FX Weekly: GBP/USD Day Trade, GBP/JPY, EUR, GBP, JPY

The GBP/NZD target at 1.9733 and reported over last months achieved lows Friday at 1.9767. The trade duration from 2.0392 highs was 3 weeks. The leader currency and early warning to GBP/NZD’s fall was EUR/NZD as EUR/NZD completed its target at 1.7200’s 2 weeks ago from 1.8000 highs. As GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD accomplished targets, both are expected to join the rank and file of currencies trading in ranges.

GBP/USD over the past 56 trade days, traveled 859 pips, From a day trade perspective, here’s the pips and percentages.

GBP/USD for 15 of 56 trade days had 100 pips or above trade days or 26.10%. GBP/USD traded 41 days of 56 below 100 pips or 73.21%. GBP/USD 1 day traded 204 pips.

GBP/USD at 70 pip trade days = 10 of 56 or 17.86%. Below 70 pip trade days = 16 of 56 or 28.57%. GBP/USD at 60 pips and below = 10 of 56 or 17.86%.

GBP/USD below 70 and 60 pip trade days = 26 of 56 or 46.43%. GBP/USD 70 pip to 100 trade days = 25 of 56 or 14%.

GBP/USD in the past 56 trade days ranged from 1.1820 to 1.2679 or 859 pips. Take 859 divide 56 = 15.33. Speculation for 15.33 = Minimum pips that must trade. GBP/USD traded the vast majority of 859 pips from 15.33 to 70. A trade month factors at about 20 days, total 56 trade days is just short of 3 months.

GBP/JPY trades 170.37 to 172.24 – 174.83 at the 31, 32 and 33 year monthly averages. GBP/JPY’s big break for lower is located at 167.42. At 167.42 is located the 24 year monthly average and an easy break to accomplish.

GBP/JPY lower targets are located at averages about every 100 pips from 172.24 to 165.27. Once 165.27 breaks then GBP/JPY accelerates lower.

Conceivably, GBP/JPY from 40 year monthly averages or 480 data points could trade much higher to 190.00’s however averages from 148.00’s to 155.00’s are massively overbought to the 172.00 price and GBP/JPY’s location at the 33 year monthly average automatically informs GBP/JPY is miles to high.

The refinement to the long term model is to no longer view monthly averages and enter masses of data to find targets as the model condenses monthly averages into very few numbers to arrive at the same answer in less than 30 minutes. The model applies to 476 currency pairs.

GBP/JPY targets 165.44, 161.03, 160.23 and 159.18. GBP/JPY’s big break for lower is located at 158.75 at the 17 year monthly average. GBP/JPY’s overbought average at 158.75 has easy ability to break and GBP/JPY to trade much lower over time.

DXY 99.00’s at the 50 year monthly average, GBP/JPY 172.00’s at the 33 year monthly average informs USD/JPY and EUR/JPY trades at the upper monthly average Richter scale and non normal to currency markets.

Normal currency and market prices trades from the 1 to 10 year monthly averages. This is exactly where market prices are heading to achieve normality again.

The Week

EUR/USD big breaks are located at 1.0799, 1.0947, 1.1130 and 1.1300’s. Above 1.0947 targets 1.1006 and 1.1066. EUR/USD averages are dropping and not a good development for longs. EUR/USD however is trading far to close to DXY and for this reason alone, we are long and remain long over many weeks to come. A EUR drop below 1.0799 is a long opportunity.

GBP/USD big breaks are found at 1.2348, 1.2597 and 1.2858. GBP/USD averages are also dropping however any price in the vicinity of 1.2348 is a long opportunity.

Dropping averages are the result to overbought DXY. As DXY drops, EUR/USD and GBP/USD averages will again rise along with EUR/USD and GBP/USD prices.

USD/JPY targets easily 136.71 and the required break for lower is located at 135.62. The minimal target is 128.00’s. If as I suspect, USD/JPY trades at upper reaches to monthly averages then the 128.00 target is a breeze to achieve. Currently, USD/JPY must trade to 128.00’s as it doesn’t have any choice except to trade minimally at 128.00’s. Longer term target 122.00’s and 121.00’s.

As GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD achieved long term targets, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD are the only currency pairs remaining. EUR/AUD for lower must break 1.6116 and a short only strategy. GBP/AUD as our sleeper currency trades overbought above vital 1.8426.

Currency markets switched from trends to current ranges. This means weekly trades adjusts to range trades as 2 longs and 2 shorts per currency and per financial instrument to continuously trade and profit throughout the week.

NZD/USD trades overbought to oversold AUD/USD. No hurry to trade both however long AUD/USD is the best strategy. Overbought CAD/JPY trades in contention to overbought USD/CAD. No question to short CAD/JPY.

The 6 best currencies to trade and profit are EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD.


USD/EM currently contains many more miles of downside than long EUR/EM.

USD/CZK trades between 21.9479 to 22.0712. USD/CZK targets the break at 21.9479 then 21.8246.
USD/PLN trades 4.2363 to 4.1462. Short 4.2363 to target 4.1462.

USD/CNY trades massive overbought from 7.0076 and targets easily 6.9759
USD/DKK below 6.8997 targets 6.8020

USD/HUF targets 338.04 from 347.45
USD/MYR massive overbought at 4.5385 targets easily 4.4994.

SGD/MYR overbought from 3.3751 and targets 3.3632.

SGD as Sing Matches to MYR as Ring = the currency Sing/ Ring.

Brian Twomey


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s