Biden, Close Prices, Next Week Strategy

As Biden continues where America’s bummner Obama leftoff in 2016 to advance a bankrupt agenda under obstinate false ideals, the road ahead for America will be fraught with massive spending in the name of climate change and stimulus. And given a Democrat congress for at least Biden’s first two years, Biden must move fast to spend the money as 2022 could see the Democrats gone from congressional majorities.


America’s GDP currently stands at $22 trillion and Biden proposes to spend about $2 trillion for stimulus, a horrible precedent set by Trump. Now we have 20 for now as a downside to GDP strips away $22 trillion.


Between Climate change spending proposals at $10 trillion, free college, free money to immigrants and free everything, America’s GDP will see a remainder of $8 trillion.
The American public will see a forced conscription to assist to spending by higher taxes
Biden will ride free and unaccountable to not only spending but the disasters ahead as the wizard won’t be seen nor will he ever have to answer to anybody, particularly the American public. Between the news media and big tech, Biden will be shielded to hold news conferences.


The recommended read is Jan Kozak “And Not a Shot was Fired”. It reveals the Soviet Union plans to the takeover of Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland and Central America in the 1980’s. Today’s plans not only haven’t changed from the Soviet model but the exact replica is followed today.


Close Prices


GBP/USD looking for under 1.3615, ultimately at 1.3583. Means long then short for next week.
GBP/NZD. Close is irrelevant because EUR/NZD is the better trade for next week and highly doubtful to even consider GBP/NZD for next week.
GBP/JPY. Close at 141.04 or under. Any higher then short for next week.


EUR/USD close right around 1.2137 and short or next week.
AUD/USD. Close under 0.7725, ultimately 0.7694.
NZD/USD. Close under 0.7216 to 0.7190.


EUR/AUD. Doesn’t matter to the close. Long from anywhere next week.
USD/CAD. Under 1.2710 then long for next week. Clos 1.2684.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD: The January Indicator

In EUR/USD 22 year history since 1999 to include 2021, EUR/USD dropped for January overall 14 months and 8 months were up. January 2019 was a question mark due to a Doji candle, The current Januray of 2021 appears to end with a red down candle.


From 2008, down months represent 8 times for January and 6 up months while 1999 to 2008 experienced 7 down months to 3 up months.


Overall since `1999, Down months last 1.75 months to 0.57 up months.


Traditional January represents a seasonal cycle as down months occur from January to May then begins the uptrend from May to December.

To accurately determine the exact pip change to tops and bottoms, below is a re creation of a larger study from 2013 and done in 2019. Know the peaks and valleys then traders know not only the exact pip a down or up change will occur but the duration of the trade to its target.


EURUSD Trends/Turns: 2013 -2015 and 2018 -2019


Posted on June 30, 2019


To forecast tops and bottoms, below is the methodology and it was employed to accurately call the EUR/USD top at 1.3900’s.


This post is a re creation of the 2013 – 2015 view to Peaks and troughs, tops and bottoms for daily, weekly and monthly charts. The difference today is the view was assessed from 6/29/18 to 6/28/19 for a 1 year inspection.


The character of the EUR on any chart since inception hasn’t changed as EUR/USD is traditionally and invented to trade as a highly neutral currency pair and rarely falls outside of its neutrality. Any deviation to neutrality always corrects to assure EUR trades neutral.


Neutrality for EUR/USD means an equal number of up and down days, weeks and months match almost perfectly. New highs and lows never assumes an automatic continuation on its price path.

The question for traders must be how many peaks and valleys were involved in the price move to determine if a continuation or retrace will develop.


How many peaks and valleys may or may not mean the EUR trades within a few pips to its previous highs and lows. The EUR contains a distinct habit to bring this question to the brink.


The EUR/USD has radically changed from its 2013 -2015 trading days as 2013 -2015 afforded far wider ranges, trends and trade opportunities. The EUR/USD from 2018 to 2019 revealed daily and weekly trend / turns occurs much quicker due to depressed ranges and trends. Peaks and valleys were shortened by 1/2 in 2018 -2019 from its 2013 -2015 counterpart. Traders must be quick on the trigger to catch the move.

Daily 2013-2015 Vs 2018 -2019.


In 2013 -2015 for example, 71 down days total was recorded with 4 significant peaks. Down days turned every 17.75 days on average. A total of 74 up days saw 5 significant peaks with an average turn every 14.8 days.


If daily up days to down days are viewed, the EUR/USD trend/peaks turn every 16.1 days total.
In contrast, the 2018 -2019 EUR/USD daily up and down days are equally matched by 24 up days to 24 down days. The 3 daily Doji indecision chart candles appears for a reason.

2018 -2019


At 123 up days recorded 24 peaks for an up trend /turn every 5.12 weeks while 126 down days recorded 24 peaks for a trend /turn every 5.25 weeks. Up days Vs down days factored to a trend/turn every 5.18 days. Up to down days and trend/turn radically changed to shorter terms from its 2013 -2015 counterpart at 14 and 17 days by at least 3 times.


EUR/USD averages from 24 up days factors to 1.1500 and a 1.1489 Median. Interesting numbers as the current 5 year average is located at 1.1476. EUR/USD average for down days factors to 1.1312 and 1.1280 as a Median.


Weekly


2013 -2015 Vs 2018 -2019


From 2013 -2015, a significant up peak occurred every 4.5 weeks on average while a significant down peak occurred every 4.33 weeks on average. A significant weekly peak occurred for trend / turn in up vs down weeks every 4.4 weeks on average and fairly consistent with the 16.1 daily peak turn.


