EUR/USD, G10, Currency Pair Selection: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Currency pair selection in relation to a 50 and 75 range factor means overall currency pair choices are incredibly slim. By process of elimination and to account for overall ranges and trades to move 100 and 150 pips, this week picks are GBP/CAD, EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and against a deep inspection to EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD as well as AUD/JPY longs.

EUR/AUD overall remained a constant pair since March 14th. EUR/CAD despite a miserable currency pair and choice will remain a constant pair only because of overbought status otherwise this pair loses any consideration from now to doomsday.

USD/CAD shorts as well is considered this week but only because of skyrocket overbought status. Recall March 14 and the 600 pip drop from 1.3100’s. Written was USD/CAD was dead and eliminated from long term consideration as the range was 300 pips. Now 6 weeks later, USD/CAD remains dead inside a range of 300 pips from 1.2722 to 1.2926 and top of the channel at 1.3049.

Nothing special in USD/CAD yet USD/CAD as a choice always moves far better than USD/JPY and USD/CHF because of CAD wide ranges, good movements, target responsive and CAD triggers contain miles of difference from JPY and CHF to allow its movements.

By process of overall elimination, 28 pairs are available to trade in the G10 space but many pairs are slow movers and eliminated from consideration. USD/CHF and CHF pairs are rarely regarded and this strikes CAD/CHF, EUR/CHF, AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF and GBP/CHF. Only regard to CHF pairs is trade as complements but rarely trades for long term consideration.

EUR/GBP, AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD as well eliminates although we caught a 200 ish pip trade in EUR/GBP and minor trade in AUD/NZD. Both EUR/GBP and AUD/NZD contains deep internal problems while AUD/CAD was designed as a non mover.

In JPY cross pairs, EUR/JPY is eliminated as the range is 128 to 133.11 tops but below 133.11 must break 132.74 and 132.44 then comes the 14 year average at 131.56 and 5 year at 130.85. AUD/JPY remains deeply oversold and trades at the lowest rung to its long term range. CHF/JPY and NZD/JPY in the current slow move environment lack any consideration.

GBP/JPY trades on a far different plane than its counterparts as movements are built into its price. Current 150.88 must break for higher in GBP/JPY.

EUR/NZD clearly beats GBP/NZD as GBP/NZD contains skitzy qualities by itself and against NZD/USD. GBP/NZD trades 300 pips from 1.9200’s to 1.9500’s and overall trades in a larger correction below 2.0698. The EUR/NZD trade is well established in movements and break points and may qualify as a continued trade next week.

GBP/CAD’s break point at 1.7900’s was clear and today it trades at 1.7500’s. GBP/CAD should also qualify as next weel’s trade.
EUR/AUD clearly beats GBP/AUD as EUR/AUD is well established in movements and break points while GBP/AUD was never designed to move. Consider weekend cocktail party information below from the glorious days of currency trading in the 1920’s and 1930’s.

AUD/GBP 3/31/1919 traded 0.3333 or GBP/AUD 3.0003. By 6/30/ 1931, AUD/GBP was 0.3846 or GBP/AUD 2.6001 and moved 4000 pips in 12 years or 300 pips per year. Today GBP/AUD trades 1.8204 and moved lower by 7700 pips since 1931 or 87 years.

To ensure cocktail party success, here’s AUD/USD, AUD/USD 1919 to June 6/30/1931, Ranged 2.4300, 2.2300, 2.2200. By June 1931, AUD/USD traded to 1.8000. Current 0.7500’s represents a 99 year downtrend, lowest in History.

To restate and end. Trades must contain 100 to 150 pip targets or no trade exists, many pairs fail qualification currently. Selection is key and only offered in a few currency pairs. A 300 pip range is quite dead if considered as 150 pips on 1 side to trade upon a move from significant break points.

Trades.

DXY recall 2 weeks ago the 5 year average at 91.45 and DXY now trades 92.05. Lends deep consideration to EUR/USD’s 5 year at 1.1949 and USD/JPY at 110.01. A 5 year average break offers clearer direction and more available pairs to trade yet a 5 year average doesn’t contain the period change power to a 10 year average break. Its just means established direction and wider ranges.

EUR/USD 1.1949 below but is contained today at 1.2029, 1.2013 and 1.1998. Break point above now 1.2188, drops 25 pips from 1.2213.

GBP/USD. Watch bottoms at 1.3695 and 1.3678 and break point now at 1.3886, drops 29 pips from 1.3715.

GBP/JPY contained below by 149.87 and 149.68.

USD/JPY break point now 108.68 and below contained by 109.02 and 108.89. Recall above 109.43 and 109.69.

AUD/USD break point 0.7702, belongs at 0.7649 and above 0.7702 then 0.7838. At 0.7100 is loacted at deepest extreme prices and I wouldn’t advise pushing the envelope.

NZD/USD must break above 0.7175. Contained to below at 0.7012, 0.7003 and 0.6994.

 

Brian Twomey

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EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The common theme to currency market prices this week from a cross section of 10 various yet pertinent currency pairs is prices remain trading around significant break points. This means price ranges trade from roughly 50 pips in USD and Non USD pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY to 75 pips in more wider ranging cross pairs in EUR/AUD, GBP/CAD, EUR/NZD and EUR/CAD.

JPY cross pairs remain challenged and as examples EUR/JPY 133.11, clear uncertainty in risk pair CAD/JPY yet a clear direction higher for AUD/JPY.

Trade around significant break points adds to not only distinctly settled prices but uncertainty dominates current prices as clear direction remains a challenge for many pairs and this means overall the choice to which pairs to trade for greatest gains must be highly selective. Settled prices remained the theme last week, seen this week and unless prices get moving to crack break points then the same overall market order will be seen next week.

Long term forecasts and themes are the result of price views over time horizons and remains for weeks, to 1 month to multi months. Currency settled prices for example now enters week 3 and reported weeks ago.

GBP last week was the outlier as it broke widely reported 1.3915. The break represented a new range from 1.3915 to 1.3317 from last range at 1.3915 to 1.4502. The greatness of the Great British Pound is movements and ranges are wide with terrific movement potential but it loses its greatness as it desires to follow or not to follow overall market prices.

Yet the follow, not follow theme changed in market prices alongside the new interest rate structure in place for 2 years.

Traditional GBP was for decades market leader and all prices automatically followed but GBP dropped 185 pips and remainder pairs except GBP remained range bound. Certain days, EUR becomes leader while all pairs trade ranges. Currency pair selection becomes highly significant to the new market order.

EUR/USD’s larger range drops another 6 pips this week to 490 pips inside an overall range from 1.1836 to 1.2819. Since February 23rd, EUR’s larger range dropped 34 pips and most responsible is the topside fall as bottoms remain week after week to form significant supports. The 1.1200’s, 1.1300’s and 1.1500’s are attributable to the topside drops as those points remain overbought and a lower EUR requires ability for lower averages to rise and work off overbought before EUR will see a lasting trend higher.

While 1.1836 to 1.2819 is reported as current ranges, actual range is located from the 5 and 10 year averages from 1.1948 to 1.2779. Chances of a break at 1.2779 are extremely slim.

EUR/USD break point is located at 1.2213 to offer targets at 1.2262, 1.2289 and a solid line at 1.2300. Below 1.2150 and 1.2162 offer supports then 1.2082, and 1.2018. Watch for longs at 1.2104. Same tired EUR is expected however below 1.2213 then rises are corrections.

