 1.0539, 1.0546.

if EUR/USD traded to target at 1.0653 then we have a price path operating in reverse. This is a rare day and not normal to price paths.

Overall, EUR/USD from 1.0614 to today’s 1.0494 or 120 pips traded in neutrality. Lows achieved 1.0486 and longs from 1.0498 to highs traded so far to 1.0529 or 30 pips.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD Day Trade, Day 2

In 24 hours of past trading, EUR/USD remained inside a range from 1.0546 to 1.0614 or 68 pips. EUR/USD still remains trapped in the interior of yesterday’s levels. EUR/USD hit most vital levels at 1.0585 at 3 times. The 1.0580’s hit levels 7 times.

At 1.0612 traded to 1.0614 then dropped 44 pips 9 hours later. Multiple shorts on the way up to 1.0612 was the only trade due to the vicinity of 1.0612 and EUR/USD lifted from mid range.

EUR/USD today as normal contains an equal chance to rise or fall. News announcements are meaningless. Central bank papers informed in 2016 the only movements are designed to trade around news announcements. Explains why announcements as expected or off sync remain within the range.

The papers are available to read at the central bank sites. The BOE is the best because its an explicit market oriented approach and objectives are outlined in detail. One caveat, central banks are again re designing websites. This is always bad news as central banks hide most vital information.

The RBNZ for example in the 90 day chart pack contained the best GDP information for 5 nations and dated to the 1990’s. The information appears missing from the site and the RBNZ fails to respond. If interested to read, write the BOE as they will send the papers and they respond quickly.

EUR/USD

Vital levels today: 1.0541, 1.0553, 1.0563, 1.0567, 1.0673, 1.0580 === 1.0601, 1.0607, 1.0614, 1.0621, 1.0627, 1.0634, 1.0641, 1.0648.

Brian Twomey

The EUR/USD Day Trade

Today is Monday and day trades are off balance to day trade levels. Day trades today and everyday remain at an equal chance to rise higher or trade lower. Levels are off due to the tight relationship to EUR Vs USD and non USD currencies to USD.

This is seen from day trades and tight relationship of interest rates but also seen and shown in the FX weekly on a larger scale over time between EUR/USD and DXY.

Markets desperately require a breakout to trade wider ranges.

The new definition of markets is Mathematical certitude created by men and instituted by central banks. In this context they gave us levels, ranges and targets to trade by many styles short and long term. Took all these many years to offer and understand trades as target to target. Everything and anything in between doesn’t apply.

Its Mathematical certitude at work offered by central banks but eliminates all the non necessaries involved. If ever my information was published, all would have a greater understanding to my words but also to the simplicity to what was created and traded.

Priced In is a good example to not necessary. Here’s EUR/USD day trade.

1.0504, 1.0517, 1.0528, 1.0530, 1.0531, 1.0544, 1.0551, 1.0564, 1.0571, 1.0578, 1.0585, 1.0598, 1.0605, 1.0612.

Economic Announcements and Priced In

Within the context of day trades levels, every economic announcement is found within the day trade levels. This happens every trade day. And it doesn’t matter if the economic announcement is within range or far off base. This concept serves for every financial instrument on the planet.

Only on extremely rare days does prices leave daily levels. When this rare event happens, truly free money trades exist. Its the “I won the lottery” event. Highlighted specifically are normally traded markets as central banks created their systems for normal trades but also for professionals that require daily currency trades. A Proctor and Gamble executive once noted on CNBC the company trades 100’s of currencies per day.

An economic announcement then trades from top to bottom, bottom to top or somewhere in the middle. Highlighted again are the 7 hours allotted time for day trades as the vast majority of financial instruments see their best moves.
For the economic announcement hardly matters to the 7 hour trade and a total non event for 24 hour and weekly trades.

USD Vs Non USD

Note 1.0528 and 1.0530. The non USD to USD relationship signifies a deep marriage. This concept applies to all currencies. if one currency is affected by any market event then all currencies are affected due to the deep deep marriage to overall prices shared by all currencies.

But it comes back to this Mathematical certitude deal and the ranges allotted to trade. Its not the assault to exchange rates but to interest rates as central banks destroyed the concept to free float interest rates as the greatest and historic staple to markets and movements.

Target to target

For today only, target to target for longs and shorts are located at 1.0504 and 1.0612. Today is a horrible day for day trades. Added to horrible is the 24 hour trade target at 1.0585 and note 1.0585 was factored for today on Saturday.

Should inform EUR/USD today isn’t traveling anywhere.

Normal Day trades

If today was normal then longs and shorts are located at 1.0531 and 1.0605. If a bonus day happens and EUR/USD traded to 1.0612 or 1.0504 then extra pips are added to trades.

Target to target would be located from 1.0531 to 1.0605 or 1.0605 to 1.0531.

Note the bottom points of supports at 1.0528, 1.0530 and 1.0531. Not only supports but at neutral locations. Means EUR/USD has an equal chance to travel higher or lower but only for today’s off balance day.

At 1.0585 contains neutrality but again only for today. On normal days, we can refer to overbought or oversold. Today, oversold and overbought doesn’t apply.

I tried to apply Fibonacci numbers to 7 hour day trades and I can’t find where it applies or works to enter or exit trades. Markets were created for levels, ranges and targets for simple math but not for Fibonacci numbers. And possibly the reason why it doesn’t work. The other assumption is Fibonacci numbers are to large to apply to shorter ranges.

The 24 Hour trades were created from the 7 hour trade and its under assumption Fibonacci numbers also doesn’t apply as a useful trade tool.

Brian Twomey

GBP/AUD V EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD V GBP/NZD

The question of Co movements from this week’s FX Weekly is written in Mathematical and Interest Rate Stone and its impossible to leave us. Its also impossible to trade wrong, or with losses. Profits are guaranteed as will be seen.

I call this the next generation of trades specifically to the perfection from multiple longs and shorts, specifically 2 longs and 2 shorts per currency, per stock, per stock index, per any financial instrument.

See Linked In posts for 32 points for Corn and Natural Gas for longs and shorts and ask this question. What do I know about Corn or Nat Gas. Nothing but its not required to know anything about the financial instrument. Required is to know the strategy and formula.

Why stop with the same currencies? Take Any 2, 3 or 10 financial instruments to work. How about use SPX, EUR/USD and CAD/CHF. Or CAD/CHF, VIX and the stock market in any nation. How about Corn, EUR/GBP and Europe stock market.

Pick 100 financial instruments and profits exists for 100 financial instruments. And big profits. No screen watching, no stops required.

Not required is the mounds of market talk blah blah we are so inundated with today. Central bank baloney, news releases, Fed speakers, recession or no recession. All of this as will be seen is factored inside the price.

