In 2016 and 2017 to highlight the 45th year of the currency free float from January 1972, a series of research articles were published along with an article to market turning point years.
Market periods historically since the BOE was first established in 1694 as the first central bank last 50 years. 50 years means 4 quadrants of 12 1/2 years. But 50 years are biblical as in Genesis 41 for 7 Rich Years and 7 lean years and Leviticus 25 to mark the 49th year.
4 quadrants of 50 years highlighted by each quadrant of 12 1/2 years refers to 1st quadrant periods as trending, good markets, all profit.
2nd quadrant of 12 1/2 years are market crashes.
3rd quadrant of 12 1/2 years are ranging and traded markets.
4th quadrant of 12 1/2 years represent the end as governments are bankrupt and engage in creative destruction to remain solvent. As the 48th year is upon us, its always to little and much to late.
The forecast ability to 50 years, 4 quadrants and 12 1/2 years historically is perfectly accurate.
The question was for 2016 and 2017 when is the end and what’s next. Will markets become trade able markets in the next market period. Based on previous Gold and Slver standards since 1694, the answer is no to traded markets nor to 28 years of 1% exchange rate movements under Bretton Woods.
The best traded markets in 326 years based on the current experiment of interest rates is upon us but is now over and gone. I always believed the IMF’s program of SDR’s would become the new market period but this assumption contains many problems as not all nations are members of the SDR program yet all nations exchange rates trade.
One aspect is certain. As this 4th period ends, new 1st period begins to reign prosperity and safe and sound markets in whatever form comes next.
Watch for central banks to meet to arrange agreements to next period of markets for the next 50 years.
The articles, prescient as usual.
EUR/USD and 50 Year Periods
50 year market periods derive from 4’s because the BOE wa established in 1694 therefore next 50 year periods run to years 1744, 1794, 1844, 1894, , 1944 and 1994. Year 1944 was vital and typical historically as a new period because Bretton Woods 1% ranges in exchange rates were established. View number 4 in relation to 5 as the first start of the counting system and moving averages in multiples of 5.
From roughly 12 year increments broken down into 4 quadrants, the 1st period from 1994 runs to 2006. As expected in historic parallels in 1st periods, prosperity and trends become the dominant theme. From 2003 to 2006, economic boom times dominated and EUR overall in the 1st period went on a rampage higher from 0.8200 to about 1.3300’s.
To define the current 2nd period, add 12 years to 2006 and 2018 becomes the next vital inflection point. Ironically, its an important election year in the United States. Historic 2nd periods are corrective from 1st period trends and 2nd periods experience crashes and / or market changes. The 2008 crash was 2nd period. The free float in currencies was seen directly on the verge of the 2nd and 3rd periods which ran from 1944 to 1994.
Taken from 1972, year 2008 and the crash hit exactly on the 2 and 3 quadrant point. Add 12 to 2008 and the result is 2020. The larger dominant quadrant from 1994 informs 2018 is a crucial year and taken from the free float then 2020 becomes vital to mark the next 12 year period.
In current 2017 marks indecision year just as 2007 was an indecision year. Markets historically in every previous period in endings and beginnings experience indecision years. Markets lack a clue, trend, substance or direction in indecision years. Possibly we can view markets as a restructure and / or preparation for the new period ahead.
The import to today was define 2018 and what’s ahead due to the 323 year perfect accuracy in 50 year periods. Two persons understand periods, the great Martin Armstrong and my old college friend David Knox Barker.
Barker has been studying and trading K, Wall and Kondrontieff waves, short and long periods and business cycles continuously since the early 1980’s. Only Barker could write a master’s thesis on Waves and biblical histories from Leviticus 25. Barker today is touted as one of the world’s foremost experts on waves and cycles.
Market Turning Point Years
As periods, the official United States 1982 Gold Report documents approximately 50 year intervals between Gold and free float currency duration and dates to the 1500’s. If the December 1971 Smithsonian Agreement measured as the free float commencement date, the current term enters not only year 45 but possibly market shifts and currency pair realignments may conceivably be viewed as 12.5 years when separated in four quadrants.
As such, possible turning points since 1971 would occur in 1983, 1995, 2007, 2019 and 2021 as the 50 year end point. From January 1972, possible turning points would transpire in 1984, 1996, 2008, 2020 and 2022 as the 50 year end point.
Predominant market arrangements endured from the 1971 Smithsonian Agreement to the 1985 Plaza Accords then from the 1987 Louvre Accords to the December 1994 Mexican Peso crisis. Market crashes since 1971 materialized in 1987, 1994, 1997 Thai Baht, 2001 and 2008. Year 2008 qualified as a turning point and its possible the crash was the catalyst to switch EUR/JPY from EUR/USD to USD/JPY.
EUR/USD and Market Periods
The 2008 crash was not only seen long in advance but its most important because it marked the final period of the 50 year financial cycle which began in January 1972. Periods in 50 years of financial markets are almost ordained from the heavens and marked in the Bible in many instances such as 7 rich years and 7 lean years. Jubilee years are 49 years and after 49 the system of money and exchange reverts to a different period inside a new system. Markets and central bankers can’t fight the system since its perfection as a prediction is perfect since establishment of the BOE as the first central bank in 1694. What we’ve seen from central bankers since 2008 is disaster policy after disaster policy against zero results.
From 2008 and enter of the Last Quadrant of 4 in a 50 year period, current Quadrant goes from 2008 to Maximum 12 1/2 years. This places the end period of this cycle at 2020. As markets draw near to 2020, more danger exists to the final crash. Markets begin and end in crashes then the system reverts to another period. Market Volatility as well is almost ordained based on the cycle period. Current volatility is the lowest in 50 years and again warns of danger because prices lack direction and policy purpose.
While the next crash is almost ordained by the number 50 and its miraculous prediction, Quadrant 1 in the new period always marks great prosperity and lasts as much as 12 1/2 years. But markets and prosperity become overbought so Quadrant 2 historically marks corrections for as much as 12 1/2 years. What “as much as 12 1/2 years ” means is the number 7 and 10 are vital to measure as a guide the last point at 12 1/2. The current period and year is in the severe danger zone. The positive aspect to the final period is prosperity lies ahead for the world and markets but the type of trade able market is unknown.
How markets arrive at crashes and periods is government debt is unable to sustain itself.
Brian Twomey