USD/JPY topside is the story to drop USD/JPY this week. Falling against USD/JPY to move higher is 109.69 and 109.43. The break point however is located at 108.52. USD/JPY remains highly conflicted as no direction or trend is established. The break last week at 108.04 and 108.17 was driven strictly by USD short rates. Above 108.52 represents a correction while below then 108.17 and 108.00 then 107.32 and 107.12.

EUR/NZD. Watch 1.7089.

EUR/AUD watch 1.6037 and lower to 1.5939.

GBP/USD watch this week longs at 1.3720 if seen and break point remains rough at 1.3910 and 1.3915. Above 1.3915 targets 1.4110 and longer term 1.4216. Until 1.3915 breaks and it doesn’t appear likely, price rises as in EUR/USD are corrections.

AUD/USD’s 247 pip drop significantly performed great damage as AUD remains highly oversold and should trade to 0.7649 and much higher longer term. Tall order for AUD yet its potential higher is astounding. At 0.7592 and 0.7569 are only break points lower. Long any drops is the only trade. Bank calls for a 0.7100 AUD lacks any credibility as 0.7503 hits extremes and longer term 0.7410 as well remains nearly impossible then consider a slower range movement to AUD and 0.7100 appears more impossible.

Only a possible OCR drop would perhaps see 0.7100 but the RBA is talking raise by 2019 and Domestic conditions overall are currently running strong against Household Consumption up, Domestic Demand up, employment up, temporary drop in exports, GDP expected higher, Inflation lower.

USD/CAD’s significant overbought targets lower prices while 1.2722 remains the level to see much lower on a break. Price rises are slated as shorts due to overbought. At 1.2860 and 1.2899 is not expected due to extreme prices but good sell points in case of market flukes.

Brian Twomey

 

EUR/USD, G10, More UK Interest Rates: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Day 2 and GBP again begins its move as expected and as intended by the new UK system. GBP/USD dropped 47 pips at this same time yesterday and the only economic release was GBP Mortgage Approvals and an as expected release. GBP/USD today dropped 83 pips.

For 2 straight days, GBP dropped but GBP had an equal chance to rise yet it didn’t nor couldn’t because the BOE for 2 days created a GBP fall. How many of the 35 trades scored 2, 3 and 400 pips without mention of the word economic release. A known target trades to target yet how the target achieves its destination could’ve factored to many aspects and not economics alone. The concept “Priced In” is another general term without purpose or meaning.

The BOE and all central banks revamped interest rates and the missing word is exchange rates. To revamp exchange rates alone is impossible because to many exchange rates exist and a re do to interest rates contains the indirect effects to the exchange rate.

Think the progression Money Supply, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, economic release. An economic release is last on the chain of concern and its effects are indirect to the exchange rate. Can a central bank work backwards and create an economic system to comply with Money Supplies, Interest Rates and exchange rates. Its impossible as the system must work to build forward from money supply to economics. Can the greatest mathematicians of our time calculate backwards.

The rehabilitation to interest rates intended purpose was strictly for banks for a redesign to a lend /borrow, buy /sell system for profit to lend inside the respective nation. The exchange rate is irrelevant.

The unfair advantage for the extremely few trading banks for the day trade as interest rates is the “How To” aspects are not known nor written in bank training manuals, or trading books or academic papers. Its a self taught concept to either join the trading crowd or fall behind and trade the leftover levels. Every trader on the planet has the same opportunities as the trading banks but few take advantage.

Most important to unfair advantage is known far ahead the choice of currency pair to trade. How many banks for example are interested to trade EUR/CAD, AUD/NZD, CHF/JPY, AUD/CAD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY.

GBP/USD broke its vital 1.3921 and now trades deeply into 1.3770’s. Look for a return to 1.3844.

GBP/JPY broke its level at 151.03. Look for higher to first 150.88 and a break at 150.92.

EUR/USD is again contained below at 1.2062, 1.2049 and 1.2040. Break point for higher is today at 1.2216.

USD/JPY traded 109.49 and just short of next most important 109.59. Target is 109.83 above 109.59. Break below is located at 108.48.
Overbought USD/CAD break is located at 1.2720.

Much lower for EUR/NZD against break points at 1.7046 and 1.6955.

EUR/AUD targets 1.5805.

 

Brian Twomey

 

EUR/USD, G10, UK Interest Rates: levels, Ranges, Targets

GBP/USD yesterday as mentioned broke above its vital break point at 1.3948 and target 1.3997 hit perfectly. Monday’s launch to the 2 year finalization of UK interest rates traded perfectly all week until today when GBP/USD dropped 47 pips on the time frame as intended. UK interest rates were clearly responsible.

UK bankers, interest rate and swap traders are now masters of the GBP road and they will respectfully, beat the day traders by many miles because they factor far ahead. Bankers knowledge is far superior to the vast majority of traders as they know not only the targeted levels and prices but they know the day, hour and minutes targets achieve.

Actually, the bankers contain an unfair advantage because they earn the easiest pips and leave meaningless levels for other traders to trade and earn nothing. If a GBP trader today earns 47 pips or better than thankfully count your gifts. Editorially, I don’t allow the bankers to beat me but its a daunting task as the bankers are fast, brilliant and experts.

The central banks went beyond concepts of control but they brought a deeper perspective as they professionalized the currency price. As I’m inside nation’s interest rates daily for 2+ years and I know deeply every traded interest rate, the assumption is GBP is set, defined and predetermined. Its boxed and set in stone.

No such concept exists as to a wandering or meandering currency price. Those days as once existed are now gone. The new expertse to trading is earn the pips without unearned pips flying past without profits. GBP/USD for example dropped 100 pips today and rose 49 for 140 available pips.

GBP/USD bottoms today are contained by 1.3929, 1.3905, 1.3887 and 1.3876. GBP/USD must break above now 1.3935 to target 1.3976 and 1.4002. What is offered here is exact to align with the bankers.

GBP/JPY. Yesterday’s upside target at 153.14 on a break of 152.74 achieved 152.55. Only other mention to GBP/JPY yesterday was break point at 150.94 and today the break is located at 150.97. Look for bottom containment today at 152.07, 151.88 and 151.79.

USD/JPY vital break yesterday was 108.25 and today 108.37. Yesterday’s 109.21 and 109.24 was adjusted downward to 109.09. Look for 109.09 today as well as 108.94 and 108.82 to contain. Upside target is set high today at 109.89 on break of 109.64 and 109.67.

EUR/JPY mentioned ad nauseam 133.11 and 133.43 was traded Tuesday. A big move is coming for EUR/JPY and shorts is the only way.Watch today 133.33 and 133.58.

EUR/USD Yesterday’s 1.2240 break point is now 1.2229. Above targets 1.2235. Below watch supports at 1.2144, 1.2128 and 1.2115.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD break point are located at 0.7740 and 0.7217.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and Daily Trades: Levels, Ranges, Targets

AUD/USD dropped 247 pips in 5 days from 0.7812 to 0.7565 or 49.4 pips per day. No correction yet to deeply oversold and below 0.7572 represents out of bounds for AUD. Bank of America forecasts 0.7100 on this efx site. This is the site where banks make erroneous calls to hedge funds, coupled with fancy pictures and high falutin jargon like USD/JPY rose to 109’s due to Japanese Importer interests. Meanwhile no mention to an interest rate drop to assist another 400 pip loss. AUD claims this bank has ability on its own based on yield spreads.

