GBP/JPY MA’s

GBP/JPY closed at 142.29 and now approaches an important break point at 142.35 then comes 143.39. The 18 year mid point is located at 156.65. From the 5 year average at 159.50 to 140.45 lows, the mid point is located at 149.97. GBP/JPY should see good moves in the upcoming weeks.

 

GBP/JPY close 142.29

XXX average = 142.35, = Special designed average

81 day average = 143.39

GBP/JPY close 142.29

337 day = 140.45

595 = 156.76

850 = 163.10

1105 = 162.81

1360 = 157.37

1616 = 152.29

1875 = 149.52

2132 = 149.29

2387 = 151.17

2643 = 158.35

2897 = 164.21

3153 = 167.33

3412 = 169.73

3669 = 171.27

3924 = 172.38

4178 = 172.86

4432 = 172.39

4689 = 172.57

4787 = 172.97

 

Brian Twomey

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GBP/CHF MA’s

 

Following are MA’s from 81 day to 4787 day. The 18 year mid point is located at 1.5871. From the 5 year average at 1.4179 to 1.2458, the Mid Point is located at 1.3318. The signal inside current price remains highly elevated and it means a move is coming. A move means the current range cannot hold and must break out.

Most central banks employ stimulus to buy their own assets, bonds and FX but not the SNB as they buy and sell other nations assets, bonds and FX. This methodology contains on purpose CHF.  While highlighted here is GBP/CHF, all pairs containing CHF are experiencing the same Signal / Range problem. The SNB has always been a smart central bank but if smart means containment of CHF prices then so be it as the SNB could care less about CHF traders. When the SNB stops the purchases and comes to their senses or the market imposes their will on CHF then CHF will see a move like nobody ever saw.

What the averages reveal from overall currency pairs is how low and beaten down are prices due to the 2008 crisis. Worse is prices never recovered, 9 years later and against all the faulty stimulus experiments. Possibly, low and beaten down was the overall plan.

81 day = 1.2474

XXX = 1.2464 = Special designed MA

GBP/CHF close 1.2458

338 day = 1.2689

596 = 1.2518

851 = 1.2941

1106 = 1.4099

1360 = 1.4235

1617 = 1.4211

1876 = 1.4390

2133 = 1.4693

2388 = 1.5093

2643 = 1.5836

2897 = 1.6517

3154 = 1.7024

3413 = 1.7440

3670 = 1.7793

3925 = 1.8104

4178 = 1.8467

4432 = 1.8835

4690 = 1.9190

4787 = 1.9279 = Jan 1, 1999

 

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD MA’s

Following are GBP/USD MA’s from 81 day to 4787 day. Most vital break points over next days and weeks are 1.2925 and 1.2908.  Currently price is far overbought from break points. The historic 18 year mid point is located at 1.4716. From the 5 year average at 1.4936 to 1.2908 lows, the Mid point is located at 1.3922. GBP/USD 1.2900’s provide massive supports from averages 10 to 100 and range from 1.2995 to 1.2924.

81 day = 1.2925

XX = 1.2908 = Special MA

338 day = 1.2880

GBP/USD current close 1.3196

596 = 1.3792

851 = 1.4432

1106 = 1.4810

1360 = 1.4979

1617 = 1.5128

1876 = 1.5208

2133 = 1.5304

2388 = 1.5442

2643 = 1.5888

2897 = 1.6174

3154 = 1.6302

3413 =1.6475

3670 = 1.6524

3925 = 1.6465

4178 = 1.6337

4432 = 1.6239

4690 = 1.6228

4787 = 1.6229 = Jan 1, 1999

 

Brian Twomey

 

AUD/USD: MA’s

 

Following are Moving averages dated from the 81 day to 4767 day and dates to Jan 1, 1999.

Most important above 0.8053, 0.8124 and 0.8238 Vs Below 0.7905, 0.7820, 0.7799 and 0.7740.

The mid point from the 81 day to 4787 day is 0.8205.

81 day = 0.7740

338 day = 0.7573

896 day = 0.7468

851 day = 0.7799

AUD/USD Close = 0.8054

1106 day = 0.8124

1360 = 0.8534

1617 = 0.8831

1876 = 0.8942

2133 = 0.8920

2388 day = 0.8787

2643 = 0.8790

2897 = 0.8698

3154 = 0.8601

3413 = 0.8513

3670 = 0.8413

3925 = 0.8238

AUD/USD Close 0.8054

4178 = 0.8053

AUD/USD Close 0.8054

4432 = 0.7905

4690 = 0.7820

4787 = 0.7791 = January 1, 1999

 

Brian Twomey

G10 and Draghi: Levels, Ranges, Targets

 

EUR/USD traveled 969 pips since June from 1.1122 to 1.2091 and the explanation to EUR/USD’s rise is not found in Trump as any may believe but rather in the European Money Supply.

