FX Weekly Commentary and EM Trades

EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD begins the week overbought. Same story as last week. USD/CHF and USD/CAD begins the week deeply oversold. Same story as last week. USD/JPY went from perfect neutral last week to overbought this week. USD/JPY is clearly divergent to its counterpart USD/CHF.


GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY begins the week overbought while AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY holds neutral positions. Same story as last week. AUD/JPY closed last week at 85.11 and 85.05 this week. Neutrality held.


EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD, AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD are deeply oversold along with USD/CAD. Same story as last week.


Next comes divergent problems.


EUR/NZD is oversold while GBP/NZD is overbought. What does this forecast to NZD/USD.


GBP/AUD is deeply overbought while EUR/AUD is neutral. How does AUD/USD handle this situation. EUR/AUD higher must break 1.5635 and 1.5654 from its close at 1.5599.


EUR/CHF, GBP/CHF, AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF closed directly on vital high/low levels while CAD/CHF sits at overbought.


GBP/USD sits neutral to overbought while overbought to GBP/JPY. Watch GBP/JPY 154.30.


Problem pairs this week remains the same as last week as follows: EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, GBP/AUD, AUD/NZD, GBP/NZD. Current levels are far to high. The same can be said for an assortment of currency prices to levels far to low. USD/CAD and the CAD cross pairs are excellent candidates.


DXY closed at 90.28 and 90.23 last week. Same story as last week. DXY ranges from 90.24 to 91.57 then 92.89 then 93.70. No changers in 3 weeks.


EUR/USD must break for lower, 1.2053, 1.2041 and 1.2028. Above 1.2190, 1.2258 and 1.2327
Overall, currency markets contain 2 problems. USD is miles to low, EUR/USD and non USD pairs to high and ranges remain deeply compressed. Without progress to current prices, ranges remain constricted and weekly prices go nowhere.


Currency prices not only lack uniformity but 5, 10 and 15 year averages assist to disjointed moves. Current markets are treacherous as currency pair trade selection is most vital and far different from uniform and most profitable markets in 2018, 2019 and parts of 2020.


From 18 currency pairs traded every week, 9 are viable trades to include only 4 cross pairs.
USD in the EM market this week sits at deep oversold and the same story as last week. Ranges are not only severely compressed but EM markets have been dead over the past month to trade 4 and 500 pips. Rare day for EM.


The changes this week is a deeply oversold USD/HUF, overbought USD/MYR and oversold USD/RON which is not unusual, USD/RUB begins the week deep oversold as well as USD/CZK. Both are range currency pairs rather than trends.


Wide rangers USD/TRY sits at deep overbought while oversold to USD/BRL. View USD/BRL as the same pair to USD/CAD as its close proximity. USD/BRL Vs USD/CAD Correlations are running +68%.


USD/ZAR sits at fairly neutral while the 6 handle currencies, USD/CNY, USD/DKK and USD/HRK are massively oversold.


EM Trades


USD/BRL Long 5.2692 and 5.2678 to target 5.3351
USD/CNY long 6.4248 to target 6.4575


USD/CZK long anywhere or 20.88 to target 21.43
USD/DKK long 6.1185 to target 6.1456


USD/HRK Long anywhere or 6.1864 to target 6.2289
USD/HUF Long anywhere or 292.10 to target 295.37


USD/MYR Short 4.1276 to target 4.1148.
USD/PLN Long Anywhere or 3.7308 to target 3.7597


USD/RON Long Anywhere or 4.0528 to target 4.0744
USD/RUB Long 73.92 and 73.85 to target 74.64


USD/TRY Short 8.4572 and 8.4748 to target 8.3513

Brian Twomey

The Moorad Choudhry Global Banking Series

My long time friend Mr. Moorad is an absolute God of global banking and markets for many decades. As head of banks treasury departments and long time professor, book author and academic papers, Mr. Moorad current trains students for top positions in banks, treasury departments and other market locations through his school btm.org.

Students earn certificates to qualify for top positions and instructors are Mr. Moorad and the giants and most qualified market professionals of our time. Mr. Moorad is not only a gentleman and scholar but a very nice and decent man.

Mr. Moorad published my EUR/JPY paper. See also Mr. Moorad’s book on Yield Curves and his many books on the inner workings of banks, markets and trading.

