18 Currency Pair Trade Rankings Review

To 18 currency pair trade rankings, forecasts and commentary. As written Sunday, AUD/USD best pair to trade. AUD/USD traded 163 pips and NZD/USD slight beat by 166 pips.


Stated EUR/USD was next. EUR/USD traded 82 pips this week. However the week is still very young and a long way to go.


EUR/AUD was 3rd in the rankings and traded 242 pips and beat GBP/AUD’s 220 pips by 22 pips.
USD/JPY oversold and traded 80 pips and EUR/USD 82.


NZD/JPY best JPY cross pair and traded 202 pips. Then CAD/JPY and AUD/JPY. CAD/JPY traded 207 pips to AUD/JPY 195. CAD/JPY beat NZD/JPY by 5 pips and AUD/JPY was correct as 3rd position. EUR/JPY was last to rankings and traded 132 pips. Correct.


GBP/USD range problems and traded 157 pips. GBP/CHF range problems and traded 132 pips. Normally stand clear to range problem currency pairs as they don’t perform as expected. GBP/USD and GBP/CHF good examples. However GBP/CHF last 3 weeks performed extremely well and never exclude this pair for trade consideration. And its the best pair in the CHF line up.


As written, GBP/CAD beats GBP/AUD. GBP/CAD traded 214 pips to GBP/AUD 220. Wrong by 6 pips.


Don’t bother trading AUD/CAD. Correct. AUD/CAD traded 67 pips. GBP/CAD is the big mover in the CAD ross pair space.


As written, NZD/CHF 1st then AUD/CHF but AUD/CHF may be the better trade. AUD/CHF traded 137 pips and NZD/CHF 138. Wrong, both were good trades.


As written, both EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD great trades. Correct.


EUR/NZD 291 pips this week and GBP/NZD 270. As written, EUR/NZD better trade. Correct.
Problem pair USD/CHF traded lower 68 pips then 66 pips higher. Stand clear USD/CHF.


NZD/USD as 2nd traded 166 pips and AUD/USD as 3rd traded 163 pips.


USD/CAD overbought traded 254 pips and beat CAD/JPY 207. USD/CAD must always beat CAD/JPY.


CAD/CHF massive oversold traded 142 pips.


USD/CAD, CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF perfect and operated on all cylinders. USD/CAD must beat its trade partners.


EUR/CAD not listed in the weekly trades, traded 226 pips Vs GBP/CAD 214.


Weekly Trades
Enter Sunday, exit Friday unless targets achieve sooner. Yesterday to start Asia trade, AUD/USD at 0.7274 and NZD/USD 0.6967. On Wednesday, what could be done with both pairs? Nothing and no trade existed. Best is a quick day trade for 20 and 30 pips as no such concept exist to weekly trades on Wednesday as 2 profit days were missed and the currency pairs were well on their way to targets.

Brian Twomey

DXY Vs S&P’s Day Trade

DXY closed 92.83. Daily range 47 pips. What is 92.83?


Its 0.9283 divide 2 = 4641 to be exact or 46 pips.


Then 0.4641 divide 2 = 0.2320 or 23 pips then 11 pips and 5 pips. Each divisional point represents a support or resistance.


So DXY 47 pips = 92.83 or 0.9283 + 47 = 9330 or 93.30.
DXY subtract 47 pips = 92.36 or 0.9236.


S&P’s Cash, must use Cash. Closed 4496.19. and daily range 22.49 points.


Bottom 4473.70 and long. Top 4518.68 and short.
DXY bottoms at 92.36 as S&P’s top at 4518.68


Or DXY tops at 93.30 as S+P bottoms at 4473.
Double trade, double profits.


Breakdown 22.49 for support and resistance points. They change so must factor everyday. 22.49 becomes 11.24, then 5.62.


See DXY and S&P support and resistance are the exact same.


This is how to trade DXY with American stock markets and any financial instrument.
DXY and currencies are not only vital to financial markets but just as important for forecasts to any financial instrument.


EUR/USD divide 2
GBP/USD divide 2,
USD/CHF divide 2.


Then match to stock market or any financial instrument ranges and many trades exist and never lose.


Simple if one knows what they are are doing,

Brian Twomey

GBP/AUD V AUD/GBP, Day 2

AUD/GBP main point to trade higher is located at 0.5360. AUD/GBP trades current 0.5283. GBP/AUD main point to trade lower is located at 1.8664. GBP/AUD trades above at 1.8926.
Both GBP/AUD and AUD/GBP trade at separate levels to major high / low points. Same predicament for AUD/EUR and EUR/AUD as EUR/AUD trades above while AUD/EUR trades below. Same predicament for every currency pair on the planet.


GBP/AUD daily range is located at 96 pips or X 2 then 192 pips. Ever see GBP/AUD trade 192 pips on 1 trade day. May never see it again. AUD/GBP daily range is located at 27 pips or X 2 = 54 pips. may never see AUD/GBP trade 54 pips ever again.


Overnight, AUD/GBP traded from 0.5289 to 0.5277 or 12 pips while GBP/AUD traded from 1.8907 to 1.8950 or 43 pips. Id AUD/GBP traded a wider range then GBP/AUD would’ve traded a wider range.


At 1.8907 was yesterday’s GBP/AUD bottom price at AUD/GBP 0.5289. GBP/AUD dropped while AUD/GBP rose. AUD/GBP is the containment to movement to GBP/AUD as USD/EUR contains EUR/USD.


GBP/AUD and AUD/GBP will always trade within its stated day trade orbit. Rare day to see a currency price trade outside its respective ranges. All information is known in advance so never a need for stops, charts and all the rest.


GBP/AUD range yesterday was 1.8907 to 1.9045. The potential was 1.8905 to 1.9097.
Ay yesterday’s 10:00 Am hour GBP/AUD dropped to 1.8885. The 10 am hour of trade works on a different set of prices. Yesterday day trade operated in the 2:30 to 100:00 day trade time. This is the primo and only time to trade. At 10:00 am, Traders are shooting in the dark for entries and targets.


GBP/AUD bottom yesterday was located at 1.8905 while AUD/GBP was located at 1.8907. A 2 pips differential. A 2 pip differential is built into the system of opposite currencies. EUR/USD Vs USD/EUR contains a 2 pip difference, GBP/USD Vs USD/GBP 2 pips, JPY/USD and USD/JPY 2 pips. This 2 pips is created by central banks.


GBP/AUD


AUD/GBP informs today GBP/AUD ranges are located at 1.9043 to 1.8900 and 1.8850.
What changed since 24 hours ago, 55 pips difference. GBP/AUD top is dropping while the bottom also drops but much more than yesterday. This informs short tops as GBP/AUD is heading much lower.

Brian Twomey

AUD/GBP Vs GBP/AUD

At the center of day and 24 hour trades are opposite currency pairs. In today’s example GBP/AUD Vs AUD/GBP. AUD/GBP is termed a legacy currency because before March 1983 when AUD achieved free float status, AUD/GBP was fixed for 150 years to GBP and London FX markets.


