The most interesting currency market development this week is the positions of CHF cross pairs as GBP/CHF, EUR/CHF, AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF. Mark this extraordinary situation under the many facets and nuances of the currency price and ascertained by the eyeball of prices to true observers.
To use GBP/USD and GBP/CHF as the examples. GBP/USD Thursday trade to highs at 1.1379 and GBP/CHF to 1.1355. GBP/USD corrected lower as exchange rates traded below GBP/CHF.
GBP’s universe of exchange rates: GBP/CHF, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD. I call this the hierarchy of exchange rates.
The correct positions and purpose of CHF cross pairs is to trade a lower exchange rate than the anchor currencies. Each currency in the universe is allowed a respective range to prevent not only exchange rate crossovers but to ensure anchor currencies don’t trade to wild extremes.
The further purpose is to maintain currency market price uniformity within the universe and to associated currencies. GBP/USD Friday traded to 1.1151 lows while GBP/CHF dead stopped at 1.1211.
If GBP/CHF was correct with an exchange rate below GBP/USD then GBP/USD would’ve never traded to such low depths. GBP/CHF would’ve stopped GBP/USD’s slide lower and GBP/USD to not violate GBP/CHF allotted range space.
As associated currencies, GBP/CHF is the leader currency to CHF cross pairs due to widest ranges. GBP/CHF dead stop at 1.1211 allowed all CHF cross pairs to dead stop but also to allow all anchor pairs mix match to trade below CHF cross pairs.
CAD/CHF is correct at 0.7246 or 1.3800 and trades below USD/CAD.
Note GBP/CAD at the 1.5509 open to the GBP universe. Average all GBP exchange rates and the answer is always GBP/CAD. GBP/CAD owns its space as middle and neutral currency between GBP/CHF, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY Vs GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD and never to violate another GBP currency space.
The CHF week begins as GBP/CHF 1.1232 Vs GBP/USD 1.1176. AUD/CHF 0.6238 Vs AUD/USD 0.6198, NZD/CHF 0.5592 Vs NZD/USD 0.5558, EUR/CHF 0.9775 Vs EUR/USD 0.9717.
The week contains 2 choices, GBP/USD trades higher than GBP/CHF or GBP/CHF trades lower than GBP/USD. The deciding factor is 1.1204. Correct is GBP/USD to trade at minimum 1.1079 and GBP/CHF to trade 1.0996. GBP/CHF must cross GBP/USD.
EUR/USD Weekly Trade
Last week’s EUR/USD 2nd leg as short 0.9829 to target 0.9758 achieved 0.9808 to 0.9758 or +50 pips while initial longs achieved +126 pips. Total +176 pips on EUR/USD 178 pip weekly range.
EUR/USD Long 0.9665 and 0.9661 to target 0.9772. Then Short 0.9772 to target 0.9710.
To follow the trade or take profit as desired, here’s major levels: 0.9691, 0.9708, 0.9725, 0.9742, 0.9759, 0.9776, 0.9793.
Short ranges this week as noted by EUR/USD to target at every 17 pips. The CHF cross pair alignments must rectify to allow EUR/USD and anchor pairs wider trade ranges.
The easy trades this week are short GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD.
GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY begin the week in the overbought stratosphere.
USD/CAD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF begin the week in the overbought extremes.
AUD/USD is the better trade to NZD/USD. Not only is AUD/USD massively oversold but AUD oversold matches to AUD/CHF and AUD/CAD while nothing special exists to AUD/JPY except to follow GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY lower.
Watch EUR/GBP 0.8659.
As currency markets begin the week in deep oversold and overbought, movements align as great profit opportunities.