The 2013 -2015 Up data: Up weeks recorded: 4 weeks, 1 peak, 5 weeks, 1 peak, 5 weeks, 1 peak, 4 weeks, 1 peak. Notice the 5 / 4 relationship. A significant peak occurred every 4.5 weeks on average,


The 2013 -2015 down data: down weeks recorded: 8 weeks, 1 peak, 2 weeks, 1 peak, 3 weeks, 1 peak. A significant down peak occurred every 4.33 weeks on average.
2018 -2019.


For 2018 -2019, in 27 up weeks recorded 11 peaks or trend / turn every 6.75 weeks. Up week ranges lasted an extra 2.25 weeks Vs its 2013 -2015 period.


In 24 down weeks recorded 10 peaks for a trend turn every 2.4 weeks. A trend /turn in up v Down weeks occurs every 4.57 weeks. Up Vs down week ranges extended by a negligent 0.17 weeks. Overall up vs down week trends /turns shortened by 1/2 vs its 2013 -2015 counterparts. The answer is revealed by up trends at 6.75 vs Down weeks at 2.4. This deviation is rarely seen.


Weekly EUR/USD factors an up average at 1.1501 and down average at 1.1229.
Monthly.


Up months factors as 4 up months and 3 peaks for an up trend/turn every 1.33 months while 6 down months at 3 peaks equates to 2.0. Up Vs down trend /turns every 1.66 months.


Monthly 2000 – 2015


From the Oct 2000 bottom at 0.8206 to present July / August 2015 period.


Data


Monthly up months with a significant peak recorded, 3 months, 1 peak, 3 months, 1 peak, 16 months, 1 peak, 5 months, 1 peak, 8 months, 1 peak, 3 months, 1 peak, 29 months, 1 peak, 13 months, 1 peak, 12 months, 1 peak, 2 months, 1 peak, 6 months, 1 peak.


Overall 98 months Vs 11 peaks to include the EUR trend from 2003 to 2006 factors to 8.90 up months.


Monthly down months recorded: 5 months, 1 peak, 4 months, 1 peak, 3 months, 1 peak, 3 months, 1 peak, 6 months, 1 peak, 3 months, 1 peak, 6 months, 1 peak, 7 months, 1 peak, 8 months, 1 peak, 5 months, 1 peak.


50 months vs 10 peaks factors as a trend /turn every 5 months. Overall up vs down trend /Turn every 6.95 months.


Current EUR/USD


The EUR/USD topped at 1.1341 from 1.1183 in 5 days then bolted from 1.1183 to 1.1411 highs in 5 days. If the past is prologue then the EUR/USD contains 5 down days ahead.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, GBP, AUD and EM

Wide ranges between most significant averages in currency market prices and most of 28 currency pairs are affected.


Few examples.
AUD/USD 0.7821 vs 0.7498 or 323 Pips. The bottom average is rising, ranges are compressing by the day and a showdown is on the way. AUD either breaks 0.7821 and travels higher or breaks below the lower average to trade 0.7344 then 0.7308 and lower.
EUR/USD. 1.2119 1.2020 and 1.2038 Vs 1.2630. From 1,2119 and 1. 2630 or 511 pips. Main Average line at 1.2038 is rising to offer later support to 1.2119.


USD/CAD 1.2586 Vs 1.2924 and 1.2976 or 390 pips.


GBP/USD 1.3351 and 1.3360 Vs 1.3832. Main line at 1.3351 is rising. Showdown on the way.
GBP/JPY. Larger range 139.25 vs 144.31 and 146.14. Shorter range 139.25 Vs 142.90 or 365 pips. GBP/JPY is oddball pair as levels are failrly stable however bottom 139.25 is sloowly rising. GBP/USD will lead the way.


Currency prices are trading in wide ranges however the ranges are compressing and a big showdown is on the way for all 28 currencies but not anytime soon. This may take many months as main average lines are only rising by like 20 pips per day. Inside the ranges is wide open trading and good trades.


No different for EM. Ranges are extremely wide.


USD/PLN 3.8125 Vs 3.5409 or 2716 pips. Higher must break 3.7434 to target 3.7900’s easily.
USD/RON 4.1062 Vs 3.7777 or 3285 pips. USD/RON must break 4.0452 to target 4.1124. In the way is 4.1062. Ron currently trades 4.0085.


USD/MYR is USD/RON’s kissing cousin currency pair and ranges from 4.1630 3.7337 or 4293 pips. Extreme ranges for a dead mover currency. USD/MYR must break 4.0853 to mover higher. Currently trades deep oversold 4.0084. RON is clearly the better currency pair.


USD/HUF. Well supported at 284.98 from current highly neutral position at 296.08. Higher, USD/HUF must break 298.37 to target 300.35 easily.


USD/BRL Well supported at 3.8954 from current 5.2994. USD/BRL must break 5.3398 to travel higher to target 5.3736. USD/BRL at 5.2994 sits at fairly neutral. Longer to medium term, USD/BRL remains deeply overbought and heading much lower.

Watch Richter scale oversold EUR/GBP. Overall target 0.8996. Supported at the 5 year average at 0.8705. Today looking for 0.8936.

Watch USD/JPY 104,.32 big break for higher. This is a rising line so this break will take effort.

