Weekly Trades USD/JPY and Cross Pairs

One time shot to earn 886 weekly pips. For trades contact brian@btwomey.com

The JPY pairs to trade in order for maximum trade pips are as follows: GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, USD/JPY, CHF/JPY and CAD/JPY.

Following are 7 weekly trades, 7 entries, 7 targets. Brief trade methodologies are offered as well as longer term targets for traders interested in longer term hold periods. As usual no charts, graphs nor stops needed and no reference to the latest market talk which serves no purpose to price trading except to talk.

USD/JPY offers practically nothing to all JPY cross pairs because on its own, it lacks range. Absolute bottom is located at 106.02, up 83 pips from last July at 105.19.

The weekly break point for higher /lower is located at 109.01, above targets 109.93 then 110.10. Massive resistance is located at 110.28, 110.40 and 110.85.

Long 107.40 and 107.17 to target 108.73. USD/JPY must cross higher 108.09 and 108.45. Longer term target 110.10. Trade 107.40 to 108.73 contains 135 pips.

GBP/JPY. Long 135.42 and 135.12 if seen to target 137.77. Must cross 135.72 and 136.74. This trade contains 235 pips yet long for 235 pips is minuscule in relation to the 147.00 longer term target. Brexit severely holds GBP/JPY and all GBP pairs from much higher levels.

EUR/JPY. January Flash Crash lows, 118.00’s, Closed 121.58, Break Point 122.91. Target 124.88, Massive Brick Walls 125.72 and many 126.00’s. Won’t break anytime soon. Long only strategy to 124, deeply oversold.

Long 121.10 to target 122.50. Must cross to target 121.71 and 122.10. Longer term target above 122.91 is located at 124.88.

EUR/JPY must and will trade to 124.88.This trade contains 140 pips.

AUD/JPY. Long 75.24 and 74.94 to target 76.06. Must cross to target 75.24 and 75.80. Above 76.37 targets 77.49. Longer term target 81.27. This trade contains 82 pips.

NZD/JPY. Long 71.38 and 71.13 if seen to target 72.39. Must cross 71.64 and 72.14. Long above 72.64 to target 73.63. Must cross 73.13. This trade contains 101 pips.

CHF/JPY. Absolute bottom is located at 106.03.

Long 109.35 and 109.12 to target 109.61. Must cross to target 109.35 and 109.57. Above 109.80 targets 110.24. This trade contains 40 pips from 109.12.

CAD/JPY. Long 81.81 to target 82.46. Must cross 82.04 and 82.26. Long above 82.49 to target 83.37. Must cross 82.93 and 83.15. Longer term target 85.00’s. This trade contains 65 and 88 pips.

Overall trade result is 886 pips.

 

Brian Twomey

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FX Trade Results Feb 22 -July 12

Actual profit Pips = 24,832

Actual Pip Profit weekly Average 1251

We profit on Average 1251 pips per week on 12 currency pairs. We maintain profit at least 50% of all traded pips on 12 currency pairs. See 2 weeks ago in weekly post for Math based on 50% Traded pips.

Weekly Pip Totals 19 Weeks

942

869

911

1450

1203

1187

2

1162

126

1979

794

957

1033

1127

1700

1962

1979

1800

2592 =1251

 

Brian Twomey

FX Trade Results June 8 -12

 Total 942 Pips, 11 Trades, 12 Currency Pairs.

EURAUD and NZDJPY trades never triggered.

GBPJPY offered 2 trades same entries, rare day.

GBP Pairs still deeply contained, obviously by Targets.

EURNZD triggered today.

Call for trades if interested.

Entries and Targets Below 

GBPJPY 135.48 and 135.10, Target 138.19 Actual 135.40 -136.04, +64 pips. 135.08, to 136.01 +93 pips. Total 157 pips

GBPCHF 1.2382, 1.2331, Target 1.2590, Actual 1.2362 -1.2412, +50 pips.

GBPCAD 1.6341, 1.6306, Target 1.6659, Actual 1.6328 -1.6425, +97 pips

USDCAD 1.3035, 1.3009, Target 1.3140, Actual 1.3050 -1.3143, +90 Pips

EURUSD 1.1216, 1.1201, Target 1.1276, Actual 1.1192 -1.1284 on Instruction +75 pips

GBPUSD 1.2492, 1.2461, Target 1.2708, Actual 1.2440 -1.2570, +130 pips

CADJPY 83.22, 83.45, Target 82.51, Actual 83.19 -82.63 +56 pips.

GBPAUD 1.7925, 1.7897, Target 1.8170, Actual 1.7899 -1.8042 +143 pips

EURAUD 1.6010, 1.5983, target 1.6090 Not triggered

NZDJPY 70.96, 70.68, Target 72.18, Not triggered.

