S&P’s and GBP/JPY Targets

GBP/JPY next vital levels for the weekly view are located at 151.18, 151.28, 151.73 and 151.99. Most important break is 151.28.


Best GBP/JPY analysis is the breakout from longer term averages t 150.25 and 150.88.

GBP/JPY now enters normality on a normal scale to test 152.43 for higher prices.
GBP/USD as correlation to GBP/JPY this week remains much upside to easily 1.3334 and just ahead of big lines t 1.3373 then 1.3457.


GBP/USD as middle currency pair traded 70 pips higher while next middle currency AUD/USD as written traded 96 pips straight up. NZD/USD and EUR/USD as bottom and top currency pairs failed to move.


USD/JPY shorts at 114.22 and 114.37 to target 113.46 then 113.31. USD/JPY this week contains wide range ability and the pair to trade.


JPY cross pairs all traded 150ish pips higher and like GBP/JPY broke out from longer term averages. This is positive for upcoming weekly prices and trades.


USD/CAD remains safe above 1.2614 against a short strategy.


EUR/AUD as written broke below 1.6132 then 1.5950 to 1.5908 from 1.6148.
GBP/NZD must break below 1.9601 on a short strategy as GBP/NZD trades severely overbought.


Future writings; NASDAQ and 20 year monthly averages. Fed Funds rate and 30 year monthly averages, 90 Day Libor and Eurodollars and connection to Fed Funds. NASDAQ is not required 20 year monthly averages nor did today’s S&P’s.


90 day Libor is the offered side to Eurodollars yet Libor ceased to exist as Futures contracts and are no longer offered. Since 2018 , central banks created Risk free interest rates such as SOFR to the FED, STIR to the ECB and Bank Bills to the RBA and RBNZ.


AUD and NZD are not affected by the new interest rate arrangements and remain viable trades in the Future. Not much at the BOE as its hybrid interest rate/ Repo rate system remains however trading dead as dead may trade. Sonia at 0.05 hasn’t moved in months.

RBNZ probabilities: 43% no raise. RBNZ raised. How good are probabilities. Worthless. Probabilities factors as 2 ways for accuracy but for perfection, must run data.


Was OCR oversold or overbought and what may be a target price. Probabilities eliminates because its a number thrown out by lazy traders and today’s incompetent currency analysts. Many factor probabilities from Fed Funds and Eurodollar closing prices and this means probabilities change daily but range all over the board. Trust it at your peril.


S&P’s


The S&P’s are severely overbought from 1 month to 20 year monthly averages. The 5 year monthly average at last reporting was located at 2700’s. The average rose 300 pips in 6 ish months while the S&P’s rampaged higher.


The 10 year is found at 2248.57 then the averages from the 12 year to 20 year are factored from the S&Ps at 1100’s. The 1 year monthly average began its journey from 3700’s and now trades 1000 points higher at 4600’s. Overbought applies to the extremes.


The S&P’s at 4700’s trades at the top of the 1 year range.


Longs are impossible as a healthy correction is on the way. Healthy correction applies to all stock markets as stock markets are all connected as one instrument and much the same as the Currency/ Gold Trades. Gold is one instrument. The names and numbers may change but all are the exact same instruments.


The first big break is located at 4194.58 then 3683.88 and 3415.11.


Targets are located at 4497.09. then 4268.80, 4032.75, 3859.03.


Short entries are located anywhere as 4600’s and 4500’s trade in the stratosphere. The S&P’s at minimum require a 200 point correction yet much more to trade at a normal price.


As DXY and Gold both trade above 5 year averages, its only natural for the S&P’s and stock markets to trade lower. The S&P’s are risk instruments which means as the S&P’s drop, all risk instruments will follow to include currencies. But it also means DXY break at the 5 year average at 95.52 may remain above for quite some time in the future. Gold higher follows DXY.


Suggested is follow the Cash prices rather than Futures.

Yes to trades remain available for interested. brian@btwomey.com

Brian Twomey

Future Markets, Interest Rates, EUR/USD, USD/JPY

USD/JPY’s 5 vital numbers for Friday’s NFP as follows: 112.66, 112.81, 112.92, 113.51 and 113.82


Actual 112.91 to 113.32 or 41 pips. profit was earned on shorts. The trades was accomplished in 2 stages. because the trade was a middle range trade as all NFP releases are turning out to be reality.


EUR/USD 5 vital numbers for Friday’s NFP: 1.1239, 1.1254, 1.1267, 1.1324 and 1.1353
Actual 1.1291 to 1.1332 or 41 pips and the same as USD/JPY. Profit was earned on longs But from middle range and completed in 2 stages.


Together 1.1291 to 1.1332 and 112.91 to 113.32. The exact same only the opposite direction movements for trades at 41 pips.


Middle range is the same concept as saying neutral but a neutral price must travel to a location. The point is location. As seen from day trades, currency market prices entered yet another period of slowdown to price movements.


From known bottoms to tops at the start of every trade, price movements adjusted again to a slower price speed and shorter ranges from pre 2016 as wider ranges and faster price speeds. The slowdown was always coming upon us by central bank design but who knew it would meet to the degree of today’s prices.

NFP miss at 200,000 and 40 pips is the first sign to a problem. A traditional NFP miss by 50,000 to its historic 1939 range would trade far wider ranges than 40 pips.

NZD/USD traded 400 pips last month or 13 ish pips per day. NZD/USD’s big break at 0.6845 offered 105 pips to the downside in 7 days and barely 15 pips per day.


Strategies now require another adjustment and further adjustments until the current 50 year period ends for all trading. Its a matter of time when this all ends. My speculation was next period markets trade by the IMF’s SDR rate. if so, markets are guaranteed to trade 10 point daily ranges as the 1960’s.


Fed funds for the past year closed daily averages from 0.09 to 0.07. Europe’s Eonia to effect EUR/USD began the year at -0.481, began December at -0.489 and traded Friday at -0.490.


The opposite to Eonia is the STIR rate to currently replace Eonia. STIR traded 2 points Friday while Fed Funds traded 6 points as its extreme ranges.


The SOFR rate as the replacement to the 90 day Libor rate connected to Eurodollars trades 9 points to its extreme. Eurodollars so far today traded 99.8000 to 99.7975 yet trading overall 2 point daily ranges. And this includes current December Futures contracts and all contracts for 2022.


The slowdown is by interest rate design as central banks are killing off actively traded markets.
EUR/USD at current 1.1287. For the larger averages, EUR/USD trades a big fat neutral and targets lower 1.1100’s or 1.1700’s and easily.


JPY cross pairs for the larger averages trade another big fat neutral. GBP/JPY is the best of JPY cross pairs particularly at +60 correlation to GBP/USD. NZD/JPY stand clear.
NZD/USD problem over the past month is again a fat neutral.


AUD/USD and AUD cross pairs is the best of the non USD pairs to trade while USD/CAD and USD/JPY are best trades for USD pairs.


EUR/USD 5 vital numbers for today 1.1239, 1.1254, 1.1267, 1.1311 and 1.1353.


USD/JPY 5 vital numbers today 112.45, 112.59, 112.73, 113.31 and 113.59.


A EUR/USD Vs USD/JPY breakout would trade EUR/USD to 1.1100’s and USD/JPY to 114.00’s. Then comes long and short reversals.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: 5, 10, 15 Year Averages, EUR, JPY, AUD

The vast majority of currency prices since November are trading within the context of most vital 5, 10 nd 15 year averages. EUR/USD as a leader currency broke first November 10 from 1.1490 at the 5 year average then DXY followed 6 days later November 16 by breaking 95.52 at the 5 year. EUR/USD as a leader currency contained a 6 day lead time to DXY.


EUR/USD Vs DXY Lead and Lag Currencies


DXY then contained a 6 day lag time to USD cross pairs such as GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, CHF cross pairs and CAD cross pairs. While DXY broke above 95.52, EUR/NZD traded 1.6100’s and GBP/NZD 1.8900’s. Both EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD at 5 year averages of 1.9152 and EUR/NZD 1.6400’s imparted a long way to travel to break higher.


EUR/USD contained much more lead time to many currencies as follower currencies played the game of catch up to EUR/USD by trading above or below the larger averages. But this was also a warning to what’s ahead for all currency prices by the EUR/USD and DXY break as all currencies had to align to the new larger average arrangements.


5, 10 and 15 Year Averages


Due to trade at 5, 10 and 15 year averages, opportunity is here as much as danger. While November was the time and opportunity to re position prices to align to larger averages, December represents the time for deep caution as currency prices are now contained and traded within 5, 10 and 15 year averages.


Why 5, 10 and 15 is because most currencies trade within the larger average framework and because of the lead lag concept to all 28 currency pairs. EUR/GBP, CHF/JPY and CAD/CHF for example are laggard currencies to EUR/USD and even DXY. EUR/USD at the 5 year average is compatible to EUR/GBP at the 10 and 15 year average.


