EUR/USD V USD/JPY and JPY Crosses: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The currency market common theme this week is again focused on major break points inside the same 50 to 150 ranges for a vast majority of currency pairs. The prime example is EUR/USD break point at 1.1895 Vs USD/JPY at 109.41. The respective failure at break points held USD/JPY inside a 100 pip range last week from 109.20 to 110.25 and 181 pips for EUR/USD from 1.1657 to 1.1838.

Last week’s reported dark area in USD/JPY from 109.45 to 110.01 held for the most part and this week the same area exists from 109.45 to 110.04. Rarely seen Dark areas represent untouchable zones until a price break is seen.

The second theme as USD/CAD, USD/JPY correction lower, EUR/USD and non USD pairs higher remains this week’s price path. This week will clearly decide as the internals inside current prices contains easily ability for EUR/USD to break 1.1895 and seen inside USD/JPY is a good prospect to literally drop like a rock. What contains a massive USD/JPY fall however is seen in EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY higher against a range bound scenario in CAD/JPY and AUD/JPY. Clearly a volatile week is here and USD/JPY as the prime driver.

USD/JPY from the 109.55 close ranges from 109.42 to 109.69. Below most vital 109.42 targets remain from last week at 108.77 and 108.73 then possibly next week to further target 107.87. Above 109.69, sell points to target 109.42 and below to 108.77 is located at 110.04, 110.07, 110.22 and 110.44. Overall, any price above 109.45 becomes open for shorts and sell rally is the proper strategy as longs are impossible considerations.

EUR/USD must break 1.1873 and 1.1895 to target 1.1920 and 1.1954 then eventual 1.2058 and 1.2084. EUR/USD would then easily range from 1.2058 and 1.2054 to 1.2304 and 1.2357 as 1.2300’s represents breaks point to see a 1.2500 and 1.2700 EUR.
Below inside a EUR/USD weekly buy drop strategy, long points are located at 1.1730, 1.1722 and a solid line at 1.1679.
GP/JPY main break point to target 150.14 is located at 148.17. To achieve 150.14, GBP/JPY must clear 148.33, 148.55 and 148.93. The clear higher or lower point is located at 147.23.

Below inside a weekly buy drop strategy, long points are located at 146.68 and 146.65 then 145.47 and 145.42. Lower 145.00’s are not expected however as GBP/JPY will trade extremely bullish all week.

EUR/JPY as stated last week, break point now 130.13 leads to the top and many many points at 131.00’s. Target at 129.57 achieves by breaks at 129.15. Main break point all week to decide higher/ lower is located at 128.52. Below 128.01 and 127.61 provides excellent long point for an all week buy drop strategy. Not a terrific choice in EUR/JPY as GBP/JPY provides a clearer price path and wider ranges.

EUR/AUD break point above 1.5567 targets 1.5675 and 1.5697. Any price above 1.5536, all week provides excellent sell points as the overall top in EUR/AUD is located at 1.5700’s. Longs are again impossible and short only strategy is the only way. Note the word “ANY”. Look for shorts to 1.5417.

AUD/JPY break point is located at 83.60 from the 83.25 close. A break at 83.60 targets 84.46. Long drops is located at 82.80 and 82.06. To target a break at 83.60 then AUD/JPY must clear 83.16. Not a terrific currency choice in AUD/JPY as range conditions persist from 82.00’s to 84.00’s since March. AUD/JPY qualifies as well as EUR/GBP, CAD/CHF in the lower end 50 ish pip ranges as not much is seen to movements to AUD/JPY.

AUD/USD break point now 0.7641 and a rising line by 17 pips higher from last week’s 0.7624. Long points and only strategy is located at 0.7580, 0.7577 and 0.7554. AUD in on a long only strategy. Break at 0.7641 contains best shot provided 0.7619 breaks higher. Overall target is 0.7677, 0.7703 and 0.7805 in weeks ahead.

GBP/USD break point at 1.3544 targets 1.3611 and 1.3689. In weeks ahead on a 1.3544 break targets 1.3700’s, 1.3800’s and 1.4100’s. GBP for the week is heading higher and buy drops at 1.3378, 1.3327 and 1.3277 yet doubtful to be seen. Long only is the only way forward.

USD/CAD. Same deal as last week, short only strategy and short “Any” price above 1.2998. CAD break point at 1.2848 targets 1.2760 and 1.2715 on a break below and 1.2576 in weeks ahead.

CAD/JPY. Same pair, same Stats, and same tired range conditions as AUD/JPY. Reason for similarities is Australia and Canada share many of the same structures inside respective money markets systems.

Break point is located at 85.17 to target 85.63, 85.89, 85.98 and 86.03. CAD/JPY will struggle all week as USD/CAD decides its fate below 1.2848. Buy drops is located at 84.51, 84.30 and 84.11. As USD/CAD breaks 1.2848 then far higher to target 86.27 and higher will go CAD/JPY.

Again, note roughly 150 pip range and also note levels, ranges and targets are always exact week after week and year after year. Failure for major break point to break higher/lower will result in long rejection candles. Caution at vital break points.

Brian Twomey

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EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The common theme to currency market prices reported last week at 75 to 200 pip ranges held as EUR/USD for one example was knocked off its upward trajectory by Monday’s Italian elections and dived 138 pips to 1.1510 only to regain its correct weekly path to rise 214 pips to 1.1724.

The second theme as USD pairs lower to correct while non USD pairs higher also held last week and explains why EUR as one example rose 214 pips from its Italian lows. It explains USD/CAD’s 200 ish pip drop to 1.2800’s on Thursday’s BOC day and USD/JPY’s 171 pip dive from 109.80 to 108.11.

Currency markets this week will trade 50 and 150 ranges as the USD correction lower and non USD higher theme holds into its second week. Why the drop to 50 and 150 pip ranges is due because most vital break points to significant averages becomes the focus for a vast majority of currency pairs. Currency prices either break or long rejection candles are seen. Clearly, an interesting week is ahead.

The favorite pair again this week is clearly USD/CAD as overbought CAD desperately wishes to travel higher but CAD averages are moving against higher prices. EUR/USD and AUD/USD will trade strongly as both pairs move higher followed by GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. USD/JPY and EUR/JPY trade again as usual in their same old tired ways while EUR/AUD as inclusion this week is seen as nothing special. Encouraging to the EUR/USD Vs USD/JPY relationship is early beginnings to the first price divergence seen since Feb 23rd.

EUR/USD. To understand EUR/USD is to view its overall price trajectories in 300 pip ranges as EUR/USD begins from upper 1.1200’s and 1.1300’s to 1.1600’s then 1.1600’s to 1.1900. Above 1.1900 goes to 1.2200 and 1.2300 then 1.2300 to 1.2500 and 1.2700. Long and short term Hedges now established.

EUR/USD last week targets were located at 1.1788 and 1.1824 and EUR/USD traded to 1.1727. This week targets are located at 1.1704 and 1.1817. EUR/USD most vital break point for significantly higher is located 1.1896. A break higher then targets 1.2080’s and lower 1.2100’s. Vital supports and good long points are located at 1.1634, 1.1670 and 1.1687. EUR/USD to the extreme is located at 1.1572. Long only strategy applies to EUR/USD for the week.

USD/JPY break point is located at 109.30 and targets 108.57 on a further break below 109.46. USD/JPY’s problem this week is a dark area developed from 109.46 to 110.01 and in between is 109.73. Above 110.01 exists 110.27 and 110.42. Overall, USD/JPY is a short only strategy to target 108.57. At 109.30 and 109.73 establishes entry. Longer term, a deeper USD correction could see USD/JPY easily trade to 107.76 and 107.25.

USD/CAD break point to target 1.2740 and longer term 1.2571 is located at overbought 1.2832. The problem at 1.2832 is its well protected by 1.2876, 1.2854, 1.2845 then 1.2803. An off sync economic announcement maybe required to push CAD lower to break 1.2832. Lower to challenge 1.2832 is located at 1.2922, 1.2909 then CAD is clear to 1.2800’s. Above, last week’s 1.3003 is now located at 1.2996. As was the strategy since March, short only is the only way forward.

GBP/USD. Last week’s target at 1.3437 traded to 1.3362 and like EUR/USD fell a few pips shy as Monday’s Italian election debacle knocked GBP a few pips off course. This week’s taget is a few pips higher than last week at 1.3462. GBP’s break point for higher to target 1.3700 and 1.3800’s is located at 1.3558. Only points below and good long entries if seen are located at 1.3277 and 1.3232. GBP averages are rising and this is a good indication for a much higher GBP over coming weeks.

