Average Inflation Targets, GDP and Interest Rates

Fed minutes around the summer of 2019 addressed the concept to allow Inflation to run above and below the 2% target yet this idea was never formalized as a policy until last week’s announcement. The policy of Inflation Targets began as a formal adoption with the RBNZ then Canada, Sweden and a long list of nations. Greenspan and the United States never adopted Inflation Targets. Today, the new concept is Average Inflation Targets.

Average Inflation Targets won the day as an all encompassing policy instead of targeting the Price level. Canada and the BOC for example uses the 2% Target as a midpoint from overall Inflation running from 1 to 3%.

The new policy to Average Inflation Targets is another tool to Keynesian Economics as adopted by Central Banks after the 2008 crash because stimulus and rising balance sheets remains the order of the day.

The Austrians would counter the Keynesian argument by adding and subtracting weekly money into the banking system and allow the Fed Funds rate to roam and trade freely. The ancillary effect is Inflation would remain low and become a true number. What then drives overall Inflation is Money Vs the Fed Funds rate.

Under the stimulus concept and Keynes, central banks add money to the system but never subtract. Central banks faced with piles of money under Inflation to never reach its target and an artificially low overnight rate then began buying bonds. Then came stock purchases to raise inflation then yield control and now Inflation Averages. Soon the central banks will own every market instrument on the planet and become the controller to markets more than has ever been seen in history.

Under Inflation above and below the 2% target or just the 2% target alone, the Fed Funds rate is held artificially low and non moveable. The Fed’s overnight rate or known as the Effective Fed Funds rate has hovered in the 0.08 to 0.10 vicinity for practically everyday for the past year. This explains all central banks as an artificially low overnight rate allows stimulus from now to eternity.

The trap for the fed and central banks after 12 years of Keynesian Economics and stimulus is to allow overnight rates to trade freely. A change to an overnight rate at just 2 and 3 points would cause market volatility and wide price swings to currency prices. Market volatility is contradictory to central banks. Yet stimulus can’t run forever otherwise the economic system will eventually crash.

Traditionaly, Inflation and overnight rates run counter to each other. Low Inflation leads to higher overnight rates and higher GDP. Employment and Wages follow.

Note this relationship.

GDP -5%
Fed Funds 0.08 or headline 0.25.
Inflation rate 1.0 or PCE 1.3.
10 year Yield 0.74
2 year yield 0.13.
Employment Rate 10.2.

Normal arrangement is GDP and overnight rates trade above Inflation rates. Lower goes Inflation then higher for interest rates and GDP. Central banks are working the system backwards by forcing Inflation to trade above interest rates and today, Inflation trades above GDP. In the 1970’s Stagflation, Inflation traded above GDP and interest rates. By forcing Inflation higher leads to lower interest rates and GDP.

From 2008 to current day, Inflation traded above Fed Funds and GDP for the vast majority of time traded below Inflation. Inflation since 2014 trades higher than GDP and Fed Funds. Rather than move the interest rate to rectify the Interest rate Vs GDP situation to allow both to trade higher and contain Inflation at lower levels, Stimulus is added. Add stimulus lowers interest rates and GDP.

Stagflation is defined as Inflation rates above GDP or prices trade higher than output which means a wage earner can’t afford the means to sustain wages to their lifestyle. Items and needs are to expensive. The enemy to GDP, interest rates and economic prosperity is stimulus.

Data was run since Inflation targets began 28 years ago in 1992. The data covers 1992 to 2019 using yearly averages. For Inflation was used average inflation.

The Fed Funds rate average is located 2.61 and oversold at 0.08. The range runs from 0.5 to 4.72.

Inflation averages 2.27 and is oversold from last at 1.0. The range is 1.33 to 3.21.

GDP average is 2.59, oversold and ranges from 1.01 to 4.17.

Fed Funds Vs Inflation correlates to +52%. This means raise or lower Inflation then Fed Funds must follow.

Fed Funds Vs GDP correlates +37%. Raise or lower GDP then Fed Funds follows.

Inflation Vs GDP Correlates +0.007. Under correct positioning, GDP rises forces Inflation lower.

Economies require lower Inflation to 1%, rescind stimulus and allow GDP and Interest rates to rise so allow booming economies.



Brian Twomey







24, 50, 100 and 200 Hour Moving Averages

120 trading days exist per week = 5 day average.

Every trading week begins at a 2 day average and grows by Friday to a full 5 day average. An average = simple. An average requires price data to move and why its called simple.

Averages from Fix prices is mandatory not close prices or averages will mis align to centralbank prices.

Monday =2 day average

Tuesday =3 day

Wednesday and Thursday =4 day

Friday =5 day.

Monday then begins 2 day average again and the process repeats.

A popular bank called Dukascopy posts everyday on popular website  its fx forecasts and is wrong everyday it posts to levels, targets and direction. Matches a Glorified retail trader and garners front page status due to bank Name.

Bank uses 50, 100 and 200 Hour MA’s. What are they.

200 Hour MA, barely 8 day average or 192 hours, but an uneven Average

100 Hour MA =Barely 4 day average, but uneven average

60 Hour MA = 2 1/2 day average and uneven again

50 Hour MA= 2 1/4 Day average and uneven

All uneven averages, not good

Difference between 50 and 60 day Average? 1/4 day, or useless

From 50 to 200 = 2 – 8 Day, Duka bank is useless.

24 Hour Averages

I saw a 24 hour average used by a guy but its wrong.

A 24 hour average must start at either the China Open or by the Fed interest rate release in early NY afternoons. I send AUD trade information every trading day by the Fed interest rate release every afternoon and its reliable. I find all trade information from the FED on a 24 hour basis extremely reliable.

The China Open is used to cover actually 11 hours of trading from 9:30 pm EST  to the next day ECB at 10:00 am. So 2 averages are running, the 24 hour and 11 hour.