GBPNZD 1.8843, 1.8804, Target 1.9079, Actual 1.8810 -1.8954, +144 pips

EURNZD 1.6848, 1.6799, Target 1.6897, Actual 1.6838 Triggered today, ongoing.

   Brian Twomey, Contact for trades if interested

GBP/USD, Cross Pairs and Brexit

On year 3 year of the Brexit anniversary asks the question how devastating was the GBP fall. The analytical answer must view in the context of the 2500 pip parameter for the most widely traded exchange rate combinations of EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY from 2000 -2008 and 2008 – 2015.

A 2500 pip move in any direction was met not only by a brick wall of resistance but a large correction was the only alternative for a long period of time until or unless the parameter walls moved to allow a further continuation past the 2500 inflection point. GBP/USD however due to its wider ranges is afforded nearly a 3000 pip parameter yet 2500 generally serves its purpose to comply with corresponding non GBP currency pairs.

GBP/USD fell from 1.5000’s -1.1800’s or roughly a 3200 pip move and now sits at 1.2500’s. The 66 year historical context to 1.2500’s dating to 1953 is 1.2500 is a non existent price and never before seen except for the August 1984 -May 1985 Plaza Accords when the G5 nations engineered USD higher. GBP/USD traded then 1.04 lows to 1.1900 highs. Subtract the Plaza Accords equation then 1.2500’s now trades in uncharted territory.

From the 2008 crash highs at 1.8891 to 1.2513 lows, the 11 year mid point is located at 1.5702. The 66 year mid point from 2.8151 -1.0438 lows is located at 1.9294. From the 1972 free float from 2.6189 -1.2513 lows, the mid point is located at 1.9351.

The BOE’s 21 year governing interest rate, Sonia, traded 4.9970 at the 2008 crash and dropped to 0.4099 April 2009 and its 11 year mid point is located at 2.70. From April 2009 -June 2016, Sonia monthly averages reported a paltry range from 0.4099 – 0.5486 for a 0.4792 mid point. Upon the Brexit announcement, Sonia dropped from 0.4598 highs -0.2106 lows for a 0.3352 mid point. Sonia now trades since September 2018 at 0.70 and hardly moves from its 0.70 base and 0.70 is a long way from the 21 year mid point at 3.88.

How devastating was Brexit is explained by GBP/USD, Sonia and headline interest rates trade at historic lows never before seen in the UK’s rich and glorious history.

Forecasts

GBP/USD to reach a fraction of normalization must trade to a minimum of 1.2900’s against a longer term target at 1.3600’s. The governing average today is located at 1.4700’s and 1.5200’s 1 year ago. Currently 1.2500’s is deeply oversold. We’re looking at absolute bottoms at the 1.2300 -1.2400 vicinity.

GBP/AUD trades below its vital break point average at 1.8500’s but at 1.7900’s faces its range low point at 1.7400’s. GBP/AUD is a range currency pair for the most part but afforded wide latitude within its ranges and once traded 1976 lows at 1.2700’s but lived the majority of its 66 year history at 2.000;s.

GBP/JPY must trade to its minimum normalization point at 142.00’s and 143.00’s against its long term target at 147.00’s. Historical 66 year first ever lows were seen in 2011 -2012 from 117.00’s -126.00’s.

GBP/NZD must trade to ts minimum normalization point at 1.9300’s. GBP/NZD at 1.8800’s is the result of the 1300 pip drop from 2.0100’s. At 1.9300’s is fairly respectable for GBP/NZD.

GBP/CAD must trade to 1.7100’s just to reach a respectable normalization. GBP/CAD’s 66 year history traded 2011 -2013 lows from 1.5200’s to 1.6400’s. At current 1.6300’s, GBP/CAD trade its post crash lows.

GBP/CHF must trade to 1.2800’s against a longer term target at 1.3200’s. At 1.2300’s, GBP/CHF trades in uncharted territory in relation to its 66 year history which began at 11.0000’s and 12.000’s. Only one time, Oct 2010, GBP/CHF closed at 1.2100’s. In 66 years, GBPCHF downtrend has been slow and steady and now trades at its lowest ever seen points. Brexit allowed a continuation to the downtrend.

 

Brian Twomey

FXTrade Results Feb 22 -July 5

Actual profit Pips = 23,890

Actual Pip profit Weekly Average =1268 Pips

We profit on Average 1268 pips per week on 12 currency pairs. We maintain profit at least 50% of all traded pips on 12 currency pairs. See last weekly post for Math based on 50% Traded pips.

Weekly Pips totals 18 weeks

869

911,

1450,

1203

1187

2

1162

126

1979

794

957

1033

1127

1700

1962

1979

1800

2592 = 1268

 

Brian Twomey    brian@btwomey.com

FX Trade Results July 1 -5th

+869 pips, 12 Currency Pairs, 12 Trades.