European M3 is growing from 4.5% to 5.0% and from July’s M3 at 11,654 billion that means roughly 571.046 million and a range from 11,082 to 12,225. Last time this issue was visited, M3 was severely overbought at 12,000’s and targeted 9,000 to 10,000 and lower 11,000’s.

June M3 was 11,650 and May was 11,608. The EUR/USD rise is most explained by M1 as Currency in Circulation and Deposits were off 9.1% in July, from minus 9.7% in June. May was unchanged at 9.3%. What was off was the rate of growth in M1 as May began at 7476 and rose to 7532 in June and 7554 in July. Why July is Money Supply figures are reported for the previous month as the release is to sensitive for real time releases.

Overall M3 from January at 11,436 to July at 11,654 is an addition of 218 million in 8 months or roughly 27 million per month.
The restriction of the money supply is a positive development to explain EUR/USD rise from June yet EUR/USD rose strictly by the excghange rate as interest rates faied to follow and support the rise. EUR/USD is now massively overbought and interest rates flat on the floor. Flat on the floor means interest rate curves lacks a signal and informs the interest rate is sloshing around and going nowhere. Inside the interest rate price is zero, nothing. The analogy of the lost ship is apt. Yet the Interest rate should be much higher than current 0.64.

If Draghi’s economy is as rosy as he states then price indicators in GDP and Inflation must rise. This means interest rates and the EUR/USD can travel much higher from current levels. Draghi won’t have a choice except to raise to support the recovery. The question is if as we;ve seen this story before over the failed 9 years of stimulus and economic dreams.

If Draghi restricts stimulus purchases from $60 to $40 then a further EUR rise is supported . The greatest risk for Draghi is the exchange rate to travel far hgher out of control before he sees GDP and Inflation higher. Furher, if the exchange rate travels higher without interest rate support then the economic reality will come to an end and the exchange rate wil drop like a rock. The exchange and interest rate together is currently far out of kilter. This must be aligned first beforte Draghi can think bullish economically.

From the USD side, if Trump passes the proposed tax cut then USD’s current position on the floor should see a recovery. The tax cut severely challenges Draghi as Europe and USD are designed as total competitive opposites. One side must win while the other side loses. One side’s GDP and exchange rate will rise while the other side falters. Further, both Draghi and Yellen propose restriction of stimulus and its bullish for both USD and EUR.

While Draghi is feeling as confident as a movie star after a 9 year hiatus, he like Yellen has challenges ahead and the road won’t be easy.

EUR/USD is approaching its 5 year average at 1.2075 yet EUR/USD is far overbought from the 50 and 253 day averages. As EUR/USD climbed since June, the rise dragged AUD and NZD prices higher. Draghi and Yellen;’s decisions contain implications out side Europe and the US. AUD/USD overbought is in the stratosphere and longs are not recommended.

The breaks for EUR/USD are located at 1.2101 above and 1.2027 below. Below 1.2027 then comes 1.2003 while above targets 1.2095 and 1.2128. What Draghi created in EUR/USD is larger ranges in which EUR may travel. If ranges in EUR expanded then its natural to see USD ranges restrict an this is the case.

USD/JPY must breaks are located today at 107.33 and 107.71.

USD?CAD breaks are located at 1.2038 and 1.2081 Vs 1.2103 and target to 1.2153 on breaks.

Brian Twomey

G10, Trump Debt and Budgets: levels, Ranges, Targets

 

In the United States, government fiscal years begin October to October. This means a budget must pass by October or the Federal Government is broke and lacks ability to spend money. Every government since United States beginning passed a budget in October. Then America’s Bummer decided he would eliminate a budget and ask Congress to pass X amount of money in a Continuing Resolution.

By Congressional abdication in this constitutional violation of Article 1, Section 8, Congressional budget hearings were eliminated as well as budget appropriations. How much is the budget, where the money is appropriated , to which agency and what program is unknown for 8 solid years. Yet the debt limit was raised every year for the past 8 years. This means more money was spent every year. Most important to Congressional Budget hearings are the words I swear under penalty of Perjury.
Trump’s Budget director Mulvaney has been working on a budget for October passage since January as somebody must know how much money has the Federal government spent in 8 years and the accountability to the money.