Seen AUD short interest rates lately, trading at exorbitantly high levels and generally this implies giant AUD supports on interest drops. Same concept when weeks ago, USD short rates began trading higher. It implied USD supports and the USD/JPY rise was seen from miles away because USD/JPY was forced higher as it didn’t have anymore to go.

Meanwhile the bottom of the 5 year average from 0.8106 is located at 0.7292. USD/AUD bottom in its 5 year average from 1.2451 is located at 0.7334. Another 400 pip drop assumes EUR/USD dives 400 pips to trade to 1.1800’s and breaks its 5 year average at 1.1951. But the ECB is talking interest rate rises and abdication from QE. No accountability for actions is what wins awards on the retail trading sites.

Leo Tolstoy. The 2 most powerful warriors are patience and time. Seems appropriate.

Daily Trades

EUR/USD from current 1.2206, vital break point above is located at 1.2240. Below, where to, not below 1.2148. Strong supports located at 1.2179 and 1.2172 then 1.2163 on breaks. Look for bounce at 1.2172 and 1.2179 to 1.2191.

GBP/USD broke above vital 1.3948. At 1.3956 vital support then 1.3948 and 1.3929 and 1.3911 bottom. Above 1.3948, targets are 1.3998 and 1.4028. By the way, any 1’s in a GBP/USD forecast. If not, pips are wrong so says the BOE. Don’t waste pips.

GBP/JPY. Current 152.27, vital break point 150.94. BOE’s job is control GBP/JPY or they lose GBP/USD. Up target 153.14 on break of 152.74. Watch 152.74 for reversal to 152.57 then 152.48.

USD/JPY. Vital break point 108.25. Up target 109.64 on break of 109.41. The reverse to 109.28 and 109.21.

NZD/USD. Vital break point 0.7231. Up target 0.7123 on break of 0.7114 then reverse to 0.7104 and 0.7095.

 

Brian Twomey

 

EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The concept of unsettled prices last month derived from cross pair misalignment to alignment. 35 + trades from cross pairs attested to this consideration and the pip counts earned answered the how far as well as 5 week time frame to alignment question.

Vast majority of today’s cross pairs after current alignment remain in ranges from 100 to 150 pips and nothing special yet to overall big moves. And this includes every cross pair on the planet. Only changes between currency pairs is letters and numbers. Highlighted pairs this week in EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD were exceptions to 100 to 150 ranges and known long before as correct trades.

After cross pair alignment, prices for all currency pairs were settled to include the USD and Non. The USD V Non led the charge as traditionally expected in sound currency market prices and the march resulted in breaks of major levels. EUR/USD longs for example must break above while USD pairs must break below levels. Even USD/PLN broke vital 3.4229 and dashed to 3.44 while AUD/NZD remained a troubled currency pair as 1.0700’s held.

The constant from generation to generation and 2000 years is exchange rate formulas and market structures haven’t changed one iota. What changed was market participants and whatever modern day tools, views and perceptions are employed. Today’s prices for example remain constant but its the central banks chipping away at the edges of structures. The changes are slight yet most prevalent.

USD/JPY broke 108.04 and 108.17 then traded to next reported level at 108.93. Below must break 108.15 to target lower prices at 107.32 and 107.08. Light years of downside exist for USD/JPY as it currently trades at top of its multi year range. The big bank call for 116 at Q3 end is impossible as the channel top is located at today’s 113.45. USD/JPY prices remain at war with each other and the rise to 108.93 was forced upon USD/JPY.

EUR/USD break point is located at 1.2248. Above then back on track to 1.2300’s. Overall, 1.1800’s and 1.1700’s now remain deeply oversold and for weeks the bottom supports began rising to protect deeper downside movements. The base formation reported over several weeks inside the guts of EUR/USD numbers I suspect will materialize at the end of the week review.
AUD/USD. Only points for AUD/USD downside are 0.7590 and 0.7572. AUD is now further into richter scale oversold and break point is located at 0.7763. AUD is heading far higher. AUD is not heading to 0.7100’s as the same big bank reported.
AUD/JPY remains today trading 17 pips higher from Sunday’s open. Break point is located at 83.93 and target is found just below. Buy dips.

GBP/USD dead stopped at reported 1.3919 then bounced. Above 1.3961 then higher. Massive resistance is located 1.4225 while next below is located at 1.3801 and 1.3772. Ranges are wide.

EUR/AUD remains the gift that keeps on giving. Sell rallies to 1.5900’s and 1.5700’s.

Massive overbought USD/CAD break point is located at 1.2680 while top channel is located at 1.3062. Shorts only is the way forward.

EUR/JPY 133.11 held again. Shorts only above.

Massively oversold NZD/USD higher means a break at 0.7244.

GBP/JPY 150.95 supports GBP/JPY.

Watch EUR/CAD 1.3719.

 

Brian Twomey

 

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

In the April 17th post, it was written currency prices were settled especially after last month’s 3 and 600 pip movements then BOE’s Carney April 20 offered price movements but not enough to disrupt the balance to offer significant price moves. USD/CAD and CAD crosses performed well but remained within their respective allowable pip movements.

Overall currency prices remain tight and within 50 and 100 ranges and no assistance from EUR/USD and USD/JPY as both pairs head into week 9 since February 23rd to more range compression. Settled prices and a tight market means the cross pairs as well as USD V non USD in the majors are equally affected but this also means the breakouts are not only on the way but price breaks must be seen.

A settled currency price is representative of a one moment in time concept but its impossible to settle Statistics therefore its a matter of time before volatility hits hard again and it should hit violently. The only unknown question is where will it come from, an interest rate rise or fall, misaligned economic announcement, a central bank statement, Trump.

Regards to EUR/USD, Nowotny and ECB speakers is the habit to mention central bank policy when the EUR/USD price is stuck. It was the same situation during the days of Jean Claude Trichet. The non credibility to Nowotny statements is European interest remain completely dead even as the Fed raised, , Euro interest rates failed to move.

Despite the 9 week range restriction to EUR/USD and USD/JPY , the overall effects reverberated only to EUR/USD and USD/JPY and not cross pairs as range restriction over 9 weeks informed the EUR/USD and USD/JPY trade strategy resorted to elimination of long term consideration to favor quick day trades. What informed USD/JPY and EUR/USD matters not one iota to overall currency markets is the past 35 trades and pip gains. Restriction meant look at other currency pairs.

Last week’s EUR/USD and USD/JPY as mentioned contained their best opportunity in 9 weeks to see upper and lower break points but the best offered was trade to the brink of 1.2253 and 108.04.

EUR/USD’s break point this week is now 1.2253 and a slow painful rise since March 10’s 1.2196. A higher EUR/USD to target 1.2395 must break 1.2294, 1.2324, 1.2329 and 1 .2361. Caution at 1.2361. Note 1.2395 as 1.2400’s were eliminated from break point consideration which means above 1.2395 then next points come at 1.2501 and 1.2534.

Below 1.2253 targets 1.2160, 1.2152, 1.2082 and 1.2021. EUR/USD remains overbought from 1.1200, 1.1300 and 1.1500’s and explains EUR/USD non ability to travel exorbitantly higher but also the 10 year average now drops from 1.2800 consideration to 1.2787. We’re cautiously looking at a higher EUR this week only because its deeply oversold from 1.2253, 1.1800 and 1.1700’s. But note 1.2282 close to 1.2395 is 79 pips and nothing special overall.

