FX Next Week

EUR/USD topside yesterday was set against targets at 1.0256 and 1.0259. Both extraordinary moves for the day and both targets achieved for big profits yet EUR/USD breaks vital 1.0285 and trades another 82 pips to 1.0367. Note the location of 1.0285 as dead center of the hourly candle.


The break of 1.0285 then placed EUR/USD from 1.0285 to 1.0350. What allowed EUR/USD to travel higher was the ECB at 10:00 then EUR/USD was good until 1.0304. The BOE at 11 am stopped EUR/USD to begin the long slide lower to 1.0320. The Fed at 12:30 then settled EUR/USD at 1.0296 from 1.0367 highs or71 pips.


EUR/USD yesterday traded for the day overall 167 pips and about 67 more than normal. On the surface appears as just another EUR/USD trade day but 1.0285 set EUR/USD off 82 of the 167 pips or 1/2 of its total 167 pip range.


The 2 most vital points to traded markets are overall ranges and range points such as 1.0285. How much was 1.0285 respected was seen in the weekly trade target at 1.0283. Friends and subscribers profits were 130 ish pips but the pips were easy and guaranteed. And the trade duration was 4 days.


Range Vs Price shares the most unique relationships and most vital to understand market trading.


What were the trade options. Not only was EUR/USD overbought at 1.0285 for the day but 1.0285 location was dangerous. The only option was short and short anywhere.
EUR/USD moves yesterday were unusual, extraordinary and in mathematical weirdo ville. Correct was EUR/USD to reverse at 1.0250’s.

Who or possibly which central bank took EUR/USD higher from 1.0285 is unknown. We’re not privy to such information anymore as was the norm in the old days from the top 4 banks. Previously, the top 4 banks release Flow Reports to determine who to major banks and central banks were big buyers and sellers.


EUR/USD Big break for higher is now 1.0420 and the range becomes 1.0357 to 1.0294. Below 1.0294 targets 1.0231 easily. EUR/USD Friday should close in the vicinity of 1.0168. The lower for EUR/USD is the better for the long trade next week.


GBP/JPY shorts yesterday at 163.82 traded to 163.64 then began the long drop to 161.00’s. GBP/JPY vital at 162.01 allowed GBP/JPY to trade to 161.00’s. Big break for higher is now 162.05.


EUR/JPY is on the verge to trade lower at 136.95. EUR/JPY is a horrible currency at the moment heading into week 3. EUR/JPY trades neutral to neutral without significant progress. EUR/JPY is more suited as a day trade. EUR/JPY broke vital 136.93 and traded 30 pips lower to 136.60. This should serve as a warning to EUR/JPY.


DXY achieved 106.45 and USD/CAD 1.2990’s. As written yesterday, USD/CAD 1.2958 Vs DXY 106.45. The DXY V USD/CAD differential spread from 20 ish pips to 40’s.


Higher for USD/CAD must break 1.2835. DXY now enters its next range from 103.00’s to 105.00’s. Vital above is located at 105.54, 105.76 and 105.80 Vs 104.30 below.
The breaks below for DXY was significant as much as 1.0285 was for EUR/USD.


AUD/USD broke above 0.7001 and lower for AUD/USD must crack 0.7013. Current range 0.7055 to 0.7096 then begins overbought and shorts.


Most important to overall currency markets is NZD/USD break above 0.6362 and today 0.6368. NZD/USD at 0.6417 is fairly neutral which means NZD has every ability to travel to 0.6500’s or break below 0.6368. We’re short next week in the vicinity of 0.6490’s or long upon a break of 0.6368.


GBP/AUD yesterday was written longs at 1.7395. Correct was short at 1.7395. Deeply oversold GBP/AUD should be a big winner for longs next week. Same story for EUR/AUD.


USD/JPY for next week 131.61.


GBP/USD. Looking for a close around 1.2104 for longs next week. A close much higher then GBP/USD is on the last place of the trade rank list.


EUR/NZD as written yesterday long for a quick 50 pips at 1.6178. EUR/NZD traded 1.6150 to 1.6274. EUR/NZD current trades deeply oversold and informs NZD/USD could easily break 0.6368.