Trump’s raise the Debt Limit deal with the Democrats broke the budget yet again by extending the Debt Limit to December. The overall Cardinal Sin every Republican president made since Eisenhower except Reagan is don’t ever deal with a Democrat, understand their overall economic and military threat to America and realize any dealings are Democrat set ups to disaster. A Democrat in power never dealt with a Republican while a Democrat out of power begs for a seat at the table. A colossal Trump mistake is give the Democrats the seat yet Trump has been ahead of the curve so must watch as Trump’s move maybe part of strategy.

What the Democrats received are monies to agency programs, programs slated for elimination in my opinion as the $20 trillion debt must be slashed. If the numbers are correct , the current deficit is $600 billion, an increase in billions of $1.0623 and roughy 3% of GDP. The new budget will increase defense spending from $150 billion to almost $230 billion as America’s defenses are extremely low. Naval ships at 136 is severely down from the highs under Reagan at about 230.

Just as exchange rates and money supplies are vital nation to nation as nations must remain competitive to each other, budgets and spend programs are an abdication to Congressional responsibility. Next on the budget list for November is Europe, Australia and New Zealand budgets passed in the summer and Canada in March. The UK is slated for February. The how much question is unknown for nations as they all align budgets to USD.

EUR/USD above exists 1.2019 as today’s top and 1.1958 and 1.1885 below.

EUR/JPY faces yet again massive resistance at 130.45, 130.50 and 130.81 and below at 129.39.

USD/JPY must decide 108.95 and 108.60 or 109.20.

GBP/USD is currently at day’s highs at 1.3085 and 1.3114 Vs below 1.3016.

Brian Twomey

G10 and Draghi: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Fed Funds Friday on NFP day closed at 1.07. Normally, Fed Funds closes 2 to 3 times per month far lower than normal 1.16. Last month was the first time when this pattern failed after nearly a 1 year long stretch. Fed Funds must normalize again. What 1.07 means is USD and USD currency pairs are affected. How much means USD pairs are off by at least 5 pips. What’s off is support and resistance levels.

What we know about Draghi and QE is European interest rates not only operate in tiny channels but interest rates are severely oversold. European interest rates are low, artificial, contained and should be far higher. European money supplies are far overbought and should be much lower.

Overbought money supplies places upward pressure on interest rates as money and interest rates share an adverse relationship. Restrict money then interest rates naturally travel higher. But Draghi wants more QE to add to an already overbought money supply. It doesn’t matter how much Draghi purchases because overall it means a drop in EUR and all EUR pairs. Not an ounce of bullishness exists to Draghi’s QE policies as all economic indicators from GDP to confidence will drop dramatically over time.

Draghi’s dilemma is not in the fantasy QE will bring economc prosperity but he risks interest rates traveling much higher. The greatest risk in higher interest rates is EUR pairs higher. One mistake by Draghi then interest rates and EUR skyrocket. Then Draghi and Europe are finished. Draghi will be looking for the next Marshall Plan.

In a world heading for War, outside influences from war, a missile, a more horrific terrorist attack would force European interest rates higher. Draghi won’rt be able to stop skyrocket higher interest rates as interest rate markets will impose higher rates for Draghi. Draghi knows he should do nothing on the QE front as we are dealing with Economics 101 from Community College.

EUR/USD is contained today from 1.1869 to 1.1927

GBP/USD targets are located at 1.2977 and 1.2998.

EUR/JPY faces massive resistance at 130.47, 130.71 and 130.96.

USD/JPY contained from 109.16 to 109.61.

USD/CAD must break 1.2376 then next comes 1.2417 then higher.

Brian Twomey

ECB: Negative Interest Rates, QE and Draghi

 

 

Draghi’s negative interest rate intention in 2014 encompassed two original goals. The first was to force money away from bank accounts and sit idle. The second goal was to pressure money into investments by house purchases, real estate, equities. company formation. How is Draghi doing after 3 years of negative rates and what are the prospects.

Wages in July reported 1.6% and higher than 1.4% in June 2016 yet below 1.8% in January 2017. In June to September 2014 when the ECB went negative, Wages were on the floor at 1.4%. Since 2008, Wages went negative. A rise from 1.4% to 1.8 % for context means a $10.00 per hour worker earned $10.14 and rose to $10.18.

European Wages since 2008 saw their best days at 2.5% in 2015 and 2016 when Core Inflation hovered at 0.8 to 1.0%. Wage earners win when Wages trade above CPI as CPI is a price indicator and answers can Wage earners afford goods, food and essentials.

