Central Banks, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD

Fed and central bank meetings in days past met anytime without a public pre announcement schedule. Central bank meetings then were extremely vital to monitor because Interest rates were raised or lowered based on the vote of the board. Never an early warning to a possible raise, lower or remain on hold. Nor was the size of an adjustment known in advance. Quite common was 0.50 then 0.75.


The only advance warning for a trader was to run interest rate data to determine overbought and oversold for a possible interest rate direction or on hold. Its an exact science yesterday and into this modern trade day but the difference is today’s averages don’t move compared to days past.
Interest rates then were quoted as headline and discount rates. The terminology changed in the modern day to headline and overnight rates but the meaning is the exact same. The overnight rate remains a discount to headline.


Market reactions had to immediately price the new interest rate adjustment and moves were extraordinary. 2 and 300 pip EUR/USD moves were quite common. These were the days of true volatility but also the days when DXY didn’t exist as a means to measure EUR moves.


Year 2000 came along and central banks were mandated to meet every 6 weeks. Not much ever changes to central bank policy in 6 weeks time. We hear the same old taper / raise story meeting after meeting. What changed were market moves. Today’s 50 pip central bank moves lack comparison to 2 and 300 pip moves. A 100 pips move today is extraordinary and in one direction. This is called volatility today.


Then came Forward Guidance, the bits and pieces to possible policy or taper and interest rate changes released to the public. Here traders hang on to every word from central speakers with hope to place another piece to the jigsaw puzzle together so we know exactly what will happen at meetings.


GBP Vs EM


Most GBP pairs to EM are oversold/ overbought to neutral. Nothing stands out as any trades to rush or trade on this day.


GBPUSD for today 1.3816, 1.3833, 1.3840, 1.3851, 1.3861, 1.3874


Vs 1.3894, 1.3903, 1.3912, 1.3921, 1.3929, 1.3938, 1.3947 and 1.3956.

Don’t expect the BOE to offer anything other than this price series as the price series is derived from the BOE. The central banks inform everyday how to trade their currencies, meeting or no meeting.


Long at the lows and short at the tops to strategy. Watch tops at 1.3921 and 1.3929.


GBP/JPY watch for shorts at 153.05 and 153.20.


GBP/CHF higher on a break above 1.2638.


GBP/CAD at richter scale overbought and targets 1.7370 easily then 1.7348.


GBP/NZD oversold and targets 1.9783 easily.


GBP/AUD watch 1.8813 and shorts to target 1.8738.

Brian Twomey

QE, EURUSD, JPY, CAD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD

The traditional role of the Fed and central banks since inception is to add and subtract weekly money to the system. By addition and subtraction, the interest rate by trading a true market rate decides the proper level based on weekly money. Its truly market determined.


The 2008 crash came along and changed the traditional formula to QE then Congress passed policies to control the interest rate to never trade to zero. Naturally all central banks followed. By interest rate control, QE to infinity had a field day as central banks and the political system now controlled markets and economies. Both failed on a large scale as populations were the big losers and market movements died a horrible death.


Today, we ask the question taper or no taper, how much and when. The traditional question should be how much to raise and when. The interest rate and markets then decides how much money is required or not to add or subtract to the system.


By Keynesian QE, the true interest rate level is unknown except it won’t trade to 0 or negative. Rescind the QE policies and go back to the true market determined Austrian policies of traditional central bank roles to add or subtract weekly money then the true interest rate will be known and economies will again flourish as GDP and Inflation will find its rightful place rather than its misguided arrangement since 2008.


QE was all about control to markets and economies and this led to Obama and the dream for full control from the political system. The old Soviet model to takeover is currently in full force and working perfectly for Democrats. Once the takeover is complete then the implementation to the Soviet model switches to the Chinese cultural revolution on a grand 2.0 scale. The Chinese will tip their hat to the Democrats.


USD/JPY broke 1`09.40 and 109.12 as written Sunday and traded to 108.87 lows or 53 pips.
EUR/USD 1.1910 Sunday is now 1.1921 to break and trade higher. A rising MA and a rising price informs the break won’t come easy.


GBP/USD lower must break 1.3880 and any price above 1.3935 begins a short strategy and covers BOE and despite BOE balh blah as this is the value of central bank speak today and its not connected to the market price.


AUD/USD Next above levels are 0.7441 and 0.7472. Big line break below is located at 0.7380. Don’t look for 0.7200’s to trade anytime soon. Any price below 0.7380 begins a long only strategy. AUD for this day tops at 0.7437 then begins shorts.


NZD/USD broke vital 0.7049. For today, NZD threatens 0.7063, 0.7087 and 0.7092. Then begins shorts.


USD/CAD trades firmly above 1.2474. Watch today 1.2554 and 1.2561. Above begins shorts.

Brian Twomey

AUD Vs EM Trade Results

As written Sunday, not only was AUD oversold to the universe in the AUD space but AUD/EM was at richter scale oversold. We clocked 2353 pips in 8 trades yet due to severe oversold, the trades as mentioned were quite easy and profitable.


AUDUSD and all AUD pairs traveled higher to include AUD/JPY, AUD/CHF, AUD/CAD and sleepy AUD/NZD. Remember these words, AUD/CAD shorts were impossible. brought to you by the same short AUD/NZD last week. Incompetence knows no bounds these days and proliferates to Bloomberg.

When trading melded into entry and target = profits, the world of trading died a horrible death and its doubtful for its resurrection. Traders are locked into methods that no longer exist, no longer work as markets radically changed. Strategies must adjust to the new market arrangements or continued trouble will exist.

The world was short AUD for RBA and targeted levels mathematically impossible to achieve. Obviously short was wrong.

