Trades: NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD

Both EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD are the same currencies. NZD/USD is the opposite. If NZD/USD goes short then EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD go long. If NZD/USD goes long then EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD goes short. Multiple trades now exist for RBNZ. Plus multiple trades exist per currency pair.

NZD/USD

Long above 0.6267 to target 0.6311. Levels: 0.6275, 0.6284, 0.6292, 0.6301, 0.6309, 0.6318.

Short 0.6311 to target 0.6301

Short below 0.6267 to target 0.6223. Levels: 0.6259, 0.6241, 0.6223, 0.6215

Long 0.6223 to target 0.6233

Target to Target: 0.6311 and 0.6223

EUR/NZD
Long above 1.7219 to target 1.7288. Levels: 1.7232, 1.7246, 1.7259, 1.7273, 1.7286, 1.7300
Short 1.7288 to target 1.7273
Short below 1.7219 to target 1.7149. Levels: 1.7206, 1.7192, 1.7179, 1.7165, 1.7152, 1.7138
Long 1.7149 to target 1.7165
Target to Target: 1.7288 and 1.7149

GBP/NZD

Long above 1.9812 to target 1.9899. Levels: 1.9829, 1.9846, 1.9863, 1.9880, 1.9897

Short 1.9899 to target 1.9880

Short below 1.9812 to target 1.9724. Levels: 1.9795, 1.9778, 1.9761, 1.9744, 1.9727, 1.9710

Long 1.9724 to target 1.9744

Target to Target: 1.9899 and 1.9724

Brian Twomey

RBNZ Interest Rates for May 2023 Meeting

Cash rate (%pa)		Bank bill yields (%pa)			Secondary market government bond yields (%pa)				Swap rate spread close (bps)
Date	Official Cash Rate (OCR)	Overnight interbank cash rate	30 days	60 days	90 days	1 year1	2 year1	5 year	10 year	2-10s2
10 May 2023	5.25	–	5.51	5.57	5.62	5.25	4.70	4.10	4.17	-81
11 May 2023	5.25	–	5.50	5.56	5.61	5.23	4.63	4.05	4.12	-83
12 May 2023	5.25	–	5.51	5.56	5.60	5.23	4.60	4.01	4.08	-76
15 May 2023	5.25	–	5.51	5.55	5.58	5.19	4.54	3.96	4.05	-78
16 May 2023	5.25	–	5.55	5.59	5.64	5.25	4.63	4.05	4.12	-82
17 May 2023	5.25	–	5.54	5.59	5.65	5.25	4.67	4.08	4.16	-89
18 May 2023	5.25	–	5.57	5.63	5.70	5.34	4.78	4.19	4.26	-96
19 May 2023	5.25	–	5.63	5.72	5.79	5.52	5.04	4.41	4.41	-105
22 May 2023	5.25	–	5.68	5.77	5.82	5.57	5.08	4.43	4.42	-100
23 May 2023	5.25	–	5.67	5.75	5.83	5.57	5.03	4.40	4.40	–

_{[1] Where there is no suitable benchmark bond, none is reported. See series description for details.[2] The spread between the 2 and 10 year swap rate is presented in basis points to better align with market conventions.}

OCR at 5.25 matches the FED at 5.25. The RBNZ interest rates historically were priced far above Fed Rates. The 5, 4 and 3 day higher rates qualifies to RBNZ raise. How far back was this seen. Many, days is the answer. Rare day to disappoint with no raise under the 5 day rule scenario. Only 2 options for RBNZ: raise or on hold. OCR at 5.25 vs Inflation 6.7.

I will post NZD trades this evening long before RBNZ. What will all see. NZD/USD minimum 32 and Max at 62. Maybe in 1 direction.

Brian Twomey

RBNZ Interest Rates; Raise or no Raise

Cash rate (%pa)		Bank bill yields (%pa)			Secondary market government bond yields (%pa)				Swap rate spread close (bps)
Date	Official Cash Rate (OCR)	Overnight interbank cash rate	30 days	60 days	90 days	1 year1	2 year1	5 year	10 year	2-10s2
09 May 2023	5.25	–	5.50	5.56	5.62	5.25	4.77	4.15	4.20	-83
10 May 2023	5.25	–	5.51	5.57	5.62	5.25	4.70	4.10	4.17	-81
11 May 2023	5.25	–	5.50	5.56	5.61	5.23	4.63	4.05	4.12	-83
12 May 2023	5.25	–	5.51	5.56	5.60	5.23	4.60	4.01	4.08	-76
15 May 2023	5.25	–	5.51	5.55	5.58	5.19	4.54	3.96	4.05	-78
16 May 2023	5.25	–	5.55	5.59	5.64	5.25	4.63	4.05	4.12	-82
17 May 2023	5.25	–	5.54	5.59	5.65	5.25	4.67	4.08	4.16	-89
18 May 2023	5.25	–	5.57	5.63	5.70	5.34	4.78	4.19	4.26	-96
19 May 2023	5.25	–	5.63	5.72	5.79	5.52	5.04	4.41	4.41	-105
22 May 2023	5.25	–	5.68	5.77	5.82	5.57	5.08	4.43	4.42	–

_{[1] Where there is no suitable benchmark bond, none is reported. See series description for details.[2] The spread between the 2 and 10 year swap rate is presented in basis points to better align with market conventions.}

See the 30, 60 and 90 day rates move 5 points. The 30 and 60 day rates qualify for raise. The 1 year rate qualifies.

Brian Twomey

Long Term Targets: USD/CNY, USD/MYR, USD/TRY, USD/RON, USD/BRL, USD/CZK

Overbought GBP/JPY at the 33 year monthly average is the same story from the perspective of EM/JPY as all EM/ JPY currencies trade at massive overbought levels. Take a pick, throw a dart and short.
Overbought begins at BGN/JPY, BRL/JPY, CNY/JPY, DKK/JPY, INR/JPY, ISK/JPY, KRW/JPY, MXN/JPY, MYR/JPY, PHP/JPY, PLN/JPY, SGD/JPY, THB/JPY. All EM/JPY are consistent to overbought USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY.