Currency pairs are seriously mis positioned.

EURNZD never triggered, GBPCHF lifted and fell not close to entry.

Monday and Tuesday GBPCAD and USDCAD barely earned gains.

GBPUSD from entry earned 15 pips, not counted in total. GBPJPY barely gained 41 Pips.

GBPUSD from 1.2900’s traveling down deep oversold road, quite dangerous situation.

Entry and targets below based on weekly instruction

EURAUD 1.6230, 1.6267, Target 1.6176 Actual 1.6258 -1.6176 +82 Pips. 1.6159, Target 1.6013 Actual 1.6159 =1.6024 #135 Pips

GBPNZD 1.8895 Target 1.9167, Actual 1.8837 -1.8962, +125 Pips

GBPAUD 1.8068, 1.8072, Target 1.8233, Actual 1.8043 -1.8157, +114

GBPCHF 1.2344, 1.2319 Target 1.2601 Actual 1.2405 -1.2497. Trade Not triggered

GBPJPY 136.67, 136.63, Target 138.66, Actual 136.74 -137.15 +41 pips.

GBPCAD 1.6598 1.6542, Target 1.6927 Actual 1.6551 -1.6609 +58 Pips Miserable situation.

USDCAD 1.3063, 1.3042, target 1.3247, Actual 1.3069 -1.3136 +67 Pips

GBPUSD 1.2648, 1.2622 Target 1.2712, Actual 1.2632 -1.2647. Not counted.

EURUSD 1.1389, 1.1411, Target 1.1308. Actual 1.1370 -1.1308, +62 Pips. 1.1303, Target 1.1260, Actual 1.1303 -1.1255, On instruction +43 Pips

EURNZD 1.6744, 1.6761, Target 1.6933, Not triggered.

CADJPY 82.96, 83.27, Target 82.34 Actual 82.89 -82.34 + 55 pips. 82.05, Target 81.08 not yet triggered.

NZDJPY 73.16, 73.49 target 72.83 Actual 72.92 -72.83 +9 Pips. 72.50, Target 71.72 Actual 72.50 -71.72, +78 pips and ongoing trade.

      Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and the ECB

Previous comments to ECB comatose was incredibly wrong because EURUSD and ECB context to create characteristically a permanent Neutral Currency was missed. Yet neutrality is performed daily through non move able interest rates.

I desperately desired to state in my article the ECB is more interested in EUR neutrality rather than its price, or new highs and lows but my article was sent to fxstreet. And we all know what fxstreet primitive collusion delusion is all about.

The EUR neutrality is permanent and won’t ever leave its Neutral created foundations. New highs and lows are seen only in the context of neutrality, EUR price position and where neutral position began is paramount to trade EUR and all EUR pairs.

Ex. 1.1411 was a new high but it ended a 5 day daily run. Daily prices today operate on a 5 day up and down scale as opposed to 14 and 17 days pre 2016 and ECB new interest rate scheme.

1.1411 contained no meaning as it occurred on the 5th up day. Smart ECB‘s 5 year plan since 2014. 1. Go negative Interest rates 2. 2016 Redesign interest rates 3. Maintain neutral but shorten trading Ranges.

The message was EUR lower for longer yet the ECB gave EUR its funeral and sent it to its proper resting place. To Trade EUR properly is imperative to understand how and why neutrality operates with all EUR pairs price context.

 

Brian Twomey

EURUSD Trends/Turns: 2013 -2015 and 2018 -2019

To forecast tops and bottoms, below is the methodology and it was employed to accurately call the EUR/USD top at 1.3900’s.

This post is a re creation of the 2013 – 2015 view to Peaks and troughs, tops and bottoms for daily, weekly and monthly charts. The difference today is the view was assessed from 6/29/18 to 6/28/19 for a 1 year inspection.

The character of the EUR on any chart since inception hasn’t changed as EUR/USD is traditionally and invented to trade as a highly neutral currency pair and rarely falls outside of its neutrality. Any deviation to neutrality always corrects to assure EUR trades neutral.

Neutrality for EUR/USD means an equal number of up and down days, weeks and months match almost perfectly. New highs and lows never assumes an automatic continuation on its price path. The question for traders must be how many peaks and valleys were involved in the price move to determine if a continuation or retrace will develop.

How many peaks and valleys may or may not mean the EUR trades within a few pips to its previous highs and lows. The EUR contains a distinct habit to bring this question to the brink.