Brian Twomey

RBNZ Yield Curve for NZD

Its been 6 years running the day trade interest rate model. Its an exact day trade system because of the transposition of interest rates to currency prices. Its the exact model used by central banks to day trade their own currencies. Daily Profits are not only guaranteed but entries and targets are perfect. And its very simple to trade. Only requirement is enter a few interest rates twice daily. Anyone can do it. A child of 12 can do it and profit.

I’ve never seen an exact line to match my model and wondered for 6 years what the lines looked like. RBNZ contains the best proximity.

Top of the line is the 10 year yield and its driving NZD. The 2 and 10 yields are running 0.85 and +15 basis points from 0.70 December 29. The 10 year yield ran +12 basis point from current 1.10 from 0.98.

Overall NZD driver is the 10 year yield and 2 and 10 spread.

I month view

NZ Government bond yield curve

Brian Twomey

GOLD Vs USD/BRL, USD/RON, USD/PLN

Shown yesterday was the trap of charts as EUR/USD Vs Gold. A trade existed but a minor trade with small profits by trading the crossovers. The EUR/USD side represented the same exact chart picture as all 28 of the G10 currencies. Which means don’t trade Gold with the G28 currencies.

The small detail was Gold yesterday and today were shown as Grams. The difference between Gold Grams and the actual traded Gold price shown today by the incompetent traders is the conversion 31.103.

Todays Gold Gram until 10:00 am EST at the Gold Fix is 0.016741. Which means 31.103 divide 0.016741 = 1857.89 Gold price.

The difference? Nothing. A minor meaningless number is the difference.

Best Gold Signal trade for crossovers is found in the EM currencies as USD/BRL, USD/PLN, USD/RON, USD/HUF. And the best is USD/BRL and USD/RON while USD/PLN and USD/HUF are weak and late to the game signals.

January 1 to 10

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How about January 1 to 10 for EUR/BRL, EUR/RON, EUR/PLN and EUR/HUF. Pretty much same chart

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Brian Twomey

Gonçalo Moreira, CMT

Too bad for Goncalo because he’s really a nice guy and he’s been around for a good 10 years. Goncalo is responsible for fxstreet’s signal service and the massive upon massive losses since inception. As featured here many times, fxstreet’s signal service should’ve closed down long ago.

But fxstreet long ago left the objective to become a good site for all skill levels of traders and joined the criminal enterprise as the Don Corleone of all the crooked, loser and big name traders of our day such as Boris Schloooosberg, Kathy Liens crooked, I’m always wrong Yohay, Joseph “I’m Stupid” Trevasani. And the list goes on.

I can just imagine the many accounts now bankrupt. But Fxstreet readers are new traders predominantly so every 3 or 6 months those new traders go broke then a new set of traders come, join the service then go bankrupt. And the cycle repeats. The subscriber list remains a constant with the same results.

Francesc could care less. As long as the revenue comes in then life is good. Same as all trade services.

Consistent with today’s stupidity to traders and trade services, Goncalo wants to teach traders actionable trade ideas. He wants to show how to find good entries. Forget comedy central, watch the hypocrisy.

https://www.fxstreet.com/events/actionable-trade-ideas-202101131200

These people can kiss my ass on both cheeks

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD Vs GOLD or XAU/USD

EUR/USD Vs XAU/USD Or GOLD

December 7 2020

EUR/USD and Gold cross. However EUR/USD can’t trade alongside GOLD. Either/ or must separate

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December 14, no more cross danger will Rogers

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December 17, the cross

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December 19, Cross widened

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December 28, Gold Outperforms

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Jan 4, Gold Widens

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Jan7 Gold widens further

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Today

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Brian Twomey

EUR/JPY VS USD/CAD Day 2

As mentioned yesterday, EUR/JPY and USD/CAD charted failed to reveal the formal crossover. Yet the cross occurred. The result to trade by charts is a late entry and missed profits. Its not what is earned in trading, its what was missed.


As further mentioned yesterday, the ECB at 10 am EST would reveal the cross over. This happened exactly as stated. See below.


Prices at yesterday’s ECB was USD/CAD 1.2785 and 126.76 for EUR/JPY. We can easily factor this crossover but the problem is the cross already happened. What we have as of yesterday at ECB 10 am is a wider move for both USD/CAD and EUR/JPY. Which means more pofits from yesterday.


A wider move means an average of 54 pips to the spread Vs yesterday at 9 pips. Add 54 pips to 1.2785 and the result is 1.2839. Yesterday CAD traded to 1.2834 or 49 pips.
EUR/JPY traded to lows at 126.53 or 23 pips and shy of its 54 intended target at 125.99. The alert is USD/CAD is outperforming EUR/JPY.


Yesterday’s cross for USD/CAD profited from 1.2693 at +72 pips. Now add another 49 and the profit becomes +121 for the week and done in 2 days.


EUR/JPY yesterday morning profited from 126.93 + 17 pips and + 40 pips for the week.
Total profits for USD/CAD and EUR/JPY + 161 pips in 2 days.


The alert is USD/CAD is outperforming EUR/JPY by many pips.


To view the entirety of the actual cross is done in 2 ways. By the weekly trade or by the daily trade by interest rates. Both are exact.


USD/CAD Weekly Trade


Long 1.2664 and 1.2651 to target 1.2801. Target achieved however lows traded to 1.2694 which means the trade profit already was +107 pips. And we did nothing to earn the money. And we have 17 more pairs to trade. If each pair earned just 100 pips then the profit on 18 currencies is 1800 pips. And we did nothing to earn the money.


Next we view day trades especially as day trades earns more money to add to the 107 pips.
Yesterday USD/CAD tops at 1.2819 and achieved. Today’s highs 1.2830 on a break at 1.2797.