What is actually known from the China open is the support and resistance levels as China might or may not be different from the Fed support and resistance points. With a change of exchange rates from the Fed to China, support or resistance levels normally change and it must be known to most important points to trade for day trades. Accuracy is vital.

AUD, NZD and Asia pairs are quite different from a day trade perspective and for accuracy. The FED at 4:15 afternoons is good but not perfectly accurate.

Why is because Asia pairs, AUD and NZD change interest rates after the China open. A change in interest rates changes support and resistance points. AUD and NZD must record and enter new interest rates then factor the exchange rate for accurate support and resistance points. This is done every morning.

When AUD, NZD and Asia pairs trade in Europe and America trading, Asia markets are closed so support and resistance points are good until the next interest rate release after the China open. its a true 24 hour indicator but the times must factor correctly or support and resistance points won’t be accurate.

Many Fix prices are seen every trading day, 13 are major fixes then comes interest and exchange rate fixes directly from the respective central bank. Each fix price is different and its imperative to trade day trades by the correct Fix price and to know the exact support and resistance points. Its a full time job but it depends to trade correct times.

So a blanket, all encompassing 24 hour MA is not reliable as a trade indicator. Because support and resistance points are not known. Then comes ranges. Every currency pair has a different range and ranges may change. Current ranges are fairly stable for day trades but 1 month or 1 week  from today is not known to ranges.

Fx is not an easy job as much must be known. And this takes many years to truly understand what’s going on, how to trade and the many changes required throughout any given trading day. My estimation is 1% have the knowledge, and 99% don’t care outside of entry and target. But the 1% spent the many years to understand.


Brian Twomey


FX Articles Today

Commonality to all fx articles today as follows:

1. Never an actual trade reported with entry and target.
2. Upside Could be, Looks like, Probably, if this then that

3. Downside. Could be, Looks like, Probably, if this then that
4. 4 hour chart. This is mandatory, or maybe 15 minute, don’t know why.

5. Must post chart with crazy drawings for verification
6. Must mention Fib level

7. Must contain yesterday’s useless information 
8. 1.3200 = Psyco level, Psychological level, the Figure, useless information.

9. Swing High or Low. Didn’t know prices swing

10. Must mention day’s events, useless but mention covid19 or today’s jacksonhole or centralbank speaker. m

11. Maybe offer useless technical level from pivot point or recent high or low

Why the need to post same pair everyday as Dukas Copy bank does and everyday they are wrong in levels, targets and direction. Swissquote too.
All posters are selling something but this is how they represents themselves to the public. These articles impart no knowledge, experience, trade ability or anything for that matter. 
Then comes website question. How is all this allowed and a benefit to readers and website bottom line. Major websites are now signal services and despite massive losses, no shortage of customers but all customers are new traders and plenty of new these type traders around. if new trader accounts are blown out then comes the next set of new traders. Its never ending cycle.

End result, entire article says nothing, imparts nothing and is useless to every Markettrader on the planet. And this is today’s accepted #FX

          Brian Twomey

USD/CAD: Weekly Trade Results


USDCAD Weekly Trade As Posted


  Long 1.3123 and 1.3101 to target 1.3351

Open price Sunday 1.3169

 Lows 1.3133 Highs 1.3238 

 Trade Runs +105 Pips  

Long way to target

Trade posted Sunday


Swissquote Bank Research team as posted on Fxstreet this morning. USD/CAD: The Downside Prevails



Dukascopy Bank team as posted this morning on Fxstreet. USD/CAD Decline likely to Continue


This is what banks offer these days as they turned into failed retail forex signal services.


Brian Twomey

Weekly Trades: USD/CAD, NZD/JPY, NZD/CHF

The RBNZ informed to the possibility to negative interest rates. OCR dropped massively from 0.20 to 0.05 on the announcement and now at 0.06. With a headline interest rate at 0.25, the RBNZ has miles upon miles to go before negative interest rates are considered.

Not in 1 written paper from the RBNZ has negative interest rate been considered over the past 8 and 10 years. On the announcement to go negative, the RBNZ effectively had an interest rate drop but done through the overnight rate rather to headline.

The effective rate drop is credited and categorized as Forward Guidance and an overall Monetary tool used by all central banks.
The RBNZ actually states not an interest to negative interest rates but this quote “Therefore, once deposit rates are close to zero, lowering the OCR further may lose effectiveness as cuts would not significantly lower bank funding costs.”

Further quote: NZDUSD The New Zealand dollar exchange rate is heavily influenced by offshore developments, particularly relative interest rates.

RBNZ sets the interest rate standard for the entire world after the Fed reports their own interest rates every afternoon. The RBNZ can’t go negative as the RBNZ prices its interest rates from the FED then all nations price own interest rates from the RBNZ. Its a daily 24 hour rotation and works on every trading day.

Since the OCR drop, NZD/USD failes to correlate to its current interest rates and is operating at -83%. This is day 2 since the drop and NZD/USD as well as all NZD pairs must correlate to its interest rates. This is mandatory as an exchange rate cannot trade correctly in markets without a positive correlation to its interest rates. This means means NZD must adjust.

As stated many times, an interest rate change by a central bank takes 5 days to normalize. We’re on day 2 and 3 days to go.

Weekly Trades

NZD/CHF is a problem pair to the NZD universe due to negative correlations to NZD/USD. But we’re going with it this week. From the CHF universe, GBP/CHF has been the big winner over the past few weeks.


Long 1.3123 and 1.3101 to target 1.3351.
Long above 1.3407 to target 1.3549.
Short 1.3549 to target 1.3476.
Short 1.3351 to target 1.3276


Long 68.47 and 68.38 to target 69.03.
Long above 69.22 to target 69.94.
Short 69.94 to target 69.40.
Short 69.03 to target 68.03


Long 0.5949 and 0.5935 to target 0.6015.
Long above 0.6028 to target 0.6081.
Short 0.6081 to target 0.6054.
Short 0.6015 to target 0.5975.