The EUR/USD has radically changed from its 2013 -2015 trading days as 2013 -2015 afforded far wider ranges, trends and trade opportunities. The EUR/USD from 2018 to 2019 revealed daily and weekly trend / turns occurs much quicker due to depressed ranges and trends. Peaks and valleys were shortened by 1/2 in 2018 -2019 from its 2013 -2015 counterpart. Traders must be quick on the trigger to catch the move.

Daily 2013-2015 Vs 2018 -2019.

In 2013 -2015 for example, 71 down days total was recorded with 4 significant peaks. Down days turned every 17.75 days on average. A total of 74 up days saw 5 significant peaks with an average turn every 14.8 days.

If daily up days to down days are viewed, the EUR/USD trend/peaks turn every 16.1 days total.

In contrast, the 2018 -2019 EUR/USD daily up and down days are equally matched by 24 up days to 24 down days. The 3 daily Doji indecision chart candles appears for a reason.

2018 -2019

At 123 up days recorded 24 peaks for an up trend /turn every 5.12 weeks while 126 down days recorded 24 peaks for a trend /turn every 5.25 weeks. Up days Vs down days factored to a trend/turn every 5.18 days. Up to down days and trend/turn radically changed to shorter terms from its 2013 -2015 counterpart at 14 and 17 days by at least 3 times.

EUR/USD averages from 24 up days factors to 1.1500 and a 1.1489 Median. Interesting numbers as the current 5 year average is located at 1.1476. EUR/USD average for down days factors to 1.1312 and 1.1280 as a Median.

Weekly

2013 -2015 Vs 2018 -2019

From 2013 -2015, a significant up peak occurred every 4.5 weeks on average while a significant down peak occurred every 4.33 weeks on average. A significant weekly peak occurred for trend / turn in up vs down weeks every 4.4 weeks on average and fairly consistent with the 16.1 daily peak turn.

The 2013 -2015 Up data: Up weeks recorded: 4 weeks, 1 peak, 5 weeks, 1 peak, 5 weeks, 1 peak, 4 weeks, 1 peak. Notice the 5 / 4 relationship. A significant peak occurred every 4.5 weeks on average,

The 2013 -2015 down data: down weeks recorded: 8 weeks, 1 peak, 2 weeks, 1 peak, 3 weeks, 1 peak. A significant down peak occurred every 4.33 weeks on average.

2018 -2019

For 2018 -2019, in 27 up weeks recorded 11 peaks or trend / turn every 6.75 weeks. Up week ranges lasted an extra 2.25 weeks Vs its 2013 -2015 period.

In 24 down weeks recorded 10 peaks for a trend turn every 2.4 weeks. A trend /turn in up v Down weeks occurs every 4.57 weeks. Up Vs down week ranges extended by a negligent 0.17 weeks. Overall up vs down weeks trends /turns shortened by 1/2 vs its 2013 -2015 counterparts. The answer is revealed by up trends at 6.75 vs Down weeks at 2.4. This deviation is rarely seen.
Weekly EUR/USD factors an up average at 1.1501 and down average at 1.1229.

Monthly.

Up months factors as 4 up months and 3 peaks for an up trend/turn every 1.33 months while 6 down months at 3 peaks equates to 2.0. Up Vs down trend /turns every 1.66 months.

Monthly 2000 – 2015

From the Oct 2000 bottom at 0.8206 to present July / August 2015 period.

Data

Monthly up months with a significant peak recorded, 3 months, 1 peak, 3 months, 1 peak, 16 months, 1 peak, 5 months, 1 peak, 8 months, 1 peak, 3 months, 1 peak, 29 months, 1 peak, 13 months, 1 peak, 12 months, 1 peak, 2 months, 1 peak, 6 months, 1 peak.

Overall 98 months Vs 11 peaks to include the EUR trend from 2003 to 2006 factors to 8.90 up months.

Monthly down months recorded: 5 months, 1 peak, 4 months, 1 peak, 3 months, 1 peak, 3 months, 1 peak, 6 months, 1 peak, 3 months, 1 peak, 6 months, 1 peak, 7 months, 1 peak, 8 months, 1 peak, 5 months, 1 peak.
50 months vs 10 peaks factors as a trend /turn every 5 months. Overall up vs down trend /Turn every 6.95 months.

Current EUR/USD

The EUR/USD topped at 1.1341 from 1.1183 in 5 days then bolted from 1.1183 to 1.1411 highs in 5 days. If the past is prologue then the EUR/USD contains 5 down days ahead.

 

Brian Twomey

FXTrade Results Feb 22 -June 28

 

Actual Profit Pips = 23,021

Actual Pip Profit Average 1292

We profit on Average 1292 pips per week on 12 currency pairs. We maintain profit at least 50% of all traded pips on 12 currency pairs. Mathematically, SD on 17 weeks and 12 currency pairs = 650.40 and 1/2 of 1292 = 646.

