SPX, USD/JPY, BOJ

SPX500 at 4800’s are lifetime highs since 1970 lows 68.70. Above 4800’s assumes new lifetime highs. Targets are located at 4924.02, 5070.74, 5108.99, 5182.86 and 5201.53. Note Targets at every 100 points or the same 100 points resistance to DXY.


Deep caution exists not only at 4800’s but a long term short only strategy is warranted. SPX 5200’s are maxed no matter how its viewed from 68.00 lows to lows dating from 2022 to 1970.


Years 2022, 20221 and 2020 were best trade years for SPX since 2015 or 7 years. Lows at 1800’s in 2015 traveled 3000 points to 4800’s. The number 7 or Genesis 41 as the 7 rich years and 7 lean years pertinent to all markets.


Prior to 2019, SPX was averaging 20 – 66 points per month on yearly ranges from 247 to 595 points per year. Yearly ranges expanded from 247 lows in 2015 to 1400 points in 2022.


2022 = 4800 to 3400, a drop of 1400 points or -29% and 116 points per month.
2021= 3660 to 4800’s or +1148.81 or +31% and 95 points per month.


2020 = 2199.35 to 3766.47, +1567.12 or +71% and 130 points per month.
2019 =2448.14 to 3244.86 or +796 points or +32% and 66 points per month.


2018 =2346.89 to 2942.20 or +595 points or +25% and 49 points per month.
2017 = 2248.87 to 2695.18 or +446 points or +19% and 37 points per month.


2016 = 1813.47 to 2277.20 or +463 points, or +25% and 38 points per month.
2015 = 1867.86 to 2115.64 or +247 or +13% and 20 points per month.


From 2008 to 2022, SPX traded an average at 302 points per year from 4239 points.


SPX vital average to break on the downside is the 5 year at 3451.53. Further averages are located at 3577.18, 3504.24, 3309.87, 2942.14, 2739.01.


Break below 3500’s offers the best challenge to trade below the 5 year average to target 2900’s and 2700’s and 2098.83 on a much longer term basis.


USD/JPY Vs DXY


USD/JPY traded 3800 pips in 2022 from 113.00’s to 151.00. The big line break above remains 136.00’s however 132.66 was vital to further downside.


USD/JPY 5, 10 and `14 year averages are located at 113.00, 111.00 and 103.00’s and offer targets at 123.00’s, 121.00’s and 118.00’s. All average are richter scale overbought.


BOJ


Read academic papers since 1900’s and found is 12 and 15 economic experiments all failed miserably. The BOJ are complete failures as I call them the Gang that can’t shoot straight.


Experiment is the key word as the BOJ must control markets and prices. Its an ideological control and impossible to break from a deeply conservative midset.

Note the terms of Japanese Corporate governance as Keiritsu and Zaibatsu means monopoly or financial clique. The system ruled Japan from 1868 to current day. A keiretsu and Zaibatsu are grouped industries with a bank inside the group to serve finance interests. Keiretsu’s and Zaibatsu’s prevented imports in the 1980’s as outside trade failed to crack the Keiretsu interlock.


The BOJ pegged USD/JPY to GDP and the money supply in the 1990’s and as the money supply was volatile so then was USD/JPY. This experiment failed.

The BOJ Pegged USD/JPY to GBP/JPY then Gold in the 1930’s and failed.


Today its YCC or Yield Control or to first purchase 2 year bonds, then 10 and now expand purchases.


Note all BOJ governors hail from the same Prefectures and all cut from the same mold. BOJ Governors since 1882 hail from Southern Japan and South of Tokyo. Of the 31 past Governors, all were represented by 9 of the total 47 Prefectures.


As usual, the BOJ are off to the races to meet its next failure.

Brian Twomey