Brian Twomey

Correlations: 26 Currency Pairs

A correlation is a unitless measurement alongside a mathematical reading from +1 to -1. Unitless means Correlation numbers flow through prices and change based on the level of prices. The answer to a particular Correlation between and among currency pairs is which currency pairs hold a positive association and which pairs are negative.

The Correlation measurement is an evaluation of prices between and among currency pairs but more specifically, its an assessment to moving averages as moving averages are the driving force behind currency price movements.
A positive Correlation relationship informs prices and moving averages are correctly aligned while a negative alliance informs problems exist among counterpart prices and averages. The price level maybe to high or to low in relations to partner currencies.

The final determination then assesses not only multiple trades but which pairs are problems in relation to counterpart currencies. Troubled pairs without acceptable Correlations are un tradeable and must be excluded from trade consideration.
Correlations further examines not only overall normal and non normal currency market prices but a problem may exist within a group of currencies such as EUR/USD and its cross pairs.

Correct is EUR/USD must correlate to all cross pairs to determine a normal functioning group. Likewise to GBP/USD and cross pairs, AUD/USD and cross pairs, NZD/USD and cross pairs.



USD currency pairs are not only running strong and perfect but multiple trades exist.


GBP/NZD is a deeply toubled pair between and among counterpart currency pairs as follows:
GBP/NZD Vs GBP/USD +29%. Low.

GBP/NZD barely reveals a pulse to current prices and averages and to main counterparts which means GBP/NZD prices are to high or low in relation to GBP/USD and NZD/USD because of the positive correlation between NZD/USD and GBP/USD.


Both are considered the same currency pair and both conceivably supposed to move together in tandem but its not true.


Here’s the question: If GBP/NZD lacks a correlation to main counterparts then does GBP/NZD transform and trade as a USD pair is an incorrect statement. GBP/NZD belongs in the GBP/USD universe and must correlate to GBP/USD but at certain instances, GBP/NZD will correlate to NZD/USD. Here’s proof to the USD statement.


Can GBP/NZD ever transform and trade exactly as USD by correlations is not true at this current evaluation. We can check, assess and prove this statement by AUD/NZD and EUR/NZD.




Current EUR/NZD to EUR/USD correlates 83% and EUR/NZD correlates 62% to USD/CHF. This situation is a severe problem and explains why EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD as the same pair only correlates +55%. Both should correlate at least +80% to +90%.

GBP/NZD Vs AUD/NZD +0.09 %.


GBP/NZD fails to not only correlate to GBP/USD and NZD/USD but GBP/NZD fails to correlate within its group Vs EUR/NZD and AUD/NZD. Clearly a troubled currency pair.

EUR/NZD The Better Trade by Correlations


EUR/NZD strong positive correlation to EUR/USD reveals EUR/NZD will move alongside EUR/USD but also EUR/NZD operates correctly within the EUR/USD set of cross pairs. The problem comes when EUR/NZD correlates +62% to USD/CHF. This situation leaves EUR/NZD paralyzed and possible to trade erratic prices.


GBP/NZD shortest term is slightly overbought but deeply oversold just past its 10 year average. EUR/NZD is overbought shortest term and overbought past its 10 year average.

AUD/NZD Correct Correlations


AUD/USD correlates to NZD/USD and vice versa due to underlying RBA interest rates.

AUD/USD Vs RBA Interest Rates

AUD/USD Vs Interest Rates +96%
NZD/USD Vs RBNZ Interest Rates
Here’s where markets get interesting as the RBNZ just lowered interest rates and a drop was seen from 0.20 to 0.06 upon the RBNZ statement. Correlations are off and negative which means the NZD/USD price must align to its current interest rates. We’re 2 days into the drop and interest rates remain negative to NZD/USD. Normally its a 5 day process to align interest to exchange rates.

NZD/USD Vs RBNZ interest rates -83%



NZD/USD correlates and moves together vs NZD/JPY and NZD/CAD but lacks a correlation to NZD/CHF which means a big price adjustment wil be seen to NZD/CHF. Yet all NZD must adjust to its new interest rate.

CHF Correlation as Problem


Troubled pairs are GBP/CHF and NZD/CHF as both bolted from the GBP and NZD universe.


GBP/CHF amd NZD/CHF moves together with USD/CHF.

Overall Currency Markets

GBP/USD Vs USD/CAD -98% and healthy


Brian Twomey










Weekly Trades: 18 Currency Pairs

Current week 18 weekly trades and traded entries to targets perfectly. A 17 year process of building on statistics to ever more perfection. Today’s markets are far from traded markets in the old days. I challenge anyone to not only trade as perfectly as me but to and build accounts continuously over years. The object to trades is set entry and targets on Sunday and take profits during the week and without worry. This has been the way for nearly 5 years so not to become 24 /7 screen watchers. Last month has been a bit erratic yet we’ve done well and maintained.

We trade each pair continuously throughout the week by longs and shorts at specific entry and target points as the trade set up allows.  Certain pairs trade only one way. Each week is different to the pairs.

The profit potential per week is easily 1000 to 1500 pips and much more on good weeks.

Below is what is offered per week. I don’t take on new traders. I have traders been with me for many years and this is what is sought as well as traders with a certain degree of experience. And for traders who live busy lives outside of markets.  Because I grow accounts exponentially.

A special pair not offered is gladly sent. EM pairs are traded and offered upon request.

Favored trades are ranked from best to worst. EUR/USD entry missed by 52 pips yet profit +152 pips. Note perfect trades this week: EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY, NZD/CHF, EUR/AUD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CHF, GBP/CHF, NZD/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD.

Note GBP/NZD on bottom of GBP favored list. I knew GBP/NZD wouldn’t trade correctly and this was a good call.