USD/JPY break points above are located at vital 108.04 then 108.17 and on a break comes 108.93. Below 107.32 and 107.08 then the many and massive supports in the 106.00’s begin at 106.62, 106.59 and travel to 106.14. As USD/JPY prices remain at war against each other, USD/JPY fails in trade consideration.

Currency pair agenda for trade consideration this week is cautious GBP/USD long but careful at 1.4054. GBP/USD in the 1.3900’s are many and massive from 1.3973, 1.3953 and 1.3919. Continuation of longs target 1.4224.

AUD/USD and AUD/JPY are deeply oversold. Short again EUR/AUD on price rises. An explosion is coming to EUR/NZD. Only short points remaining for EUR/GBP are 0.8811, 0.8775 and 0.8769 to target 0.8500’s.

EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD remains short on price rises. Overbought USD/CAD shorts are located at 1.2674 to resume the downtrend.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

When Mark Carney left the Bank of Canada to head the BOE, GBP/CAD became known as the “Carney Cross” and yesterday it performed to its designation.

GBP/CAD from last Friday, April 13th, achieved its destination overnight at target 1.7772 and now exit at 1.7782. Massive resistance faces GBP/CAD at 1.7700’s. The next big break point is located at 1.7705 then 1.7698 and 1.7611. Overall range is located from 1.8037 to 1.7705.

AUD/NZD despite big drops in AUD/USD and NZD/USD as well as both trading below vital break points, AUD/NZD sits dead and the 5 week range traded 188 pips from 1.0485 to 1.0673 . After 5 weeks and a 188 pip range, AUD/NZD is best described as a severe underperformer currency pair. Editorially, AUD/NZD is permanently excluded from trade consideration as other trade able currency pairs exist. A 188 pip range equates to 7.52 pips per day in 25 trade days.

USD/HKD, despite HKMA intervention last week, USD/HKD dropped 100 pips and against severe skyrocket overbought. Asia contains 2 most vital money market centers, Singapore and Hong Kong. The Chinese deal through Hong Kong in offshore USD/CNY and Onshore USD/CNH while the Japanese and most Asia nations deal through Singapore. Both USD/HKD and USD/SGD then remain quite stable in prices and movements. USD/SGD rose 36 pips in 2 days.

GBP/USD. Monday represents the finalization to the BOE’s 2 year interest rate revamp study . Release times will change as priority is devoted to separate wild news movements to a smoother traded currency price. Far more direction and control to GBP is granted to banks and interest rate traders as the prior BOE’s interactive system for interest rate look up was also revamped.

The BOE’s prior interactive system required advanced knowledge to trade GBP against interest rates. Now, the BOE forced interest rate traders to build their own interest rate curves and only those banks with prior interest rate knowledge contain this deep expertise as they deeply understand the interest rate changes.

One vital aspect to the change is the BOE created a sincere nightmare hurdle to obtain the necessary interest rates and only few banks are willing to take this time and to factor the curves. As I’m inside every nation’s interest rate system daily over many years, GBP from my perspective is still able to trade based on the BOE’s new system but how effective will the changes hold and can the BOE actually contain GBP volatility is questionable and only time will tell the tale.

EUR/USD look at 1.2309 and 1.2293 to hold then bounce today. Break point for much lower is now located at 1.2252 and a rising line.

EUR/CAD remains the only pair left from the 5 week trades and short is our trade. Watch EUR/CAD bounce today from 1.5558 and 1.5576 and 1.5579 to 1.5606 and 1.5621. Top of today’s channel is 1.5713 and excellent sell area.

AUD/USD is contained from 0.7669 to 0.7677. AUD price is deeply low and oversold and break point is now 0.7769. AUD will be reviewed after the close today for possible new upside target from 0.7836.

NZD/USD remains below its break point at 0.7260. EUR/NZD is again playing around its vital 1.7088.

USD/JPY break is located today 108.04. Upse target today located at 107.93 on break of 107.82.

EUR/AUD is again trading in the 1.6000’s, short is the way.

USD/PLN traded yesterday to its next break point above 1.3719 to 1.3816. Watch 1.4023 break, its close.

GBP/USD is close to its most vital break point at 1.3969. A break then much lower for GBP. Look for 1.3991 and 1.4007 to contain GBP today. Higher must break 1.4072 then 1.4097.

GBP/JPY big line break is located just below at 150.86. At 151.33 and 151.10 must hold or 150.86 becomes vulnerable to a break lower.

USD/CAD trades below most vital break at 1.2674 inside a small range from 1.2641 to 1.2674.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

AUD/USD traded to 0.7812 and 4 week target remains 0.7836. AUD/JPY from mentioned RBA long at 83.06 and target 83.75 traded to 83.94 for an 88 pip gain although as stated the trade failed to meet the continued now 5 week + 100 pip trade criteria. Watch AUD/JPY 84.29.

The educational note in 35+ currency pairs traded and + 3,000 pip achieved targets is other market prices were completely irrelevant. Other market prices are and will remain irrelevant. CAD and OIL for example is not the way to trade or view CAD as every currency pair price trades on their own and fails to need assistance from another price in any market instrument.

Overall point to note in our currency pairs is while close to + 100 pips targets, currency prices failed to trade to 100 pips or better. USD/CAD traded 105 pips as well as EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD. What CAD offered was shorts. What the overall G 10 market offered as mentioned was barely 100 and 150 pip ranges.

GBP/CAD held below 1.8038 and offered another short for interested. EUR/CAD offers another short and view breaks at 1.5541 and 1.5526 for shorts to gain down speed to 1.5470’s then below to 1.5300’s GBP/CAD remains for target at low 1.7800’s to high 1.7700’s.

USD/CAD shorts below 1.2575 and 1.2647. CAD direction as mentioned remains short.

EUR/CAD twice achieved + 80 pips on the shorts but for ulterior motives I remain and will remain short. The overall EUR/CAD question is how strange and to what degree does strangeness achieve. EUR/CAD remains literally exorbitantly overbought.

AUD/NZD’s 4 week and miserable trade ended and as mentioned exit was taken at 1.0668 for + 70 ish pips and just ahead of its vital break point at 1.0700’s. A break higher at 1.0700 than AUD/NZD higher. Overall AUD/NZD will eventually trade to 1.0900’s but patience required.

Encouragement to learn and trade USD/PLN as PLN is and always was a terrific currency pair. On paper, PLN appears a monster currency pair but its not as it trades smooth and responds to targets perfectly. Entry at 3.3630 achieved +80 pip overnight target at 1.3719.

EUR/JPY watch 133.11, it held yesterday at 132.90 and today’s high at 133.09. Massive resistance exists at 133.30 and 133.33. Short only is the way above 133.11. A Forex God, market gift exists for EUR/JPY to trade to 134’s, 135’s.

Ongoing trades remain only in short EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD. GBP/CAD was the only non perfect trade as entry was off but chances to load shorts. AUD/NZD’s 4 week entry was slight off as well but it offered chances to load longs. Targets were known, prices informed to trade the price.

Again target first then allows to trade the price.

EUR/AUD from last month’s post and 1.5738 target from 1.6191 achieved 1.5776 lows and more downside exists.

From yesterday, GBP/JPY dead stopped at 152.09 and as mentioned GBP/JPY had to trade back to 152.76 and it traded to 152.68. GBP/USD mentioned had to trade back to 1.4233 from 1.4172 lows and it traded to 1.4246.