EUR/JPY Yesterday


Lows from Interest rates 126.24, 126.41 and 126.56. EUR/JPY traded to 126.53.
Today. Lows 126.34, 126.19 and 126.02. The bottom dropped 22 pips.

Day trades are perfect and exact because interest rates are transposed to exchange rates. Weekly trades are exact because its all about MA’s.

Click to enlarge

Brian Twomey

USD/BRL, USD/PLN, USD/RON, USD/MYR Crossovers

Here’s where life gets interesting. USD/BRL is always top because it trades with a 5 handle. Current 5.4181.

USD/PLN. Normally trades with a 3 or 4 handle. Current 3.7241.

USD/RON and USD/MYR trade with a 3 or 4 handle. USD/RON current 4.0024

USD/MYR. Current 4.0505

USD/RON and USD/MYR currently are kissing cousins and ready for a crossover break out.

USD/PLN. Normally always assumes the middle position between USD/BRL and USD/RON and USD/MYR.

The lineup BRL 5 Vs PLN 3 or 4 V RON and MYR at 3 or 4.

Over the past month, BRL was the big winner trade as it bounced off USD/PLN. For PLN despite middle position mves extremely well and is usually 2nd to big winners but it competes with USD/RON.

Click to enlarge

Brian Twomey

USD/RON Vs USD/MYR Crossovers

USD/RON Vs USD/MYR. For MYR is the Malaysian Ringgit and a dead mover currency pair while USD/RON is the Romanian Leu and moves really well.


Both exchange rates are practically the same and trade with 3.0 handle. The trade for USD/RON is the measure against slow mover USD/MYR.


USD/RON on January 5th crossed above USD/MYR. For USD/MYR traded 3.9953 and USD/RON at 3.9574 or ab average of 189 pips.


This means 1.9763 becomes the crossover point. USD/RON today traded highs at 4.0015 or + 225 pips.


USD/MYR remained dead.

A laugh. See FXstreet headlines today. MUFG bank saysCurrent account deficit will underpin the Ringgit. The Ringgit has been underpinned for centuries as a dead issue to trade.


Here’s longs and shorts for USD/RON from January 4 to 10

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Brian Twomey

EUR/JPY Vs USD/CAD Crossover

EUR/JPY 127.00 ‘s Vs USD/CAD 1.2700’s. Showdown and both USD/CAD and EUR/JPY become overnight Winners.


USD/CAD opened the week at 1.2684 and EUR/JPY at 127.03. Kissing cousins at this stage but we also know from long term targets USD/CAD is supported at 1.2584 and as posted yesterday, EUR/JPY was overbought and heading lower.


The week began with a separation of 19 pips or a 9 pip average. This means 1.2693 and 126.93 represents the crossover point. Bad number for 9 because its an uneven and means 1/2 is 4.5. Pips matter as does entry and targets.


So far USD/CAD traded +72 pips above 1.2693 to 1.2765. EUR/JPY traded to 126.76 lows or 17 pips. Both trades profited 89 pips. Understandng is 1/2 the battle.


How about charts. Very slow and non responsive to the crossover. Charts won’t ever assist in trading. Traders will always be late to entries and god only knows in regards to targets. By the time most enter trades, we entered long before and are already in profits.


The best chart to reflect an early warning to EUR/JPY and USD/CAD is below from January 6 to 10 or a 4 day chart. EUR/JPY was at a top and USD/CAD at bottoms. The actual crossover will reflect today at 10 am EST with the ECB. Too late

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January 7 to 10

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Brian Twomey

Weekly Trade Round Up

USD Vs Non USD currency pairs were clear leaders over many past months in currency markets to include EM. Cross pairs lagged and assumed the position as followers. The first transformation is seen this week as USD V Non USD currencies all begin the week in neutral positions and cross pairs become market leaders. The shift includes EM currencies.


Off kilter amd non aligned to USD Vs Non are wide range currencies EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD while GBP/CHF and GBP/CAD remain problem pairs although GBP/CAD over last weeks has moved well. The first focus to trades this week are wide rangers, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD due to oversold and easy trades.


The second target trades and non aligned are JPY cross pairs beginning with GBP/JPY then and in order to trades, EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY.


While NZD/JPY and AUD/JPY are overbought and heading lower this week, AUD/JPY 5 year average is located at 79.74 and NZD/JPY is stuck between the 5 and 10 year averages at 75.32 and 74.61.


GBP/JPY remains Correlated to GBP/USD at +99%. The positions to JPY cross pairs are overbought Vs neutral USD V Non.


Deeply oversold EUR/GBP correlates to GBP/USD at +30 % and GBP/JPY at +29%. Great trade long EUR/GBP from anywhere with caution at 0.9032.


USD/JPY from its 103.94 close trades this week just below its vital point at 104.16. Failure to break targets lower at 103.21 while a break higher targets 104.63 then 105.11.


The AUD complex as AUD/JPY, AUD/CHF and AUD/CAD are all overbought and the clear leaders to AUD/USD. Same scenario to NZD’s cross pairs.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/JPY,

EUR/USD sits on supports at 1.2044, 1,2020 and 1.1846. I would sell rallies.