The setup as shown many times covers every financial instrument on the planet as the set up is writtem in mathematical stone as intoduced by central bankers. Anyone can set this up and trade perfectly and profitably day and 24 hour trades.


AUD/GBP


Most Important 0.5235, 0.5241, 0.5244 0.5248, and 0.5251 Vs 0.5265, 0.5268, 0.5271, 0.5275, 0.5282, 0.5285 and 0.5289


All perfectly factored levels are covered for today.


Bottom. 0.5235 achieves by 0.5248 and 0.5241


Upper target 0.5289
Continuation fail 0.5275


5 most vital levels for today 0.5235, 0.5244, 0.5251, 0.5275 and 0.5289. This translates to GBP/AUD as 1.9102, 1.9069, 1.9043, 1.8957, 1.8907.


As AUD/GBP rises then GBP/AUD trades lower.


GBP/AUD


Same exact set up


Most Important 1.8905, 1.8929, 1.8935, 1.8953, 1.8960 Vs 1.9013, 1.9025, 1.9037, 1.9049, 1.9073, 1.9085 and 1.9097


All perfectly factored levels are covered for today. Any level mentioned not in the price path is wrong. Levels are moor and major. The 5 most vital are major while the remainder are minor.


Bottom. 1.8905 achieves by 1.8929 and 1.8953


Upper target 1.9097
Continuation fail 1.9049


5 most vital levels: 1.8905, 1.8935, 1.8960, 1.9049 and 1.9097.


Translates to AUD/GBP as 0.5289, 0.5281, 0.5274, 0.5249 and 0.5236.


AS GBP/AUD rises then AUD/GBP drops.


The world of currency trading continues by EUR/USD Vs USD/AUD, GBP/USD Vs USD/GBP, EUR/JPY Vs JPY/EUR.


Never a stop, chart, and god forbid Fibs. Apply Fibonacci then lost is maximum potential to profit.

Brian Twomey

TWI’s, NZD/EM, AUD/EM, GBP/EM

Every 5 years, central banks complete reviews to Trade Weight Indices and annual reviews to include or eliminate currencies based on trade. Normally, the threshold is 1% trade to inclusion or elimination decisions based on annual reviews. What changes yearly are the weights in the index assigned to each currency. The 5 year overhaul is a complete revamp to a trade weight index so to change the base period by addition of 5 years and to include or eliminate certain currencies.


The BOE maintain 2 indices, a Broad and Narrow to include major and minor trade partners in line with the Fed’s Nominal and Other Trade Partner Index.


The trading methodology is a depreciating currency in the index such as AUD will trade higher as AUD dropped against its major trade partners. But that’s the old method. My way is view as many currencies against the main currency whether its in the index or not because it covers many more currencies not in the index.


Best index construction is Laspeyres and use equal weights rather than as assignment to weights based on major or minor trade partners. A better performance to the index will be seen with specifics to percent movements and eyeball view which currencies moved most or least.


The RBNZ Trade Weight index includes the major currencies and: KRW, CNY, MYR, IDR, THB, SGD, INR and PHP, Philippines Peso.


NZD/EM


NZD/CNY is oversold but not to any degree to immediately jump on a trade yet NZD against 11 currencies and many not in the RBNZ Trade weight index, is massively oversold to extremes. Not only is NZD/USD oversold against the majors but deeply oversold to EM currencies. This concept offers a broader view and many more trades while the TWI lacks to effective oversold and overbought readings.


NZD/CNY Watch 4.4969
NZD/CZK targets 14.9680
NZD/DKK targets 4.3908


NZD/HUF targets 207.86
NZD/ILS targets 2.2467
NZD/MYR targets 2.9337

NZD/PHP targets 34.85
NZD/PLN targets 2.6885
NZD/RON targets 2.9063


NZD/RUB targets 51.43
NZD/SGD targets 0.9455. Note similarities to NZD/CAD


NZD/ZAR Overbought targets 10.1776.


AUD/EM


AUD is also massively oversold to 15 currencies and many currencies not in the RBA’s TWI.
RBA currencies to TWI: CNY, KRW, SGD, INR, THB, MYR and IDR.


AUD/BRL oversold
AUD/CNY targets 4.7164
AUD/CZK targets 15.7638


AUD/DKK targets 4.6088
AUD/HRK targets 4.6443
AUD/HUF targets 218.13


AUD/KRW targets 848.2348
AUD/MXN no trade
AUD/MYR targets 5.0841


AUD/PLN targets 2.8316
AUD/RON targets 3.0514
AUD/RUB targets 54.51


AUD/SGD targets 0.9963 Note AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD


AUD/THB targets 24.06
AUD/TRY targets 6.1348.


GBP/EM


GBP/EM ad GBP/USD is oversold yet not to the degree of AUD and NZD.
GBP/CNY targets 8.9326
GBP/CZK targets 29.7901


GBP/DKK Short tops
GBP/HUF targets 411.7509
GBP/INR targets 102.3060


GBP/IDR targets 19820.9236
GBP/ILS targets 4.4534
GBP/RUB targets 101.9537


GBP/SGD targets 1.8664
GBP/ZAR targets 204959

Brian Twomey

18 Currency Pair Trade Rankings

Trade Rankings: EUR/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, NZD/JPY, CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, NZD/CHF, AUD/CHF


Due to the extreme wide divide between EUR/USD and USD and severe EUR, AUD, NZD, GBP oversold and USD overbought, all are first to overall trade rankings as easiest trades and most profits.


Currency market prices remain in crucial positions not only from proximity to 5, 10 and 15 year averages but ranges are severely compressed. AUD/USD for the 3rd week in a row qualifies as best followed by EUR/USD and EUR/AUD.


Problem currency prices this week includes GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, USD/CAD, EUR/NZD, USD/CHF and CHF/JPY. Problem currencies contain range problems.


Despite range problems, USD/CAD is deeply overbought and the 5 year average is close at 1.3076 and USD/CAD overbought matches to its oversold opposites, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.


USD/JPY is oversold and matches to oversold JPY cross pairs. NZD/JPY qualifies first among JPY cross pairs due to its oversold read followed by CAD/JPY and AUD/JPY and all better trades than EUR/JPY, despite oversold.


NZD/CHF qualifies against AUD/CHF due to oversold however AUD/CHF may easily qualify as the better trade for most movements and more profits. CAD/CHF is not traded weekly however CAD/CHF is massively oversold along with counterparts, AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF.


GBP


Trade Rankings: GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/JPY, GBP/NZD.


Despite range problems, GBP/USD and GBP/CHF qualify as 1st nd 2nd due to oversold, followed by overbought GBP/CAD and GBP/AUD. GBP/CAD beats GBP/AUD due to an easier trade and profits although GBP/AUD contains wide ranges this week along with its counterpart EUR/AUD. Both are great trades.