The trades

EUR/USD. Break Point 1.1501, below targets 1.1215.
Strategy. Short 1.1894 and 1.1912 to target 1.1644. Must cross 1.1858, 1.1822, 1.1786, 1.1750, 1.1714 and 1.1678. Cautious long 1.1644 to target 1.1786. Long only strategy.
EUR/JPY. Break Point 122.86, below targets 120.56.
Strategy. Short 126.30 and 126.58 to target 124.57. Must cross 126.02, 125.74, 125.46, 125.18, 124.90 and 124.62. Cautious long 124.57 to target 125.18. Long only strategy.
EUR/NZD. Break Point 1.7716, below targets 1.7554.
Strategy. Short anywhere or 1.8101 and 1.8111 to target 1.7837. Must cross 1.8061, 1.8021, 1.7981, 1.7941, 1.7901 and 1.7861. Weekly strategy.
USD/CAD. Break Point 1.3462, above targets 1.3603.
Strategy. Long 1.3212 and 1.3194 to target 1.3435. Must cross 1.3247, 1.3282, 1.3317, 1.3352, 1.3387 and 1.3422. Long above 1.3462 to target 1.3603. Cautious short 1.3435 to target 1.3319. Short only strategy.
CAD/JPY. Break Point 79.39, below targets 78.78.
Strategy. Short anywhere or 80.38 and 80.50 to target 79.52. Must cross 80.13, 79.89 and 79.64. Short below 79.39 to target 78.78. Must cross 79.27, 79.15 and 78.89. Long 78.78 to target 79.21. Long only strategy.
NZD/CHF. Break Point 0.6054, above targets 0.6106.
Strategy. Long anywhere or 0.5949 and 0.5938 to target 0.6038. Long above 0.6054 to target 0.6106. Must cross 0.6075 and 0.6096. Short 0.6106 to target 0.6075. Long only strategy.
EUR/AUD. Break Point 1.6511, above targets 1.6671.
Strategy. Long 1.6432 and 1.6416 to target 1.6485. Must cross 1.6447, 1.6462 and 1.6477. Long above 1.6511 to target 1.6671. Must cross 1.6526, 1.6541, 1.6556, 1.6571, 1.6586, 1.6601, 1.6617, 1.6631, 1.6647 and 1.66 2. Short 1.6671 to target 1.6574. Cautious short 1.6485 to target 1.6385.
AUD/JPY. Break Point 74.44, below targets 72.70.
Strategy. Short 76.92 and 77.05 to target 75.10. Must cross 76.70, 76.48, 76.26, 76.04, 75.82, 75.60 and 75.38. Long 75.10 to target 76.17. Long only strategy.
AUD/USD. Break Point 0.6970, below targets 0.6868.
Strategy. Short 0.7226 and 0.7239 to target 0.7073. Must cross 0.7201, 0.7176, 0.7151, 0.7126, 0.7101 and 0.7076. Long 0.7073 to target 0.7149. Long only strategy.
AUD/CHF. Break Point 0.6497, below targets 0.6408.
Strategy. Short 0.6581 and 0.6598 to target 0.6514. Must cross 0.6564, 0.6547, 0.6531 and 0.6522. Short below 0.6497 to target 0.6408. Must cross 0.6480, 0.6464, 0.6447 and 0.6430. Long 0.6408 to target 0.6447. Cautious long 0.6514 to target 0.6564. Long only strategy.
NZD/JPY. Break Point 69.36, below targets 68.52.
Strategy. Short 70.21 and 70.42 to target 69.57. Must cross 69.99 and 69.77. Short below 69.36 to target 68.52. Must cross 69.14, 68.92 and 68.70. Long 68.57 to target 70.09. Cautious long 69.57 to target 70.21. Long only strategy.
NZD/USD. Break Point 0.6493, below targets 0.6389.
Strategy. Short 0.6598 and 0.6612 to target 0.6508. Must cross 0.6584, 0.6570, 0.6556, 0.6542, 0.6528 and 0.6514. Short below 0.6493 to target 0.6389. Must cross 0.6479, 0.6465, 0.6451, 0.6437, 0.6423, 0.6409 and 0.6395. Long 0.6389 to target 0.6448. Cautious Long 0.6508 to target 0.6567. Long only strategy.
Favored trades this week: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD.
GBP/USD. Break Point 1.2832, below targets 1.2623.
Strategy. Short 1.3132 and 1.3146 to target 1.2884. Must cross 1.3106, 1.3080, 1.3054, 1.3028, 1.3002, 1.2976, 1.2950, 1.2924 and 1.2898. Long 1.2884 to target 1.2989. Long only strategy.
GBP/JPY. Break Point 137.11, below targets 136.30.
Strategy. Short anywhere or 139.48 and 139.67 to target 137.50. Must cross 139.08, 138.68, 138.28 and 137.88. Long 137.50 to target 138.28. Long only strategy.
GBP/CHF. Break Point 1.1966, above targets 1.2071.
Strategy. Long 1.1833 and 1.1820 to target 1.1940. Must cross 1.1859, 1.1885, 1.1911 and 1.1937. Long above 1.1966 to target 1.2071. Must cross 1.1992, 1.2018 and 1.2044. Short 1.2071 to target 1.2019. Cautious short 1.1940 to target 1.1886. Long only strategy.
GBP/NZD. Break Point 1.9771, below targets 1.9669.
Strategy. Short 2.0026 and 2.0038 to target 1.9847. Must cross 2.0001, 1.9976, 1.9951, 1.9926, 1.9901, 1.9876 and 1.9851. Long 1.9847 to target 1.9924. Weekly strategy.
GBP/AUD. Break Point 1.8429, above targets 1.8599.
Strategy. Long 1.8172 and 1.8151 to target 1.8365. Must cross 1.8214, 1.8256, 1.8298 and 1.8340. Short 1.8365 to target 1.8258. Weekly strategy.
GBP/CAD. Break Point 1.7267, below targets 1.7156.
Strategy. Short 1.7406 and 1.7420 to target 1.7281. Must cross 1.7378, 1.7350, 1.7323, 1.7309 and 1.7295. Short below 1.7267 to target 1.7156. Cautious long 1.7281 to target 1.7350. Weekly strategy.
                      Brian Twomey    brian@btwomey.com

GBP/JPY and EUR/NZD Trade Results

As stated in the Aug 16 weekly outlook, EUR/USD required a break of 1.1977 to move higher. EUR/USD traded to weekly highs at 1.1964 then dropped. DXY requires a break higher at 93.52 to trade 93.52 to 95.70.