Today is Sunday and tomorrow is Monday. Our trades may or may not trade to full term. But that doesn’t matter either as profits are guaranteed. In 95% instances, trades will trade to full term.

GBP/AUD 

Long above 1.7733 to target 1.7853. Levels: 1.7753, 1.7773, 1.7793, 1.7813, 1.7833, 1.7843.

Short 1.7853 to target 1.7814.

Short below 1.7733 to target 1.7612. Levels: 1.7713, 1.7693, 1.7673, 1.7653, 1.7633, 1.7613.

Long 1.7612 to target 1.7652.

EUR/AUD 

Long above 1.5222 to target 1.5305. Levels: 1.5250, 1.5278, 1.5292.

Short 1.5305 to target 1.5278.

Short below 1.5222 to target 1.5138. Levels: 1.5194, 1.5166, 1.5152. 

Long 1.5138 to target 1.5166.

EUR/NZD

Long above 1.6721 to target 1.6790. Levels: 1.6744, 1.6767, 1.6778.

Short 1.6790 to target 1.6767.

Short below 1.6721 to target 1.6652. Levels: 1.6698, 1.6675, 1.66 4

Long 1.6652 to target 1.6675.

GBP/NZD

Long above 1.9466 to target 1.9562.

Short 1.9562 to target 1.9532

Short below 1.9466 to target 1.9371.

Long 1.9371 to target 1.9402.

Brian Twomey

Co Variance Formula and GBP/AUD Vs EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD V GBP/NZD

The question to Co movements. All are the exact same financial instruments and must trade by co variation. By no other choice. I can’t erase the formula so next post I will post the trades. If applying then use Population Co Variance.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: EUR, GBP, DXY, JPY, Gold, SPX

Currency markets operated normally last week and expected to trade normal and the exact same to ranges this week. Currency prices are trading in wide ranges without significant breaks to vital averages seen in order to trend and provide direction.

Divergence however exists to an overbought EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD undecided as it opens directly against big break 1.9434. EUR/NZD is the better currency as it contains range ability while GBP/NZD doesn’t have a clue for the week as ranges deeply compressed. EUR/NZD’s move lower is a correction unless 1.6552 breaks.

Further problems exists between GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD. GBP/AUD trades below its vital average at 1.7759 while EUR/AUD trades above 1.5125. Despite the bi weekly divergence, GBP/AUD range traded 326 pips last week to EUR/AUD at 296.

Divergence between GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD may exist within 2 specific averages but is non existent to co movements. Divergence may appear between GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD yet is non existent to co movements as GBP/NZD traded 381 pips last week to EUR/NZD 351.

DXY Vs EUR/USD

Weekly to DXY Vs EUR/USD since last November is both trade 200 pip ranges. EUR/USD last week traded from 1.0400 to 1.0600 Vs DXY 103.00 to 104. 2 Weeks ago EUR/USD traded 1.03 to 1.05 Vs DXY 103.00 to 105.00.

3 weeks ago EUR/USD 1.05 to 1.07 Vs DXY 101.00 to 104.00. 4 weeks ago EUR/USD traded 1.06 to 1.0700’s Vs DXY 101.00 to 102.00. 5 weeks ago EUR/USD traded 1.05 to 1.0700 Vs DXY 101.00 to 103.00.

On June 15 when the Fed raised 75 points, EUR/USD traded 94 pips Vs DXY 91. EUR/USD trades above DXY yet move DXY’s decimal point and EUR/USD supports are found. The EUR/USD Vs DXY relationship drives not only currencies but all markets.

GOLD Vs SPX Vs DXY and EUR/USD 200 ips ranges.

Weekly Gold ranges trades 1/4 to 1/3 of EUR/USD and DXY. Gold’s last 8 weekly ranges stacks up as 32, 75, 53, 49, 32, 62, 89 and 61. SPX runs consistent to EUR/USD and DXY as last weeks: 185, 200, 276, 100, 280, 276 and 209. Best SPX longs and shorts are found above the 200 pip range and long when the range trades severely below 200.

The Week

EUR/USD

Last week’s target at 1.0677 traded to 1.0605 from 1.0466 lows. EUR/USD this week targets 1.0653 from 1.0498 lows.

DXY

Last week 106.00’s overbought to lows at 102.00’s. DXY traded 110 pips last week from 104.00 to 103.00’s. This week, DXY becomes overbought at 105.00’s and targets 103.59 for about 141 pip range.

USD/JPY

Last week shorts from 136.00’s targets 133.01, Lows traded to 134.22 or 178 ish pips. This week’s shorts from 136.00’s targets 133.64.

GBP/USD

As written Thursday, longs target this week lower to middle 1.2400’s. Actual target 1.2442.

SPX

Last week targets 3889. SPX closed at 3911. In 2 of the past 3 weeks, SPX traded perfectly to targets. This week’s highs are located at 3960 Vs lows at 3671.

XAU/USD and XAU/EUR

Last week, XAU/USD targets highs at 1896.18 while XAU/EUR targets 1804.97. Both bottom at XAU/EUR 1717.58 and XAU/USD at 1787.88. XAU/USD ranged traded from 1816 to 1850 while XAU/EUR traded 1724 to 1758.

XAU/USD targets highs this week at 1857 and lows at 1808 for another dull trade week while XAU/EUR targets 1766 vs lows again at 1717.

10 Year Yield

Last week targets 3.59 then short to target 3.06.The 10 year traded to 3.31 and lows at 3.01. This week targets 3.38 Vs lows at 2.94.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD Vs USD/JPY and GBP/JPY

Over many weeks, the main currencies on the move and best profits were USD/JPY, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY. Severely underperforming currencies were EUR/USD and AUD/USD as middle currency. NZD/USD is built for perfection everyday of its trading life and never changes.

Here’s a dead and dying EUR/USD and no changes over many months. EUR/USD lacks ability to move. Yet it trades normally according to its numbers.

Most vital 1.0507 and 1.0509 answers what is the relationship between EUR/USD and USD/EUR. The relationship is tight, married and super glued together. Explains EUR/USD trading in ranges, without a breakout and despite oversold. no trend ability. The lethargic EUR/USD here.

Topside EUR/USD for today: 1.0542, 1.0549, 1.0555, 1.0562, 1.0575, 1.0582, 1.0589. We’ve not seen a dead EUR/USD to this degree in many years.

USD/JPY

Topside USD/JPY today: 134.90, 134.99, 135.07, 135.16, 135.33, 135.41, 135.50. USD/JPY’s position is far better than EUR/USD and a better condition to profit from many more pips.