USD/JPY 2 weeks ago reported break point to travel higher at 107.85 and last week 107.95. Today 108.05 is the break point as 107.85 traveled higher as USD/JPY approached its break point.

EUR/USD dead stopped perfectly at our 1.2399, above then target to 1.2431. Bottom 1.2337 and 1.2321 will hold EUR from further downside today.

GBP/USD target today is located at 1.4264 on a break of 1.4231.

GBP/JPY target today is located at 153.23 on break of 152.87.

After 5 weeks and 35 + different currency pairs traded and + 3500 ish pips, the end is here once GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD completes targets.

Overall 1 month goal was trade 30 different currency pairs and + 3,000 pips. I surpassed the goal by many miles. Next possible is trade to targets up and down 3 and 5 curreny pairs.

Brian Twomey

 

USD/SGD and USD/PLN: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Current USD/SGD, Singapore Dollar trades at 1.3099 and is a great currency pair to hit targets as it trades steady as AUD/USD or NZD/USD. Current USD/SGD is oversold and trades at the bottom of its range.

Match Sing – Apore against MYR, the Malaysia Ringgit as SGD/MYR then the famously named Sing / Ring currency cross is created.

Bottom of the range means not only 1.3092 and 1.3087 but bottom of a multi year range. Long is the only direction as shorts are impossible. The big break point for longs to see USD/SGD higher is 1.3197 and a break targets many and massive resistance points at 1.3300’s starting at 1.3303 and up to the 5 and 10 year averages at 1.3357 and 1.3368.

Longs must trade to 1.3181 yet must cross above 1.3141, 1.3158, 1.3171 then 1.3184. Overall, higher in USD/SGD represents a correction as price remains below 1.3762 and 1.3606.

The long trade despite resistance and 50 ish pips involved is forced upon USD/SGD as it lacks ability to travel lower

Last post reported EUR/JPY top at 133.11, it held at 132.90. GBP/JPY dead stopped at 152.09 and as mentioned GBP/JPY had to trade back to 152.76 and it traded to 152.68. GBP/USD mentioned had to trade back to 1.4233 from 1.4172 lows and it traded to 1.4246.

To know a target price is to know how to trade a price and this is completed by either hold to target or trade multiple times in the direction of the target.

A far better long trade is USD/PLN from its current 1.3635 price. As in USD/SGD, the long in USD/PLN represents a correction higher as long as price remains below 3.3927 and 3.4213.

Above 3.4213 targets 3.4314, 3.4435, 3.4739 then wide open to 3.5069 and challenge to the 5 year average at 3.5471.

Target on the long is 1.3719 and just shy of the next vital break point at 3.3816. Overall, current range is located from 3.3535 to 3.3816.

Brian Twomey

GBP/JPY, NZD/JPY, MXN: Levels, Ranges, Targets

More pairs not in contention is GBP/AUD as this pair is stuck between 1.8699 to 1.8262 and currently trades at 1.8412. GBP/NZD shorts lack all consideration but rather its in buy drop mode especially at 1.9253 and 1.9188. EUR/NZD fully informs any long on drop strategies as price holds above 1.6848 and 1.6883 however 1.6910 becomes the target and above 1.6910 evolves into a short only scenario. EUR/NZD is set and ready to rise back to its last reported point at 1.7082 but this assumes NZD/USD falls much lower in correction mode.

CAD/ZAR dropped today to 9.5510 from 9.5602 yesterday for 92 pips and fully explains EUR/USD’s 1.2351 to 1.2397 range. CAD/ZAR lacks a big move as it ranges from most vital break points between 9.6368 to 9.4853. Longer term, CAD/ZAR trades beteen its 5 and 10 year averages from 10.1419 to 8.8829. CAD/ZAR informs EUR/USD will remain in range mode for a long time in the future.

Ongoing trades remain EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD and long held AUD/NZD. EUR/CAD achieved a +80 pip gain so far and remains a current short. Lower 1.7800’s, upper 1.7700’s for GBP/CAD then out while AUD/NZD requires a further AUD/USD correction then out near 1.0665. AUD/JPY from RBA’s 83.06 low trades 83.43 and heading to 83.75.

From JPY cross pairs, EUR/JPY 133.11 remains the top while CAD/JPY and AUD/JPY trade in slow grind mode.

GBP/JPY faces rough resistance at 153.23, 153.33 and 153.99 as the current upside move remains a large correction especially below 159.80 and 160.39. Above 153.99 then next comes 154.75 and not likely to be seen anytime soon as GBP/JPY drivers at 145.90 and 150.83 are far overbought. Sell rallies is the way forward overall.

Solid supports are located at 150.89 and 150.83. Overall GBP/JPY is a 310 pip range from 150.89 to 153.99 . GBP/JPY requires a correction to 152.27 but not much further as 151.04 remains the vital line to hold 150.89 and 150.83 from its break. Quick trade is the best GBP/JPY offers unless GBP/USD falls into correction mode. Look for quick longs at 151.04 to target again 152.27.

As of writing 152.29 achieved so long to 152.76 is the way today while GBP/USD trades back to 1.4233. Today is free trade day.

NZD/JPY must break for lower to target 77.87 is located at 78.79 and 78.49. Above 78.79 then 79.94 is in deck.

USD/MXN trades between 17.88 to its vital break point at 18.44 to then target above at 18.71, 18.77 and 18.88. Below 17.88 then next comes 16.81.

CAD/MXN next break above to target 14.62 and 14.79 is located at 14.54. Above 14.79 becomes a short only strategy as CAD/MXN trades at the top of its range.
Brian Twomey

USD/CAD V CAD/JPY: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Last month’s currency prices and pairs performed exceptional at 300 to 600 pip movements and this month either settled prices or certain currency pairs trade in slight correction mode. Slight so far is the operable word as it applies to USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY. Slight was the market order suspected as the search continues for new trades. GBP/NZD is on deck as it rose almost 300 pips since Friday’s post and its about ready. Again, the criteria is +100 to 150 pip or more trades.

On the NAFTA front, its quite extraordinary to even see slight movements in USD/MXN and an utterly dead pair in CAD/MXN. So dead is CAD/MXN, it makes the analyst’s CAD/CHF look like a volatile pair. I might post the combo to define dead as it was suspected a NAFTA deal would reveal great trades. It doesn’t.

The Bank of Mexico learned the new central bank art of interest rate manipulation as TIE rates trade in utter dead zones. A once great and volatile pair in USD/MXN coupled with 1000’s of pip movement abilities now sadly trades like the EUR/USD and USD/JPY relationship.

Ongoing trades remain in AUD/NZD, EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD. AUD/USD is complete and review comes at 0.7836.
AUD/JPY on RBA dead stopped at previously reported 83.06 and offered trade at long 83.05 on RBA would target 83.75. The trade achieved + 27 so far. I remain not interested in AUD/JPY yet. I saw doves upon doves coming from the RBA and revealed through AUD/USD and AUD/JPY prices.

GBP/CAD Friday was a perfect trade set up and entry but positions traded 40 and 50 pips on either side of vital 1.8038. From a daily view, prices performed correctly. The trade remains ongoing but fails in consideration of success and its the 1st among 35 + trades. GBP/USD requires a correction as USD/CAD sits in dead ranges. A lose doesn’t exist in currency trading. At worst in any trade is break even.

As USD/CAD and CAD/JPY are offered, no interest in trade criteria exists at current prices.