Further to weeklies, overbought JPY cross pairs would all drop. All dropped. NZD/JPY faces its do or die break point at 69.22 and currently trades 69.21.

Deeply oversold NZD/CHF trades below its vital high/ low point at 0.6031. If NZD/JPY breaks below 69.22 then NZD/USD 0.6485 becomes the target break for lower. But also the signal to EUR and GBP to trade far lower. Current NZD/USD trades 0.6529.

More, NZD/CHF lomg was the trade for the week and NZD/CHF traded directly to its vital point at 0.6034. GBP/CHF long traded 200 pips higher.

AUD/USD as mentioned remains neutral. Neutrality for AUD/USD is due to EUR/AUD vital high /low point at 1.6519 and AUD/EUR at 0.6056 or EUR/AUD 1.6512. AUD/USD is ready for the bigger move on resolution of EUR/AUD and AUD/EUR. A EUR/AUD break higher then AUD/USD and AUD/EUR trade lower and higher if EUR/AUD breaks lower. AUD/USD and AUD/EUR run together and its imperative to travel as one currency pair.

EUR/AUD correlations run -64% Vs EUR/USD which means EUR/AUD runs +64% to AUD/USD. AUD trades correctly but requires a resolution to EUR/AUD.

Lower for the week to GBP and GBP traded lower.

The extent to our weekly trades is to trade 18 currency pairs and its our way for many years.

Prices for the vast majority of 28 currency pairs are trading at fairly normal levels again after an abnormal month. Slight uncertainty remains Vs a few currency pairs but overall, we’re nearly back to complete normality.

Weekly Trade Results


Short anywhere or 139.48 and 139.67 to target 137.50
Highs 139.96, Lows 138.56
Trade runs +111 pips


Short anywhere or 1.8101 and 1.8111 to target 1.7837
Highs, 1.8190, Lows 1.7952
Trade from 1.8111 runs +159 pips.
2 trades, 270 pips

EUR/NZD joins the ranks to an abnormal currency pairs as overbought 1.8111 travels to higher overbought. Abnormal refers to trading to extremes and rare days for currency prices overall.


Brian Twomey


Trade Results: USD/TRY, USD/PLN, USD/RON

USD/TRY Weekly Trade

USD/TRY for the past 2 weeks represents the gift that keeps on giving. USD/TRY remains deeply overbought short, medium and long term. USD/TRY could easily achieve a low 6.000’s exchange rate.

Short 7.3956 and 7.4123 to target 7.2284. Better target 7.1949
Highs 7.4016, Lows 7.2062
Trade ran +`1954 pips.


Long 3.6853 and 3.6988 to target 3.7668. Better target 3.7939.
Lows 6.6637, Highs 3.7214
Trade runs from 3.6853 + 361 pips from 3.6852
Long way to target


Long 4.0652 and 4.0780 to target 4.1290. Better target 4.1546.
Lows 4.0426, Highs 4.0922
Trade Runs +270 pips

3 trades, 3 days +2585 pips

1 lot was added to USD/PLN and USD/RON at the lows.


Open Monday at 3.7127 and entry at 3.6853. Traders could’ve easily taken this trade short to 4.6853 for 300 ish pips then reverse long and trade to target or to a satisfactory exit level. The same opportunity existed for USD/RON.
USD/RON opened at 4.0830 and traded to lows to entry at 4.0652 and lows at 4.0426. Traders could’ve easily traded USD/RON short for 300 ish pips then reversed long and trade to target or to a satisfactory exit level.


Brian Twomey

5 and 10 year Averages: 18 Pair Update

EUR/USD 10 year average is located at 1.2179. A break higher then range becomes 1.2179 to the 14 year average at 1.2657. Next levels 1.2040 1.2113, 1.2186 and 10 year at 1.2179. Massive resistance at 1.2179 and 1.2186.

EUR/JPY 5 and 10 year averages as follows: 124.91 and 123.35 then the 14 year at 129.17.

EUR/CHF 5 year average 1.1084.

EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD and EUR/NZD all trade far above 5, 10 and 14 year averages.

GBP/USD 5 year average 1.3237

GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF trade below 5, 10 and 14 year averages.

GBP/AUD 5 year average 1.8220. A break higher targets 1.8611.

AUD/USD 5 year average 0.7281. Must break 0.7243 and 0.7369. Massive resistance point located at 0.7295.

AUD/JPY and AUD/CHF trade below 5 and 10 year averages.

AUD/NZD ranges between 5 and 10 year averages at 1.0700 and 1.1357

AUD/CAD confluence between 5 and 14 year averages at 0.9582 and 0.8593 then next comes the 14 year at 0.9817.

NZD/USD, NZD/JPY and NZD/CHF all trade comfortably below 5, 10 and 14 year averages.

NZD/CAD is key to NZD/USD as the 10 year average is located at 0.8686

USD/CAD 1.3190 is today’s 5 year average and VS GBP/USD at 1.3237. Do or die is upon us.

CAD/JPY 83.93 at the 5 year average.

USD/CHF 10 year average 0.9541 and miles oversold.


Brian Twomey

Joseph Tevisani: Economic Backward View

Good example to the backward economic view masqueraded as a forward perspective to tomorrow’s FOMC. Mr. graduate of elite Columbia University brings nothing, says nothing and reveals no actionable information. After reading this, is anybody more prepared for FOMC, is anyone ready and able to understand what ‘s coming tomorrow. No.

Who is the audience for such an article. New and inexperienced traders as this is the target assembly. Fxstreet reports trade experience levels of readers at 1 to 3 years. Most are new traders and many blow accounts and disappear then comes the new crowd of new traders. This process never ends. And explains why articles of this type are accepted.