AUD/DKK


Long Anywhere or 4.6006 to target 4.6414
Result Low 4.5937, Highs 4.6388
From 4.6006 +382 Pips


AUD/CNY


Long 4.7404 and 4.7355 to target 4.7753.
Result Lows 4.7371, highs 4.7888
From 4.7404 +349 pips


AUD/BRL


AUD/BRL Close 3.8272
Long 3.7953 and 3.7803 to target 3.8554.
Result Lows 3.7668, Highs 3.8420
From 3.7803 +617 pips


AUD/HRK


Long Anywhere or 4.6408 to target 4.6856
Result Lows 4.6325, Highs 4.6800
From 4.6406 + 394 pips


AUD/MYR


Long Anywhere or 3.0967 to target 3.1133
Result Lows 3.0933, highs 3.1288
From 3.0967 to 3.1133 + 166 pips


AUD/PLN


Long Anywhere or 2.8266 to target 2.8558
Result 2.8176, highs 2.8440
From 2.8266 + 174 pips


AUD/RON


Long 3.0457 to target 3.0716
Result Lows 3.0357, highs 3.0668
From 3.0457 +211 pips


AUD/RUB


Long Anywhere or 53.53 and 53.46 to target 55.12.
Result Lows 53.51, highs 54.11 +60 pips


8 trades, 2 days, +2353 pips


Open trades: AUD/HUF, AUD/ZAR, both running profits


No stops, no charts, no Fibs, no monetary policy mumbo jumbo. No playing around

Brian Twomey

AUD Trades V EM : BRL, CNY, PLN, DKK, HUF, ZAR, RON

Not only is AUD/USD and AUD cross pairs oversold to G28 currencies but AUD Vs EM begins the week at exorbitant oversold and offers easy money trades for the week. Offered are AUD Vs EM trades. Nothing happening to AUD/TRY but against the vast majority of EM currencies, AUD is massively oversold and heading higher.


AUD/BRL Close 3.8272


Long 3.7953 and 3.7803 to target 3.8554.


AUD/CNY Close 4.7449


Long 4.7404 and 4.7355 to target 4.7753.


AUD/DKK Close 4.6018


Long Anywhere or 4.6006 to target 4.6414


AUD/HRK Close 4.6411


Long Anywhere or 4.6408 to target 4.6856


AUD/HUF Close 221.73


Long 221.79 to target 223.52


AUD/MYR Close 3.0990


Long Anywhere or 3.0967 to target 3.1133


AUD/PLN Close 2.8266


Long Anywhere or 2.8266 to target 2.8558


AUD/RON Close 3.0415


Long 3.0457 to target 3.0716


AUD/ZAR Close 10.7066


Long 10.6801 and 10.6701 to target 10.7401


AUD/RUB Close 53.71


Long Anywhere or 53.53 and 53.46 to target 55.12.

Brian Twomey

Inflation, EUR, GBP/AUD, USD/CAD, JPY, USD/EM

The smart and proper move for Powell is to raise interest rates however rather than raise rates, taper to bond purchases is the same arrangement to a raise as interest rates rise upon a restriction to money supplies. The current easy and loose money policy set up


GDP 6.5%
Inflation 5.39%
10Y 1.22
30Y 1.89
2Y 0.18
Fed Funds 0.10


1 divide Inflation = 0.18 at the 2 year yield and 1 divide GDP = 0.15. GDP and Inflation run closer to each other than seen by 2 numbers. If GDP fell further than 6.5 then Stagflation dominates as Inflation trades higher than GDP and interest rates.


As written to Inflation targets last year, traditional arrangement is GDP and overnight rates trade above Inflation rates. Lower goes Inflation then higher for interest rates and GDP.


From 2008 to current day, Inflation traded above Fed Funds and GDP for the vast majority of time traded below Inflation. Inflation since 2014 traded higher than GDP and Fed Funds. Rather than move the interest rate to rectify the Interest rate Vs GDP situation to allow both to trade higher and contain Inflation at lower levels, Stimulus is added. Add stimulus lowers interest rates and GDP.


GBP/AUD Vs EUR/AUD


GBP/AUD for the past 3 weeks, we traded many rounds 1.8700’s to 1.8500’s. Then 1.8500 decided to trade to overbought at 1.8900’s. At 1.8500’s was the vital break point number. Below 1.8500’s then long or short above. 1.8500’s was the untouchable number to trade.


EUR/AUD faced a similar situation at 1.6021 as shorts worked for 3 weeks above 1.6021.
Both GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD begin the week at richter scale overbought.


AUD/USD


AUD/USD not only trades above the 10 year average at 0.7325 and currently oversold but all AUD cross pairs are also oversold to include massively oversold AUD/CAD. Shorts to AUD/CAD are impossible as was AUD/NZD last week. Then the question why trade non movers AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD.


If AUD/USD remains oversold at the time of RBA then long is the only trade.


AUD is oversold Vs AUD/BRL, AUD/CNY, AUD/DKK, AUD/HRK, AUD/HUF, AUD/MYR, AUD/PLN, AUD/RON, AUD/RUB, AUD/ZAR, AUD/MXN

USD/JPY sits just above vital 109.40 and 109.12 at the 5 year average. Higher USD/JPY forces JPY cross pairs higher this week however JPY cross pairs lack ranges and won’t travel very far higher. Short only to JPY cross pairs remains the strategy.


CHF/JPY begins the week at massive overbought and targets easily lower 120.00’s while AUD/JPY starts at deeply oversold. Ranges severely restricted to GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY.
A USD/JPY break lower at 109.40 would force EUR/USD higher above 109.10 to then target much higher levels. USD/JPY break lower would finally force JPY cross pairs much lower.


USD/EM and USD/CAD


Last week’s USD/EM began the week deeply overbought and traded much lower as highlighted by EM trades. USD/CAD reached its overbought point and traded 183 pips lower to follow USD/EM. The average pip move as written for USD/EM last week was 235 pips and this was achieved.


USD/CAD serves an additional purpose to currency markets by a tracker and follower to USD/EM since its serves no meaning or purpose alongside USD/JPY and USD/CHF. Quite ironic this week to find USD/CAD ,USD/CHF and USD/JPY oversold however of USD/JPY breaks 109.40 then USD/JPY separates and becomes an outlier from USD/CHF and USD/CAD.


DXY begins the week at 92.09 and deeply oversold USD/CHF at 0.9051 or 158 pip spread.


EUR/GBP begins the week oversold and GBP/USD overbought and a correct relationship.


Oversold NZD/USD and cross pairs sit alongside the AUD/USD story as NZD/USD and cross pairs remain deeply oversold.


For the week, AUD/USD and cross pairs are the better trades than NZD. AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY and CHF/JPY are best JPY cross pairs. GBP/USD and cross pairs should easily outperform EUR/USD and cross pairs. AUD and GBP are best trades while GBP/AUD will outperform EUR/AUD.
GBP/NZD is the better trade to EUR/NZD while GBP/CHF beats AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF.


USD/EM


This week is offered trades to USD/RUB, USD/CNY, USD/MXN and USD/MYR. Most USD/EM currencies are oversold and sit at vital points. Not much happening here.
In a separate post, the above EM pairs for AUD will offer as trades since trades are easy and much profit exists.


USD/RUB Long Anywhere or 73.16 to target 73.75. Long above 73.83 to target 74.08. Short 74.08 to target 83.87.