EUR/JPY 126.20 and 125.41 then 124.01

USD/CAD 1.2386 1.2586 Vs 1.2943 and 1.3177. Bottom of range, oversold

AUD/USD 0.7841 and 0.7721 Vs 0.7457., At 0.7457 is rising and showdown is coming for 0.7841 Vs 0.7457

AUD/JPY 81.93, 81.15 Vs 79.70

NZD/CAD 0.9043 and haven’t run long term yet

CAD/CHF 0.6923 haven’t run long term yet

GBP/JPY 144.31, 145.47, 150.53 139.31 and 138.81

Prices will range range for months to come as no real break points are close. ranges are wide so plenty of opportunity to profit.

Brian Twomey

USD/CAD Vs GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, CAD/CHF

A mathematical division exists between and among currency pairs and prices. And this division is how central banks price their respective currency pairs. Today’s highlight is USD/CAD.


Note in Sunday’s post for the mid point to 18 currency pairs equates to 1.2718. A vital number to view USD/CAD yet a vital number to insights for all 24 currency pairs. However today is USD/CAD.


USD/CAD Vs GBP/JPY


1.2686 USD/CAD Vs GBP/JPY 140.49. USD/CAD absolute top is located at 140.49 or 1.4049. The correlation between USD/CAD and GBP/JPY runs minus 96%. This means a GBP/JPY rise equates to a USD/CAD drop. A USD/CAD rise equates to a GBP/JPY drop.


The Correlation also means USD/CAD at 1.2686 to GBP/JPY 140.49 or 1.4049. Re arrange retains the same Correlation.


The division from 1.4049 is 0.1363 or a mid point at 1.3367.


Now we have 1.4049 and 1.3367 as absolute tops for USD/CAD.


Most vital is the crossovers for currency prices and as can be seen from the bottom 1 week chart, USD/CAD crossed below GBP/JPY. Confirms not only the Correlation but a terrific and profitable trade that required no knowledge nor anything to do except 2 clicks for GBP/JPY and USD/CAD.

1USD/CAD Vs EUR/JPY
Click to enlarge

USD/CAD Vs EUR/JPY

Now break down USD/CAD further to EUR/JPY for additional tops and trades.

The USD/CAD Vs EUR/JPY Correlation runs minus 96% and matches perfectly to GBP/JPY. Both EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are the same exact pairs so Correlation will always match to USD/CAD.


USD/CAD 1.2686 vs EUR/JPY 127.21 or 1.2721. Both are trading in sync. And this means warning to big moves due to the similarity of prices. Forget the names and focus on prices.


Now we have an additional top for USD/CAD at 1.2721. The mid point math division at 17 pips is located at 1.2703 USD/CAD.


Together we have perfect math divisions at 1.4049, 1.3367, 1.2721 and 1.2703.


Note the 1 week chart, EUR/JPY and USD/CAD already crossed and a great trade.

EUR/JPY due to the similarity of prices to USD/CAD will respond much quicker than GBP/JPY’s far away prices. Its the lead / lag to currency pair prices.


If EUR/JPY crossed USD/CAD then GBP/JPY will immediately follow. Now we have an earlty warning to a great and easy trade for big profits.

Click to enlarge
1USD/CAD Vs CAD/CHF

CAD/CHF is found by division of USD/CHF and USD/CAD.about:blankREPORT THIS AD

The Correlation runs +44% and is fairly weak yet positive.

CAD/CHF is a 0 point currency pair and not much assistance to USD/CAD except to know the Correlation is positive.


Then must view CHF/CAD at 1.4392 and USD/CAD 1.2721. A mid point at 0.0835 or USD/CAD 1.3556.


Together, we have 1.4049,1.3556, 1.3367, 1.2721 and 1.2703.


From the 1 week chart, CAD/CHF crossed above USD/CAD which means CAD/CHF, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY crossed above USD/CAD and 4 trades.

Taken further as the mathematical division can go to every currency pair traded on the planet.


CAD/CHF 0.6934 Vs USD/CAD 1.2721 contains a mid point at 0.2893 and factors to 0.9827 or the AUD/CAD top.

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See AUD/CAD highs Vs CAD/CHF 1 week chart

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1OR NZD/CAD Vs CAD/CHF

Note CAD/CHF Vs NZD/CAD 1 week.

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Combined all 6 Currencies

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Brian Twomey

USD/CAD Vs GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, CAD/CHF

A mathematical division exists between and among currency pairs and prices. And this division is how central banks price their respective currency pairs. Today’s highlight is USD/CAD.


Note in Sunday’s post for the mid point to 18 currency pairs equates to 1.2718. A vital number to view USD/CAD yet a vital number to insights for all 24 currency pairs. However today is USD/CAD.


USD/CAD Vs GBP/JPY


1.2686 USD/CAD Vs GBP/JPY 140.49. USD/CAD absolute top is located at 140.49 or 1.4049. The correlation between USD/CAD and GBP/JPY runs minus 96%. This means a GBP/JPY rise equates to a USD/CAD drop. A USD/CAD rise equates to a GBP/JPY drop.


The Correlation also means USD/CAD at 1.2686 to GBP/JPY 140.49 or 1.4049. Re arrange retains the same Correlation.


The division from 1.4049 is 0.1363 or a mid point at 1.3367.


Now we have 1.4049 and 1.3367 as absolute tops for USD/CAD.


Most vital is the crossovers for currency prices and as can be seen from the bottom 1 week chart, USD/CAD crossed below GBP/JPY. Confirms not only the Correlation but a terrific and profitable trade that required no knowledge nor anything to do except 2 clicks for GBP/JPY and USD/CAD.

          USD/CAD Vs EUR/JPY

USD/CAD Vs EUR/JPY

Now break down USD/CAD further to EUR/JPY for additional tops and trades.