Also explains the Blake Morrow, Pipczar types and how fxstreet trade service remains a viable entity today despite losses since inception beyond comprehension. The target audience for trade services are these new traders. Because new traders constantly disappear, its imperative for trade services to repeatedly post to entrap and reap subscription benefits. The competition for new traders is fierce as many trade services post articles in order to find suckers.

Interesting though to trade service articles is the commonality to write about a currency pair, show a chart but say nothing. And this is the way  the vast majority post articles.

Preparation for FOMC is a must to read past minutes and statement in order to know exactly what the fed is doing and how they wish to accomplish monetary goals. The picture is crystal clear but if the audience is new traders then why bother.



  • Edited minutes of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.
  • Fed funds rate and emergency programs unchanged.
  • Any mention of yield curve control is a negative for the dollar.
  • Markets looking for indications of long term economic view.

The Federal Reserve was the earliest government agency to act on the coronavirus pandemic.  The bank’s rate and loan programs enacted in March have helped to mitigate the effects of the shutdowns that devastated the economy and produced the worst unemployment since the Depression.

Fed funds rate


Since that intervention the Fed has maintained its policies, using bond purchases to push mortgage rates to their lowest levels on record but has eschewed other action while warning of the long-term impacts of the pandemic.

Markets are chiefly concerned about the governors’ forward view.  Employment and economic growth are the Fed’s main concerns, followed at a discrete rhetorical distance by inflation.

Pessimistic optimistic or neutral whatever light the minutes can shed on the FOMC’s future sight will be taken as pronouncements by the trading markets.

Employment and growth

The dismal tale of the shutdown crash of employment is well known.   Over 22 million American lost their jobs in March and April in the non-farm payrolls accounting.  About 42%, just more than 9 million have since been rehired. The losses were heaviest among hourly and lower wage workers the same labor groups that before the pandemic had some of the lowest unemployment on record and the highest wages gains in a generation.

Non-farm payrolls


Growth collapsed in the second quarter falling at an unheard of 32.9% annualized rate.  The prospective recovery in the July, August and September, as charted by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow program has jumped from 11.9% in its first estimate to 26.2% in its August 14th version.


Inflation has been for a decade and more the step-child of Fed policy as the Fed focused on recovery from the financial crisis and recession.  The crash in consumer demand as most Americans were locked in their homes in March and April drove prices into reverse.  Their partial revival has been a function of returning demand rather than any reflationary efforts by the central bank.



Minutes and markets

The FOMC are edited productions designed to enhance and elucidate current Fed policy. All of the Fed’s three main concerns, growth, employment and inflation, are answerable to the same policy: lower interests rates.

There is one areas in which the minutes may provide useful clues to future Fed decisions. How serious is the discussion of yield curve control, the extension of control to longer term interest rates?

Yield curve control, or as we call it, Y2C, was not mentioned in the FOMC statement or by Chairman Powell in his prepared statement or in the news conference. If there is any serious consideration it will show here. If the topic is more than academic it will be a sign that the governors are more worried than they have let on and will not bode well for the dollar.


Brian Twomey


Brian Twomey V AUD/USD Pivot Points


Pivot Points seems a popular trading indicator for the retail crowd. Given 0.7202 to my assumption is a middle equilibrium line then 3 support and resistance points. I believe the calculation is high/ low then divide by close. Today’s Pivot Points were lifted from some guy’s article at fxstreet. Let’s look first at 0.7202 as the Pivots Points are off.

    1. R3 0.7303
    2. R2 0.7265
    3. R1 0.7240
  1. PP0.7202
    1. S1 0.7177
    2. S2 0.7139
    3. S3 0.7114

AUD/USD Day Trade Today


 Most Important 0.7196 and 0.7221 Vs 0.7229, 0.7234, 0.7238, 0.7243, 0.7252, 0.7257 and 0.7262
 Bottom. 0.7188 achieves by 0.7206 and 0.7197
 Upper target 0.7262
 Continuation fail 0.7243
Pivot 0.7202 Vs is at today’s AUD bottom but not equilibrium. The equilibrium line is higher by about 25 ish pips.
The upside at 0.7243 and 0.7262 is close to 0.7240 and 0.7265. Pivots are off by 3 pips.
The bottom Pivot Point support stops at 0.7114 but its vital to consider 0.7080 and 0.7029 especially for a weekly trade and its most vital to normal traded markets. Our weekly lower target this week for example is well below 0.7114.
0.7183 is dead center neutral Vs 0.7177 at R1 Resistance. And 0.7183 dead center neutral is 19 pips off from 0.7202 equilibrium. Pips matter as every traded pip represents money and we don’t want to miss capture of money.
My 0.,7286 and Pivot 0.7265 must highlight and not seen is the 5 year average at today’s 0.7281. If 0.7281 breaks and sustains then a brand new upward trend exists and nullifies the upper Pivot at 0.7303. My point at 0.7389 becomes next target area.
A failure at 0.7281 and an overbought price for today then AUD trades much lower to again focus on 0.7183.
Overall, AUD is slowly pushing higher against a severely overbought trend. Over time, as can be seen, AUD will trade miles lower and 0.6800 and 0.6700’s are good eventual longer term targets.
One of the big four banks days ago wrote a 0.6400’s AUD target. From current levels, 0.6400’s is insanity and most especially because AUD averages have been moving higher. For the past almost 2 weeks, AUD averages became dead which means they stopped moving. Moment of truth is here. if AUD averages begin moving lower then good bye to a higher AUD.
Then what happens is the  banks’ target at 0.6400’s will begin to move higher along the price path but it must move to at least the current 0.6700’s position.
 My points look ahead  by many miles compared to Pivot Points. My Points are updated daily. Updated daily may mean multiple times per day. For a central bank announcement, my points calculate new trades specific to cover any central bank decision. Trades are known before the announcement.
The Brexit vote 3 years ago was a specific calculation to the event as was past election results.
However, daily trades are factored by interest rates and may or may not apply to below points.
This comparison is not to disparage Pivot Points but only to analyze its accuracy and overall determination to trades. I always wondered how my points relate to today’s trading indicators.
Plus Minus
0.7080 0.6874
0.7183 0.6771
0.7286 0.6668
0.7389 0.6565
0.7492 0.6462
0.7595 0.6359
0.7698 0.6256
0.7801 0.6153
    Brian Twomey


Blake Morrow, PipCzar: Dumb as a Rock

Pip czar is head of this big trade service with brother dale. He sets up tables at money shows to reel n unsuspected customers. And is head man at Chris Weston’s webinars at Pepperstone. For Pip Czar, its a no lose deal. For customers, complete loss.