Bottom USD/JPY 134.14, 134.31, 134.44, 134.48. To the next degree which is completely unnecessary for further numbers: 134.56, 134.65, 134.73, 134.77. USD/JPY traded to lows today at 134.34 and traded 45 pips to 134.79. Once 134.79 traded, USD/JPY became untouchable for an entry.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY is currently designed to move far and wide to profit from many pips.
Bottoms: 164.54 achieves by 164.64, 164.74, 164.84 , 164.95, 165.16, 165.26, GBP/JPY traded to lows today at 164.81 and not only a horrible position but no good entry existed.

GBP/JPY upside today 165.47, 165.57, 165.67, 165.78, 165.99, 166.09, 166.20. From 164.81 lows, GBP/JPY traded to 165.63 and another terrible number and location to coincide to no good entry.

Trade profit 2 1/2 hours into the day trade resulted in 82 pips and 5 hours remain. The better and easier trade was the 24 hour trade and 100 ish pips profit banked.

Fibonacci numbers lack representation to 7 hour trades.

Brian Twomey

FX Next Week: EUR, GBP, AUD, JPY, Gold, SPX, WTI

GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD moved acceptably yesterday however not enough to change the 2400 spreads. The normal spread at 2600 ish informs we’re pretty much locked in a 200 pip range.

EUR/AUD today, short 1.5324 to target 1.5280 however EUR/AUD is overbought and next target is located at 1.5225. Big break for lower is located at 1.5107.
GBP/AUD ‘s big break is located 1.7740 and 5 pips higher from yesterday. Target today 1.7849 and about another 50 pips to go for the day. Friday should close around 1.7844.

AUD/USD is deeply oversold and targets today 0.6927 and 0.6994. By Friday, AUD/USD should trade at 0.7004 and close within the 0.7004 vicinity. Long for next week remains the overall strategy and weekly target is found at 0.7089 and low 0.7100’s.

USD/JPY as written Sunday, targets for the week 133.01 from 136.00’s. Lows achieved so far 135.11 and running about 150 pips profit. Bottoms and quick longs for today is located at 135.41 and 135.17. Target at 133.01 must cross below 134.89.

EUR/USD achieved yesterday as written 1.0559 then 1.0601. GBP/USD achieved 1.2300’s. Recall Sunday, EUR/USD weekly target at 1.0667. For the week, breaks are located at 1.0605, 1.0633, 1.0648 then 1.0661.

Up targets today are 1.0616 then 1.0639.

EUR/USD for the week traded lows at 1.0470 against a known weekly target at 1.0667 and highs at 1.0605. Close Friday should trade at 1.0548 and 1.0519. Not much progress from the weekly open at 1.0492.

GBP/JPY bottom yesterday at 164.46 traded to 164.85 lows from 166.00’s. GBP/JPY ranges daily now 200 to 300 pips. GBP/JPY must trade up to 165.49 easily for a quick 70 ish pips. Big break lower is located at 161.97. Short again next week from 166.50 and targets easily 163.00’s.

SPX weekly targets as written Sunday are located at 3889. Highs so far achieved 3801. SPX for the week traded 65 and 83 point days and fairly average for SPX. Today’s highs target 3822.

WTI for the past month at least traded daily and weekly trades perfectly. Yesterday lows at 101 was not only massively oversold but also off sync. Lows today are located at 99.73. Then long. Next week targets 113.00’s.

Gold achieved weekly highs at 1850 and weekly target at 1898. Then short.
GBP/USD targets again 1.2300’s, first at 1.2304, 1.2317 then 1.2352. Long for next week to target low 1.2400’s to middle 1.2400’s easily.

EUR/NZD is the last pair for today as EUR/NZD trades deeply overbought. Target is 1.6559 and big break at 1.6530. Good target is 1.6652.

Brian Twomey

70% Losers, GBP/AUD V EUR/AUD, EUR, JPY

Decade after decade, the figure remains today as 70% of traders lose. Within every financial instrument, the market price screams loudly, here please take the profits. And much is to gain from shortest term traders to day trades, weekly and long term. Are 70% losers led by crooks with promises of big profits and expertise, are trading systems running 24 hours failures, are old trade methods failures, are traders ready to become traders.

Please see my old friend John Hill at Futures Truth magazine and all will note John has been at the forefront of testing trading systems or algo systems as they are called today, since the early 1980’s. The amount of failure systems in 40 years is astounding.

Very few systems make it and are recommended for trade and sale. Today, the amount of hedge funds using trading systems is more astounding and explains 50% winners to losers.

Crooks in markets with promises of big profits always existed in markets and won’t ever change in the future. John Hill has 40 years of stories and 40 years of court battles to stop the dishonest.

The Journal of Technical Analysis first introduced charts and chart pattens with Ichimoku in 1997, John McGinley’s Dynamic 1998, Robert Prector’s Fibonacci numbers in the 1970’s and 1980’s and candlesticks in the 1980’s. Explains today’s use of Fibonacci numbers and growing use of charts and chart patterns.

Today’s dishonest approach to markets is to socialize traders under one roof. Literally millions of traders today are locked down in trading rooms listening to market professionals that don’t exist and attracted by a small monthly fee. The rate of return and turnover must be astounding. The individual trader hardly exists anymore. Every trader is a member to something.

For the most part, the written word is becoming a waste of time as nobody exists to read due to trade rooms. My story is slightly different as I delivered profits for the past 10 + years and proven to consistent profits and methods. I don’t view trades and markets as the trading crowds.

The Week

GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD began the week at 2700 pip spreads. Those spreads compressed to 2500. Reveals not much action to GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD yet however the big move is on the way.

EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD

The week began as 2400 pip spreads and remains today at 2400. EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD are the next set of currencies behind GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD to provide insight to movements and ranges. Fairly normal for GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD is 2600 to 2700 pip spreads and informs the bigger move is ahead. Most vital is ranges for EUR/CHF, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY will compress and normalize.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY achieved 136.00’s and overbought as written Sunday. Lows traded to 136.00 from 136.70. The big break and target is today and weekly 134.55.
On the ranked favored list as best trades today are USD/JPY, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY.
Gold achieved highs at 1848 and weekly target at 1898.

SPX500

Higher targets are located at 3723.50 and 3889.28. Watch 3739.30 for higher SPX. For SPX opens today at 3764. Today’s high target is located at 3796.
EUR/USD targets today are located at 1.0559 and 1.0601. GBP/USD targets back to 1.2300’s

Watch GBP/AUD shorts at 1.7735 while EUR/AUD at 1.5250’s trades neutral. Divergence between GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD as reported Sunday remains today.

Oversold AUD/USD targets higher at 0.6993 and 0.7007. If seen today, AUD/USD won’t trade highs until after 10 am.