USD/CNY Long 6.4592 and 6.4563 to target 6.4679. Long above 6.4708 to target 6.4795. Short 6.4795 to target 6.4737


USD/MXN Long Anywhere or 19.8754 to target 20.02. Long 20.04 to target 20.12. Short 20.12 to target 20.05.


USD/MYR Short 4.2251 4.2374 to target 4.1942.

Brian Twomey

18 Currency Pair Rankings

Due from 18 currency pairs traded every week for many, many years, trades are ranked from best to stand clear or not so good. Weekly rankings were instituted almost 2 years ago by trader request. Interesting is EUR/USD always receives top rankings and rarely receives a stand clear signal. A EUR/USD weekly trade is always available week to week.

The criteria for weekly trades are to trade the easiest trades for a minimum of 150 to 200 pips for each of 18 currency pairs. This may mean longs and shorts or shorts then long but always to continuously trade to profit. This takes much time, discipline and patience weekly to ensure no losses, always profit and to ensure entries and targets are perfect to near perfect.

Normally, weekly profits run from 1000 to 1500 ish pips per week but profits depend on movements or intended weekly moves. Many times, all weekly trades were posted long before the Sunday open for all to view and for all to view 1000 to 1500 pips banked by Friday.

The 6 GBP pairs are ranked separately due from the GBP/USD 2019 fall to 1.1900’s. GBP/USD every week fell flat to 1.1900’s without correction and this earned GBP’s separate rankings to maintain vigilance so to be on guard in case this ever happened again.

Favored trades this week: EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, AUD/CHF, EUR/JPY, NZD/USD, NZD/JPY, NZD/CHF, USD/CAD, CAD/JPY. 

Most weeks, rankings are fairly clear from best to stand clear while other weeks opinions take hold. USD/CAD this week isn’t a terrible trade yet USD/CAD ranges this week died and the position to CAD/JPY isn’t the best to location for both trades. Plus USD/CAD as the tracker and follower to USD/EM reveals USD/EM currencies are fairly neutral this week from deeply overbought last week. USD/CAD and CAD/JPY match the revelations to USD/EM.

My job is to ensure weekly profits, done in the easiest trade manner possible and no losses. This I do weekly but never to gamble especially with trader money. We take the sure shot to easiest and most profitable trades.

 GBP


Favored trades this week: GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF

GBP/CHF earned the distinction of last place for many, many weeks as GBP/CHF lost its range along with USD/CHF as the primary driver. The trades overall aren’t terrible but other GBP pairs take precedence to easy trades and most profits.

GBP/CAD as a highly neutral currency pair earns first to last place rankings week to week. GBP/CAD this week fits to USD/CAD last place and to USD/EM neutrality. It all makes sense when factored by currency pair coordination, connection and the matrix.

USD/EM

Most currency pairs I don’t like this week as the positions and locations are horrible. A few pairs are worth the trouble this week.

USD/RUB, USD/MXN, USD/CNY (onshore), USD/HRK, USD/MYR.

USD/TRY and USD/ZAR are deeply oversold and fell very far last week.

Brian Twomey

USD/JPY and Interest Rates

Every currency and market price on the planet trades and moves by an interest rate. Every pip traded and moves is associated to an interest rate. If EUR/USD trades for example from 1.1801 to 1.1802 is backed, associated and known by an interest rate. Its impossible for a market price to move without backing by an interest rate.


Interest rates are highly exact and highly specific however certain interest rates are more valuable to movements than others and its why a currency price contains minor and major points. Minor and major points are seen and known within the context of the total day trade price path.
However the total day trade price path to include targets, ranges, bottoms, tops and points in between is actually an exact moving average system but moving averages quite different than anything known or seen before. An interest rate moving moving average system for day trades cannot match to shorter term moving averages.


USD/JPY 5 day average is located for today’s day trade for example at 110.01 exactly. Mathematically the lows are located from 109.20, 109.47 and 109.74.


While 109.20, 109.47 and 109.74 fits to today’s day trade price path, the numbers are off to interest rates and won’t assist to profits, entries and targets. Nor will all 3 numbers serve as targets or entry points.


USD/JPY highs for today’s day trade is located from 110.27, 110.54 and 110.81. The numbers here are miles off today’s day trade price path and are completely irrelevant.


USD/JPY 20 day average today is located at 110.07 and lows mathematically are located at 109.23, 109.51 and 109.79. At 109.79 is perfectly accurate to interest rates and today’s day trade but 109.23 and109.51 are incorrect as any vital points nor as entries and targets.


USD/JPY above is located at 110.34, 110.62 and 110.90, All are miles off to day’s day trade by interest rates.


Most vital points to support and resistance once established and known holds for 24 hours. Hence the 24 hour trade. Support and resistance are exact and highly specific and established either at the China open or upon the release of interest rates by the particular nation. To not know or miss the vital support ad resistance points could blow an entire day trade.


The difference between USD/JPY and JPY/USD for day trades is 2 pips and not much difference at all yet each establishes the information for correct day trades. The 2 pip differential is fairly standard from currency pair to currency pair and to interest rates per nation which means no difference to interest rates from nation to nation to include positive and negative interest rates. Its a question of proper alignment as comparison.


5 vital numbers for today USD/JPY day trade are located from 109.04, 109.18, 109.37, 109.86 and 110.14. Note the giant difference to above math. The central banks changed the scales and the entire game to day trades however if a central bank traded today’s USD/JPY, all would employ my exact methods as I copied and figured the central bank trades.


USD nor JPY treasury yields fit to today nor any day trade. Yields don’t fit to weekly trades and must be excluded from consideration.


For a perfectly correct view to a wider range based on interest rates, the range is located from 108.57 to 110.60. For 110.60 by math standards is located at 110.54 and 110.81 so 110.54 and 110.81 are still off track.


The complete body of knowledge offered today is extraordinarily wide yet simplistic to understand and easy to trade correctly day trades.

Brian Twomey

AUD/NZD, EUR/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/AUD

As written Sunday for AUD/NZD: AUD/NZD begins the week deeply oversold as shorts are impossible. AUD/NZD closed at 1.0563 and longs are located at 1.0559 to target 1.0633 then 1.0648. for a quick 74 and 89 pips.


Lows achieved 1.0529 for 30 pips to shorts while longs so far achieved +64 pips from 1.0559 to 1.0623 highs. From 1.0529 then +84 pips. Targets failed to achieve yet AUD/NZD remains oversold as more upside will trade.