Further, Signal/ Noise Ratio Vs Variation equates to 1.98 Vs 0.50. The Signal is perfect and high Vs its 50 % Variation. We are dead on track to report profit on 50% of all traded pips.

Weekly Pips Totals for 17 weeks

911

1450

1203

1187

2

1162

126

1979

794

957

1033

1127

1700

1962

1979

1800

2592 =1292 Pips Average

 

Brian Twomey

FX Results June 24-28

 911 pips 13 Trades, 12 Currency Pairs.

Perfect CADJPY Vs offset by Missed entry USDCAD. -29 Pips.

Was 1111 pips overall but missed entry GBPCAD.

Entry and targets below.

EURAUD 1.6423, 1.6442, Target 1.6202 Actual 1.6410 -1.6204 +206 Pips

USDCAD 1.3218, target 1.3343, Actual 1.3216 -1.3087, -129.

CADJPY 80.66, 80.46, Target 81.40. Actual 80.99 -81.40, +41 pips. 81.89, Target 83.10, Actual 81.89 -82.36 +67. pips

GBPUSD 1.2685, 1.2654, Target 1.2757, Actual 1.2662 -1.2723 +61 pips

EURUSD 1.1268, 1.1273, Target 1.1288, Actual 1.1406 -1.1344, +29 ongoing target. 1.1271, target 1.1237, not triggered.

GBPCAD 1.6822, 1.6776, Target 1.7012. Actual 1.6854 -1.6582 Minus 240.

GBPCHF 1.2432, 1.2388, Target 1.2610, Actual 1.2454 -1.2342, Trade just triggered.

GBPJPY 136.60, 136.25, target 138.34, Actual 135.82 -137.32, +107 Pips on instruction.

NZDJPY 70.44 70.24, Target 72.02 Actual 70.64 -72.02 138 pips. 72.42 Target 73.20 not triggered.

EURNZD 1.7269, 1.7310  Target 1.7063, Actual 1.7270 -1.7063 +207 pips.

GBPNZD 1.9384, 1.9428, target 1.9317, Actual 1.9344 -1.9317, +27 pips. 1.9296, Target 1.9117. Actual 1.9296 – 1.9117. +179 Pips Total 206 pips.

GBPAUD 1.8424, 1.8443, Target 1.8325. Actual 1.8386 -1.8325. +61 Pips. 1.8308, target 1.8190, Actual 1.8308 +118 pips total pips 179

                   Brian Twomey

FX 28 Break Point Context

NZDUSD overnight was only pair to break above its Point at 0.6627. Must break first as Vital signal Pair and to serve its rightful position in Currency markets.

NZD leads, never follows. Leads all other currency pairs.

EURUSD Broke 1st at 1.1272. Highly neutral, Traditional follower never leads. This time it did. Wrong position.

GBPUSD Touched 1.2778, then downtown, it traveled.

AUDUSD 0.6981, traded 0.6971 then down.

Strength of trend for all non USD pairs always means JPY cross pairs must follow as rightful position.

JPY cross pair rightful position to majors is attachment to travel together. Protects JPY viability since WW2, a service from the allies.

CHFJPY serves it rightful function as Signal Currency Pair to JPY crosses. Break Point 109.64, now trades 109.76. A Break below usually means JPY cross pairs remains dead and strength of trend for above pairs to trade above break points is weak.

CHFJPY above 109.64 then JPY cross pairs follow.

USDJPY and USDCHF all trade below Break points. CHFJPY , USDJPY and USDCHF can’t trade below

Misplaced, In English called Dangling Modifiers, EURAUD EURNZD and GBPNZD must trade lower especially for NZDUSD and AUDUSD to contain chance to break its point, sustain and travel higher.

 

Brian Twomey

FX Break Points, 28 Currency Pairs

EURUSD only USD V Non Pair Broke above Break Point 1.1272.

 

USDJPY 109.34, Trades below

USDCAD 1.3347, Trades below

GBPUSD 1.2780, Below

USDCHF 0.9973, Below

AUDUSD 0.6982, Below

NZDUSD 0.6624, Below

 

EURUSD strength of trend above 1.1272

EURJPY 123.26, below

EURCHF 1.1234, below

EURCAD 1.5032, Below

EURNZD 1.7024, Above

EURAUD 1.6152, Above  EUR = 3 above Vs 3 below

 

AUDUSD Problem is EURAUD 1.6152, trades above

AUDJPY 76.25, trades below

AUDCHF 0.6956, Below

#AUDCAD 0.9308, Below

AUDNZD 1.0540, Trades 1.0540 AUD = 4 below and AUD/NZD on the Edge

 

