GBP/JPY 66 Years

GBP/JPY 66 year lows for GBPJPY located at 119.30 at january 2012.
Post 2008 market crash range from lows 119.30 -130.00’s and many averages in between.
Precedent exists for lower easily however GBPCHF and GBPEUR trade at or below first ever recorded prices in 66 years.
And GBPUSD next average from 1984 is located at 1.1853.
Why GBPJPY approaches historic lows is because GBPUSD and GBPJPY are the same currency pair, always Correlates together extremely high and trades together as solid brothers, a marriage since the 1930’s under the 1930’s gold standard.
And since the BOJ pegged USDJPY to GBPJPY and Gold during the 1930’s.
Yet another  failed BOJ experiment as is their 100 year standard practice.
GBPJPY major break Point for higher is located at fast falling line at 137.14. Above Targets its longer term target at 147.00’s.
From current prices, 140.00’s can trade easily.
To technical analysis, as all GBP pairs drop, ranges expand, quite extraordinary circumstances.
Normally seen is range contraction. Means one spark and GBP Pairs are susceptible to 2 and 300 pip moves effortlessly
       Brian Twomey
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FX Prices and Currency Market Deviations

Normal traded currency Markets taken as a price whole deviate about 200 – 400 high side pips. This is fairly standard year to year. Small deviations however turn into large deviations then revert back to small deviations again. Then the cycle repeats again. Every year and  once in every year, deviation opportunity strikes and this is the actual time to trade in any given year as the year’s best and easiest trades become available. An entire year of trading can exclude in favor of the year’s easiest trades as traders will stack money faster than has ever been seen.

Few traders fully understand such concepts as the game of trading is actually Ping Pong matches between and among currency prices as well as USD Vs Non USD paired relationships to cross pairs. Stock indices contain the same deviated abstractions but at most is 600 points. From the 2893 SPX top for example, SPX is allowed a deviation to 3400’s.

The requirement is understand how to calculate deviations, understand long / short strategies then pick most opportune pairs to trade.

Last March / April 35 posted trades were traded against the year’s deviation at 600 pips. Deviated were majority cross pairs while USD and non USD pairs were fine. This year’s deviation majority are located in USD V Non USD Pairs while most cross pairs are fine. Fine means non deviated pairs remain stasis to allow deviate pairs to perform their work to normalization. Next year, Currency cross pairs will deviate. It takes approximately 1 to 2 quarters to deviate and 1 full quarter to normalize. Best and easiest money trades will last generally 1 quarter and many trades will exist.

GBP and EUR always deviate most against NZD’s and AUD‘s small deviations.

GBPUSD is easiest to measure 1500 pips against its 1.3600 long term target, Taken from its perfect opposite USDCAD 1.3200’s Vs GBPUSD 1.2100’s, an 1100 deviation. USDCAD‘s 1.2800’s target or 400 pips Vs 1100 -1500 GBPUSD informs higher GBP contains a long way and is the pair to trade due to its wide deviation. 

A long term target represents the normalization price.

In the GBP category, deviated pairs are as follows GBPUSD 1500, GBPJPY 1800 pips vs 147.00 target, GBPCHF 1300 pips Vs its 1.3200’s target. GBPEUR. Normal yet extremely low prices are GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD and GBPAUD.

Most deviated is GBP/USD and GBP/JPY then GBP/CHF for an average deviation of 1533 pips.

EURUSD is deviated 600 ish pips vs long term 1600’s target.

EUR/JPY is low yet deviated by the same 600 pips to its 124.00’s target.

EURCHF is deviated by 200 ish pips to 1.1200 target.

EUR/CAD sits just fine yet low.

EUR/NZD sits just fine.

EUR/AUD is deviated by 700 pips V long ter, 1.5600’s target.

EUR/GBP is deviated 600 pips to its 0.8500 target.

Most deviated is EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP for an average deviation of 525 pips.

NZD

NZD/USD is deviated 300 pips to its 0.6800 target.

NZD/CAD sits just fine.

NZD/JPY is deviated 600 pips from its 75.00 target.

NZD/CHF Not sure, never a good trade to deviations.

AUD.

AUD/USD is deviated  600 pips to its 0.7400 target.

AUD/JPY is deviated 300 pips to its 75.00 target.

AUD/CHF deviated by 500 pips.

AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD not sure.

Most deviated AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and AUD/CHF for an average deviation of 466 pips.

USD

USD/CAD is deviated 400 pips to 1.2800 Target.

CAD/JPY is deviated by 500 pips to its 75.00 target.

CAD/CHF sits fairly fine.

USD/JPY is deviated by 400 pips to its 110.00 target.

CHF/JPY is deviated by 200 pips to its 110.00 target.

Most deviated as a whole are Non USD currency pairs and respective JPY cross pairs.

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

 

 

 

17 Currency Pair Trade Results

Fully confident in Trading abilities, 17 Currency Pair Trades to include exact entries and targets posted this week. A multi year goal was forecast perfectly all 28 Currency pair entry and targets but weekend time failed to permit the enormous time and calculations to factor all 28.