GBP/JPY main break point is located at 148.16 and a break above targets 150.19. Targets this week are located at 147.23 and 147.69. GBP/JPY to 147.23 should be an easy ride and overall GBP/JPY as well as GBP/USD contain astounding potential for miles higher. Only points below and good long points if seen are 146.58 and 145.61.

EUR/JPY should view as 122.00 to 125.00 then 125.00 to 128.00 and 128.00 to 131.00’s. The main break point to target 131.00’s is located at 130.01. EUR/JPY will find severe resistance at 130.51, 130.84 and 130.95.

Higher for EUR/JPY last week as mentioned would entail a struggle as 128.59 had to break to target 129.68. EUR/JPY traded to 128.52 then dived on Italian election concerns.Target this week is 129.44 on breaks of 128.01, 128.53, 128.72 then 129.11. Most important in this series is 128.53 to travel to target.

AUD/USD break point is located at 0.7624 to target 0.7691 and 0.7711. AUD must break first 0.7613 then home free to 0.7624 and higher. Last week AUD traded to 0.7592 then retreated to 0.7514 and closed at 0.7568. AUD was expected to break 0.7624 last week and this week contains a far better shot. Long only for the week is the only strategy as AUD will trade against a strongly bullish tone. Economic news this week contains Inflation, GBP, Retail Sales and RBA Tuesday. Long any drops to outside price events will offer great opportunities.

EUR/AUD break point is located at 1.5603. EUR/AUD will struggle at 1.5541, 1.5571 and good quick shorts if seen to target 1.5454. Overall nothing exciting exists in EUR/AUD. The import to 1.5603 break higher would see AUD/USD much lower and also to erase any gains seen above 0.7624. The preferred strategy is long any drops from lower 1.5300’s then target 1.5454.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, G10, Maintenance Periods: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Month end before QE and central bank control and management to exchange rates contained a significant meaning but today its a throw away term and lacks any importance.

Month end once meant a re calculation and adjustment to trading positions and this re calculation was an imperative because exchange rates moved 3, 4 and 500 pips on any given trading day. A huge difference existed from month to month and trading positions required adjustments because of the divergence between trend Vs Range pips. Trend pips were far more vital than range pips and a re calculation accounted for trend pip movements.

Today changed as ranges are more vital than trend pips.

USD/JPY for example moved barely 200 pips per month since Feb or recall the 2 month hold to EUR/AUD as it barely moved 300 pips per month. Take any pair within the 28 majors and monthly movements require practically zero adjustments but it depends on overall movements.

Month end was derived from bank Maintenance Periods as banks over past decades were responsible and traded the vast majority of exchange rates for the purpose to balance overall deposits.

Month End is counted by 35 days inside world banks Maintenance Periods and split as two 14 period days or 28 days in a given month and a total of 35 for those troubled banks who sought extensions to meet balance requirements. A bank in deficit at Maintenance Period end had to purchase cash while surplus banks sold cash. Month end is actually 28 and 35 days. Much more to Maintenance Periods such as interest paid to reserves but most simple is offered.

USD/CAD achieved 1.2864 Weekly target from yesterday’s BOC. Break point is now 1.2820 then hello 1.2500’s.

NZD/USD achieved weekly target at 0.6999. Break point for higher is now located at 0.7040.

USD/JPY achieved 108.62 target and break point for higher is now 109.31. At 109.47 should now eliminate as a break point.

AUD/USD break point is now 0.7626 and 0.7590 achieved so far. Target today is 0.7606 and a challenge to 0.7626 remains viable.

EUR/USD Weekly target at 1.1788 and 1.1824 achieved 1.1724 so far. Break point for higher is now located at 1.1914.

GBP/USD Weekly target at 1.3437 achieved 1.3347 so far. Break point for higher is located at 1.3573.

EUR/JPY break point at 128.59 was a challenge as mentioned and seen Monday when EUR/JPY traded 128.54 then dropped. Target remains 129.68 and 129.48 on a break of 128.59.

GBP/JPY remains over oversold and Weekly target remains 147.97 and traded so far 145.30.

Overall GBP/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/USD are within about 100 pips to target and 200 pips thereabouts for GBP/JPY which is in line.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, Sonia, G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

1 month after the BOE’s formal launch to its interest rate redesign, the system operates as normal however the great 1997 Sonia invention contains slight difference in meaning, understanding and application. It holds its power but under a slightly different context. Only those, especially bankers, with understanding to the prior interest rate system contains full comprehension to the new system.

Advantage goes to banks and derivative traders as they long prepared for this day but note banks and interest rate trader concern is an interest rate trade rather than a GBP trade. Both are miles apart to meaning, understanding and application. It was an imperative to understand the old system and relationship to GBP in order to apply GBP to the new standards.
What changed overall was time in relation to price as price lacks the same speed as it once held. Retail traders however still remain subjected to the scrap pips leftover from the pro traders against their perfect price knowledge.

Further to questionable changes and BOE interest rate adjustment insight is what is the interest rate Correlation to the money supply. As GBP and the BOE are far more closer to AUD and RBA than EUR, the assumption is Correlations are out of sync as it is for AUD.

Daily trades remain absolutely perfect as we prepared along with the bankers for GBP changes and applied the exact same methodologies.

EUR/USD. Recall the current 1.1550’s was the result of the 1.2358 break and EUR now traveled 800 pips. At 1.2358 is now 1.2312 and EUR is deeply oversold from this point. Today’s further break point to challenge again 1.2300’s is located at 1.1922 and as well is deeply oversold.

Oversold in context means the only 2 points remaining for EUR downside is located at 1.1369 and 1.1267. No such point exist for a 1.10 EUR presently and 1.10 won’t come into view if ever for many months. Again, we’re experiencing Banks turned retail traders against impossible to achieve forecasts and they cover the gambit, AUD 0.7100, EUR/GBP 0.9200, 0.9300, USD/JPY 117 in 3 months while 1 month already passed. Again, smart and skilled traders don’t write and why should they bother against today’s clutter and this includes me. Post to post from today’s writers looks like the same old tired thing,

Recall the USD/CAD trade from March at 1.3100’s and drop to 1.2500’s. USD/CAD today is located again 3 months later at its highs. Today’s short USD/CAD is a repeat to March as the highs are here again. The difference today is a 200 ish pip trade against March 600. USD/CAD’s break point today is 1.2819 and CAD remains severely overbought. Any price above 1.3002 is a sell only trade as USD/CAD’s overall strategy is short.

EUR/GBP also remains the gift that keeps on giving as highs are sold inside an overall short only strategy.

USD/JPY achieved 108.62 and traded to 108.11. USD/JPY’s break point is today’s 109.36. Above 109.47 is a problem for USD/JPY as its proper place is below 108.62.

EUR/JPY what remains to the downside is 123.00’s and 122.00’s and against a 10 year average at 125.24 while upsides exist at 130 and 131.00’s.

NZD/CAD held reported 0.8965 and bounced from 0.8971 to break 0.9006 and traded to 0.9026. NZD/CAD traded this week 55 pips. NZD/CAD at 0.9009 is an outlier number as it now trades in Skitzo land from 0.9009 to 0.9129 and 0.9141. NZD/CAD’s current position is quite dangerous and its not a currency pair to rush to trade until it leaves it skitzo qualities.

 

 

Brian Twomey

 

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The common theme in currency markets in the past 2 weeks was a standard 50 to 150 pip ranges against the caveat breakouts and big moves were on the way to expand trading ranges.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD held while GBP, EUR, USD/JPY and USD/CAD broke respective common theme ranges for 200 and 250 pips. JPY cross pairs traveled 200 and 400 pips. GBP/CAD as usual was the big winner in the Other Currency/CAD space at 270 pips while EUR/CAD traded 230 pips. Same scenario in GBP/CHF at 270 Vs EUR/CHF at 230.

The common theme among currency pairs rises this week to 75 and 200 pip ranges. Seen this week is USD drops vs corrections higher in Non USD pairs EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD as non USD achieved deeply oversold status. Despite correction, breakouts to respective break points will remain elusive as higher/ lower moves represent relief to oversold/ overbought conditions.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD will again fall into big winner status as well as deeply oversold JPY cross pairs in GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY. Deeply overbought USD/CAD will result in significant moves while USD/JPY will trade inside its normal 75 to 150 pip range. Overall currency markets functions as normal and outside danger to trade erratically is non existent.