The USD/CAD Vs EUR/JPY Correlation runs minus 96% and matches perfectly to GBP/JPY. Both EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are the same exact pairs so Correlation will always match to USD/CAD.


USD/CAD 1.2686 vs EUR/JPY 127.21 or 1.2721. Both are trading in sync. And this means warning to big moves due to the similarity of prices. Forget the names and focus on prices.


Now we have an additional top for USD/CAD at 1.2721. The mid point math division at 17 pips is located at 1.2703 USD/CAD.


Together we have perfect math divisions at 1.4049, 1.3367, 1.2721 and 1.2703.


Note the 1 week chart, EUR/JPY and USD/CAD already crossed and a great trade.

EUR/JPY due to the similarity of prices to USD/CAD will respond much quicker than GBP/JPY’s far away prices. Its the lead / lag to currency pair prices.


If EUR/JPY crossed USD/CAD then GBP/JPY will immediately follow. Now we have an earlty warning to a great and easy trade for big profits.

             USD/CAD Vs CAD/CHF 

CAD/CHF is found by division of USD/CHF and USD/CAD.

The Correlation runs +44% and is fairly weak yet positive.

CAD/CHF is a 0 point currency pair and not much assistance to USD/CAD except to know the Correlation is positive.


Then must view CHF/CAD at 1.4392 and USD/CAD 1.2721. A mid point at 0.0835 or USD/CAD 1.3556.


Together, we have 1.4049,1.3556, 1.3367, 1.2721 and 1.2703.


From the 1 week chart, CAD/CHF crossed above USD/CAD which means CAD/CHF, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY crossed above USD/CAD and 4 trades.

Taken further as the mathematical division can go to every currency pair traded on the planet.


CAD/CHF 0.6934 Vs USD/CAD 1.2721 contains a mid point at 0.2893 and factors to 0.9827 or the AUD/CAD top.


See AUD/CAD highs Vs CAD/CHF 1 week chart

OR NZD/CAD Vs CAD/CHF

Note CAD/CHF Vs NZD/CAD 1 week.

Click to enlarge

Brian Twomey

Long Term Targets: 18 Currencies

Overall currency market prices over the past year or so ranged. For the next year, currency market prices will range. Overall ranges for 18 currency pairs experienced a severe trade compression to range boundaries. . When ranges compress, moving averages severely restrict and surround the traded price. Overall, ranges are trading in 2 and 300 pip territories. Vital to the next year or so to trades is monitor moving averages.


EUR/USD Example


EUR/USD bottomed at 1.0300’s and many readers would remember the long term target for EUR/USD was 1.1400’s and 1.1500’s. After a few attempts, EUR/USD achieved 1.1400’s and 1.1500’s. EUR/USD had 2 choices from 1.1500’s.


Either to drop then long again to target 1.1500’s or travel higher inside its respective range. This story applies to all 18 currency pairs and most probably to all 24.


EUR/USD decided to travel higher to 1.2300’s. While EUR/USD traveled higher ever so slowly, moving average supports were built into the price and upon breaks to above resistance points, EUR/USD not only traveled higher but ranges were located at 2 and 300 pip intervals to the bottom MA support and upper resistance point.


Currency prices will move however in intervals of 2 and 300 pips and very slowly. If we don’t see at least 2 and 300 pip moves within current ranges then MA’s will continue to compress and surround to restrict traded prices.


Price moves are quick and very short term and this is seen because medium to long term averages are just not moving. They are actually completely dead.


GBP/USD for example from the Brexit vote drop, its long term averages dropped 1000 pips in 3 and 4 years, from 1.5300’s to current 1.4300’s.


The 18 currency pair mid point for all prices is located at 1.2718 or 0.0127. This is atrocious and low.


Many currency pairs are located at vital inflection points. Overall, we are in a short term do or die situation to move for at least 15 of 18 currencies.


5 and 10 year averages will continue its role as deeply vital.


GBP/NZD, GBP/CHF, GBP/AUD, GBP/USD and GBP/JPY remain the big 5 top movers. By Statistics, GBP/NZD, GBP/CHF and GBP/USD contain 1000 pip moves potentially, GBP/JPY at 900 and GBP/AUD at 700. GBP/AUD ranges dropped severely by at least 300 and 400 pips over the past year. Remainder pair movements are stuck in the 200 to 500 pip category.

                Long term targets

Best strategy to long term targets is GBP/NZD must trade to 1.9107 and 1.9131 from current 1.8995. AUD/CHF must trade to 0.6993 from current 0.6907. GBP/CHF must trade to 1.2450 at least from current 1.2092.


CAD/JPY must trade to at least 82.62.


To exclude the 4 currencies above, 14 currency pairs lack long term targets because nearly all currency pairs achieved long term target destinations. EUR/AUD for example achieved 1.5900’s and 1.5800’s as mentioned in past long term target writings.


EUR/USD


EUR/USD must trade to at least 1.1847 and slightly higher than last week’s 1.1700’s.
Lower must break 1.2020, 1.1998 then 1.1846 to target 1.1700’s and 1.1600’s. Massive MA’s exist at 1.1500’s. EUR top range point is located at 1.2510. I would trade EUR strictly from the short side as 1.2500’s and 1.2600’s are 20 year range tops.


GBP/USD is stuck from 1.3360 to 1.3832. Below 1.3360 lurks the 5 year average at 1.3078 and a solid line at 1.3000 exactly. GBP/USD will drive the cross pairs.


