BOJ History and Current Board, USD/JPY

As a continuation to the April 30, 2017 long article entitled “BOJ Appointments and Implications”, the 2 leading candidates to replace Kuroda in April when his term ends are: Masayoshi Amamiya and Nakoso Hiroshi. Masayoshi term ends March 19 and Kuroda April 8 therefore the announcement to the next BOJ Governor may materialize sooner than expected.


Where both become interesting and unusual is both were born in Tokyo. Only 4 Governors became leaders from Tokyo since the BOJ began in 1882 ot 141 years. The last was Mayekawa 1979 and Yamigiwa 1956.
All past Governors were born south of Tokyo and from southern Prefectures as: Fukuoka 2, Hyogo 3, Oita 5, Kagoshima 3, Yamagata 3. Kuroda is from Fukuoka. Of the 31 past Governors, all were represented by 9 of the total 47 Japan Prefectures and all from southern Japan..


Historically, Japan changed and split by ascension of Emperor Meiji in the 1860’s. Previously, Japan was isolated for 250 years. Emperor Meiji opened Japan not only to the western world but to catapult Japan to a leading economic nation. Meiji was the leader as the Meiji restoration referred to the Emperor as the “Supreme Executive authority” of Japan.


Meiji was not only born in Southern Japan from Kyoyo and the home to all past emperors but the introduction of the Charter of 5 Principles to upgrade schools and education, creation of the Japanese Parliament known as the Diet, government agencies and adopt western ways lifted Japan into the modern day.


Since the Charter of 5 Principles, southern Japan ruled and dominated not only the BOJ and Prime Ministers but northern Japan was satisfied to its 1860’s isolationist and economic positions.


BOJ 2017


The question to stimulus and Yield Control is not elimination to the policy but to Tweak the program. While Kuroda and Prime Minister Abe saw virtues to Yield Control, Shirakawa, Takahide Kiuch and Takehiro Soto dissented in favor of Yield Control adjustment. Soto was replaced by Goshi Kataoka and ally to stimulus and Yield Control. BOJ.


BOJ 2023


The tweak aspect to yield Control and stimulus derived historically from BOJ members from not Southern Japan but from the North and Tokyo and Kanto Prefectures. Naoki Tamura from Kyoto and Adachi Seiji from Fukuroka are southern members and current exceptions to the 9 member board to favor tweaks to Yield Control.


WAKATABE Masazumi from the north at Kanagawa term ends March 19.


From 2012 to 2017, The BOJ votes based on actual Minutes ran consistently 7 -2 to include favorability to Stimulus and Yield Control.


With appointment to Amamiya or Hiroshi to the BOJ, northern Japan will dominate the Board by votes at 6 to 3 southern members and 2 of the 3 members favor adjustment while Nakagawa Junko from the south at Gukuora is questionable.


The Tweak or elimination to stimulus and Yield Control becomes the question to policy moving forward. The adjustment or tweak appears as a done deal but then comes the question to how far to adjustments and will the northern board eliminate Yield Control in favor of wholesale policy changes as the policy is off to yet another BOJ failure.


USD/JPY


USD/JPY big break now falls from 135.00 to 134.81. Vital levels: 129.30, 131.14, 132.98 and 133.89 Vs below 127.47 and 125.26.

Brian Twomey