As written weeks ago, all cross pairs became settled to respective prices to include JPY crosses and the USD V Non would lead the next market moves. This assessment was not only correct but USD V Non remains in full control to lead the cross pairs. Recall, March, April and part of May was strictly cross pair led while USD V Non held small ranges.

NZD/CAD was included this week because it wasn’t traded among the 28 majors during March, April and May trades. NZD/CHF, AUD/CHF and AUD/CAD remain holdouts to include in future posts.

EUR/USD targets this week are located at 1.1788 and 1.1824. Recall last week, EUR/USD achieved 1.1829 perfectly then dropped. Until EUR/USD breaks 1.1956 then moves higher must view as corrections to its current deeply oversold status. EUR/USD extremes below are located at 1.1625 and 1.1588. All week, EUR is in buy dip mode until targets achieve destinations. Target destination is expected early in the week and has potential to trade as AUD last week.

USD/JPY. Recall last week target at 109.46 achieved as USD/JPY had to trade to at least 109.46. Its did then continued its drop to 108.97 for a 241 pip weekly move from 111.38. This week USD/JPY target must trade to 108.62. Higher and not expected must break 109.47, 109.54 and 109.94. Most vital in this series is 109.54. USD/JPY sell rally is the way.

USD/CAD at 1.2974 trades at the upper top of its range and is skyrocket overbought. 3 weeks ago, USD/CAD top was located at 1.3038 while today the top is located at 1.3002. The averages are falling against CAD. The weekly target is located at 1.2864 for a 111 pip move. At 1.2864 is located just above vital point at 1.2833. Overall, CAD’s point at 1.2792 must break to target 1.2500’s. A break at 1.2833 then good shot to see CAD 1.2792 break lower.

GBP/USD is not only deeply oversold but GBP trades at the bottom portion of its range. The overall range is wide because its GBP’s normal wide ranges and trades from 1.3221 and 1.3285 to 1.3871. The must break point for significantly higher to target 1.3800’s and later 1.4100’s is located at 1.3614 and 1.3630. GBP/USD contains potential to trade easily to 1.3800’s. Target this week is located at 1.3437 for a 143 pip move and again inside the 150 ish common theme.

AUD/USD break point is located at 0.7625 and last week AUD traded to 0.7608 then dropped. At 0.7625 is expected to break to target next 0.7711, 0.7797 and later to 0.7808. AUD remains weeks later deeply oversold.

NZD/USD Break point is located at 0.7032 and 0.7041 to target 0.7132 and 0.7189. Overall, NZD as well remains deeply oversold and the weekly target is located at 0.6931 and 0.6999. Above 0.6999 then challenges 0.7041 break point.

GBP/JPY astronomical oversold targets this week 147.97 and if 149.09 breaks higher then further target becomes 150.36.

EUR/JPY targets this week 129.68 and this target is quite challenging as EUR/JPY must break 128.59 and 129.48. Despite deeply oversold, higher for EUR/JPY will remain a challenge as the averages work against EUR/JPY. The overall break point to confront top range point at 131.00’s is located at 130.94. A move higher in EUR/JPY as in GBP/JPY represents a correction to oversold.

NZD/CAD is firmly supported at 0.8593 and the break point for higher is located at 0.9006 from its 0.8971 close. A break at 0.9006 targets 0.9145 and 0.9165 and later 0.9189. Despite the 0.9006 break point, this level is not ready to break this week. The break point to decide higher or lower this week is located at 0.8965. Overall, no thrills exist in NZD/CAD.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

USD/JPY 4 days later from Sunday’s written post achieved target at 109.46 from low 111.00’s. Break points above at 109.58, 110.12 and 110.33 dictate further upside while 108.57 remains the further downside target.

EUR/USD achieved 1.1829 perfectly then dropped. EUR/USD will again rise to new target at 1.1824 and further upside to 1.1883.

Overall, EUR/USD and EUR cross pairs are fast approahcing bottoms and vital supports. This means EUR/USD fulfilled its price mission from 1.2300’s in March / April.

All eyes on the FED to offer Asymmetric and Neutral interest rates to further insult the intelligence of any market trader with understanding. Does anyone believe the FED ran 20 and 25 years Fed Funds data to know where the Neutral Rate is located. Neutral rates coming from a Fed to show 5 year median averages as Dot Plots. Meanwhile did 1 market reporter /analyst run 25 years of data and how many accepted the Fed hogwash as reality. The answer is none.

Fed or No Fed as just 1 example among all currency pairs, USD/JPY was going to Sunday’s reported target at 109.46. EUR/USD bounced around 63 pips on the FED and moved not one iota outside the overall 50 to 150 ranges contained inside 28 currency pairs. GBP/USD didn’t move. AUD/USD moved 30 pips.

Hourly charts are shown now 10 pip intervals as compared to days of old when 50 and 100 intervals were most common to all currency pairs. If shown a 1 inch candle and 20 and 40 pips traded in 1 swoop then the currency price didn’t move and overall the FED didn’t say anything nor moved any prices. Charts, indicators and all the rest are designed to slow and fool traders rather than assist. Trust the knowledgeable quantifications here as was trusted over many years.

How many central bank announcements, economic data and all the rest of the daily market baloney was involved to hit 400 and 500 pip targets 1 and 2 months away. The answer is zero as the currency price reaches its destination regardless to outside events. Shame on as unsuspected are subjected to such blah these days but more shameful to those to accept this stuff. Que Sera Sera

EUR and EUR cross pairs not only completed destinations but all are oversold to include EUR/JPY. EUR/CAD remains an outlier and sits aimlessly. EUR/NZD still contains the biggest move on the way. EUR/JPY is most oversold yet 129.00’s broke so EUR/JPY will see a review for next week.

EUR/USD break points are located at 1.1702 and 1.1982.

AUD/USD achieved 0.7604 this week and break point is now rising 0.7629

EUR/NZD 1.6997 must break higher to target 1.7022 and 1.7094. Note EUR/NZD traded below 1.7094 all week. Oversold for today begins at 1.6914.

NZD/USD break point is located at 0.7050.

USD/CAD break point 1.2772 to target below 1.2500’s.

CAD/JPY trades just below its break point at 85.80.

GBP/USD watch target today 1.3423.

GBP/JPY break point now 149.44 and at 146.00’s is past entry to the 149 target trade.

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

EUR/US and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

EUR/USD as written achieved perfection at 1.1829 then dropped. EUR/USD 1.1883 is next. Welcome to EUR day.

EUR/CHF touched 1.1712 then reported 1.1773 target achieved 1.1769. EUR/AUD had to trade to 1.1559, it did then traveled to 1.5489.

The cautious EUR/NZD at 1.7021 achieved 1.6931 but failed to mention 1.6885 as the further downside target and this applies to EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD downside as well. Zero traction to EUR/GBP’s downside as it maintained a 50 pip range. Higher for EUR/GBP will allow another short.

EUR/GBP remains years later, a severe problem pair and this will continue. We’ll take the quick 100 pip trades as break points materialize but never for longer term holds. Above 0.8800’s becomes untouchable but allows for a long term 100 ish pip short. Downside target remains 0.8663.

AUD/USD as written traveled 100 pips so far as its break point at 0.7628 is here. A break higher then 0.7811 becomes the target.

Failure to consult my notes for downside targets but overall, I manage everyday 10 and 15 currency pairs and added to another 9 posted amounts to 25 pairs. People win awards for far less than my overall trade performance.

EUR/JPY failed to report purposefully as 129.00’s to 132.00’s was reported ad nauseam for to long and it held as written.

EUR/JPY break point is now 131.42 to target 132.00’s. USD/CAD, same story since March ranges 1.2700;s to 1.3000’s. CAD break point today is 1.2763.

EUR/USD ranges are 1.1702 to 1.2002 and 1.2002 dropped 16 pips from 1.2018 Sunday. A drop on a higher EUR/USD warns a break higher is coming. A 1.2018 rise would warn to only correction.

GBP/USD break point now 1.3664 and a 9 pip drop since Sunday. Watch GBP/JPY break point at 149.62.

AUD/JPY sits above supports at 83.54 and 84.31. NZD/JPY from current 77.10 faces break points above at 77.27 and 77.72. An AUD/JPY correction will see GBP/JPY moving higher again.

USD/CHF 0.9930 holds CHF longs for now. USD/JPY still waiting for the first break at 110.33 to travel lower.

NZD/USD break now 0.7057.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and EUR Cross Pairs: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The commonality to currency markets this week as it pertains to EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and EUR cross pairs is all require a correction higher while USD/JPY desperately needs a correction lower. Correction for EUR/USD, EUR cross pairs and AUD means overall ranges from 50 to 150 pips and nothing at all special as downside prices traveled to oversold.