Most affected by the new larger average framework is cross pairs. Unaffected so far are the currency market’s defining currency pairs as GBP/USD VS USD/CAD. GBP/USD 1.3107 and USD/CAD 1.3038 are most vital points. Unaffected as well by the EUR/USD and DXY breaks. if either currency breaks then a completely different circumstance exists to currency markets.


GBP/JPY Correlations


As danger, GBP/JPY as lead currency to JPY cross pairs lost correlations last week to either GBP/USD and USD/JPY. From a leader currency, this is rare days especially from GBP/JPY as a highly special currency pair. GBP/JPY this week correctly correlates to GBP/USD +60 and minus 12% to USD/JPY.


Why the correlational change is due from GBP/JPY break at the 15 then 10 year averages at 150.88 and 150.25. As written last week, correlations change at significant levels. GBP/JPY break transferred correlation allegiance from USD/JPY to GBP/USD. GBP/USD is the traditional and rightful owner to GBP/JPY.


AUD/USD and EUR/AUD To the Brink and Targets


To define last week the message to the brink and prices in love with extremes. AUD/USD target from the 5 year at 0.6900 forced EUR/AUD 300 pips higher. To the extreme as AUD/USD dropped significantly on Friday to nearly complete the target at 0.6900’s from 0.7300’s.


When market prices set their sites on target completion, then prices will gun towards that target without regards to any market information or oversold / overbought conditions. The price just doesn’t care nor pay any attention to such trivialities.

EUR/AUD higher was caught in the crossfire and higher was its only choice.


To the 28 currency pairs, its imperative to focus trades on 5, 10 and 15 year averages. This is the present scale. Scale prices by any other means leads to problem trades. Seen by the new scales is a normal market and trading normal prices.


AUD/USD is a good example and this set up is common to most currency pairs to include EUR/AUD. AUD/USD is governed by 0.7307. A major line at 0.7298 crossed below 0.7307. While 0.7298 is deeply oversold to current 0.6993, the line at 0.7307 reaches normality at the 0.6999 target and is not yet oversold. Which is the line to follow for trade purposes.


5, 10 and 15 Year Price Dynamics


What changes the dynamic from focus on 5, 10 and 15 year averages is EUR/USD breaks above current 1.1499 or DXY drops below 95.52. Markets then go into re adjustment mode as we’ve seen in November beginning with EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD,

CAD and CHF cross pairs.


The positive and second option is all cross pairs align to anchor pairs as all above or below larger averages. Prices will then trade uniformly and normally without radical movements such as EUR/AUD and GBP/JPY last week.


AUD/USD as middle currency to EUR/USD and NZD/USD fits the scenario as well as bottom currency NZD. EUR/USD and GBP/USD cross pairs contain problems to EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD and EUR/JPY vs GBP/JPY.


EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD are stuck within larger averages and explains USD/CAD trading in small 200 pip increments while EUR/JPY sits oversold just above vital averages at 126.00’s and 125.00’s .GBP/JPY sits massive oversold below and between longer averages.


AS AUD/USD approaches 0.6999, NZD/USD 0.6500, GBP/USD at 1.3200 lows and EUR/USD at 1.1100’s, suspicion without actual fact is DXY eventually breaks 95.52. USD lower and non USD higher becomes the trade such as higher EUR/USD.


USD/JPY


Problem pair in the mix as usual is USD/JPY. USD/JPY was born a problem pair since WW2 and no changes today. USD/JPY is the preeminent disruptor to currency markets and USD/JPY to JPY cross pairs. USD/JPY is miles above the 5 year at 109.00’s.


USD/JPY sits at 112.76 against most vital break at 112.71 while DXY at 96.15 is 63 pips from 95.52. Miles higher for both or miles lower are only weekly options. DXY challenges next above at 97.16 and easily 114.00’s for USD/JPY or DXY 94.00’s and 93.00’s and 111.00’s for USD/JPY.


Markets at 50 year Inflection Point


Markets enter year 2022 and exactly 50 years since the 1972 free float. From BOE creation in 1694, year 2022 represents year 48 and 2024 at the 50 year mark. Year 2020 was the 12th year in the 4th quadrant of 12 1/2 years broken down from overall 50 years.

Important here is markets end at 50 year marks and a new system of trade develops. Happened every 50 years since 1694. Hurry for profits as I suspect markets trade next as dead as 1960’s currency trading for the new upcoming period.


The Week


USD/CHF and USD/JPY are partners this week at vital 0.9212 and 112.71 while USD/CAD begins the week deeply overbought.


Not much downside room left to AUD/USD however EUR/AUD remains oversold and trades between 1.6132 to 1,6204. Below 1.6132 targets 1.5950. GBP/AUD approaches 1.9158 and 1.9258.


GBP/NZD is the easier trade to EUR/NZD while EUR/USD long as usual represents number 1 ranked currency. GBP/NZD can easily ride the 5, 10 and 15 year wave over next trade weeks as its price is contained from 1.9158 to 1.9601.


EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY trade just above 5 year averages while GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY trade below yet contained within 10 and 15 year averages.


GBP/USD remains below vital 1.3372 and 1.3457. Both lines are rising. Below prior to vital 1.3107 exists supports at 1.3149 and 1.3117. GBP/USD 1,.3107 is a massive break and GBP won’t walk through easily.


USD/CAD and CAD/JPY remain on the high ranked list as well as AUD/USD Vs EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD.


NZD/USD and cross pairs remain on the back burner and the same positions as the past 2 months.


Overall currency markets require clearance or resolutions to longer term averages to again obtain normality.

Brian Twomey

Fed Funds V Eurodollars and EUR/USD V USD/JPY

Fed funds futures’ probabilities of future rate changes by:
Dec 2022 up by at least 25 bps 95.4%, down from 98.1% last week
Dec 2022 up by at least 50 bps: 77.2%, down from 86.8% last week
Feb 2023 – up by at least 25 bps: 96.6%, down from 98.3% last week.


The above percentages were factored from Treasury yields and are wrong. To factor actual probabilities correctly, 3 sources are paramount: Fed funds, Eurodollars and the 90 day interest rate.


The 90 day interest rate is most vital to all markets and all economies as the first short term rate established under Hoover in 1929 to fund the government. The Canadian central bank maintains 90 day rates for many nations from the first day of introduction.


Eurodollars are secondary to the actual Fed funds source to factor probabilities because Eurodollars are quoted, settled and traded by the 90 day rate and Eurodollars are off shore interest rates represented by Libor. Eurodollars answers the question how much money is held by banks overseas and at what specific rate.


Fed Funds as the onshore rate and Eurodollars are interest rates but specifically deposit rates. Exchange rates and currency trading is the trade of bank deposit rates. My daily trades are based on deposit rates and explains why daily trades are always correct.


Seen daily is reported probabilities to interest rate raises. This is the factor of Fed Funds and /or Fed Fund and Eurodollar Futures contracts. Contract prices change daily so therefore must probabilities change with contract prices.


Recall the RBNZ article and offered was a 43% chance to a raise or 67% to no raise. The RBNZ raised. How good was the factor to OCR and the 90 day rate as a forecast to probabilities. Zero.


As the Fed Meeting draws closer to raise reporting, chances are good the probabilities are within a fairly correct range. Chances are better than today’s probabilities which are wrong to an event 1 month away from today. This month is December and a new 3 month contract becomes pertinent as August now disappears from existence.


Fed Funds reported today as 0.08 and yesterday at 0.07. Fed Funds is related to Eurodollar Futures contracts as opposites. 100 – 8 or 1.00 – 0.08 = 92 as the Eurodollar contract. 100 – 7 = 93 or 93 represented as a Eurodollar futures contract.


To answer correct probabilities, today and in the future, its imperative to run Fed Funds data. Eurodollar contracts are offered for 10 years in the future so its imperative to run at least 10 years of Fed Funds data. More if necessary.


Answered to correct probabilities is Fed Funds oversold, overbought or sits doing nothing in ranges. By running the data is answered easily correct probabilities and permanent as well as a target price. The data offers not only a target price and probabilities but ranges to the actual price. The target price is far more vital than any probabilities.


Suppose the data reveals a deeply oversold Fed Funds rate.The trade is long financial instruments associated to a higher fed Funds rate and short financial instruments to an overbought rate. Probabilities becomes secondary.

Raise or not, what is the Fed imparting by a 25 point raise. Nothing except Fed Funds remains in a tiny range in between positive and negative probailities. Nothing to the overall curve. Nothing to exchange rate moves. Probabilities remain permanently bounded by 34% on either side of current prices. Its highly unlikely the Fed moves outside of the 34 % boundary lines.


Note RBNZ raised twice or 50 points and zero effect to the exchange rate.
Nothing to the curve for exchange rate traders but a giant significance to interest rate traders. The smartest traders among us are interest rate traders and worthy to follow if found. New Zealand’s 10 year yield dropped 13 points since the last raise, 8 points to the 5 year and 2 points to the 2 year.