Nothing special to GBP/NZD as EUR/NZD should provide a better trade and profits.


G28 trade Strategy.


Due to extreme oversold and overbought, entries this week are meaningless. Only targets count. Any currency that traded higher will trade lower while any currency that traded lower will trade higher. Throw a dart at any currency and wherever it lands, take it long or short Sunday night.
Main driver to currency markets are USD and USD/EM as practically all USD/EM currencies are light years overbought. EUR/EM is mixed to overbought and oversold however many EUR/EM currencies are on the verge of big breaks to take EUR/EM higher.

USD/CHF is the usual exception as its price is overbought, contains range problems and isn’t worth anybody’s time or effort. far better trades exist. Watch EUR/GBP 0.8565.
Nothing special to AUD/CAD except slight oversold but AUD/CAD is not a mover currency and was never intended to move and therefore is never worth anybody’s time and effort. AUD/CAD’s purpose is to contain AUD/USD and AUD cross pairs. If AUD/CAD was a more volatile currency like GBP/CAD then AUD /USD would trade more like the volatility of GBP/USD and EUR/USD. Same principle to NZD/CAD and NZD/USD.


USD/EM


USD/BRL overbought, targets 5.3350
USD/CNY overbought, targets 6.4849
USD/CZK overbought


USD/DKK, Overbought, targets 6.3332
USD/HRK Overbought, targets 6.3835
USD/HUF Watch 298.82


USD/ILS Watch 1,2455
USD/ISK Overbought, targets 125.98
USD/KRW overbought, targets 1152.69


USD/MXN overbought, targets 20.06
USD/MYR Neutral
USD/PLN overbought, targets 3.8936


USD/RON overbought, targets 4.1821
USD/RUB overbought targets 73.83
USD/SGD Overbought, targets 1.3548


USD/TRY Oversold, targets 8.6096
USD/ZAR Overbought, targets 14.8733


Best trades, short USD/ZAR and Long EUR/ZAR, short USD/PLN and long EUR/PLN


EUR/EM


EUR/BRL oversold
EUR/CNY Oversold
EUR/HUF oversold, targets 351.80


EUR/INR oversold, targets 87.5460
EUR/KRW overbought, targets 1363.04


EUR/MXN Watch 23.75
EUR/MYR Neutral


EUR/PLN overbought, targets 4.9255
EUR/ZAR overbought, targets 17.6125 from 17.9038.

Brian Twomey

Realignment: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY

Currently, 22 of 28 currency pairs are driven strictly by USD as the price dictator. The 2nd side of an exchange rate moves the 2 sided price inside the exchange rate. This concept has been active since the BOE began in 1694 and Scotland central bank in 1695.


Currency prices are periodic as periods can last for as much as 10 to 12 1/2 years. Inside a 50 year period factors as 12 1/ 2 years per each of 4 quadrants. The modern day since the 1920’s, 12 1/2 years has held steady and on track while 1910’s to 1920’s, periods of 12 1/2 years were severely shortened possibly due to WW1 and /or the changing Gold standards.


Markets are currently in the 4th quadrant or 49th year from the 1972 free float.


The current period is USD dominated since the 2008 crash as risk is not favored. EUR/USD for example since 2014 dropped from `1.3900’s and since 2011 or 10 years dropped from 1.4900’s.


While 12 1/2 years defines 4 quadrant periods, range years exist within 12 years where currency prices don’t move. The magic number is 10 and the 10 year average because it defines an Alignment or Realignment and accounts for dead range years within 12 1/2 year quadrants.


EUR/USD and EUR/JPY from 1998 to 2008 traded above 10 year averages while USD/JPY traded below. EUR/USD and EUR/JPY was correctly aligned as EUR/USD dominated its cross pair by Correlation standards while USD/JPY was the odd currency and failed to correlate to EUR/JPY. Explains how EUR/USD traded to 1.4900’s, EUR/JPY to 169.00’s and USD/JPY to 98.00’s.

This is the defined risk favored market and the first currency in the exchange rate to drive and dictate market prices.


EUR/USD in 2014 broke below its 10 year average at 1.3200’s while USD/JPY and EUR/JPY traded above 10 year averages and EUR/USD became the odd currency. This situation not only favors non risk markets and USD but the 2nd side of the currency pair dictates price moves.


As currency prices edge closer to breaks at 5, 10 and 15 year averages, the question do we see a realignment. A realignment is a market switch to risk favored where EUR/USD will again own and correlate to EUR/JPY and USD/JPY will serve as odd currency. In past years, the 10 year average served as the guide to total realignment.


A Realignment is again defined as a switch to cross pairs as the first side of the exchasnge rate will drive and dictate prices instead of today’s non risk, USD driven and 2nd side to the exchange rate. A Realignmnet is a switch of cross pairs and correlation ownership.


EUR/USD broke its 10 year average at 1.1900s, USD/JPY trades above at 104.00 while question mark EUR/JPY faces the 5 year at 126.18, the 10 year at 124.85 and 15 year at 127.10. Does EUR/JPY break below so EUR/USD owns EUR/JPY or remains above to USD/JPY correlation ownership and a continuation of a USD favored market and 2nd exchange rate as dominator.


if EUR/USD owns EUR/JPY then EUR/USD will skyrocket higher along with EUR/JPY and USD/JPY will drop many miles lower.


Markets are in a tough and questionable period as the question to Realignment looms. Big moves are upon us either way the realignment question materializes.


While EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY served as today’s examples, choose any 3 currency pairs and 10 year averages to define any 3 favored currency pairs to determine a Realignment or switch to cross pair ownership or a possible on hold situation.

EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY served as examples as 3 most widely traded currency pairs by Triennial Surveys.


An on hold situation may result from 3 chosen currency pairs as non market leader currencies. Once a Realignment begins then all currencies fall in line and follow much the same when EUR/USD broke above its 5 year average at 1.1400’s.

Brian Twomey

Non Normal Currency Markets: 5, 10, 15 Year Averages

Last year, EUR/USD began a short period to lead currency prices by the first currency to break above its 5 year average at 1.1400’s. Then remaining 27 currency pairs adjusted to trade above own respective 5 and 10 year averages. Markets then offered oversold traded to oversold and overbought traded to overbought.


Prior to the EUR/USD break at the 5 year average, markets traded perfectly normal for 2018 and 2019 as all currency pairs traded below 5 year averages. Markets were normal and uniform and all currency pairs were in sync with each other.


The only exception was GBP/USD to trade straight to 1.1900’s without any corrections. It was the only pair off kilter and the reason was the rare day to trade the 9 year currency cycle. GBP/USD had to complete the 9 year currency cycle at 1.1900’s.


Markets for the past few months traded again perfectly normal. However now we are in a period again when 5, 10 and 15 year averages either broke or threatens to break. This explains current markets trading oversold to more oversold and overbought prices traded to more overbought.