Note 50 to 150 pip ranges best describes the overall trading conditions in a vast majority of currency pairs and this means breakouts are coming to expand trading ranges.

Oversold and 150 pips is far to kind as applied to EUR and AUD but its USD/JPY easily will dictate EUR and AUD because USD/JPY needs a 150 pip correction. The higher USD/JPY travels from current prices without a correction then the harder it will fall in 1 fat candle. USD/JPY since March was and will remain the odd ball and problem currency pair as its price is far to high and it approaches dangerously high levels near 113.00’s.

Higher for EUR and AUD means its vital break points to travel higher will hold and lower USD/JPY also means its break point holds. Until vital points are broken then current trends remain and seen overall is a true correction. Further, all EUR cross pairs trade below vital break points.

EUR/USD and its cross pairs all remain comfortably below vital break points. EUR/NZD however contains severe pressure on current prices and must move higher but higher means a challenge to vital point at 1.7094. Yet at the 1.7021 close, EUR/NZD sits 1 pip below its important point at 1.7022.

While the SNB in 2009 released the 1.2000 Floor to the EUR/CHF Peg against EUR/USD, here’s EUR/CHF at 1.1743 and EUR/USD at 1.1771. The SNB’s Peg to EUR/USD is contained inside a whole different dimension as it allows EUR/CHF to trade within EUR/USD ranges.

It represents an unfair game as EUR/CHF is taken from its normal allowable trading ranges and eliminated as a standalone currency pair to trade. Of all EUR/USD cross pairs, EUR/CHF and EUR/NZD contain the widest ranges and on paper is allowed to move far and wide but the EUR/CHF Peg to EUR/USD cuts EUR/CHF to far less than 1/2 its allowable distance.

EUR/NZD price pressures is nothing new in the life of its ranges and seen all the time. In another few months, guaranteed we’ll see it again. The why is explained by completely dead European interest rates and the influence interest rates share to German yields. The ECB like the SNB and all central banks are equally abusive to their exchange rate ranges as they know exactly how to control the game and its not through yields any longer as once existed pre 2008 and post 2016 changes. For interested, the how aspect to yields, interest rates and central bank control was written in deep detail to the exact pip. We remain ahead of the central banks.

USD/JPY correction lower begins first at 110.33 then to target at 109.46. Many resistance points exist in the 109.00’s from 109.77, 109.87 to 109.46, 109.39 and 109.34. Overall break point for lower USD/JPY to target 108.44 is located at 109.39. Top channel is now 113.25. To understand slow grind, USD/JPY’s break point at 109.39 was 109.28 on Feb 23rd.

USD/JPY began its March journey higher from 104.00’s then it broke rough resistance zones at 106.00’s to next travel to and break of the next set of rough points at 108.00’s and trade to 110.00’s. The rough resistance points higher located every 200 pips forced a slow 3 months and 600 pip grind. Fed speakers and promise of Fed rate hikes forced USD/JPY higher as interest rates began to reflect the rise otherwise USD/JPY has no business at such high prices as miles of downside exits.

EUR/USD Vital break point is located at 1.2018 and not expected to break this week. A correction from deeply oversold forces EUR/USD higher to target first 1.1829 then 1.1883.

Overall EUR/USD dropped from 1.2500’s in February due to approach to the 10 year average at 1.2800’s and severely overbought from 1.1300’s, 1.1400’s and 1.1500;s. The big break at 1.2300’s then 1.2100’s was responsible to see current 1.1700’s. While 1.2018 is today’s break point for higher, 1.2300’s remains and will remain in many months to come as the vital break to see EUR back to 1.2500’s and higher. Further, weekly averages since February began its drop against a higher EUR and this week is no different therefore until the averages began to rise, the correct move higher represents a correction to the larger downtrend.

EUR/AUD target lower from the March short trade at 1.6100’s remains 1.5559. A correction is warranted first yet overall EUR/AUD remains in sell rally mode until 1.5500’s achieves its destination.

EUR/AUD break point is located at 1.5767, top channel at 1.5823 and again not expected to break anytime soon. Higher for EUR/AUD means a target at 1.5721 then begins the drop to 1.5631. Overall, AUD/EUR broke and must remain above 1.5765 as well as a higher expected AUD/USD to ensure EUR/AUD travels to 1.5631 and target to 1.5500’s.

EUR/CHF from its 1.1743 close faces it channel bottom at 1.1732 and 1.1719 as well as extreme oversold at 1.1675. EUR/CHF break point is located at 1.1807 and again not expected to break anytime soon. First target above is located at 1.1769 then 1.1788. The downside then resumes to 1.1719.

EUR/CAD. From the close at 1.5166, first target is located at 1.5199 then 1.5236. Overall break point is located at 1.5350 and top channel now at 1.5609. Recall the short in March from 1.5500’s. The top at 1.5609 is the result of weekly averages dropping since 1.5500’s in March.

EUR/NZD closed at 1.7021 and next prices are dictated by the break point at 1.7022. Below 1.7022 targets 1.6931 while above targets 1.7094 and 1.7113. Most vital for short continuation is for EUR/NZD to remain below 1.7094.

AUD/USD break point is located at 0.7622 while below AUD hits extreme prices at 0.7463. Same story reported week after week, AUD is deeply oversold. First target above is located at 0.7551 then 0.7586. Longer range target remains 0.7811.

EUR/GBP was reported last week and short remains the strategy to target first 0.8663 then 0.8500’s. Longs are impossible for weeks to come.

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

 

USD/CAD and CAD/JPY led the way in March for 600 pip moves then USD/CAD settled into a 300 pip range where it remained since March while CAD/JPY ranged roughly 100 to 150 pips.

EUR/JPY was already into its roughly 400 pip range from 129.00’s to 133 tops and not much changed since March. AUD/JPY settled into its 400 pip range from 80 to 84 however 80 and 84 were outliers as AUD/JPY hasn’t strayed far from 82’s since March. GBP/JPY’s 145 to 153 and 800 pip range remains the big mover yet recall May 8 and long from bottoms at 147.46 and overall 150 target.

Here’s the overall question: how many of the 35 currency pairs posted since March completed its 600 pip mission and to what time frame. 28 currency pairs in the majors are offered but not many of 28 are worth the trouble on long term holds.
EUR/AUD after 2 months just hit its 1.5736 target from 1.6100’s after 2 months for 200 pips per month. The optimum method to trade EUR/AUD to the 1.5736 target is by hitting daily highs then short, ht highs then short as gains far above 200 pips will be seen. The alternative is to plow into the 200 pips and live life outside the daily screens and pablum commentaries.

What is seen from 200 and 300 pip movements per month is the new currency market structure in place since June 2016. But 2 and 300 pips are trend pips as opposed to range pips, big difference. Central banks changed interest rates into a forced daily lending program to ensure nation’s money constantly moves but they streamlined the available borrow and lend ranges. Interest rates and lend/ borrow was the target designed for daily and short term moves and the exchange rate suffered the ancillary effects. CAD is the greatest mover because the BOC can’t nor won’t change its perfectly designed interest rate structure. Luckily for USD, Commercial Paper can’t be touched.

EUR/USD. What remains below is 1.1712 then 1.1588. Above must break 1.2045 to target 1.2100’s and 1.2200’s. Massive resistance exists at 1.2300’s.

USD/JPY Below break exist at 110.09 then 109.23. Above must break 110.44 and 110.46 to target 110.98 then 111.71. Top channel exists at 113.30.

GBP/USD. How about today’s break point is 1.3700, exactly at 1.370062. Break of 1.3700 targets 1.3890 then 1.4190. Below 1.3299 and 1.3193 remain vital supports.

GBP/JPY. 149.94 represents the current break point.

EUR/GBP from Monday sell 0.8817, traded to 0.8713 with a target at 0.8663. Sell rallies is the way for many weeks to come.

NZD/USD Break Point now 0.7074. Below breaks exist at 0.6869 and 0.6742.

AUD/EUR broke higher above 0.6300’s and explains why EUR/AUD now trades at 1.5600’s and on its way to 1.5500’s.

USD/CAD watch today 1.2763 as a break lower targets 1.2500’s.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Recall AUD/NZD March 30 when its price traded at lower 1.0600’s and the reported target was located at 1.0964. The target then was known and AUD/NZD would trade to target 1.0964. Nothing on this planet would or could stop AUD/NZD to not trade to target. I bailed on this trade for ? 75 ish pips due to extremely poor performance and poor market memories.