Core CPI prices at 102.06 trades just below first ever highs at 102.47. CPI reported last at 101.71. The 2% target at Core’s 102.06 translates to 2.0412 and 2.0342 for CPI. In 2008, Core CPI was 90.0 and 98.0 in 2014 when the ECB went negative. Took 6 years for Core to gain 8 points on the index from 2008 to 2014 and 4 points in 3 years. Core CPI currently trades far above CPI.
Real GDP in 2009 was minus 4%, 2% in 2010 and minus 1% in 2012. From 2011 to 2014, GDP as a percentage traded below USD and JPY. Since 2014 when the ECB went negative, GDP traded between USD and JPY. GDP last reported 0.6, 3.0% for USD and 1.0% for Japan. Europe now trades again below USD and JPY. The big line for GDP to cross is 2%.

 

Contributions to GDP since 2011 include mostly Financial and Insurance, Information and Communications. Next comes Professional, Scientific, Technical, Administrative and Support services.

GDP is far below Gross Fix Capital formations as investments peaked in 2015, the same time when Wages were at 2.5% and CPI at 0.8. Overall, Ireland leads the way in all categories of GDP from investments to low taxes while Greece remains the lowest GDP contributor and Germany remains competitive.

Exports beat Imports from 2009 to 2011, flat lined then skyrocketed in 2013 to current levels. Exports however in June 2017 at 3.9% were lower than + 6.2% in Imports. The Trade Surplus narrowed to 26.6 billion to 28.9. Germany leads the way with a Current Account Surplus and 3 year 2016 average at 8.1 billion.

The European balance sheet is lower than the FED, BOJ, BOE.

The purpose of negative interest rates was to stop the rate of growth on the positive side of the interest rate. As interest rates crossed from positive to negative, longer term interest rates naturally followed lower into negative territory.

A bottom on the zero side is known as minus 0.0 and the top side is located at + 0.0. Negative interest rates from overnight to longer term then created a tiny channel in which to operate. This means the overnight rate has been stuck at tiny ranges because it doesn’t have room to move. The interest rate curve actually flattened.

The current Deposit rate is minus 0.40 and not far from minus 0. The interest rate can’t go below minus 0.0. What minus 0.40 means is European interest rates are at the lowest possible depths. Draghi’s option to lower is almost impossible not only because of the lowest bound but also because a drop sends CHF, SEK, NOK and DKK interest rates directly on the minus 0.0 threshold.

To add QE to the negative scenario ensured by a sledge hammer effect that interest rates would remain at the lowest depths. As bank accounts failed to pay interest, its was natural to believe the path of money must travel into investments and force GDP growth higher. Negative interest rates strengthened Daghi’s hand on the QE front as he was able to operate inside the small corridors and ensure he wouldn’t see interest rates travel higher.

The intended investment money as well as QE went directly into money markets to trade interest rates for purposes to earn yields on monies. Volumes in money markets and interest rates skyrocketed as a result. The further result to negative interest rates and small corridors is Money is Circulation dropped dramatically which means money velocity remained stagnant. The same old yet dwindling supply of money is sloshed around daily to earn yield.

What flattened and what corridors mean is the distance from borrow to lend rates is extremely narrow. Assess what Wage earners receive when money is invested in a money market mutual fund. The overall purpose to go negative was a forced lending policy as the cost of money is cheap but the borrow side lacked ability. Plenty of lenders but few takers.

To understand the money Supply / demand and interest rate relationship see demand and supply curves and the shifts against interest rates and when QE is added or subtracted.

The exchange rate performed as expected in an interest drop scenario, it went lower from 1.37 to 1.03 over 4 interest rate cuts in a 3 year period.

The EUR/USD is now at 1.2000 due because its economic data slightly beat USD as both are in contention for best of the worst data. The Yellen Vs Draghi scenario is how to relieve the pressure on QE, return interest rates to market appropriate levels and bring the economy back to normal. Both are inside a colossal jam but born by their own false strategies.  Further to 1.2000 is Europe’s corridor is bumping against USD interest rate corridor.
Brian Twomey

View Khan for primer on Money Supply, Demand and Interest rates

 

 

 

 

 

 

11 Currency Pairs and Gold: Next 24 Hours

 

Ranges next 24 Hours

AUD/USD = 0.7968 to 0.7898

XAU/USD = 1311.72 to 1415.92

USD/JPY = 109.59 to 111.18

USD/CNH = 6.5649 to 6.6252

USD/SGD = 1.3504 to 1.3624

USD/ZAR = 12.9443 to 13.0665

USD/CHF = 0.9572 to 0.9657

USD/SEK = 7.9229 to 7.9964

USD/CAD = 1.2463 to 1.2574

EUR/USD = 1.1837 to 1.1943

GBP/USD = 1.2843 to 1.2958

USD/NOK = 7.8076 to 7.8794

 

Brian Twomey

8 Currency Pair Ranges: 24 Hours

Range breaks were seen today derived from off kilter GDP from USD.

