EUR/NZD V NZD/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets


EUR/NZD break point for lower to target first 1.7047 then 1.6958 is located at 1.7127. A break lower at 1.7210 then comes the challenge to the 1.7127 break point. EUR/NZD rallies are targeted and meant to be sold especially at 1.7409 factored from the 1.7332 close.

The driver to lower EUR/NZD is deeply oversold NZD/USD. NZD/USD’s main break point for higher prices is located at 0.6852 and 0.6778. Higher above 0.6852 and the target location is 0.6963. NZD/USD break point at 0.6852 coincides to EUR/NZD at 1.7127 break and 1.7047 as first target. EUR/NZD at 1.6958 coincides to NZD/USD 0.6963. Over weeks and months,

Overall NZD/USD higher potential is quite astounding at 400 pips to the 0.6963 location but this is where NZD/USD targets and this is where its going. While EUR/NZD targets lower and sell rallies on a short only strategy, NZD/USD targets higher and buy drops on a long only strategy.

For the week, EUR/NZD targets lower at 1.7240 and caution at the main shortest break point at 1.7210. NZD/USD from its 0.6568 close targets first 0.6705 then 0.6778.


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Brian Twomey


USD/JPY: The Defensive Currency Pair


Not Complete


The USD/JPY question at the end of WW2 as USD/JPY was priced at 360.00 was how to sustain Japan and ensure viability to JPY. The answer was to price JPY to a correlation degree against the major pairs so to ensure JPY permanently remains a defensive currency pair. Most vital to defense and viability was place JPY as an implant to the majors. An insertion in the correct position ensures JPY survives and trades alongside major pairs but never becomes a leader currency pair. A few examples.
USD/CAD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF. Trading USD/JPY levels,ranges and targets are priced between USD/CHF and USD/CAD.

USD/CAD, USD/CHF, JPY Cross Pairs: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Since the volatility and 35 trades from the March / April period, prices for USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs settled except GBP/JPY to consolidate into smaller ranges for June and July. Reported miles ahead to price settlement in currency pair prices resulted in accurate warnings.

The clear losers in JPY cross pairs in order was NZD/JPY as March to July, prices roamed from 79.00 to 74.00 but June to July traded 200 pips from 74.00 to 76.

CAD/JPY traded 81.00 to 86.00 March to July then ranges restricted to 300 pips from 82.00 to 85.00 for June to July.
CHF/JPY as the perfect follower to USD/JPY traded 486 pips from March to July but traded 316 pips June to July from 113.26 to 110.10. Perfect tracker means USD/JPY closed at 111.45 while CHF/JPY closed at 111.63.

AUD/JPY traded 80.00 to 84.00 March to July but 380 pips June to July from 80.71 to 84.51.

The clear winners were EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY as EUR/JPY traded 890 pips from March to July at 124.62 to 133.52 but 528 pips June / July from 126.63 to 131.91. GBP/JPY traded 1000 pips from March to July 153 to 143 but 523 pips June / July from 149.24 to 144.01.

JPY cross pairs for deep consideration tor the week and BOJ Tuesday in order is GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY. GBP/JPY sits 300 pips within a 144.71 to 147.42 range and EUR/JPY within a 200 pips range from 129.08 to 130.45.

Stand clear of CAD/JPY as this pair contains deep range problems while AUD/JPY in 4 months ranges comfortably within its 82.00 to 84.00 intervals.

GBP/JPY range is located from 144.71 to the break point for higher at 147.42. Long on drops is the weekly strategy as GBP/JPY must trade to 146.15 and longer term target to 149.76. The 147.00’s won’t break easily this week as much resistance begins at 147.08, 147.36, 147.42 and 147.99. At 147.00’s represents the reversal zone to allow 147.00’s to break higher later,.

EUR/JPY Break point to target 131.00’s is located solidly at 130.45. EUR/JPY sits deeply oversold on massive supports from 128.08, 128.77, 128.56 and 129.40. A break of 130.45 targets 131.22 and 131.50’s. Above 131.50’s then short only strategy is the way forward. Overall, I wouldn’t marry a EUR/JPY trade but trade within the 128 to 130.00 range.

CHF/JPY is a fascinating currency pair and it should retain permanent adoption to any USD/JPY and JPY cross pair strategy alongside EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY.

CHF/JPY break point to target 112.20, 112.52 and later 113.48 is located at 112.01. The best target for the week on a break of 112.01 is 112.56. Below watch 110.59 as a good long to target again lower 112.00. Why long CHF/JPY is because USD/CHF is overbought.

USD/CHF Break point to target 0.9795, 0.9677 and 0.9661 is located at 0.9875. USD/CHF is driven lower by massive overbought from 0.9795 and 0.9677. Sell strategy is the way forward especially below 1.0128.

USD/CAD break point to target 1.2977, 1.2918 and 1.2858 is located at 1.3033. Above 1.3033, range becomes 1.3051 to 1.3173. USD/CAD remains 4 weeks later, a sell only strategy for the eventual break of 1.3033 and target to lower 1.2800’s.


Brian Twomey


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FX Currency Pair Associations Part 2


CAD/CHF 0.7633

AUD/USD 0.7373

AUD/CHF 0.7356 Normally CAD/CHF runs with NZD/CHF


EUR/JPY 129.46

GBP/JPY 145.38, Outliers especially to AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY and NZD/JPY


NZD/JPY 75.23

AUD/JPY 81.98

CAD/JPY 85.02


USD/CHF 0.9945

AUD/CAD 0.9637, SNB Peg, AUD/CAD = Risk Pair


USD/CHF 0.9945

EUR/GBP 0.8843, USD Pairs, Different Prices


Brian Twomey

FX Currency Pair Associations


USD/CAD 1.3058

GBP/USD 1.3087

GBP/CHF 1.3056    Same Pairs, Same Prices, SNB Peg


CHF/JPY 111.45

USD/JPY 111.18 Same Pairs, Same price, SNB Peg


EUR/USD 1.1625

EUR/CHF 1.1597 Same Pairs, Same Price, SNB Peg


NZD/CAD 0.8843

EUR/GBP 0.8882 Same Pair, Same Price


CAD/JPY 85.07

AUD/JPY 81.98 Same pair, Different Price, Price normally runs together


EUR/AUD 1.5765

EUR/CAD 1.5193 Same Pair, Different Price, price normally runs together


GBP/CAD 1.7104

EUR/NZD 1.7179 Same Pair, Same Price

GBP/AUD 1.7748, Normally Same Pair, Different price


NZD/CHF 0.6750

NZD/USD 0.6765 Same Pair, Same Price


AUD/CHF 0.7356

AUD/USD 0.7373 Same Pair, Same Price


AUD/CAD 0.9631

NZD/CAD 0.8843, Same Pair, Normally Price Runs Together


AUD/NZD 1.0896 and GBP/NZD 1.9340  are Outlier Currency Pairs and lack associations, currently


Brian Twomey





GDP: Levels, Ranges, Targets

US GDP consensus forecast at 2.2 is extraordinarily light in terms of overall GDP averages spread over a 10 year period. Every average from 1 to 10 years sits dead on the floor and deeply oversold. The potential for a 3% and lower 4.0% GDP is easily achievable if not Friday then within reach of the next release.

The range of the overall averages begins at 1.90 and 1.98 to 2.65. The 2.2 forecast is located at the 1 year average and this location alone warns of a higher GDP. Typically, consensus predictions are seen when GDP is forecast from the 4 and 5 year averages. We’ve seen this many times before against prior written forecasts to NFP’s.