GBP/JPY bottoms are located 166.13, 165.26 and 164.46.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: EUR,GOLD, DXY, JPY, GBP, SPX, WTI

EUR/USD broke below its 5 year average at 1.1500’s last November and traded to its 1.0800 target. For the past 3 months, EUR/USD ranged 700 pips from 1.1000 to lows 1.0300’s and 400 pips for the past 2 months. Since the 1.0800 target, EUR/USD failed to break significant averages to trend higher but instead is trading inside a 400 pips range without direction or purpose.

The EUR/USD example describes AUD/USD from the break lower at its 5 year average at 0.7200’s to trade 400 pips from 0.6800’s to 0.7200’s, NZD/USD from the break at 0.6800’s to trade a 300 pips range from 0.6200’s to 0.6500’s and GBP/USD’s 1.3100 break at the 5 year average to trade a 700 pip range from 1.1900’s to 1.2600’s.

GBP/JPY fell 800 pips from 168.00’s but failed to break a significant average. USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs fall into the same category to trade wide ranges without significant breaks to major averages.

Wide range currencies EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD are caught in the crossfire and trade as anchor pairs dictate. All trade 700 pip ranges in the past 2 months.

The drivers to our currency pairs are the front curve currencies within the universe. GBP/CHF, GBP/USD and GBP/JPY are not only trading extraordinarily wide wide daily ranges but all prevent wide range currencies to move significantly and to break significant averages.

EUR/CHF, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY are also trading wide daily ranges to prevent EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD from significant movements. AUD/CHF, AUD/USD and AUD/JPY matches the same concepts as EUR by NZD as NZD/CHF, NZD/USD and NZD/JPY.

Overall, Its extraordinary for GBP/USD and EUR/USD for example to trade 3 and 400 pips days. In the old days of pre 2016, currencies regularly traded 3 and 500 pip days. Today’s ranges doubled from 150 and 200 pip weeks over the past 3 years to 400, 500 and 600 pips.

Wider ranges doesn’t indicate abnormal prices and movements as market prices to currencies, stocks and commodities are trading exactly normal. An extremely rare day exists for market prices to trade non normal. The concept almost doesn’t exist.

The only difference today is averages are spread farther apart to allow wider range movements. Targets allow greater profits than normal but entries remain the exact same.

Our specialty over past years was weekly trades and remain just as expert today however day trade profits expanded enormously under wider range movements. Day trade profits today far surpasses weekly trade profits factored against 20 weekly trades to 19 day trades.

Best trades are located in the first 3 currencies of the universe for example as GBP/CHF, GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. Leave middle currencies alone as GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD, AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD.

The Week

EUR/USD
The vital averages driving EUR/USD are 1.0729, 1.1238, 1.1375, 1.1528, 1.1609, 1.1831 and 1.2357. All averages are richter scale oversold. EUR/USD is deeply oversold from the 100 day average to 4000 day.

The only strategy is long and end week target is 1.0677. Then a resolutions is required for 1.0729 to the next trade leg. Longer range targets are located at 1.0896, 1.1084, 1.1187 and 1.1299.

DXY

As written last week, DXY was overbought at 105.00’s and 103.00;s held as supports. DXY traded last week from 105.00’s to 103.00’s. This week, 106.00’s become deeply overbought and targets 102.00’s at the low end.

GBP/JPY

As written last week, GBP/JPY targets 163.00’s on a break at 164.75. Lows achieved 160.00’s. This week targets 162.00’s and GBP/PY’s big break to target lower prices is located at 161.37. Trade strategy is short.

USD/JPY

As written last week, USD/JPY targets 132.11. USD/JPY lows traded to 131.48 from 135.00’s. This week shorts are located around 136.00’s to target easily 133.01 then 130.00’s.

USD/TRY

As written last week, USD/TRY targets 16.8115 and traded to lows at 17.1356 from 17.3906.

USD/DKK

As written last week, from 7.0714 targets shorts to 7.0045. Lows achieved 7.0145 for +700 ish pips.

USD/BRL

As written last week, USD/BRL targets 5.04 from 4.98. Easy trade as not only was target achieved but USD/BRL traded to 5.12 highs.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD broke above the 5 year average at 1.2971 to trade 1.3076 highs or 100 pips. USD/CAD remains deeply overbought and classified as problem status due to lack of range and contention to CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF. Next stop above is located at 1.3180. Driving averages below are located at 1.2969, 1.2863, 1.2832, 1.2765 and 1.2601.

Overall, far better currency pairs exist to trade than USD/CAD. EUR/GBP day trades will profit far more than a weekly USD/CAD trade.

GBP/NZD Vs EUR/NZD

From 2 best wide range currencies among G28, GBP/NZD 1.9335 and EUR/NZD 1.6613 spreads 2700 pips currently from 3600’s. This metric alone informs movements to GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD are fairly dead but it also signifies wider ranges shifted to front currencies GBP/CHF, GBP/USD and GBP/JPY.

The message from GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD is patience as spreads will widen and better trades will materialize when ranges to front currencies compress.

GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD

Neither pair is on the top ranked trade list of 20 weekly currencies. GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD are best served as 24 hour day trades because the day trades are more exact and perfect than weekly trades and because profits are much higher.

EUR/AUD’s big break for lower is located at 1.5072 and EUR/AUD trades above. GBP/AUD ‘s big break average for higher is located at 1.7717 and GBP/AUD trades below. GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD lack uniformity and divergence exists between both.

The better trade is EUR/AUD if it must be traded.

GBP/CHF Vs GBP/USD and EUR/CHF Vs EUR/USD

GBP/CHF 1.1838 Vs GBP/USD 1.2217 and EUR/CHF 1.0188 Vs EUR/USD 1.0492. GBP/CHF and EUR/CHF begin the week richter scale oversold and matches NZD/CHF and AUD/CHF. GBP/USD and EUR/USD rises as GBP/CHF and EUR/CHF trade higher.

XAU/USD and XAU/EUR

As written last week, XAU/USD targets 1888.53 and 1889.20, while XAU/EUR targets higher at 1751.09 and 1798.17. Targets achieved at XAU/USD Highs 1881, XAU/EUR Highs 1791.

XAU/USD for the week targets highs at 1896.18 while XAU/EUR targets 1804.97. Both bottom at XAU/EUR 1717.58 and XAU/USD at 1787.88.

WTI Vs Brent

WTI from the 107 open is oversold and targets higher at 121.57 and 127.53 while Brent targets 123.60 and 128.66.

SPX500

Higher targets are located at 3723.50 and 3889.28. Watch 3739.30 for higher SPX.

10 Year Yield
Next target higher for the week is located at 3.59 then short to target 3.06.

Interest Rates

From this day forward, the Fed’s interest rate curve is overbought. Higher rates means far more overbought

Brian Twomey

FED, Central Banks and Market Movements

The Fed’s statements and interest rate releases occur at 2 PM EST. At 2 pm EST, the Fed operates on USD exchange rate time from 12;30. At 2 pm, exchange rates traded 1 1/2 hours.