Interest rate traders must be exact to their trades due to trade in tiny ranges. Fed Funds for example trades today from 0.08 to extremes at 0.06 to 0.12. Chances are good 0.12 doesn’t trade unless markets are hit hard by an unexpected outside event.


EUR/USD Vs USD/JPY


Current EUR/USD at 1.1301 and USD/JPY at 113.23. Both are exact oppsosite currency prices by Correlations and standard for currency markets. Both currently offer the same exact price. Watch for crossovers then take the trades in the direction of the cross. The current spread is 27 pips. Factor 27 pips to the trade and voila, profits exist without doing anything.


NFP ? 50 pips if lucky.


EUR/USD 5 vital numbers for today. 1.1239, 1.1254, 1.1267, 1.1324 and 1.1353.
USD/JPY 5 vital numbers for today. 112.66, 112.81, 112.92, 113.51 and 113.82.

Brian Twomey

EUR/JPY V USD/CAD Levels and Correlations

The most versatile currency pair in the 28 currency line up is USD/CAD. USD/CAD is the exact opposite pair to GBP/USD, opposite pair to CAD/CHF, opposite pair to EUR/USD and total opposite pair to EUR/JPY.


A USD/CAD trade runs exact opposite to above pairs and its built into the system of exchange rates by correlations. USD/CAD Vs EUR/JPY runs -98% and -88% to EUR/USD. GBP/USD V USD/CAD normally runs a consistent -90% correlations.


While current USD/CAD and GBP/USD spreads run a fairly normal 500 ish pips, long term trades are evaluated when spreads run 800, 1000 and 1200 to 1500’s. Spreads compress and contarct , compress and contract over time. Short term, EUR/JPY is the best trade evaluator to USD/CAD. Spreads currently run about an extremely small 200 ish pips.


Short spreads warns to a big move ahead but also to monitor trades for exchange rate cross overs. Current EUR/JPY trades above USD/CAD. If EUR/JPY trades below USD/CAD then short EUR/JPY at the same time to long USD/CAD. Current USD/CAD is overbought to oversold EUR/JPY therefore EUR/JPY above USD/CAD is correct to alignment.


In the past 5 trade days, USD/CAD achieved lows at 1.2600’s while EUR/JPY traded to 129.00’s. The cross over occurred around 128.00’s. Current 200 pips spreads to USD/CAD and EUR/JPY is the result to association of proximity to vital points.


USD/CAD higher must break 1.2828, 1.2844 and 1.2886 to target 1.2934 and 1.2960 then the big break at the 5 year average at 1.3039. USD/CAD below 1.2828 targets 1.2615 and 1.2611 then 1.2552 and 1.2355.


EUR/JPY supports are located at 127.41, 127.05 and 126.33.


EUR/JPY targets above 127.41 first 128.79, 129.27 and 129.56. Below 127.05 targets 126.33 then the 5 year average at 126.06.


Day trades contain longs and shorts per currency pair for multiple profit pips.


USD/CAD 5 vital numbers for today are located at 1.2732, 1.2745, 1.2758, 1.2829 and 1.2862.


EUR/JPY 5 vital numbers are located at 127.36, 127.47, 127.61, 128.31 and 128.63.


Note the exchange rate numbers are the exact same so entries and exits are the exact same except in the opposite direction.

Brian Twomey

Correlations, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD

DXY big line break is located at 95.25. Current range above trades from 95.25 to 97.16. Below 95.25 then range becomes 95.25 -94.70, 93.71 and 92.33. DXY 95.25 coincides to EUR/USD at 1.1498, GBP/USD at 1.3106 and USD/CAD at 1.3039.


GBP/JPY correlates to GBP/USD at +23% and USD/JPY at +10%. GBP/JPY for this trade week became completely lost to correlations. Under such danger to lost correlational situations, short is the only direction. Short from lost correlations is common practice to a currency price and standard over many years. Its the standard for many years to come as a trade practice.


Last week GBP/USD correlated to GBP/JPY at -52% and +71% to USD/JPY. The correlational adjustment was a radical change as correlations normally hold for at least 1 month. What changes correlation is significant breaks at respective levels by either GBP/USD or USD/JPY.


In this instance, anchor pairs drive cross pair GBP/JPY.


GBP/USD trades fairly normal within its bounds while USD/JPY is off kilter should trade to at least 110.00’s. USD/JPY is the problem to correlations.


A move is required by either GBP/USD or USD/JPY in order for GBP/JPY to re correlate and find its home to either GBP/USD or USD/JPY.


GBP/JPY short point was 151.31 but 151.31 and deeply oversold stood just ahead of big line breaks at 150.90 and 150.22. Next big break lower is located at 148.13. The weekly target at 152.86 stands and just prior to next vital point at current 153.07. GBP/JPY under correlational problems means 153.07 should hold unless a bonbshell hits the markets.


GBP/JPY traded lower this week based on correlational problems yet shorts were impossible due from not only oversold but from 150.90 and 150.22. Correct is long only when GBP/JPY achieves bottoms.


GBP/JPY and GBP/USD 50 day average is located 154.68 and 1.3572.
USD/JPY and GBP/JPY 50 day averages are located at 113.97 and 154.68. USD/JPY break at 113.97 targets the 100 day at 112.18, then 200 day at 111.05 and 253 at 110.65. USD/JPY’s direction is lower as short only.


View central bank Red books for trade methodologies and found is all trade by moving averages. But averages must align correctly. Chart averages are off by many miles.


GBP/USD


Big breaks for higher are located at 1.3379 and 1.3461. No significant change from last week however averages are rising to allow a wider trade range. Bottom long points are found at 1.3338, 1.3229 and 1.3119 just ahead of 1.3105 at the 5 year average. Long only is the strategy as GBP/USD’s price sits on the floor.


EUR/USD


Targets written last week remain at 1.1440, 1.1456 and 1.1475 just head of 1.1498. If DXY breaks below 95.25 then EUR/USD breaks above 1.1498 to 1.1511 then 1.1587 and 1.1606.

Brian Twomey

RBNZ, NZD/USD, USD/JPY

The RBNZ raise to.75 from 0.50 was accomplished to combat Inflation in line with the RBNZ mandate to maintain Inflation between 1 to 3%. OCR at 0.25 and Inflation at 4.9% was a forced move to raise by the RBNZ yet it was also a smart move.


The RBNZ had 2 choices and the same 2 choices for all central banks. Raise interest rates or restrict the money supply. The RBNZ choice was raise interest rates while the Fed and other central banks are on the path to restrict money supplies so not to touch the interest rate. Prior to QE, central banks would’ve all raised in a New York second to protect the economy.


Among all central banks, the RBNZ is by far the smartest but also the most independent as they act for the good of New Zealand first without regard to other central banks.


By OCR raise even by 25 points, the move was a lateral move with no effect to market instruments. The 10 year yield dropped 13 points since November 24, 14 points to the 2 year and 20 points to the 5 year and 6 points to the 90 day.


Rather than the trade to above interest rates, the effect to the exchange rate by 0.25 as primary importance was nothing and a fat zero effect. Seen in the day trade. Seen from overall RBNZ interest rates contained zero effects.


NZD/USD broke 0.6846 and traded to 0.6779 or 67 pips. Raise or no raise, NZD was trading lower upon the 0.6846 break.


Interest rates changed since 2016. The overnight rate once traded freely and closed at various points depending on trade for the day. Interest maturities also traded freely and closed based on market moves. Daily, a distance existed between the new overnight rate and maturities. A large distance meant good volatility for the next trade day while short distances experienced small ranges and no volatility.


Overnight rates today are held purposefully in tiny ranges and close based on the small range. FED Funds for example closed at 0.08 for many past months. The work, trading and profits is the result of trade in maturities. Maturities never trade far from overnight rates. And this restricts exchange rate movements by the post 2016 methods.


While the RBNZ raised 25 points, maturities maintained pace with 75 so the effect to the exchanger rate was literally zero. Movement to NZD is not the result of 50 or 75 but based on the interest rate structure which didn’t change at all, not one iota.

If the RBNZ held steady without a raise then no difference existed to NZD. The choice was higher above 0.6846 or lower below 0.6846.


While focus on 75, raise, lower or hold steady, the difference between FED, ECB, BOE or any central bank interest rates is the same old thing. The effect to the exchange rate is the exact same from central bank to central bank.


Interst rate numbers appear different because of appearance of large numbers between central banks but its the exact same to exchange rates.


Was the RBNZ raise a dovish or hawkish move is an irrelevant question. The move was lateral with zero effect. Interest rate numbers are pertinent to the economics to any particular nation’s system but not to the exchange rate when measured against another central bank.


If the RBNZ moved in a much bolder way by an enormous raise or lower then central banks would’ve called emergency meetings to match the move as the exchange rate is most important nation to nation. Central banks won’t ever allow a particular nation to gain large advantage to exchange rates.


See the lessons from the 1930’s exchange rate wars and a fascinating read. Today’s trade methodology gained from the 1930’s is never to allow exchange rates nation to nation to trade far from each other.