Non normal are markets trading oversold to more oversold and overbought to more overbought. We don’t see this often yet it happens, rarely over years but yet it occurs.


Early warning to oversold to oversold and overbought are not only the 5, 10 and 15 year levels but problems to exist inside the price by measure of Noise and problems to ranges. When wide range currency pairs expeience noise problems, then all know, something exists to a market change to trade non normal markets.


Wide range EM currencies also offer an insight. Vast majority of NZD/EM currencies this week were overbought while CAD/EM were oversold and GBP/EM were fairly neutral. Deeply overbought USD/CAD traded higher, deeply oversold NZD/USD traded lower and nothing special to GBP/USD.


Deeply oversold AUD/USD just broke its 5 year average at 0.7322 and explains oversold to more oversold and no correction in sight. NZD/USD at massive oversold just broke its 5 year average at 0.6856. Explains massive overbought to associated pairs to AUD and NZD.


By memory as I haven’t viewed the question to how long can this 5, 10 and 15 year average period last. Easily weeks to recall. But it will depend on the speed to accomplish the intended breaks. And if the actual breaksa occur.


Market entered a highly dangerous period with an unknown duration. Until or unless breaks are seen then trade strategy remains to short USD and long non USD such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD and NZD.


For USD, best trade as usual is USD/CAD. Canada is the last holdout to normal markets and normal interest rates. The remainder nations entered control of interest rates to murder currency price movements. DXY is no different as Fed interest rates turned into a massive joke played upon markets and movements as rates don’t move.


Why to stand clear USD/JPY due to BOJ and Fed rates. Both are turning USD/JPY into a bad joke to movements. Same for USD/CHF by the SNB and FED.


Anyone truly interested, view the SNB’s Debt Register Claims and overniight Tom Next rates. Viewed will see again a massive joke to USD/CHF movements. A long article was written on fxstreet and my blog to know and understand the SNB’s Debt Register Claims for interested. For interested as all will enter the deep seated functioning to the currency price and specifically to USD/CHF.


As written, RBNZ interest rates are to high. RBNZ rates took a giant dive overnight. A raise for the RBNZ was literally impossible.


Respectfully, its been 5 years to trade day trades by interest rates. I’m inside central bank interest rates daily and most times twice daily everyday for 5 years. Its imperative to trade day trades by interest rates for perfection so I must know daily interest rates. And I know all nations extremely well.


5, 10 and 15 year Averages.


EUR/JPY 127.10, 15 year average.
EUR/USD 1.1465, 5 year average.
AUD/USD 0.7322, 5 year average.


NZD/USD 0.6856, 5 year average.
GBP/JPY 149.33, 10 year average.
AUD/JPY 79.98, 5 year average


NZD/JPY 74.88, 5 year average, 76.11, 10 year average, 73.56, 15 year average.
GBP/CHF 1.2611, 5 year average.
EUR/CAD 1.4978, 5 year average, 1.4548, 15 year average. No changes since last posted. Stand clear.


GBP/CAD 1.7383, 15 year average, 1.7262, 10 year average.
NZD/CAD 0.8809, 10 year average, 0.8956, 5 year average
EUR/NZD 1.7425, 15 year average, 1.6751, 5 year average.


GBP/NZD 1.9615, 10 year average, 2.0818, 15 year average.
AUD/NZD 1.0678, 5 year average.
USD/CAD 1.3076, 5 year average.


EUR/AUD 1.5690, 5 year average.
CAD/CHF 0.7399, 5 year average. And = USD/CAD 1.3515


USD/CHF 0.9528, 10 year average.
EUR/GBP 0.8405, 10 year average, 0.8787, 5 year average.


CAD/JPY 86.33, 10 year average, 83.60, 5 year average, 87.39, 15 year average.
USD/JPY 109.21, 5 year average


Pairs not listed are under no threat to major average breaks.

Brian Twomey

RBNZ, Trade Results: NZD/EM, GBP/EM, CAD/EM

As written Sunday, RBNZ interest rates are far to high. The 90 day rate informs to no changes. And, Nothing excited expected for RBNZ. Result is RBNZ is not only on hold but may remain on hold for quite some time. Interest rates remain much to high to consider a raise.


The trading world expected a raise yet no evidence existed to raise or to the multiple raises as many wrote.


One aspect to the RBNZ is to easily qualify as the smartest central bank on the planet. They are smart yet independent and the RBNZ acts in its own best interest rather than willy nilly follow the central bank crowd. in fact, the RBNZ are actually central bank leaders as many follow the RBNZ rather than the RBNZ to follow others.


NZD/USD and NZD/EM due to the covid fall now sits deeply oversold. The vast majority of the NZD/EM trades achieved targets yet much more was gained as NZD/EM participated in the covid drop. Regardless, purpose is targets and entries. Without the Covid drop, targets would’ve achieved as written so th extra pips was a bonus to trader participation on this week’s trades.


GBP/EM and CAD/EM trades also achieved targets and contained the same affects as NZD and NZD/EM as extra pips were granted by participation in the Covid drop to NZD.


CAD/EM also sits deeply oversold as well as select GBP/EM currencies. Correct is either GBP/EM overbought and CAD/EM oversold or CAD/EM overbought and GBP/EM oersold. Correct is to see follow through and universal to overbought and oversold. Vast majority of the most active trades for GBP/EM and CAD/EM re located in European currencies.


Again as in G28 trades, no stops, charts, fibs. Trades are few and profits always very high. A trade begins at entry and ends at target. Extra pips granted on this weeks trades was free money.


NZD/EM


NZD/BRL 3.6928 decides. Lows 3.6227 and oversold.
NZD/CNY 4.5670 decides. Broke to lows 4.4525. Oversold


NZD/CZK Long 15.1024 and 15.0804, targets 15.1464. Highs 15.2030. Target achieved. Oversold
NZD/DKK target 4.4259, achieved. Oversold
NZD/HUF Long 210.11 and 209.86, targets 210.85. Lows 209.09, highs 210.71. Oversold


NZD/MYR Short 2.9831, targets 2.9687.
Highs 2.9887, target achieved.
NZD/PLN Short 2.7286 and 2.7307, targets 2.7143. Target achieved. Oversold


NZD/RON Short 2.9320 and 2.9343, targets 2.9226. Target achieved. Oversold


GBP/EM


GBP/BRL Short 7.2608, target 7.2360. Target achieved Oversold
GBP/CNY 8.9809 decides. Highs 8.9013. Neutral
GBP/DKK Short 8.7630, target 8.7447. Target achieved. Oversold


CAD/EM


CAD/CNY Long 5.1626 and 5.1752, targets 5.1733. Highs 5.1681. Slight miss to target
CAD/CZK long 17.19 and 17.17 to target 17.2020. Lows 17.12, Target achieved.