Overbought DXY and USD is compatible to severely overbought to USD/CNY, USD/MYR, USD/RON, USD/TRY. The extraordinary currency is USD/TRY as light years of distance exist to targets at 18.8710 and 16.2304 from 19.000’s. USD/BRL contains a short only strategy in accordance with USD however USD/BRL overbought Vs oversold within its price path are fighting against each other.

USD/CZK is a bright and shiny currency pair however oversold USD/CZK is also fighting against the USD and DXY overbought trend. What accounts for USD/CZK is the massive trade ranges available. USD/CZK has every ability to trade 3 and 4,000 pips and this range wouldn’t dent USD/CZK’s price. USD/CZK today is what USD/CNY was years ago to massive trade ranges.

Massive overbought to USD/CNY, USD/MYR, USD/RON and USD/TRY means not only extreme overbought but all trade at uppermost tops. All are easy trades.

USD/CNY first vital break is located at 6.9466 then long term targets align as 6.8901, 6.8373, 6.8006 and caution at 6.7967.

USD/MYR on a break of 4.4725 targets 4.4415 and 4.3798 and caution at 4.3503. Holding USD/MYR from trading lower is 4.3546.

USD/RON requires a break at 4.5735 to target 4.5287 and 4.5129.

USD/CZK below 21.9476 and 22.0182 targets 21.5616.

USD/TRY targets not just 18.8710 and 16.2304 but remaining targets are located at 14.3986 and 13.0629. The weekly range is located from 19.9401 to 19.7277. Shorts for USD/TRY exists for months to come. USD/TRY will follow the USD trend miles lower.

USD/BRL below 5.0435 and 5.0487 targets 4.9531, 4.9520, 4.9037. Weekly range for longs and short: 5.0251 to 4.9561. Not much thrills to USD/BRL as overbought and oversold problems fight against each other however short only remains the strategy. The distant average below is located at 4.7786.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: GBP/USD Day Trade, GBP/JPY, EUR, GBP, JPY

The GBP/NZD target at 1.9733 and reported over last months achieved lows Friday at 1.9767. The trade duration from 2.0392 highs was 3 weeks. The leader currency and early warning to GBP/NZD’s fall was EUR/NZD as EUR/NZD completed its target at 1.7200’s 2 weeks ago from 1.8000 highs. As GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD accomplished targets, both are expected to join the rank and file of currencies trading in ranges.

GBP/USD over the past 56 trade days, traveled 859 pips, From a day trade perspective, here’s the pips and percentages.

GBP/USD for 15 of 56 trade days had 100 pips or above trade days or 26.10%. GBP/USD traded 41 days of 56 below 100 pips or 73.21%. GBP/USD 1 day traded 204 pips.

GBP/USD at 70 pip trade days = 10 of 56 or 17.86%. Below 70 pip trade days = 16 of 56 or 28.57%. GBP/USD at 60 pips and below = 10 of 56 or 17.86%.

GBP/USD below 70 and 60 pip trade days = 26 of 56 or 46.43%. GBP/USD 70 pip to 100 trade days = 25 of 56 or 14%.

GBP/USD in the past 56 trade days ranged from 1.1820 to 1.2679 or 859 pips. Take 859 divide 56 = 15.33. Speculation for 15.33 = Minimum pips that must trade. GBP/USD traded the vast majority of 859 pips from 15.33 to 70. A trade month factors at about 20 days, total 56 trade days is just short of 3 months.

GBP/JPY trades 170.37 to 172.24 – 174.83 at the 31, 32 and 33 year monthly averages. GBP/JPY’s big break for lower is located at 167.42. At 167.42 is located the 24 year monthly average and an easy break to accomplish.

GBP/JPY lower targets are located at averages about every 100 pips from 172.24 to 165.27. Once 165.27 breaks then GBP/JPY accelerates lower.

Conceivably, GBP/JPY from 40 year monthly averages or 480 data points could trade much higher to 190.00’s however averages from 148.00’s to 155.00’s are massively overbought to the 172.00 price and GBP/JPY’s location at the 33 year monthly average automatically informs GBP/JPY is miles to high.

The refinement to the long term model is to no longer view monthly averages and enter masses of data to find targets as the model condenses monthly averages into very few numbers to arrive at the same answer in less than 30 minutes. The model applies to 476 currency pairs.

GBP/JPY targets 165.44, 161.03, 160.23 and 159.18. GBP/JPY’s big break for lower is located at 158.75 at the 17 year monthly average. GBP/JPY’s overbought average at 158.75 has easy ability to break and GBP/JPY to trade much lower over time.

DXY 99.00’s at the 50 year monthly average, GBP/JPY 172.00’s at the 33 year monthly average informs USD/JPY and EUR/JPY trades at the upper monthly average Richter scale and non normal to currency markets.

Normal currency and market prices trades from the 1 to 10 year monthly averages. This is exactly where market prices are heading to achieve normality again.

The Week

EUR/USD big breaks are located at 1.0799, 1.0947, 1.1130 and 1.1300’s. Above 1.0947 targets 1.1006 and 1.1066. EUR/USD averages are dropping and not a good development for longs. EUR/USD however is trading far to close to DXY and for this reason alone, we are long and remain long over many weeks to come. A EUR drop below 1.0799 is a long opportunity.

GBP/USD big breaks are found at 1.2348, 1.2597 and 1.2858. GBP/USD averages are also dropping however any price in the vicinity of 1.2348 is a long opportunity.

Dropping averages are the result to overbought DXY. As DXY drops, EUR/USD and GBP/USD averages will again rise along with EUR/USD and GBP/USD prices.