The example from the 1930’s is never to allow a nation to gain export advantage over another nation. To do so would bring the same exchange rate wars as in the 1930’s or a battle to adjust massively interest rates.


The greatest battle of the 1930’s was the French Franc Vs GBP as nations sought to destroy GBP by sheer central bank collusion to beat GBP in exports.


NZD/USD 5 numbers for today, 0.6758, 0.6771, 0.6779, 0.6810 and 0.6828.


NZD/JPY


For interested, NZD/JPY achieved target at 76.00’s from 80.00’s and 81.00’s. JPY cross pairs for November profited 2000, 2500, 3000 pips?


Merit and trade skills moved to irrelevant status today in favor of cheap subscriptions and social media views. The competition today for subscriptions is race to the bottom to achieve greater subscriptions than the next guy and to watch screens all day.


USD/JPY


Weekly Trade as posted: short 113.70 and 113.89 to target 113.11. Highs achieved 113.94 and lows to 113.11 for +83 pips.


Most vital as written is the break at today’s 112.95 to decide higher or lower. A big big break and USD/JPY traded to 112.68 or + 27 Pips.


USD/JPY is now on the way to the 109 target.


USD/JPY 5 vital numbers for today: 112.61, 112.82, 113.01, 113.46 and 113.77. USD/JPY is at day’s bottoms, long.

Brian Twomey

GBP/JPY Weekly Trade

GBP/JPY Weekly Trade


Posted on my youtube channel at Brian Twomey Forex and Trading Battle as a guy offered an incorrect GBP/JPY trade. Never showed up on either channel. If I knew how to operate you -tube, i would post tons of great content.


Due to masses of incorrect content and failed trades from rookie traders however, views are slim for most FX posts all around on you tube. Plus incompetents like Kathy Liens crooked, Boris the Schloss and Pip Czar run the major sites, Fx traders are consolidated on those sites. The crooks run the asylum today. FX Street is no different as all push extremely hard for subscriptions and every article mentions expert 1000 times. Such crooks. They turn my stomach.

We can only pray for their ruin and total destruction by the harm they caused to multitudes of traders. We will cheer that day.


They may be called traders but they aren’t trading.


GBP/JPY

  1. Long Anywhere or 151.37 to target 152.86
  2. To 152.86. By 151.52, 151.67, 151.82, 151.96, 152.11, 152.26, 152.41, 152.56, 152.71. Show me anyone competent enough to assist by vital levels.
  3. Long above 153.32 to target 153.94. Assumes 153.32 breaks above. Preparation is key.
  4. Short 153.94 to target 153.48. Assumes 153.32 breaks.
  5. Short 152.86 to target 152.40. Assumes 153.32 holds.

  6. Available pips and profit Pips
  7. 301 total pips available.
  8. 195 pips available if 153.32 fails to break.
  9. 151.37 to 152.86 = 149 pips.
  10. 153.32 to 153.94 = 62 pips
  11. 153.94 to 153.48 = 46 pips.
  12. 152.86 to 152.40 = 46 pips.

  13. This is not only the mastery of trading to profit from 50% to 100% of available pips but its why traders rely on Brian Twomey due to big profits and precise trading. I do what very few if any traders can match.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: USD/JPY, DXY, EUR, AUD, GBP, NZD

Currency and all financial market prices are infatuated to trade to the brink and to extremes. And many examples exist throughout years of trading and markets. DXY 96.94 before vital 97.00’s, then drop. USD/CAD 1.2819, then drop. GBP/USD last Monday 1.3419 and 1.3387 then drop.


For interested, USD/JPY achieved weekly target at 113.35 and offered 31 extra pips from trade to 113.04. From 115.51 and 2 lots resulted in 323 pips.


CAD/JPY achieved target at 88.36 from 92.00’s and traded to 88.40. GBP/CAD target at 1.6600’s traded to low 1.6700’s from 1.7000’s, EUR/CAD achieved 1.4100’s from 1.4400’s. All trades previously posted and the list fails to include weekly and daily trades.


DXY Vs WTI Vs Gold Vs S&P


While DXY and Gold trade above 5 year averages, the S&P’s and WTI also trade above 5 year averages. DXY and Gold are the safe assets while WTI and the S&P’s the risk instruments. If DXY and GOLD remain above 5 year averages then WTI and S&P’s must drop below the 5 year.


10 Year Yield


Closed 1.48 and in the range from 1.2290 to 1.6146 as posted September 29. October and November held a range from 1.7111 to 1.4210. Below 1.2290 targets the range from 1.2290 to 1.1803. Above 1.6146 targets the range from 1.6146 to 1.8696.

         The Week

DXY’s drop from 96.94 fell prior to next resistance at 97.16. Next targets are located at 97.62, 98.14, 98.47, 98.52, 98.62 and 98.81. Above levels are short points to USD currencies and long EUR, GBP and AUD. DXY from the close at 96.07 contains only 100 pips to 97.16 which means count 100 pips lower for EUR, GBP, AUD and long entries are established.


DXY 96.94 allowed USD/JPY to trade to 113.35 target and EUR/USD to 1.1305 and a continuation to long only strategies.


While last week was a tough week, the current week strategy is throw a dart at any currency to trade and profit.


USD/CAD Vs CAD/JPY V CAD/CHF


USD/CAD dropped Friday from 1.2796 to 1.2776 and a dead move for CAD. USD/CAD for the week sits massive overbought but for week 2, lacks range ability. CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF will lead the way higher this week and drive USD/CAD lower.


USD/CHF and USD/JPY


USD/CHF 0.9231 decides CHF fate while USD/JPY 112.92 break targets much lower to middle 111.00’s and closer to 109 target. USD/CAD is the odd ball currency again to its brothers USD/CHF and USD/JPY.


JPY cross pairs are all oversold for the week and sitting just ahead of massive supports. NZD/JPY is added to the list of JPY cross pairs but dead last and only because NZD/PY trades just above supports and correlates to high 90% to USD/JPY. Oversold JPY cross pairs assumes higher and short tops for USD/JPY.


CHF/JPY 122.35 decides CHF/JPY higher and lower. CHF/JPY 122.35 corresponds to USD/JPY 112.92 and USD/CHF 0.9231. All will break together.


AUD/USD


While 0.7309 and 0.7338 are primary price drivers, 0.7338 is massive oversold along with all AUD cross pairs. AUD/USD 0.6900 target is 200 pips from the 0.7112 close. Long only strategies is the preferred way forward.


NZD/USD


Same story to NZD over the past 5 weeks. NZD/USD contains range, noise and problems to its cross pairs. Until this situation rectifies, better trades exist.


GBP


GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/AUD and caution GBP/NZD are preferred GBP trades for the week. GBP/JPY earns a place on the GBP rankings due to overbought and the pips are easy to profit.


USD/JPY


No thrill to this weekly trade but here’s the basic set up. Short 113.70 and 113.89 to target 113.11. The USD/JPY driver is DXY as USD/JPY always shared a high 90% correlation to DXY. The potential upside to DXY is exactly 109 pips to 97.16 which places USD/JPY at 114.08 and 114.23.


DXY tops and short points for Monday are located at 96.31 then 96.56 and during the week at 97.05 which says 97.16 may not trade this week.

Brian Twomey

EUR/NZD, USD/JPY, JPY Cross Pairs, AUD, NZD

EUR/NZD as written November 3 to long term targets, EUR/NZD traded to 1.6081 lows and here’s the commentary: Long term targets assumes the 10 year breaks higher to target 1.6490, 1.6522, 1.6555 then 1.6697. EUR/NZD broke 1.6419 and traded to highs at 1.6559.


Longs from 1.6081 lows runs + 478 pips. Trade duration was 3 weeks.
GBP/NZD from November 3 commentary and lows at 1.8900;s: GBP/NZD higher must again break 1.9137 to target 1.9262, 1.9279 and 1.9397. Further GBP/NZD runs into a brick wall at 1.9412, 1.9467 and 1.9488.


GBP/NZD traded to 1.9547 highs. We can only take credit for November 3 targets at 1.9397 and +400ish pips.


Don’t lose sight to posts, trades and targets.


GBP/AUD remained a constant throughout November as GBP/AUD hit the 1.8400’s vital break then traded to first 1.8500’s then today at 1.8600’s.


USD/JPY


The Weekly trade went off track by 95 pips to entry and the 2nd week to a free money, market bonus as 1 lot added from 115.51 now trades 113.65 lows and again the target remains 113.35. The first lot +186 pips and 2nd lot runs +92 pips for a grand total of +278 pips. The target at 113.35 is within 30 pips.


USD/JPY was a 5 day trade and only requirement was a few clicks then go live life and pay no attention to screen watching or market blabber.


A trade begins at entry and ends at target and due to this situation, no stops, screen watching and nothing to do except clicks then watch the money pile high quickly.
What changed in the last 10 years was sophistication of trades as we trade up and down continuously from target to target. And done effortlessly as seen over years.


GBP/JPY and JPY Cross Pairs


GBP/JPY from 156.00’s November 3 traded to 151.11 lows or 500 pips. Target finally achieved.