Mr. Moorad informs yesterday, he would’ve published my book on the 1870 Election and he will publish any future books. He wants to publish my interest rate model for daily and 24 hour trades but as much as I would like to honor his request, I’m frankly petrified to do so for many reasons. The model is my invention with who knows, 6 months of time and effort to figure it out then perfect it. Trust these words, Welles Wilder and RSI has nothing on my interest rate model.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD Vs USD/CAD 1.2100 Crossovers and Overbought EURJPY

EUR/USD current 1.2112 Vs USD/CAD current 1.2156. Same exchange rate yet two distinctly separate currency pairs. Correlations are running -42% and not bad but could be much better to a further negative distance since both pairs are total opposites. Improved could be -80% to -90%.


A crossover to EUR/USD and USD/CAD occurred and for today, the crossover was located at 1.2132. USD/CAD traveled higher to a high today at 1.2177 while EUR/USD traded to lows at 1.2084. EUR/USD profited from 1.2132 +48 pips while USD/CAD +43 pips or +91 total pips.


Opposite correlation demanded both trade negative to each other yet an eyeball view would automatically know USD in the first exchange rate position Vs EUR in the same first position would trade opposite.


From a day trade perspective from 2:30 am EST, USD/CAD actually profited 13 pips while EUR/USD banked 15 pips or 28 total pips. Its still early for the day trade to end at ECB’s 10:00 am EST however the USD/CAD Vs EUR/USD crossover happened at Asia 12:00 PM EST.


If presented both exchange rates without the formal name as USD/CAD or EUR/USD, no difference exists and how would we know.


USD/CAD today contains 5 vital day trade levels as follows: 1.2101, 1.2102, 1.2118, 1.2193 and 1.2224.


EUR/USD today contains 5 vital day trade levels as follows: 1.2041, 1.2043, 1.2068, 1.2132 and 1.2163.


USD/CAD 1.2101 = EUR/USD 1.2163
USD/CAD 1.2193 = EUR/USD 1.2132


The actual crossover today is located at 1.2132 for longs and shorts. The message from USD/CAD and EUR/USD is how close is the EUR Vs USD relationship traded in today’s markets and reflected in other currency pair prices. The EUR/USD Vs USD/CAD gap will eventually widen considerably.


A longer term perspective is USD/CAD at current 1.2151 and GBP/USD at 1.4065 or an exorbitant 1914 pips. Either GBP/USD trades short or USD/CAD must trade higher to compress the gap.


JPY Cross Pairs Overbought.


What does overbought actually mean. EUR/USD trades current 1.2115 and EUR/JPY 132.46. EUR/JPY trades miles above EUR/USD. At EUR/JPY 1.3246 and EUR/USD 1.2115, EUR/JPY still trades miles above EUR/USD.


EUR/JPY 132.46 Vs USD/JPY 109.32. EUR/JPY trades miles above USD/JPY. At EUR/JPY 1.3246 and USD/JPY at 1.0932, EUR/JPY either way its viewed, trades above EUR/USD and USD/JPY.


The correct position to EUR/JPY and all JPY cross pairs is to trade between EUR/USD and USD/JPY since EUR/JPY is derived from EUR/USD and USD/JPY. EUR/USD X USD/JPY = EUR/JPY. EUR/JPY must trade below EUR/USD at 1.2100’s or EUR/USD must trade above 1.3200’s. Same story to GBP/JPY at 153.00’s.


EUR/JPY is not only mis positioned but the mis location explains JPY cross pair range problems.

EUR/JPY doesn’t have a clue as it receives wrong signals to traded prices from EUR/USD and USD/JPY. If EUR/JPY traded correctly between EUR/USD and USD/JPY then EUR/JPY would experience great trades as the relations becomes uniform and correctly balanced.

Short only is the way forward until EUR/JPY balances. At 132.00;s could last for many months by today’s slow price speed trade standards.

Brian Twomey

GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD Long Term Targets

GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD not only completes the CAD category but also nearly concludes long term views to 24 of 28 currency pairs. Remaining are EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF, AUD/NZD and GBP/AUD.


For AUD/NZD and EUR/CHF, we won’t waste our valuable time as nothing ever exist as viable trades within both pairs. EUR/GBP is also wasted time however its required as insights to GBP/USD. Current EUR/GBP is oversold which means long EUR/GBP and short GBP/USD as short term trades until a full EUR/GBP view is evaluated.