USD/JPY targets easily 136.71 and the required break for lower is located at 135.62. The minimal target is 128.00’s. If as I suspect, USD/JPY trades at upper reaches to monthly averages then the 128.00 target is a breeze to achieve. Currently, USD/JPY must trade to 128.00’s as it doesn’t have any choice except to trade minimally at 128.00’s. Longer term target 122.00’s and 121.00’s.

As GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD achieved long term targets, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD are the only currency pairs remaining. EUR/AUD for lower must break 1.6116 and a short only strategy. GBP/AUD as our sleeper currency trades overbought above vital 1.8426.

Currency markets switched from trends to current ranges. This means weekly trades adjusts to range trades as 2 longs and 2 shorts per currency and per financial instrument to continuously trade and profit throughout the week.

NZD/USD trades overbought to oversold AUD/USD. No hurry to trade both however long AUD/USD is the best strategy. Overbought CAD/JPY trades in contention to overbought USD/CAD. No question to short CAD/JPY.

The 6 best currencies to trade and profit are EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD.

USD/EM

USD/EM currently contains many more miles of downside than long EUR/EM.

USD/CZK trades between 21.9479 to 22.0712. USD/CZK targets the break at 21.9479 then 21.8246.
USD/PLN trades 4.2363 to 4.1462. Short 4.2363 to target 4.1462.

USD/CNY trades massive overbought from 7.0076 and targets easily 6.9759
USD/DKK below 6.8997 targets 6.8020

USD/HUF targets 338.04 from 347.45
USD/MYR massive overbought at 4.5385 targets easily 4.4994.

SGD/MYR overbought from 3.3751 and targets 3.3632.

SGD as Sing Matches to MYR as Ring = the currency Sing/ Ring.

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD Day Trade Percentages

Day trades are derived from either the 7 1/2 hour trade from 2:30 am EST to 10:00 am EST or the 24 hour trade from 5 pm EST to 5 pm EST. The vast majority of trading occurs from 2:30 am to 10 am. The 24 hour trade allows profits from 5 pm to 2.30 am and from 10:00 am to 5 pm. Not 1 pip profit is missed in the 24 hour trade especially for central bank meetings for the RBA, RBNZ and BOJ.

The 24 hour trade allows to profit from outlier pips. If GBP/USD trades an 80 pip day, the full 60 ish pips will profit from the 7 hour trade and the additional 20 ish pips profit from the 24 hour trade.

How does GBP/USD 63 pips match to the past 56 trade days. Here’s the data and percentages.

GBP/USD 15 of 56 trade days, had 100 pips or above trade days or 26.10%. GBP/USD traded 41 days of 56 below 100 pips or 73.21%.

GBP/USD 1 day traded 204 pips.

GBP/USD at 70 pip trade days = 10 of 56 or 17.86%. Below 70 pip trade days = 16 of 56 or 28.57%.

GBP/USD at 60 pips and below = 10 of 56 or 17.86.

GBP/USD below 70 and 60 pip trade days = 26 of 56 or 46.43%.

GBP/USD 70 pip to 100 trade days = 25 of 56 or 14%.

GBP/USD in the past 56 trade days ranged from 1.1820 to 1.2679 or 859 pips. Take 859 divide 56 = 15.33. Speculation for 15.33 = Minimum pips that must trade.

GBP/USD = 63

Long Short Line 1.2424

Most Important 1.2393 and 1.2417 Vs 1.2431, 1.2439, 1.2447, 1.2455, 1.2471, 1.2479, 1.2487, 

Bottom 1.2361 achieves by 1.2376 and 1.2392

Upper Target 1.2487

Continuation Fail 1.2455

Brian Twomey

US 2 Year Yield Vs German 2 Year

Weekly Trades. Europe Ester 3.151 Vs Fed Funds 5.08. Any requests, feel free and glad to post.

USD 2 year

Long above 4.1219 to target 4.3238

Short 4.3238 to target 4.2773

Short below 4.1219 to target 3.9199

Long 3.9199 to target 3.9665

German 2 Year

Long above 2.6955 to target 2.8470

Short 2.8470 to target 2.812

Short below 2.6955 2.5441

Long 2.5441 to target 2.579

US 4.1219 Vs German = 4.1219 Vs 2.6955

US 3.3238 Vs German 2.8470

US 3.9199 Vs German 2.5441

Range 40 points V 30 points German.

I don’t know how to post pictures. Its all about numbers

Brian Twomey

FX Next Week: USD/JPY, JPY Cross Pairs, EUR, GBP

DXY at week’s beginning at low 102.00’s opened deeply overbought and decided to travel to a higher degree of overbought at 103.00’s. For next week, any price in the 103.00’s remains massively overbought and short is the only strategy.

Not only is DXY 103.00’s overbought but the crucial 105.00 line approaches. DXY at 105.00’s is not expected to break higher as this vital break represents a massive change to currency markets. Then consider the road for DXY to travel. Resistance points are located at every 100 pips from 105.00’s to 114.78 at the September highs.

Higher DXY sent USD/EM to richter scale overbought. The same short strategy remains for next week: Short USD/HUF, USD/CZK, USD/DKK, USD/RON, USD/MYR, USD/CNY. Overall, throw a dart, pick a USD currency and short.

USD/CZK from Sunday, Massive overbought USD/CZK from 21.7515 targets 21.5524 then 21.2501. Lows achieved 21.6300’s or 1200 pips. USD/DKK achieved 6.8200’s target from 6.8600’s.

EUR/PLN targets easily 4.5329 and 4.5630 from 4.5190, Target achieved at 4.5300;s.

EUR/USD opened the week at 1.0848. Sunday’s range 1.0827 to 1.0956. Next week range 1.0811 to 1.0951 and 1.0951 to 1.1132.

Overbought DXY sent EUR/USD to the brink at vital 1.0811. EUR/USD above 1.0811 trades massive oversold. EUR/USD traded from the range top at 1.0900’s to vital 1.0811. Overall EUR/USD traded a range.