CAD/DKK Short 5.0428 and 5.0472, targets 5.0339.
Highs 5.0403. Target achieved. Oversold
CAD/HUF Long 238.74 and 238.41, Target 239.18.
No trade. Oversold


CAD/MYR Short 3.3882 and 3.3926, targets 3.3711
Highs 3.3880. Target achieved. neutral
CAD/PLN Short 3.1015 and 3.1052, target 3.0867.


Target achieved, no trade as entry failed to trade. Oversold.
CAD/ZAR Short 11.7549, targets 11.6993.
Highs 11.88, lows 11.72. Overbought.


Profits? many 1000’s of pips.

Brian Twomey

CAD/ZAR, CAD/EM and GBP/EM

As written in 18 currency pair trade rankings, USD/EM and EUR/EM wasn’t very appealing this week to trades and reveals a fairly neutral market. A neutral market must then take the next best view and that is found in CAD/ZAR and written many times over the years.


EUR/USD’s perfect opposite currency is CAD/ZAR as CAD/ZAR serves the expression as a USD currency. Over many months this year, EUR/USD and CAD/ZAR were deeply married as movements in both pair contained dead ranges. This is now changing as EUR/USD and CAD/ZAR ranges are opening wide, slowly week to week yet widening. This is encouraging to overall better weekly trades ahead.


EUR/USD as written contains a long only strategy while CAD/ZAR is opposite as a short only strategy. This is the same as saying long EUR/USD and short USD currencies. Viewed from oversold GBP/USD then overbought GBP/ZAR comports to oversold GBP/USD.


We’re short USD/CAD this week as overbought CAD/EM complies to shorts. A comparison from the next set of opposite currencies, GBP/USD V USD/CAD reveals GBP/EM is oversold and overbought for CAD/EM yet not universal throughout all currencies.


The currency system contains 476 currency pairs and its quite easy to view any currency for trade purposes in minutes.


CAD/EM


CAD/EM is much aligned as NZD/EM as the best trades are located in CAD/Europe.
CAD/BRL 4.1905 decides longs and shorts.


CAD/CNY oversold, long 5.1626 and 5.1572 to target 5.1733.
CAD/CZK oversold, long 17.19 and 17.1764 to target 17.2029.


CAD/DKK overbought, short 5.0428 and 5.0472 to target 5.0339.
CAD/HUF oversold, long 238.74 and 238.41 to target 239.18.


CAD/MYR overbought, short 3.3882 and 3.3926 to target 3.3711.
CAD/PLN overbought, short 3.1015 and 3.1052 to target 3.0867.


CAD/ZAR deep overbought, short 11.7549 to target 11.6993.


CAD/EM contains 4 overbought currencies, 3 oversold and 2 undecided.


GBP/EM


GBP/BRL deeply oversold, break 7.2606 targets 7.2369.
GBP/CNY oversold. 8.9809 decides.


GBP/CZK oversold,
GBP/DKK overbought, short 8.7630, targets 8.7447


GBP/HUF, oversold,
GBP/MYR overbought


GBP/PLN, neutral
GBP/RON, neutral,


GBP/TRY oversold
GBP/ZAR overbought.


Where EM becomes interesting this week and non compliant is CAD/EM contains the same trades as GBP/EM and NZD/EM and Europe is where the majority of movements will be seen and fairly neutral for EM/ASIA.

Brian Twomey

18 Currency Pair Trade Rankings

Trade Rankings EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/NZD, AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/AUD, NZD/JPY, NZD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF


USD/JPY this week is in a literal do or die situation at 109.49 however all JPY cross pairs are oversold and explains EUR/JPY’s position in second this week. EUR/JPY is followed by AUD/JPY. Least favored is NZD/JPY.


USD/CAD last week traded 99 pips to match EUR/USD and 123 pips 2 weeks ago. CAD/JPY traded 86 pips last week and 144 pips 2 weeks ago.


Oversold EUR/NZD contains divergence to GBP/NZD as GBP/NZD also sits at a literal do or die situation.


AUD/USD will continue to perform perfectly while nothing special to NZD/USD however NZD trades are good but overall profits will falter due to severely compressed ranges for all currency pairs. NZD/USD as lowest exchange rate among 60+ currencies always suffers the effects to dead ranges to wider movement currency pairs.


GBP Trade Rankings


GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD and GBP/NZD.


GBP/USD is in a cautionary 1st position as ranges died. GBP/USD traded 105 pips last week and this week won’t see improvements. Recall last week, GBP/USD earned last position and a correct analysis.


Last week’s trade winners as best movers were GBP/CHF, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD and GBP/NZD. If GBP/USD dies then GBP/JPY naturally follows. GBP/JPY earns middle position to rankings due to a horrible position to begin the week.


Overall, currency markets to include USD/EM and EUR/EM begins the week in neutral positions. The best of USD/EM and EUR/EM trades were taken and profited.


RBNZ


RBNZ interest rates are far to high. The 90 day rate informs to no changes.


EUR/EM


EUR/HUF
Severely oversold and targets 354.45 from 252.54.
EUR/MYR Targets 4.9779 from 4.9770.


USD/EM


USD/MYR remains slightly overbought however not to the degree to get excited.
Deeply oversold USD/TRY target 8.6472 while overbought USD/ZAR targets 14.6021.
USD/TRY is in deep contention with oversold EUR/TRY. Only one currency can win.


NZD/EM


NZD/BRL do or die at 3.6928
NZD/CNY Do or die at 4.5670


NZD/CZK Longs from 15.1024 and 15.0804 targets 15.1464.
NZD/DKK Deeply overbought targets 4.4259.


NZD/HUF Long 210.11 and 209.86 targets 210.85
NZD/MYR overbought and Short 2.9831 to target 2.9687


NZD/PLN Overbought and short 2.7286 and 2.7307 to target 2.7143.
NZD/RON overbought and short 2.9320 and 2.9343 to target 2.9226.


Majority of the NZD big EM movers are overbought and EUR is the overbought region.


Nothing excited expected for RBNZ. Best NZD/USD shorts targets 0.6979.

Brian Twomey

EUR/EM and USD/EM Trade Results

On an incredibly dead mover trade week, EUR/USD traded a 69 pip range. As written Sunday, EUR/EM began the week deeply oversold and remains oversold along with EUR/USD. Long only EUR/EM strategies remain and short USD/EM into next week or until proper levels trade.


EUR/CNY longs target 7.6520, Highs 7.6301, +150 pips. Oversold and long into next week to target 7.5420.


Targets never change as they are written in Mathematical stone. Only one Brian Twomey exists as target trading was achieved over 9 years ago as demonstrated many times here. EM currencies move far and wide and even on dead G28 trade weeks. Profits are huge however a sincerely good trade strategy is required.


EUR/CZK longs Target 25.4697, highs 25.4442, miss by 6 pips. Remains oversold. Long into next week.