Below are trade results per currency pair, pip counts, entries, targets and weekly ranges. This serves to answer how good were the trades. Normal weeks are issued 2 way trades however this week offered only 1 way trades in trend direction. Pip counts factored based on entry instruction. Personal interest is trade performance, accuracy and models rather than pip counts. Failure to achieve full targets saw failed at reported “Must Cross” Points.

Overall Highlights

9 of 17 Currency trades achieved perfect to near perfect targets. All entries were perfect to near perfect except EURUSD and off 50 ish Pips for GBPNZD. EUR/USD recovered to week near entry with a 4 pip loss. No losses were seen all week except EURUSD.
Long time followers would automatically know from past experience, off entry against a known target means add 1 lot to trade to target, small profit or break even. Only EUR/AUD and USD/CAD went beyond weekly target.

CADJ/PY and NZD/JPY hardly participated in this week’s trades. USD/CAD and USD/JPY achieved perfect targets but 20 ish pip miss on entry. The commonality to missed entry was 20 ish pips.

The Trades

GBP/AUD Entry 1.7721, 1.7697 to target 1.7942. Weekly Range 1.7671 – 1.7983. From 1.7697 entry to 1.7942 target +245 Pips.

EUR/AUD Entry 1.5904, 1.5868 to target 1.6012. Weekly range 1.5895 – 1.6090. From 1.5904 entry to 1.6012 target +108 Pips.

GBP/NZD. Entry 1.8461, 1.8428 to target 1.8727. Weekly range 1.8368 to 1.8722. From 1.8428 to 1.8722 + 294 Pips.

USD/CAD. Entry 1.2959, 1.3017 to target 1.3133. Weekly range 1.3039 to 1.3184. From 1.3039 to 1.3133 + 94 pips. Questionable to count overall on 22 pip miss.

AUD/USD. Entry 0.7117 to target 0.6977. Weekly range 0.7055 to 0.6926. From 0.7117 to 0.6977 +39 pips.

EUR/NZD. Entry 1.6576, 1.6550 to target 1.6786. Weekly range 1.6527 to 1.6764. from 1.6550 to target 1.6764 + 214 pips.

NZD/USD. Entry 0.6772 to target 0.6709. Weekly range 0.6786 to 0.6640. From 0.6772 to target 0.6709 + 63 pips.

EUR/CHF. Entry 1.0000 , 1.0990 to target 1.1127, Weekly Range 1.,0962 to 1.1054. From 1.0990 to 1.1054 + 64 pips.

EUR/JPY. Entry 120.64, 120.31 to target 121.93. Weekly range 120.07 to 121.37. From 120.31 to 121.37 +106 Pips.

USD/JPY. Entry 107.46, 107.23 to target 108.39. Weekly range 107.70 to 108.74. From 107.70 to 108.39 target +69 pips. Missed entry 24 pips.

GBP/USD. Entry 1.2453, 1.2412 to target 1.2610. Weekly range 1.2417 to 1.2522. From 1.2417 to 1.2522 +105 pips.

GBP/JPY. Entry 134.49, 134.13 to target 136.35. Weekly range 134.26 to 135.67. from 134.26 to 135.67 +141 pips.

EUR/USD. Entry 1.1205, 1.1191 to target 1.1254. Weekly range 1.1101 to 1.1187. Entry 1.1191 recovered to 1.1187. Terrible trade.

GBP/CHF. Entry 1.2235, 1.2206 to target 1.2440. Weekly range 1.2224 to 1.2368. from 1.2224 to 1.2368 = 144 pips.

GBPCAD. Entry 1.6296, 1.6273 to target 1.6521. Weekly range 1.6257 to 1.6441. From 1.6273 to 1.6441 +168 pips.

NZD/JPY. Entry 71.49, 71.27 to target 72.42. Not traded. Entry 72.81 to target 73.88. Weekly Range 73.24 to 72.18.

CAD/JPY. Entry 81.96, 81.79 to target 82.33. Not traded. Entry 82.51 to target 83.21. The weekly pivot point to trade was 82.51.

15 currency pairs participated in this week’s trades. To exit at target, at market high or lows or Must Cross Points accounts for 15 trades at 1735 pips.

17 Currency Pairs, 17 Entries and Targets

1st and last time shot. Time didn’t permit all 28 currency pairs otherwise, I would’ve posted. For trades Brian@btwomey.com

NZD/USD Short 0.6772 to target 0.6709. Must cross 0.6730. Long term target 0.6882. Trade =63 pips.

AUD/USD Short 0.7085 to target 0.7027. Must cross 0.7056. Short below 0.7117 to target 0.6978. Trade =58 pips

EUR/CHF Long 1.000 and 1.0990 to target 1.1127. Must cross 1.1085. Long above 1.1170 to target 1.1212. Long term target 1.1252.

EUR/JPY Long 120.64 and 120.31 to target 121.93. Must cross 121.29 and 121.61. Long term target 124.99.

USD/JPY Long 107.46 and 107.23 to target 108.39. Must cross 107.93. Long term target 110.10.

EUR/NZD. 1.6839, above targets 1.6944 and 1.7049.