Normally at 12:30, nothing exists to trade due to the broad time span to the RBNZ and RBA Fix times but also because the best pips for profit already traded around 12:30. At 2 pm, the Fed essentially operates on its own time and is in command of its own exchange rates. This statement is true to a certain point but most vital is 12:30.

The Fed tried 12:30 announcements but resorted to 2 pm again when volatility hit markets.

EUR/USD lifted from 1.0358 and traded to 1.0454. Our 24 hour bottom factored Tuesday was 1.0374. To know where 1.0358 was located required a 12:30 factor to find 1.0359 and EUR/USD deeply oversold.

But EUR/USD from the hourly charts opened at 1.0401. A trade long or short for the Fed trade was impossible to touch at 1.0401 particularly when 1.0401 was a neutral price.

EUR/USD 1.0454 contained highs at 1.0439, 1.0484 and 1.0506. The only evidence to shorts and target at 1.0454 was the break higher at 1.0439. Without 1.0439, no correct short entry was known.

The Fed raised 50 points. How does 50 points stack up against movements. EUR/USD traded 80 pips, DXY 91, GBP/USD 103, AUD/USD 88, NZD/USD 76, USD/CAD 79 pips. SPX 113, XAU/USD 33 points.

Traded for the Fed to include cross pairs was 1/2 to total daily ranges. After the 2 pm release, another set of circumstances existed to trade the remaining 1/2. GBP/USD for example traded 103 Fed pips but traded 215 overall pips, EUR/USD traded 80 Fed pips inside an overall 149 pip day.

EUR/NZD was our best trades yesterday as the Fed offered 90 pips but the day traded 294 pips. And the trade and profits were as close to perfect as perfect factors to capture most of 294 pips.

The trade evidence for the Fed only trade fails to stack up against movements. A Fed or central bank trade must be viewed as an off sync news announcement. We’ve seen plenty of 80, 150 and 200 pip days without a central bank announcement. I termed the Fed release hype to garner views. We can add another controversial word, propaganda.

Our weekly, daily, 24 hour and long term trades achieve destinations with and without central bank meetings. The Fed and central banks are meaningless. What matters only is a market price and MA and both are separate from central bank words and actions.

Market movements radically changed since 2016 and will completely change again when ESG garners more momentum. Now in its last stages, ESG proposes to change emission and electricity standards, supply chains and accounting standards. All major global companies are on board by force to adoption of the new methods. Jamie Diamond’s comment to hurricane coming is perfectly on track.

Brian Twomey

Inflation, Currencies, Dow, Nat Gas

As written Sunday, GBP/JPY broke below 164.75 and traded to 163.00’s. Actually traded to low 162.00’s. All received extra pips.

XAU/USD targets 1888.53 and 1889.20, while XAU/EUR targets higher at 1751.09 and 1798.17.

Targets achieved at XAU/USD Highs 1881, XAU/EUR Highs 1791

USD/BRL Next target is located at 5.04 easily. Highs 5.12 from 4.98. Easy trade.
Silver as XAG/EUR or XAG/USD barely trades 1 full point per day. Same as Natural gas.

Nat Gas trade for today

Short 9.0538 to target 8.923. Or Short 9.0538 to target 8.2693. Long 8.2693 to target 8.40. For nat gas, 2 other trade methods exist to profit but my posts as is will earn great profits.

The key to profits is to trade not one way but multiple longs and shorts for profits 1 and 3 X the range. Same for Silver priced in any currency.

Yesterday was posted Corn on Linked In and +32 points for longs and shorts. Ask this question. What do I know about Corn. Nothing but nothing is required to know in order to profit from Corn trades. Longs and shorts achieved targets. Longs and shorts on any given day will achieve targets.

DXY achieved massive overbought status at 105.00’s yesterday. Target today is located at 104.52 and 104.37 for the week. DXY 105.00 remains overbought.

Dow Jones

Broke below 31723.94 to trade 30516.74. Dow Jones traded 776 points yesterday. Not only a normal move but Dow traded barely 3/4 of its normal weekly range. The concept to stock market meltdown is hype and overblown. Today’s Dow target is located at 31364.67.

SOFR

Yesterday traded 0.60 to 0.95. If 095 breaks then target becomes 1.03. The range becomes 0.78 to 1.03.

Currencies

Our currency pairs today are located in tough positions. EUR/USD higher must break 1.0461 and 1.0462 to target 1.0548. May not happen until after 10:00 am. AUD/USD higher must break 0.6977 and 0.6985. NZD/USD 06297 and 0.6305. GBP/USD 1.2213.

USD/CAD’s 5 year average is now 1.2970. EUR/CAD traded yesterday barely 65 pips.

EUR/AUD adds to interesting locations as a wide range currency pair. Shorts today are located at 1.5091while current EUR/AUD trades 1.5105. Targets are located at 1.5055 easily and 1.4905.

As anchor pairs USD Vs Non USD appear stick for this day, wide range pairs is the best trade method. Wide rangers include EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD. EUR/NZD and EUR/AUD are best of the lot.

Inflation

Trump in 4 years spent 2134 billions as M2. Biden in almost 2 years spent 2134 billions. I view Inflation as an economic price problem but not found within the money supply.

The central banks answer however is to treat Inflation as a financial problem rather than a price dilemma. The financial answer is raise interest rates and at a time when economic risk is at stake.

Inflation’s price problem is located in the supply chains or ability to bring goods to market and Oil as required to manufacture goods used in everyday products.

Until the supply chain and oil dilemma is solved, raising interest rates won’t cure the Inflation price problem. Grocery stores for food for example are on rations for many products. Many stores lack ample food supplies. How would raising interest rates solve the food dilemma.

Democrats own the Longshoreman’s unions since the 1930’s and passage of the Wagner Act in 1935. With one phone call, democrats could end the supply chain problem today to release required supplies stranded off shore on tankers.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: G10, EM, SOFR, GOLD, Stock Indices

USD/CAD broke higher last week to trade comfortably above GBP/USD. USD/CAD begins the week not only massively overbought but the 5 year average is located at 1.2971. A break above 1.2971 targets 1.3395.

Overbought USD/CAD sits in contention to overbought CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY. USD/CAD’s overall position is located between GBP/USD and EUR/JPY. USD/CAD continues its months long status as problem currency and earns its place in the bottom portion to overall rankings among 22 currency pairs.