EUR/HRK Longs Target 7.5107, Highs 7.5061


EUR/HUF Longs Target 355.49, Highs 355.67 Call it perfect. Oversold and long into next week.
EUR/ILS Longs Target 3.8270, Highs 3.8006, Oversold and longs into next week.


EUR/INR Longs target 88.13, highs 87.52. Massive oversold, Longs into next week.
EUR/MXN Longs target 23.77, highs 23.65, Massive oversold, longs into next week.


EUR/PLN Shorts target 4.5623, Lows 4.5575, few extra free pips. Massive overbought, shorts into next week.


USD/EM


USD/BRL Must break 5.2137 to trade lower. BRL broke and traded 500 pips lower to 5.1646
USD/CNY Shorts target 6.4734., Lows 6.4716, call it perfect. Neutral into next week.


USD/DKk Shorts target 6.2878, Lows 6.3272 from 6.3543. Overbought, shorts into next week.
USD/HRK Shorts target 6.3432, Lows 6.3772. Massive overbought, shorts into next week.


USD/HUF Lower must Break 299.08, Held, neutral into next week.
USD/MYR Short targets 4.2137, Lows 4.2108. Call it perfect. neutral into next week.


USD/RON Shorts target 4.1610, Lows 4.1734, from 4.2004, overbought, short into next week.
USD/TRY Shorts target 8.6043, Target achieved. Oversold into next week.


USD/ZAR shorts target 14.5906, Lows 14.5790. Massive overbought into next week.

Brian Twomey

GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD, USD/CHF, EUR, SNB

EUR/USD all week traded at deep oversold and trades currently at richter scale oversold. Long only strategy until at least middle 1.1800’s as written. Then possibly shorts may work. No downside exists for EUR and shorts are impossible.


Same story for AUD however AUD/USD yesterday and into this trade day stands fairly neutral which means AUD could trade a bit lower then long drops and shorts at 0.7400’s.
NZD/USD was a bit top heavy yesterday and slightly overbought so we are long at lower levels.
EUR/AUD wider ranges by AUD/EUR are located at 1.6025 to 1.5862. A break at 1.5880 then look out below EUR/AUD.


GBP/AUD by AUD/GBP ranges informs 1.8932 to 1.8740.


The strategy for both EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD is short only as much downside exists. A sucker’s bet to target 1.9137 at the 50 Fib and more gambles to go long. Gimme a break.
Dead USD/JPY dropped 49 pips this week, 41 pips for USD/CHF and 58 pips for USD/CAD. Short only for USD.


USD/CHF at richter scale overbought and moved only 40 ish pips this week. The question is what’s the problem. CHF/USD informs a range from 0.9265 to 0.9171. From the SNB and 3 month Libor then the range becomes 0.9201 to 0.9125.


The SNB’s Overnight Rate Saron moved barely 3 points since January. Call Money rates haven’t changed since July 2020 and vital vital Debt Register Claims moved 8 points since January.
2 aspects are working against USD/CHF movements. Dead USD interest rates and completely dead SNB interest rates. Both sides cut off USD/CHF movements.


if underlying Interest rates contains a problem then it immediately reflects on the currency price. Interest rates for the most part operate correctly from nation to nation but problems occur from time to time. Much the same written a few years ago to AUD/USD and RBA interest rates lack correlations. This could easily be the case for the SNB and USD/CHF. But it won’t be known explicitly until the data is ran and viewed.


The only strategy for USD/CHF is remain short and short any tops as USD/CHF contains a long way to drop. We;re looking at at least 100 pips and coincides to higher EUR/USD 100 pips to at least middle 1.1800’s.


Overall strategies remain into next week or until proper exchange rates trade.

Brian Twomey

Gold, DXY, EUR/USD

The responsibility for Gold’s move was 1839. Inflation was known since June and the virus was known every second of everyday for 1 1/2 years. The Democrats won’t allow us to forget it as much mileage is gained to torture America piece by piece.


The Democrats haven’t changed one iota since the 1860’s except they grew more sophisticated to overall destructive strategies by implementation of the Soviet Union model to America’s complete takeover. The strategy is brilliant and working to absolute perfection without a shot fired nor civil war will be seen. Once complete, Democrats will export the model for implementation to other nations.


While Gold dropped, DXY traveled higher and coincided to 1839 Gold on a break of 92.89.
The battle lines are drawn. EUR/USD, AUS/USD and NZD/USD trade at richter scale oversold while USD/CHF and USD/JPY trade massive overbought and correct for USD/CAD to sit idle yet overbought. Rare day for USD/CAD to join the pack against USD/CHF and USD/JPY.


The only strategy is long EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD and short USD/CHF, USD/JPY and USD/CAD as a massive divide exists between USD and non USD to currency market exchange rates.


EUR/USD should trade at lower to middle 1.1800’s, AUD/USD to lower to middle 0.7400’s and NZD/USD to middle 0.7000’s, USD/CHF to middle 0.9100’s.


EUR/USD and NZD/USD lead as AUD/USD and GBP/USD are follower currencies to EUR/USD and NZD/USD.
GBP/USD Broke below 1.3885 and as usual remains the oddball currency but GBP/USD rarely leads. GBP/USD must break 1.3885 to trade higher.


How about this fact. A true 5 and 10 day average is mathematically impossible to trade and profit from day trades. Shows the true reality to new central bank day trade scales to prevent market movements. But this is also the reality to year 49 of the free float currency and as mentioned many times over the years, hurry and profit due to price slowdown. Now its here.

Brian Twomey

Gold: Levels, Ranges and Targets

The last Gold trade was written and taken about 2 months ago. Short 1815 to target 1.1728 for 87 points in 2 days.


Gold 3 days broke vital vital 1839.59 and traveled to 1711 for 147 points.
Requirements for this trade as was the criteria 2 months ago was short the break of the monthly average or 12 numbers at 1839.


The target 2 months ago was the next average at 1728. Today’s next average is 1747. Gold broke this average to trade to 1711.


Note 2 months ago 87 points Vs today 147. The first monthly average rose by 2 points while the lower average rose by 19 points.


If 24 numbers were known in advance then traders had an easy trade of at least 90 points. Sorry I missed the trade as I just ran through the numbers but I would’ve bailed at 1747 for 90 points. The break 0f 1747 to 1711 I would’ve meant long to target 1747 or the break above for more points and profits.


The only difference between Gold 2 months ago and today is ranges expanded slightly but only slightly.


Here’ Gold’s lineup: 1510.03 at the 5 year average then 557.30, 1615.43, 1747.80 and 1839.59.
Gold’s major malfunction is it trades above its 5 year average at 1510 and DXY trades below its 5 year average at 95.00’s. Both DXY and Gold are mispositioned as both must trade above or below 5 year averages. This misposition is a few years old.