Targets range from 2.68 and 2.77 to 4.03 and 4.09. Why the wide variation is due to oversold averages and targets are points where the distribution of averages must align. This means targets must fulfill destinations and 4.0% is on the way.

The first realistic targets are located at 2.68, 2.77, 3.06 and 3.13. Note 2.68 as the first target surpasses the longest 2.65 average. A forecast above 2.65 then the averages will rise and GDP will later result in higher forecasts.

Last quarter, USD Dollar GDP increased a whopping 4.2% or $200 billion as overall Nominal GDP stands at $19.96 trillion. Overall Nominal GDP represents a nation’s wealth. What assist a far higher GDP over next quarters are Corporate profits and corporate profits are skyrocketing.

Overall, GDP is forecast higher than 2.2% to near 3.0%.


Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY, CAD, GBP, AUD, NZD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Week 3 of Statistical nightmares in cross pairs, year 46 from the 1972 free float and 2 years since central banks reorganized national interest rates, comes the question, how is the health of currency market prices.

Seen in current year 46 is traditional last 12 1/2 year operations as happened everytime in market last periods since the 1600’s: questionable economic experiments, crazy politics, uncertain price movements, crazy volatility, no trends and movements based on the latest daily words from central banks and political leaders.

Last period markets practice defense mechansisms to fight against the inevitable market period end to begin the next 50 year cycle. The next 12 1/2 period cycle traditionally experiences wonderful prosperity, normal markets and certain trends. The uncertain question is will markets transition into the new period as was the case in 1972 and 1944 Bretton Woods or by a market crash.

Politically as Presidents are creatures of the times for which we live, Trump I view as a transition president to right the wrongs from past decade presidencies as much as Harding, Coolidge and Hoover were transitional presidents to right the wrongs from Wilson and the Progressive Movements.

Rather than control the exchange rate directly as was past central bank practice, reorganize then Fix interest rates to small ranges contained the indirect effect to exchange rate control with the added benefit to skyrocket QE, money supplies. The reality to the past 2 year interest rate experiment is money supplies, interest and exchange rates are completely distorted and mis Correlated to actual normalized levels.

All central banks became masters of this confidence game, especially the ECB and explains EUR/USD’s 2 month range from 1.1500’s to 1.1700 but also reveals EUR cross pairs are most problematic in the G10 space because G10 nations are interest rate based as opposed to Repo Rates in EM markets. But further to the ECB’s innate ability to control its interest rates.

Cross pairs became the victims to the new interest rate schemes as they find themselves stuck against deep range problems. The usual suspects remain EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP and added is EUR/CHF. EUR/CAD is a traditional neutral and non wide ranging currency pair but seen is an incredible move must occur in order for EUR/CAD to normalize. EUR/GBP may have to travel higher to normalize yet this sets up EUR/GBP to a long term short. This assumes for EUR/CAD and EUR/GBP normal trading.

While GBP/USD remains normal, wide ranging GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD persist as problem pairs. AUD/USD as normal, wider ranging AUD/CHF, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD remain problems. USD, JPY cross pairs and NZD retain normality to signify normal trading moves as opposed to big moves expected in problem pairs. Problem pair retention from usual suspects 3 weeks later further signifies not only the markets inability to normalize prices but the deep degree to how far are the distortions in money supplies, interest and exchange rates.

EUR/USD last week’s 1.1798 target achieved 1.1738 yet just shy of the 1.1800’s break point. This week’s target at 1.1794 falls just shy of the 1.1802 break point in order for a higher EUR to target 1.1870, 1.1957 and eventual 1.2088.
As reported over many weeks, the break at 1.1800’s has been resilient as this marks a higher EUR. Watch for failure and deep drop.

Lower to target 1.1540, EUR/USD must break 1.1694, 1.1681, 1.1645, 1.1623 then flood gates open to 1.1540. Any price below 1.1645 becomes open game to longs.

USD/JPY break point for lower to target 109.00’s is located at 110.78. The 109.00’s however represent not only many and massive supports but a break of 109.00’s targets easily 107.00’s and lower. Overall 109.00’s is the line in the sand. Above 11207 and 112.78 are sell points. Above 112.78 then a short only strategy is the only way to proceed.

GBP/USD from a short, medium and long term perspective is severely oversold. The break point for higher is located at 1.3360 to target 1.3440, 1.3521 and 1.3589. GBP/USD must first break 1.3322 then home free to 1.3360 and higher.

GBP shortest term must trade to 1.3214, 1.3221, 1.3247 then 1.3322 on a long only strategy.

AUD/USD How many weeks for AUD is severely oversold, break point at 0.7501 and long any drops to the eventual break. AUD severely under performs due to severe range problems inside 100 pip ranges. Under 0.7383 then long only while above 0.7501 then targets 0.7535, 0.7581, 0.7620 and eventual 0.7767.

Here’s USD/CAD close 1.3141 and GBP/USD 1.3126.

USD/CAD remains the favorite currency pair. USD/CAD break point for lower to target 1.2966, 1.2956, 1.2914, 1.2862 and 1.2778 is located at 1.3036. Above 1.3194 then short only becomes the strategy.

NZD/USD break point for higher to target 0.6991, 0.7004, 0.7045 and 0.7063 is located at 0.6910. NZD currently is deeply oversold and retains a huge potential for much higher. Higher must first break 0.6875 and 0.6901 then home free to upper decks. Massive supports exists below at 0.6775 and 0.6765. Any price below then longs is the way.


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Brian Twomey



USD/CNY Vs CNY/JPY: Levels, Ranges, Targets

From the USD/CNY April 1 post, a re visit and brief history to Yuan internationalization since 2005.
USD/CNY trade history as a result of the 2005 internationalization of the Yuan began July 2005 at 8.0351 then dropped over 1200 pips 3 years later to 6.7922 in July 2008. From July 2008 to May 2010, USD/CNY traded in dormant stages inside a 795 pip range from 6.8895 to 6.8090.

USD/CNY’s 789 pip downtrend resumed from June 2010 to June 2014 from 6.8305 to a 9 year bottom at 6.0406. An uptrend began from 6.0406 to June 2017 highs at 6.9622. USD/CNY trades at current roughly 6.7788 April 1.

USD/CNY since 2005 and in 144 traded months, 99 down months were seen as opposed to 45 up months.

Politically, China was granted Most Favored Trade status by the 1st George Bush Administration in 1991 – 1992 which means zero to low low tariff charges for China Imports and Most Favored Nation Status resumes to current day.

USD/CNY when last visited April 1 traded at 6.2874 and the forecast was to trade 997 pips higher to 6.3268, 6.3779 and 6.3871. USD/CNY since broke 6.3871 to trade at current 6.7788 and trades above the 5 and 10 year averages at 6.4234 and 6.4972.
USD/CNY’s range from most significant break points is located from 6.5572 to 6.8085, a 2513 pip range as USD/CNY is an extremely wide ranging currency pair both on a short and long term basis.

USD/CNY rose 6000 more pips higher than the 997 pip forecast in April from 6.3871. The reason is China is a Repo rate nation as opposed to most G10 as interest rate nations, big difference.

Best manner to view USD/CNY ranges short term is from 700, 800 and 1000 pips and this represents just the start to longer term USD/CNY forecasts.