Gold traded 20 points yesterday and expected to trade 10 points today. SPX traded 31 points yesterday and within the 25 point framework. Max today is right at 47 pips.

Brian Twomey

Day Trades: EUR, GBP, AUD, EUR/NZD

EUR/USD this week to its weekly range trades from 1.0283 to 1.0147 or 136 pips. Today’s range: 1.0285 to 1.0155 or 130 pips. Yet another dead EUR/USD week is upon us. The benefit is day trades all week are located within the parameters of 1.0285 to 1.0155.


Today’s topside EUR/USD for example is located at 1.0258 and 1.0262. Far short to 1.0285. Bottom EUR/USD 1.0154 and 1.0172.
Today’s Inflation trade appears from yesterday afternoon to be a non event as today’s prices lack range ability which means Inflation is released as expected and prices trade in tiny ranges.


The trade strategy is short highs and long bottoms. Same strategy as if today wasn’t Inflation day.


DXY traded highs this week at 106.81 and between 106.52 to 107.01. DXY traded 83 pips this week from 106.81 to 105.97. Sunday’s range 105.47 to 106.52 and 107.01.


DXY Vs SPX


DXY traded 71 pips Monday Vs SPX 45 points. Tuesday DXY traded 43 pips to SPX 57 points.


DXY is expected to trade today at 106.45 highs and 105.90 lows Vs SPX 4141 Vs 4107.
Neither DXY nor SPX contains any ability to move today except within the same dull ranges. DXY is the problem and as long as DXY fails to move then SPX and Commodities follows non movements. The currency price is the driver to Stock and Commodity markets. When DXY decides to move then Stocks and commodities trade from dead ranges.


View DXY and SPX trades together as 25 point increments especially SPX.
AUD/USD big break is located at 0.7003 and the same story as last week. AUD/USD is going nowhere fast.


From 12 currency for 24 hour trades, here’s the lineup: GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, GBP/USD.


GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY are fairly standard everyday for 24 hour trades as best trades. EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD gain advantage by not only wide ranges but a dead AUD. EUR/CAD is best of the wide range group which informs again, not much is happening today.


EUR/NZD at current 1.6207 is at bottom range 1.6178 and good for a quick 50 pips higher. EUR/AUD at 1.4652 trades dead center to middle range. Longs are located in the vicinity of 1.4562 while GBP/AUD also trades middle range and untouchable. Longs are located around 1.7395.


GBP/JPY at 163.30 is untouchable. Shorts are located from 163.82 or longs from around 162.61. GBP/JPY big break for lower is found today at 162.01.


GBP/USD range from Sunday 1.2174 to 1.2013 held. Watch shorts at 1.2130 and longs around 1.2013.


NZD/USD tops at 0.6313 and 0.6328.


USD/CAD traded 113 pips this week Vs DXY at 86. USD/CAD highs today: 1.2958 Vs DXY 106.45. USD/CAD Lows today 1.2828 Vs DXY lows 105.90. The 2 trades should coincide perfectly. USD/CAD exceeds DXY ranges by about 20 ish pips.


EUR/JPY big break for lower at 136.93 is a good guide for next week. Overall, short JPY cross pairs remains the strategy.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD

DXY traded 186 pips last week. The main problem pair within overall currency markets is USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Then the question: how are currency pairs trading against each other within the respective universe.


USD/USD traded 500 pips last week but broken down from the vital 131 point, USD/JPY traded 155 pips below and 394 pips above. USD/JPY 155 pips below was perfectly normal. USD/JPY however at 394 = DXY 2 times and EUR/USD 2.5 times. USD/JPY is trading erratic and far to high ranges in relation to DXY and EUR/USD as its main counterparts. The story grows worse to JPY cross pairs.


USD/JPY Vs JPY cross Pairs


USD/JPY at 500 pips in relation to cross pair ranges trades as: EUR/JPY 429 pips, GBP/JPY 452, AUD/JPY 327, CAD/JPY 328 and NZD/JPY 259.