Known in regards to GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD are correlations to USD/CAD at current +76% and +98% for EUR/CAD. Both GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD transformed as USD pairs, deeply oversold and in buy drop mode.

GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD are clearly the better trades to AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD as GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD contain sufficient ranges worthy of trades and profits.


GBP/CAD driving averages to current prices are located at 1.7206, 1.7217, 1.7274, 1.7300 exactly then 1.7511. All averages are not only massively oversold but bottoms are upon us. Bottom and oversold contain 2 separate indications to reveal the same conclusion.


GBP/CAD strategy is long only especially at or below 1.7016 to target 1.7077, 1.7096, 1.7099, 1.7108, 1.7139. 1.7178. Then short to target lower levels at 1.7077 and 1.7096. Continue the strategy for months to come. Overall, wait for the break at 1.7300 for longs and a new 211 pip trade range.


EUR/CAD


Below for EUR/CAD exists 1.4500 exactly, 1.4487 and 1.4444 at the 10 year average.

Note 1.4500 and GBP/CAD 1.7300. Don’t allow 00 to contain any significant connotation as 00 is just a number without meaning or purpose except it happens to fall as an average.


Higher for EUR/CAD must cross above 1.4749 and 1.4788. The range then becomes 1.4788 to 1.4952 and 1.4982.

Above 1.4982 targets 1.5076 and 1.5108.

EUR/CAD averages are higher than current price however higher averages at deep oversold will drive EUR/CAD higher. EUR/CAD like GBP/CAD contains a buy drop mode.

Targets are located at 1.4618 and 1.4747.

Brian Twomey

EM Trade Results

For the EM week, only targets and closes were offered.


In the medium range currencies, USD/DKK and USD/HRK were clear winners with 600 and 700 pip ranges. Wide rangers USD/BRL at 800 pips, USD/TRY at 2200 and USD/ZAR at 1800 completes overall ranges. Poor performers include USD/HUF at 300 pips, USD/PLN at 300, USD/RON 300. USD/CNY at 500 pips outperformed.


To exclude wide rangers USD/BRL, USD/TRY and USD/ZAR, overall EM ranges over the past 4 and 5 weeks has been dead to performances. USD/PLN, USD/RON, USD/BRL, USD/DKK and USD/HRK should trade minimum 1000 pip weekly ranges. USD/HUF at 300 pips should trade easily 6 and 700 pip ranges.


USD/DKK, USD/HRK and USD/CNY all contain a 6.000 exchange rate and essentially are the same currency pairs under the banner of a different nation yet movements are exactly the same. Together, all offer 3 of the exact same trades.


USD/BRL close 5.2374, targets 5.3975,
highs 5.3184


USD/CNY Close 6.4325, target 6.4681,
highs 6.4570, Lows 6.4070


USD/DKK Close 6.1137, target 6.1650,
highs 6.1627, Lows 6.1038


USD/HRK Close 6.1941, target 6.2573,
highs 6.2402, Lows 6.1796


USD/HUF Close 294.70, target 298.59,
highs 296.51, Lows 293.44


USD/PLN Close 3.7426, target 3.7633 and 3.7727,
highs 3.7734, Lows 3.7355


USD/RON Close 4.0503, target 4.0715,
highs 4.0846, Lows 4.0446


USD/RUB Close 73.79, target 74.70 and 74.96
Highs 74.68, Lows 73.56


USD/TRY short 8.2818 and 8.3155, target 8.1470
Actual 8.2919, Lows 8.2172 +800 pips


USD/ZAR Close 14.0593, target 14.1871
Highs 14.1430, Lows 13.9577

Brian Twomey

AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD

Consistent to view long term targets for the current 3 to 6 month period, horrendous currency pairs AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD are next.


Both AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD suffer from severe range compression. AUD/CAD is the better pair to trade but not by much.

Both NZD/CAD and AUD/CAD are deeply oversold but blocked to move higher by solid averages.

While NZD/CAD and USD/CAD correlate to USD/CAD at +83% and +73%, the correlation to USD/CAD is preventing USD/CAD to move higher.


Massive oversold USD/CAD must break the correlation to AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD to free float and allow USD/CAD to trade correctly and meet oversold targets.