The recommendation on board for AUD/NZD was short to pay 30 pips to a deeply oversold currency price. Meanwhile GBP/NZD was also deeply oversold from its close last week at 1.9644 and traveled 420 pips higher. EUR/NZD was oversold from 1.6857 to Monday’s open and traded 208 pips higher to 1.7068.


Not only does currency pair trade selection matter but direction must establish before the trade. Gambler’s anonymous is always open with a 24/7 hotline to call. They should open a special department for currency analysts in order to speak immediately to a psychologist.

Or Better yet. FX street should open a comedy club and charge double for drinks as no shortage of talent exists.

Hi I’m Giggles and I lost traders money on AUD/NZD shorts. I shorted GBP/USD cause covid hospitalization were up. Long EUR/USD from 22 hour charts cause Fed Repo rates. Hi I’m a youtube comedian. RSI the real stupid indicator is at 80 and the price traveled higher.

USD/JPY watch those yields. USD/CAD traded lower yet Oil traveled higher. The formula is wrong. Hi I graduated from Gambler’s anonymous. and I’m here to tell my story. A new career is born.


EUR/AUD range today is located from 1.6139 to 1.5974 and not much difference from yesterday. GBP/AUD range is located from 1.8964 to 1.8772.


Note EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD last 3 days traded at top of its ranges. The current spread runs an enormous 2812 pips and should run minimum 2600 pips, a difference of 200 ish pips. That’s 200 pips and where shorts are located from a quick eyeball view.


EUR/USD as written, strategy is long until at least middle 1.1800’s to low 1.1900’s trade. EUR/USD traded to 1.1878 highs. EUR/USD’s moment of truth comes at 1.1908. Break then higher and a failure then 1.1780 and 1.1762.


GBP/CAD also adds to deeply overbought to wide rangers and should’ve included yesterday along with GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD.


The Fed’s Broad and Tri Party Collateral Repo rate traded 0.05 and ranged from 0.05 t0 0.15 If ever a worthless interest rate traded, its the Fed repo rate as this information won’t earn 1 pip to any currency pair traded on the planet.


USD.PLN achieved 3.8600’s target and +300 pips while USD/CNY achieved 6.4700.

Brian Twomey

USD Vs EM Trade Results

As written in commentary Sunday to USD V EM trades. USD/PLN remains open and severely overbought with a target at 3.8600’s. USD/RON completed and now its USD/MYR’s turn to perform. USD/HUF at 304.00’s remain fairly neutral as well as USD/DKK and USD/HRK while USD/ZAR remain overbought at 14.7400’s and USD/RON at 4.1600’s.


USD Vs USD/EM began the week deeply overbought and is the process this week to unwind from overbought status.

USD/TRY maintains deep oversold status this week and targets 8.6700’s.
Results: Highs 8.6280


USD/ZAR
Overbought USD/ZAR targets 14.7441 then 14.6967.
Results: Lows 14.7502 and 60 pips to target from 14.8500’s +1000 pips


USD/RON
USD/RON short 4.1855 targets 4.1633
Results: Highs 1.1840 to 1.1519 +207 pips to 1.1633


USD/DKK
USD/DKK Short 6.3228 and 6.3264 to target 6.2872
Results: 6.3212 to 6.2811 and +401 pips


USD/HRK
USD/KRK Short 6.4034 to target 6.3589
Results: 6.4079 to 6.3366 from 6.3589 then + 490 pips


USD/HUF
USD/HUF Short 306.27 to target 303.69
Results: 307.78 to 303.01 and to 303.69 +258 pips.

Brian Twomey

GBP/NZD VS EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD V EUR/AUD

As written yesterday, GBP/AUD range traded from 1.8752 and directly to 1.8850. The problem to 1.8850 is the dangerous market scenario as overbought traveled to further overbought.
GBP/AUD range today is located from 1.8946 to 1.8754 as the bottom rises by 2 pips and top by 96 pips.


EUR/AUD held its range from 1.6097 to 1.5933, lows at 1.6027 and traded overbought to overbought. EUR/AUD range today is located from 1.6131 to 1.5966 as the top rises by 34 pips and bottom rises by 33 pips.


The commonality to GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD is not only are both severely overbought and GBP/AUD is outperforming EUR/AUD but complementary wide range pairs GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD are also located in the overbought stratosphere. All 4 wide rangers decided to travel higher.


The better trades are GBP/NZD short Vs EUR/NZD and short GBP/AUD vs EUR/AUD. GBP/NZD targets 1.9788 while GBP/AUD targets 1.8637. All 4 wide ranger contain miles of downside.
The 3 week strategy to GBP/AUD was short from 1.8700’s to target every trade lower for 100 pips. The current trade is about the 6th round of shorts in 3 weeks.


A target is always identified first then an entry. A target is never wrong because its mathematically correct but this current round of shorts, we got caught by a corresponding mathematical entry.
Problem Trade Remedy


Problem trade mode to missed entry contains 3 options. The first is hold the trade to target, exit and profit. The 2nd option is add 1 lot and trade to entry for breakeven on the first lot. Add 1 lot means hold to 1.8754, breakeven and no losses. The 3rd option is hold 2 lots to target and double profits.


Never a loss in currency trading as a missed entry represents enormous opportunity.


GBP/USD lower must break 1.3833 and today’s bottom is located at 1.3807 and 1.3832.
USD/JPY sits oversold just above vital 109.40 and 1209.11. Any price today in upper 110.00’s is best short to target 110.21.


EUR/USD is fairly normal as longs are located from 1.1798 or below at 1.1771 to target 1.1825 and 1.1838.

Brian Twomey

GBP/AUD Vs EUR/AUD

32 AUD/EUR pips informs from the RBA today’s EUR/AUD day trade range is located from 1.6097 to 1.5933. At a current price of 1.6028 and today’s highs at 1.6048 , EUR/AUD day trade today is short to target 1.5933. AUD/USD informs from weekly and daily trades to long drops until AUD reaches at least middle 0.7400’s. AUD/EUR 32 pips forecasts exactly and correctly 100 ish EUR/AUD pips.


27 AUD/GBP pips informs from the RBA, today’s GBP/AUD range is located from 1.8752 to 1.8850. GBP/AUD 1.8752 and 1.8850 trades in the overbought stratosphere and also targets easily 100 pips lower to 1.8635 then 1.8575. AUD/GBP 27 pips informs easily 100 GBP/AUD pips to trade by calculator.


AUD/GBP for the past 3 weeks of day trades informs to GBP/AUD tops and short entries and targets to trade by calculator. While AUD/EUR offers EUR/AUD ranges, entries and targets, AUD/GBP serves its purpose currently as the GBP/AUD signal pair to EUR/AUD.