USD/CAD trades between its vital break points from 1.2675 and 1.2521. Vital is 1.2521 because next comes 1.2357 then a good possibility for a run to the 5 year average at 1.2219.

Above, USD/CAD contains serious problems from 1.2540 to 1.2605 as this represents a deep dark gray area. At 1.2606 then 1.2648 is required to break to target the most important point 1.2685. The best achieved by a 1.2685 break is 1.2735 then solid at 1.2800.

USD/CAD’s best approach is in sell rally mode.

CAD/JPY longs remain good as long as prices remain above 85.15. The next upside target is 86.29 and 87.00’s are solidly blocked.

If 85.15 breaks then target is a good long point at 84.42. At 84.42 is an excellent long to target 85.15 and above.

CAD pairs as seen in USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, CAD/MXD and CAD/CHF trade in dead ranges. CAD dead ranges match AUD pairs and its suspected the same will be seen in NZD pairs. Next comes EUR and GBP and then possible Central Europe in PLN, INR.
Brian Twomey

 

EUR/USD V USD/JPY: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Week 8 and range compression continues the EUR/USD and USD/JPY story as EUR/USD loses another 9 pips at 496 pips from 505 and USD/JPY drops 5 pips to 432 from 437 last week. Since March 10, EUR/USD traded a 513 pip range from 1.1802 to 1.2828 while USD/JPY traded 438 pips from 109.54 to 100.77.

EUR/USD today trades 1.1831 to 1.2823 as bottoms gained 29 pips since March 10 while USD/JPY loses 28 pips on the topside from 109.74 to today’s 109.45. USD/JPY gained 6 pips on the bottom side from 110.73 to 100.80. USD/JPY trades today from 109.45 to 100.80. The compression story since FEB 23rd derives from USD/JPY as both tops and bottoms restricted while EUR/USD bottoms are formed solid supports.

EUR/USD managed 1.2397 highs last week from stated break points at 1.2341, 1.2354, 1.2361 and 1.2400 then dropped 100 pips to 1.2299. Sell points last week were also stated at 1.2361 to 1.2400.

This week, break points are wide as EUR/USD longs must remain above 1.2327 to target 1.2361, 1.2397, 1.2451 and 1.2505. Watch most vital 1.2397 as this point upon a break assures 1.2451. Sell points are located at 1.2397.

Below 1.2327 then next comes 1.2308, 1.2288, 1.2274 and on to biggest break point at 1.2235. Below 1.2235 then targets become 1.2158, 1.2153 and 1.2082. EUR/USD contains its best shot this week to break 1.2235 and 1.2235 will deploy as upper resistance to a lower EUR/USD. Higher EUR/USD remains challenged by overbought 1.1300’s and 1.1500’s. A lower EUR is required to relieve overbought before a 1.2500 EUR has any shot to sustain.

Most conflicted USD/JPY higher must break 107.95 to target next points at 108.42, 108.68 and 108.94 then consideration to the 5 year average at 109.93. This week’s USD/JPY contains every ability to break 107.95 then trade to 108.42.Overall higher USD/JPY will remain slow and deeply challenged.

USD/JPY below must break 107.07 then comes many and rough points in the 106.00’s beginning at 106.62, 106.22 and 106.15. Good long points at lower 106.00’s.

Week 8 and the same story remains as breakouts must be seen to offer any decent trade. Currently, it doesn’t exist.

 

Brian Twomey

 

AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

AUD/JPY’s April 6 post was written to target 84.27 on an entry at low 82.00’s. Friday April 13th, six days later, AUD/JPY traded to its top at 84.07. The gain was + 200 pips in 6 days and slight 20 pip miss on exact target. The low April 6 was 81.90 and personal entry was 82.06 but again most important overall is diversification of currency pairs to + 100 pips or better trade targets.

Possibly this month, 40 pairs post and + 4, 000 pips. Possibly because until calculations are done, its impossible to know where a currency price ends and begins. Alternatively, If dead markets are seen then maybe trade 5 or 6 currency pairs continuously up and down in my Statistical Price Path. Possibly, all Euro, CAD or all GBP. Either way, my trades write future headlines.

Possible future educational post must address not understood concepts taken as gospel in currency trading such as Overbought / Oversold, Stops, entries, targets, liquidity, outside events / economics vs currency price. A target must complete its destiny and everything else related to the price is irrelevant. Respectfully, 50 and 100 pip trades leaves unearned pips. Automatic computer trades and Algorithms are miles off and wrong. All statistically quantified in above facts as I continue years later to factor trades by pencil, paper and simple calculator.

Ongoing trades, EUR/CAD, AUD/NZD, AUD/USD and GBP/CAD. AUD/JPY is complete.

AUD/USD 4 weeks later represents a miserable dead range currency pair. Friday saw 0.7810 against the overall 0.7834 target from 0.7680’s entry. The base seen weeks ago to propel AUD/USD higher no longer exists and today’s AUD sits in undecided zones.

AUD closed on its vital higher / lower break point line at 0.7764 to offer undecided context. Further, AUD/USD is most conflicted against its AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY counterparts. All 3 pairs should be miles higher especially AUD/NZD but AUD/USD and AUD/JPY are in current buy drop mode.

As AUD/JPY is offered, no interest exists because its a quick short term trade only unless lower 82.00’s are traded and its highly doubtful. For interested, reload longs at 83.05 and 82.80 to target 83.60, 83.75 and 83.82. Caution at main break line at 83.82 and only above then will 84.29 be seen. Forget 85.00’s as those levels are solidly blocked. AUD/JPY must trade to 83.75 and longs only is the way. Only existent points below are 82.19, 81.94 and 81.51. Should a good spike low be seen on RBA then quickly I will enter long to target 83.75.

AUD/USD is in the same predicament as AUD/JPY. The target remains 0.7836 and 2 pips higher than previous 0.7834. Below 0.7764, game plan is reload longs at minor lines at 0.7731, 0.7729 and 0.7716. The main line is located at 0.7698. Above 0.7764 then on to 0.7836 by breaks at 0.7791. Target at 0.7836 is located just shy of major points at 0.7841 and 0.7864.

Overall AUD/USD plan is take profit at market open for an 80 + pip profit and embark on a 2nd long trade.

Lower AUD/USD and AUD/JPY should now offer the opportunity to finally see AUD/NZD higher. AUD/NZD as mentioned in the March 30 post should trade to 1.0900’s and targets at 1.0700’s. The 1.0700’s now align as many and rough starting at 1.0734, 1.0745 and up to 1.0788. The main break line is located at 1.0698. As AUD/NZD seriously under performed and AUD pairs currently remain a waste of time, I’m looking to the exit at 1.0665 and walk with a 65 ish pip gain.

Current AUD pairs lack any meaningful trades except short trades and targets are seen weeks later. Overall, no need exists to trade AUD pairs as many other pairs offer far better, more safer and many more pips quickly.

Brian Twomey

GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD, More Monthly Recap: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Today represents 1 month since the March 14 USD/CAD and CAD/JPY posts. The personal objective was 30 pairs posted and + 3000 pips. The count is about 25 currency pairs from the majors and 4  pairs to include HKD, NOK, KRW and CNY. Certain currency pairs can’t post because no trade exists and the analyst CAD/CHF is a great example. CAD/CHF is actually an embarrassment to post as a trade by itself. CAD/CHF and other currency pairs fit into what I call Complementary Currency Pairs and those pairs are used specifically for “other” trade purposes.