AS AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD are the top pairs to overall NZD and AUD prices, blocked averages and range compression to NZD/CAD and AUD/CAD is enough to contain NZD/USD and AUD/USD to move significantly higher.


AUD/CAD from current 0.9451 to higher must break 0.9492, 0.9568, 0.9582, 0.9587, 0.9609 and 0.9621. Oversold AUD/CAD must trade to at least 0.9571 or 120 pips higher. Below, 0.9439 and 0.9356 hold as absolute bottoms.


Weekly trades, long 0.9446 to target 0.9557 and 0.9576.


NZD/CAD


NZD/CAD from current 0.8759 is trapped between 0.8691 to 0.8805 and 0.8875.

Above 0.8875 then next comes 0.8913 and 0.8978 at the 5 year average.

Most vital to NZD/CAD is the 10 year average at 0.8789 then 0.8691. NZD/CAD’s price is located in a horrible position.


Weekly Trade: Long 0.8741 to target 0.8826 then 0.8847.

Brian Twomey

The Day Trade: Support, Resistance, Entries and Targets

As daily interest rates change, supports, resistance, entries and targets must adjust to align not only to day trades but to follow, know and maintain trades with central banks and sophisticated traders programmed to interest rate trade systems. View the pre 2016 ECB Fix at 8:30 am to understand how fast and sophisticated trade systems moved prices under perfect price knowledge.


The Fed Funds rate has been locked into 0.06 for the past 6 trade days then 0.05 to 0.07. At 0.06 to market prices is neutral t0 0.05 and 0.07. This means the best market moves will be seen at 0.05 and 0.07 Fed Funds.


As a 2000 year old instrument, the currency price is the oldest financial instrument on the planet and invented before interest rates, stocks and commodities. The individual currency per nation transformed from Gold, silver and metals then given a name and price.


As stocks, interest rates and commodities materialized to form markets, those prices were based on the currency price. The currency price per nation then became a prediction to all market prices within each nation and remains so to this very day. The difference is a decimal point.


The day trade is by far the most complicated trade to master and perfect.


From the article Fed Funds 0.05 to 0.07 last week, here’s EUR/USD downside supports since May 4.


Supports today run 55 and 39 pips


Yesterday 47 vs 39 pips
May 7 = 55 and 39 pips


May 6 = 57 and 42 pips.
May 5 = 56 and 40 pips.


Here’s your lessons direct from central banks.


Downside supports remain usually for 24 hours then an adjustment is required. A big price move may require an additional price adjustment.


Upside and downside prices are factored completely different. Each is a separate computation.
Daily NZD/USD upside normally contains within its price path an exchange rate ending in 5.

Today’s NZD/USD upside target is located at 0.7270 and 0.7265. Downside prices lack a 5 number due to separate calculations.


Ranges hardly ever change but its the structure within the day trade price path that changes. Now calculations are done by hand.


AUD/USD for example, subtract 19 pips and a support price is known. EUR/JPY subtract 33 pips. Everyday is the same old thing to support calculations.


A central bank may issue the same currency price under the same set of interest rates which means no changes to supports. The same price issued under a new set of interest rates requires re calculation to know new supports. EUR/USD is the example.


Sometimes supports are close together and other days, supports are far and wide. GBP/JPY is the best example.


Entries and targets change with central bank prices. Currently, at least 15 central bank price changes exist. This doesn’t include the individual central bank price for those central banks kind enough to offer a price. Not all central banks are transparent.


As new prices are offered by central banks, new calculations are required for entries and targets. Previous entries and targets become completely irrelevant.


Today’s EUR/USD contains only 5 values pertinent to the day trade as follows: 1.2067, 1.2073, 1.2089, 1.2158 and 1.2189. All other values are minor and for the most part, irrelevant.


When 10:am EST hits then a total re calculation is required for new entries and targets. Note the times prices move or not move.


Yields are classified as an interest rate but holds no value to the day trade. USD/JPY up and yields up maybe a true statement but which yields are actually correlated as USD/JPY price drivers. Not all yields are the same but rather completely different and operate as separate entities to the currency price.


Yields are seen as traded instruments while interest rates are unseen and not known.


Forward Exchange rates for the day trade are factored by FX Points as the differential between two nation interest rates. Currently, USD/CAD at 0.1800 and Fed Funds at 0.06 factors are Forward exchange rates to 0.0013 and 0.0012 pips by Spot + FX Points divide by 1000.