USD/JPY — Yesterday 108.61 to 110.25, actual 109.57 to 110.42, off 17 pips. Tomorrow 109.66 to 111.11.

USD/CHF — Yesterday 0.9441 to 0.9531, actual 0.9540 to 0.9644, Tomorrow 0.9538 to 0.9617

GBP/USD — Yesterday 1.2874 to 1.2998, actual 1.2879 to 1.2937, Tomorrow 1.2893 to 1.2998

NZD/USD  — 0.7185 to 0.7243

AUD/USD –0.7879 to 0.7944

EUR/USD — Yesterday 1.1966 to 1.2078, actual 1.1983 to 1.1880. Tomorrow 1.1984 to 1.1886

USD/CAD — Yesterday 1.2467 to 1.2585, actual 1.2501 to 1.2637, off 52 pips. Morning trade was off by 48. Rare day to be this far off. We looked at target 1.2589 to 1.2614 with a range point at 1.2644. Yet the actual trade on the long paid 60 + pips then the short paid 35 pips so profit despite range break.

USD/SEK — 7.9282 to 7.9968

USD/NOK – 7.7526 to 7.8189

XAU/USD — 1302.62 to 1391.30

 

Brian Twomey

Trump, Fed, Gold

 

Yellen’s $60 billion promise to rescind the balance sheet monthly is derived from weekly M2 which sloshes around at roughly $52.9 billion per week. Currency in Circulation bounces at about $2 billion per week and $2 billion per week to Money Market Funds. Commercial banks are increasing at an average of $12 billion per week, $5 billion to deposits.

The new Yellen stimulus is raise a severely overbought Fed Funds rate to flood the system with cash. The M2 rising Weekly average at current $13,628.7 is up from $13,608.3 in July and $13,526.8 in May. The 4 Week average at current 13,619.6 is up from $13,569.9 in July and $13,492.6 in May. Loose money for a period in the future based on the last Fed statements means the balance sheet drops by $720 per year and after 5 years, the balance sheet remains at $2 trillion. A continuation of the 4 week average from a yearly perspective results in an increase in billions at $163, 435.2. Current averages presumes Fed Funds remain at current rates.

A raise in Fed Funds as stated would result in a new set of cash into the system. The fall in DXY and short term interest rates is explainable yet the rise in Gold is the stimulus result. If Yellen raises Fed Funds again then Gold will travel far higher.
Thr risk to the Gold price is Yellen is thankfully gone in February and the 8 year political term of Bernanke / Yellen’s damage to the economy may end. In hindsight, Praise praise to Yellen and Bernanke at confirmation hearings was the message to the future. Any policy the Democrats advocate means America must be against.

Trump and America’s economic opportunity will derive from 8 open positions total on the Fed Board. The true Trump test to answer is he a Teddy Roosevelt or Taft Republican will be known. Supply Sider appointments such as an Arthur Laffer or John Taylor would seal the conviction Trump is a Supply Sider and Taft Republican, last seen in Reagan. Supply Sider appointments would presume negative for Gold as Stimulus would be seriously addressed for the first time in 8 years.

What is Stimulus and its enormity is known by how the economic /political system operates. Under the 1st George Bush Administration from 1988 to 1992, the total economy was $1.2 trillion. That was the total budget. Of $1.2 trillion, $750 million was mandated by law. This money is untouchable and it goes to the programs intended as for example Agriculture, Social Security, Social Programs. The only way to use this money is to rescind the law. This can’t be done because the money is appropriated by Congress at the time of budget passage.

Of $1.2 trillion, $300 billion went to Defense by law. George Bush had $200 million leftover for Discretionary spending and this is pittlance as no damage can be done. But it also leaves the president as a figure head and powerless. This was the founders intention in Article 2, Section 1 to 4.

A budget increase comes by new and / or higher taxes. This is the Democrat dream. The previous way under Democrat presidents was slash the Defense budget and reroute the money to social programs. The current Defense budget is about $150 billion and not enough to safeguard America. Yet Democrats found their big winner by Democrat Congressional majorities to vote for $1 trillion in Stimulus then expanded to $4.4 trillion. Political power overrode economic prosperity.

Run stimulus against economic data and one would see the economic implications. Read Agency by Agency Regulations in the Federal Register and the evidence to shit down the private sector is crystal clear. 30,000 total regulations is 5,000 per year.
The Trump appointments to the Fed Board is most important to America’s future. Yet it decides also the question to Gold’s future.

Gold as XAU/USD in the next 24 hours will range from 1302.62 to 1403.50. The bottom is rising to support higher Gold.
Brian Twomey

10 Currency Pairs and Gold: 24 Hour Ranges

USD/CAD  =  Yesterday 1.2436 to 1.2554,  Actual 1.2441 to 1.2550, Range held,

Tomorrow 1.2467 to 1.2585.