From current 6.7788, USD/CNY is deeply overbought into the stratosphere and must trade lower. The first target below is located at 6.7001 and 6.6797 then 6.6358 and 6.6121. For far lower, USD/CNY must break 6.5572 and 6.5429. Until both breaks then USD/CNY must view as a correction inside a larger uptrend.

CNY/JPY from current 16.6740 is deeply oversold and must trade higher yet trade higher is representative of a correction inside a larger downtrend. The current range is supported below at 16.6326 and 16.4993 Vs above breal points at 16.8509 and 16.8983. A break of 16.8983 the next targets 16.9678 and 17.0324. The break at 16.8983 to travel higher corresponds to USD/CNY 6.5572.

Targets above for higher begins at 16.6901 and 16.7642 for roughly a 902 pip corrective move. On a longer term, multi month term, CNY/JPY has potential to trade to 17.0580.

As was stated many times, Fed Funds was and remains in extreme overbought into all 2016 and overbought extremes means 20 and 25 year monthly averages. Yet the Fed never halted it raise path. Significant moves will be seen in currency prices especially in the USD/CNY and CNY/JPY relationship upon a Fed halt to raises. A 5 year median Dot Plot hardly reveals the true position to current Fed Funds.


Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Last week’s currency markets reported the 2nd week to Statistical nightmares, Statistical anomalies where Majors in USD V Non USD are at Statistical Wars with respect to their own prices as well as war against other currency pairs.
Traditionally, if one currency pair is affected by uncertain statistical direction then all currency pair prices are affected as nations purposefully hold currency prices extremely close to its counterpart nations, especially in today’s central bank newly created currency price.

Statistical assessment over the past 2 weeks revealed itself as technical analysis displays this week Doli candles in GBP/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD.

Recall last week’s revelations to not only above cross pairs on the problem list but best price movements would derive from cross pairs. Why is answered by settlement in EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, USD/JPY and NZD/USD but unsettled prices to GBP/USD and AUD/USD. The further note is JPY cross pairs remain in good stead to problems except EUR/JPY.

While EUR/USD is desperately trying to rise, range tops in EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and problem pair EUR/CHF prevent EUR/USD further to break its vital point at 1.1819.

While GBP/USD price is far to low and must rise, problems derive from GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD.

As AUD/USD also desperately seeks to rise to break 0.7520, problems developed in AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD while AUD/CHF leaves the problem pair list.

Overall, currency prices contain range and alignment dilemmas and the origin is located from exorbitantly high interest rates in all nations.

The RBA and Lowe confirms wholesale interest rates are far to high. Such a development derives from the Fed as all central banks price national interest rates from the Fed and it begins with the RBNZ then feeds to all central banks. To high by my assessment and common to all central banks is about 40ish basis points and quite staggering by today’s standards.

EUR/USD targets this week 1.1798 on breaks of 1.1700, 1.1715 and 1.1729. Vital break at 1.1819 targets higher levels at 1.1916, 1.1972 and eventual 1.2088. Below targets 1.1545, 1.1410 and 1.1401 on breaks of 1.1680 and 1.1631. EUR/USD strategy remains longer term in long only mode as averages are rising alongside higher prices.

USD/JPY current massive overbought and multi year range top at 112.82 targets lower to 111.11, 109.64 and 109.42. Target at 109.00’s achieves destinations only on a break of 110.27. The 110.00’s and 109.00’s however formed many and massive supports from 110.73, 110.54, 110.40 and 110.32.

USD/JPY gained roughly 200 pips per month since the 104.63 bottoms in March and now the 112.82 range top is upon JPY. Short only is the strategy over the longer term as USD/JPY contains every ability to travel lower to 108.00’s and 107.00’s.

GBP/USD ranged last week 252 pips from 1.3360 to 1.3108 lows and its vital break point for higher to 1.3500’s, 1.3600’s and 1.3800’s is located at 1.3412. GBP/USD targets this week 1.3313 and a must break point in order to challenge 1.3412. Any price below 1.3220 is open to longs on a long only strategy as GBP targets far higher prices over time.

AUD/USD break point is located at 0.7520 and targets upon a break higher 0.7566, 0.7634 and 0.7773 longer term. AUD/USD’s previous multi week target at 0.7500’s was prevented by a corrective rise in EUR/AUD to 1.5900’s from the 1.5200 lows in June. Current EUR/AUD target at 1.5500’s and lower places AUD/USD to its current 0.7520 break point.

USD/CAD again remains most favored because its a pure and market oriented currency pair. Neither the BOC nor Fed holds USD/CAD from its wide movements.

A break at 1.3106 and 1.3039 allows CAD a run to its vital point for lower at 1.3014 to target 1.2972, 1.2956, 1.2905 and 1.2858. USD/CAD trades at multi year range tops and the commitment to a lower CAD on a short only strategy not only remains but holds for many weeks to come.

Problem pair break points .

EUR/CHF is not only overbought but watch the break point at 1.1652.

GBP/CAD Do or Die is located at 1.7450.

GBP/NZD current overbought and break point is located at 1.9359.

GBP/AUD Do or Die at 1.7835 from the close at 1.7829.

AUD/CAD Watch 0.9784 from the close at 0.9765.

AUD/NZD severely overbought from its 1.0970 close requires a break at 1.0855 for much lower prices.

CAD/CHF from 0.7611 closed exactly on its 100 day average and its break point is located at 0.7578 to target lower prices.


Brian Twomey


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EUR/CAD V GBP/AUD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

On April 11 when last EUR/CAD was visited, the trade strategy was sell 1.5900 to target 1.5500’s then 1.5300’s. The warning was 1.4900’s would trade on a break of 1.5300’s. Severely overbought EUR/CAD from April 11 traded to 1.4900’s at the end of May.
From the May lows at 1.4900’s, EUR/CAD traded to 1.5500’s and now sits deeply overbought at lower 1.5400’s. EUR/CAD is heading right back to 1.4942 and 1.4905.

On the way, EUR/CAD must break 1.5374, 1.5314, 1.5080 and 1.5068 then home free to 1.4900’s.

The multi week strategy as was the trade status for EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD is sell any and all rallies and trade down to 1.4900’s. Any priice above 1.5433 becomes an added bonus. If Poloz at the BOC offers Wednesday a skyrocket EUR/CAD then a further benefit is again added.

GBP/AUD as was last addressed April 8 and traded at 1.8300’s stood just below resistance at 1.8696. The target then was 1.8200’s and 1.7900’s on a further break of 1.8127. GBP/AUD traded to 1.7399 by end June.

Current GBP/AUD at 1.7700’s remains a sell rally strategy as long as price remains below 1.8658 and 1.8665. At 1.7700’s, bottoms are located at 1.7442 and 1.7394.

Higher to target 1.8168 and 1.8270 must break 1.7757, 1.7826, 1.7856, 1.7919 and 1.8030. Most vital for higher as a shorter term strategy is located at 1.7826 to target 1.7900’s.

Overall, the more comfortable strategy is long from 1.7400’s and 1.7300’s to target 1.7700’s and 1.7826. GBP/AUD from last post remains on the problem currency pair list but the problem is uncertain direction as much resistance lies above and the Stats are clearly fighting upside V downside moves.

The clear strategy is found in short EUR/AUD as opposed to GBP/AUD.


Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY, AUD, GBP, CAD: levels, Ranges, Targets

Currency Markets this week retain 2nd week of Statistical nightmares, Statistical anomalies where Majors in USD V Non USD are at Statistical Wars with respect to their own prices as well as war against other currency pairs. USD/CAD 1.3400 and USD/JPY 110.90’s great examples. War means pertinent Statistics lack uniformity to higher / lower but the condition is temporary and offers trade opportunities and insights to types of markets that will trade as the market rightsizes prices. The key is understanding.