A good assessment is to impart exchange rate intervals are running today at 12 and 13 pips.


Only 5 points are vital to today’s USD/CAD: 1.2047, 1.2053, 1.2069, 1.2138 and 1.2169.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, GBP/JPY

From long term targets, GBP/USD’s big breaks are located at 1.4308 and 1.3875 or 433 pips then 1.3801. GBP/USD is not only massively overbought but short only is the strategy moving forward.


GBP/USD shorts are confirmed by an oversold EUR/GBP and correlations running at -95%..

EUR/GBP big points are located from 0.8411 to 0.8710 or 299 pips. That’s 299 EUR/GBP and 433 Vs GBP/USD. Above 0.8710 then comes 0.8762.


NZD/USD at 0.7305 is located a 20 year top and 0.7345 at the 10 year average. Don’t wait for 0.7300’s as NZD/USD is done at 0.7257 and targets easily 0.7219 then 0.7182.


AUD/USD top is located at 0.7867 and lower to severe overbought targets 0.7736 upon a break at 0.7782.


EUR/USD Holds higher by 1.2057 and 1.2028. Good targets for a deep overbought and problem pair is 1.2064 and 1.2041.


Longs for above pairs are not only impossible but a suicide mission.


From weekly commentary, GBP/CAD Long anywhere to target 1.7116 then 1.7178. GBP/CAD from 1.6951 close traded to 1.7132 or +181 pips. One trade, 2 days.


JPY cross pairs remains overbought many weeks later and longs again are impossible. Shorts contain a long way to go from current prices. GBP/JPY approaches 154.35.


Watch USD/JPY at 107.97. A break below then changes the USD/JPY Vs EUR/USD relationship as both pairs will trade correctly on either side of vital averages. The relationship has been offside for many months.


Undecided correlations to JPY cross pairs then must either fully correlate to USD/JPY or EUR/USD but not both as is the present circumstance.

Brian Twomey

The Election of 1870 by Brian Twomey

Book version now on Amazon, Kindle follows tomorrow

https://photos.google.com/share/AF1QipPMGPsBjqJfnOZ6TlQK5wmWiz-6hNiXFvbTKIG_qrGkC1dQCjQg042dtF1xYkfffg?key=Y05zX0Y4VDV5alBxWWRRSWJadVRkQm1jNlhKdHJ3

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Brian Twomey

FX Weekly Commentary and EM Trades

The only difference to currency markets from last week is Non USD pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD begins the week severely overbought. Same story as last week, EUR/USD remains a problem currency pair.


Not only is EUR/USD current levels not correct but EUR/USD lost Correlational control to its cross pairs. EUR/USD improved Vs EUR/JPY at +64% but USD/JPY at +97% should offer EUR/JPY price paralysis to movements. While EUR/USD sits at deep overbought, noise informs a lower EUR/USD only increases price pressures to move higher. EUR/USD’s price normalizes at high 1.2400’s and currently trades between 10 and 15 year averages from 1.2058 to 1.2603. Expect EUR/USD to maintain problem status for week’s to come.


EUR/USD to EUR/GBP correlates -32%, GBP/USD runs -95%. Note 90’s to correlations.


Massively oversold USD/CAD 10 year average is located at 1.2086, EUR/CAD 14 year at 1.4543, AUD/CAD 5 year at 0.9582 and NZD/CAD 10 year at 0.8788.

Not only are CAD cross pairs deeply oversold as the same story last week but USD/CAD owns the cross pairs by Correlation standards. EUR/CAD runs +98%, NZD/CAD +83%, GBP/CAD at 76% and AUD/CAD at +73%.


USD/CAD not only owns 4 cross pairs but ownership informs the cross pairs are USD pairs particularly when correlations to EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD run solid negatives.


Last week GBP/CAD closed at 1.6967 and massive oversold. Trade instructions were long anywhere. GBP/CAD rose 156 pips to 1.7123. This week, GBP/CAD closed at 1.6951 and massively oversold. Trade instructions this week remain the same as last week. Long anywhere to target 1.7116 then 1.7178.


Neutral USD/JPY appears to maintain correlation ownership to AUD/JPY +98% yet +97% to AUD/USD. NZD/JPY at +96% also Correlates to NZD/USD at +94%.