EUR/JPY is clearly the problem pair and earns last ranking for the 2nd week. USD/JPY correlates to EUR/JPY at 82% and minus 62% to EUR/USD. EUR/JPY against a high USD/JPY correlation transforms itself as a USD currency to match USD in USD/JPY

. At 429 pips equates to 2.5 times EUR/USD and 2.3 times DXY but below USD/JPY
The main factor and problem to USD/JPY is trade ranges higher than JPY cross pairs. Correct is JPY cross pairs trade higher ranges than USD/JPY.

Instead, USD/JPY trades even matches to EUR/JPY as USD/JPY Vs DXY at 2.3 times and 2.5 times EUR/USD. USD/JPY is clearly the leader to JPY cross pairs and consistent to overall currency market anchor pairs.


AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY as usual were perfect in relation to ranges and big trade weeks while GBP/JPY was erratic yet consistent to EUR/JPY.


Despite today’s analysis, best trades for the future week to week will remain USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs. Most consistent JPY cross pairs are CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. Most volatile are EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. To understand EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY is to profit much in the weeks ahead.


Watch this week EUR/JPY 136.81 and GBP/JPY 162.04.


EUR/USD’s big break is now 1.0418 and dropping. The weekly range is confined from 1.0283 to 1.0147 or 136 pips Vs last week from 1.0283 to 1.0136. Same EUR/USD on a different week.


EUR/USD Cross Pairs


Last week: EUR/CHF 89 pips, EUR/USD 169, EUR/JPY 429, EUR/CAD 190, EUR/AUD 276 and EUR/NZD 216. EUR/NZD is clearly light to trade ranges and should trade the most pips overall and far above EUR/AUD. Explains up and down weeks to trade rankings.
GBP/USD range this week 1.2174 to 1.2013.


GBP Cross Pairs


GBP/CHF 151, GBP/USD 289, GBP/JPY 452, GBP/CAD 268, GBP/AUD 335, GBP/NZD 387. GBP/NZD not bad but light compared to GBP/AUD. GBP/CAD correct should trade much higher than GBP/USD.


AUD/USD big break for higher this week: 0.7001.


AUD Cross Pairs


AUD/CHF 131, AUD/USD 177, AUD/JPY 327, AUD/CAD 155, AUD/NZD 150. AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD clear drivers to AUD/CHF and AUD/USD. Watch AUD/CAD at vital 0.8986 while AUD/NZD achieves overbought and short from middle 1.1100’s.
Oversold NZD/USD must cross 0.6357 for higher.


NZD Cross Pairs


NZD/CHF 70 pips, NZD/USD 140, NZD/JPY 259, NZD/CAD 141. NZD/CAD is clearly a problem to NZD/USD and must trade higher to assist NZD/USD rises. NZD/CAD traded the exact same amount of pips as NZD/USD. NZD/CAD ranges this week: 0.8090 – 0.8019.


DXY vitals above 106.03 and 105.48. Below 105.48 targets 105.10 and the same trade as last week. Above vitals 106.52, 107.01, 107.18 and 107.39. Same DXY, different week.
GBP was the lead trade category last week and should remain the best trades this week.


Labor Force Participation Rate
At current 62% is within middle range to the 83 year history of NFP release from 60 to 65.

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD and FX Next Week

As written yesterday, GBP/USD highs were located at 1.2197, 1.2214 and 1.2233. GBP/USD traded perfectly to 1.2214. Lows at 1.2072 and 1.2063 traded exactly to 1.2064. Then longs dead stopped perfectly at reported range top at 1.2174.


Vital to 1.2214 and 1.2063 are perfect levels. GBP/USD knew exactly where it would trade. If GBP/USD traded in between price at an interval then the message is GBP/USD contains a hesitant price and is not certain to direction.


The larger range yesterday was 1.2174 to 1.2009. GBP/USD traded 40 pips above 1.2174. Next week’s range: 1.2181 Vs 1.2020.


GBP/JPY short strategy traded 200 pips lower. Longs next week must trade above 162.07.