As written and written, JPY cross pairs contain miles of downside. Miles of downside traded and miles more to go.


AUD/JPY achieved target at 81.33 from 85.00 highs. NZD/JPY achieved 77.00 lows to 76.00 target. CAD/JPY achieved 89.03 lows from 91.00 and 92.00 highs on a target at 88.36. CAD/JPY is close.


AUD/USD


AUD/USD target from 0.7309 is located at 0.6900 exactly and above big break for higher is located at 0.7285 or typical 300 pips range.


NZD/USD
Broke 0.6846 to trade to 0.6804 lows. As written 3 days ago, next lines exist at 0.6779 and 0.6744.


DXY despite a typical dead issue trade, highs achieved 96.95 to 96.30 lows and dropped from reported massive lines from 97.00’s and 98.00’s.


The list of targets as posted prior at fxstreet and my blog is endless. Trades are delivered as day trades, 24 hour trades, weekly trades and long term target trades.

Ask this question while waiting for targets. How was life spent outside markets.

Brian Twomey

Thanksgiving, EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD

On this day to give thanks to god and country, year 18 begins during this time. An extremely long and hard fought battle to maintain existence. Year 2003 and 2004 markets were fast and moved far and wide quickly.


As a Political Science Professor and teaching full loads every semester, the goal then was stop the paychecks to disappear to the markets. I made the professional losers of today look like they were Sainted by the Pope and Knighted by the Queen by the amount of losses.


As a Professor, life was good as FX trading was not a prerequisite to a better life. But losses turned into a provocation, a confrontation then an ultimatum and passionate challenge.


I accepted the challenge anyway using pen, paper and calculator and I vowed then, to figure how and why the red and blue lights moved and after 17 years, I know how the lights move from Red to Blue.


Every bank research report was read as well as central bank research papers. Then I went behind every figure, calculation and factor to understand what these analysts were talking about. Currency analysts then as opposed to today were true pros and masters at their craft and much was gained by understanding vast FX knowledge. Yet FX knowledge is a life long pursuit as things change from time to time to require adjustments.


Trades for example radically changed, duration to targets radically changed. From $50 lots to trade today by spreads is another. Interest rates and interest rate markets radically changed. The only constant is money supplies connected to Futures prices. Speculation is this was the premise to design Futures markets and prices.


Today’s results speak for themselves as the progression to 15 + years of trades, education and knowledge was published on my blog and Fxstreet. I achieved far more than I bargained for 18 years ago.

All I wanted then was to re gain my losses and earn a few extra dollars by trading. I passed that objective. Yesterday’s Pen, paper and calculator is still the preferred method to trade. After 20 + years teaching college, I walked away. All the many offers to manage money, I turned down.


Eventually, I will walk away especially if challenges and further knowledge no longer exist to pursue other interests and passions. An opportune time as 50 years of markets is here and we will move to different markets, different market structures. Happens every 50 years.


I will assure to those with me for many many years, all will have enough money to sustain themselves easily well beyond their years and thensome.


The Week


EUR/USD Vs DXY


EUR/USD target at now 1.1022 from 1.1490 is not only close but EUR/USD is vastly oversold. The strategy moving forward is long only. DXY achieved 96.91 highs at the same time EUR/USD traded to 1.1187 lows.


DXY’s brick wall at 97.00 and 98.00 is here from 95.25. Current EUR/USD target now runs to 1.1445 and 1.1485 and bumps against the 5 year average at now 1.1496. The 1.1496 line is a rising line to assist to long EUR/USD strategies.


Where EUR/USD becomes interesting to long only strategies is EUR enters its seasonal downtrend in December and especially January. This reveals the 1.1496 line break above may take more time to allow a further rise.


USD/JPY


As EUR/USD traded to deeply oversold lows at 1.1187, USD/JPY decided to travel further overbought to 115.50 highs and 95 pips off this week’s entry. Another rare market blessing is upon us as deeply overbought USD/JPY targets a break at 112.85 then 111.62 and 111.19.


Massive and many averages exist at 109.00’s and the overall target at 109.00’s may also take time to allow the averages to drop. Short only strategies is the only trade.
The current driver to currency markets is EUR/USD Vs USD/JPY rather than traditional GBP/USD Vs USD/CAD.


GBP/USD


Bottoms and vital lines for GBP/USD are located at 1.3232 and 1.3102 at the 5 year average. GBP/USD sits deeply oversold. Big line breaks above are located at 1.3387 and 1.3467 to targets upper 1.3500’s. A break at 1.3595 is required to target 1.3600’s then 1.3800’s.

Why 1.3600’s mention is the target from 1.3102 is located at 1.3600’s.
USD/CAD trades between 1.2819 and 1.2547 as big breaks to higher and lower. Here’s USD/CAD big line targets and breaks: 1.2229, 1.2351, 1.2547, 1.2819, 1.2839 then the 5 year average at 1.3042. USD/CAD above 1.2351 trades in 200 ish pip ranges between vital levels.


AUD/USD


Big line breaks are located at 0.7285, 0.7309 then 0.7289 to targets 0.7400’s and higher.


NZD and RBNZ


NZD/JPY for RBNZ 50 pips, NZD/USD 41 pips and 31 pips for NZD/CHF. And not in 1 direction. Correct to leave RBNZ alone and don’t bother as nothing existed to trade.

If RBNZ raised or lowered 100 points or remained on hold, NZD would ‘ve traded the exact same pip movements because NZD prices contain big problems and doesn’t have anywhere to go.

Brian Twomey

DXY V EUR/USD and RBNZ V NZD/USD

Current DXY at 96.40 approaches many and massive averages from 97.00’s to 98.00’s. EUR/USD traded to 1.1226 lows while DXY achieved tops at 96.61. Reversals for higher and lower DXY Vs EUR/USD are located at 95.25 DXY and EUR/USD 1.1494. DXY trades within 60 pips to a brick wall.


DXY day trade tops today are located at 96.79,96.91 and 97.04 while EUR/USD bottoms are located at 1.1210, 1.1197, 1.1191 and 1.1177.


On a reversal higher EUR/USD tops are located at 1.1262 and 1.1291 Vs DXY bottoms at 96.30. 96.18 and 96.06. DXY 96.06 bottom should match close to EUR/USD at 1.1262 and 1.1291.


EUR/USD sits currently deeply oversold. EUR/USD began the week massive oversold.


GBP/USD at current 1.3300’s trades within 200 pips to its 5 year average at 1.3101 while USD/CAD at 1.2700’s trades within 300 pips to 1.3043. GBP/USD at current prices sits deeply oversold and overbought USD/CAD.


RBNZ


Probabilities RBNZ raises OCR from 0.50 to 0.75 sits at +43% and 33% to raise from 0.50 to 1.00 while a 80% probability exists to OCR on hold.


The only scenario to possible raise is OCR’s overnight drop from 0.52 to 0.48 or 4 points. However OCR traded from 0.23 to 0.20 throughout the month of September. A raise was signaled not by OCR but by the 30 day rate while today’s non movement to interest rates and yields provides no warning to possible OCR movements. We’re on the side of on hold.


NZD/USD and NZD/CAD


NZD/USD approaches its 5 year average at 0.6846. To consider a possible break lower, NZD/USD must first trade below 0.6888 and 0.6840 then 0.6779 and 0.6744. Above is located 0.6932 to range from 0.6932 to 0.7048 and 0.7051.


NZD/USD’s problem to ranges is both NZD/USD and NZD/JPY trade above 5 year averages while NZD/CHF and NZD/CAD trade below. NZD lacks uniformity. Either NZD/USD breaks below 0.6846 and NZD/JPY at 76.57 or NZD/CHF trades above 0.6596 and NZD/CAD 0.8919.


NZD’s main problem is NZD/CAD as it trades between 2 giant points from 0.8829 to 0.8919 or 90 pips. NZD/CAD’s price path is found by 0.8817, 0.8826, 0.8829 then 0.8869.


Watch NZD/JPY at 79.43 for lower prices.


Until NZD/USD and NZD cross pairs right size to trade in proper locations then NZD will continue to trade as a problem currency and best to avoid as better and more profitable trades exist.

Brian Twomey

Correlations: EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD

Correlations listed below are derived from my averages 5 to 253 days. The 253 day average is an average of 7 nations yearly trading days. The 253 day is exact to USD and New Zealand. Why include 253 is because the 200 day or 6 months correspondence to markets is strange and not completely explained.


The averages total 7 which places the 50 day direct center to 5, 10 and 20 below and 100, 200 and 253 above. Averages are exact and perfect which means Correlations are perfect. Applying faulty averages from charts abuses the privilege for correct correlations. A negative correlation may end as positive or positive may end as negative.


Correlations are good for at least 1 month.


NZD/USD as seen is negatively correlated to NZD/JPY, NZD/CHF and NZD/CAD. USD/JPY owns JPY cross pairs by correlation except EUR/JPY.