2 months later, AUD/NZD just traded to 1.0902. Two months later where is the target or adjusted target from 1.0964 is unknown as AUD/NZD wasn’t worth the trouble to inspect further at 150 pips per month. What is known at 300 pips from 1.0600’s is an under performed currency pair as currency markets are represented since March at overall 600 pips but far less today.

Adjusted target means every month or so may require a further inspection depending on the currency pair. Once a forecast is offered, the target is written in stone as was seen from past 35 trades. Today’s GBP/USD for example longer range target is 1.4199, 1 week ago was 1.4215 and 1.4225 from 2 weeks ago. GBP topside is dropping by roughly 10 to 15 pips per week. EUR/AUD target at 1.5736 from 1.6100’s achieved 1.5776 and is the probable target after 2 months.

Mind the Gaps. GBP/USD achieved today 1.3524. This price is located between today’s 1.3536 and 1.3511. But 1.3524 fails to represent the bottom. The bottom side has room and is located from 1.3511 to 1.3493 and 1.3493 to 1.3475. Mind the Gaps on the topside is located from 1.3593 to 1.3612. Further protection to the topside is built in at 1.3619 because GBP has a distinct habit once every 2 or 3 months to trade bonkers. We are always prepared and welcome bonkers but even more prepared to Mind every possible pip inside Gaps.

Overbought AUD/NZD break points below are located at 1.0771 and 1.0723. Nothing special in AUD/NZD.

USD/JPY at 109.97 trades at its break point and its do or die for JPY to break above at 110.08 or travel lower to its bottom break at 109.10.

USD/CAD trades close to its break points at 1.2770 then 1.2719. CAD remains range bound since March from 1.2700’s to 1.3000’s but a move is building inside CAD.

EUR/USD break point dropped 10 pips since Sunday from 1.2070 to today’s 1.2060. EUR/USD is contained today at 1.1893 and 1.1877.

GBP/JPY break at 148.99 targets 149.25 and 149.51. The break point is now 149.58.

USD/CHF sits comfortably above 0.9809.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The most important relationships in currency markets in past decades is most widely traded by actual numbers and % of all traded pairs is EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. EUR/JPY was the premiere risk pair as it defined direction to EUR/USD and USD/JPY as well as insights to USD Vs non USD currency pairs. Seen since Feb 23rd the EUR/USD and USD/JPY relationship was contained to barely 200 pip overall monthly ranges and 200 pip ranges in the majors contained EUR/JPY to a smaller degree.

Since Feb 23rd, USD/JPY rose 478 pips from 105.26 to 110.04 but then came the weeks of April 17 and April 24 when USD/JPY dipped to 104.64 and 104.58. USD/JPY actually rose 546 pips from 104.58 or 182 pips per month.

EUR/JPY rose 391 pips since Feb 23rd from 129.58 to 133.49 but then came the week of April 17 when EUR/JPY dipped to 128.97 then the actual pip jump was 452 pips or 150 pips per month.

EUR/USD jumped 320 pips between Feb 23rd to April 24th from 1.2158 to 1.2478 or 160 pips per month then dived 652 pips to last week’s 1.1822.

EUR/USD break point for higher is located at 1.2069 and this contains EUR/USD to roughly 1.1941 to 1.2195. Below, 1.1833 serves as this week’s long point to trade to 1.1941. The road higher to 1.2069 is rough as 1.1990 must clear first then 1.2009, 1.2039, 1.2046 and 1.2083.

USD/JPY must break is located at 109.04 then target at 108.08. USD/JPY must first break 109.21 then 109.12. Overall 109.99, 109.43 and 109.37 descends upon USD/JPY and protects the 110.07 break at the 5 year average. Good sell point at 109.99 and the same advice written last week at 109.97.

EUR/JPY sits on solid supports at 128.63 and 129.50, 129.18 and 129.01. The must break point for higher is located at 131.57. The 133 top written weeks ago is now 132.29. In the way to 131.57 is 130.76, 130.89 and 131.35. Watch for quick longs at 130.42 but overall nothing special in EUR/JPY.

EUR/GBP recall from the last trade is again at our sell point at 0.8813. EUR/GBP desperately needs a dive. Break points are located at 0.8796, 0.8794 and 0.8782. Below 0.8782 then targets 0.8665 and 0.8548 and 0.8533. Longs are impossible.

AUD/USD break Point is located at 0.7634 and above targets 0.7713, 0.7749 and 0.7778. First break point to 0.7634 are 0.7561 and 0.7601. Below is contained at 0.7519. Longer term target remains at 0.7816. AUD contains terrific potential higher.

GBP/USD Overall range is located at 1.3299 to the break point at 1.3721. Above 1.3721 targets 1.3805, 1.3883 and 1.3890. Longer term target is located at 1.4190. Below 1.3299 then comes 1.3193.  GBP contains great potential to travel much higher.

 

Brian Twomey

 

EUR, G10, Interest Rates, Gaps: Levels, Ranges, Targets

EUR/AUD shorts from upper 1.6100’s and target 1.5736 now trades 1.5776. The further target was written 1.5500’s from 1.6100’s. Don’t lose sight. Recall EUR/JPY 128.00’s to 131.00’s and 133.00 tops. Weeks and weeks later, EUR/JPY maintained the previously written range.

Mind the Gaps as this is the new concept derived by the central banks and it is found in the mystery rate. The BOE is the new member to the Mind the Gap strategy as they followed AUD and NZD. All formulated due to the perfection and long history from USD.

The ECB is the laggard but the ECB has been in a deep coma for many years and certainly since they went negative. The ECB settled then lost focus. The BOC by far is brilliant and like me is many miles ahead of the game. The BOC remains market oriented while most central banks seek and achieved exchange rate management.

The daily targets must account for the Gaps in order to hit perfect targets. The point of note is the GBP pairs posted 2 days ago. The lost point of note is the GBP pairs posted 2 days ago.

Given 2 exchange rates on 2 separate days, each contains a far different story. If for example USD/JPY was shown yesterday at 108.84. Yesterday’s 108.84 traded successfully for its significance then its forgotten as it doesn’t hold sway any longer. Today’s 108.84 holds a radically different set of information to trade and contains no information from yesterday.

Monday’s were designed decades ago to remain dead trading days. Technical analysis is impossible to explain this concept.

USD/JPY, Recall Monday 109.97 recommended sell point. USD/JPY as usual week after week brought the price to the brink and traded 110.01. It traded in overnight Asia at 109.19. The overall break point is located at 108.99. Far lower to 107’s on a break. Look for 109.64 and 109.88 to contain for today while 108.99 is blocked by 108.95.

GBP/JPY Contained above at 148.48 and break point at 149.63. Watch 147.22 below.

EUR/USD. Watch above 1.1958 on break 1.1934. Watch below 1.1876 and 1.1859. Overall break point 1.2078.

GBP/USD. Strong supports at 1.3460’s. Watch 1.3572 above on break of 1.3542. New Risk/ Reward definition, perfect.
Brian Twomey

 

EUR/USD and GBP, Carney: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Recall skyrocket overbought EUR/CAD at 1.5500’s against first target at 1.5300’s and much lower forecasted. Here’s EUR/CAD at 1.5100’s. EUR/CAD performed a GBP/CAD in beginning stages of the trade as GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD both bolted 100 ish pips higher before they embarked on the short journey. How much did 100 pips matter overall when GBP/CAD end result was 600 pips short from 1.17900’s to 1.7300’s and EUR/CAD 400 pips at 1.5100’s .EUR/CAD’s 400 pips revealed as stated how miserable is this currency pair despite miles overbought from 1.5500;s.

Most important overall is understanding to the 5 W’s of Journalism, Who, What, Where, When, how and WHY. Where, When, How and Why is most vital.

The main concept and roughest aspect is one must believe wholeheartedly in the numbers as presented and without a picture. If pictures states a 1000 words then the picture must also reveal 1000 possible outcomes. I alleviated the concept of pictures many years ago in favor of numbers and targets as I found pictures, candles and charts all wrong. Against the new structural currency price system, pictures, charts and candles are even more wrong.

Recall GBP/JPY from Monday and long from 147.46 to target 149.29 and today traded 149.23 for +177 pips. Yesterday’s GBP pairs achieved destinations, USD/JPY from Monday at 109.94 short point. And the list of trades and targets from past weeks goes on and on but without failure and without stops as a stop says I don’t trust, I don’t believe, I need protection. Stops are not needed here.