 

 EUR/USD =  Yesterday 1.2040 to 1.1927,  Actual 1.2069 to 1.1948,
Tomorrow 1.1966 to 1.2078.
  USD/JPY =  Yesterday 108.65 to 110.26,  Actual 108.27 to 109.89, N Kores dropped JPY.
 Tomorrow 108.61 to 110.25.
  XAU/USD  = Yesterday 1300.41 to 1403.50, Range held.
 Tomorrow 1308.30 to 1428.57.  Yellen continues to raise Money Supply as I suspect, Gold goes much higher.
  AUD/USD = Yesterday 0.7918 to 0.7994, Range held.  Tomorrow = 0.7931 to 0.8007
 NZD/USD = Yesterday 0.7218 to 0.7287,  Actual  0.7217 to 0.7298. Tomorrow = 0.7230 to 0.7294
 USD/CHF = Yesterday = 0.9504 to 0.9595,  Actual 0.9428 to 0.9559, N. Korea dropped CHF. Tomorrow = 0.9441 to 0.9531
 USD/ZAR = Yesterday = 12.9878 to 13.1169, Actual 12.9451 to 13.1241, Tomorrow 12.9049 to 13.0346.
 GBP/USD = Yesterday = 1.2874 to 1.2998,  Actual 1.2915 to 1.2979, Tomorrow 1.2874 to 1.2998, Same as yesterday.
 USD/SEK = Tomorrow 7.8747 to 7.9530.
 USD/NOK = 7.6735 to 7.7501
  Brian Twomey

8 Currency Pairs and Gold: The 24 Hour Range

The Range in a financial instrument is far more important today than trade able levels and targets due to new structural changes. The Range became a built in component to the structure in order to contain prices. This created a wholesale adjustment to trading the market price. The adjustment factored on a far higher level however by prediction of the range in advance. The prediction factor means any financial instrument to stock indices, Yields, Commodities, Currencies. If a market price contains a number then its ranges are known long in advance. Ranges however mean different aspects to each financial instrument as some instruments contain wide ranges, other small ranges.

For examples to 40 currency pairs, commodities, yields and stock indices, hit my site as many range trades were posted in advance.
For the next 24 hours of trade, here’s a few currency pairs. The point to note again is no charts, no stops, no technical analysis as its not required. Its a far different view to prices as well as to the daily trade yet its imperative to know the exact range points. We don’t see or deal with losses or concepts as false breaks. Its not what we do here. Drill down focus is on the price and to capture every traded daily pip.

AUD/USD — 0.7918 to 0.7994. Today’s AUD held ranges.

XAU/USD Gold — 1300.41 to 1403.50. Today’s Gold held ranges.

EUR/USD — 1.2040 to 1.1927. Today’s EUR/USD range failed to hold but a range break is an opportune trade. EUR/USD broke 1.1866 Friday and again broke its range but shot 74 pips higher.

USD/JPY — 108.65 to 110.26. USD/JPY broke its range Friday by 20 pips yet held every other day.

USD/ZAR –12.9878 to 13.1169. ZAR held today.

GBP/USD — 1.2874 to 1.2998. GBP held today.

NZD/USD –0.7218 to 0.7287.

USD/CAD — 1.2436 to 1.2554.

USD/CHF — 0.9504 to 0.9595.

Silver today broke its ranges as well as WTI while Natural Gas and USD yields held its ranges.

 

Brian Twomey

Fed M2 and M1 Money Supply

 

 

What explains DXY’s drop and Queen Yellen’s regulatory comments is seen in the rise of the money supply. Despite 3 raises since December 2015, M1 and M2 continues to climb.

Current July M1 in billions Seasonally Adjusted is 3528.1 and 3531.4 Non Seasonally Adjusted. M2 current Seasonally Adjusted is 13,602.3 and Non Seasonally adjusted 13,548.70.

July 2016, M1 Seasonally Adjusted 3248.60 and Non Seasonally Adjusted 3249.4. Seasonally Adjusted M2 was 12,816.1 and Non Seasonally Adjusted 12,766.9.

December 2015, M1 Seasonally Adjusted was 3086.4 and 3140.5 Non Seasonally Adjusted. M2 Seasonally Adjusted 12,316.1 and Non Seasonally Adjusted 12,401.3.

July 2016 to July 2017 on an annual percent change as all data reports from the Fed, Seasonally Adjusted M1 grew + 8.7% and 5.6% for M2.

April 2017 to July 2017, M1 grew 11.4% and 4.9% for M2.