NZD/USD


NZD/USD Vs NZD/JPY -12% or 12%
NZD/USD Vs NZD/CHF -0.04% or 04%
NZD/USD Vs NZD/CAD -0.27% or 27%


EUR/USD


EUR/USD Vs EUR/JPY + 0.62 or 62%
EUR/USD Vs EUR/GBP + 0.94 or 94%.
EUR/USD Vs EUR/CHF + 0.98% or 98%.
EUR/USD Vs EUR/CAD + 0.97% or 97%.
EUR/USD Vs EUR/NZD + 0.98% or 98%.
EUR/USD Vs EUR/AUD +0.85 or 85%.


GBP/USD


GBP/USD Vs GBP/JPY -0.52 or 52%.
GBP/USD Vs GBP/CHF +0.96 or 96%.
GBP/USD Vs GBP/CAD 0.94% or 94%.
GBP/USD Vs GBP/NZD +0.97% or 97%.
GBP/USD Vs GBP/AUD +0.51% or 51%.


AUD/USD


AUD/USD Vs AUD/JPY -0.21% or 21%.
AUD/USD Vs AUD/CHF +0.95% or 95%.
AUD/USD Vs AUD/CAD +0.95% or 95%.
AUD/USD Vs AUD/NZD +0.97% or 97%.


USD/CAD


USD/CAD Vs CAD/JPY – 0.29% or 29%.
USD/CAD Vs CAD/CHF -0.47% or 47%.
CAD/JPY Vs CAD/CHF +0.42% or 42%. Same currency pair

Brian Twomey

DXY Vs EUR/USD, USD/JPY Correlations, GBP

Currency prices enter a fairly horrible week ahead as ranges are non existent and driven by proximity to 5 year averages. The 2 main drivers to overall currency markets are DXY and EUR/USD as tops and bottoms are within 200 pips at DXY 97.00’s and 98.00’s Vs EUR/USD 1.1100’s and 1.1018 target.


DXY Vs EUR/USD


As last written in September while DXY traded 91.00’s and 92.00’s, massive resistance existed at 94.00’s then the 5 year average at 95.00’s. DXY broke above the 5 year average at current 95.25 to trade to 96.14 highs. EUR/USD simultaneously broke below its 5 year average at 1.1490 and traded 239 pips lower to 1.1251.


DXY from current 96.07, contains in its price path massive resistance and tops from 97.00’s to 98.00’s and close at 200 pips. EUR/USD 200 pips lower places its price at 1.1100’s and current target at 1.1018.


DXY on the way down must break 95.51, 95.45 then 95.25 at the 5 year average to target 92.00’s and 91.00’s again where the uptrend began. EUR/USD on the way up must break 1.1469, 1.1494, 1.1589, 1.1601, 1.1630 to target 1.1700’s and 1.1800’s. Big lines are located at 1.1804 then 1.1991.


EUR/USD sits deeply oversold from averages at 1.1500’s, and 1.1600’s to 1.1800’s.


DXY Vs USD GOLD and S&P’s


Gold’s rise is explained by DXY’s break above the 5 year average as Gold and DXY both trade above 5 year averages and both are finally aligned after a 1 year hiatus when DXY traded below 5 year averages and Gold traded above. The S&P’s above its 5 year average at 2700;s from last check is now vulnerable to align correctly with DXY and Gold by trading below the 5 year average.


JPY Cross Pair Correlations


EUR/USD Vs EUR/JPY and USD/JPY


EUR/JPY relinquished correlations to USD/JPY at current -47% and aligned to EUR/USD at +62%. EUR/JPY for the week is deeply oversold along with EUR/USD. Big move for EUR/JPY as its place as widely traded currency pair since 2001 by 3 year Triennial reports is to serve as the premiere risk instrument to JPY cross pairs. EUR/USD and USD/JPY correctly correlate at -97%.


GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and USD/JPY


While GBP/USD and USD/JPY correlate at -96%, GBP/USD lost its correlations to GBP/JPY at -52% as GBP/JPY aligned to USD/JPY at +71%.


AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, USD/JPY


AUD/USD correlates -83% to USD/JPY and -21% to AUD/JPY while USD/JPY owns AUD/JPY at +71%.


NZD/USD, NZD/JPY, USD/JPY


NZD/USD correlates negative 32% to USD/JPY and minus 12% to NZD/JPY. USD/JPY owns NZD/JPY by high correlations at +97%.


USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, USD/JPY


USD/CAD Correlates to USD/JPY at +54% and +29% to CAD/JPY. USD/JPY correlations run +95% to CAD/JPY.


DXY Vs USD/JPY and JPY Cross Pairs


The caution is EUR/JPY to mis correlations and oddball currency Vs USD/JPY. Rare day for GBP/JPY to not correlate to GBP/USD but a current bonus for shorts. As DXY reaches its top at 97.00’s and 98.00’s, USD/JPY will follow along with JPY cross pairs. Both contain many miles of downside yet to trade.


The Week


GBP this week is a continuation from last week as favored trades and premiere category. Top ranked are GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF while caution is advised for GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD and possibly GBP/AUD. GBP/AUD traded 500 pips higher in the last 2 weeks and approaches overbought. Shorts are preferred however divergence exists to EUR/AUD. GBP/AUD is the better trade.


Oversold EUR/NZD diverges to GBP/NZD’s due to GBP/NZD’s proximity to its 5 year average at 1.9158. EUR/NZD is the preferred trade.


NZD/USD, NZD/CHF and NZD/CAD contain severe noise and range problems and for the week as in the past 4 weeks, no interest exists to trade NZD currencies. Short is the only direction for NZD/JPY as the only viable trade however other and better trades exist than to touch NZD/JPY. Target at 76.00’s remain outstanding.


RBNZ


RBNZ’s OCR at current 0.50 is higher than AUD at 0.10, matches GBP Sonia at 0.5, matches ECB Eonia at 0.5 and lower than the FED at 0.8. Not seen is a raise nor are RBNZ interest rates signaling a raise. On hold is more acceptable.


CAD


CAD this week is driven by CAD/JPY as USD/CAD and CAD/CHF contains range problems. CAD/JPY drove the trifecta relationship last week.


GBP and USD/JPY


Best trades and categories are USD/JPY, JPY cross pairs and GBP as AUD/USD and cross pairs also contain problems. USD/CHF is untouchable from its own range problems.


USD/JPY Weekly Trade


Short 114.37 and 114.48 to target 113.36.

Brian Twomey

USD/JPY and JPY Cross Pairs

USD/JPY’s target at 113.30 achieved 113.57 lows. As outlined to trade choices from a missed entry at 114.27 and 114.32, and the rise to 114.96, 2 lots held from 114.96 and 114.27 runs +209 pips. The 2nd lot from 114.96 to 114.27 profited +69 pips if traders bailed while the first lot ran free and clear. Either way to outlined choices, no concept exists to losses in trading.


Levels on the downside as follows: 113.72,113.53 and 113.44.


EUR/JPY from the 129.24 target from 132.00’s achieved new lows at 127.97. EUR/JPY faces massive levels at 126.52, 125.90 and 125.46. All massive breaks to result in a deeper EUR/JPY drop if broken. EUR/JPY sits currently at richter scale oversold .

As written, USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs contain a long way to drop and short only strategy. GBP/JPY broke 153.66 to the downside and traded to 152.51 lows. Supports are close at 151.09 and 150.12. Longs look promising for next week.


AUD/JPY achieved new lows at 82.16 against the target at 81.33 and 83 pips to go. AUD/JPY is free and clear to roam and range as 80.17 contains the big support and next major break to trade miles lower.


NZD/JPY finally achieved a move and new lows at 79.51. Like AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY contains wide range ability as 76.55 and 75.09 remains a far distant break, so far.


CAD/JPY target at 88.36 from 92.00’s achieved also new lows at 89.69 and 133 pips to target. No trouble for CAD/JPY to next support level at 86.91. CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY commonality is all are allowed free and wide range movements. All are the best pairs to trade alongside GBP/JPY.

Caution however to NZD/JPY as NZD for the month hasn’t been a terrific trade choice as NZD/USD is stuck inside 0.6800’s to 0.7200’s.


Overall currency markets dictates by GBP/USD below at 1.3099 Vs USD/CAD at 1.3044.

GBP/USD trades 400 pips above 1.3099 while USD/CAD trades 400 pips to 1.3044. if either GBP/USD or USD/CAD breaks higher, lower or simultaneously then much more downside exisdts to GBP/USD and Upside to USD/CAD.


While we wait, GBP/USD and USD/CAD will trade in wide ranges and good trade choices for upcoming week;s.


JPY cross pairs all sit deeply oversold and a rise is expected next week. The overall question is how are Correlations running from USD/JPY to JPY cross pairs. Last check was high +90%. This will eventually switch to negative from positive to respective anchor pairs.


For example as EUR/USD to EUR/JPY high correlations and AUD/USD to AUD/JPY. This switch will radically change currency markets to risk favored and to trade in wider ranges as opposed to present dead movements.