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.2446. Last week’s range for GBP/USD: 1.2351 to 1.2602, 1.2602 to 1.2752 and 1.2752 to 1.2863. Next week: 1.2351 to 1.2600 and 1.2600 to 1.2750 and 1.2750 to 1.2860. Overall, GBP/USD traded a tiny range this week and higher is the way for next week.

Overbought DXY sent USD/JPY to extraordinary depths of overbought. USD/JPY began trading overbought at 133.00’s and 134.00’s and now 137.00’s. Longs were impossible especially as USD/JPY not only approaches the vital 152.00 line but massive overbought begins at 126.00’s and 120.00’s and many averages down to 104.00’s.

USD/JPY overbought means short, medium and long long term. To understand the overbought 126.00 line, the BOJ line is at 125.00’s and this line will drop to 123.00’s on a lower USD/JPY.

The BOJ views tops from 200 pips. Last top reported from the BOJ was 140.00’s. Today 142.00’s. The new BOJ interest rate arrangement disregards the need to intervene yet the BOJ last intervened at USD/JPY 149.00’s. USD/JPY now at 137.00’s deserves deep caution to the BOJ as the BOJ knows exactly what they are doing. We are not dealing with Stupid when it comes to USD/JPY.

EUR/JPY. What’s wrong with EUR/JPY. Here’s the usual daily price path: 148.93, 149.02, 149.11, 149.21, 149.40, 149.49, 149.59.

Note 149.11 to 149.21 and 149.49 to 149.59. The numbers reveal automatically, the spreads are far to wide and the price to high. A lower EUR/JPY must see a daily decrease to spread numbers within the price path.

EUR/JPY short for next week at any price in the severely overbought 149.00’s to target the eventual break at 146.22. GBP/JPY short next week at overbought 171.00’s to target the break at 167.08 then much lower to longer term targets.

USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are 3 outlier currencies holding up the progress to normality. GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY correlations to GBP/USD and EUR/USD ensures great moves and good profit opportunities for USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY.

From 28 currencies, 9 are the main focus to trade as follows: USD/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD. Remainder 19 currencies are severe under performers.

Gold

XAU/USD bottomed at 1600.00’s Vs EUR/USD at 0.9500’s and traveled 400 points to 2000.00’s.

Overall, required is the USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY correlation arrangement to right size to add trades and normality to the remainder 19 currencies.

Brian Twomey

NZD/USD Vs AUD/USD, RBNZ Vs RBA

The RBNZ releases exchange rate Fixes at 3 pm NZD time or 10 PM EST. Bank Bill mid rates are released at 11:10 NZD time or 6 PM EST. The RBNZ releases interest rates before exchange rates. This allows the ability to factor intertest rates first to apply to exchange rates. All central banks release interest rates before exchange rates. The interest rates controls the exchange rates through the many Fixes throughout the 24 hour trade period. This means tops, bottoms, support and resistance levels are known in advance. Every trade at every minute of everyday is known.

Interest rates correlate 100% to exchange rates. Its impossible to not correlate 100% to exchange rates. Interest rates are most important to trades, support and resistance levels and profits in the spot market. Money supplies are most important for Futures contracts. Both money supplies and interest rates together are important for a monetary policy picture.

Europe over the past 10 years had a far lower money supply then the FED. The goal was increase money supplies to match the Fed. How? By lowering interest rates to expand the money supply. Restrict the money supply means raise interest rates.

Interest rates and money supplies correlate negative 100%. Its impossible not to correlate negative 100%.

AUD and RBA are most important to begin the trade day at 3 am EST to Sydney 5 pm on release of exchange rates. OCR and bank bills are released at 9 am Sydney or 7 pm EST. AUD trades are known in advance.

Difference between the RBA and RBNZ is OCR moves in New Zealand while RBA remains the same ever4yday.

Interest rates already informed long ago, AUD and NZD would trade dead ranges. No distance.

Cash rate (%pa)		Bank bill yields (%pa)			Secondary market government bond yields (%pa)				Swap rate spread close (bps)
Date	Official Cash Rate (OCR)	Overnight interbank cash rate	30 days	60 days	90 days	1 year1	2 year1	5 year	10 year	2-10s2
04 May 2023	5.25	–	5.47	5.54	5.60	5.22	4.67	4.04	4.06	-91
05 May 2023	5.25	–	5.49	5.55	5.62	5.22	4.63	4.02	4.10	-87
08 May 2023	5.25	–	5.49	5.55	5.62	5.22	4.72	4.10	4.14	-88
09 May 2023	5.25	–	5.50	5.56	5.62	5.25	4.77	4.15	4.20	-83
10 May 2023	5.25	–	5.51	5.57	5.62	5.25	4.70	4.10	4.17	-81
11 May 2023	5.25	–	5.50	5.56	5.61	5.23	4.63	4.05	4.12	-83
12 May 2023	5.25	–	5.51	5.56	5.60	5.23	4.60	4.01	4.08	-76
15 May 2023	5.25	–	5.51	5.55	5.58	5.19	4.54	3.96	4.05	-78
16 May 2023	5.25	–	5.55	5.59	5.64	5.25	4.63	4.05	4.12	-82
17 May 2023	5.25	–	5.54	5.59	5.65	5.25	4.67	4.08	4.16

Actual RBA interest rates are offered by excel sheets and impossible to post. Bank Bills are offered but bank bills are not perfect to AUD trades as much as daily RBA interest rates.