To restate from yesterday and Carney comments. All central bank economic releases are pretty much on target or extremely close. Nothing special in economics. The magic words to move the currency price are interest rates and interest rate related.
No raise anytime soon then look out below GBP. Consideration to raise end 2018 or 2019 then supported and higher GBP. Any commentary written in regards to GBP interest rates to high, to low, just perfect and the answer to the main ingredient is no.

GBP/USD. Break Point now 1.3745, GBP trades below, A break at 1.3558 targets 1.3536, 1.3519, 1.3510 and 1.3502. Above targets 1.3634 upon a break at 1.3606 and 1.3618.

GBP/JPY, Break Point 149.71, GBP/JPY trades below. A break at 148.88 and 148.63 targets 148.44, 148.35 and 148.26. Above 149.31 targets 149.73. Potential higher in GBP/JPY remains terrific.

GBP/CAD Break point now 1.7562. Watch below 1.7365 targets at 1.7343 and 1.7321, Above 1.7424 targets 1.7486 and 1.7497.

EUR/USD break point 1.2088, Watch below 1.1837, targets 1.1821 and 1.1813, Above 1.1881 and 1.1895 targets 1.1918.

USD/JPY Watch again today’s 109.95 and 5 year average at 110.06. Break Point below 108.95. look for higher and reversal at 110.08 and below 109.53, targets 109.39 and 109.26.

AUD/EUR break point 0.6324 and a close monitor for AUD/USD.

AUD remains lazer beam focus as potential higher is astounding. GBP/USD and GBP/JPY remain heavily focused for higher.

EUR/NZD Recall now trades again back at 1.7130’s and 1.7240’s. Short is the way.

USD/CAD watch break point 1.2777. Shorts and sell rallies was correct. Short and sell rallies will remain correct.

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD and GBP Cross Pairs: Levels, Ranges, Targets

As no time is available for further Carney analysis, most prominent GBP pairs are located below and levels, ranges and targets are as usual perfect. Yet as Carney delivers his remarks, not much matters as to what he says due to the known Levels, Ranges and Targets derived from his own Central Bank, the BOE.

GBP/USD Break Point for higher or lower, 1.3757. GBP/USD trades below break point. Bottom contained by 1.3488, 1.3471 and 1.3454. Target 1.3589 on a break at 1.3552.

GBP/JPY break Point 149.80. GBP/JPY trades below break point. Bottom contained by 147.83, 147.64 and 147.46. Thick supports 147.64 and 147.65. Above target 148.94 on break 148.58.

GBP/CAD break Point 1.7575, GBP/CAD trades below break point. Above 1.7575, targets for today only, 1.7566, 1.7599 and 1.7610. Below contained by 1.7478, 1.7455, 1.7456 and 1.7434.

GBP/NZD break Point 1.9309, GBP/NZD trades above break point. Above 1.9444, targets 1.9474 and 1.9489 and 1.9504. Below 1.9381, Targets 1.9356 and 1.9332.

GBP/AUD Break Point 1.7984, GBP/AUD trades above break point. Below break at 1.8190 targets, 1.8158, 1.8131 and far below target 1.8112.

GBP/CHF. Break Point 1.3443, GBP/CHF trades above break point. Below 1.3556 targets 1.3532 and solid line at 1.3515 then 1.3498. Above targets 1.3619 to 1.3635.

Overall in 6 GBP pairs, 3 pairs trade below vital break points GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and GBP/CAD while 3 pairs trade above vital break points, GBP/CHF, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD.

Most wide ranging pairs among all 6 GBP pairs are in order GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/JPY then GBP/CHF and GBP/USD share equal range billing. GBP/USD and GBP/CHF are least in the range scale while GBP/NZD is most wide yet most wide among all G10 currency pairs. Why GBP/USD is least on the range scale is GBP remains deeply intertwined to USD and GBP/CHF shares equal range scale billing because GBP/CHF and GBP/USD are essentially the same pair.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, G10 and Fed Funds: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Fed Funds in Q1 and Q2 in 2015 traded to its lowest depths at 0.02 and a drop from 5.25 highs in 2006 to 2007. Not only was Fed Funds deeply oversold and extraordinarily ready for liftoff to true economic normalization but Queen Yellen decides instead of raise, she would purchase $60 billion more Treasuries per month. Fed Funds then was protected in 2015 to not trade lower or to zero or negative by the new Fed Repo Rate Facility.

Surely Yellen could travel against the grain of normal economics by raising interest rates at the same time to expand the money supply. Meanwhile the reason why Fed Funds traded to 0.20 was derived from past QE purchses as money supplies and interest rates from central bank to central bank since the start of time share an adverse relationship.

Then again GDP took a severe drop as is normal when interest rates drop and money supplies rise. Despite the Queen’s promise of economic recovery, Technology was the only feature in years of GDP data to experience growth.

Read the 1996 Telecommunications Act 1996 Section 2 and anyone would see Technology was given a green light to expansion Without technologial expansion, GDP would’ve traded to zero or lower as zero growth was seen during the Queen’s reign. Yellen missed the time and opportunity to normalize economics to interest rates and full recovery.

December 2015 began liftoff to 0.50 then 0.75 and now 1.50, known from prior posts in 2015, 2016 and 2017 is Fed Funds at 1.50 is more than skyrocket overbought. Fed Funds was overbought at 0.50 and 0.75 and 25 years of data was taken from not actual headline but actual Fed Funds as actual Fed Funds always trades below headline.

Why overbought on quick raises is by 2016 when Fed Funds traded to headline at 0.75, the averages in 2 years moved 2 basis points. Yellen raised into overbought and continued despite averages inability to travel higher.

The Natural Rate of interest at the 25 year average in March 2016 was 2.67, at the 20 year 2.24 and 1.70 at the 17 year average. At current 1.50, where Powell would be the final destination and does it matter. For the Natural Rate taken from the 25 year average and below resulted in a lower and lower rate.

Recall the great genius Knut Wiksell, when market rates trade above the Natural Rate, “bad things happen’ to include recession and crashes. Current short term market rates in USD and all G10 central banks except the BOE trade miles above headline for the past nearly 2 months and no sign to trade lower. USD is the current driver to the overall system as all central banks set rates based on USD.

In exchange rates, USD is way overbought and Non USD oversold. How long will this situation last. We’ve seen this situation many times before especially in EUR/USD on the way to 1.2500’s.

GBP/JPY traded from Sunday 147.46 to yesterday 148.25 ish for 100 pips then dropped to current 147.09. GBP/JPY is now not only Richter scale oversold but only 146.39 and 146.18 exist below. Below both rates, GBP/JPY becomes untouchable and a continuation of a long only strategy. Potential higher is quite astounding.

EUR/USD break point now 1.2121 and absolute daily bottom at 1.1868 is here as well as the multi month range bottom at 1.1836. At 1.1720 is only point to 1.1569.

GBP/USD long for the day at 1.3509 and last range point is 1.3309. Miles oversold is GBP.

USD/JPY break point now 108.85 and a break lower then for today next 108.39. Above watch 109.18 and 109.47.

EUR/AUD from 1.6100’s achieved 1.5839 and on the way to 1.5700’s. Can’t follow big long term trades to conclusion as marker memories went dead. Yesterday is gone, tomorrow doesn’t count and only today is the focus. Next break point 1.5816 and top today at 1.5865.

EUR/GBP just broke 0.8796, watch lows at 0.8739 and strong daily support at 0.8719.

EUR/CHF look for rise from 1.1855.

AUD/EUR 0.6303 assists AUD/USD higher on a long only strategy.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Levels, Ranges and Targets as titled is fully descriptive in my estimation to encompass the comprehensiveness to currency and all market prices based on my many years inside assorted models, trades and views. The range aspect as it pertains to EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CAD to describe February to current day highlights based on actual pip movements.

EUR/USD since Feb dropped roughly 600 pips from 1.2500’s to 1.1900’s while USD/JPY rose 600 pips since Feb from 104.70 to 109’s and now 110’s. EUR/USD wasn’t ready to break the 10 year average at then 1.2800’s and dropped while USD/JPY failed to break the 14 year average at 103’s and subsequently rose.

The end result after 3 months was a slow grind 600 pip range trade and reported week after week to the EUR topside drop and JPY rise. The compression story remains into week 11 however extremely slow as a EUR/USD topside drop and JPY rise continues to eventual showdown in the weeks ahead.