The Gold standard was active as a market trade vehicle for 1000 years therefore its customary by legacy standardd for a nation’s currency to correlate to the nation’s Gold price. EUR/USD must correlate to EUR /Gold, GBP to GBP /Gold and AUD/USD to AUD/GOLD.


The strategy moving forward is short tops. Key points are 1730.79, 1756.74 and 1778.56. Bet a Fib number won’t be found here nor in the vital averages.

From USD/XAU and today’s Fed, the larger range is located from 2000 to 1515.15. USD/XAU 16 points predicts 500 points. Traders see big numbers as 1730.57 while USD/XAU factors as 0.00050 to 0.00058. Easier numbers.


Flash crash, volatility are wrong terms as Gold was a very normal priced movement based on the averages. To the unsuspected traders to Gold’s move, we can add calamitous, cataclysmic, catastrophic, market crash. Poor traders are up against the same old tired stories from the same tired people and this can’t be stopped as the proliferation is far to great. Traders must be extraordinarily careful who to follow and trust.

Brian Twomey

EUR Vs EM Currency Trades and Targets

EUR viewed from EM currencies as EUR/EM sits this week massively oversold and many pairs exist to fit the criteria. EUR/EM massive oversold complements and confirms equal overbought from USD/EM. Trade action, big profits and easy trades are seen most specifically in EM markets either as short USD/EM or long EUR/EM.


Long EUR/USD strategies over past weeks resulted in correct trades, analysis and a smart strategy. No analysis nor thoughts are involved this week to long EUR/USD nor to its position as first among the first 12 currency pairs.


G28 and EM currencies are all connected and interrelated to each other and not total separate markets as if both were separate planets. Its not the case. EM currencies contain wide ranges and move far and wide while G28 currencies move slow and not very far. Easier to view EM as overbought / oversold than G28 therefore easier to see great trades for EM but also direction to G28.


Practically every EUR/EM currency sits deeply oversold. Take your pick.
EUR/BRL not much happening to EUR/BRL nor USD/BRL.


EUR/CNY Long targets 7.6520 for +300 pips.
EUR/CZK Targets 25.4697 easily.


EUR/DKK Nothing here but overbought USD/DKK only trade short. Good advice: never trade EUR/DKK only USD/DKK.


EUR/HRK longs target 7.5107 and short USD/HRK was posted.
EUR/HUF targets 355.49


EUR/ILS Longs target 3.8270
EUR/INR Massive oversold targets 88.13


EUR/MXN targets 23.77 and don’t bother to trade EUR/MXN


EUR/MYR nothing here


EUR/PLN Shorts target 4.5623, better trade short USD/PLN.

Brian Twomey

18 Currency Pair Trade Rankings

18 Currency Pair Weekly Trade Rankings EUR/USD, AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, EUR/AUD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, NZD/JPY, EUR/NZD, EUR/JPY, AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF, CAD/JPY


EUR/USD as faiirly normal week to week maintains first position. EUR/USD is not only oversold but continuation to a long only strategy will and has paid many, many pips.


EUR/AUD moves to 4th position from second last week in favor of oversold AUD/USD and AUD/JPY. The question to AUD is easy trades and most profits and AUD fits the criteria Vs EUR/AUD. AUD is the preferred pair to this week as ranges are good and normal in comparison to counterparts. Last week AUD/USD and AUD/JPY held 4th and 5th positions.


Overbought USD/CAD moves to 5th position from 9th last week. Recall last week’s written words: USD/CAD this week isn’t a terrible trade yet USD/CAD ranges this week died and the position to CAD/JPY isn’t the best to location for both trades.


Last week’s analysis to USD/CAD and CAD/JPY was correct as USD/CAD ranged 127 pips last week to CAD/JPY 147. Rare days when CAD/JPY outperforms USD/CAD. The opposite must hold for a normal relationship.

Oversold NZD/USD, NZD/JPY and NZD/CHF moves from 8, 9 and 10th position last week to 6 and 7 for NZD/USD and NZD/JPY and 11th position this week for NZD/CHF from 10th position last week. NZD/CHF joins with AUD/CHF as nothing going on with both pairs to easy trades and trade profits.


EUR/NZD moves to 8th position this week from 3rd position last week despite massive oversold. EUR/NZD contains not only range problems but is divergent to GBP/NZD. EUR.NZD moved 343 pips last week to 302 for GBP/NZD.


Same story this week as last to JPY cross pairs as all will trade a bit higher then much lower along with USD/JPY. USD/CHF moves to overbought this week from deeply oversold last week and prior weeks.


DXY 92.78 and USD/CHF contains this week a 135 pip spread and down 23 pips from last week. Better moves for DXY and USD currencies will be seen when the spread tightens as USD/CHF must marry DXY to move.


GBP


GBP/AUD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD, GBP/USD


GBP/AUD shorts into week 4 and 5 will continue to pay many, many pips and its position deserves 1st place.


GBP/USD ranged 97 pips last week, 127 for USD/CAD, 142 EUR/USD, 96 AUD/USD, 136 for NZD/USD and 162 for USD/JPY.


GBP/USD along with USD/CAD ranges died last week and remains dead this week. Overbought GBP/CAD moves to middle position along with GBP/CHF.


EM


Oversold USD/BRK must break 5.2137 to trade lower.
Deeply overbought USD/CNY targets easily 6.4734.
Massive overbought USD/DKK targets 6.2878 from 6.3230.


Richter scale overbought USD/HRK targets 6.3432 from 6.3752.
USD/HUF lower must break 299.08.


USD/MYR short 4.2253 and 4.2281 to target 4.2137.
USD/PLN targets 3.9585


USD/RON target s1.1610
USD/TRY overbought targets 8.6043


Overbought USD/TRY Vs oversold EUR/USD is correct.


Overbought USD/ZAR targets 14.5906


AS EUR/USD remains long only strategies, USD/CAD contains a short only strategy and complies to a vast majority of overbought USD/EM currencies.


Overall, hardly any changes week to week. Written is more about hype and public relations than anything sensible to markets and movements. Trade Rankings reshuffles currencies from the same deck of cards.

Brian Twomey

NFP, GBP/USD, EUR/USD

Non Farm Payrolls forecasts 870,000 Vs previous 850,000 or a 20,000 difference. Forecasts are derived from NFP averages from 1 to 4 years at best from a vital release since inception in Fenruary 1939 or 82 years. At 1 to 3 year moving averages doesn’t necessarily forecast correctly NFP.


Vital to true market moves is the 50,000 range established in 1939 and its held as standard to every NFP release since 1939. A forecast of 870 requires a release at 820,000 or 920,000 to see the best moves. A forecast within 50,000 then a range and day trade trade exists.
Due to the standard 50,000 range, averages to NFP are volatile especially shorter term averages and explains misses to forecasts. Averages 1 to 4 years doesn’t necessarily forecast 82 years correctly.