BBSW 10 day history

DATE	1 MONTH	2 MONTH	3 MONTH	4 MONTH	5 MONTH	6 MONTH
15 MAY	3.8188	3.8596	3.9122	3.9890	4.0300	4.0900
14 MAY	3.8199	3.8522	3.8959	3.9529	4.0000	4.0413
11 MAY	3.8100	3.8400	3.8850	3.9342	3.9800	4.0200
10 MAY	3.8087	3.8400	3.8743	3.9200	3.9777	4.0117
09 MAY	3.8051	3.8449	3.8774	3.9334	3.9783	4.0265
08 MAY	3.8207	3.8545	3.8759	3.9336	3.9783	4.0237
07 MAY	3.8249	3.8500	3.8761	3.9305	3.9800	4.0200
04 MAY	3.8150	3.8400	3.8715	3.9018	3.9450	3.9918
03 MAY	3.8200	3.8433	3.8720	3.9246	3.9700	4.0117
02 MAY	3.8385	3.8450	3.8740	3.9400	3.9850	4.0456

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V DXY 1999 – 2023

The 2008 market crash as I stated a million times was not a crash. From the 2015 EUR/JPY study, Regression Statistics for 2007 clearly reveal EUR/USD and EUR/JPY traded to the massive tops and was on its way to a massive fall while USD/JPY was on its way to a massive rise. Not 1 pip for EUR/USD and EUR/PY longs existed as both traded to extreme tops while USD/JPY traded to extreme bottoms. USD/JPY at extreme bottoms is the same as saying DXY traded to extreme bottoms.

Second, note the EUR/USD and DXY relationship at 2005, 2006 and 2007. Year 2005 peaked at 1.0769, dropped to 1.0419 in 2006 and rose again in 2007 to 1.0779. Every time EUR/USD Vs DXY achieved a relationship at 1.0700, a giant drop happened the next year. Year 2014 saw 1.0800’s then dropped to 1.0529 for 2015.

The EUR/USD Vs DXY relationship appears to top at high 1.0600’s and 1.0700’s every time since 1999 then drops. The 2007 reading at 1.0700’s was possibly an early warning to a giant move in preparation. If Housing wasn’t reported as a travesty, years 2008 and 2009 would’ve traded as an orderly market.

For Housing, vew Jimmy Carter’s 1978 Community Reinvestment Act and compare it to Clinton 1995 Community Reinvestment Act. Clinton relaxed lending standards for House purchases so anyone with a paycheck and job a Mc Donalds could own a house. The loans for house purchases were worthless and nobody backed the loans. The result was a house crash to prices. The house crash was already ordered to happen as loans became more and more worthless.

Inside the EUR/USD V DXY numbers is the price positions. The true position of EUR/USD Vs DXY is EUR/USD as a higher exchange rate than DXY. This is the case for all European instruments Vs the United states and USD. DAX contains a higher price than Nasdaq, Brent oil has a higher price than WTI. Most importantly, Ester at 3.14 trades below Fed Funds at 5.08.

The natural historic positions of EUR/USD V DXY is EUR/USD trades at a 1.0000 while DXY trades 0 point. A factor inside the numbers is also the amount of times EUR/USD Vs DXY crossed over each other and switched positions. Since 2008, the switch happened 1 time in June 2022 at EUR/USD and DXY at 1.0500’s. The result was 1000 pip move as EUR/USD traded to 0.9500’s and DXY to 114.00’s.

Years 1999 to 2000 was also years of crossovers as EUR/USD crossed below DXY. Year 1999 began at 1.0557 in the EUR/USD V DXY relationship and dropped to 1.0176 in year 2000.

Overall since 1999, the comfortable and trade range for EUR/USD V DXY sits at 1.0700’s to high 1.0400’s to 1.0300 and 1.0500’s represents the middle position. Current 1.0500’s is viewed as DXY assuming the historic 0 point role and EUR/USD remains a 1 point currency.

The Historic Numbers

Years 2008 ad 2009 were recorded for January and December to observe the total effects to EUR/USD V DXY as 2008 and 2009 were outlier trade years.

1999 = 1.0557
2000 = 1.0176
2001 = 1.0201

2002 = 1.0406
2003 = 1.0278
2004 = 1.0609

2005 = 1.0769
2006 = 1.0419
2007 = 1.0779

2008 January = 1.1144
2008 December = 1.0654

2009 January 1.1007
2009 December = 1.1219

2010 = 1.1043
2011 = 1.0701
2012 = 1.0498

2013 = 1.0618
2014 = 1.0800
2015 = 1.0529

2016 = 1.0363
2017 = 1.0347
2018 = 1.0591

2019 = 1.0509
2020 = 1.0447
2021 = 1.0610

2022 = 1.0445
2023 = 1.0620

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD Vs DXY Levels

Note 1.1134 Vs DXY 99.84 as EUR/USD contains a vital break and the 50 year monthly average to DXY.

EUR/USD 1.0904 Vs DXY 102.14

EUR/USD 1.0932 Vs DXY 101.85

EUR/USD 1.0990 Vs DXY 101.27

EUR/USD 1.1134 Vs DXY 99.84

EUR/USD 1.1277 Vs DXY 98.40

EUR/USD 1.1421 Vs DXY 96.96

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: EUR/USD Vs DXY 2008 to 2023

The 1.0500 and 105.00 DXY line remains most vital. The 1.0500 line began from the 2008 market crash at 1.1185. From spot checks every January since 2008, the 1.1185 line drifted 600 pips lower to a very low degree of separation between EUR/USD and DXY. The current 1.0500 line held at 1.0700’s in 2011 then 1.0500 first appeared in 2012.

Year 2014 was an outlier as the EUR/USD Vs DXY separation achieved 1.0800 due to the ECB adoption of negative interest rates. Year 2015 rightsized the EUR/USD and DXY relationship back to 1.0500’s.
Since 2012 to exclude 2014, the EUR/USD V DXY relationship held constant at 1.0500’s except for years 2016 and 2017 when the degree of separation traded at 1.0300’s. EUR/USD bottomed at 1.0300 in 2016. After 2017, EUR/USD V DXY reverted to 1.0500’s yet again.

The context to 1.0500 refers to very low 1.0600’s such as 2013 at 1.0618 and 1.0610 in 2021 to 1.0496 in 2012 and 1.0447 in 2020. Remainder years held 1.0500’s as a constant such as 2015 at 1.0529, year 2018 at 1.0591 and year 2019 at 1.0509.