The sincere miss to EUR/USD shorts was the 1.2300 break as it allowed a clear 400 pip move to 1.1900’s. USD/JPY on its own volition began its severe confliction in the 107’s and 108’s as it became an uncertain currency pair in search of its next move. It traded to 110’s only on a break of 107’s and 108’s as it cleared the 106 clutters and the move higher was forced upon USD/JPY. The only clear move in the 600 pip rise was caught for 200 ish pips at the 104 bottoms to 106’s.

To CAD’s 600 pips, remember the March 14th CAD trade and the 600 pip drop in USD/CAD from 1.3100’s to 1.2500’s. This trade was done in weeks as well as CAD/JPY. Both USD/CAD and risk measure CAD/JPY remained severely stuck after the drop in barely 200 – 300 pip ranges. Both pairs remains stuck today, 9 weeks later.

The commonality to currency markets in the last 3 weeks and into today was cross pairs became settled in 100 to 150 ranges while as written the next move had to derive from the USD and non USD pairs. The Carney comments forced the move yet the Carney statements were unforeseen. Known prior was the move was coming while not known was the origination. A currency price viewed as an economic document and leading indicator contained 2 choices to force the USD V Non move and those distinctions were a misaligned economic announcement or central bank statement.

EUR/USD is now deeply oversold as prior overbought in the 1.1200’s, 1.1300’s and 1.1500’s eliminated as written on the drop to 1.1900’s. Massive oversold supports exist in the 1.1700’s 1.1800’s and 1.1944 at the 5 year average.

Higher EUR/USD targets 1.2033 on a break of 1.1998 and 1.2015. EUR/USD will severely struggle at 1.2079, 1.2082 and 1.2085 as it approaches its vital break point to travel higher at 1.2142. A massive cluster of resistance surrounds 1.2142 at 1.2147 and 1.2163. Only on clearance to this area would EUR/USD target 1.2251. Until the cluster clears, higher EUR is viewed as a correction.

USD/JPY higher must clear 110.01, 5 year average at 110.04 then comes 110.45, 110.53 and 111.05. Higher to 110’s must clear 109.13, 109.25, 109.43 and 109.94. Watch 109.94 for reversal. USD/JPY rises comes slowly and painfully as the absolute top is located at 113’s.

USD/JPY as seen in USD/CAD contains miles of downside but USD/JPY is held by the Fed’s promise to raise Fed Funds into an already skyrocket overbought Fed Funds rate.

Lower USD/JPY must break 108.85 to target 107.79, 107.75 and 107.14. Good longs at 107.14 to target 107.75.

GBP/USD overall range is wide and located from 1.3308 to 1.3901. Longs are the way this week to target 1.3637, 1.3701 then rough points at 1.3766 and 1.3777. The overall break point for higher is located at 1.3810 but in the way is 1.3855. Overall, GBP is oversold and has every ability to fly much higher to target 1.4200’s in the weeks ahead.

AUD/USD remains deeply oversold and far more oversold from the last report. In AUD, the deeper downside is viewed as a fantasy. At 0.7100’s represents severe extremes at 0.7400’s is done and below 0.7566 is untouchable. AUD contains great potential to travel much higher to 0.7700’s.

Longs this week targets 0.7577 and 0.7596 on the way to AUD’s overall break point at 0.7676 and 0.7695.

GBP/JPY deeply oversold targets easily 149.59 and on the way to its break point at 150.29. Longs only is the only strategy.
AUD/JPY remains as well highly oversold and the break point is located at 83.57.

USD/CHF as well is heading for a deep correction to first 0.9880 then 0.9809. Higher must break 1.0129 to target 1.0195. USD/CHF in the 0.9700’s is well protected by many and massive supports. Seen as well in USD/CHF is a highly conflicted currency pair.

USD/CAD closed this week at 1.2845 and last week 1.2830. The range is located from overbought 1.2754 to 1.2982 and 1.3038 for an overall 284 pip range. USD/CAD since March 14th continues its barely 300 pip range. The only approach is sell price rises as further overbought begins at 1.2865 and 1.2891. Overall, miles of downside exists to USD/CAD especially 1.2500’s on a break of 1.2754. Look for a move lower to 1.2830 then 1.2792.

NZD/USD remains not a thrilling currency pair. Overall break point for higher is 0.7147 and a move higher is expected and targets 0.7069 and 0.7079. Above 0.7147 targets 0.7184.

Overall USD is heading for corrections and Non USD higher to solve overbought and oversold conditions rather than any type of trend.

Pertinent to USD this week is first Secured Overnight Funding Rate 1 month and 3 month Futures contracts set to begin trading Monday May 7. SOFR was introduced as a substitute/ replacement to Libor and first launched April 3rd at 1.80 and since dropped to 1.70 against Friday’s close at 1.74. Fed Funds on the other side closed at 1.70 in 9 of the past 10 days. The overall effects to USD so far is irrelevant, so far.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The currency price is again the topic.

How about the number 2500. The EUR/USD bottomed at 1.03 and headed to a correction but to where was the end of the correction. EUR/USD 1.03 plus 2500 = 1.2800. GBP/USD bottomed at 1.1900. GBP/USD 1.1900 plus 2500 = 1.4400.
How is Danske, Society General and Bank of America doing against EUR/USD 1.3000. Will USD/JPY see 116 in 3 months as is the current prognostication for Bank of America. Of course not and don’t push your luck to 113.

A 116 USD/JPY assumes EUR/USD 1.1300’s. EUR/USD 1.1200’s and 1.1300’s are absolute bottom of the range while 113 USD/JPY is top. Do we know what we are doing.

From 1998 to 2008 and from 2008 to 2015, the number 2500 held deep significance but how it stacks up today and how close is 2500 is unknown. To know 2500 is to enter and calculate many numbers and most won’t perform the necessary work.
USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs are creatures of a far different animal than its counterpart currency pairs as 2500 requires a constant adjustment. Again, this is much work to know.

See EUR/AUD target at 1.5939 Wedneday. Its traded to 1.5863. It also required an adjustment. Remember the overall target at 1.5738 from 1.6100’s. Don’t lose sight. See EUR/NZD 1.7027 target, it traded to 1.7006 and required adjustment.
What are prices banks trade. Always the wrong price as they don’t trade central bank numbers but trade their own thin air, phantom numbers.

Short term simple moving averages. How do you know the price of the average is correct. How is 1 average overbought or oversold but a complementary average reveals no information to overbought / oversold.

Option expiries, NY Cut, Order Boards, a currency price bid or offered as was reported by Bank of America no longer serves as relevant in currency markets today due to the new 2 year price structure. Structure, it exists.

Far more to markets and prices requires attention. . Forward Points are located between yields and throws off slightly forward exchange rates to spot prices.

EUR/USD, high side target 1.2032 and lows on a break of 1.1951, watch 1.1943, 1.1928 and 1.1913. Above break point 1.2154 and watch the 5 year average now at 1.1945.

GBP/USD high side target 1.3623 to 1.3632 and lows at 1.3528, 1.3511 and big break at 1.3503 to target 1.3494.

GBP/JPY break point is located at 150.44 and upside target is near 148.72 and bottom near 147.37.

USD/JPY 5 year average now 110.03. USD/JPY traded to 110.02 and brought markets to the brink then dropped. Break point below now 108.82, upside target see 109.60’s and solid supports at 108.92, and 108.86.

USD/CAD break point now 1.2751, sell rallies. Since March 14, USD/CAD remained traded in small ranges.

Brian Twomey

Brian Twomey Trade Signal Service

The question 15 years ago in 2004 as I began to trade currencies was what made the lights blink. As an adjunct college professor for the past 20+ years, I devoted my life and time in between class schedules to answer this question. Growth and answers began.

By 2008, I began to write as a freelancer for Stocks and Commodities and Investopedia about currency prices and all facets to currency markets. The highlight was the Welles Wilder interview and its still remembered by many to this very day. Later, articles were published in Fxtrader magazine.

In 2011, Inside the Currency Market was written and published by John Wiley and Bloomberg Press. Book sales never materialized and remained non existent to this day despite rave reviews and even a stunningly great review by Yale Professor and market trader, Brenda Jubin.

In 2012, I joined the Fxstreet network with assumption to sell books

Fxstreet 2012, I traded live and hit 25 specific price targets in front of 100,000 viewers. The word target and target prices failed to reach the trade lexicon in 2012. The result was 25 trades, 36 no sleep days and 2500 pips.

The 2012 trades here and Fxstreet CEO Francesc written words https://twbrian.wordpress.com/?s=20+reasons+to+visit+fxstreet.

As I was consumed with 100’s of daily e-mails, I assisted all and wrote Using the Z Score to trade FX in 2012 / 2013. Zero interest and no sales was the result and same as Inside the Currency Market.