CAD/JPY +97%, CHF/JPY +89% and +98% to GBP/JPY yet GBP/USD also correlates to GBP/JPY at 98% to offer price paralysis and the same situation as EUR/JPY.


USD/JPY owns CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY cross pairs which means the cross pairs are USD currencies. The remainder JPY cross pairs require significant movements to change correlations to USD/JPY or non USD.


Deeply oversold USD/CHF Correlates to GBP/CHF at +73% yet GBP/USD at +94%, AUD/CHF correlates to USD/CHF at +68% yet +94% to AUD/USD, NZD/CHF correlates to USD/CHF at +61% yet +90% to NZD/USD.


The viable trade category this week is USD/CAD and Cross pairs as well as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD.


Problem pairs this week includes: EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, GBP/NZD, AUD/NZD and GBP/AUD. Watch GBP/AUD in particular as its price is ready to explode.


Problem pairs for EM includes: USD/DKK, USD/HRK, USD/HUF, USD/INR, USD/KRW, USD/MYR, USD/PHP, USD/PLN, USD/RON, USD/RUB, USD/SEK, USD/SGD and USD/BGN.


DXY close at 90.23 resides 1 pip below its range from 90.24 to 91.57 then 92.89.


Gold next break is located at 1846.05 then 1870.01 and top at 1937.62. Gold strategy is short rallies to target much lower prices upon a break at 1693.27.


The 10 year yield held its range for the past 3 months from 1.3305 to 1.8448.


EM


USD in the EM space sits at extreme oversold.


Oversold USD/BRL from 5.2376 targets 5.3975
USD/CNY from 6.4325 targets 6.4681


USD/DKK from 6.1137 targets 6.1650
USD/HRK from 6.1941 targets 6.2573


USD/HUF from 294.70 targets 298.59
USD/MYR from 4.1120. Short 4.1174 and 4.1188 to target 4.1086.


USD/PLN from 3.7426 targets easily 3.7633 then 3.7727
USD/RON from 4.0503 targets easily 4.0648 then 4.0715


USD/RUB from 73.7955 targets 74.78 then 74.96
USD/TRY from 8.2399. Short 8.2818 and 8.3155 to target 8.1470.


USD/ZAR from 14.0593 close. Entry 14.0447 and 14.0210 to target 14.1871.

Brian Twomey

Brian Twomey, The Election of 1870

The Election of 1870 now for sale on Amazon and wherever else. No profit is involved in this book but I didn’t take on the 1 year project for money. I knew this from the start. The book is short 101 pages yet jam packed with information, data, maps, South Carolina General Assembly and Congressional Information related to South Carolina.

I’m 10 years a student of Political Science with undergrad and graduate degrees and 25 years as a Political Science college instructor.

Brian Twomey

EM Weekly Trade Results

USDRON Short 4.1012 and 4.1039 to target 4.0881

Actual 4.1119 to 4.0881 Perfect

4.1039 to 4.0881 +158 pips

Short below 4.0862 to target 4.0749.

4.0862 to 4.0806 + 56 pips

Total 214 pips

USDHUF Long 298.94 and 298.23 to target 300.71

Lows 297.71, Highs 300.89

298.32 to 300.71 +239 pips

USDHRK Long 6.2655 and 6.2619 to target 6.2910

Actual 6.2543, Highs 6.2909 Perfect

+366 pips

USDDKK long 1.1684 and 6.1617 to target 6.1886

Lows 6.1588, Highs 6.2037

From 6.1617 to 6.1886 + 269 Pips

USDBRL Long 5.4240 and 5.4170 to target 5.4727

Lows 5.3749, Highs 5.4852

500 drop, 600 rise

Washout trade Yet +600 pips

USDPLN 3.7930 break below targets 3.7709 and above 3.8101 then 3.8156

Actual 3.7930 to 3.7662 +223 pips

Long 3.7930 to target 3.8101 & 3.8156

Actual 3.7930 to 3.8226

To target +226 pips

2 trades +449 Pips

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD Day Trade for BOE

GDP in the UK last quarter, I just don’t recollect. Inflation is another statistic I just don’t know. How about stimulus, I don’t know. On the vaccine front, again I just don’t know. How about money supply or Interest rates, I don’t have a clue.