NZDUSD 0.6624 Problem, is EURNZD 1.7024, Above,

GBPNZD 1.9291 Above

NZDJPY 72.34, Below

NZDCHF 0.6601, Below

NZDCAD 0.8832, Below

NZD/EUR 0.5875, Below

NZD/GBP 0.5183 On the Edge to break  NZD =5 Pairs Trade beloe

 

GBPUSD 1.2780, Below

GBPJPY 139.76, Below

GBPCHF 1.2733, Below

GPCAD 1.7036, Below

GBPNZD 1.9291 Above

GBPAUD 1.8323, Above GBP = 4 pairs below and 2 Above GBP/AID on the edge of Break

 

USDCAD 1.3347 Below

CADJPY 81.90 Below

CADCHF 0.7473, Below CAD = 3 below but CADCHF on edge of Break

CAD/ZAR 10.83 On the edge of Break

 

CHFJPY 109.63 Trades Above

 

6 Currency Pairs above: EURUSD EURNZD GBPNZD EURAUD GBPAUD and CHFJPY

Means 22 currency pairs below. Giant moves ahead due to severe mis positions

 

Brian Twomey

Boris the Schlosssssberg Strikes Again

 

See the weekly trade results. The good  is all these people read my stuff as nobody ever reported weekly trade results nor  to the depth as yours truly.  The bad:  20 + years in FX, graduate of Ivy League’s Columbia University, world famous lecturer and TV personality. The caliber of trade results just doesn’t match the credentials and it applies to his partner, the dumbest woman ever to trade FX, kathy lien.

Boris earned 200 pips this month, charges $175 or $145 with the discount.

Informed was the discount doesn’t work.

FX Trade Results Feb 22 -June 21

Actual Profit Pips = 22,110

Actual Pip Average =1315

We profit on Average 1315 pips per week on 12 currency pairs. We maintain profit at least 50% of all traded pips on 12 currency pairs. More Available Vs Actual is explained by Contingency Trades for trades at significant MA Break Points. Those Vital points may or may not break in any given week but we’re prepared.

Weekly Pip[ Totals

1450

1203

1187

2

1162

126

1979

794

957

1033

1127

1700

1962

1979

1800

2592 = 1315 Average

 

Brian Twomey Interested in Trades then contact

 

FX Trade Results June 17-21

 Total pip profit 1450 pips, 12 Currency pairs, 16 Trades.

Entries, Targets and Actual below.

pip count based on weekly instructions. Extra is bonus. My interest is methodology and Models rather than extra pips.

GBPUSD 1.2568, 1.2539, Target 1.2798. Actual 1.2508 -1.2725. +186 pips.

GBPJPY 136.52, 135.87, target 139.11, Actual 135.40 -137.17, +130 pips.

GBPCHF 1.2552, 1.2512, Target 1.2714, Actual 1.2489 -1.2586, +74 Pips.

NZDJPY 70.22, 70.04, Target 72.09, Actual 70.26 -71.09, +83 Pips.

EURAUD 1.6355, 1.6323, Target 1.6119, Actual 1.6386 -1.6275, +111 pips

EURNZD 1.7288, 1.7325, target 1.7043, Actual 1.7304 -1.7108, + 196 Pips

GBPNZD 1.9443, 1.9493, Target 1.8322, Actual 1.9389 -1.9322, +67 pips 1.9298, target 1.9201, Actual 1.9289 – 1.9201, +88.

GBPAUD 1.8380, 1.8424, target 1.8335, Actual 1.8407 – 1.8335, +72 pips 1.8291, Target 1.8202, +70 pips

USDCAD 1.3459, 1.3482, Target 1.3388, Actual 1.3432 -1.3388, +44 pips 1.3365, target 1.3294, Actual 1.3365 -1.3294, +71 pips

GBPCAD 1.6861, 1.6846, Target 1.7029, Actual 1.6757 -1.6881. +41 pips. Terrible trade.

CADJPY 80.33, Target 81.60, Actual 80.57 -81.86, +103 pips

EURUSD 1.1185, 1.1164, target 1.1248, Actual 1.1181 -1.1248, +67 pips. 1.1269, target 1.1332, Actual 1.1269 -1.1316, +47 pips Total Pips 114.

     Brian Twomey, Contact for trades if interested

FX Trade Results Feb 22 -June 14

 

The available part to the weekly was dropped as I became swamped to prepare for Brother Dale’s guest appearance.  What is known is Available usually doubles from Actual due to trade contingencies at significant break points.

Actual profit Pips = 20,669

Actual Pip Average = 1306

 

We profit on Average 1306 pips per week on 12 currency pairs. We maintain profit at least 50% of all traded pips on 12 currency pairs. More Available Vs Actual is explained by Contingency Trades for trades at significant MA Break Points. Those Vital points may or may not break in any given week but we’re prepared.