DXY traded 178 pips this week while USD/CAD traded 124 pips. USD/CAD’s months long problem is short ranges to DXY. USD/CHF traded 181 pips Vs DXY 178.


SPX traded 88 pips this week, 226 last week and 188 points 2 weeks ago. SPX trades consistent to DXY 200 ish pip ranges. A free trade to longs and shorts for free money occurs when SPX trades above or below DXY ranges.


EUR/USD’s overall range this week began at 1.0283 to 1.0136. Next week: 1.0290 Vs 1.0155. EUR/USD big break for higher 1.0425. What is EUR/USD doing. Exactly nothing. The numbers may change slightly but the location remains the same week to week. Plus, EUR/USD trades consistent to ranges.


The number 00 to end an exchange rate trades but not very often. Today is unusual. GBP/USD top target today is 1.2200, AUD/USD 0.7000. USD/JPY 134.00.


USD/CAD price path today: 1.2876, 1.2884,1.2892, 1.2900, 1.2916, 1.2924, 1.2933.


GBP/JPY is an outlier currency pair and here’s today’s set up.


161.96, 162.06, 162.26, 162.36, 162.46, 162.56, 162.67
Bottom 161.45 achieves by 161.65 and 161.85


Upper target 162.67
Continuation Fail 162.26


Note ending numbers, 5, 6 and 7. GBP/JPY works on a 2 pip differential as a permanent fixture to its prices and won’t ever change.


USD/JPY traded 415 pips this week while JPY/USD traded 235 pips. JPY/USD 235 Vs DXY 178 is key to USD/JPY.


USD/JPY big break for lower next week is located at 131.55 and the larger range trades from 136.12 to 133.83 then 132.69. Ranges inform next week 131.55 holds and we range trade.


AUD/USD will trade exactly as this week: Caught between AUD/EUR and EUR/AUD. As written Sunday, AUD/USD targets higher at 0.7080’s or longs from 0.6887 to 0.6913. AUD/USD 0.7080;s traded 0.7047 then perfect to 0.6887.


NZD/USD big break for higher is found at 0.6360. NZD/USD must break minimum 0.6325 for any chance at 0.6260 but then NZD/USD trades in no man’s land and untouchable.


AUD/JPY 92.01 and NZD/JPY 83.53 for lower. Deeply oversold CAD/JPY must break 102.43.


EUR/CAD will trade next week from 1.3236 to 1.3088 while GBP/CAD trades from 1.5671 to 1.5499.

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD

DXY achieved 106.82 highs yesterday and 106.82 was located from 106.94 to 106.52 as written Sunday. As DXY achieved weekly highs, EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD dropped. USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs jumped higher from DXY 105.05 lows. DXY for the week traded its usual 177 pips and inside the 200 pip ranges.


The BOE raised 25 points June 16 and GBP traded higher on both June 15 and June 15. The RBA raised and AUD/USD dropped. The RBNZ raised July 13 and NZD/USD traded higher but dropped April 13th on the last raise. EUR/USD traded higher when the ECB raised. USD/CHF dropped om the SNB raise.


When markets shifted in 1972 from Gold and 1% Bretton Woods ranges to interest rates, nobody had a clue what to do nor how how to trade. Bid and Ask spreads to interest rates went ballistic and out of control. Interest rate dealers profited far more than their fair share and knocked market prices off kilter.


When markets finally rightsized, the moving average and interest rates to current traded markets was born and became a permanent fixture since 1972. The moving average is vital today for trades but the moving average must be correct. A chart average is not correct. Add the CMT Association to the long list of criminals and non credible traders today. What a colossal waste of time.


GBP/USD and GBP cross pairs are traded today as long when oversold and short when the price becomes overbought. The moving average informs what to do. GBP/JPY’s big break for lower is located at 162.17. GBP/JPY trades current 163.40’s. Short is the trade.


GBP/USD tops are located at 1.2197, 1.2214 and 1.2233. Lows and long are found at 1.2072 and 1.2063. GBP/USD for the past 24 hour trades, achieved 1.2128 to 1.2175 or 47 pips.


What is traded today is a tiny portion inside the larger range from 1.2174 to 1.2009. No mystery to highs at 1.2175.


