Trades: NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD

Both EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD are the same currencies. NZD/USD is the opposite. If NZD/USD goes short then EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD go long. If NZD/USD goes long then EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD goes short. Multiple trades now exist for RBNZ. Plus multiple trades exist per currency pair.

NZD/USD

Long above 0.6267 to target 0.6311. Levels: 0.6275, 0.6284, 0.6292, 0.6301, 0.6309, 0.6318.

Short 0.6311 to target 0.6301

Short below 0.6267 to target 0.6223. Levels: 0.6259, 0.6241, 0.6223, 0.6215

Long 0.6223 to target 0.6233

Target to Target: 0.6311 and 0.6223

EUR/NZD
Long above 1.7219 to target 1.7288. Levels: 1.7232, 1.7246, 1.7259, 1.7273, 1.7286, 1.7300
Short 1.7288 to target 1.7273
Short below 1.7219 to target 1.7149. Levels: 1.7206, 1.7192, 1.7179, 1.7165, 1.7152, 1.7138
Long 1.7149 to target 1.7165
Target to Target: 1.7288 and 1.7149

GBP/NZD

Long above 1.9812 to target 1.9899. Levels: 1.9829, 1.9846, 1.9863, 1.9880, 1.9897

Short 1.9899 to target 1.9880

Short below 1.9812 to target 1.9724. Levels: 1.9795, 1.9778, 1.9761, 1.9744, 1.9727, 1.9710

Long 1.9724 to target 1.9744

Target to Target: 1.9899 and 1.9724

Brian Twomey

RBNZ Interest Rates for May 2023 Meeting


Cash rate (%pa)
Bank bill yields (%pa)Secondary market government bond yields (%pa)Swap rate spread close (bps)
DateOfficial Cash Rate (OCR)Overnight interbank cash rate30 days60 days90 days1 year12 year15 year10 year2-10s2
10 May 20235.255.515.575.625.254.704.104.17-81
11 May 20235.255.505.565.615.234.634.054.12-83
12 May 20235.255.515.565.605.234.604.014.08-76
15 May 20235.255.515.555.585.194.543.964.05-78
16 May 20235.255.555.595.645.254.634.054.12-82
17 May 20235.255.545.595.655.254.674.084.16-89
18 May 20235.255.575.635.705.344.784.194.26-96
19 May 20235.255.635.725.795.525.044.414.41-105
22 May 20235.255.685.775.825.575.084.434.42-100
23 May 20235.255.675.755.835.575.034.404.40

[1] Where there is no suitable benchmark bond, none is reported. See series description for details.[2] The spread between the 2 and 10 year swap rate is presented in basis points to better align with market conventions.

OCR at 5.25 matches the FED at 5.25. The RBNZ interest rates historically were priced far above Fed Rates. The 5, 4 and 3 day higher rates qualifies to RBNZ raise. How far back was this seen. Many, days is the answer. Rare day to disappoint with no raise under the 5 day rule scenario. Only 2 options for RBNZ: raise or on hold. OCR at 5.25 vs Inflation 6.7.

I will post NZD trades this evening long before RBNZ. What will all see. NZD/USD minimum 32 and Max at 62. Maybe in 1 direction.

Brian Twomey