To know and understand is to run data by entering one number at a time to fully comprehend GDP, Inflation, money supply, stimulus and vaccines without a guess or false assumptions to present and future conditions. No easy method exists except to devote 1 hour to GDP, 1 hour to Inflation. Then no mysteries exist however no interest prevails to know the data.


Sonia trades at 0.0509 and the Sonia Compound Index trades 101.3393. And this assists today’s GBP? Not one iota of assistance.


GBP/USD


We’re short 1.3971 and 1.3962 to target 1.3909.

Then short 1.3899 to target 1.3848 and 1.3831

Then long 1.3848 and 1,3831 to target 1.3852.

From 1.3971 to 1.3909 = 62 pips.

From 1.3899 to1.3848 = 41 pips.


From 1.3899 to 1.3831 = 68 pips


Most vital below 1.3852 and 1,3835 so says the BOE. Any price above or below long and short entry points represents free money and given freely by the BOE.

Brian Twomey

EUR/CAD Long Term Targets

As written in the weekly commentary, drivers to this week’s currency markets are GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD, AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD. For GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD both correlate to USD/CAD at +96% and +97%. EUR/CAD correlates to EUR/USD at -48% which means EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD transformed as USD pairs.


USD/CAD remains deeply oversold along with EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD, AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD. As instructed for long GBP/CAD anywhere to target 1.7230 achieved 154 pips from Sunday’s open at 1.6967. EUR/CAD from 1.4762 achieved 73 pips but failed to break higher at reported 1.4835 then reversed.


Higher for EUR/CAD must break 1.4757, 1.4798, 1.4964 and 1.4968. Most vita to EUR/CAD is 1.4964 at the 5 year average. EUR/CAD broke below 1.4757 and now trades from 1.4757 to 1.4543 then 1.4442. USD/CAD important support in comparison is located at 1.2083, the 10 year average

.
The only trade strategy for USD/CAD and Other Currency / CAD is long due to massive oversold. Any drops represent falling prices into deeper oversold.


DXY from current 91.24 trades between 90.24 and 91.57. DXY for the week traded 91.43 to 90.87. DXY break above 91.57 assists to higher USD/CAD and in turn Other Currency/ CAD.

Brian Twomey

Brian Twomey The Election of 1870

Finally, nearly 1 year later to intense research and writing, the short 101 page book is 1 or 2 days away from sales at Amazon and wherever. The book was not intended for profit nor will the book earn profits. The intent was publication in an academic journal but I far surpassed the word count requirements so no choice existed except to spend money for a book. Included is 19 maps, Congress and South Carolina information related to the 3 year contested election.

The book is paper back and will post live within 1 or 2 days for $24.99. I’m on the research continuation program to complete the life of C.C. Bowen as far more antics exists to the life of Bowen. This information is so new, I don’t own a copy yet.

Back Cover

Biographies of two of the most notable South Carolina lawmakers, forgotten in time.

My inspiration to write this book? To highlight the extraordinary accomplishments of historical lawmakers in South Carolina. Christopher Columbus (C.C.) Bowen’s biography emerged as a good, decent and respectable congressman yet deficient to accomplishments and past writings.

As my research into C.C. Bowen began, the question of historical accomplishments was abandoned to accommodate not only the life of Bowen, social, economic, political and Republican party circumstances of South Carolina, but a contested election in 1870 and protracted for 3 years.

Chronicled based on the historical record of facts is a detailed account from the early campaign through the contested period and to the final vote and conclusion by the Congressional Election Committee in the House of Representatives.

Modern day elections began in South Carolina from the 1870 Election law and sections are detailed due to Lawyer arguments during the contested period.

The 1851 law governed congressional rules and procedures to contested elections. A comprehensive account of previously contested elections are addressed to include names, dates and results.

Robert Carlos De Large as Bowen’s opponent considered the election contest his opportunity to emerge from lowly political offices in South Carolina to a higher status. The 1870 election allowed for the first time in South Carolina for a black man to vote and run for office.

De Large was young and not experienced as compared to the sophisticated and cunning political maneuvers from Bowen.

The book is an academic account fully documented to further highlight South Carolina’s General Assembly, Counties and Constitution, Congress in 1870, rules and procedures, South Carolina’s financial and social arrangements, Apportionment and Census to govern congressional seats.

Recommended readers are those with a true interest in politics, history and the historical record.