Strategy. Long 1.6576 and 1.6550 if seen to target 1.6786. Must cross 1.6629 and 1.6734. Weekly strategy.

GBP/NZD. 1.8927, above targets 1.9193 and 1.9459.

Strategy. Long 1.8461 and 1.8428 if seen to target 1.8727. Must cross 1.8561, 1.8661 and 1.8694. Weekly strategy.

EUR/AUD. 1.6049, below targets 1.5832 and 1.5724.

Strategy. Long 1.5904 and 1.5868 if seen to target 1.6012. Must cross 1.5940 and 1.5976. Long above 1.6048 to target 1.6120.     Must cross 1.6084. Short only strategy.

GBP/USD.  1.2658, above targets 1.2765, 1.2822, 1.2988 and 1.3150. Long term 1.3700’s.

Strategy. Long 1.2453 and 1.2412 if seen to target 1.2610. Must cross 1.2494 and 1.2552. Long above 1.2658 to target 1.2699.  Long only strategy.

GBP/JPY. Break Point 137.82, above targets 140.75, 143.68 and eventual 147.00’s.

Strategy. Long 134.49 and 134.13 to target 136.35. Must cross 134.88 and 135.61. Long only strategy.

EUR/USD. Break  1.1261, above targets 1.1317 and massive lines at 1.1358 and 1.1384.

Strategy. Long 1.1205 and 1.1191 to target 1.1254. Must cross 1.1233. Long above 1.1261 to target 1.1317. Must cross 1.1289. Long only strategy.

GBP/CHF. Break  1.2557, above targets 1.2791, 1.3025 and eventual 1.3200’s.

Strategy. Long 1.2235 and 1.2206 if seen to target 1.2440. Must Cross 1.2323 and 1.2382. Long only strategy.

USD/CAD. Break 1.3192, above targets 1.3307, below targets 1.2959 and 1.2843.

Strategy. Long 1.3017 and 1.2959 to target 1.3133. Must cross 1.3075. Long if seen above 1.3191 to target 1.3249. Short only strategy.

GBP/CAD. Break 1.6701, above targets 1.7061.

Strategy. Long 1.6296 and 1.6273 if seen to target 1.6521. Must cross 1.6341 and 1.6431. Long only strategy.

NZD/JPY. Break 72.81, above targets 73.66 and eventual 75.29.

Strategy. Long 71.49 and 71.27 to target 72.42. Must cross 71.93 and 72.37. Long above 72.81 to target 73.88. Must cross 73.24. Long only strategy.

CAD/JPY. Break  82.51, above targets 83.21, 83.58 and eventual 85.00’s.

Strategy. Long 81.96 and 81.79 to target 82.33. Must cross 82.15. Long above 82.51 to target 83.21. Must cross 82.86. Long only strategy.

GBP/AUD. 1.8039, above targets 1.8234.

Strategy. Long 1.7721 and 1.7697 to target 1.7942. Must cross 1.7844 and 1.7892. Weekly strategy.

 

 

Weekly Trades USD/JPY and Cross Pairs

One time shot to earn 886 weekly pips. For trades contact brian@btwomey.com

The JPY pairs to trade in order for maximum trade pips are as follows: GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, USD/JPY, CHF/JPY and CAD/JPY.

Following are 7 weekly trades, 7 entries, 7 targets. Brief trade methodologies are offered as well as longer term targets for traders interested in longer term hold periods. As usual no charts, graphs nor stops needed and no reference to the latest market talk which serves no purpose to price trading except to talk.

USD/JPY offers practically nothing to all JPY cross pairs because on its own, it lacks range. Absolute bottom is located at 106.02, up 83 pips from last July at 105.19.

The weekly break point for higher /lower is located at 109.01, above targets 109.93 then 110.10. Massive resistance is located at 110.28, 110.40 and 110.85.

Long 107.40 and 107.17 to target 108.73. USD/JPY must cross higher 108.09 and 108.45. Longer term target 110.10. Trade 107.40 to 108.73 contains 135 pips.

GBP/JPY. Long 135.42 and 135.12 if seen to target 137.77. Must cross 135.72 and 136.74. This trade contains 235 pips yet long for 235 pips is minuscule in relation to the 147.00 longer term target. Brexit severely holds GBP/JPY and all GBP pairs from much higher levels.

EUR/JPY. January Flash Crash lows, 118.00’s, Closed 121.58, Break Point 122.91. Target 124.88, Massive Brick Walls 125.72 and many 126.00’s. Won’t break anytime soon. Long only strategy to 124, deeply oversold.

Long 121.10 to target 122.50. Must cross to target 121.71 and 122.10. Longer term target above 122.91 is located at 124.88.

EUR/JPY must and will trade to 124.88.This trade contains 140 pips.

AUD/JPY. Long 75.24 and 74.94 to target 76.06. Must cross to target 75.24 and 75.80. Above 76.37 targets 77.49. Longer term target 81.27. This trade contains 82 pips.

NZD/JPY. Long 71.38 and 71.13 if seen to target 72.39. Must cross 71.64 and 72.14. Long above 72.64 to target 73.63. Must cross 73.13. This trade contains 101 pips.