2012, longtime friend Peter Wadkins from Thomson Reuters began to include me and my FX analysis/ trades in his commentaries but with hope for recognition and a chance to work with FX professionals. Never materialized.

2015, Academic paper was written to highlight by Regression analysis in 2 separate periods how EUR/JPY switches allegiance from EUR/USD to USD/JPY. The paper here http://www.scientificpapers.org/wp-content/files/1528_Brian_Twomey.pdf

15 years later after intense growth, I now run a small Signal trade service for 2 years now and open for interested.

Trades are offered for longer term to include weeks to days and daily trades for day traders. Day trades are based on an interest rate system and is deadly accurate as was the 2012 trades while longer term trades are based on what I will call simply a Moving Average system. All my own inventions based on intense research but all extremely accurate.

The charge is $300 per month for any currency pair and sent twice daily every trading day. We currently trade 8 pairs as follows, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/EUR which allows trades in EUR/AUD. The charge is for accuracy, time and ability to get the trades done quickly with profit.

If interested, I’m Brian Twomey, contact brian@btwomey.com.

As well open for any serious suggestions, inquiries. However, respectfully, not open for get rich quick schemes or overnight Warren Buffet types. Come sincere and honest, experienced or beginner and I will assist in the profits.

Thank you and respectfully, Brian
Below is from my blog twbrian.wordpress where anyone will find research, trades, analysis, education.

 

Trades
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Interested in taking advantage of this prime opportunity, contact me below:
brian (@) btwomey

EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

EUR/CAD achieved mentioned 1.5300’s weeks later. EUR/CAD contains deep problems and GBP/CAD is the better trade.
EUR/AUD from Monday’s post broke 1.6037 then target at 1.5939 traded to 1.5960.

Overbought USD/CAD entry at 1.2860 and 1.2899 traded to 1.2915 and achieved lows at 1.2804 for + 100 ish pips. What’s 100 ish pips is 100 of 300 available. Again, nothing special in USD/CAD except quick trades. Break points are now located from 1.2741 to 1.3049 and USD/CAD remains in sell rally mode.

EUR/NZD now trades at critical 1.7089. Next target is located at 1.7027. Again, EUR/NZD is a far better pair to trade than GBP/NZD as entry, exits and targets are crystal clear. Overall range is located from 1.7240 to 1.7089 for 151 pips. Below 1.7089, range becomes 1.7089 to 1.6984 for 105 pips. Overall range is 255 pips but split between break points.

EUR/USD 5 year average at 1.1947 matches against USD/JPY’s 5 year at 110.01.

USD/JPY solid break points today above are located at 110.04, 110.08, 110.17, and 110.43. USD/JPY must sustain 110.01 then next target becomes 110.95 but 110.01 assumes EUR/USD breaks 1.1947 and its not likely today. The problem with USD/JPY this week is any price above 109.69 enters a gray area and its not a trade able zone. The overall path to break 110.01 is not clear.
USD/JPY below break points is now 108.71.

EUR/USD today is well contained at 1.1977, 1.1970, 1.1955 and ironically 1.1947. EUR/USD today has every ability to trade to 1.1947 but no ability to break and hold. Two factors against a further break is deeply oversold EUR/USD and Euro interest rates radically dived overnight. A radical dive or radical move overall in Euro interest rates is a non existent concept. Even when the Fed raised, Euro interest rates remained at current levels. Don’t take 1.1947 lightly.

EUR/USD break point today is found at 1.2184 and an upside target right around 1.2058 on a break of 1.2052.

GBP/USD today upside targets finds massive resistance from 1.3660 to 1.3674.

GBP/JPY break point is now 150.79.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, G10, Currency Pair Selection: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Currency pair selection in relation to a 50 and 75 range factor means overall currency pair choices are incredibly slim. By process of elimination and to account for overall ranges and trades to move 100 and 150 pips, this week picks are GBP/CAD, EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and against a deep inspection to EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD as well as AUD/JPY longs.

EUR/AUD overall remained a constant pair since March 14th. EUR/CAD despite a miserable currency pair and choice will remain a constant pair only because of overbought status otherwise this pair loses any consideration from now to doomsday.

USD/CAD shorts as well is considered this week but only because of skyrocket overbought status. Recall March 14 and the 600 pip drop from 1.3100’s. Written was USD/CAD was dead and eliminated from long term consideration as the range was 300 pips. Now 6 weeks later, USD/CAD remains dead inside a range of 300 pips from 1.2722 to 1.2926 and top of the channel at 1.3049.

Nothing special in USD/CAD yet USD/CAD as a choice always moves far better than USD/JPY and USD/CHF because of CAD wide ranges, good movements, target responsive and CAD triggers contain miles of difference from JPY and CHF to allow its movements.

By process of overall elimination, 28 pairs are available to trade in the G10 space but many pairs are slow movers and eliminated from consideration. USD/CHF and CHF pairs are rarely regarded and this strikes CAD/CHF, EUR/CHF, AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF and GBP/CHF. Only regard to CHF pairs is trade as complements but rarely trades for long term consideration.

EUR/GBP, AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD as well eliminates although we caught a 200 ish pip trade in EUR/GBP and minor trade in AUD/NZD. Both EUR/GBP and AUD/NZD contains deep internal problems while AUD/CAD was designed as a non mover.

In JPY cross pairs, EUR/JPY is eliminated as the range is 128 to 133.11 tops but below 133.11 must break 132.74 and 132.44 then comes the 14 year average at 131.56 and 5 year at 130.85. AUD/JPY remains deeply oversold and trades at the lowest rung to its long term range. CHF/JPY and NZD/JPY in the current slow move environment lack any consideration.

GBP/JPY trades on a far different plane than its counterparts as movements are built into its price. Current 150.88 must break for higher in GBP/JPY.

EUR/NZD clearly beats GBP/NZD as GBP/NZD contains skitzy qualities by itself and against NZD/USD. GBP/NZD trades 300 pips from 1.9200’s to 1.9500’s and overall trades in a larger correction below 2.0698. The EUR/NZD trade is well established in movements and break points and may qualify as a continued trade next week.

GBP/CAD’s break point at 1.7900’s was clear and today it trades at 1.7500’s. GBP/CAD should also qualify as next weel’s trade.
EUR/AUD clearly beats GBP/AUD as EUR/AUD is well established in movements and break points while GBP/AUD was never designed to move. Consider weekend cocktail party information below from the glorious days of currency trading in the 1920’s and 1930’s.

AUD/GBP 3/31/1919 traded 0.3333 or GBP/AUD 3.0003. By 6/30/ 1931, AUD/GBP was 0.3846 or GBP/AUD 2.6001 and moved 4000 pips in 12 years or 300 pips per year. Today GBP/AUD trades 1.8204 and moved lower by 7700 pips since 1931 or 87 years.

To ensure cocktail party success, here’s AUD/USD, AUD/USD 1919 to June 6/30/1931, Ranged 2.4300, 2.2300, 2.2200. By June 1931, AUD/USD traded to 1.8000. Current 0.7500’s represents a 99 year downtrend, lowest in History.

To restate and end. Trades must contain 100 to 150 pip targets or no trade exists, many pairs fail qualification currently. Selection is key and only offered in a few currency pairs. A 300 pip range is quite dead if considered as 150 pips on 1 side to trade upon a move from significant break points.

Trades.

DXY recall 2 weeks ago the 5 year average at 91.45 and DXY now trades 92.05. Lends deep consideration to EUR/USD’s 5 year at 1.1949 and USD/JPY at 110.01. A 5 year average break offers clearer direction and more available pairs to trade yet a 5 year average doesn’t contain the period change power to a 10 year average break. Its just means established direction and wider ranges.

EUR/USD 1.1949 below but is contained today at 1.2029, 1.2013 and 1.1998. Break point above now 1.2188, drops 25 pips from 1.2213.

GBP/USD. Watch bottoms at 1.3695 and 1.3678 and break point now at 1.3886, drops 29 pips from 1.3715.

GBP/JPY contained below by 149.87 and 149.68.

USD/JPY break point now 108.68 and below contained by 109.02 and 108.89. Recall above 109.43 and 109.69.

AUD/USD break point 0.7702, belongs at 0.7649 and above 0.7702 then 0.7838. At 0.7100 is loacted at deepest extreme prices and I wouldn’t advise pushing the envelope.

NZD/USD must break above 0.7175. Contained to below at 0.7012, 0.7003 and 0.6994.

 

Brian Twomey