Since 2008, the EUR/USD Vs DXY relationship traded a strategy to meet at center stage and to obliterate the high and wide degree lines of separation. The explanation to the EUR/USD V DXY merger is found in the consolidation of interest rates between the FED and ECB.

The wide separation in 2014 at 1.0800’s was the result of the greatest distance between Fed rates and ECB. Since 2014, the ECB worked interest rate strategies from negative to positive while Fed rates remained on hold. The ECB today managed to blur the distinction between Fed and ECB rates by reducing the distance between Fed and ECB rates.

In 2019 for example, 3 month Euribor traded 0.69 vs Fed Funds at 0.15 or 54 points. In 2020, Euribor 3 month at 0.62 traded against Fed Funds at 1.55 or 93 points. Euribor 3 months trades in 2023 at 2.16 Vs Fed Funds at 5.08 or 2.92 points. Fed rates at 3 months trades 5.14 vs 3.32 Euribor at 3 months or 1.82 points. The distance question began in 2008 at ECB 4.27 Vs Fed at 2.00 or 227 basis points and a massive range.

For trade purposes, the greater the distance then the more substantial is the trend move. Despite the current short distance between DXY and EUR/USD, consolidation and range is seen rather than a breakout trend move from week to week. Since the September bottoms and tops, EUR/USD built in supports since 0.9500’s while DXY materialized resistance points above the dropping price at 114.00’s.

DXY trades from the 50 year monthly average line at 99.00’s to 105.00’s while EUR/USD trades from 1.0800’s to 1.1600’s.

The Week

DXY begins the week deeply overbought while oversold EUR/USD trades from vital 1.0827 to 1.0956 and 1.0956 to 1.1135. EUR/USD dropped from 1.1090’s and attempted the break 3 times over the past 12 trade days. EUR/USD traded 40 pips to the 1.1135 line and failed to break so to force EUR/USD lower.
GBP/USD traded 83 pips from the vital 1.2752 line. GBP/USD at high 1.2800’s and 1.2700’s was severely overbought for the past 3 weeks from the most vital 1.2300’s. GBP/USD now trades oversold and ranges from 1.2351 to 1.2602, 1.2602 to 1.2752 and 1.2752 to 1.2863.

GBP/USD target remains at 1.2735 as we wait for the break above 1.2602. EUR/USD targets 1.0964 and 1.10163.

GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY remains correlated to GBP/USD Vs GBP/JPY at +90% and EUR/USD to EUR/JPY at +89%. In FX trading, a cross pair to switch currency sides is a Realignment. JPY cross pairs Correlated to USD/JPY trades as USD currencies while current GBP/JPY = GBP/USD and EUR/JPY = EUR/USD.

GBP/JPY continues to drop from the vital line at 170.00’s and lower must cross below 166.70. EUR/JPY continues to drop from vital 149.00’s and targets a break at 146.08 to achieve long term targets at 143.90 and 139.00’s while GBP/JPY targets 164.00’s then 160.00’s.

Overbought USD/JPY targets 133.90 easily and overbought matches not only DXY but USD/CAD.
NZD/USD and AUD/USD trade deeply oversold. AUD/USD is always the better trade as AUD/USD trades more alongside GBP/USD rather than NZD/USD.

GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD both trade the same positions as last week at 1.6800’s and EUR/CAD 1.4700’s. Both GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD traded 100 pip total ranges last week. Nothing expected this week.

Best trades over next weeks are EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. From cross pairs best: GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD.

EM

Overbought USD/EM is about throwing a dart, pick a currency and short anywhere.

Massive overbought USD/CZK from 21.7515 targets 21.5524 then 21.2501.

USD/CNY targets 6.9372 then 6.9302. USD/DKK targets 6.8530 and 6.8231 from 6.8642. USD/HUF targets 336.65.

USD/MYR from 4.4790 on a break at 4.4674 targets 1.4592 and 4.4551. Easy trade. USD/RON targets 4.4755 from 4.5437.

USD/TRY targets 19.5266 then 19.3849 from 19.5783.

EUR/EM

EUR/PLN targets easily 4.5329 and 4.5630 from 4.5190. Easy trade.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD Vs DXY

The 1.0500 and 105.00 DXY line remains most vital. The 1.0500 line began from the 2008 market crash at 1.1185. From spot checks every January since 2008, the 1.1185 line drifted 600 pips lower to a very low degree of separation between EUR/USD and DXY. The current 1.0500 line held at 1.0700’s in 2011 then 1.0500 first appeared in 2012.

Year 2014 was an outlier as the EUR/USD Vs DXY separation achieved 1.0800 due to the ECB adoption of negative interest rates. Year 2015 rightsized the EUR/USD and DXY relationship back to 1.0500’s.

Since 2012 to exclude 2014, the EUR/USD V DXY relationship held constant at 1.0500’s except for years 2016 and 2017 when the degree of separation traded at 1.0300’s. After 2017, EUR/USD V DXY reverted to 1.0500’s yet again.

The context to 1.0500 refers to very low 1.0600’s such as 2013 at 1.0618 and 1.0610 in 2021 to 1.0496 in 2012 and 1.0447 in 2020. Remainder years held 1.0500’s as a constant such as 2015 at 1.0529, year 2018 at 1.0591 and year 2019 at 1.0509.

Since 2008, the EUR/USD Vs DXY relationship traded a strategy to meet at center stage and to obliterate the high and wide degree lines of separation.

GBP/USD day and 24 Hour Trade

The better trade is the 24 hour trade. GBP/USD range 1.2640 to 1.2466 Vs today 1.2640 to 1.2468. Profits were running since yesterday and total of about 100 pips. The 24 hour trade also favors our friends in Asia, Australia, New Zealand as well as Canada and the United States.

The object is multiple longs and shorts and to maximize the most profit pips for accounts and with the least effort.