CNY achieved 300 pips and despite a wild currency pair, far more upside exists. Not sure regarding overall pip count but assumption is far more than 3000 pips were achieved. Far more gains would’ve been seen if I held positions to targets. EUR/AUD for example runs currently +391 pips from 1.6191 ish and achieved new lows overnight at 1.5801 and soon we’ll see 1.5738 and lower.

Only AUD/NZD under – performed and remains off its entry while every currency pair posted achieved objectives. AUD/USD is near 0.7834 targets and AUD/JPY now runs +195 pips. AUD/USD and AUD/JPY require review for AUD/NZD insights but I’m committed to AUD/NZD longs.

EUR/CAD now runs + 86 pips and far more downside to go.

Think about Overbought / Oversold concepts, entry prices and the laughable Professional Score to judge statistically trader performance, success / failure. Review any of the 30 ish currency pairs and ask does an entry price matter. Did it matter where to enter EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, USD/CAD, CAD/JPY. Only consideration is target, not entry and the Professional Score is highly suspect to its calculation measures. Respectfully, currency traders today especially the post 2008 crowd have much to learn. Thank you to my sincere friend Peter Wadkins as he celebrates his 45th continuous year in FX on November 5th.

GBP/CAD at 1.7900’s just launched a fresh trend lower as long as prices remain below 1.8038 and 1.8068, most vital is 1.8038.

GBP/CAD meets the trade criteria but doesn’t offer a giant trade gain.Watch for entry at 1.7945 and 1.7984 today.

Targets are first at 1.7815, 1.7772, 1.7731 and 1.7701. Overall, 1.7701 is a must break for lower prices and additional gains. As 1.7815 is a minor break, target overall is 1.7772 but again no need to marry specifically 1.7772 as this point is a huge break and no further need to play around rough break points.

GBP/NZD is a currency pair I don’t like. GBP/NZD’s journey represens a huge correction. Lower overall and sell price rises is the way but GBP/NZD contains problems as lower will take some time. Lower means eventual breaks at 1.9253 and 1.9188.

More pairs will post to conplete the 28 majors then consideration to many others.

 

Brian Twomey

 

EUR/JPY and Currency Markets: Levels, Ranges, Targets

CAD/JPY’s target from the March 14 posted trade from 80.58 was 84.71 and 85.27. CAD/JPY dead stopped at 85.24 for a 469 pip move. USD/CAD dropped 596 pips overall from 1.3140’s.

The overall question to currency markets is what’s next and where are we going. Currency markets presently lack leadership and a leading currency pair to decide the next moves. Most of the 28 currency pairs among the G10 are settled into dead ranges and next trades to meet 150 to 200 pip targets are becoming harder to find. The muted response from yesterday’s Fed minutes offered in real time exactly what dead ranges mean.

Responsibility to the where next question must come from the 7 and now into week 8 range compression problem between EUR/USD and USD/JPY. As leading cross pair by most widely traded among all cross pairs on the planet since 2001, EUR/JPY is deeply affected by EUR/USD and USD/JPY’s range dilemma. Currency markets are screaming for a USD/JPY, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY breakout to see prices in many currency pairs to get moving again.

EUR/JPY’s settled yet small ranges for example affected CHF/JPY, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, NZD/JPY and GBP/JPY. A 150 and 200 pip move in the above pairs presently doesn’t exist as next moves lack clarity. Leadership must and will come from EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY.

On the USD front, USD/CAD will struggle to move higher and remains in sell rally mode while USD/CHF trades in dead ranges. USD/JPY must lead the way.

EUR/USD is clearly responsible to drive further prices in AUD/USD, NZD/USD and GBP/USD.

EUR/CAD as the strangest currency pair on the planet will lead the way as speculation without a view into AUD/CAD, GBP/CAD and NZD/CAD. Severe overbought in EUR/CAD leads speculation. Least concern is AUD/CAD as even yearly moves dated to the 1990’s never saw 500 pip years.

EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD still offer opportunities as well as EUR/NZD and AUD/NZD. CAD/CHF and GBP/CHF remain in dead ranges.

Overall in the past month, the vast majority of trades derived from cross pairs and its speculation again the majors in EUR/USD and USD/JPY to now break and lead the cross pairs.

Reaming pairs to view and possible trades are GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD, NZD/CAD, AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF and try again for NZD/JPY. If nothing exist then maybe USD in central Europe in PLN or ZAR, INR.

EUR/JPY is fast approaching its tops at 133.11 and above 133.11 then a short only strategy exists. The vital break point below is located at 131.95 therefore range becomes 133.11 to 131.95. Upon a 131.95 break then range becomes 131.95 to 131.18.

EUR/JPY should properly trade between 131.58 to 131.18 but 131.95 must first break. The 130’s are many and rough first at 130.94, 130.81, 130.70, 130.60 and 130.29. What holds EUR/JPY from a deep dive is 129.52 and 128.65.

Short is the only strategy yet upon a 131.95 break, caution to 131.18. EUR/JPY like all JPY crosses offers quick pip trades until the EUR/USD and USD/JPY situation resolves itself by economic release or un forseen outside event.

 

Brian Twomey

 

EUR/CAD Vs EUR/CHF: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Overnight AUD/USD broke reported 0.7759 and achieved 0.7768 and now target at 0.7834 is close, 3 weeks later. AUD/JPY from lower 82.00’s achieved + 137 pips at 83.37 and on to 84.27 ish target. EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP traded to new lows. although 296 and 100 pip objectives were achieved. EUR/JPY now approaches 133.00’s from reported 131.80’s break point and deserves a deeper view as 133.00’s represented EUR/JPY’s top weeks ago. All EUR G10 currency pairs remain deeply challenged at the topside and today’s Skitzy EUR/CHF and EUR/CAD add to the mix.

EUR/CAD’s price represents a currency pair inside a currency pair and this describes both a skitzo and dangerous situational currency pair. Short term, EUR/CAD trades within a well defined larger range from 1.5309 to 1.5825 but this range is further contained by break points at today’s 1.5567 and 1.5656. Above 1.5656, targets 1.5825 and below 1.5567 targets 1.5309.

Longer term EUR/CAD richter scale overbought is an understatement as EUR/CAD’s rightful place is found at middle to lower 1.4900’s and 600 pips below its current price. The danger to EUR/CAD is its subject to a deep dive and a drop to occur anytime. EUR/CAD awaits the spark then its gone. EUR/CAD’s currency pair within a currency pair short term contained the short term price and prevented it from its impending drop. The shorter term view and daily metrics hides what’s behind the actual price.

As EUR/CAD longs are impossible, the short strategy is target the impending break at 1.5567 then 1.5309. At 1.5309 is the break line to see a further massive drop to begin an advanced trend lower to 1.4974.

EUR/CHF’s longer term downtrend is well defined below its main break at 1.2388 then 1.2262 and ironically 1.2009 followed by 1.1923. Critical at 1.2009 was the overall point when the SNB in 2009 released the EUR/CHF long held floor at 1.2000 to see a 3500 pip drop in 15 minutes.

At 1.1800’s, the downtrend trend represents beginning stages yet the trend is not only stagnant but highly undecided as the shortest term break points are located from 1.1702 to 1.1923. Shorts must break 1.1778 then 1.1702 to target 1.1671, 1.1653 and 1.1626. Shorts today must drop to 1.1778 and below while longs are impossible despite a low and highly undecided price.