Chart of the day is the latest innovation to many of the leading names out there. Its the usual cabal of leading names ganging up on the unsuspected retail crowd. yet all names are complete losers in the Boris Schlosssberg and Kathy lien crowd.

The commonality to writings is words say absolutely nothing nor do charts specify anything. Its not the Blake Morrow crowd alone  as this bottom post is typical to what is seen at fxstreet and investing dot com.

1 hour says, 4 hour says, Fib says, a non accurate Ma says. Then comes the coulda, woulda, shoulda. Looks like. Its possible, probability. Don’t forget the backwards information as Covid, past retail sales, Fed Man said.

In the end, today’s FX contains millions of market and currency pair posts that say nothing and reveal an equally non revealing chart.


How dumb is Blake Morrow is shown below


The USD/CAD turned from the 1.3400 level today and that was important price action. The reason: It was major channel resistance from the March highs. This is significant as it suggests that a break above the 1.3400 level could kickstart a squeeze back towards the 200dma. Two other things you should note: 1) The pair put in a false breakdown last week below the 1.3310 level. 2) As other major currencies have rallied substantially against the USD in recent weeks, the underperformance of the CAD is noticeable. If you are long CAD in some form, you are probably well aware of this, especially against the USD. If you put all this information together, the risk of a USDCAD upside move is building.


Brian Twomey


Week 2 to overbought all JPY cross pairs and we’ll run again with GBP/JPY. Overbought EUR/NZD offered about +177 pips last week but 1.7600’s target failed to achieve. Entry short to EUR/NZD doesn’t matter to offer the degree of overbought. Entry short to GBP/JPY hardly matters as well.

EM trades last week earned +7000 ish pips. BRL and TRY achieved targets and both offered re shorts for many extra pips. EUR/ZAR target at 20.4000 achieved 20.4100 lows from 20.8300’s. USD/MYR and USD/RON each earned + 200 ish pips. Both are the same exact currency pair as both contain a 4.000 exchange rate.

USD/PLN wasn’t offered last week because its price position wasn’t ready for a viable trade. This week, USD/PLN is in a far better position and we’ll run with it this week. USD/TRY remains the gift that keeps on giving as it begins the week overbought from 7.37 and the same short trade from last week.


Short anywhere or 1.8101 and 1.8111 to target 1.7837


Short anywhere or 139.48 and 139.67 to target 137.50
Long 137.50 to target 138.28


Long 3.6853 and 3.6988 to target 3.7668. Better target 3.7939.


Short 7.3956 and 7.4123 to target 7.2284. Better target 7.1949


Long 4.0652 and 4.0780 to target 4.1290. Better target 4.1546.


Brian Twomey

EUR/USD: Short and Long Term

EUR/USD long and short term as run through long term models reveals a massively overbought EUR and further upside contrasts to immense hurdles to advance higher.

For further upside, EUR/USD must break 1.1977 then the most vital 10 year average at 1.2180. The absolute top for EUR is located at 1.2527.

On the assumption 1.1977 breaks then the upward price path for next important levels are as follows: 1.2073, 1.2216, 1.2302, 1.2359 then on to 1.2500’s. Most vital in this series is 1.2302 because it represents a range break.

On the downside, EUR/USD is richter scale overbought from 1.1100’s to 1.1400’s. The trend changes to the downside on a break of 1.1501. To achieve lower levels, EUR/USD must break 1.1792 and 1.1785 then 1.1736.

As EUR/USD trades between its 5 and 10 year averages at 1.1293 and 1.2180, the vital mid point is located at 1.1736. EUR/USD remains the odd ball currency pair among the entire 28 currencies due to its trade at 10 year averages. The vast majority of currency pairs to include GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD trade below 5 year averages.

As 1.1501 represents trend change, EUR/USD faces 3 hurdles at MA 1.1477 and vital range points at 1.1450 and 1.1427 then on to 1.1300’s. EUR/USD’s biggest impediment is the 5 year average at 1.1293 and a rising line. A rising line and a falling EUR/USD informs topside momentum is losing steam and shorts is the way forward.

EUR/USD is running on all Correlation cylinders to its cross pairs as follows: EUR/USD Vs EUR/JPY +99%, Vs EUR/NZD +78%.

EUR/AUD is odd currency at -64% which means not only will EUR/AUD move together with DXY but negative correlations explains deep neutrality and non movements to AUD/USD. Deeply overbought EUR/NZD correlations to EUR/USD turned positive this week Vs deep negative over the past 2 weeks.

As written last week, DXY 10 year average is located at 89.22. Downside levels to DXY are located at 93.52, 91.98 and 90.56 then the 10 year at 89.22. A break higher at 93.52 then DXY is located between 93.52 to 95.70. A break of 96.39 at the 5 year average would experience significant upside momentum.

EUR/USD Vs DXY for both 10 year averages are located at 1.2180 Vs 89.22. And 5 year averages are located at 1.1293 Vs 96.39. Overall, 28 currency pairs are waiting on this resolution.

EUR/USD Vs NZD/USD correlates to + 95%. NZD/USD as the preeminent currency market signal pair due to the lowest exchange rate among 60 + currency pairs, contains a change of trend break point at 0.6493. A break lower at 0.6493 then automatically informs EUR/USD topside is done and heading much lower.