Current Stat war is causing much grief to cross pairs as evident by high / low price noise. Cross pair prices settled March / April and allowed USD V Non to perform their movement tasks. Problem pair range noise means its time again for cross pairs to move once more as USD V Non become settled. Afterall, its been 3 months. Currency pair trade selection again is most vital as problem range pairs developed within the mix over the past 2 weeks.

The derivation to Statistical lack of consistency is caused by the Fed’s raise 3 weeks ago as prices then were knocked off intended price paths only to begin again. EUR/USD 3 weeks ago at 1.1720 contained an 1.1812 target but was knocked lower to 1.1500’s by the Fed’s raise. USD/CAD traded to 1.3400’s on a 1.2900’s target. GBP/USD traded 1.3000’s on a 1.3300 target.
If ever an opportunity existed to demonstrate Statistical Price Paths, its found in the past 3 weeks as target prices must fill intended obligations to then settle. From 1.1500’s, EUR/USD so far traded 1.1767, GBP/USD achieved 1.3290 and USD/CAD traded to 1.3076 lows. A Statistical Price Path offered and consummately offers greater opportunities.

Here’s the pairs to watch / trade for best moves, EUR/CHF, GBP/CHF, AUD/CHF and the commonality is CHF.

EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD and AUD/CAD against commonality to CAD. EUR/CAD is significantly out of sync. Watch Poloz this week closely.

GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD. Overall AUD/NZD is a horrible currency pair while recall in March the advice to not trade GBP/NZD as it was caught in a 1.9200 to 1.9500 range without clear trade signals to the 150 pip trade criteria.


EUR/GBP remains and seems will retain status as problem for time immemorial and is a pair to not trade.

EUR/USD break point for higher /lower is located at 1.1807 to then target higher at 1.1862, 1.1925, 1.1932, 1.1977 and eventual 1.2087.

EUR/USD below main breaks are well supported at 1.1702, 1.1677, 1.1635 and 1.1545. Long only remains EUR/USD strategy.

USD/JPY’s higher /lower break point is located at 109.92 and lower is the objective to 109.22. USD/JPY must first break 110.47, 110.23 and 110.05. USD/JPY traded an 85 pip range from 111.13 to 110.28 and advice last week to refrain from trade in USD/JPY was correct. USD/JPY will continue to under perform.

USD/CAD break point is located at 1.3019 and lower targets 1.2970, 1.2951, 1.2903 and 1.2844. Short only remains the overall strategy.

AUD/USD break Point for higher/ lower is located at 0.7517 to target 0.7577 and 0.7633. Long only strategy remains especially at 0.7389 and any price below to target the break at 0.7517.

GBP/USD break point for higher / lower is located at 1.3407 to target higher at 1.3522 and 1.3623. Lower is supported at 1.3242 and 1.3196. Again, long only strategy is the way as GBP heads much higher from currency levels.


Brian Twomey


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EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Recall the short EUR/AUD trade in March from 1.6100’s to 1.5500’s inside a 2 month time frame. EUR/AUD actually ended in June at 1.5200’s and the rise to current 1.5800’s is the result from the 1.5200 lows.

At current 1.5800’s, EUR/AUD targets again 1.5500’s but this time the target is located at 1.5549. Longest term, EUR/AUD contains every ability to travel back to 1.5300’s. Along the way to 1.5500’s, break points are located at 1.5778, 1.5722, 1.5703, 1.5628 and 1.5611.

The strategy over the next months is sell any and all price rises until 1.5500’s achieve its destination. Any price rises is a bonus and only adds to shorts. The only manner to handle EUR/AUD is a short only strategy as longs are literally impossible. The March mistake was allow EUR/AUD to trade on its own to the 1.5500 target for roughly 300 pips per month. A sell only daily / weekly strategy pays far more until the 1.5500 target achieves.

A EUR/AUD short then explains how AUD/USD achieves its 0.7500 targets short term and 0.7800’s over the longer term. A EUR/AUD rise severely contains AUD/USD and prevents an AUD move higher.

EUR/NZD contains serious range problems because its moving averages are all in bad shape and lacks decent uniformity. Yet all vital averages are far overbought.

The vital break points are located at 1.7174, 1.7142, 1.7089 and 1.7016 then the longer range target is located at 1.6848 and 1.6737. The first short target is located at 1.7142 from current low 1.7200’s.

Above break points are located at 1.7412 and 1.7407. The EUR/NZD strategy is the replica of EUR/AUD to sell any and all rallies over the longer term to target 1.7016 then 1.6800’s.

Other pairs contian range problems similar to EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD and those pairs include USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD and AUD/CAD. In days ahead, I will take a view and post the problem pairs.


Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

EUR/USD ranged 191 pips last week from previously mentioned 1.1720 to 1.1529 against the target price at 1.1806. EUR/USD closed Friday at 1.1681 and 1.1655 last week, a 26 pip difference.

GBP/USD ranged 240 pips last week from 1.3291 to 1.3051 against the target price at 1.3367 and 1.3387. GBP/USD closed Friday at 1.3203 and 1.3258 last week for a 55 pip difference.

USD/JPY ranged 155 pips last week from 109.37 to 110.92 against the target price at 109.15 and 108.99. USD/JPY closed Friday at 110.66 and 109.97 last week for a 69 pip difference.

USD/CAD ranged 250 pips last week from 1.3383 to 1.3133 against the target price at 1.2980. USD/CAD closed Friday at 1.3133 and 1.3260 last week for a 127 pip difference.

AUD/USD ranged 117 pips last week from 0.7324 to 0.7441 against the target price at 0.7550’s. AUD/USD closed Friday at 0.7402 and 0.7440 last week for a 38 pip difference.

USD/CHF included this week closed Friday at 0.9906.

Target Price explanation. Previous years target prices not only hit exactly by math standards but targets reached destinations by price alignments. The system served well its purpose but it lacked deeper price information. The current system’s refinement to price targets is far superior because it reveals much more to price information, price relationships, next targets, settled prices, price speed, price changes, continuation, ranges, short V Medium V Long term targets and the list is literally endless. Most importantly, the current target structure captures perfectly the contemporary rules under the new market composition instituted by central banks 2 years ago. Any questions, see March / April 35 trades and 4000 ish pips.

EUR/USD target this week is located at 1.1802 on a break of 1.1702 and 1.1712 against the break point at 1.1811. Tough area here as a long rejection candle is easily achievable. A break of 1.1811 then targets next 1.1936, 1.1992 and 1.2086. Below long points to a long only strategy are located at 1.1630, 1.1638 and 1.1545.

USD/JPY break point at current 109.74 hardly changed in 3 weeks. Last week’s target at 109.15 and 108.77 achieved 109.37 then bounced to 110.94 and 30 pips above 110.68 sell point.

Overbought USD/JPY from previous 3 month contention to EUR/USD and USD is now in a battle of Statistics against itself. Higher to 112 relieves price pressures but higher means more overbought. Lower price pressures relieves at 104.
Lower targets 109.96 and break of 109.74 targets 109.54, 109.24 and 109.09. Higher targets 111.95. Good strategy is leave USD/JPY to trade another day as the longer term short is slowly building and this meets agreement to EUR/USD much higher. Overall, USD/JPY averages are falling against a rising price as the longer term range is located from high 112.00’s to 99.00’s, a 1300 pip range. Previous 113.00’s are now gone. USD/JPY’s resolution won’t solve itself well.

