The RBNZ releases exchange rate Fixes at 3 pm NZD time or 10 PM EST. Bank Bill mid rates are released at 11:10 NZD time or 6 PM EST. The RBNZ releases interest rates before exchange rates. This allows the ability to factor intertest rates first to apply to exchange rates. All central banks release interest rates before exchange rates. The interest rates controls the exchange rates through the many Fixes throughout the 24 hour trade period. This means tops, bottoms, support and resistance levels are known in advance. Every trade at every minute of everyday is known.
Interest rates correlate 100% to exchange rates. Its impossible to not correlate 100% to exchange rates. Interest rates are most important to trades, support and resistance levels and profits in the spot market. Money supplies are most important for Futures contracts. Both money supplies and interest rates together are important for a monetary policy picture.
Europe over the past 10 years had a far lower money supply then the FED. The goal was increase money supplies to match the Fed. How? By lowering interest rates to expand the money supply. Restrict the money supply means raise interest rates.
Interest rates and money supplies correlate negative 100%. Its impossible not to correlate negative 100%.
AUD and RBA are most important to begin the trade day at 3 am EST to Sydney 5 pm on release of exchange rates. OCR and bank bills are released at 9 am Sydney or 7 pm EST. AUD trades are known in advance.
Difference between the RBA and RBNZ is OCR moves in New Zealand while RBA remains the same ever4yday.
Interest rates already informed long ago, AUD and NZD would trade dead ranges. No distance.
Cash rate (%pa) | Bank bill yields (%pa) | Secondary market government bond yields (%pa) | Swap rate spread close (bps) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Official Cash Rate (OCR) | Overnight interbank cash rate | 30 days | 60 days | 90 days | 1 year1 | 2 year1 | 5 year | 10 year | 2-10s2 |
| 04 May 2023 | 5.25 | – | 5.47 | 5.54 | 5.60 | 5.22 | 4.67 | 4.04 | 4.06 | -91 |
| 05 May 2023 | 5.25 | – | 5.49 | 5.55 | 5.62 | 5.22 | 4.63 | 4.02 | 4.10 | -87 |
| 08 May 2023 | 5.25 | – | 5.49 | 5.55 | 5.62 | 5.22 | 4.72 | 4.10 | 4.14 | -88 |
| 09 May 2023 | 5.25 | – | 5.50 | 5.56 | 5.62 | 5.25 | 4.77 | 4.15 | 4.20 | -83 |
| 10 May 2023 | 5.25 | – | 5.51 | 5.57 | 5.62 | 5.25 | 4.70 | 4.10 | 4.17 | -81 |
| 11 May 2023 | 5.25 | – | 5.50 | 5.56 | 5.61 | 5.23 | 4.63 | 4.05 | 4.12 | -83 |
| 12 May 2023 | 5.25 | – | 5.51 | 5.56 | 5.60 | 5.23 | 4.60 | 4.01 | 4.08 | -76 |
| 15 May 2023 | 5.25 | – | 5.51 | 5.55 | 5.58 | 5.19 | 4.54 | 3.96 | 4.05 | -78 |
| 16 May 2023 | 5.25 | – | 5.55 | 5.59 | 5.64 | 5.25 | 4.63 | 4.05 | 4.12 | -82 |
| 17 May 2023 | 5.25 | – | 5.54 | 5.59 | 5.65 | 5.25 | 4.67 | 4.08 | 4.16 | |
Actual RBA interest rates are offered by excel sheets and impossible to post. Bank Bills are offered but bank bills are not perfect to AUD trades as much as daily RBA interest rates.
BBSW 10 day history
| DATE | 1 MONTH | 2 MONTH | 3 MONTH | 4 MONTH | 5 MONTH | 6 MONTH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 MAY | 3.8188 | 3.8596 | 3.9122 | 3.9890 | 4.0300 | 4.0900 |
| 14 MAY | 3.8199 | 3.8522 | 3.8959 | 3.9529 | 4.0000 | 4.0413 |
| 11 MAY | 3.8100 | 3.8400 | 3.8850 | 3.9342 | 3.9800 | 4.0200 |
| 10 MAY | 3.8087 | 3.8400 | 3.8743 | 3.9200 | 3.9777 | 4.0117 |
| 09 MAY | 3.8051 | 3.8449 | 3.8774 | 3.9334 | 3.9783 | 4.0265 |
| 08 MAY | 3.8207 | 3.8545 | 3.8759 | 3.9336 | 3.9783 | 4.0237 |
| 07 MAY | 3.8249 | 3.8500 | 3.8761 | 3.9305 | 3.9800 | 4.0200 |
| 04 MAY | 3.8150 | 3.8400 | 3.8715 | 3.9018 | 3.9450 | 3.9918 |
| 03 MAY | 3.8200 | 3.8433 | 3.8720 | 3.9246 | 3.9700 | 4.0117 |
| 02 MAY | 3.8385 | 3.8450 | 3.8740 | 3.9400 | 3.9850 | 4.0456 |
Brian Twomey
BRIAN TWOMEY ON TRADING 