CHF/JPY. Absolute bottom is located at 106.03.

Long 109.35 and 109.12 to target 109.61. Must cross to target 109.35 and 109.57. Above 109.80 targets 110.24. This trade contains 40 pips from 109.12.

CAD/JPY. Long 81.81 to target 82.46. Must cross 82.04 and 82.26. Long above 82.49 to target 83.37. Must cross 82.93 and 83.15. Longer term target 85.00’s. This trade contains 65 and 88 pips.

Overall trade result is 886 pips.

 

Brian Twomey

FX Trade Results Feb 22 -July 12

Actual profit Pips = 24,832

Actual Pip Profit weekly Average 1251

We profit on Average 1251 pips per week on 12 currency pairs. We maintain profit at least 50% of all traded pips on 12 currency pairs. See 2 weeks ago in weekly post for Math based on 50% Traded pips.

Weekly Pip Totals 19 Weeks

942

869

911

1450

1203

1187

2

1162

126

1979

794

957

1033

1127

1700

1962

1979

1800

2592 =1251

 

Brian Twomey

FX Trade Results June 8 -12

EURAUD and NZDJPY trades never triggered.
GBPJPY offered 2 trades same entries, rare day.
GBP Pairs still deeply contained, obviously by Targets.
EURNZD triggered today.
Call for trades if interested.
Entries and Targets Below 
GBPJPY 135.48 and 135.10, Target 138.19 Actual 135.40 -136.04, +64 pips. 135.08, to 136.01 +93 pips. Total 157 pips
GBPCHF 1.2382, 1.2331, Target 1.2590, Actual 1.2362 -1.2412, +50 pips.
GBPCAD 1.6341, 1.6306, Target 1.6659, Actual 1.6328 -1.6425, +97 pips
USDCAD 1.3035, 1.3009, Target 1.3140, Actual 1.3050 -1.3143, +90 Pips
EURUSD 1.1216, 1.1201, Target 1.1276, Actual 1.1192 -1.1284 on Instruction +75 pips
GBPUSD 1.2492, 1.2461, Target 1.2708, Actual 1.2440 -1.2570, +130 pips
CADJPY 83.22, 83.45, Target 82.51, Actual 83.19 -82.63 +56 pips.
GBPAUD 1.7925, 1.7897, Target 1.8170, Actual 1.7899 -1.8042 +143 pips
EURAUD 1.6010, 1.5983, target 1.6090 Not triggered
NZDJPY 70.96, 70.68, Target 72.18, Not triggered.
GBPNZD 1.8843, 1.8804, Target 1.9079, Actual 1.8810 -1.8954, +144 pips
EURNZD 1.6848, 1.6799, Target 1.6897, Actual 1.6838 Triggered today, ongoing.
   Brian Twomey, Contact for trades if interested

GBP/USD, Cross Pairs and Brexit

On year 3 year of the Brexit anniversary asks the question how devastating was the GBP fall. The analytical answer must view in the context of the 2500 pip parameter for the most widely traded exchange rate combinations of EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY from 2000 -2008 and 2008 – 2015.

A 2500 pip move in any direction was met not only by a brick wall of resistance but a large correction was the only alternative for a long period of time until or unless the parameter walls moved to allow a further continuation past the 2500 inflection point. GBP/USD however due to its wider ranges is afforded nearly a 3000 pip parameter yet 2500 generally serves its purpose to comply with corresponding non GBP currency pairs.

GBP/USD fell from 1.5000’s -1.1800’s or roughly a 3200 pip move and now sits at 1.2500’s. The 66 year historical context to 1.2500’s dating to 1953 is 1.2500 is a non existent price and never before seen except for the August 1984 -May 1985 Plaza Accords when the G5 nations engineered USD higher. GBP/USD traded then 1.04 lows to 1.1900 highs. Subtract the Plaza Accords equation then 1.2500’s now trades in uncharted territory.

From the 2008 crash highs at 1.8891 to 1.2513 lows, the 11 year mid point is located at 1.5702. The 66 year mid point from 2.8151 -1.0438 lows is located at 1.9294. From the 1972 free float from 2.6189 -1.2513 lows, the mid point is located at 1.9351.

The BOE’s 21 year governing interest rate, Sonia, traded 4.9970 at the 2008 crash and dropped to 0.4099 April 2009 and its 11 year mid point is located at 2.70. From April 2009 -June 2016, Sonia monthly averages reported a paltry range from 0.4099 – 0.5486 for a 0.4792 mid point. Upon the Brexit announcement, Sonia dropped from 0.4598 highs -0.2106 lows for a 0.3352 mid point. Sonia now trades since September 2018 at 0.70 and hardly moves from its 0.70 base and 0.70 is a long way from the 21 year mid point at 3.88.

How devastating was Brexit is explained by GBP/USD, Sonia and headline interest rates trade at historic lows never before seen in the UK’s rich and glorious history.

Forecasts

GBP/USD to reach a fraction of normalization must trade to a minimum of 1.2900’s against a longer term target at 1.3600’s. The governing average today is located at 1.4700’s and 1.5200’s 1 year ago. Currently 1.2500’s is deeply oversold. We’re looking at absolute bottoms at the 1.2300 -1.2400 vicinity.