As written May 24, DXY above must break 102.26, 102.94 then 103.23, below 101.62 then 100.81. DXY lifted last week from 101.81 supports to break 103.23 and traded to 104.24. DXY bottom support now sits at 103.00’s and next target is located at 104.82 and just ahead of massive overbought at 105.00’s. DXY shorts for the week is the best trade and complies to USD/CAD’s overbought status.

GBP/JPY achieved long term targets at 168.05 and 168.83. Lows traded to 165.00’s and next stop below is located at 163.00’s on a break at 164.75.

JPY cross pairs begin the week neutral to overbought against a months long trade plan to short highs as JPY cross pairs remain massive overbought short, medium and long term.

No mystery to an overbought USD/JPY and next target is located at 132.11.

  USD V EM

USD/BRL big day Friday for the Real to break above 4.9663 and trade to 5.0120. BRL is well supported at 4.9663, 4.9459 then 4.8818. Next target is located at 5.04 easily.

USD/DKK from 7.0714 begins the week massive overbought and targets shorts to 7.0045. A break below 6.9925 is required to target 6.9450. Overall, USD/DKK is held by 6.8855 to target a larger move lower to 6.8558.

USD/HUF sits in the same massive overbought position as USD/DKK. From 378.31, USD/HUF targets 370.15 then 369.33 easily.

USD/MYR from 4.40 targets 3.3829.

USD/PLN overbought to target 4.3464. Overall supports are located at 4.3317, 4.3277 and 4.2752. USD/PLN sits overbought short, medium and long term.

USD/RON overbought targets 4.6547 from 4.6991. USD/RON sits overbought from the 5 day average to 4000 day.

USD/TRY at richter scale overbought targets 16.8115.

SOFR: Secured Overnight Funding Rate

The new SOFR rate is pretty much the driver to the Fed’s interest rate system as 1 trillion of transactions run through SOFR daily. The current top rate trades 0.95 since May 17 while the bottom rate fluctuates from 0.65 lows to 0.73. The 30 day average is reported at 0.7829 and 90 day at 0.47. The break higher from the low side is located at rates from 0.80, 0.8250, 0.8398. The 180 day rate is reported at 0.2608 however first break line is found at 0.3695.

G10 Trades

Best trade opportunities are found in short USD and long anchor pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Best cross pair trades are found within EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD. CAD/CHF is the better trade to AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF. AUD/CHF is the better trade to NZD/CHF. Nothing exciting to EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD as both trade from the exact same position for each of the past 3 weeks.

XAU/EUR and XAU/USD

The difference between Gold in Euros and USD is the market number. XAU/EUR trades 1700’s while XAU/USD trades 1800’s. Both are the exact same instrument and trade the exact same as Gold is the driver.

While XAU/USD targets a solid line of resistance at 1888.53 and 1889.20, XAU/EUR targets higher at 1751.09 and 1798.17.

XAU/EUR is the driver pair for the week and should outperform XAU/USD by a few points but not much.

Silver priced in Euros as XAG/EUR or USD as XAG/USD is not worth a vew nor trade efforts.

SPX, NASDAQ, DOW Jones

SPX higher must break 3937.74 then 4034.89. NASDAQ first break higher is located at 11452.32 then 11797.18. Dow Jones above 31723.94 trades between 31723.94 to 32314.86 as next break line. Dow Jones potential is trade 2 and 300 points per day and roughly 1000 points per week.

Brian Twomey

24 Hour Trade Results

The EUR trades offered and demonstrated yesterday was to trade from target to target. The only requirement is enter the trades om the platform and walk away as profits are guaranteed.

No need ever exists to watch a screen, use stops, monitor news releases or sit all day and speculate or gamble to any market price. Trading any central bank announcement is literally a breeze although EUR wide rangers was interesting yet highly profitable.

The 24 hour trade is a building block over the past 10 + years to simplify trades and trading as I’m not sitting all day watching screens. To quote Thomas Edison, inventor of the light bulb, I also found 10,000 ways trades and trading doesn’t work. Its the process of research into the market price, any price and any market.

Trade times changed as the 9:30 pm Asia trade was eliminated in favor of the 24 hour trade. Trades are sent after the 4 pm interest rate release. European friends miss nothing as Asia is dead to Mo. and momentum.

Day trades skyrocketed from 8 currencies to 15. Stock indices now include SPX, NASDAQ and DOW Jones. Oil includes WTI. Silver includes XAG/EUR and XAG/JPY or Silver priced in Euros and Yen. Nothing exist to do except a few clicks per day.

To all market prices exists longs and shorts. Currencies remain the best market for profits although NASDAQ and Dow Jones contain built in profits. Its impossible not to profit. However Currencies remain the best, easiest and most profitable trades due to constant movements.

Weekly trades exist as 22 currencies because I can trade 22 currencies perfectly to entries and targets every week in something like 45 of 52 weeks in every year.

EUR/USD Weekly Trade

Long 1.0667 and 1.0657 to target 1.0801. Lows 1.0651, highs 1.0773. Trade Runs +116 pips. We can exit for profit.

Day trade Results

EUR/USD

Target 1.0763 and 1.0766. Highs 1.0773. Note 7 pips from 1.0773 and 1.0766. Vitally important commentary and insight to the market price.

Short target 1.0651 and 1.0655 achieved. EUR/URSD traded to 1.0611 lows. Vitally important is not to trade EUR/USD shorts below 1.0651. The extra pips must fly by without a touch.

EUR/GBP

Targets 0.8581 and 0.8478. Highs 08590, lows 0.8484.

EUR/NZD

Targets 1.6651 then 1.6697 Vs 1.6473 and 1.8429. Highs 1.6733 or extra 36 pips. Lows 1.6582.

EUR/CAD

Targets 1.3468 and 1.3488 Vs 1.3389 and 1.3367. Highs 1.3549 or 61 pips. Lows 1.3426.

EUR/AUD

Targets 1.4956 and 1.4781 and 1.4746. Highs 1.5040 or 84 pips. Lows 1.4891.

EUR/AUD and EUR/CAD appears as a miss. The overall trades were actually perfect. Much information was not offered such as full trades to long and short entries and targets. To the trades exist 2 longs and 2 shorts everyday.

Day trades are ranked for every trade instrument. For today’s currencies are ranked as EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD. Stand clear to AUD/USD, NZD/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/CHF. Nothing special to USD/JPY.

EUR/GBP despite a fairly dead traded currency has turned in a respectable performance lately. EUR/GBP traded 106 pips yesterday, 68 on Wednesday and 72 pips Tuesday.

Nothing special exists today for WTI. EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD contain built in profits to its prices.

XAG/EUR, XAG/JPY, Silver and Gold is not worth any efforts as no real profits exist.
Target to target trades. An imperative to know entry and targets before the trade as entries exists for minutes and fly by quickly. Miss an entry limits profits.