GBP/JPY. Stuck from 144.31 to 139.31, or 500 pips. below 139.31 then a massive line exists at 138.50.


GBP/CAD. Massive supports at 1.7266, 1.7244 and 1.7120. Big break above for higher is located at 1.7533. Nothing special here.


GBP/CHF. Stuck from 1.1952 to 1.2283 however severely oversold.


GBP/NZD break at 1.9145 then ranges from 1.9145 t0 1.9360 or barely 300 pips.
EUR/JPY massive supports at 125.14, 124.99, and the 5 year average at 124.22. Range top located at 128.84. Horrible currency pair.
EUR/NZD. 1.6883 and 1.6923 Vs 1.7236 and 1.7298. EUR/NZD must break 1.7121 to move significantly higher.


EUR/AUD 1.5741 Vs 1.6174 and 1.6205. Well supported at 1.5400’s. Current range top located at 1.5977.


GBP/AUD. Massive resistance at 1.7936, 1.8028, 1.8130 and 1.8169. Must break 1.8380 to move significantly higher. Look for short term targets at 1.7872 and 1.7888. Bottom range point 1.7647.


USD/CAD. Stuck from 1.2386 and 1.2586 to 1.2976 and 1.2993. Massive resistance at 5 year average at 1.3174 and another MA at 1.3177.
CAD/JPY massive lines at 81.38, 83.45, 84.49 and 85.57. Break 80.31 to trade significantly lower. Horrible currency pair.


AUD/USD. Big breaks above at 0.7721 and 0.7841. Below must break 0.7406, 0.7392 and the 5 year average at 0.7290.


AUD/JPY 81.15 and 81.93 Vs 79.76 at the 5 year average then 77.24 and 76.79.


AUD/CHF 0.6770 and 0.6671 vs 0.7063.


NZD/USD. Must break 0.7048 and 0.7020 to travel significantly lower to target averages at 0.6939, 0.6877, the 5 year at 0.6821 then 0.6722.


NZD/JPY. 74.62 at the 5 year average Vs 74.22, 74.15 and 74.07. Break 74.07 then significantly lower to 72.37 and 72.03.


NZD/CHF. 0.6351 and 0.6250 Vs 0.6572 and 0.6733.

Brian Twomey

1887 Electoral Vote Count Law

This is the law Trump is banking on to remain president. January 6th is going to be a great day and a day to learn to what may never be seen again in the United States.

Th Electoral College is not a 1 person and 1 man vote so to declare majority votes the winner to all electoral votes and then certify a president. Its exists to stop fraud in the vote system as happened to Trump.

In the House of Representatives, each state has Electoral Votes according to the number of representatives in a state delegation. Let’s say for example South Carolina has 5 representatives. South Carolina has 5 Electoral votes. The vote is by state.

The key to Trump’s initial strategy in the House of Representatives is Republicans hold a majority of most State delegations. If the Electors of the State are Trump supporters then the state must vote for the Republican slate of electors as Republicans vote for Republicans.

What if the House of Representatives votes for Pence as President and Pence earns a majority vote. The votes then transfer to the Senate for a vote where the Republicans have a majority. Pence is the Presiding Officer of the Senate and has ability to cast the final vote. The Pence vote will be voted for Trump by Pence and Trump wins.

The Senate has the ability to reject votes such as from Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina and Arizona. However those states are Republican States and if the electors are Republicans so chosen and Republicans hold a majority in the state delegations then those Electors will vote Trump and Trump then receives a majority of the total 270 Electoral votes needed to win.

This vote to the 5 swing states can actually occur in the House of Representatives and if a majority is voted for Republicans then the Senate Rubber stamps the electoral votes and Trump wins.

The fallback point if any would exist is this 1887 law on Counting Electoral Votes. Louis Gomert lawsuit to sue Pence based on the 1887 law must be heard by the Supreme Court and where Republicans hold a majority 5 -4 vote. At least 5 -4 to exclude our new enemy Roberts.

Here’s the main argument to the 1887 law.

When all objections so made to any vote or paper from a State
shall have been received and read, the Senate shall thereupon withdraw,


and such objections shall be submitted to the Senate for its decision; and
the Speaker of the House of Representatives shall, in like manner, submit returns. submit such objections to the House of Representatives for its decision; and

no electoral vote or votes from any State which shall have been regularly
given by electors whose appointment has been lawfully certified to according to section three of this act from which but one return has been
received shall be rejected,

but the two Houses concurrently may reject
the vote or votes when they agree that such vote or votes have not been
Conflicting re- so regularly given by electors whose appointment has been so certiturns. fled.

If more than one return or paper purporting to be a return from
a State shall have been received by the President of the Senate, those
votes, and those only, shall be counted which shall have been regularly given by the electors who are shown by the determination mentioned in section two of this act to have been appointed,

if the determination in said section provided for shall have been made, or by such successors or substitutes, in case of a vacancy in the board of electors so
ascertained, as have been appointed to fill such vacancy in the mode
provided by the laws of the State;

but in case there shall arise the question which of two or more of such State authorities determining what
electors have been appointed, as mentioned in section two of this act,

is the lawful tribunal of such State, the votes regularly given of those
electors, and those only, of such State shall be counted whose title as
electors the two Houses, acting separately, shall concurrently decide is
supported by the decision of such State so authorized by its laws; and


in such case of more than one return or paper purporting to be a return
from a State, if there shall have been no such determination of the question in the State aforesaid, then those votes, and those only, shall be
counted which the two Houses shall concurrently decide were cast by
lawful electors appointed in accordance with the laws of the State,

unless the two Houses, acting separately, shall concurrently decide such
votes not to be the lawful votes of the legally appointed electors of such
State.