Weekly Pip Data

1203

1187

2

1162

126

1979

794

957

1033

1127

1700

1962

1979

1800

2592  = 1306 Average

 

Brian Twomey Interested in Trades, then contact

USD V Non USD Currency Pairs

Break Points GBPUSD 1.2794, GBPJPY 140.19, USDJPY 109.56,

All #Trade below, Incorrect positioning. 1 or 2 Pairs must trade above and 1 below.

Or 1 pair above and 2 below. Who wins, GBPUSD dropped 1000 pips from 1.3400’s, GBPJPY dropped 1200 from 147.00’s.

Same deal EURUSD 1.1270, EURJPY 123.49 and USDJPY 109.56. Same for all JPY cross pairs, Light years higher to go.

For the guy EURAUD long. AUDUSD Break Point 0.6990, EURUSD 1.1270, EURAUD 1.6125, Trades above and deeply overbought. Long is gambling, 7 come 11.

EURJPY Long 121.08 was written late last night on my site. Target 122.00’s. Why Long. Shorts Impossible.

For Trade service to take GBPJPY short today, More gambling and no conception to a financial #price. How do these people obtain their positions and status while commanding the multitudes down the path to ruin is beyond comprehension.

USDCAD Vs GBPUSD 1.3400’s Vs 1.2500’s, or 900 pips. How long can this whopper distance hold, not much.

 

Brian Twomey

Fed Funds, Rates, Averages and Correlations

Since the last Fed raise to 2.50, the daily trade able fed funds effective rate closed and traded at 2.38. From monthly averages  1 to 24 years, Fed Funds effective trades between 2.13 to 2.47. The wide distance between averages is explained by lower averages from the 4 year at 1.02 to the 22 year at 2.19 then 2.47 at the 24 year. Middle averages since Dec 15 raises moved and are moving extremely slow to center positions to cause a wide divide between shortest and longest term averages. The entire 27 year  average curve runs from 0.48 to 2.61 against a 1.54 mid point.

Middle averages overall are overbought yet shortest and longest term averages reside in good positions. A clear explanation why forecasts range from 1 cut, 2 cuts to zero  cuts but a further commentary to exactly what the data reveals.

If the Fed cuts once to 2.25 then Fed Funds effective would trade at the 1 year average at 2.13 as a cut in headline means 12 1/2 points lower must factor to assess the position of the daily trade able rate. Further, 2 cuts means the Fed Effective rate trades at 1.88 and directly at the 20 year average.

Current ECB rate at 0.63 Vs 2.38 reveals a 174 point distance, a cut to 2.26 slashes the distance to 162 points, CAD 1.74 V 2.38 distance is 64 points and closest proximity to the FED among all G10 nations. JPY 0.94 Vs 2.38 = 144 points, AUD 1.25 Vs 2.38 =113 points, NZD 1.50 Vs 2.38 = 88 points, GBP 0.70 vs 2.38 = 168 points and 212 points CHF from 0.26 to 2.38. Fed cuts to 2.26 compresses interest rate distances further.

Distance and interest rate compression as practiced since the 2008 crash means 21 currency pairs trade below 5 year averages while 8 currency pairs to include DXY trades above. The 8 currency pairs as follows share a commonality as all are considered USD pairs: EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, EUR/CAD and DYY. Slash interest rate distances automatically cuts price movements.

Always was my contention in past writings the FED lifted rates far to late, to fast  and at the 1.0 vicinity while post 2008 lows hit at 0.02 and 0.06 and a perfect time for liftoff if normalization was the serious policy move.

If the Fed cuts and the If question is why then I see a one and done without a need to move further, particularly when GDP averages remain extremely healthy to see 2.0’s from now to infinity.

Consider as well a cut means in positive correlation terms, lower 2 and 10 yields, S&P’s, DXY and negative to GDP and WTI. Understand WTI correlates to nothing, literally and is a lost price, floating without purpose or direction.

120 month data below per financial instrument.

FED Funds Vs DXY Correlates healthy 76%

Vital Fed Funds average = 0.98 Vs 92.44 for DXY yet the 5 year year is located at 94.72.

,Fed Funds vs 2 year Correlates 99%,

vital averages below 0.98 Vs 1.437 and 5 year at 1.347.

Fed Funds Vs 10 year Correlates 83%

Vital averages 0.98 Vs 2.382 and trades below the 5 year at 2.34

Fed funds Vs GDP Correlates minus 22%

Vital averages 0.98 Vs 2.20 GDP and 5 year average at 1.98

Fed Funds Vs WTI Correlates minus 57%

Vital averages 0.98 Vs 63.71 and 5 year average at 56.69.

Fed Funds Vs S%P’s Correlates 94%

Vital averages 0.98 vs 2300.348 and 5 year average at 2339.47.

