GBP/USD Vs DXY

GBP/USD for the 7 hour trade remained below 1.2618. Automatic is known shorts apply but we also have day trades where GBP/USD 64 pips applies as an equal chance to rise or fall by 64. A more sophisticated view to understand and prove what equal chance means or 50 / 50 to longs and shorts is to apply Kurtosis.

The price path above 1.2618 factors Kurtosis at 1.68 and 1.54 to downside prices. On a scale of 0.0 to 3.0, the point at 1.5 is dead center. Equal chance is now mathematically perfect. But all price levels from bottom to top factors 2.06. Shorts reign under 2.06 as 2.06 is top heavy against 3.0.

When I say much has changed with 2016 interest rate changes, the changes were dramatic. Before 2016, Kurtosis truly applied to upside and downside prices so trade decisions were automatically known immediately.

To use Kurtosis correctly, the trade levels must be perfect or the readings will reveal wrong answers and trades will lose money.

Much easier and less time consuming is to trade GBP/USD Vs DXY.

Bottom and Upper targets: The beauty of a rare break above upper target or below Bottom is free money to trades as the price must by Mathematical certainty trade back to and below upper target and back to and above bottoms.

GBP/USD today pulled off a nasty move by break below 1.2554 at day trade end at 9.30 am and 10:00 am. But view DXY tops and the break is explained as DXY traded to tops.

GBP/USD 64

Long Short Line 1.2618

Most Important 1.2570 and 1.2609 Vs 1.2626, 1.2634, 1.2642, 1.2650, 1.2667, 1.2674, 1.2682

Bottom 1.2554 achieves by 1.2570 and 1.2586

Upper Target 1.2682

Continuation Fail 1.2650

DXY

Long short line 101.67

Most Important 101.28 and 101.60 Vs 101.73, 101.79, 101.85, 101.92, 102.05, 102.11, 102.18

Bottom 101.16 achieves by 101.28 and 101.41.

Upper target 102.18

Continuation fail 101.92.

GBP/USD Vs DXY

At the 9:30 point, DXY broke above 101.92 and traded to tops at 102.15 while GBP/USD broke bottom at 1.2554 at the 9:30 hour and traded to 1.2507.

At 10:00 am EST, the ECB inserts its own price and this price from 10 am dominates and a new trade must factor. Today’s GBP/USD at 10:00 am is 1.2613 and longs above. The trade is good for 1 hour then comes BOE at 11:00 am, Canada at 12 noon, and Fed at 12:30.

See why get out by 9 and 10:00 am as profits should ‘ve been earned already.

Brian Twomey

FX Next Week: EUR, GBP, USD/JPY, JPY Cross Pairs

GBP/USD yesterday traded to 1.2679 highs and 54 pips to the 1.2733 target. GBP/USD yesterday traded 79 pips and the vast majority traded for the CPI event. If ever irrelevance existed in markets, yesterday’s CPI was front and center as GBP/USD would’ve traded 70 ish pips regardless to CPI. Today’s BOE is just as irrelevant as CPI yesterday as GBP/USD trades another 70 ish pip day.

Monetary Policy and any central bank position is found inside the money supply vs interest rate relationship. Inside this relationship is found GDP and Inflation.

The advantage today is the same as yesterday for GBP/USD. GBP/USD yesterday was oversold at 1.2601 and longs were automatic. GBP/USD bottoms today in the vicinity of 1.2554 and 1.2570. Longs are the only way for GBP/USD to travel. The 1.2733 target is not expected to hit today.

Our trades are pre factored for multiple longs and shorts per currency and per financial instrument so BOE is much more irrelevant than CPI.

EUR/NZD achieved targets at 1.7296 and 1.7273 from 1.8000’s. The EUR/NZD trade is complete. GBP/NZD target at 1.9733 and 1.9680 traded to lows at 1.9789 and 56 pips to target from highs at 2.0300’s.

USD/JPY from Sunday: targets 133.65. USD/JPY traded to 133.88. Highs achieved 135.46. The USD/JPY strategy remains short only to target 128.27 and 122.00 longer term on a break of 126.00. Short strategies contain another 500 pips.

EUR/AUD traded to 1.6134 lows. EUR/AUD began the week at 1.6300’s. Watch for the EUR/AUD break below 1.6116 then first target at 1.6043 and much lower to 1.5900’s and 1.5800’s. EUR/AUD 11 trade days ago, reached 1.6785. Shorts from 1.6700’s runs +600 pips.

And waiting on GBP/AUD to break 1.8553. GBP/AUD correlations are running on all cylinders to match wide range currencies.

GBP/AUD Vs EUR/AUD +98%, GBP/AUD Vs EUR/NZD +89%, GBP/AUD Vs GBP/NZD +97%, GBP/AUD Vs GBP/USD +97%. GBP/AUD Vs AUD/USD -21%.

EUR/USD same old weekly story to relevant trade levels: 1.0834, 1.0958, 1.1137. Above 1.1137, EUR/USD hits a steel wall at 1.1193 and 1.1199. Informed weeks ago to EUR/USD impending dead range movements.

EUR/USD is also running on all cylinders to Correlations to EUR cross pairs. EUR/USD Vs EUR/CAD +99%, EUR/USD Vs EUR/NZD +96%, EUR/USD Vs EUR/AUD +97%, EUR/USD Vs EUR/JPY +87%.

EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY correlations to EUR/USD and GBP/USD are holding downside progress. Once EUR/JPY breaks 146.08 and GBP/JPY 166.50 then both will gain speed to downside progress and targets.

GBP/USD also contains the same weekly level story as 1.2348, 1.2602 and 1.2863. Upon GBP/USD’s target completion at 1.2733, the next big line is located at 1.2753. Once 1.2733 achieves destination then short quickly for extra pips.

Overall currency markets entered into tiny range markets. Next week will trade as this week and 2 weeks ago.

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD

How about 1.2618 is the same as yesterday. Extremely rare and the same exact trade.

Long Short Line 1.2618

Most Important 1.2570 and 1.2609 Vs 1.2626, 1.2634, 1.2642, 1.2650, 1.2667, 1.2674, 1.2682

Bottom 1.2554 achieves by 1.2570 and 1.2586

Upper Target 1.2682

Continuation Fail 1.2650

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD Day Trade

GBP/USD today will trade 64 pips or 128 total, same as yesterday. On most important levels, factor 9 and 48 pips as opposed to yesterday at 7 and 55 pips. This trade information was known yesterday at 4:00 pm EST.

The 24 hour trade has been running since yesterday. Today’s focus is the 7 1/2 hour trade and runs from 2:30 am EST to 10:00 am EST. Trades end at 10:00 am as nothing exists to trade. Option expiries hit at 10:am. This stops price movements rather than starts movements.

Just as CPI was irrelevant yesterday, BOE is just as irrelevant to GBP/USD. today. GBP/USD will trade at least 64 pips and maybe a few extra pips but its mandatory to trade at least 64.

The trade as all trades are known long in advance so the trader only job is click. click, profit and exit. Then re factor the next trade.

GBP/USD trade will post in about 20 minutes.

Brian Twomey