Short GBP/AUD 1.8752 corresponded to EUR/AUD short around 1.6046 to alert to short both EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD asnd take both pairs to 100 pip lower targets. EUR/AUD only contains 50 ish pip more upside potential to an already deeply overbought currency price. Easy short decision.


100 pip targets applied to Fibonacci as the traders greatest enemy then 76% offers 25 ish pips, 50 pips at 50% and maybe 75 pips at 38%. Cheated from not only pips on a solid day trade but GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD contains potential to trade to GBP/AUD 1.8500’s and EUR/AUD upper 1.5800’s for greater gains than 100 pips.


As written Sunday to weekly commentary, short GBP/AUD at or slightly above 1.8700’s and apply this strategy all week. Written on this day is short GBP/AUD at or slightly above 1.8700’s and apply this strategy all week. By this 2nd trade day, traders should’ve had at least 2 or 3 good short trades accomplished. By Friday, many more short trades will complete.


The greatest lesson if a lesson applies is to short overbought prices and long oversold. But never long an overbought price nor short oversold. Fibonacci represents the greatest theft of profits. Ask this question. When Central banks trade day, weekly or long term trades, is Fibonacci applied. Of course not and never considered to central bank red or blue books.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, USD/EM and AUD/NZD Oversold, JPY cross pairs lower

The positive aspect to currency prices is ranges are slowly expanding which means far better trades and profits are in development stages. The week begins for most G28 currencies in fairly neutral territory and translates to an average week to movements. USD in the EM space remains deeply overbought as EM markets continue to dictate USD movements for now week 2.


Holdouts to G28 currencies are oversold EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD. EUR/NZD enters problem status and this translates to range troubles while GBP/NZD sits just above vital 1.9615. Last week’s GBP/NZD closed at 1.9633 and just ahead of vital 1.9614 and traveled 173 pips to 1.9806.


AUD/NZD begins the week deeply oversold as shorts are impossible. AUD/NZD closed at 1.0563 and longs are located at 1.0559 to target 1.0633 then 1.0648. for a quick 74 and 89 pips.

AUD/NZD is rarely an active traded currency in our universe because its generally a dead mover however AUD/NZD is sufficiently oversold enough not to pass on the long trade.


Oversold EUR/USD and overbought USD/CHF represent the next G28 holdouts to the week. EUR/USD is more oversold than is USD/CHF overbought. While USD/CHF closed at 0.9185 and must break 0.9143 to trade lower, DXY closed 106 pips higher than USD/CHF at 92.12.


While DXY and USD/CHF traded and traveled together for the past month, a pip spread separation now exists between DXY and USD/CHF and a point to monitor closely over the next week. Rough resistance exists for DXY from 93.00’s to the 5 year average at 95.00’s and only 200 ish pips from current 92.00’s.


Overall EUR/USD maintains a long only strategy until middle to upper 1.1800’s trade. Then EUR/USD faces crucial decisions to break vital 1.1900’s to travel higher or a deep drop will occur to 1.1776. Overall EUR/USD remains stuck in 100 pip weekly ranges yet on the mend to wider ranges and better movements. This week will determine EUR/USD fate to how EUR/USD will trade in upcoming weeks.


JPY cross pair story remains the same as in past weeks, short only strategy for the next 500 pips. USD/JPY to trade lower must break 109.34 then 109.10. A market gift short if USD/JPY trades at 111.00 this week to target 110.17 on a break of 110.45.


GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD maintains a short only strategy.


USD Vs EM
As written and traded successfully last week, USD in the EM space for week 2 remains deeply overbought. USD/ZAR along with most EM pairs followed weekly represent market gifts short. The average move for USD represents right at 235 pips to exclude USD/ZAR and USD/TRY.


USD Vs EM trades


USD/TRY maintains deep oversold status this week and targets 8.6700’s.
overbought USD/ZAR targets 14.7441 then 14.6967.
USD/MYR short 4.2261 and 4.2290 targets 4.2116.


USD/PLN Short 3.8866 targets easily 3.8604.
USD/RON short 4.1855 targets 4.1633
USD/CNY short 6.4854 and 6.4870 to target 6.4776.


USD/DKK Short 6.3228 and 6.3264 to target 6.2872
USD/KRK Short 6.4034 to target 6.3589
USD/HUF Short 306.27 to target 303.69

Brian Twomey

EUR, ECB, GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD

USD deeply overbought and non USD currencies massive oversold and a wide divide between USD and Non. EUR/USD at 1.2000’s and DXY at 89.00’s was the reverse scenario as USD massive oversold Vs non USD richter scale overbought and a wide divide existed between both.


Trades went from Non USD shorts and USD longs to today’s, USD shorts and non USD longs.
As written yesterday, USD/PLN achieved 3.8700 lows for +300 pips, USD/CAD achieved 1.2579, USD/DKK runs + 100 pips, USD/RON +100 pips and USD/HRK +200 pips.


EM as USD contains a long way to drop as 2 and 300 pips is just the start to overall lower targets.
Weekly commentary, JPY cross pairs higher. JPY cross pairs traded higher and to maintain shorts on a short only strategy. CHF/JPY break 119.60 then much lower to trade to 118.00’s. JPY cross pair shots remain the gifts that keep on giving for toms of free money.


GBP/AUD for the week achieved 1.8561 lows from 1.8690’s and 1.8680’s. Today’s supports to break are located at 1.8590 then 1.8533 and 1.8476. Maintain shorts at any price in the vicinity of 1.8700’s to target 1.8590 then 1.8533.

Currently no such concept to GBP/AUD 1.9000’s exist. Its charlatan fantasy among many charlatan delusions. Impossible to take an overbought currency pair long or oversold pair short.


EUR/AUD is the better short trade. AUD/EUR informs today’s EUR/AUD range is located from 1.6090 to 1.5926 which means long at 1.5926 and short at 1.6090.


AUD/EUR 30 ish pips forecasts EUR/AUD 164. Go figure.


EUR/GBP broke 0.8612 and traded to 0.8572 for +40 pips while GBP/USD as written yesterday traded to mid 1.3700’s. GBP/USD higher must break 1.3895 and USD/CAD lower to break 1.2495.
Until breaks are seen in GBP/USD or USD/CAD then higher GBP/USD and lower USD/CAD represents a correction.


2 minutes after the ECB speaks then the information becomes worthless to trades as the message will be located in the market. Tomorrow’s ECB commentary isn’t worth a flip yet nor is today’s words.