GBP/USD. Higher for GBP must break 1.3428 to target 1.3555, 1.3565 and 1.3638 then on to 1.3800’s. Target this week on a long only strategy is located at 1.3367 and 1.3383. Below long points begin at 1.3285, 1.3251 and 1.3214. GBP/USD 1.4100’s many times previously mentioned as longest term target was confirmed last week by Goldman Sach’s call for GBP/USD 1.4100. What’s 1.4100 in a 3100 pip range from 1.3200’s to the Brexit fall at 1.6300’s.

AUD/USD now achieved deeply oversold yet again but this week reveals oversold across the board. Break point is located at 0.7533 to target 0.7600’s and 0.7700’s. Longer term target remains now 0.7783 and down 47 pips since March 0.7830. Target this week remains at 0.7550’s.

USD/CAD’s price in the last 3 weeks rose to 1.3400’s against stasis averages and as USD/JPY, USD/CAD enters its own statistical abnormalities. CAD is far overbought and must trade lower. The target over 3 weeks remains now 1.2943, 1.2911 and 1.2900, 1.2823 on a break of 1.3027 and 1.3014. The overall CAD trade resembles the March/ April AUD/NZD example. We held to target AUD/NZD against a profit but AUD/NZD dropped to the same degree as the profit. Never a loss however but terrible entry.

USD/CAD remains a short only strategy especially above 1.3010. Here’s 2 prices, 1.3133 and 1.3203. Guess the pairs.

USD/CHF break point for lower at 0.9847 targets a mass of many and sustaining supports at 0.9700’s. Current supports at 0.9700’s was reported in March / April and hasn’t changed in 3 months. Higher to target 1.0130 is located at 1.0064. Look for shorts above 0.9939. From a daily perspective, USD/CHF sits at dead neutral and is the smarter position in relation to USD/CAD and USD/JPY.

Overall currency markets are within roughly 100 pips to break points/targets and the problem pairs as price drivers derives from USD.


Brian Twomey


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EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

From Last week’s written line – up: EUR/USD traded 167 pips from 1.1507 to 1.1674, GBP/USD 210 pips from 1.3105 to 1.3315, USD/JPY 120 pips from 110.75 to 109.55, AUD/USD 94 pips from 0.7348 to 0.7442, USD/CAD 222 pips from 1.3159 to 1.3381 and GBP/CAD 349 pips from 1.7423 to 1.7772.

EUR/USD vs common currency market themes at 50 to 150 pips traded last week 167 pips and 262 in the prior week, USD/CAD traded 222 last week vs 252 pips 2 weeks ago, AUD/USD traded last week 94 pips Vs 183 pips 2 weeks ago. GBP traded 210 pips last week VS 234 pips 2 weeks ago.

EUR/USD again remains a long only strategy as the weekly target is now 1.1806. Higher to target 1.1940 and 1.1942 must break 1.1824. To 1.1806 target must break 1.1645, 1.1660, 1.1671, 1.1683 then to 1.1710, 1.1747, 1.1763 and 1.1784. Watch for longs below 1.1635.

USD/JPY target this week is located at 109.15 and 108.99 on a break of 109.74. Watch the cluster of supports at 109.64, 109.62 and 109.60 to clear then on to 108.99. Above sell points 110.02, 110.21, 110.32 and 110.68.

GBP/USD. As the Fed now holds interest rates at 2.00 and BOE at 0.50, the BOE by osmosis will be forced to raise and a raise means GBP far higher. Last week’s mention to GBP’s off kilter relationship to its pertinent averages was the explanation to the violent upswing to the 6 -3 BOE decision.

Higher for GBP must break 1.3464 to target 1.3593 and 1.3652 then on to 1.3800’s. Target this week on a long only strategy is located at 1.3367 and 1.3383. Below long points begin at 1.3270, 1.3262 and 1.3253.

AUD/USD break point for higher is located at 0.7565 to target 0.7600’s and 0.7700’s. A break at 0.7532 is required to then lead the way to a break at 0.7565. Target remains the same as last week, 0.7550’s and longs below 0.7450’s. AUD maintains the same relationship to its averages as does GBP. The averages remain severely off kilter. Both AUD and GBP remain deeply oversold.

USD/CAD’s deeply overbought condition maintains its break point for lower at 1.2980. Lower for CAD must break 1.3166, 1.3024 and 1.3006 to target and break 1.2980 then on to 1.2800’s and 1.2700’s. CAD remains a short only strategy against a massive potential for a deeply lower price. CAD like its AUD and GBP counterparts holds an off kilter relationship to its averages.

Notice GBP, AUD and CAD and the off kilter relationships to its averages. NZD can assume it contains the same off relationship to its averages and the reason is derived from AUD, NZD and CAD are past members of the great British Empire. When each left the British Empire, all adopted the same UK money market system against slight twists to distinguish each nation as its own separate entity. In all, not much changed over the centuries. AUD, GBP and NZD averages are equally oversold while CAD maintains equal overbought.

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Brian Twomey


EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Currency market common themes at 50 and 150 pip ranges experienced slight violations particularly in EUR pairs. Ranges were reported last week against the caveat to many currency pair prices approached and/ or traded at significant high/ low break points therefore subject to long rejection candles. EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and GBP/USD approached 1.1895, 1.3544 and 130.00’s then dropped while USD/CAD and USD/JPY rose from break points at 1.2950 and 109.29.

Among the 10 currency pairs posted last week EUR/USD, EUR/AUD and EUR/JPY were clear winners as each dropped 262 pips, 263 and 264 to violate the upper 150 range by roughy 100 pips. EUR/USD dropped from 1.1809 to 1.1547, EUR/AUD 1.5694 to 1.5431 and EUR/JPY 130.33 to 127.69.

USD/CAD was next to violate at 252 pips as CAD jumped from 1.2950 to 1.3202 followed by GBP/USD’s 237 pip drop from 1.3449 to 1.3212. GBP/JPY and USD/JPY each roamed 164 and 161 pips from 147.90 to 146.32 and 109.28 to 110.89.

AUD/USD and AUD/JPY each ranged 183 and 188 pips from 0.7622 to 0.7439 and 84.15 to 82.27. AUD/JPY since March and reported many times previously, held 84.00 to 82.00’s against slight violations at 81.00 and 85.00’s but always managed to retain its 82.00 to 84.00 space.

CAD/JPY held 149 pips from 85.20 to 83.71. Reported last week in CAD/JPY was the continued struggle to USD/CAD as this relationship contains serious problems. Note the perfection in EUR/USD V EUR/JPY and AUD/USD to AUD/JPY.

USD/CAD must travel miles lower and CAD/JPY higher in order for this relationship to rectify. The same problem relationship is seen in GBP/USD to GBP/JPY but GBP/JPY is clearly explained by an uncertain and clueless USD/JPY since its March rise from 105.00’s.

Into week 2 is again seen a USD correction lower and non USD as in EUR/USD and GBP higher. The clear winners higher this week are seen easily in EUR and GBP and USD/CAD lower while USD/JPY will remain the slow / dead mover.

EUR/USD higher to again target 1.1812 must break 1.1660, 1.1669 then 1.1718 and 1.1724. Caution is warranted at 1.1724 as much daylight exists from 1.1724 to 1.1803 then the 1.1812 target. Above 1.1724, EUR/USD could easily see a 1.1724 to 1.1784 range. EUR/USD break point to target 1.1946, 1.1952 and longer term 1.2038 and 1.2085 is located at 1.1881.