GBP/AUD trades below its vital break point average at 1.8500’s but at 1.7900’s faces its range low point at 1.7400’s. GBP/AUD is a range currency pair for the most part but afforded wide latitude within its ranges and once traded 1976 lows at 1.2700’s but lived the majority of its 66 year history at 2.000;s.

GBP/JPY must trade to its minimum normalization point at 142.00’s and 143.00’s against its long term target at 147.00’s. Historical 66 year first ever lows were seen in 2011 -2012 from 117.00’s -126.00’s.

GBP/NZD must trade to ts minimum normalization point at 1.9300’s. GBP/NZD at 1.8800’s is the result of the 1300 pip drop from 2.0100’s. At 1.9300’s is fairly respectable for GBP/NZD.

GBP/CAD must trade to 1.7100’s just to reach a respectable normalization. GBP/CAD’s 66 year history traded 2011 -2013 lows from 1.5200’s to 1.6400’s. At current 1.6300’s, GBP/CAD trade its post crash lows.

GBP/CHF must trade to 1.2800’s against a longer term target at 1.3200’s. At 1.2300’s, GBP/CHF trades in uncharted territory in relation to its 66 year history which began at 11.0000’s and 12.000’s. Only one time, Oct 2010, GBP/CHF closed at 1.2100’s. In 66 years, GBPCHF downtrend has been slow and steady and now trades at its lowest ever seen points. Brexit allowed a continuation to the downtrend.

 

Brian Twomey

FXTrade Results Feb 22 -July 5

Actual profit Pips = 23,890

Actual Pip profit Weekly Average =1268 Pips

We profit on Average 1268 pips per week on 12 currency pairs. We maintain profit at least 50% of all traded pips on 12 currency pairs. See last weekly post for Math based on 50% Traded pips.

Weekly Pips totals 18 weeks

869

911,

1450,

1203

1187

2

1162

126

1979

794

957

1033

1127

1700

1962

1979

1800

2592 = 1268

 

Brian Twomey    brian@btwomey.com

FX Trade Results July 1 -5th

+869 pips, 12 Currency Pairs, 12 Trades.
Currency pairs are seriously mis positioned.
EURNZD never triggered, GBPCHF lifted and fell not close to entry.
Monday and Tuesday GBPCAD and USDCAD barely earned gains.
GBPUSD from entry earned 15 pips, not counted in total. GBPJPY barely gained 41 Pips.
GBPUSD from 1.2900’s traveling down deep oversold road, quite dangerous situation.
Entry and targets below based on weekly instruction
EURAUD 1.6230, 1.6267, Target 1.6176 Actual 1.6258 -1.6176 +82 Pips. 1.6159, Target 1.6013 Actual 1.6159 =1.6024 #135 Pips
GBPNZD 1.8895 Target 1.9167, Actual 1.8837 -1.8962, +125 Pips
GBPAUD 1.8068, 1.8072, Target 1.8233, Actual 1.8043 -1.8157, +114
GBPCHF 1.2344, 1.2319 Target 1.2601 Actual 1.2405 -1.2497. Trade Not triggered
GBPJPY 136.67, 136.63, Target 138.66, Actual 136.74 -137.15 +41 pips.
GBPCAD 1.6598 1.6542, Target 1.6927 Actual 1.6551 -1.6609 +58 Pips Miserable situation.
USDCAD 1.3063, 1.3042, target 1.3247, Actual 1.3069 -1.3136 +67 Pips
GBPUSD 1.2648, 1.2622 Target 1.2712, Actual 1.2632 -1.2647. Not counted.
EURUSD 1.1389, 1.1411, Target 1.1308. Actual 1.1370 -1.1308, +62 Pips. 1.1303, Target 1.1260, Actual 1.1303 -1.1255, On instruction +43 Pips
EURNZD 1.6744, 1.6761, Target 1.6933, Not triggered.
CADJPY 82.96, 83.27, Target 82.34 Actual 82.89 -82.34 + 55 pips. 82.05, Target 81.08 not yet triggered.
NZDJPY 73.16, 73.49 target 72.83 Actual 72.92 -72.83 +9 Pips. 72.50, Target 71.72 Actual 72.50 -71.72, +78 pips and ongoing trade.
      Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and the ECB

Previous comments to ECB comatose was incredibly wrong because EURUSD and ECB context to create characteristically a permanent Neutral Currency was missed. Yet neutrality is performed daily through non move able interest rates.

I desperately desired to state in my article the ECB is more interested in EUR neutrality rather than its price, or new highs and lows but my article was sent to fxstreet. And we all know what fxstreet primitive collusion delusion is all about.

The EUR neutrality is permanent and won’t ever leave its Neutral created foundations. New highs and lows are seen only in the context of neutrality, EUR price position and where neutral position began is paramount to trade EUR and all EUR pairs.

Ex. 1.1411 was a new high but it ended a 5 day daily run. Daily prices today operate on a 5 day up and down scale as opposed to 14 and 17 days pre 2016 and ECB new interest rate scheme.