January to July 2017, M1 grew 7.9% and 5.1% for M2.

May to July 2017, M1 grew 9.3% and 4.7% for M2.

February to July 2017, M1 grew 9.3% and 5.1% for M2.

August 2016 to July 2017, M1 grew 8.0% and 5.6% for M2.

Currency in Circulation in billions March 2016 was 1359.5 and July 2017 is current 1486.40. Thrift institutions, mutual funds, credit and savings banks benefited as March 2016 balances went from in billions 239.50 to 271.40.

Commercial banks and Thrifts went from 517.20 to current 565.40.

Demand deposits from March 2016 to July 2017 went from 1281.80 to 1474.20.

Yellen’s Fed Funds raises became a stumulant to banks as they became flooded with cash. Since December 2015, M1 grew by 500 billion and 1286.2 billions for M2. Bank’s deposits grew by 192 billion in 4 months. Rather than sit idle, monies were put to work in money markets. A few points in interest rates is all it takes to profit and grow more money.

DXY’s drop, Gold’s rise and don’t change regulations to allow true price is now explainable. Don’t expect this to end well.

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD and Cross Pairs

 

GBP/USD Break points 1.2919 Vs 1.2845. The point at 1.2919 coincides to the 81 and 337 day average.

GBP/JPY Above break points 140.91, 142.19, 143.90, 149.50 and 149.32. Below oversold begins at 140.35 and 140.09. 24 hour Range = 140.15 to 141.33 and 142.09.

GBP/CHF. Watch this Pair as a big, big move is ahead. GBP/CHF is highly oversold. Break points above 1.2474 and 1.2531. GBP/CHF is below every average dating to 1999. 24 Hour Range = 1.2255 to 1.2358.

GBP/CAD 24 Hour Range 1.5997 to 1.6131. Wide ranging currency pair.

GBP/NZD Break points 1.7742 Vs 1.7906. 24 Hour Range = 1.7701 to 1.7850.  GBP/NZD is the granddaddy of widest ranges.

GBP/AUD. Break point above 1.6499. 24 Hour Range = 1.6154 to 1.6267.

 

Brian Twomey

 

EUR/USD Cross Pairs: Levels, Ranges, Targets

 

G10 most vital break points and 24 hour ranges are offered first then INR, NOK and SEK.

 

EUR/CHF = Break points below 1.1352, 1.1172, 1.1068, 1.1053 and 1.0874. Above breaks 1.1496 and 1.1584. Above 1.1584,must look to 1.1800’s. Intraday 5, 10 and 20 day = 1.1376, 1.1367 and 1.1375. 50 day = 1.1248. 24 hour range = 1.1338 to 1.1493.

EUR/CAD = Below 1.4874, 1.4755, 1.4657, 1.4594, 1.4568, 1.4542, 1.4509, 1.4495, 1.4429. Supports dating to 1999 are many and massive. Big break and short if seen is 1.4755. 24 hour range = 1.4807 to 1.5008.

EUR/NZD = massively overbought. Below 1.6328, 1.6060, 1.6328, 1.5936, 1.5911, 1.5890, 1.5803, 1.5741 then 1.5483. Above 1.6829 and 1.7546. 5 to 253 day averages support from 1.6278 to 1.5409. 24 Hour range = 1.6385, 1.6518 and 1.6608.

EUR/AUD = Best view is oversold. Below 1.4910, 1.4873, 1.4859, 1.4818, 1.4773, 1.4754. Above 1.5071, 1.5160, 1.5305, 1.5410, 1.5564, 1.5657, 1.5708, 1.5740. 24 Hour Range = 1.4953 to 1.5157.

EUR/GBP = Below 0.8954 and 0.8821. 24 Hour Range = 0.9210 to 0.9335.

EUR/INR = Below 75.17 and 74.15, 24 Hour Range = 75.97 to 77.0057

EUR/NOK = Above 9.3067 and 9.4096. 24 Hour Range = 9.2002 to 9.3253.

EUR/SEK = Above 9.5723. 24 Hour Range = 9.4511 to 9.5796.

Break points are averages dating from current to 1999. What will trade are 24 hour ranges.

 

Brian Twomey. Trade signals, consults, special pairs and any FX needs, feel free to contact anytime, brian@btwomey.com. I maintain 476 currency pairs, updated  daily and every pair is backed by Statistics upon Statistics.

Brian Twomey

 

USD/CAD

 

My long time friend Peter at Thomson Reuters and 45 straight years of FX, CAD technical assessment. My view is 24 hour ranges from 1.2426 to 1.2536. Peter is right as usual in highly oversold USD/CAD on many moving averages.