Strategy is shorts only for the impending break at 1.1702 particularly as EUR/CHF’s downtrend will begin again and because price rises are forced market corrections.

Overall, no thrills exist to a longer term trade as EUR/CHF is a slow slow mover currency pair. EUR/CAD long term shorts however upon the 1.5500 break is a far better trade yet patience is required.

Brian Twomey

AUD/USD and Trade Recap: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Since March 14 and the begining of current trades that began with USD/CAD, 20 currency pairs were posted to exclude the weekly EUR/USD V USD/JPY trades. All trades performed as written against the goal to post currency pair targets at + 100 pips or better.

Most pairs performed far more than the 100 pips intended. For example, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD, USD/CNY, USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, USD/NOK all profited at + 200 pips. GBP/CHF as the best trade overall at a 500 pip potential profit was missed and only seen by the time to factor the trade was a 300 pip dead range and untouchable. USD/HKD seriously underperformed therefore I bailed with a few pips profit and not to touch again as HKD serves a far more different purpose today than its once highly trade able currency pair.

No trade was found in KRW and this condition may last for many months if not years. Signature on the South Korea / US trade deal may move KRW but not until after the May/ June meeting with Trump and North Korea.

AUD/NZD as the only under performer ran a 50 + pip profit first then a 90 ish pip loss. The long trade remains to target 1.0700’s. AUD/JPY and AUD/USD longs remain to target and both are running profits. Many more pairs will post against the continued objective at 100 pips or better. The goal is currency pair diversity in 30 + currency pairs rather than pip amounts although 100 pip trades remains the target.

In the March 23rd AUD/USD post, a base formation was reported and this was correct as AUD drove 70 + pips higher however the base formation was reason enough to remain for higher levels. And despite a 3 week trade for 150 + pips. The base formation is partially explained by only 2 levels below exist for AUD and those levels are located at 0.7582 and 0.7574. The second explanation is drivers at 0.8200’s.

What drove AUD March 23rd was 0.8260 and must break 0.7797 as opposed to March 1st at 0.8264 and 0.7813. AUD drivers today are 0.8257 and must break at 0.7759. The topside fails to drive much lower to lower 0.7600’s and 0.7500’s.

The objective is target at 0.7834 on a break of 0.7759. At 0.7834 remains however a fluid number as resistance now exists at 0.7834, 0.7837 and an upper line at 0.7862. The line at 0.7862 requires consideration within the next week.

The overall lesson and message to past and future trades is not to lose sight of the long term forecasts as the trades see far ahead to prices. Far ahead views informs the economics and/ or political events to influence the price. March 23rd, nobody considered AUD but 3 weeks later, a new AUD interest exists. March 22nd, EUR/NZD 1.6800’s was the break point and today, EUR/NZD trades 1.6700’s. Much more to come.

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD V GBP/AUD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

GBP/USD trades in a 599 pip range from 1.3926 to 1.4525. Above 1.4525 then next point challenges the 5 year average at 1,4684. The topside to GBP contains many problems.

The first dilemma is GBP is driven short term by 1.3074 and 1.3325 and both are severely overbought. Longer term, GBP is embarking on a massive correction from 1.1900 lows and the overall price must remain below 1.5226 and 1.5276. Secondly, GBP trades at the top of its range and GBP can’t handle a higher price and this means not 1 pip above current prices. The longer term strategy is sell rallies. The most comfortable range for GBP is 1.4001 to 1.3896.

A large gray area exist from 1.4101 to 1.4203 and this represents an uncertain danger zone. GBP should actually trade to 1.4203 then 1.4280 but its not ready to travel higher. At 1.5226 and 1.5276 are slightly oversold while 1.3074 and 1.3325 are severely overbought and this creates the 1.4101 to 1.4203 undecided zone.

Sell rallies means below 1.3926 to many and massive supports at 1.3878, 1.3870, 1.3862 and 1.3765. Should GBP ever break through this zone then next comes 1.3654 and 1.3613 and on to 1.3325. Below 1.3977 and 1.3926, breaks at 1.3800’s will take time. The most important point is 1.3878 to travel lower.

GBP/AUD at current 1.8348 represents a trend just beginning as long as GBP/AUD remains below 1.8696. Any price rises can only travel to sell points at 1.8377, 1.8420 and 1.8476. The next break point below targets 1.8278 and 1.8252 then the 5 year average and caution at 1.8127 . Seen in GBP/AUD is confirmation to a lower GBP/USD and sell rally strategy. Further seen in GBP/AUD is miles of downside exists. If the 5 year average breaks at 1.8127 and a good shot exits then targets become 1.8040, 1.7953, 1.7944 and 1.7915.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V DXY V USD/JPY: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Again as EUR/USD and USD/JPY embark into Week 7 since February 23rd, range compression continues as EUR/USD loses 5 pips to trade wides at 1.1824 to 1.2824 while USD/JPY drops 3 pips to trade 100.79 to 109.50. USD/JPY lost 24 topside pips from 109.74 since March 10 while EUR/USD gained 22 pips from 1.1802 to 1.1824.

The 7 week explanation on failure to break significant levels is absolutely certain as cause for range compression but a far better interpretation is DXY trades 585 pips between its 5 and 10 year averages from 91.45 to 85.60. DXY Friday broke most crucial 89.95 and threatens lower at next 89.06 and then a far distance to next points at 87.36, 86.62 and 86.01.

The DXY break at 91.45 in January and 89.95 explains EUR/USD support formation as well as USD/JPY topside drop. but fails to explain an uncertain price in USD/JPY. A DXY break lower as well is comfortable within its longer term 86.11 to 93.78 range.
Above, 90.28 and 90.66 must break in order to consider a run to the 5 year average at 91.45 on breaks at 91.05 and 91.15.

Above 91.45 longer term then next comes 92.41 and 92.77. Overall, DXY trades inside 200 and 300 pip ranges as the past 7 weeks traded 88.00 to 90.00’s. Below 89.95, DXY remains in downtrend mode and a trend just underway.

EUR/USD possible base from last week failed to materialize this week as the overall EUR/USD price failed to move to significantly change the forecast. EUR/USD is stagnant but focus to the downside as 1.1400, 1.1300 and 1.1200’s remain far overbought. EUR/USD requires another drop before a move higher and the same story from last week.

EUR/USD sell points for the week are located at 1.2341, 1.2354 and 1.2361 then 1.2400. Severe caution from danger zone between 1.2361 to 1.2400. Below, 1.2241 and 1.2220 must break to target 1.2155, 1.2081 and 1.2026. Caution as 1.2026 as a break is the line to target the 5 year average at 1.1957.

Higher for USD/JPY must remain within 106.61 to its significant break point at 107.85. Higher must break 107.12 then 107.85. Massive headwinds ahead on a 107.85 break at 108.25, 108.79 and 108.86. USD/JPY’s line at 108.86 is crucial to target the 5 year average at 109.89. USD/JPY remains in week 2 as a struggle against itself and 107.85 will provide significant resistance and not ready to crack. View 107.85 to EUR/USD 1.2220.

Below 106.61 targets 106.22, 106.15 and 106.01 then a massive dropoff to 105.26 and 105.15. Good long point at lower 106.00’s. Overall, USD/JPY remains at the top of its range and higher will remain a struggle.

The trade methodology over years for USD/JPY and EUR/USD is the day trade as those trades are far more exact, reliable and profitable rather than play around with current break points.

 

Brian Twomey