Brian Twomey

Targets: EUR/USD and EUR Cross Pairs

Yesterday’s upside target at 1.0729 and 1.0742 dead stopped at 1.0728 and 1.0739. The 7 hour trade dominated and traded to 1.0739 or 3 pips shy of target. Shorts traded to 1.0718 and 20 pips.

Longs began Tuesday at 24 hour lows at 1.0671.

In the 10 am hour, EUR/USD traded to 1.0748. Part of the explanation is ECB but this concept is momentary and leaving overall trade analysis. EUR/USD 1.0748 offered a short for traders or continued shorts.

Lows for the day achieved 1.0711. Yesterday’s price path was uneven and seen early in the discrepancy to targets. The move to 1.0748 was clear proof as well as shorts to 1.0711 and 1.0718 for lack of follow through to complete the price path. Everyday is different for day trades

Today’s price path is clear for longs and shorts as long above 1.0736 to target 1.0763 and 1.0766 Vs 1.0651 and 1.0655. A clear price path today should be able to trade target to target.

EUR/GBP targets 0.8581 and 0.8478. EUR/GBP will always trade less than EUR/USD as EUR/USD is the leader.

EUR/GBP traded 68 pips yesterday Vs 15 Points for Gold.

EUR/AUD we want 1.4956 and 1.4781 and 1.4746.

EUR/CAD 1.3468 and 1.3488 Vs 1.3389 and 1.3367. EUR/AUD is the better trade than EUR/CAD.

EUR/NZD 1.6651 then 1.6697 Vs 1.6473 and 1.8429.

The weekly trade posted Sunday: long from 1.0667 and 1.0657 to target 1.0801 then short to target 1.0725. Highs achieved 1.0748 or +91 pips so far.

Inside EUR/USD price is wide variation which means EUR/USD prices are sloshing around doing nothing. Any downside means the variation becomes worse and EUR/USD becomes prone to a large upward spike in a big blue candle. Wide variation means shorts will struggle to trade downside prices.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY

EUR/USD target factored yesterday afternoon upon the change of interest rates is 1.0729. Levels to today’s 7 hour trade is located at 1.0715, 1.0728, 1.0735, 1.0742. The upside dsicrepancy exists for 13 pips at 1.0729 Vs 1.0742. The only question to the 13 pip disparity is the exact short entry point to maximize profit from every traded pip.

The bottomside EUR/USD is uniform at 1.0636 Vs 1.0634. Longs are well established to entry. Long and short entries assumes movements exist today in order to enter trades.
No movements then EUR/USD could trade easily 1.0725 to 1.0657 or 1.0713 to 1.0651.

This arrangement happens many times to currencies and other financial instrument day trades such as SPX and WTI.

The EUR/USD trade for today remains long and short. Assume EUR/USD short at 1.0725 or 1.0729 but EUR/USD trades to 1.0742. Nothing happened except the market offers an extra 13 or 17 pips if one extra lot is added.

if the trade runs to 1.0657 then 68 pips are banked or 74 pips to 1.0651 or 89 pips to 1.0636.

The smart approach to longs is target 1.0673 or 1.0679. From 1.0636 = 37 pips or 43 pips to 1.0679. From 1.0651 then 22 pips or 28 pips, from 1.0657 then 16 pips or 22 pips.

The overall smart trade is yesterday’s to target 1.0729 and around 1.0636 because only requirement is set entries and targets then walk away. Most trade days, entries and targets are easily met. The currency or market price doesn’t have other choices except to trade to target.

Trade to target is not a requirement to all traders especially when 93 pips are involved or overall roughly 123 ish pips. To not trade to targets then Trades generate easily 50 and 60 pips daily for each of 9 currency pairs. Not a bad daily haul for doing nothing.

Targets are my personal methodologies/ research and running for nearly 12 years.

To understand targets and locations is to fully know and comprehend the market price so never to lose.

Recall the weekly trade posted Sunday: long from 1.0667 and 1.0657 to target 1.0801 then short to target 1.0725. Lows achieved yesterday at 1.0651 and highs so far at 1.0713. From 1.0657, the trade runs 56 pips.

GBP/JPY from long term averages targets 168.05 and 168.83. Previous high was located at 168.35. USD/JPY traded higher from 126 support and allowed JPY cross pairs to trade higher. GBP/JPY led the charge as normal and remainder JPY cross pairs while sickly overbought traded alongside GBP/JPY.

GBP/JPY will eventually lead JPY cross pairs lower. CAD/JPY then EUR/JPY are the next best to the overall big 3.
GBP/JPY targets a move back to 164.67 and USD/JPY to 131.55.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: EUR/USD V DXY, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD

The currency market story this week to normal moves and no significant breaks to averages is found in the DXY Vs EUR/USD relationship. DXY vital average breaks as supports are located at 101.65, 101.93 then many averages exist at 100.00’s. Topside averages are found at 102.01, 102.17 then 103.14. Overall range 103.14 to 101.65 or 149 pips. DXY massive break to change the overall trend to much lower levels is located at 97.00’s.

DXY’s current downside trajectory at current 102.00’s is the result of the overall move from 89.00 in February 2021 to 104.95 May 2022 highs or 1500 pips. In 15 months from 89.00’s to 104.00’s, DXY averaged roughly 225 pips per month. From 104.95 last month, DXY dead stopped at vital 101.38 or 357 pips at a rough average at 178 pips per month.

EUR/USD broke below its 5 year average at 1500’s last November 2021 and traded 1200 pips to 1.0350 lows May 2022. EUR/USD’s ultra slow crawl averaged roughly 75 pips per month in each of 16 months to 1.0300’s.

While DXY averages 149 pips from 101.65 to 103.14, EUR/USD ranges from 1.0826 to 1.0623 or 203 pips. Recall last week’s range from 1.0818 to 1.0583 and 1.0556 or roughly 235 and 262 pips. DXY and EUR/USD are currently running nearly a pip to pip race as EUR/USD ranges slightly wider than DXY but only by 54 pips. EUR/USD averages are rising while DXY averages are falling.

No dramatic moves nor breaks to significant averages is the result of the DXY V EUR/USD relationhship until the logjam is eventually broken.

EUR/USD Vs NZD/USD

EUR/USD’s big break for higher is located 1.0826 and NZD/USD 0.6591. Both breaks result to significantly higher levels however DXY must trade to near low 101.00’s for breaks to occur.

The Week

EUR/USD

EUR/USD lifetime lows occurred in 1997 at 1.0406 then 2017 at 1.0346 at the end of the ECB’s negative interest rate program and 1.0350 in May 2022. The break lower at 1.0406 gave us 1.0346 but 1.0346 held last month at 1.0350. A lower EUR/USD must crack below 1.0350 and 1.0346.