EUR/USD 5 vital levels: 1.1736, 1.1752, 1.1767, 1.1826 and 1.1856. Short the highs and long the lows. Any price if seen above 1.1856 is a free money gift offered by mr market. Never expected and rarely seen but it just be made available.


What we see today is a day trade, 50 pips and 100 if traders and the ECB are feeling lucky.

Brin Twomey

Long EUR/USD, Short USD

Current USD is not only deeply overbought but its matched by deeply oversold Non USD to include EM. EUR/USD from 1.1700 targets low to high 1.1800 easily, GBP/USD 1.3700’s, AUD/USD target 0.7423, NZD/USD 0.7000’s.


Best trade opportunities are located in EM USD beginning with USD/PLN from 3.9000’s to target 400 pips lower to 1.8600’s, USD/DKK targets 6.2800’s from 6.3100’s , USD/RON targets 1.1500’s from 1.1800’s, USD/HRK targets 1.3400’s from 1.3900’s.


Overall EM as USD is overbought by easily 3 to 400 pips and this places G28 currencies oversold and overbought by 150 to 200 pips as targets. USD/CAD still contains a long way to drop to target 1.2578 while USD/JPY and USD/CHF are hardly worth a click as USD/CAD is a far beter trade, moves well and pays more.


As written, GBP/JPY completed 600 pips from 155.00’s, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY achieved 500 pips and 600 pips for CAD/JPY. CHF/JPY at low 119.00;s achieved 300 pips and contains another 400 pip drop to 115.00’s. Clearly we are nailing FX as is normally done throughout the years.


USD/JPY massive supports to travel lower are located at 109.32 and 109.10. Watch those yields. The 10 year yield yesterday rise 5 points while USD/JPY traded 39 pips. Hardly worth the effort or energy to pen and paper.


Massive overbought USD/CHF must break 0.9141 to travel lower and short only strategy.
EUR/AUD target 1.5800’s from current 1.6100’s while continuation to short GBP/AUD highs. Completed 4 GBP/AUD trades in the past 1 1/2 weeks and running nearly 400 pips and overall target to mid 1.8500’s.


GBP/USD higher when EUR/GBP breaks below 0.8612.


EUR/USD overall contains a long only strategy ECB or no ECB until at least mid 1.1800’s trade and no matter how long it takes. The ECB sees traders coming as they prepare their script. They just might offer 50 pips and in one direction, a dam day trade.


Overall, USD and non USD currencies trade at extremes and this will take time to correct.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and M3 Money Supplies

Thursday’s ECB is a question to the 35 day Maintenance period as mandated by all central banks to meet every 35 days or 6 weeks. The number 35 as a moving average is the mid point to the 20 and vital 50 day average.


Vital to the ECB message is stumulate or no stumulus, taper or no taper and overall a commentary to the ECB’s M3 money supplies. A Futures contract is a trade based on Money supplies as highlighted in 2017, 2018 and 2020. While most trade the currency spot price, the futures price is most influenced by the Futures price and the commonality to both is M3.


The ECB message Thursday is a trade in money supplies and the prime mover to not only EUR/USD by every currency on the planet.


EUR/USD yesterday traded 224, 941 contracts or 224,951 X $5,000 per contract = 1,124, 705, 000.


224,941 X 100,000 Euros per contract = 1,147, 199.00. The question to 1,147, 199.00 is what is the M3 money supply figure and is this figure to high or to low.


Traders pay 1,124, 705,000 to trade 1,147, 199.


A comparison from 2014 and 2017 to 2021


In May 2014, EUR/USD began its descent from 1.3900 while the money supply was 10 billion. By September 2014, EUR/USD traded 1,.27000’s. EUR/USD trades today at 1.1200’s Vs 11 billion money supply.


200,000 EUR/USD Futures contracts X $5,000 per contract = 1,000,000,000 billion or 1 billion.


200,000 EUR/USD contracts X 100,000 Euros per contract = 20,000,000,000 or 20 billion.


Traders paid 1 billion to trade 20 billion or 9 billion above M3. M2 at 10,876 billion means trading 2x to 20 billion. M1 at 7390 means trading almost 3 times to 20 billion.


Overall 200,000 + Contract Volume was quantified as far to high and what reinforces this concept is 20 billion is to high. Futures contracts should trade directly around current money supplies.


Eurozone M3 in 2014 was 10,108 billion. March 2017, M3 was 11,581 billion. In 3 years, M3 increased by 1,473 billion.


Since 2014, Eurozone’sM3 money supply exploded higher. In 2014, EUR/USD traded at 1.1200’s and achieved highs in 2021 to 1.2300’s as a result to money supply expansion but more so as 10 and 11 billion was miles below the Fed’s M3. The ECB’s goal as stated in 2017, 2018 nd 2020 was to meet M3 to the Fed. And this was achieved.

  The Trade

An overbought M3 money supply drops EUR/USD while oversold raises EUR/USD.


Current EUR/USD is at richter scale oversold and should trade to high 1.1800’s, low 1.1900’s to normalize.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and 5 year Averages

When EUR/USD broke its 5 year average at 1.1400’s in August 2020, EUR/USD rampaged 900 pips to achieve 1.2300’s highs 6 months later by February 2021 or 150 pips per month. Each month, EUR/USD traded the worst market condition by trading higher into overbought. EUR/USD contained 4 up monthly candles vs 2 monthly candles as a correction for 400 pips from 1.2000’s to 1.1600. Then EUR/USD exploded to 1.2300 high 3 months later.


As shown many times, EUR/USD as a highly neutral currency pair, always corrects not only to neutrality but full trends always reverse. From 1.2300 highs, EUR/USD corrected 600 pips in 6 months to 1.1700’s and now threatens to break below the 5 year average at current 1.1454.

EUR/USD from 1.2300 highs took 6 months to achieve 1.1700 lows while highs from 1.1400’s to 1.2300’s took 6 months.


Current EUR/USD sits at massive oversold as EUR/USD seasonality is well underway. EUR/USD general seasonality trends runs from up moves in May and June to run to December and January then EUR/USD drops to May/ June lows and begins its next seasonal up move.


Suspected seasonality trends are based on government budgets as the European Parliament usually passes budgets in November and December and possibly explains the 6 month down move by May of the next year as cheap Euros are spent to fund the government while a premium is placed on Euros from May to November as the remainder of government budgets are spent to fund government.


The question to currency markets is will 5 year averages break lower. Massive oversold AUD/USD’s 5 year average is located at 0.7326, NZD/USD at 0.6859.