 

 

 Trader

USD/CAD oversold, shorts should square, look to buy next dip

Aug 25 4:23pm By Peter Wadkins

Break below the Aug 2nd 1.2533 low is bearish and re-sets targets at 1.2452 Aug 1 low and the 1.2414/33 cycle lows. Heavily oversold hourly 21-HMA Bollis & Keltner channels 1.2461 & 1.2455 (-3.0 & -2.5); Oversold daily Bollis & Keltner channels 1.2430 & 1.2463 (21-DMA -2.0/ Keltner -1.5) today’s low 1.2466. Shorts should be looking to book profits  around here, we’ll consider buying near cycle lows. (PW)

 

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USD Yields, S&P, Nasdaq Ranges

24 hour ranges.

10 year yield = 2.1581 to 2.1773

30 year yield = 2.7352 to 2.7597

2 year yield = 1.3312 to 1.3431

5 year yield = 1.7512 to 1.7667

S&P = 2430.0387 to 2758.6206

Nasdaq = 5794.88 to 5832.5205

 

Brian Twomey

 

Silver, Copper, WTI, Nat Gas

The premiere market mistake and object overall is to align apples to apples. I might show this point in EUR for example by alignment of all EUR currency pairs, yields, stock markets and Brent. Align apples to oranges will fail every time. The problem as I respectfully speak is it lies in understanding and knowledge of market structures. I read a few articles by a former and long time bank trader at fxstreet. I mention above points because even this guy has it awfully wrong. Traders are to busy looking for patterns, patterns and this isn’t the way for trading success. Another reminder to myself not to ever read these guys. I fall prey to belief someone will teach me something.

Ranges 24 hours. I’m respectfully exact

Silver = 16.9706 to 17.1342

Copper = 3.0237 to 3.0509

WTI = 47.6306 to 48.1637

Nat Gas = 2.8795 to 2.9053

DXY = 92.0076 to 93.3488.

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

20 Currency Pairs and GOLD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Despite Friday’s fluke, reported currency pair ranges  held for the most part. AUD violated its top by 11 pips, NZD 15. JPY and CHF violated bottoms by about 20 pips. Gold, GBP/USD and USD/CAD held perfectly. Normally CAD is the first to violate then JPY and CHF follow and in the order of CAD, JPY then CHF. The big winner in ranges was Gold as Gold hit its 1284 ish bottom then skyrocketed to high 1290’s. Gold’s top range was 1355 and the must break point to challenge 1355 was high 1290’s.

EUR/USD 1.1777 to 1.1866 held until Yellen spoke at  10:00 am EST then 1.1866 violated to 1.1874. Draghi spoke at 3:00 pm after the bond market closed but before new USD data and EUR flew to 1.1940. Under market structure, Yellen spoke on ECB time and Draghi rambled on USD time. EUR’s price was perfect overall. In hindsight, USD was slated to lose. Yellen tried 12:30 press conferences but switched to normal 2:00 as 12;30 is far to market volatility disruptive. I cannot stress the imperative to watch Yellen and Draghi under voodoo economics, market manipulations and price controls. The have your cake and eat it too strategy will cause great harm later.

The real assistance to Yellen and Draghi was Durable Goods at minus 6.8 and far out of sync. That was the EUR driver.

Below is 19 currency pair ranges and XAU/USD Gold. US stock market ranges will post today as well as USD bond yields and commodities. EUR at the bottom and CAD. CNH as well. NOK is absent and will include in future days.

USD/JPY = 108.72 to 110.26

AUD/USD transposed for readers = 0.7901 to 0.7971. USD/AUD 1.2656 to 1.2544.

XAU/USD = 1284.99 to 1379.31

USD/MXN = 17.5258 to 17.6971

USD/SGD = 1.3489 to 1.3610

USD/ZAR = 12.95 to 13.0729

USD/THB = 33.0847 to 33.4588

USD/CHF = 0.9521 to 0.9605

USD/CZK = 21.8654 to 22.0842

USD/SEK = 7.9539 to 8.0277

USD/PLN = 3.5626 to 3.5947

GBP/USD = 1.2830 to 1.2944

USD/HUF = 255.3070 to 260.5863

NZD/USD = 0.7208 to  0.7273

USD/HKD = 7.7823 to 7.8535

EUR/USD = 1.1831 to 1.1937

USD/CAD = 1.2426 to 1.2536

USD/DKK = 6.2325 to 6.2893

USD/ILS = 3.5691 to 3.6011. Israel Shekel Terrific currency pair

USD/CNH = 6.6108 to 6.6716

USD/TRY = 3.4274 to 3.4582

Ranges are good for 24 hours then the information becomes invalid.

 

Brian Twomey