EUR/USD below break is located at 1.1383 and is under no threat this week to travel lower. EUR this week retains a long only strategy.

GBP/USD deeply oversold like its EUR/USD counterpart, targets easily this week 1.3349 then 1.3449 ahead of its vital break point at 1.3518 to target 1.3600’s and 1.3800’s. GBP drops fails to maintain its relationship with current averages therefore GBP’s overall ability to skyrocket and travel significantly higher over time remains a great potential. GBP’s best comfort zone is located from 1.3518 to 1.3800’s and this area coincides to EUR/USD 1.1800 to 1.2000’s.

AUD/USD break point is located at 0.7623 to travel higher to 0.7700’s. This week’s targets are located at 0.7555, 0.7573 and 0.7589. At 0.7589 must break to target 0.7623 and 0.7700’s. AUD as well is deeply oversold short and long term as AUD contains every ability to target 0.7800’s over time.

GBP/CAD is well supported at 1.7438 and 1.7429 and target this week is located at 1.7699 upon breaks at 1.7568 and 1.7597.

USD/CADis not only overbought but a clear favorite for shorts to target longer term again 1.2776 on breaks at 1.2894, 1.2883 and 1.2865. First break points below are located at 1.3010, 1.3001, 1.2981 and 1.2930. For the week acceptable targets are located at 1.2981 and 1.2930. Recall USD/CAD last week bounced from current lower 1.2900 supports.

USD/JPY Lower targets 109.01 and 108.88 on breaks at 109.76, 109.64. First breaks lower are located at 110.50, 110.27, 110.19 then on to 109.64 and lower. Above 110.50 targets 111.87 and 111.96 and far more closer to USD/JPY historic range tops at 113.00’s. As stated previously, USD/JPY contains great potential to travel significantly lower to 107.00’s on a break of 109.64 and 108.88.


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Brian Twomey


EUR/USD V USD/JPY and JPY Crosses: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The currency market common theme this week is again focused on major break points inside the same 50 to 150 ranges for a vast majority of currency pairs. The prime example is EUR/USD break point at 1.1895 Vs USD/JPY at 109.41. The respective failure at break points held USD/JPY inside a 100 pip range last week from 109.20 to 110.25 and 181 pips for EUR/USD from 1.1657 to 1.1838.

Last week’s reported dark area in USD/JPY from 109.45 to 110.01 held for the most part and this week the same area exists from 109.45 to 110.04. Rarely seen Dark areas represent untouchable zones until a price break is seen.

The second theme as USD/CAD, USD/JPY correction lower, EUR/USD and non USD pairs higher remains this week’s price path. This week will clearly decide as the internals inside current prices contains easily ability for EUR/USD to break 1.1895 and seen inside USD/JPY is a good prospect to literally drop like a rock. What contains a massive USD/JPY fall however is seen in EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY higher against a range bound scenario in CAD/JPY and AUD/JPY. Clearly a volatile week is here and USD/JPY as the prime driver.

USD/JPY from the 109.55 close ranges from 109.42 to 109.69. Below most vital 109.42 targets remain from last week at 108.77 and 108.73 then possibly next week to further target 107.87. Above 109.69, sell points to target 109.42 and below to 108.77 is located at 110.04, 110.07, 110.22 and 110.44. Overall, any price above 109.45 becomes open for shorts and sell rally is the proper strategy as longs are impossible considerations.

EUR/USD must break 1.1873 and 1.1895 to target 1.1920 and 1.1954 then eventual 1.2058 and 1.2084. EUR/USD would then easily range from 1.2058 and 1.2054 to 1.2304 and 1.2357 as 1.2300’s represents breaks point to see a 1.2500 and 1.2700 EUR.
Below inside a EUR/USD weekly buy drop strategy, long points are located at 1.1730, 1.1722 and a solid line at 1.1679.
GP/JPY main break point to target 150.14 is located at 148.17. To achieve 150.14, GBP/JPY must clear 148.33, 148.55 and 148.93. The clear higher or lower point is located at 147.23.

Below inside a weekly buy drop strategy, long points are located at 146.68 and 146.65 then 145.47 and 145.42. Lower 145.00’s are not expected however as GBP/JPY will trade extremely bullish all week.

EUR/JPY as stated last week, break point now 130.13 leads to the top and many many points at 131.00’s. Target at 129.57 achieves by breaks at 129.15. Main break point all week to decide higher/ lower is located at 128.52. Below 128.01 and 127.61 provides excellent long point for an all week buy drop strategy. Not a terrific choice in EUR/JPY as GBP/JPY provides a clearer price path and wider ranges.

EUR/AUD break point above 1.5567 targets 1.5675 and 1.5697. Any price above 1.5536, all week provides excellent sell points as the overall top in EUR/AUD is located at 1.5700’s. Longs are again impossible and short only strategy is the only way. Note the word “ANY”. Look for shorts to 1.5417.

AUD/JPY break point is located at 83.60 from the 83.25 close. A break at 83.60 targets 84.46. Long drops is located at 82.80 and 82.06. To target a break at 83.60 then AUD/JPY must clear 83.16. Not a terrific currency choice in AUD/JPY as range conditions persist from 82.00’s to 84.00’s since March. AUD/JPY qualifies as well as EUR/GBP, CAD/CHF in the lower end 50 ish pip ranges as not much is seen to movements to AUD/JPY.

AUD/USD break point now 0.7641 and a rising line by 17 pips higher from last week’s 0.7624. Long points and only strategy is located at 0.7580, 0.7577 and 0.7554. AUD in on a long only strategy. Break at 0.7641 contains best shot provided 0.7619 breaks higher. Overall target is 0.7677, 0.7703 and 0.7805 in weeks ahead.

GBP/USD break point at 1.3544 targets 1.3611 and 1.3689. In weeks ahead on a 1.3544 break targets 1.3700’s, 1.3800’s and 1.4100’s. GBP for the week is heading higher and buy drops at 1.3378, 1.3327 and 1.3277 yet doubtful to be seen. Long only is the only way forward.

USD/CAD. Same deal as last week, short only strategy and short “Any” price above 1.2998. CAD break point at 1.2848 targets 1.2760 and 1.2715 on a break below and 1.2576 in weeks ahead.

CAD/JPY. Same pair, same Stats, and same tired range conditions as AUD/JPY. Reason for similarities is Australia and Canada share many of the same structures inside respective money markets systems.

Break point is located at 85.17 to target 85.63, 85.89, 85.98 and 86.03. CAD/JPY will struggle all week as USD/CAD decides its fate below 1.2848. Buy drops is located at 84.51, 84.30 and 84.11. As USD/CAD breaks 1.2848 then far higher to target 86.27 and higher will go CAD/JPY.

Again, note roughly 150 pip range and also note levels, ranges and targets are always exact week after week and year after year. Failure for major break point to break higher/lower will result in long rejection candles. Caution at vital break points.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The common theme to currency market prices reported last week at 75 to 200 pip ranges held as EUR/USD for one example was knocked off its upward trajectory by Monday’s Italian elections and dived 138 pips to 1.1510 only to regain its correct weekly path to rise 214 pips to 1.1724.

The second theme as USD pairs lower to correct while non USD pairs higher also held last week and explains why EUR as one example rose 214 pips from its Italian lows. It explains USD/CAD’s 200 ish pip drop to 1.2800’s on Thursday’s BOC day and USD/JPY’s 171 pip dive from 109.80 to 108.11.