GBP/USD

Long above 1.2568 to target 1.2662. Levels: 1.2586, 1.2604, 1.2622, 1.2640, 1.2658, 1.2676

Short 1.2662 to target 1.2640

Short below 1.2568 to target 1.2473. Levels: 1.2550, 1.2532, 1.2514, 1.2496, 1.2478, 1.2460

Long 1.2473 to target 1.2495

Target to Target: 1.2662 and 1.2473

Vs GBP/USD Day Trade today

GBP/USD

Long Short Line 1.2518

Most Important 1.2470 and 1.2509 Vs 1.2525, 1.2533, 1.2541, 1.2549, 1.2565, 1.2573, 1.2581

Bottom 1.2455 achieves by 1.2470 and 1.2486

Upper target 1.2581

Continuation Fail 1.2549

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD Day Trade

GBP/USD = 63

Long Short Line 1.2518

Most Important 1.2470 and 1.2509 Vs 1.2525, 1.2533, 1.2541, 1.2549, 1.2557, 1.2565, 1.2573, 1.2581

Bottom 1.2455 achieves by 1.2470 and 1.2486

Upper target 1.2581

Continuation Fail 1.2549

Yesterday

GBP/USD = 64

Long Short Line 1.2618

Most Important 1.2570 and 1.2609 Vs 1.2626, 1.2634, 1.2642, 1.2650, 1.2658, 1.2667, 1.2674, 1.2682

Bottom 1.2554 achieves by 1.2570 and 1.2586

Upper Target 1.2682

Continuation Fail 1.2650

Today Price Path at 63 pips follows perfectly to every 8 pip levels. Or an even price path and very good for today.

Yesterday at 64 pips. Note topside 1.2658 to 1.2667 or 9 pips, 1.2667 to 1.2674 or 7 pips, and back to 8 from 1.2674 to 1.2682

Uneven at 64.

Today at 63 most vital numbers: 1.2480, 1.2526 and 1.2552.

At the 4 am EST hour, GBP/USD traded 1.2539 to 1.2512 or 21 pips on the high side from 1.2518 and 6 pips below.

Day trades normally trade between 2 vital levels as we trade 63 pips inside 2 larger levels. Today GBP/USD 1.2455 to 1/.2581. The 2 vital levels: 1.2465 to 1.2479. GBP/USD is slightly off yet correct to the day trade.

GBP/USD 5 multiples today: 1.2455, 1.2470, 1.2525, 1.2565. Yesterday 1.2570, 1.2650

Kurtosis for all numbers: 1.75, upper .1.34, bottom 1.29. The marker is 1.50. Keep trading simple as this Kurtosis thing is not required. I throw it in the mix because days of old pre 2016, it assisted. Today it assist by view to long term targets.

DXY at 102.09. Overbought at 102.00’s last week, this week and next week. Informs GBP/USD longs is the only trade.

DXY 52

Long Short Line 102.01

Most Important 101.62 and 101.94 Vs 102.07, 102.14, 102.20, 102.27, 102.33, 102.40, 102.46, 102.53

Bottom 101.49 achieves by 101.62 and 101.75

Upper Target 102.53

Continuation fail 102.27

GBP/USD 1.2518 Vs DXY 102.01

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD Vs DXY

GBP/USD for the 7 hour trade remained below 1.2618. Automatic is known shorts apply but we also have day trades where GBP/USD 64 pips applies as an equal chance to rise or fall by 64. A more sophisticated view to understand and prove what equal chance means or 50 / 50 to longs and shorts is to apply Kurtosis.

The price path above 1.2618 factors Kurtosis at 1.68 and 1.54 to downside prices. On a scale of 0.0 to 3.0, the point at 1.5 is dead center. Equal chance is now mathematically perfect. But all price levels from bottom to top factors 2.06. Shorts reign under 2.06 as 2.06 is top heavy against 3.0.

When I say much has changed with 2016 interest rate changes, the changes were dramatic. Before 2016, Kurtosis truly applied to upside and downside prices so trade decisions were automatically known immediately.

To use Kurtosis correctly, the trade levels must be perfect or the readings will reveal wrong answers and trades will lose money.

Much easier and less time consuming is to trade GBP/USD Vs DXY.

Bottom and Upper targets: The beauty of a rare break above upper target or below Bottom is free money to trades as the price must by Mathematical certainty trade back to and below upper target and back to and above bottoms.

GBP/USD today pulled off a nasty move by break below 1.2554 at day trade end at 9.30 am and 10:00 am. But view DXY tops and the break is explained as DXY traded to tops.

GBP/USD 64

Long Short Line 1.2618

Most Important 1.2570 and 1.2609 Vs 1.2626, 1.2634, 1.2642, 1.2650, 1.2667, 1.2674, 1.2682

Bottom 1.2554 achieves by 1.2570 and 1.2586

Upper Target 1.2682

Continuation Fail 1.2650

DXY

Long short line 101.67

Most Important 101.28 and 101.60 Vs 101.73, 101.79, 101.85, 101.92, 102.05, 102.11, 102.18

Bottom 101.16 achieves by 101.28 and 101.41.

Upper target 102.18

Continuation fail 101.92.

GBP/USD Vs DXY

At the 9:30 point, DXY broke above 101.92 and traded to tops at 102.15 while GBP/USD broke bottom at 1.2554 at the 9:30 hour and traded to 1.2507.

At 10:00 am EST, the ECB inserts its own price and this price from 10 am dominates and a new trade must factor. Today’s GBP/USD at 10:00 am is 1.2613 and longs above. The trade is good for 1 hour then comes BOE at 11:00 am, Canada at 12 noon, and Fed at 12:30.

See why get out by 9 and 10:00 am as profits should ‘ve been earned already.

Brian Twomey

FX Next Week: EUR, GBP, USD/JPY, JPY Cross Pairs

GBP/USD yesterday traded to 1.2679 highs and 54 pips to the 1.2733 target. GBP/USD yesterday traded 79 pips and the vast majority traded for the CPI event. If ever irrelevance existed in markets, yesterday’s CPI was front and center as GBP/USD would’ve traded 70 ish pips regardless to CPI. Today’s BOE is just as irrelevant as CPI yesterday as GBP/USD trades another 70 ish pip day.