1.1411 contained no meaning as it occurred on the 5th up day. Smart ECB‘s 5 year plan since 2014. 1. Go negative Interest rates 2. 2016 Redesign interest rates 3. Maintain neutral but shorten trading Ranges.

The message was EUR lower for longer yet the ECB gave EUR its funeral and sent it to its proper resting place. To Trade EUR properly is imperative to understand how and why neutrality operates with all EUR pairs price context.

 

Brian Twomey

EURUSD Trends/Turns: 2013 -2015 and 2018 -2019

To forecast tops and bottoms, below is the methodology and it was employed to accurately call the EUR/USD top at 1.3900’s.

This post is a re creation of the 2013 – 2015 view to Peaks and troughs, tops and bottoms for daily, weekly and monthly charts. The difference today is the view was assessed from 6/29/18 to 6/28/19 for a 1 year inspection.

The character of the EUR on any chart since inception hasn’t changed as EUR/USD is traditionally and invented to trade as a highly neutral currency pair and rarely falls outside of its neutrality. Any deviation to neutrality always corrects to assure EUR trades neutral.

Neutrality for EUR/USD means an equal number of up and down days, weeks and months match almost perfectly. New highs and lows never assumes an automatic continuation on its price path. The question for traders must be how many peaks and valleys were involved in the price move to determine if a continuation or retrace will develop.

How many peaks and valleys may or may not mean the EUR trades within a few pips to its previous highs and lows. The EUR contains a distinct habit to bring this question to the brink.

The EUR/USD has radically changed from its 2013 -2015 trading days as 2013 -2015 afforded far wider ranges, trends and trade opportunities. The EUR/USD from 2018 to 2019 revealed daily and weekly trend / turns occurs much quicker due to depressed ranges and trends. Peaks and valleys were shortened by 1/2 in 2018 -2019 from its 2013 -2015 counterpart. Traders must be quick on the trigger to catch the move.

Daily 2013-2015 Vs 2018 -2019.

In 2013 -2015 for example, 71 down days total was recorded with 4 significant peaks. Down days turned every 17.75 days on average. A total of 74 up days saw 5 significant peaks with an average turn every 14.8 days.

If daily up days to down days are viewed, the EUR/USD trend/peaks turn every 16.1 days total.

In contrast, the 2018 -2019 EUR/USD daily up and down days are equally matched by 24 up days to 24 down days. The 3 daily Doji indecision chart candles appears for a reason.

2018 -2019

At 123 up days recorded 24 peaks for an up trend /turn every 5.12 weeks while 126 down days recorded 24 peaks for a trend /turn every 5.25 weeks. Up days Vs down days factored to a trend/turn every 5.18 days. Up to down days and trend/turn radically changed to shorter terms from its 2013 -2015 counterpart at 14 and 17 days by at least 3 times.

EUR/USD averages from 24 up days factors to 1.1500 and a 1.1489 Median. Interesting numbers as the current 5 year average is located at 1.1476. EUR/USD average for down days factors to 1.1312 and 1.1280 as a Median.

Weekly

2013 -2015 Vs 2018 -2019

From 2013 -2015, a significant up peak occurred every 4.5 weeks on average while a significant down peak occurred every 4.33 weeks on average. A significant weekly peak occurred for trend / turn in up vs down weeks every 4.4 weeks on average and fairly consistent with the 16.1 daily peak turn.

The 2013 -2015 Up data: Up weeks recorded: 4 weeks, 1 peak, 5 weeks, 1 peak, 5 weeks, 1 peak, 4 weeks, 1 peak. Notice the 5 / 4 relationship. A significant peak occurred every 4.5 weeks on average,

The 2013 -2015 down data: down weeks recorded: 8 weeks, 1 peak, 2 weeks, 1 peak, 3 weeks, 1 peak. A significant down peak occurred every 4.33 weeks on average.

2018 -2019

For 2018 -2019, in 27 up weeks recorded 11 peaks or trend / turn every 6.75 weeks. Up week ranges lasted an extra 2.25 weeks Vs its 2013 -2015 period.

In 24 down weeks recorded 10 peaks for a trend turn every 2.4 weeks. A trend /turn in up v Down weeks occurs every 4.57 weeks. Up Vs down week ranges extended by a negligent 0.17 weeks. Overall up vs down weeks trends /turns shortened by 1/2 vs its 2013 -2015 counterparts. The answer is revealed by up trends at 6.75 vs Down weeks at 2.4. This deviation is rarely seen.
Weekly EUR/USD factors an up average at 1.1501 and down average at 1.1229.

Monthly.

Up months factors as 4 up months and 3 peaks for an up trend/turn every 1.33 months while 6 down months at 3 peaks equates to 2.0. Up Vs down trend /turns every 1.66 months.

Monthly 2000 – 2015

From the Oct 2000 bottom at 0.8206 to present July / August 2015 period.

Data

Monthly up months with a significant peak recorded, 3 months, 1 peak, 3 months, 1 peak, 16 months, 1 peak, 5 months, 1 peak, 8 months, 1 peak, 3 months, 1 peak, 29 months, 1 peak, 13 months, 1 peak, 12 months, 1 peak, 2 months, 1 peak, 6 months, 1 peak.