Currency markets this week will trade 50 and 150 ranges as the USD correction lower and non USD higher theme holds into its second week. Why the drop to 50 and 150 pip ranges is due because most vital break points to significant averages becomes the focus for a vast majority of currency pairs. Currency prices either break or long rejection candles are seen. Clearly, an interesting week is ahead.

The favorite pair again this week is clearly USD/CAD as overbought CAD desperately wishes to travel higher but CAD averages are moving against higher prices. EUR/USD and AUD/USD will trade strongly as both pairs move higher followed by GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. USD/JPY and EUR/JPY trade again as usual in their same old tired ways while EUR/AUD as inclusion this week is seen as nothing special. Encouraging to the EUR/USD Vs USD/JPY relationship is early beginnings to the first price divergence seen since Feb 23rd.

EUR/USD. To understand EUR/USD is to view its overall price trajectories in 300 pip ranges as EUR/USD begins from upper 1.1200’s and 1.1300’s to 1.1600’s then 1.1600’s to 1.1900. Above 1.1900 goes to 1.2200 and 1.2300 then 1.2300 to 1.2500 and 1.2700. Long and short term Hedges now established.

EUR/USD last week targets were located at 1.1788 and 1.1824 and EUR/USD traded to 1.1727. This week targets are located at 1.1704 and 1.1817. EUR/USD most vital break point for significantly higher is located 1.1896. A break higher then targets 1.2080’s and lower 1.2100’s. Vital supports and good long points are located at 1.1634, 1.1670 and 1.1687. EUR/USD to the extreme is located at 1.1572. Long only strategy applies to EUR/USD for the week.

USD/JPY break point is located at 109.30 and targets 108.57 on a further break below 109.46. USD/JPY’s problem this week is a dark area developed from 109.46 to 110.01 and in between is 109.73. Above 110.01 exists 110.27 and 110.42. Overall, USD/JPY is a short only strategy to target 108.57. At 109.30 and 109.73 establishes entry. Longer term, a deeper USD correction could see USD/JPY easily trade to 107.76 and 107.25.

USD/CAD break point to target 1.2740 and longer term 1.2571 is located at overbought 1.2832. The problem at 1.2832 is its well protected by 1.2876, 1.2854, 1.2845 then 1.2803. An off sync economic announcement maybe required to push CAD lower to break 1.2832. Lower to challenge 1.2832 is located at 1.2922, 1.2909 then CAD is clear to 1.2800’s. Above, last week’s 1.3003 is now located at 1.2996. As was the strategy since March, short only is the only way forward.

GBP/USD. Last week’s target at 1.3437 traded to 1.3362 and like EUR/USD fell a few pips shy as Monday’s Italian election debacle knocked GBP a few pips off course. This week’s taget is a few pips higher than last week at 1.3462. GBP’s break point for higher to target 1.3700 and 1.3800’s is located at 1.3558. Only points below and good long entries if seen are located at 1.3277 and 1.3232. GBP averages are rising and this is a good indication for a much higher GBP over coming weeks.

GBP/JPY main break point is located at 148.16 and a break above targets 150.19. Targets this week are located at 147.23 and 147.69. GBP/JPY to 147.23 should be an easy ride and overall GBP/JPY as well as GBP/USD contain astounding potential for miles higher. Only points below and good long points if seen are 146.58 and 145.61.

EUR/JPY should view as 122.00 to 125.00 then 125.00 to 128.00 and 128.00 to 131.00’s. The main break point to target 131.00’s is located at 130.01. EUR/JPY will find severe resistance at 130.51, 130.84 and 130.95.

Higher for EUR/JPY last week as mentioned would entail a struggle as 128.59 had to break to target 129.68. EUR/JPY traded to 128.52 then dived on Italian election concerns.Target this week is 129.44 on breaks of 128.01, 128.53, 128.72 then 129.11. Most important in this series is 128.53 to travel to target.

AUD/USD break point is located at 0.7624 to target 0.7691 and 0.7711. AUD must break first 0.7613 then home free to 0.7624 and higher. Last week AUD traded to 0.7592 then retreated to 0.7514 and closed at 0.7568. AUD was expected to break 0.7624 last week and this week contains a far better shot. Long only for the week is the only strategy as AUD will trade against a strongly bullish tone. Economic news this week contains Inflation, GBP, Retail Sales and RBA Tuesday. Long any drops to outside price events will offer great opportunities.

EUR/AUD break point is located at 1.5603. EUR/AUD will struggle at 1.5541, 1.5571 and good quick shorts if seen to target 1.5454. Overall nothing exciting exists in EUR/AUD. The import to 1.5603 break higher would see AUD/USD much lower and also to erase any gains seen above 0.7624. The preferred strategy is long any drops from lower 1.5300’s then target 1.5454.


Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, G10, Maintenance Periods: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Month end before QE and central bank control and management to exchange rates contained a significant meaning but today its a throw away term and lacks any importance.

Month end once meant a re calculation and adjustment to trading positions and this re calculation was an imperative because exchange rates moved 3, 4 and 500 pips on any given trading day. A huge difference existed from month to month and trading positions required adjustments because of the divergence between trend Vs Range pips. Trend pips were far more vital than range pips and a re calculation accounted for trend pip movements.

Today changed as ranges are more vital than trend pips.

USD/JPY for example moved barely 200 pips per month since Feb or recall the 2 month hold to EUR/AUD as it barely moved 300 pips per month. Take any pair within the 28 majors and monthly movements require practically zero adjustments but it depends on overall movements.

Month end was derived from bank Maintenance Periods as banks over past decades were responsible and traded the vast majority of exchange rates for the purpose to balance overall deposits.

Month End is counted by 35 days inside world banks Maintenance Periods and split as two 14 period days or 28 days in a given month and a total of 35 for those troubled banks who sought extensions to meet balance requirements. A bank in deficit at Maintenance Period end had to purchase cash while surplus banks sold cash. Month end is actually 28 and 35 days. Much more to Maintenance Periods such as interest paid to reserves but most simple is offered.

USD/CAD achieved 1.2864 Weekly target from yesterday’s BOC. Break point is now 1.2820 then hello 1.2500’s.

NZD/USD achieved weekly target at 0.6999. Break point for higher is now located at 0.7040.

USD/JPY achieved 108.62 target and break point for higher is now 109.31. At 109.47 should now eliminate as a break point.

AUD/USD break point is now 0.7626 and 0.7590 achieved so far. Target today is 0.7606 and a challenge to 0.7626 remains viable.

EUR/USD Weekly target at 1.1788 and 1.1824 achieved 1.1724 so far. Break point for higher is now located at 1.1914.

GBP/USD Weekly target at 1.3437 achieved 1.3347 so far. Break point for higher is located at 1.3573.

EUR/JPY break point at 128.59 was a challenge as mentioned and seen Monday when EUR/JPY traded 128.54 then dropped. Target remains 129.68 and 129.48 on a break of 128.59.

GBP/JPY remains over oversold and Weekly target remains 147.97 and traded so far 145.30.

Overall GBP/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/USD are within about 100 pips to target and 200 pips thereabouts for GBP/JPY which is in line.


Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, Sonia, G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

1 month after the BOE’s formal launch to its interest rate redesign, the system operates as normal however the great 1997 Sonia invention contains slight difference in meaning, understanding and application. It holds its power but under a slightly different context. Only those, especially bankers, with understanding to the prior interest rate system contains full comprehension to the new system.