GBP/USD’s 5 year average is located at 1.3039 and USD/CAD at 1.3085 while GBP/JPY 10 year is located at 149.11 and a big break and 79.93 for AUD/JPY’s 5 year average and 74.82 for NZD/JPY’s 5 year average.


GBP/CHF today broke below its 5 year average at 1.2613 and USD/JPY at 109.07. GBP/CHF break will assure further down moves for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY and all JPY cross pairs.


Overall non USD currencies as EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD are massive oversold while USD/CAD and EM as USD/EM are the opposite at massive overbought.


As written, USD/BRK achieved 5.1500′ s from 5.1110’s for a quick +500 pips.


If EUR/USD sits at deep oversold during ECB then long is the only trade strategy and the same scenario highlighted for NZD and RBNZ. What ECB says doesn’t matter as EUR contains only longs.

EUR/USD levels from 1.1454 then 1.1647, 1.1705, 1.1854, 1.1915, 1.1942, 1.2020, 1.2028 and 1.2085

Brian Twomey

USD/JPY V DXY, USD/CHF and Gold

As shown in the last post was the profound fallacy to the USD/JPY and USD Yield relationship for any and all USD/JPY trade consideration to entry and target. The same scenario exists for example to USD/JPY and Europe or UK yields which move in the opposite direction as USD yields. USD/JPY trade consideration is non existent to entry and target.

Yields are now and have been for quite some time a dead range trade instrument and killed off by no movements to interest rates, particularly overnight rates.

Such an abysmal failure to USD/JPY trade consideration to entry and target and Yields is seen before every traders eyes directly from the chart and easily factored and assessed. But here we have the leading FX Retail leaders to inform from the delusion of the chart in regards to USD/JPY and yields. USD/JPY goes green then yields go green and vice versa so it must be true. Yet nobody checked.

Maybe the concept was designed to misinform but this assumes market knowledge and this is not the case in today’s world of trading as +90% of traders are addicted to charts and indicators for all trade consideration.

My personal quest is to find traders to teach and learn market and fX concepts not already known to advance my own skills and knowledge. Found was another ephemeral concept to FX knowledge as charts and indicators rule the day.

USD/JPY Last Week

Monday = 109.76 to 110.39 or 63 pips

Tuesday = 110.19 to 110.65 or 46 pips

Wednesday 110.68 to 109.93 or 75 pips.

Thursday 109.71 to 110.09 or 38 pips

Friday 109.71 to 110.33 or 62 pips.

DXY

Monday = 92.11 to 92.41 or 30 pips

Tuesday 92.15 to 92.82 or 67 pips

Wednesday 92.83 to 92.35 or 48 pips

Thursday 92.26 to 92.68 or 42 pips

Friday 92.75 to 92.53 or 21 pips

USD/CHF

Monday 37 pips

Tuesday 55 pips

Wednesday 58 pips

Thursday 74 pips

Friday 37 pips.

USD/JPY Monday at 63 pips beat 37 pips USD/CHF and DXY 30 pips by almost 2 times.

Tuesday DXY 67 pips and USD/CHF 55 pips beat USD/JPY at 46 pips.

Wednesday USD/JPY 75 pips beat USD/CHF 58 and DXY 48

Thursday DXY 42 pips and USD/CHF 74 beat USD/JPY 38 pips.

Friday USD/JPY 62 pips beat DXY 21 and USD/CHF 37 pips.

USD/JPY outperformed USD/CHF and DXY Monday, Wednesday and Friday while DXY and USD/CHF outperformed USD/JPY Tuesday and Thursday.

USD/CHF outperformed DXY Monday by 7 pips, Wednesday by 10 pips, Thursday by 32 pips and Friday by 16 pips.

DXY outperformed USD/CHF Tuesday by 12 pips as the only time last week and outperformed USD/JPY Tuesday by 21 pips and Thursday by 4 pips.

USD/JPY moved overall total of 284 pips, DXY 208 pips and USD/CHF 261 pips.

The underperformer is DXY and overachiever USD/JPY.

Instead of yields and lead the trading public astray and to trade a tough concept as 2 financial instruments from 2 separate market instruments , the answer to exchange rates to trade correct entries and targets is by prediction from other exchange rates.

USD/JPY, USD/CHF and DXY is the story of an old FX concept and the great rotation. USD/JPY takes turns in relation to USD/CHF and DXY to out or underperform. An outperformance to DXY and USD/CHF equates to an underperformance to USD/JPY while an outperformance to USD/JPY leads to an underperformance to USD/CHF and DXY.

USD/CAD as the overachiever easily outperforms USD/JPY, USD/CHF and DXY by nearly 1/2. If DXY, USD/CHF or USD/JPY trades 50 pips for example, USD/CAD trades 100.

USD/CAD as the overachiever I suspect is more closely aligned to EM currencies such as USD/PLN rather than DXY, USD/CHF and USD/JPY. EM currencies as USD/Other Currency this week are at massive overbought along with USD/CAD. Nothing special exists to USD/CHF and USD/JPY this week yet rarely if ever is a good weekly trade seen on Monday. Those trades usually come Tuesday or Wednesday.

GOLD

Monday 18 pips

Tuesday 19 pips

Wednesday 25 pips

Thursday 14 pips

Friday 22 pips

Weekly range total 43 pips as Wednesday and Friday were best days as was the case for DXY and USD/CHF.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly

Overbought GBP/AUD correlates to GBP/USD at 5% and -91% to AUD/USD. Deeply oversold GBP/USD and AUD/USD Correlate together at a low +35%. GBP/AUD is correct to AUD/USD.

GBP/AUD 2 big lines below located at 1.8316 and 1.8320 while the top is located at 1.8950. Short is the only trade.

AUD/USD 5 year average approaches at 0.7326 from the close at 0.7391.

Oversold USD/JPY matches oversold to JPY cross pairs while USD/CHF sits dead above vital 0.9133. USD/CAD as opposite currency to USD/JPY and USD/CHF, begins the week miles overbought.

Gold traded 43 points last week from 1.1791.59 to 1835.01. Gold’s best trade day was Wednesday at 25 points, Friday ay 22 and 19 points Tuesday.

Week 2 to deep oversold EUR/USD as long is the only trade strategy as well as AUD/USD.

USD for EM is again deeply overbought beginning with USD/DKK, USD/HRK, USD/HUF is massive overbought, USD/MYR and USD/RON, Great short for USD/PLN,

USD/TRY and USD/ZAR are both deeply oversold while USD/CNY holds above vital 6.4656. Nothing special to USD/BRL as longs are located at 5.1071 and 5.0815 to target 5.1585 easily.