Monetary Policy and any central bank position is found inside the money supply vs interest rate relationship. Inside this relationship is found GDP and Inflation.

The advantage today is the same as yesterday for GBP/USD. GBP/USD yesterday was oversold at 1.2601 and longs were automatic. GBP/USD bottoms today in the vicinity of 1.2554 and 1.2570. Longs are the only way for GBP/USD to travel. The 1.2733 target is not expected to hit today.

Our trades are pre factored for multiple longs and shorts per currency and per financial instrument so BOE is much more irrelevant than CPI.

EUR/NZD achieved targets at 1.7296 and 1.7273 from 1.8000’s. The EUR/NZD trade is complete. GBP/NZD target at 1.9733 and 1.9680 traded to lows at 1.9789 and 56 pips to target from highs at 2.0300’s.

USD/JPY from Sunday: targets 133.65. USD/JPY traded to 133.88. Highs achieved 135.46. The USD/JPY strategy remains short only to target 128.27 and 122.00 longer term on a break of 126.00. Short strategies contain another 500 pips.

EUR/AUD traded to 1.6134 lows. EUR/AUD began the week at 1.6300’s. Watch for the EUR/AUD break below 1.6116 then first target at 1.6043 and much lower to 1.5900’s and 1.5800’s. EUR/AUD 11 trade days ago, reached 1.6785. Shorts from 1.6700’s runs +600 pips.

And waiting on GBP/AUD to break 1.8553. GBP/AUD correlations are running on all cylinders to match wide range currencies.

GBP/AUD Vs EUR/AUD +98%, GBP/AUD Vs EUR/NZD +89%, GBP/AUD Vs GBP/NZD +97%, GBP/AUD Vs GBP/USD +97%. GBP/AUD Vs AUD/USD -21%.

EUR/USD same old weekly story to relevant trade levels: 1.0834, 1.0958, 1.1137. Above 1.1137, EUR/USD hits a steel wall at 1.1193 and 1.1199. Informed weeks ago to EUR/USD impending dead range movements.

EUR/USD is also running on all cylinders to Correlations to EUR cross pairs. EUR/USD Vs EUR/CAD +99%, EUR/USD Vs EUR/NZD +96%, EUR/USD Vs EUR/AUD +97%, EUR/USD Vs EUR/JPY +87%.

EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY correlations to EUR/USD and GBP/USD are holding downside progress. Once EUR/JPY breaks 146.08 and GBP/JPY 166.50 then both will gain speed to downside progress and targets.

GBP/USD also contains the same weekly level story as 1.2348, 1.2602 and 1.2863. Upon GBP/USD’s target completion at 1.2733, the next big line is located at 1.2753. Once 1.2733 achieves destination then short quickly for extra pips.

Overall currency markets entered into tiny range markets. Next week will trade as this week and 2 weeks ago.

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD

How about 1.2618 is the same as yesterday. Extremely rare and the same exact trade.

Long Short Line 1.2618

Most Important 1.2570 and 1.2609 Vs 1.2626, 1.2634, 1.2642, 1.2650, 1.2667, 1.2674, 1.2682

Bottom 1.2554 achieves by 1.2570 and 1.2586

Upper Target 1.2682

Continuation Fail 1.2650

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD Day Trade

GBP/USD today will trade 64 pips or 128 total, same as yesterday. On most important levels, factor 9 and 48 pips as opposed to yesterday at 7 and 55 pips. This trade information was known yesterday at 4:00 pm EST.

The 24 hour trade has been running since yesterday. Today’s focus is the 7 1/2 hour trade and runs from 2:30 am EST to 10:00 am EST. Trades end at 10:00 am as nothing exists to trade. Option expiries hit at 10:am. This stops price movements rather than starts movements.

Just as CPI was irrelevant yesterday, BOE is just as irrelevant to GBP/USD. today. GBP/USD will trade at least 64 pips and maybe a few extra pips but its mandatory to trade at least 64.

The trade as all trades are known long in advance so the trader only job is click. click, profit and exit. Then re factor the next trade.

GBP/USD trade will post in about 20 minutes.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and GBP/AUD Correlations

Dear all, to subscribe maintains my presence to write and publish articles otherwise, no reason exists to bother anymore. I have tons and toms of information yet to write for this blog and this I want to complete. How about this.

Nobody cares to pay Fxstreet $40 per month for trades and its why you see all the flash deals. I told Francesc to raise your fees light years higher and I will make every trader filthy rich. See how that worked out. Trade services just don’t care either. As Ron White said, you can’t fix stupid.

The profit aspect to trading these days was a failure for most so money is earned in other ways such as market reporting and selling “stuff”., Ad revenue, trade courses.

I beat up Fibonacci but I have so so much info to verify my words. Option traders talk about Skew or the 3rd moment of a distribution. Skew is caught between Skew and the Standard Deviation. This is light years of miles between both. Well why not take the Z Score of the Skew to determine where is the bottom and top. Better yet is use Kurtosis as the 4th moment to determine overall bottoms.

How to determine true FX Volume as UBS publishes every Monday. Got that too and 20 years of success and failures to what works and what will lose money.

EUR/USD from last week and not written in the weekly.

EUR/USD Vs EUR/CAD Correlates +99%

EUR/USD Vs EUR/NZD +96%

EUR/USD Vs EUR/A UD +97%.

EUR/USD Vs EUR/JPY +87%.

Nothing will change for next week.

I was most interested in GBP/AUD to correlations.

GBP/AUD Vs EUR/AUD +98%

GBP/AUD Vs EUR/NZD +89%

GBP/AUD Vs GBP/NZD +97%

GBP/AUD Vs GBP/USD +97%.

GBP/AUD is fine.

Brian Twomey