Advantage goes to banks and derivative traders as they long prepared for this day but note banks and interest rate trader concern is an interest rate trade rather than a GBP trade. Both are miles apart to meaning, understanding and application. It was an imperative to understand the old system and relationship to GBP in order to apply GBP to the new standards.
What changed overall was time in relation to price as price lacks the same speed as it once held. Retail traders however still remain subjected to the scrap pips leftover from the pro traders against their perfect price knowledge.

Further to questionable changes and BOE interest rate adjustment insight is what is the interest rate Correlation to the money supply. As GBP and the BOE are far more closer to AUD and RBA than EUR, the assumption is Correlations are out of sync as it is for AUD.

Daily trades remain absolutely perfect as we prepared along with the bankers for GBP changes and applied the exact same methodologies.

EUR/USD. Recall the current 1.1550’s was the result of the 1.2358 break and EUR now traveled 800 pips. At 1.2358 is now 1.2312 and EUR is deeply oversold from this point. Today’s further break point to challenge again 1.2300’s is located at 1.1922 and as well is deeply oversold.

Oversold in context means the only 2 points remaining for EUR downside is located at 1.1369 and 1.1267. No such point exist for a 1.10 EUR presently and 1.10 won’t come into view if ever for many months. Again, we’re experiencing Banks turned retail traders against impossible to achieve forecasts and they cover the gambit, AUD 0.7100, EUR/GBP 0.9200, 0.9300, USD/JPY 117 in 3 months while 1 month already passed. Again, smart and skilled traders don’t write and why should they bother against today’s clutter and this includes me. Post to post from today’s writers looks like the same old tired thing,

Recall the USD/CAD trade from March at 1.3100’s and drop to 1.2500’s. USD/CAD today is located again 3 months later at its highs. Today’s short USD/CAD is a repeat to March as the highs are here again. The difference today is a 200 ish pip trade against March 600. USD/CAD’s break point today is 1.2819 and CAD remains severely overbought. Any price above 1.3002 is a sell only trade as USD/CAD’s overall strategy is short.

EUR/GBP also remains the gift that keeps on giving as highs are sold inside an overall short only strategy.

USD/JPY achieved 108.62 and traded to 108.11. USD/JPY’s break point is today’s 109.36. Above 109.47 is a problem for USD/JPY as its proper place is below 108.62.

EUR/JPY what remains to the downside is 123.00’s and 122.00’s and against a 10 year average at 125.24 while upsides exist at 130 and 131.00’s.

NZD/CAD held reported 0.8965 and bounced from 0.8971 to break 0.9006 and traded to 0.9026. NZD/CAD traded this week 55 pips. NZD/CAD at 0.9009 is an outlier number as it now trades in Skitzo land from 0.9009 to 0.9129 and 0.9141. NZD/CAD’s current position is quite dangerous and its not a currency pair to rush to trade until it leaves it skitzo qualities.



Brian Twomey


EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The common theme in currency markets in the past 2 weeks was a standard 50 to 150 pip ranges against the caveat breakouts and big moves were on the way to expand trading ranges.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD held while GBP, EUR, USD/JPY and USD/CAD broke respective common theme ranges for 200 and 250 pips. JPY cross pairs traveled 200 and 400 pips. GBP/CAD as usual was the big winner in the Other Currency/CAD space at 270 pips while EUR/CAD traded 230 pips. Same scenario in GBP/CHF at 270 Vs EUR/CHF at 230.

The common theme among currency pairs rises this week to 75 and 200 pip ranges. Seen this week is USD drops vs corrections higher in Non USD pairs EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD as non USD achieved deeply oversold status. Despite correction, breakouts to respective break points will remain elusive as higher/ lower moves represent relief to oversold/ overbought conditions.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD will again fall into big winner status as well as deeply oversold JPY cross pairs in GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY. Deeply overbought USD/CAD will result in significant moves while USD/JPY will trade inside its normal 75 to 150 pip range. Overall currency markets functions as normal and outside danger to trade erratically is non existent.

As written weeks ago, all cross pairs became settled to respective prices to include JPY crosses and the USD V Non would lead the next market moves. This assessment was not only correct but USD V Non remains in full control to lead the cross pairs. Recall, March, April and part of May was strictly cross pair led while USD V Non held small ranges.

NZD/CAD was included this week because it wasn’t traded among the 28 majors during March, April and May trades. NZD/CHF, AUD/CHF and AUD/CAD remain holdouts to include in future posts.

EUR/USD targets this week are located at 1.1788 and 1.1824. Recall last week, EUR/USD achieved 1.1829 perfectly then dropped. Until EUR/USD breaks 1.1956 then moves higher must view as corrections to its current deeply oversold status. EUR/USD extremes below are located at 1.1625 and 1.1588. All week, EUR is in buy dip mode until targets achieve destinations. Target destination is expected early in the week and has potential to trade as AUD last week.

USD/JPY. Recall last week target at 109.46 achieved as USD/JPY had to trade to at least 109.46. Its did then continued its drop to 108.97 for a 241 pip weekly move from 111.38. This week USD/JPY target must trade to 108.62. Higher and not expected must break 109.47, 109.54 and 109.94. Most vital in this series is 109.54. USD/JPY sell rally is the way.

USD/CAD at 1.2974 trades at the upper top of its range and is skyrocket overbought. 3 weeks ago, USD/CAD top was located at 1.3038 while today the top is located at 1.3002. The averages are falling against CAD. The weekly target is located at 1.2864 for a 111 pip move. At 1.2864 is located just above vital point at 1.2833. Overall, CAD’s point at 1.2792 must break to target 1.2500’s. A break at 1.2833 then good shot to see CAD 1.2792 break lower.

GBP/USD is not only deeply oversold but GBP trades at the bottom portion of its range. The overall range is wide because its GBP’s normal wide ranges and trades from 1.3221 and 1.3285 to 1.3871. The must break point for significantly higher to target 1.3800’s and later 1.4100’s is located at 1.3614 and 1.3630. GBP/USD contains potential to trade easily to 1.3800’s. Target this week is located at 1.3437 for a 143 pip move and again inside the 150 ish common theme.

AUD/USD break point is located at 0.7625 and last week AUD traded to 0.7608 then dropped. At 0.7625 is expected to break to target next 0.7711, 0.7797 and later to 0.7808. AUD remains weeks later deeply oversold.

NZD/USD Break point is located at 0.7032 and 0.7041 to target 0.7132 and 0.7189. Overall, NZD as well remains deeply oversold and the weekly target is located at 0.6931 and 0.6999. Above 0.6999 then challenges 0.7041 break point.

GBP/JPY astronomical oversold targets this week 147.97 and if 149.09 breaks higher then further target becomes 150.36.

EUR/JPY targets this week 129.68 and this target is quite challenging as EUR/JPY must break 128.59 and 129.48. Despite deeply oversold, higher for EUR/JPY will remain a challenge as the averages work against EUR/JPY. The overall break point to confront top range point at 131.00’s is located at 130.94. A move higher in EUR/JPY as in GBP/JPY represents a correction to oversold.

NZD/CAD is firmly supported at 0.8593 and the break point for higher is located at 0.9006 from its 0.8971 close. A break at 0.9006 targets 0.9145 and 0.9165 and later 0.9189. Despite the 0.9006 break point, this level is not ready to break this week. The break point to decide higher or lower this week is located at 0.8965. Overall, no thrills exist in NZD/CAD.


Brian Twomey