An interest rate from nation to nation is exactly like the relationships between and among currency pairs. An overbought or oversold currency pair is the same concept as saying the interest rate is overbought or oversold. The interest rate then shares the same position as the currency price.
Note AUD/USD and RBA interest rates. All Bank Bills trade above the OCR rate at 3.60. AUD/USD as a trade strategy is long only. As long as Bank Bills trade above OCR then the long only strategy holds from today to whenever.
Note ECB’s Ester Rate at 2.87 and notice all Euribor rates trading above 2.87 Ester. All nations are in the exact same positions. EUR/USD trade strategy is long and holds long as Euribor trades above Ester.
I haven’t viewed NZD and the RBNZ but I guarantee, New Zealand Bank Bills trade above OCR.
Will the ECB raise. The position of Euribor above Ester is prime ripe for a raise.
Understand just 1/2 to what I’m writing and I assure all, no surprises will ever exist in markets. I also assure all, this is not rocket science but its rocket science to today’s dumb ass currency analysts, trade services and the crooked web sites that support these people.
These people watch screens everyday, all day and always surprised. And I’m sorry to say but these people are incompetent and dangerous to the trading crowds.
Euribor 1 week: 2.872 %
Euribor 1 month: 3.052 %
Euribor 3 month: 3.265 %
Euribor 6 month: 3.645 %
Euribor 1 year: 3.880 %
The ECB is in good position to raise. Will they.?
Euribor 1 week: 2.88
Euribor 1 month: 3.03
Euribor 3 month: 3.28
Euribor 6 month: 3.637
Euribor 1 year: 3.865
Euribor and Ester hasn’t had the same AUD and RBA effect from OCR and Bank Bills. Nothing screams raise. The only positive is Euribor trades above Ester but not to the degree where it says the ECB raise is guaranteed.
With one day remaining to Ester and Euribor rates to determine if we can say absolutely the ECB raises, one last check must be determined but its not likely Euribor will move to any degree. Interest rates trade today as dead as the currency price. Interest rates don’t trade in wide ranges anymore, nor does the currency or any market price.