Thank you

Brian Twomey

Fed Funds from 0.07 to 0.05 changes EUR/USD Supports and Resistance. Here’s How

Current Fed Funds rate trades 0.05 from a successive drop over last days from 0.07 then 0.06. Rare for the Fed to change Fed funds and more rare to adjust quickly with a dramatic move. Current 0.05 trades close to SOFR and Repo rates at 0.01. Fed Funds from 0.05 contains 1 direction and its up back to next 0.06 then the current normal 0.07.


While 2 points appears meaningless, its quite dramatic to the DXY Vs EUR/USD relationship. For the EUR/USD and DXY, daily support and resistance points changed at 0.07, 0.06 and now 0.05. It quite natural for support and resistance points to change daily and this is the constant for day trades but interest rates answers the question exactly where are support and resistance points located and how much was the daily change.


The lower goes Fed Funds then the higher goes the averages. The higher goes the averages then the more EUR/USD drops and DXY and USD rises. Overbought and oversold prices are much more than a simple mathematical computation. Its viewed from interest rates and seen daily by the experienced human eye.


Most vital point to offer is up and down prices for any currency pair and every market financial instrument contains massive differences as each requires a separate computation.


DXY


From 0.05= Support = 89.33, 90.14 Below Vs above Resistance = 92.83 and 93.28


From below 0.06 = Support = 89.48 and 90.34 vs Resistance = 92.65 and 93.12


From 0.07 = 89.63 and 90.39 Vs 92.54 and 92.97.


Change from the first set of supports changed overall by – 30 pips, the 2nd supports changed by -20 while above resistance points changed by +29 and +31 pips.


From each day at 0.07, 0.06 and 0.05, the first supports dropped by 15 pips per day. The second set of supports changed by 20 and 5 pips per day.


The first set of resistance rose by 11 and 18 pips. The last set of resistance points rose each day by 15 and 16 pips.


Overall range to supports and resistance points expanded from 34 pips at 0.07, then 64 pips from 0.06 and 39 pips from 0.05. As Fed Funds lowered then overall ranges expanded to create a wider trade range.

At 0.06 and 64 pips, the Fed had no choice except to change to either 0.05 or 0.07 due to the wide range. DXY at 64 pips exceeds the daily overall trade range and beats the EUR/USD trade range.


EUR/USD


From 0.05 = Supports 1.1776 and 1.1834 Vs Resistance 1.2236 and 1.2297
From 0.06 = Supports 1.1796 and 1.1856 Vs Resistance 1.2213 and 1.2276
From 0.07 = Supports 1.1815 and 1.1871 Vs Resistance 1.2198 and 1.2256


From the first set of supports from 0.07 to 0.05, the change overall was – 39 pips and -31 pips for the 2nd supports.


Daily for the change at the first set of supports was minus 19 then 20 pips. The second set of supports changed daily by + 15 and + 22 pips. Daily Resistance points changed overall by +38 and +41 pips.


Daily for the change at the first Resistance point was + 15 and +23 pips.


Daily for the change at the 2nd Resistance point was +20 and +21 pips.


The positive and minus aspects represent EUR/USD and USD/EUR.


AS EUR/USD rises then USD/EUR drops. As USD/EUR rises then EUR/USD drops.


Only 19 points of EUR/USD daily pips trade Vs USD/EUR. For USD/EUR is the exact same pair as DXY with a difference as DXY exceeds USD/EUR ranges by 4 pips. Explains why its imperative to factor USD/EUR for exact supports and resistance points.


From 0.07 to 0.05, EUR/USD ranges dropped and expanded as USD/EUR.


USD/EUR


From 0.05 = Supports 0.8130 and 0.8171 Vs Resistance 0.8448 and 0.8491


From 0.06 = Supports 0.8145 and 0.8186 Vs Resistance 0.8433 and 0.8476


From 0.07 = Supports 0.8158 and 0.8196 Vs Resistance 0.8422 and 0.8462


The first set of supports = minus 28 pips and minus 25 for the 2nd set.


The first set of resistance = +26 and +29 pips.


EUR/USD


Daily EUR/USD supports since the Sunday open as 59 and 44 pips. While today calculates as 32 and 25 pips. The 25 pips derived from USD/EUR and 32 factors to EUR/USD.


Supports and resistance points change constantly and never remain the same from day to day. Interest rates are the driving factor and forces the change. To know interest rates is to know where exact locations to support and resistance.

Brian Twomey