Overall 98 months Vs 11 peaks to include the EUR trend from 2003 to 2006 factors to 8.90 up months.

Monthly down months recorded: 5 months, 1 peak, 4 months, 1 peak, 3 months, 1 peak, 3 months, 1 peak, 6 months, 1 peak, 3 months, 1 peak, 6 months, 1 peak, 7 months, 1 peak, 8 months, 1 peak, 5 months, 1 peak.
50 months vs 10 peaks factors as a trend /turn every 5 months. Overall up vs down trend /Turn every 6.95 months.

Current EUR/USD

The EUR/USD topped at 1.1341 from 1.1183 in 5 days then bolted from 1.1183 to 1.1411 highs in 5 days. If the past is prologue then the EUR/USD contains 5 down days ahead.

 

Brian Twomey

FXTrade Results Feb 22 -June 28

 

Actual Profit Pips = 23,021

Actual Pip Profit Average 1292

We profit on Average 1292 pips per week on 12 currency pairs. We maintain profit at least 50% of all traded pips on 12 currency pairs. Mathematically, SD on 17 weeks and 12 currency pairs = 650.40 and 1/2 of 1292 = 646.

Further, Signal/ Noise Ratio Vs Variation equates to 1.98 Vs 0.50. The Signal is perfect and high Vs its 50 % Variation. We are dead on track to report profit on 50% of all traded pips.

Weekly Pips Totals for 17 weeks

911

1450

1203

1187

2

1162

126

1979

794

957

1033

1127

1700

1962

1979

1800

2592 =1292 Pips Average

 

Brian Twomey

FX Results June 24-28

 911 pips 13 Trades, 12 Currency Pairs.
Perfect CADJPY Vs offset by Missed entry USDCAD. -29 Pips.
Was 1111 pips overall but missed entry GBPCAD.
Entry and targets below.
EURAUD 1.6423, 1.6442, Target 1.6202 Actual 1.6410 -1.6204 +206 Pips
USDCAD 1.3218, target 1.3343, Actual 1.3216 -1.3087, -129.
CADJPY 80.66, 80.46, Target 81.40. Actual 80.99 -81.40, +41 pips. 81.89, Target 83.10, Actual 81.89 -82.36 +67. pips
GBPUSD 1.2685, 1.2654, Target 1.2757, Actual 1.2662 -1.2723 +61 pips
EURUSD 1.1268, 1.1273, Target 1.1288, Actual 1.1406 -1.1344, +29 ongoing target. 1.1271, target 1.1237, not triggered.
GBPCAD 1.6822, 1.6776, Target 1.7012. Actual 1.6854 -1.6582 Minus 240.
GBPCHF 1.2432, 1.2388, Target 1.2610, Actual 1.2454 -1.2342, Trade just triggered.
GBPJPY 136.60, 136.25, target 138.34, Actual 135.82 -137.32, +107 Pips on instruction.
NZDJPY 70.44 70.24, Target 72.02 Actual 70.64 -72.02 138 pips. 72.42 Target 73.20 not triggered.
EURNZD 1.7269, 1.7310  Target 1.7063, Actual 1.7270 -1.7063 +207 pips.
GBPNZD 1.9384, 1.9428, target 1.9317, Actual 1.9344 -1.9317, +27 pips. 1.9296, Target 1.9117. Actual 1.9296 – 1.9117. +179 Pips Total 206 pips.
GBPAUD 1.8424, 1.8443, Target 1.8325. Actual 1.8386 -1.8325. +61 Pips. 1.8308, target 1.8190, Actual 1.8308 +118 pips total pips 179
                   Brian Twomey

FX 28 Break Point Context

NZDUSD overnight was only pair to break above its Point at 0.6627. Must break first as Vital signal Pair and to serve its rightful position in Currency markets.

NZD leads, never follows. Leads all other currency pairs.

EURUSD Broke 1st at 1.1272. Highly neutral, Traditional follower never leads. This time it did. Wrong position.

GBPUSD Touched 1.2778, then downtown, it traveled.

AUDUSD 0.6981, traded 0.6971 then down.

Strength of trend for all non USD pairs always means JPY cross pairs must follow as rightful position.

JPY cross pair rightful position to majors is attachment to travel together. Protects JPY viability since WW2, a service from the allies.

CHFJPY serves it rightful function as Signal Currency Pair to JPY crosses. Break Point 109.64, now trades 109.76. A Break below usually means JPY cross pairs remains dead and strength of trend for above pairs to trade above break points is weak.

CHFJPY above 109.64 then JPY cross pairs follow.

USDJPY and USDCHF all trade below Break points. CHFJPY , USDJPY and USDCHF can’t trade below

Misplaced, In English called Dangling Modifiers, EURAUD EURNZD and GBPNZD must trade lower especially for NZDUSD and AUDUSD to contain chance to break its point, sustain and travel higher.

 

Brian Twomey

FX Break Points, 28 Currency Pairs

EURUSD only USD V Non Pair Broke above Break Point 1.1272.

