RBNZ Interest Rates; Raise or no Raise

Cash rate (%pa)
Bank bill yields (%pa)Secondary market government bond yields (%pa)Swap rate spread close (bps)
DateOfficial Cash Rate (OCR)Overnight interbank cash rate30 days60 days90 days1 year12 year15 year10 year2-10s2
09 May 20235.255.505.565.625.254.774.154.20-83
10 May 20235.255.515.575.625.254.704.104.17-81
11 May 20235.255.505.565.615.234.634.054.12-83
12 May 20235.255.515.565.605.234.604.014.08-76
15 May 20235.255.515.555.585.194.543.964.05-78
16 May 20235.255.555.595.645.254.634.054.12-82
17 May 20235.255.545.595.655.254.674.084.16-89
18 May 20235.255.575.635.705.344.784.194.26-96
19 May 20235.255.635.725.795.525.044.414.41-105
22 May 20235.255.685.775.825.575.084.434.42

[1] Where there is no suitable benchmark bond, none is reported. See series description for details.[2] The spread between the 2 and 10 year swap rate is presented in basis points to better align with market conventions.

See the 30, 60 and 90 day rates move 5 points. The 30 and 60 day rates qualify for raise. The 1 year rate qualifies.

Brian Twomey


Overbought GBP/JPY at the 33 year monthly average is the same story from the perspective of EM/JPY as all EM/ JPY currencies trade at massive overbought levels. Take a pick, throw a dart and short.
Overbought begins at BGN/JPY, BRL/JPY, CNY/JPY, DKK/JPY, INR/JPY, ISK/JPY, KRW/JPY, MXN/JPY, MYR/JPY, PHP/JPY, PLN/JPY, SGD/JPY, THB/JPY. All EM/JPY are consistent to overbought USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY.

Overbought DXY and USD is compatible to severely overbought to USD/CNY, USD/MYR, USD/RON, USD/TRY. The extraordinary currency is USD/TRY as light years of distance exist to targets at 18.8710 and 16.2304 from 19.000’s. USD/BRL contains a short only strategy in accordance with USD however USD/BRL overbought Vs oversold within its price path are fighting against each other.

USD/CZK is a bright and shiny currency pair however oversold USD/CZK is also fighting against the USD and DXY overbought trend. What accounts for USD/CZK is the massive trade ranges available. USD/CZK has every ability to trade 3 and 4,000 pips and this range wouldn’t dent USD/CZK’s price. USD/CZK today is what USD/CNY was years ago to massive trade ranges.

Massive overbought to USD/CNY, USD/MYR, USD/RON and USD/TRY means not only extreme overbought but all trade at uppermost tops. All are easy trades.

USD/CNY first vital break is located at 6.9466 then long term targets align as 6.8901, 6.8373, 6.8006 and caution at 6.7967.

USD/MYR on a break of 4.4725 targets 4.4415 and 4.3798 and caution at 4.3503. Holding USD/MYR from trading lower is 4.3546.

USD/RON requires a break at 4.5735 to target 4.5287 and 4.5129.

USD/CZK below 21.9476 and 22.0182 targets 21.5616.

USD/TRY targets not just 18.8710 and 16.2304 but remaining targets are located at 14.3986 and 13.0629. The weekly range is located from 19.9401 to 19.7277. Shorts for USD/TRY exists for months to come. USD/TRY will follow the USD trend miles lower.

USD/BRL below 5.0435 and 5.0487 targets 4.9531, 4.9520, 4.9037. Weekly range for longs and short: 5.0251 to 4.9561. Not much thrills to USD/BRL as overbought and oversold problems fight against each other however short only remains the strategy. The distant average below is located at 4.7786.

Brian Twomey