Average hourly earnings and the Labor Force Participation rate hardly moved in 82 years and is not important to NFP or movements. Only the 50,000. Average hourly earnings followed Wage increases since 25 cents was mandated in 1939 to $15.00 ish today. Wage studies are employed to jons and regions of the nation. Workers are paid a subsistence to live and pay essential monthly rents and bills with a slight bit lerftover.


From 2017 data, The 50,000 was seen 85 times in the last 20 years, 71 times in the prior 20 years, 68 times in the prior 20 years and 37 times from February 1939 to 1952. Overall, the 50,000 was seen 261 times in 942 months or 1/4 over the life of NFP. .


Why follow Continuing Claims as an indicator is because the overall range is traditional 50,000 and matches NFP’s 50,000. Its the insight indicator to NFP.


AUD/CAD rose this week from 0.9199 to 0.9315 or 116 pips. Shorts were truly impossible.
GBP/USD yesterday GBPUSD for today 1.3816, 1.3833, 1.3840, 1.3851, 1.3861, 1.3874


Vs 1.3894, 1.3903, 1.3912, 1.3921, 1.3929, 1.3938, 1.3947 and 1.3956.


GBP/USD range over last 24 hours: 1.3871 to 1.3947 or 76 pips and despite BOE and all the backwards Inflation, GDP, Interest rate, taper, covid mumbo jumbo.


GBP/USD today 1.3851, 1.3868, 1.3877, 1.3886, 1.3896,


Vs 1.3929, 1.3938, 1.3947, 1.3956, 1.3973, 1.3982 and 1.3991


What changed in 24 hours was 35 pips. GBP/USD big break is located at 1.3879 then much lower over today and next week.


EUR/USD 1.1910 at week’s beginning is today 1.1917 to trade higher and a drop of 4 pips since yesterday’s 1.1921.


The EUR/USD trade strategy remains long only as it was for the past 2 and 3 weeks.


EUR/USD today 1.1766, 1.1781, 1.1789, 1.1796, 1.1804, 1.1815,


Vs 1.1833, 1.1841, 1.1848, 11856, 1.1871, 1.1878 and 1.1886


Today’s day trade from the ECB and price series informs 1.1917 holds.

Brian Twomey

Central Banks, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD

Fed and central bank meetings in days past met anytime without a public pre announcement schedule. Central bank meetings then were extremely vital to monitor because Interest rates were raised or lowered based on the vote of the board. Never an early warning to a possible raise, lower or remain on hold. Nor was the size of an adjustment known in advance. Quite common was 0.50 then 0.75.


The only advance warning for a trader was to run interest rate data to determine overbought and oversold for a possible interest rate direction or on hold. Its an exact science yesterday and into this modern trade day but the difference is today’s averages don’t move compared to days past.
Interest rates then were quoted as headline and discount rates. The terminology changed in the modern day to headline and overnight rates but the meaning is the exact same. The overnight rate remains a discount to headline.


Market reactions had to immediately price the new interest rate adjustment and moves were extraordinary. 2 and 300 pip EUR/USD moves were quite common. These were the days of true volatility but also the days when DXY didn’t exist as a means to measure EUR moves.


Year 2000 came along and central banks were mandated to meet every 6 weeks. Not much ever changes to central bank policy in 6 weeks time. We hear the same old taper / raise story meeting after meeting. What changed were market moves. Today’s 50 pip central bank moves lack comparison to 2 and 300 pip moves. A 100 pips move today is extraordinary and in one direction. This is called volatility today.


Then came Forward Guidance, the bits and pieces to possible policy or taper and interest rate changes released to the public. Here traders hang on to every word from central speakers with hope to place another piece to the jigsaw puzzle together so we know exactly what will happen at meetings.


GBP Vs EM


Most GBP pairs to EM are oversold/ overbought to neutral. Nothing stands out as any trades to rush or trade on this day.


GBPUSD for today 1.3816, 1.3833, 1.3840, 1.3851, 1.3861, 1.3874


Vs 1.3894, 1.3903, 1.3912, 1.3921, 1.3929, 1.3938, 1.3947 and 1.3956.

Don’t expect the BOE to offer anything other than this price series as the price series is derived from the BOE. The central banks inform everyday how to trade their currencies, meeting or no meeting.


Long at the lows and short at the tops to strategy. Watch tops at 1.3921 and 1.3929.


GBP/JPY watch for shorts at 153.05 and 153.20.


GBP/CHF higher on a break above 1.2638.


GBP/CAD at richter scale overbought and targets 1.7370 easily then 1.7348.


GBP/NZD oversold and targets 1.9783 easily.


GBP/AUD watch 1.8813 and shorts to target 1.8738.

Brian Twomey

QE, EURUSD, JPY, CAD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD

The traditional role of the Fed and central banks since inception is to add and subtract weekly money to the system. By addition and subtraction, the interest rate by trading a true market rate decides the proper level based on weekly money. Its truly market determined.


The 2008 crash came along and changed the traditional formula to QE then Congress passed policies to control the interest rate to never trade to zero. Naturally all central banks followed. By interest rate control, QE to infinity had a field day as central banks and the political system now controlled markets and economies. Both failed on a large scale as populations were the big losers and market movements died a horrible death.


Today, we ask the question taper or no taper, how much and when. The traditional question should be how much to raise and when. The interest rate and markets then decides how much money is required or not to add or subtract to the system.


By Keynesian QE, the true interest rate level is unknown except it won’t trade to 0 or negative. Rescind the QE policies and go back to the true market determined Austrian policies of traditional central bank roles to add or subtract weekly money then the true interest rate will be known and economies will again flourish as GDP and Inflation will find its rightful place rather than its misguided arrangement since 2008.


QE was all about control to markets and economies and this led to Obama and the dream for full control from the political system. The old Soviet model to takeover is currently in full force and working perfectly for Democrats. Once the takeover is complete then the implementation to the Soviet model switches to the Chinese cultural revolution on a grand 2.0 scale. The Chinese will tip their hat to the Democrats.


USD/JPY broke 1`09.40 and 109.12 as written Sunday and traded to 108.87 lows or 53 pips.
EUR/USD 1.1910 Sunday is now 1.1921 to break and trade higher. A rising MA and a rising price informs the break won’t come easy.


GBP/USD lower must break 1.3880 and any price above 1.3935 begins a short strategy and covers BOE and despite BOE balh blah as this is the value of central bank speak today and its not connected to the market price.


AUD/USD Next above levels are 0.7441 and 0.7472. Big line break below is located at 0.7380. Don’t look for 0.7200’s to trade anytime soon. Any price below 0.7380 begins a long only strategy. AUD for this day tops at 0.7437 then begins shorts.


NZD/USD broke vital 0.7049. For today, NZD threatens 0.7063, 0.7087 and 0.7092. Then begins shorts.


USD/CAD trades firmly above 1.2474. Watch today 1.2554 and 1.2561. Above begins shorts.

Brian Twomey