Brian Twomey

USD/JPY and JPY Cross Pair Targets, EUR, GBP

USD/JPY add 1 lot short yesterday at 114.96 resulted to trade lows at 113.87 and + 109 Pips. The first lot from short 114.27 and 114.32 runs +40 pips for a total of + 149 pips. From 113.87, target at 113.30 is now close at 57 pips lower.


No such concept as a loss in trading exists and only 1 day was lost to time. The traded financial instrument doesn’t matter as the methodologies remain the same.


While USD/JPY traded to 114.96 for the weekly trade, friends and subscribers benefited from 8 day trades since the Sunday open as we trade day trades twice daily. And all trades had no choice except to trade short as target was 113.30. Yesterday’s extra lot was a bonus.


USD/JPY to target remains to vital breaks at 113.60, 113.42, 113.33 and 113.24. Day trade lows today are located at 113.77 and 113.63. Overall long term strategy remains short only.


EUR/JPY target achieved


From JPY cross pair long term trade targets posted Oct 15. EUR/JPY achieved target at 129.24 and traded to lows at 129.02 for 22 extra pips. From 132.00’s, trade ran +300 ish pips.


AUD/JPY target at 81.33 traded to 82.67 lows from 84.00’s and 85.00’s depending on trader entry. Trade runs + 200 to 300 ish pips.

CAD/JPY target at 88.36 from 92.00’s traded to lows at 90.23 for +200 ish pips.


GBP/JPY target at 151.78 achieved lows at 152.14 from 157.00’s, 158.00’s for 600 ish pips. A grand total of 1500 ish pips, 4 trades and 1 month.


NZD/JPY remains open yet runs +150 to 200 ish pips. CHF/JPY was completed at 500 ish pips from highs at 122.00’s to 117.00’s. The worst trade as written was NZD/JPY as NZD/USD and cross pairs remained on bottom trade rankings all month. NZD failed to perform yet known in advance by weekly trades.


USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs contain far more downside. USD/JPY target as posted remains 109.50. USD/JPY currently trades overbought and required for more downside is a break at 112.51.


EUR/USD


EUR/USD traded to lows at 1.1262 from 1.1490. November 10 was posted lower targets as follows: 1.1457, 1.1429, 1.1379, 1.1258 and 1.1197. EUR/USD 1.1262 traded just prior to the next big break at 1.1258. EUR/USD November 10 traded at 1.1500’s.


GBP


For next week as mentioned yesterday, GBP/JPY is on the watch list as it trades overbought to oversold GBP/USD. GBP/JPY closes at 153.66 or in the vicinity changes views to GBP/USD as exclusion to top trades next week. GBP/JPY can easily achieve 153.66 and lower.


Current overbought USD/CAD on the other side, is running into range problems and requires a move otherwise, USD/CAD trades dead next week.

Brian Twomey. Interested in trades, contact brian@btwomey.com

MID Week: EUR, GBP, AUD, JPY, NZD

Point of note to yesterday’s Gold / Currency trades was not only +92 points but completed in a total of 12 trades and structured as day trades. All financial instruments as day trades must structure as day trades to know what to trade, where and when.


If Norway’s stock market as the benchmark OSE was traded for its total of 6 points today, then 6 points must find its structure. The Oslo OMX 20 traded today so far 8 points. Those 8 points must be structured to profit from the 8 points. Silver yesterday traded 25.48 – 24.82 or 0.66 points. Set up as a day trade, then comes profit.


Knowledge of the financial instrument traded doesn’t matter a hill of beans. Anyone can trade for example the stock market Index in Cucamonga or a single stock in Cucamunga and profit as long as the structure is right.


USD/JPY and the Repair Trade


USD/JPY’s weekly target traded to 114.96 or 67 points off kilter. What a blessing. Rare for such wrong but the strategy is add 1 lot.


The choices are trade the extra lot to breakeven then exit with profit. Exit both lots with profit on the 2nd lot and breakeven on the first lot. Exit the 2nd lot with profit and continue to trade the first lot to target. Or trade both lots to target. Never a loss as target is the trade. Lost is time but never profits. Entries are secondary to targets.


USD/JPY is massively overbought short. medium and long term from the 5 year average at 109.00’s and this richter scale overbought status won’t hold.


EUR/GBP = 0.8507, and 10 and 15 year averages at 0.8426 and 0.8401. EUR/GBP broke below and traded to 0.8388 lows. EUR/GBP’s drop assisted EUR/USD to travel lower and higher for GBP/USD and all GBP cross pairs. EUR/GBP is not the pair to trade but currently stands massive oversold to match oversold

EUR/USD.


EUR/GBP is the currency pair to hold EUR/USD and GBP/USD prices in place and prevents EUR/USD and GBP/USD to trade to outer space limits. From current EUR/USD and GBP/USD, EUR/GBP trades from 0.8839 to 0.7438.


GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD were this week’s winners as both traded 250 pip higher. GBP oversold as written Sunday was the best category to trade and all GBP pairs traveled higher. From 19 currency pairs traded weekly, does 60 pips make a difference to USD/JPY. Not when 19 pairs trade to targets and profits.


EUR/USD from 1.1490, traded to 1.1262 or 228 pips. EUR/USD target is located at 1.1016. Today’s EUR/USD day trade bottoms are located at 1.1244 and 1.1252 Vs highs at 1.1329 and 1.1358. EUR/USD contains a bit more downside then long for longer terms. The driver to EUR are deeply oversold averages from 1.1500’s to 1.1800’s.


USD/CHF and CHF/JPY traded richter scale overbought to richter scale overbought. Both good shorts for a few day trade pips.


GBP/JPY sits overbought and GBP/USD remains oversold with upside potential to 1.3559 for the week and 1.3499 for today’s day trade. GBP/PY overbought and GBP/USD oversold is a problem situation which informs next week, we leave GBP to top rankings.


AUD/USD 0.7309 remains a giant break while NZD/USD 0.6846 sits yet to break. NZD/USD and NZD cross pairs like USD/CHF and EUR/GBP is not the pair to rush and trade until NZD/USD assumes a correct position and range. AUD is not only the better pair to trade but AUD has been steady and profitable over the past 4 weeks and no changes seen over next weeks.

Brian Twomey

Gold Results V USD, AUD, NZD, EUR, CAD, GBP

Posted Gold trades per currency pair this morning were specifically mentioned as day trades to run from the new fall time from 1:30 am EST to 9:00 am EST. Gold priced in USD or any currency shares the commonality as Gold rather than the specific currency. Gold is the main trade.


Every currency priced in Gold traded from lows then highs and back to lows. The only difference was the specific range to each Gold priced in specific currencies. CAD Gold was the clear winner followed by Gold priced in AUD, NZD, USD then EUR and GBP.


Due to known ranges before trade entry, multiple longs and shorts posted. All trades profited 50% of the known ranges by 1 long and 1 short. The initial trades at 1:30 am just missed entry to additional trades and failed to trade or count to totals.


USA Gold


Range 1861.41 – 1877.22 or 15.81 points. 1877.22 to 1858.52 or 18.70 points. Total range 34.51 points.
Long 1866.57, target 1875.91, + 9.34 points. Short 1875.91, target 1871.24. + 4.67 Points.


Total +14.01 points on 34.51 range.


NZD Gold


Range 2648.59 – 2670.37 or 21.78 Points. 2670.37 – 2657.00 or 13.37 points. Total 35.15 points.


Long 2652.73, target 2667.00. +14.27. Short 2667.00, target 2660.36. + 6.64 points.


Total + 20.91 points on 35 point range.


AUD Gold


Range 2537.67 – 2557.51 or 19.84 points. 2557.51 to 2540.14 or 17.37. Total range 37 points.


Long 2541.19, target 2553.90. + 12.71. Short 2553.90, target 2547.54. +6.36 points.


Total +19.07 Points on 37 point total range.


CAD Gold


Range 2331.59 – 2352.23 or 20.65 Points. 2352.23 – 2332.89 or 19.34 Points. Total Range 39.99 points.


Long 2334.73, target 2346.41. + 11.68. Short 2346.41, target 2340.57. + 5.84.


Total + 17.52 points on 39.99 range.


EUR Gold


Range 1637.23 – 1650.96 or 13.73 points. 1650.96 – 1640.29 or 10.67 points. Total range 24.40 points.


Long 1639.03, target 1647.23. +8.2 points. Short 1647.23, target 1643.13. +4.1 points.


Total + 12.30 points on 24.40 point range.


GBP Gold


Range 1384.09 – 1395.72 or 11.63 points. 1395.72 – 1384.70 or 11.02 points. Total range 22.65 Points.


Long 1388.96, target 1395.91. + 6.95 Points. Short 1395.91, target 1392.43. + 3.48 points.


Total +10.43 points on 22.65 range.

Brian Twomey

GOLD Vs EUR, GBP, USD, CAD, AUD, NZD

The Gold price as highlighted many times on these pages is derived from the London, Bullion Markets Association since the 1700’s. Gold and Silver are currencies used since biblical days.