Whatever the BOE decides, GBP/USD is expected to normal 50 ish pips. But this is GBP as GBP/USD maybe a middle currency pair but its assigned larger ranges than AUD/USD and EUR/USD. This explains GBP/USD’s ability to trade absolute dead or go ballistic. Its the typical skitzo nature imbedded in GBP.


For interested, see Ron Paul and Lew Lehrman a Case for Gold for a fascinating GBP history.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY, JPY Cross Pairs

The RBA raised OCR by 50 points and AUD/USD dropped 56 pips or almost 1 pip per 50 points. If short from 0.6993 to current 0.6926 lows then all have + 67 pips added to accounts. If short from 0.7047 then + 121 pips added to accounts.


If AUD/USD was oversold then AUD/USD would’ve traded 56 pips higher. The market doesn’t care about Central banks nor raises or drops. The market cares deeply to an average and this drives market prices. A target price is written in Mathematical stone and only Jesus Christ has ability to change this formula.
DXY broke 105.49 and target at 105.15 traded to 105.05.

DXY this week could easily trade to next ranges from 105.00’s to 103.00’s.


Last week EUR/USD range: 1.0302 to 1.0148 or 154 pips. This week 1.0283 to 1.0136 or 147 pips. 2 Weeks ago 1.0309 to 1.0141 or 168 pips.


Overall Ranges, 168, 154, 147. EUR/USD Weekly actually traded 161 pips last week then 206 and 233 pips. EUR/USD beat its weekly ranges by 50 ish pips in 2 of the last 3 weeks. EUR/USD this week traded 9 pips above 1.0283 to 1.0292 then dropped 68 pip to current 1.0215.


What affect did interest rate changes and central bank words and deeds apply to EUR/USD? Nero effect as the market price doesn’t care.


If interest rates effect no changes to market prices, employment as the most lagging indicator available, extracts zero conversations to market prices and much less to overall monetary policy. Inflation achieved 7.5% in January and 6 months later, we’re beginning to hear about major layoffs to big companies. Employment lacks a gauge to Monetary policy.


Th market story however is found in USD/JPY break below 132.38 then trade to lows at 130.38 and almost at our 129.00’s target. Higher for USD/JPY must break 131.98. JPY cross pairs followed USD/JPY as all broke significant averages.


Higher for cross pairs must break GBP/JPY 162.32, EUR/JPY 137.31, AUD/JPY 92.18, NZD/JPY 83.68, CAD/JPY 102.68. GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY trade deep oversold.


CHF/JPY remains the last hold out to break lower at 137.37.


USD/JPY traded 200 pips this week. The 10 Year yield traded 0.17 points and 2 year traded 0.10. The USD/JPY story was never about yields.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD Weekly Ranges

Last week EUR/USD 1.0302 to 1.0148 or 154 pips. This week 1.0283 to 1.0136 or 147 pips. What changed week to week, nothing. 2 Weeks ago 1.0309 to 1.0141or 168 pips.

Ranges, 168, 154, 147.

Action forex or whatever this thing is on my site was placed on site 12 and 14 years ago. I checked. Please exclude any commentary and proposed trades as they are wrong and not trusted. I don’t know how to eliminate from my site.

Please also exclude McGinley Dynamic from Investopedia as this is another whacked organization not to be trusted. If interested in the McGinley Dynamic, read exactly what I wrote as valid. I once had a massive problem with John McGinley when I wrote about his Dynamic on Investopedia.

The man is powerful and well connected. I haven’t investigated years later after my writings but I believe I stand by my words from all those years ago. John is a PHD from Harvard and put his life into that indicator. We later became friends with open discussions.

Interested in subscriptions, brian@btwomey.com. We’re trading 11 currencies per day, 20 currencies weekly, WTI daily and weekly, Brent daily and weekly and SPX, daily and weekly. XAU/USD is currently on the agenda, daily and weekly.

I’m out here to assist subscribers otherwise no reason exists to write any longer. No subscribers then I stop writing and go total private. I completely disappear.

Brian Twomey