The interesting aspect to GDP is AUD and NZD outperformed GDP in the United States every quarter since 1990 while the GBP and JPY under performed every quarter since 1990.

 

Brian Twomey

GDP and Correlations

GDP at last reported 3.1 skyrocketed over its 10 year average at 2.57 and now sits in ranges from 2.57 to 4.05. GDP below sits comfortably at 2.00 and its 5 year average at 1.98. Overall GDP averages from 1 to 3 year are slightly overbought but in total the averages are in great shape. This means GDP contains no problems for 2.5 and middle 2.0 ‘s from today to infinity.

As was the same scenario under Reagan in the 1980’s, tax cuts were directly responsible for GDP’s fast rise but Trump added extra benefits to slash Obummer’s regulatory burdens and trade wars forces US companies to operate again in the US. Trump’s plan in my estimation is to bring home the powerful manufacturing base so then to export and possibly reduce reliance on traditional service exports. The last positive trade balance in the US was 1975 then the 1960’s.

A Trump re election in 2020 and control of the House of Representatives means a cut to Personal Income taxes and an economy that skyrockets at 4 and 5% GDP to infinity.

Next points below 2.57, 2.49, 2.46, 2.32 and 2.29. Currently overbought from lower averages at 2.17, 2.21 and 2.29.

Off the charts at 3.1 may explain why GDP correlates Positively to WTI and barely to the 10 year yield while negative to DXY, 2 year, Fed Funds and the S& P’s. GDP is lost at 3.1 and needs a correction to then travel higher and to re correlate to its own financial instruments.

Interesting fact is AUD and NZD GDP out performed the US every quarter since March 1990 while the UK and Japan under performed every quarter since 1990.

Correlations 120 data points

GDP Vs 10 Year Yield

Correlations 10%, Vital Averages 2.20 Vs 2.38, GDP 5 year average 1.98 Vs 10 year at 5 year average 2.27. Max range for 10 year is 50 ish points but Max spread relationship is 16 points.

GDP Vs DXY

Correlation -73%, Vital points 2.29 Vs DXY 92.44 yet 5 year average 94.72.

GDP Vs 2 year Yield

Correlation -29%, Vital points 2.20 Vs 1.437 and 5 year at 1.347.

GDP Vs WTI

Correlation 83%, solid to hold in the future. Vital Points 2.20 Vs 63.71 and 5 year average 56.69

GDP Vs Fed Funds

Correlation -22%, Vital Points 2.20 Vs 0.98 and 5 year average 0.84. The spread in this relationship is 0.57, extremely low.

GDP Vs S&P’s

Correlation -45 %, Vital points 2.20 vs 2300.342 and 5 year average 23399.47. The spread in this relationship is 294 points.

 

Brian Twomey

2 and 10 Year Yields

Monthly averages 1 to 10 years for the 10 year yield severely compressed at current 2.24 to 2.74 and at a maximum range of 50 points. Averages and ranges should spread easily 2 and 3 times from current compression particularly when the 2 year maximum range is 80 points.

From June 2 to 13, the 10 year ranged 13 points from 2.05 to 2.18.

10 year Correlation to DXY is practically lost at 35%  and 10% to GDP yet positive at 83% to Fed Funds and positive 80% to the 2 year. Lost correlations to DXY and GDP explains why averages and ranges consolidated as those correlations should trade easily at 80% and above.

Break points to travel higher are located at 2.24, 2.27 and 2.29 to target easily 2.34 and 2.38. Current 10 year from the 1 year average at 2.74 is severely oversold. A far higher yield must break 2.34 and 2.382 to challenge 2.44 and 2.55. Perfect long points are located at 1.79, 1.82 and 1.87 to target 2.29 and 2.32.  A Fed interest rate cut may easily challenge those lower levels further.

The 2 year averages range from 0.91 to 2.52 and a maximum span of 80 points. The 2 year exceeds the range of the 10 year by 30 points. If a trade is warranted then the 2 year is a better trade. The 2 year is overbought from 0.91 and deeply oversold from 2.52.

From June 2 to 13,  the 2 year ranged 16 points from 1.77 to 1.93. Correlation to the 2 year stands on more solid ground than the 10 year as DXY correlates at 80%, S8P’s at 96%, Fed Funds at 99% and 80% to the 10 year. As in GDP correlations to the 10 year, the 2 year is negative 29% to GDP.

Vital supports for the 2 year are located at 1.437 and 1.347. Below 1.347 targets 1.18 and above 1.437 targets 1.80, 2.19 and 2.52. Perfect long point is located at 1.67 – 1.75 to target 2.19. if the Fed cuts then the 2 year travels lower to challenge 1.437 and 1.347.

Brian Twomey