Today’s currencies and prices are derived from either Silver or Gold upon transition to exchange rates. Gold, Silver and metals are actually currencies under a different name and no different from the exchange rates we know today. All are inter related and deeply connected. The names and numbers were changed to protect the innocent.


USD/JPY and Asia for example are Silver currencies. JPY/USD for example is currently priced at 0.0087535 Vs current Silver 0.0397614. Imperative to take JPY/USD to 7 decimal places. South, Central America and Mexican currencies are Silver currencies.


Europe and Euro are Gold Currencies as well as Canada and DXY. Although DXY with an exchange rate at 95.48 or 0.010473 at current prices is arguably a Silver Currency. For 0 Point currencies are distinguished by Silver and 1 Point currencies as Gold.


Gold/ Silver Ratio


Divide Gold by Silver and the Gold/Silver Ratio is established for USD or any currency’s Gold divided by Silver prices.


Gold and Silver yearly Ranges


Gold Yearly Range 1972.80 to 1679.92 or 292 Points or 24 points per month. No excitement here. Silver 1 Year Range 30.09 to 21.38 or 8.71 Points or not even 1 point per month.


August 2021 as Written


Here’ Gold’s lineup: 1510.03 at the 5 year average then 1557.30, 1615.43, 1747.80 and 1839.59. Gold held the 5 year average and traded higher and known since August at the 5 year average. At 292 points per year, how much did the 5 year average change. Hardly if any movements.


Gold Currencies and Day Trades


Today’s day trade prices per currency and levels, ranges and targets below.


Gold/ Silver Ratio 75.12. Range 30 day = 73.45 to 76.17. Range 1 year 80.23 to 64.43.
Gold/ Silver Ratio Trade


Long 74.44 to target 74.93. Long above 75.12 to target 75.51. Short 75.51 to target 75.32.


CHF Gold = 55196.45. Highest priced due to 274 point daily range.


NZD Gold = 2652.73


NZD Gold Trade
Long 2639.46 to target 2646.09. Long above 2652.73 to target 2667.00. Short 2667.00 to target 2660.36.


AUD Gold Trade


AUD 2541.19. Long 2528.48 to target 2534.83. Long above 2541.19 to target 2553.90. Short 2553.90 to target 2547.54.


CAD Gold Trade


CAD 2334.73. Long 2323.05 to target 2328.99. Long above 2334.73 to target 2346.41. Short 2346.41 to target 2340.57.


USD Gold Trade


USD 1866.57. Long 1857.23 to target 1861.90. Long above 1866.57 to target 1875.91. Short 1875.91 to target 1871.24.


EUR Gold Trade


EUR 1639.03. Long 1630.83 1634.93. Long above 1639.03 to target 1647.23. Short 1647.23 to target 1643.13.


GBP Gold


GBP 1388.96. Long 1382.01 to target 1385.48. Long above 1388.96 to target 1395.91. Short 1395.91 to target 1392.43.


USD Gold Vs EUR and CAD


USD Gold 1866 trades between 2 Gold brothers at EUR 1639.03 and above at CAD 2334 yet USD gold is 3rd from the bottom as compared to all Gold Currencies.


Each Gold price in respective currencies offers next supports and resistance levels.


A Gold or Silver price cannot outperform the respective currency price.


DXY Vs USD Gold


Gold supports and resistance points breaks down as 18.68, 14.01, 9.34, 4.67, 2.33.


For true experts, Gold is traded in relation to the respective currency price since the Gold price is located inside the currency price. This way, profits are earned by the exchange rate and Gold price.


USD Gold for example bottom by DXY is located 1771.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: Exchange Rates Predict Exchange Rates

As highlighted Friday, 19 of 28 currency pairs are USD pairs, moves with USD and driven strictly by USD while 9 currencies are Non USD. Of 28 currencies, 19 contain exchange rates as 1 point and 9 are distinguished by 0 point. This allows currency prices to factor its interrelationships as marriages yet also to divorce as currency prices separate and contract from each other.


How are present currency market prices running. Simple check by calculator. Tops and bottoms are most significant points. Today’s exchange rate associations may or may not comport to the same currency pairs in the future. Price and price only is the dictator.


Note for example below EUR/USD, NZD/USD and NZD/CHF equates to CAD/JPY. Normally, the relationship informs to NZD/USD and NZD/CHF tops and bottoms and perfect trades but instead factors to CAD/JPY. As NZD/USD gets moving again, CAD/JPY will be eliminated to again factor to NZD.


Overall, weekly trades are factored for interested.


EUR/USD minus NZD/CHF and EUR/USD minus NZD/USD = CAD/JPY range 89.67 to 92.41 or 274 pips.


USD/GBP or the opposite from GBP/USD = AUD/USD top. EUR/CAD divide 2 then AUD/USD bottom. Next top above USD/GBP then EUR/AUD divide 2. AUDUSD = 0.7100’s, 0.7400’s and 0.7700’s.


EUR/GBP = GBP/CAD divide 2. So EUR/GBP = 0.8507, and 10 and 15 year averages at 0.8426 and 0.8401.


NZD/JPY = EUR/NZD divide 2 = NZD/JPY top Vs CHF/GBP for NZD/JPY bottom. CHF/GBP is opposite pair to GBP/CHF.


NZD/JPY 81.18 to 80.98 .


EUR/NZD = USD/CAD divide 2 = EUR/NZD significant point. GBP/CHF divide 2 = EUR/NZD bottom.
EUR/NZD 1.6273 to 1.6174.


EUR/USD 1.1727 top = GBP/EUR or opposite as EUR/GBP.
EUR/NZD Vs GBP/NZD exchange rate spreads 2781 pips. EUR/NZD or GBP/NZD is either overbought or oversold by 181 pips.


CAD/CHF = USD/GBP. CAD/CHF currently trades below USD/GBP. 0.7456 to 0.7346.


CHF/NZD or opposite from NZD/CHF = EUR/AUD bottom
CHF/AUD or opposite from AUD/CHF = EUR/CAD top.


AUD/EUR = NZD/CHF bottom. 0.6410.
AUD/EUR trades below AUD/USD.


USD/NZD or opposite from NZD/USD = EUR/CAD bottom.
USD/AUD or opposite from AUD/USD = GBP/USD top.


CAD/CHF 0.7346 Vs AUD/USD 0.7329. Watch crossover.
NZD/USD divide by 2 = AUD/NZD top.


AUD/USD divide 2 then divide 2 = GBP/NZD top.


EUR/CHF Vs AUD/NZD. What’s the difference. CHF/EUR offers AUD/CAD top and NZD/EUR offers another AUD/CAD top.


Both CHF/EUR and NZD/AUD leads directly to GBP/NZD.


The week.


USD/JPY is overbought for the week and overbought long term while USD/CHF and USD/CAD also sits overbought. The trifecta is rarely in weekly agreement.


USD/JPY from last week still targets 113.30 from break below at 113.71. Shorts this week are located at 114.21 and 114.29.


GBP is the best category to trade as GBP/USD and cross pairs begin the week deeply oversold.
GBP weekly trades rank as GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/AUD, GBP/CHF, GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD. Only difference from last week is GBP/CHF was last and switches places with GBP/NZD.


GBP/AUD is the best trade vs EUR/AUD for the 2nd week running.
EUR/USD begins oversold with caution to longs at 1.1492.


USD/CAD last week was dictated by 1.2451 as CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF would follow. CAD/JPY assumes this week’s leadership position Vs USD/CAD and CAD/CHF as USD/CAD and CAD/CHF will follow.


NZD/USD and cross pairs remain last to weekly rankings for the 4th week running. NZD/JPY is the best from NZD cross pairs however GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY and EUR/JPY are preferred. GBP/JPY is the clear leader to JPY cross pairs.


EUR/USD Vs USD/CNY


Correlations ran last week at + 0.88 or 88%. Correlations run this week at + 0.92 or 92%. The positive correlation informs to distance as a positive correlation reveals EUR/USD and USD/CNY prices won’t travel far from each other. The relationship is negative due to EUR Vs USD as USD/CNY and EUR/USD will trade in the opposite direction to each other but not far.

EUR/USD ranged 175 pips last week to USD/CNY 308.


The Correlation must break down to factor ranges and to understand the relationship. USD/CNY Vs EUR/USD factors as 6.4093 to 6.4343. EUR/USD factors as 1.1719 to 1.1603. No changes since last week.

EUR/USD dropped from 1.1607 to 1.1400’s and USD/CNY rose to 6.4098 then dropped to 6.3700’s.


Shortest term, EUR/USD is 161 pips off its range while USD/CNY is off kilter by 296 pips. Both EUR/USD and USD/CNY are deeply oversold to begin the week.


The assumption is USD/EM and EUR/EM correlations run high and positive and explains why both run weekly to oversold, overbought and neutral over the past 2 months. The ranges are off kilter. Correlations must drop in order for USD/EM and EUR/EM to trade more correctly to ranges.

Brian Twomey