Many are short EUR/USD with 1.0300’s as targets. Not close nor likely anytime soon. Lower targets if seen must trade above 1.0350.

Last week 1.0818 big break as written won’t trade higher. EUR/USD achieved 1.0786 highs. This week’s vital average at 1.0826 also won’t break nor will 1.0826 hold upon a break.

EUR/USD big break above are located at 1.0742, 1.0767, 1.0775, 1.0792, 1.0801, 1.0813, 1.0819. We’re long from 1.0667 and 1.0657 to target 1.0801 then short to target 1.0725.

JPY Cross Pairs

JPY cross pairs begin the week in stratospheric overbought territory. The message is short anywhere to target 200 pips lower. Start with the big 3 movers as GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY. JPY cross pairs contain 1 trade and 1 direction as short is the only way forward.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is not only massive overbought from the 5 day average to 1998 averages but supports are located at 129.75, 129.91. USD/JPY’s trend changes to short upon a break at 125.14. Overbought USD/JPY complies to overbought JPY cross pairs as both again correlate in high +90%.

GBP

The shining star for the week is GBP/USD and GBP cross pairs as GBP currencies across the board are deeply oversold. Best trades are GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/JPY. GBP/USD above targets are 1.2637, 1.2673 and 1.2710. GBP/USD higher represents a correction higher from oversold until 1.2784 breaks higher.

AUD

AUD/USD contains problems this week as AUD/USD is fighting against overbought AUD/JPY and AUD/CHF Vs oversold AUD/CAD. Better and easier trades exist to pay more without struggling with AUD/USD levels. AUD/USD strategy for the week is short but don’t expect dramatic moves.

NZD

NZD/USD is in a much better position than its AUD/USD counterpart. NZD/JPY is massively overbought while NZD/CHF, NZD/USD and NZD/CAD sits deeply oversold. NZD is the better trade than AUD.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD contains problems over many past months. CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF as the same exact currencies rose higher into deeper overbought territory while USD/CAD sat idle.

USD/CAD at 1.2500’s, GBP/USD at 1.2500’s and previous USD/JPY at 126.00’s were all in contention to each other as all contained the same exchange rates. USD/JPY broke higher, GBP/USD lower and USD/CAD remained stuck in the middle without direction nor purpose.

USD/CAD ranges from vital breaks at 1.2974, below at 1.2366 and a fat average at 1.2712 stuck in the middle. USD/CAD is a terrific currency and good mover to pay much but last months, USD/CAD traded complete dead.

USD/CAD from 1.2591 fits into the family of exchange rates is supports to USD/JPY, EUR/CAD and EUR/JPY while USD/CAD serves as tops to GBP/CHF. Currently, GBP/USD and USD/CAD are in the battle for dominance as USD/CAD is the higher exchange rate. GBP/USD must cross above USD/CAD to trade higher.

10 Year Yield

The 10 year sits on supports at 2.9125 and 1.9010. A break lower targets 2.81. The 10 year will struggle to trade to 3.00’s and won’t see 3.00’s anytime soon.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and FX Next Week

EUR/USD from yesterday’s long 1.0642 to target 1.0795. EUR/USD achieved highs so far at 1.0764 or +122 pips. EUR/USD for NFP could easily trade to 1.0801 and 1.0807 then short to target 1.0752 and break targets 1.0720’s. Once EUR/USD achieves it highs then short for the day is the way to trade.

EUR/USD close today could easily achieve 1.0720’s and not a good location for next week’s longs or shorts as next week would begin at fairly dead neutral. Same story as last week when EUR/USD opened at 1.0734.

EUR/USD overall support is derived from deeply oversold EUR/CHF, EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD yet overbought to EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP. EUR/USD big break for higher is now located at 1.0830 and a continued rise to all averages.

Break higher from 1.0830 targets easily 1.0933 then 1.0984. The EUR/USD long side prevails next week.

USD/JPY rose from 114.00’s to 131.00’s. At current 129.00’s and 130.00’s, USD/JPY trades at the top of the range and deeply overbought short, medium and long term. USD/JPY should trade today to easily 129.28.

GBP/JPY overall range is located from, 148.00’s to 168.00’s. At 163.00’s, GBP/JPY trade near its range top. Good target today is 162.85 from short 163.87.
NZD/USD’s big break is found at 0.6593 and targets today 0.6587 and 0.6590. Good short opportunity to target 0.6535.

JPY cross pairs contain a long way to go on the downside and from the big 3 as GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY.

GBP/USD for NFP targets 1.2625 while EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD offer good lomgs heading into next week.

DXY is again located at solid supports at 100 and 101.

For SPX today, targets 4202 on the up side and 4048 below.

Next Week’s markets will trade the exact same as this week: fairly neutral without dramatic moves.

Brian Twomey, for trades brian@btwomey.com

EUR/USD

As written May 27 in the EUR/USD V NZD/USD post: If EUR/USD or NZD fails to break vital points higher then both will trade a deep dive in a long red candle. EUR/USD traded its deep dive in a long red candle. Most importantly as written in the Fx weekly on Sunday: 1.0818 won’t break this week.

True to the written word, here’s the EUR/USD weekly trades. Short 1.0795 to target 1.0642. Highs this week achieved 1.0786 and lows to 1.0626. Traders earned 16 extra downside pips. The 7 pips miss on the topside had to compensate for the 7 downside. Makes sense. No but we continue, continuamos.

So far traders also earned +144 pips. The trade was guaranteed based on the principles of moving averages, correct moving averages and regardless to economic announcements, Macro, Yields, central bank blah, blah stuff. In fact, 99% to all the written words didn’t matter to the trade.

The upside to the weekly trade comes next for more profit pips. Long 1.0642 to target 1.0795. EUR/USD achieved highs so far at 1.0694 or +52 pips.

A this stage, traders banked 196 pips for the week in 4 days. The weekly range traded 160 pips. Weekly trades fails to include 24 hour trades as day trades offer many more pips than 196.

Will EUR/USD trade to 1.0795. Easily achievable above 1.0771 on breaks at 1.0718 and 1.0744. Traders may easily walk away for the week especially to those with a busy life or continue to earn profit pips. EUR/USD is only 1 of 20 currencies traded for the week.

Additionally, 1 more round of 24 hour trades exist to the week and not included to today’s trade. Ironically, today’s upside target is located at 1.0766.

EUR/USD’s big break for higher is now 1.0824. Overall averages are rising on a downside price. This situation informs, EUR/USD downside is limited and must travel higher as averages become far more oversold. Averages refers to 5 day to 1998.

Located on the downside is 1.0611, 1.0558 and 1.0505. Current EUR/USD in the 1.0600’s are deeply oversold and the strategy remains long.

Brian Twomey