Trade strategy for above overbought pairs are short anywhere as entry doesn’t matter.

Note USD/CAD massive overbought follows USD for EM while USD/JPY and USD/CHF are trackers to DXY rather than EM.

Brian Twomey

USD/JPY and Yields

USD/JPY yesterday traded 43 pips from 110.20 to 110.63.

USD/JPY actually traded 0.43 pips. But each USD/JPY pip is worth 0.01 or 0.01 hundred. Factor 0.43 X 100 = 43 pips or 43.0

Yields from 2 to 30 year traded higher by 0.08 points or 0.08 hundred. Factor 0.08 X 100 = 8 points or 8.0

Yields traded higher in unison but this isn’t always the case. The 2 year yield may rise but 20 or 30 yield may fall or vice versa. These days of trading, unison to yields appears common practice.

2 year yield = 0.2270 to 0.2584 or 3 points at 0.03 then 0.03 X 100 = 3 points or 3.0

Note 43 USD/JPY and 3 points to 2 year yields.

3 Year Yield = 0.4202 to 0.4766 or 0.05 points then 0.05 X 100 = 5 points or 5.0

5 Year yield = 0.7847 to 0.8476 or 0.06 points then 0.06 X 100 = 6 points or 6.0

7 year yield = 1.1026 to 1.1656 or 0.06 points then 0.06 X 100 = 6 points or 6.0

10 year yield = 1.3480 to 1.4180 or 0.07 points then 0.07 X 100 = 7 points or 7.0

20 year Yield 1.8866 to 1.9705 or 0.08 points then 0.08 X 100 = 8 points or 8.0 points

30 year yield = 1.960 to 2.049 or 0.08 points then 0.08 X 100 = 8 points or 8.0 points

Basis Points

USD/JPY at 43 pips may easily state 43 basis points or 43% by 43 divide by 100 = 0.43 or 43%.

Yields may also factor to Basis points then to percentages.

The 2 year yield moved 3 points then divide by 100 = 3%

The 3 year yield moved 5 points then divide by 100 = 5%

The 5 Year yield moved 6 points then divide by 100 = 6%

The 7 year yield moved 6 points then divide by 100 = 6%

The 10 year Yield moved 7 points then divide by 100 = 7%

The 20 year yield moved 8 points then divide by 100 = 8%

The 30 year yield moved 8 points then divide by 100 = 8%.

USD/JPY moved 43% and the highest yield at the 20 and 30 year explains 8% of USD/JPY’s 43%.

USD/JPY at 43 pips accounts for 8 points at the highest 20 and 30 year yield moves.

What about the remainder 35 pips. The extra 35 pips doesn’t explain, account nor factor to yields for a trade, an entry, target or anything remotely close to USD/JPY pips, points or percentages.

Yet another bill of goods sold to the trading public.

For interested see this site for Yield Methodologies and tons of more articles to yields both from a single nation and comparison to other nations as I beat this topic to a pulp.

As I realized from those articles and research long ago, yields to currency prices is a crock of garbage and it doesn’t work. The old days, pre 2016 then was a different story.

After 2016, yields de coupled from currency prices as nations looked inward to revise interest rates and this contained a drastic effect to nation yields and to comparison from nation to nation yields.

Take USD/CAD for example. Not much difference ever existed from Canada and US yields and this was the beauty to long and short trades for USD/CAD.

if for example, USD 2 or 3 year yields cross above CAD 2 or 3 year yields then long. If US 2 or 3 year yield crossed below CAD 2 or 3 year yield then short.

Then apply the methods above to factor the target from percentages or points. Or use monthly or daily averages to yields then factor yields to the currency price by note of the support or resistance points.

Today and trading is much different for me personally as past years of research led to streamline to trades by using only methods that work. I eliminated the bad that doesn’t work then figured the methods that did work and worked it to my trade advantage.

May sound easy but I assure all, its not easy at all however in the end, I made it easy as I understand what I didn’t know before.

Brian Twomey

CHF/JPY VS USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD

CHF/JPY is derived by USD/JPY divide USD/CHF. The past 3 month range 122.77 to 118.84 or 393 pips. USD/JPY past 3 month range 108.33 to 111.65 or 332 pips.

CHF/JPY current 120.46 and USD/JPY 110.32 or 1014 pip spread. My own research effort here.

Correlations

USD/JPY Vs CHF/JPY +90%, USD/JPY Vs USD/CAD -56%, USD/JPY Vs USD/CHF +81%

USD/CHF Vs CHF/JPY +50%, USD/CHF Vs USD/CAD -0.03%

USD/CAD Vs CHF/JPY -82%

USD/CAD continues to trade opposite USD/CHF, USD/JPY and CHF/JPY. USD/CAD is consistent to all JPY cross pairs as a long in USD/CAD means shorts to JPY cross pairs and shorts to USD/CAD means long to JPY cross pairs.

CHF/JPY and USD/JPY +90% Correlations means USD/JPY and CHF/JPY are the exact same pairs and represent double trades for longs and shorts.

USD/CAD is a great currency pair and operates correctly. USD/CHF and USD/JPY lack to ranges as ranges are short and severely compressed. USD/CHF on a long term basis is actually oversold with a 0.9303 target from current 0.9158.

USD/JPY and CHF/JPY are clear shorts with a short only strategy as all averages for both pairs point uniformly lower.

CHF/JPY averages as follows: 115.90, 114.62, 111.96 and 109.47

USD/JPY averages: 108.53, 108.87, 106.75 and 106.04.

Quadrants

Both USD/JPY and CHF/JPY trade in the 1st quadrant

1 to 4 Quadrant correlations: +43%, +30%, +87% and +79%. This means averages responsible for USD/JPY and CHF/JPY moves are USD/JPY 106.75 and 106.04 Vs CHF/JPY 111.96 and 109.47. Both CHF/JPY and USD/JPY are overbought.

USD/CHF Vs DXY

USD/CHF 0.9161 current Vs DXY 92.34 or 0.9234 or 73 pip differential

USD/JPY Vs DXY 1802 pip differential.

CHF/JPY

Lower must break 119.78 then watch out below. . Overall target is 115.32. Must breaks lower at 118.83, 117.20 and 116.45.

CHF/JPY day trade bottom today 120.02 then higher.

USD/JPY

Lower must break 109.39, 109.07, 108.53 and 108.87. Longer range target is 109.14 and just the start to much lower.

USD/JPY day trade bottom 109.81 then higher.

I seem to be running long term views as 14 currency pairs are now complete and `14 more to go if I run all 28 currencies.

Brian Twomey