But if the two Houses shall disagree in respect of the counting
of such votes, then, and in that case,

the votes of the electors whose
appointment shall have been certified by the Executive of the State,
Announcement under the seal thereof, shall be counted. When the two Houses have
of decision. voted, they shall immediately again meet, and the presiding officer shall
then announce the decision of the questions submitted.

No votes or
papers from any other State shall be acted upon until the objections
previously made to the votes or papers from any State shall have been
finally disposed of.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V CADZAR

In the January 2020 article, EUR predicts EUR, I revealed how to factor by calculator how all EUR/USD roads lead to EUR/GBP by either EUR/USD reciprocals or as EUR/USD seen by most as 1.2250 for example.

And for interested, from November 2019 to January 2020, located on site here is GBP Predicts GBP, AUD Predicts AUD, NZD predicts NZD, CAD predicts CAD and JPY predicts JPY.

Traders learn how to trade true exchange rates by exchange rates using a calculator. Not only simple and highly profitable but its all mathematically correct. And takes 2 seconds.

EUR/USD perfect opposite currency pair is CAD/ZAR. Peter Wadkins wrote over many years, CAD/ZAR is the true commodity currency. due to the Combination and CAD/ZAR derivation as USD/CAD and USD/ZAR.

Find CAD/ZAR price by divide USD/ZAR by USD/CAD. Today CAD/ZAR trading price is 11.36 by USD/ZAR 14.5777 divide USD/CAD 1.2823.

CAD/ZAR big high / Low break is located at 11.86 and EUR/USD 1.1974.

CAD/ZAR as EUR/USD perfect opposite currency is the same as saying CAD/ZAR is the perfect opposite to EUR/USD because CAD/ZAR is actually a USD currency Pair. If EUR/USD is transformed to its reciprocal as USD/EUR then CAD/ZAR and USD/EUR become the same exact same currency pair. See the first chart below.

CAD/ZAR traditionally moves far wider than EUR/USD.

Strategy. If CAD/ZAR breaks above 11.86 then it trades higher and EUR/USD trades lower. Much lower.

Below 1 week USD/EUR Vs CAD/ZAR

Click to enlarge

Below 1 week EUR/USD Vs CAD/ZAR. EUR/USD to high and CAD/ZAR to low.

Click to enlarge

EUR/USD Vs CAD/ZAR 1 month

Click to enlarge

EUR/USD Vs CAD/ZAR 3 months

Click to enlarge

EUR/USD Vs CAD/ZAR 1 Year and the Big Crossover

Click to enlarge

EUR/USD Vs CAD/ZAR 2 years

Click to enlarge

Brian Twomey

The Week: Currency Prices and Averages

About 1 month ago, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD prices broke above 5 year averages and caused a severe mis alignment to the remainder 25 currency pairs. Required to align was either remainder 25 currency pairs break above 5 year averages or GBP, AUD and NZD break below. The synopsis.


EUR/USD remains inside the 10 and 14 year averages at 1.2124 and 1.2632. At 1.2600’s, EUR trades at the top of its averages dating to 1999. Break below 1.2124 and 1.1963 targets 1.1700’s. And this is exactly where EUR will trade. Nothing special for this week as EUR closed in dead neutral.


EUR/JPY 5 and 10 year averages are located at 124.24 and 123.82 while the 14 year is located 200 pips above current 126.26 price at 128.51. The range is pretty much 200 pips from 125.00’s to 127.00’s. EUR/JPY is overbought for this week.


EUR/AUD sits comfortably above 1.5611 and deeply oversold for this week. Big break higher is located at exactly 1.6181 to then target 1.6200’s.


The movers to the EUR complex and best trades are EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/AUD.


GBP/USD Must break 1.3223 and the 5 year average at 1.3085 to travel lower. Short and medium term, GBP is deeply overbought. GBP is massively overbought for the week.


GBP/JPY approaches its 5 year average at 143.23 and overbought for the week.
GBP/USD and GBP/JPY are clear drivers to remaining GBP cross pairs.
GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD 5 year averages are located at 1.9215 and 1.7986.


AUD


The drivers to AUD are AUD/USD and top pair in the AUD complex, AUD/CAD. AUD pairs are perfectly aligned and deeply overbought for the week. AUD/JPY’s 5 year average is located at 79.79. AUD/CAD 10 year average is located just above at 0.9805 while AUD/USD is found at 0.7289.


NZD


NZD/USD is well supported at 0.6903 and 0.6820. The next big line is located at 0.7264. NZD/JPY do or die next average lines are located at 74.03 and 74.65. NZD/CAD as top pair is overbought yet 5 year is found at 0.8979.

NZD driver pairs are NZD/CAD top pair and NZD/CHF as bottom most currency pair bot only for NZD but in a 64 pair lineup to include EM’s.


GBP/USD Vs USD/CAD dividing line is located at 1.3185 and USD/CAD’s 5 year at 1.3177.


USD/JPY


Oversold USD/JPY next big lines below are 103.03 and 102.38. Intervention by the BOJ to rescue a falling JPY? Central banks rarely intervene in the modern day, particularly on a large scale. Intervention since 2016 is done through daily changes to interest rates. Its the best, easiest, guaranteed and no cost approach to adjust exchange rates.

Brian Twomey