 

USDJPY 109.34, Trades below

USDCAD 1.3347, Trades below

GBPUSD 1.2780, Below

USDCHF 0.9973, Below

AUDUSD 0.6982, Below

NZDUSD 0.6624, Below

 

EURUSD strength of trend above 1.1272

EURJPY 123.26, below

EURCHF 1.1234, below

EURCAD 1.5032, Below

EURNZD 1.7024, Above

EURAUD 1.6152, Above  EUR = 3 above Vs 3 below

 

AUDUSD Problem is EURAUD 1.6152, trades above

AUDJPY 76.25, trades below

AUDCHF 0.6956, Below

AUDCAD 0.9308, Below

AUDNZD 1.0540, Trades 1.0540 AUD = 4 below and AUD/NZD on the Edge

 

NZDUSD 0.6624 Problem, is EURNZD 1.7024, Above,

GBPNZD 1.9291 Above

NZDJPY 72.34, Below

NZDCHF 0.6601, Below

NZDCAD 0.8832, Below

NZD/EUR 0.5875, Below

NZD/GBP 0.5183 On the Edge to break  NZD =5 Pairs Trade beloe

 

GBPUSD 1.2780, Below

GBPJPY 139.76, Below

GBPCHF 1.2733, Below

GPCAD 1.7036, Below

GBPNZD 1.9291 Above

GBPAUD 1.8323, Above GBP = 4 pairs below and 2 Above GBP/AID on the edge of Break

 

USDCAD 1.3347 Below

CADJPY 81.90 Below

CADCHF 0.7473, Below CAD = 3 below but CADCHF on edge of Break

CAD/ZAR 10.83 On the edge of Break

 

CHFJPY 109.63 Trades Above

 

6 Currency Pairs above: EURUSD EURNZD GBPNZD EURAUD GBPAUD and CHFJPY

Means 22 currency pairs below. Giant moves ahead due to severe mis positions

 

Brian Twomey

Boris the Schlosssssberg Strikes Again

 

See the weekly trade results. The good  is all these people read my stuff as nobody ever reported weekly trade results nor  to the depth as yours truly.  The bad:  20 + years in FX, graduate of Ivy League’s Columbia University, world famous lecturer and TV personality. The caliber of trade results just doesn’t match the credentials and it applies to his partner, the dumbest woman ever to trade FX, kathy lien.

Boris earned 200 pips this month, charges $175 or $145 with the discount.

Informed was the discount doesn’t work.

FX Trade Results Feb 22 -June 21

Actual Profit Pips = 22,110

Actual Pip Average =1315

We profit on Average 1315 pips per week on 12 currency pairs. We maintain profit at least 50% of all traded pips on 12 currency pairs. More Available Vs Actual is explained by Contingency Trades for trades at significant MA Break Points. Those Vital points may or may not break in any given week but we’re prepared.

Weekly Pip[ Totals

1450

1203

1187

2

1162

126

1979

794

957

1033

1127

1700

1962

1979

1800

2592 = 1315 Average

 

Brian Twomey Interested in Trades then contact

 

FX Trade Results June 17-21

 Total pip profit 1450 pips, 12 Currency pairs, 16 Trades.
Entries, Targets and Actual below.
pip count based on weekly instructions. Extra is bonus. My interest is methodology and Models rather than extra pips.
GBPUSD 1.2568, 1.2539, Target 1.2798. Actual 1.2508 -1.2725. +186 pips.
GBPJPY 136.52, 135.87, target 139.11, Actual 135.40 -137.17, +130 pips.
GBPCHF 1.2552, 1.2512, Target 1.2714, Actual 1.2489 -1.2586, +74 Pips.
NZDJPY 70.22, 70.04, Target 72.09, Actual 70.26 -71.09, +83 Pips.
EURAUD 1.6355, 1.6323, Target 1.6119, Actual 1.6386 -1.6275, +111 pips
EURNZD 1.7288, 1.7325, target 1.7043, Actual 1.7304 -1.7108, + 196 Pips
GBPNZD 1.9443, 1.9493, Target 1.8322, Actual 1.9389 -1.9322, +67 pips 1.9298, target 1.9201, Actual 1.9289 – 1.9201, +88.
GBPAUD 1.8380, 1.8424, target 1.8335, Actual 1.8407 – 1.8335, +72 pips 1.8291, Target 1.8202, +70 pips
USDCAD 1.3459, 1.3482, Target 1.3388, Actual 1.3432 -1.3388, +44 pips 1.3365, target 1.3294, Actual 1.3365 -1.3294, +71 pips
GBPCAD 1.6861, 1.6846, Target 1.7029, Actual 1.6757 -1.6881. +41 pips. Terrible trade.
CADJPY 80.33, Target 81.60, Actual 80.57 -81.86, +103 pips
EURUSD 1.1185, 1.1164, target 1.1248, Actual 1.1181 -1.1248, +67 pips. 1.1269, target 1.1332, Actual 1.1269 -1.1316, +47 pips Total Pips 114.
     Brian Twomey, Contact for trades if interested