For the week, EUR/USD targets breaks at 1.1792, 1.1785 and 1.1736 to trade to 1.1600’s.

Top trade for the week is short EUR/NZD, lower for JPY cross pairs, particularly GBP/JPY while lower for GBP/USD. GBP/NZD correlates to GBP/USD at +06 and will struggle for the week in search of direction.

AUD/USD remains neutral and NZD/USD and cross pairs are oversold. NZD/CHF long is the best trade for NZD while GBP/CHF is deeply oversold to match oversold NZD/CHF.


Brian Twomey


EUR/USD broke higher above its 5 year average at 1.1282 and traded to 1.1900’s.

DXY broke below its 5 year average at 96.39 and traded lower to 92.00’s.

EUR/USD 10 year average is located at 1.2180 while DXY 10 year average is located at 89.22. EUR/USD at 1.1800’s is within 300 pips of its 10 year average while DXY at 92.00’s is within 300 pips to its 10 year average.

DXY break of its 10 year average then tough supports exist at 88.39 and 87.98. EUR/USD Break of its 10 year average then next comes 1.2250, 1.2321 and 1.2462 and just ahead of the mid point at 1.2745.

EUR/USD currently trades between 1.1282 and 1.2180 while DXY trades between 89.22 and 96.39 at its 5 year average. The EUR/USD mid point is located at 1.1731 and dropping by 4 pips each week while DXY mid point is located at 92.80.

DXY currently trades between 93.52 and next low average at 91.98 or from 93.52 to 95.70. For DXY 93.52 is its most vital average to determine lower of higher. below 91.98 then next comes 90.56, 89.22 and 88.39.

The lower DXY trades then volatility picks up steam while the higher EUR/USD trades then the higher is volatility and its a factor of both DXY and EUR/USD ranges. EUR/USD currently ranges right at 428 pips while DXY ranges at 279 pips. EUR/USD and DXY don’t trade a 1 for 1 pip move.

EUR/USD is overbought from 1.1282 while DXY is oversold from 96.39. EUR/USD is more overbought than DXY is oversold but again a factor to ranges.

Good lower targets for EUR/USD are located at 1.1628 and 1.1557 while good targets for DXY is located right at 95.70. A break higher at 95.70 targets the 5 year average at 96.39.

Determination time is here as EUR/USD breaks its 10 year average at 1.2180 and travels higher or it fails and trades back to its 5 year average at 1.1282. Or DXY breaks its 10 year average and trades lower to 88.00 or its fails and trades back to its 5 year average at 96.39.

The entire G28 pair currency market and 40 + most significant EM currencies are waiting for the resolution. If 10 year average breaks occur then a new trend begins and a failure means significant moves back to 5 year averages.


Brian Twomey

EUR/ZAR Weekly Trade Result and Update


Yesterday Results

Short 20.8159 to target 20.4004.

Highs 20.9319, Lows 20.6728

Wild upside Ride

Trade Runs from 20.8159 +1431 pips

From 20.9319 and add 1 lot then +2591 pips

Long way to target

Today Trade Results

Short 20.8159 to target 20.4004.

Lows 20.5094

Trade Runs from 20.8159 +3065 pips

From 20.9319, +4225 pips

To weekly totals add 1634 pips

Old Total 9 trades, 2 days, +4707 Pips

New total 9 trades, 2 days and +6341 pips

The week contains 3 more days of trading for all our currency pairs

Last time posted EM trades to this degree the total as I recall was 6000 ish pips

This week, I will break smash the old record.

Subtract EUR/ZAR entry then all trades contained near perfect entries. Targets have yet to achieve.

EUR/ZAR remains overbought at target 20.4004. Remainder trades remain oversold as follows: USD/RON, USD/HUF, USD/MYR,
USD/TRY and USD/BRL remain deeply overbought.

Same story to EM trades, no stops, no charts, no market banter talk that earns no money and is non actionable information.

Brian Twomey


USD/TRY fresh Weekly Trades As posted yesterday

Short 7.3355 or anywhere in the vicinity to target 7.2227. Better target is 7.1662.
Highs 7.3494, Lows 7.2186

Trade Ran from entry Instruction +1128 pips

Target from 1st Trade 7.2276 achieved

2 Trades, 2 days, +1987 pips


Long 4.1812 and 4.1779 to target 4.2109
Lows 4.1866, Highs 4.2064

missed entry, However Trade Runs +198 Pips

And 45 pips to target


Long 4.0955 and 4.0892 to target 4.1711
Lows 4.0978, Highs 4.1237

Trade Runs + 259 pips

Long way to target


Long 292.13 and 291.72 to target 297.32
Lows 292.65, Highs 294.36

Trade Runs +171 pips

Long way to target

2nd round Longs, here today


Short 20.8159 to target 20.4004.
Highs 20.9319, Lows 20.6728

Wild upside Ride

Trade Runs from 20.8159 +1431 pips

From 20.9319 and add 1 lot then +2591 pips

Long way to target


Fresh Trade entered Yesterday from 5.48

Weekly Trade Results

USDTRY 2 trades +1987 pips

USDBRL +859 Pips

EURZAR +1431 pips and 2531

USDRON 259 pips

USDHUF 171 pips

USDMYR +198 pips

8 trades, 2 days + 4563 Pips


Short 1.7855 and 1.7880 to target 1.7683
Highs 1.7873, Lows 1.7729

Trade runs +144 pips

Total 9 trades, 2 days, +4707 Pips


Brian Twomey

USD/TRY and USD/BRL: New Trades

Both USD/TRY and USD/BRL are at short point highs again and this means Re Short for another weekly trade


Short 7.3355 or anywhere in the vicinity to target 7.2227. This target leaves USD/TRY in deep overbought territory. Better target is 7.1662.

Current USD/TRY trades at 7.3300’s, a fresh trade is upon us.


Short 5.4977 and 5.4876 to target 5.4170.

Current USD/BRL trades 5.4818, a fresh trade is upon us.


Brian Twomey