Fed and central bank meetings in days past met anytime without a public pre announcement schedule. Central bank meetings then were extremely vital to monitor because Interest rates were raised or lowered based on the vote of the board. Never an early warning to a possible raise, lower or remain on hold. Nor was the size of an adjustment known in advance. Quite common was 0.50 then 0.75.
The only advance warning for a trader was to run interest rate data to determine overbought and oversold for a possible interest rate direction or on hold. Its an exact science yesterday and into this modern trade day but the difference is today’s averages don’t move compared to days past.
Interest rates then were quoted as headline and discount rates. The terminology changed in the modern day to headline and overnight rates but the meaning is the exact same. The overnight rate remains a discount to headline.
Market reactions had to immediately price the new interest rate adjustment and moves were extraordinary. 2 and 300 pip EUR/USD moves were quite common. These were the days of true volatility but also the days when DXY didn’t exist as a means to measure EUR moves.
Year 2000 came along and central banks were mandated to meet every 6 weeks. Not much ever changes to central bank policy in 6 weeks time. We hear the same old taper / raise story meeting after meeting. What changed were market moves. Today’s 50 pip central bank moves lack comparison to 2 and 300 pip moves. A 100 pips move today is extraordinary and in one direction. This is called volatility today.
Then came Forward Guidance, the bits and pieces to possible policy or taper and interest rate changes released to the public. Here traders hang on to every word from central speakers with hope to place another piece to the jigsaw puzzle together so we know exactly what will happen at meetings.
GBP Vs EM
Most GBP pairs to EM are oversold/ overbought to neutral. Nothing stands out as any trades to rush or trade on this day.
GBPUSD for today 1.3816, 1.3833, 1.3840, 1.3851, 1.3861, 1.3874
Vs 1.3894, 1.3903, 1.3912, 1.3921, 1.3929, 1.3938, 1.3947 and 1.3956.
Don’t expect the BOE to offer anything other than this price series as the price series is derived from the BOE. The central banks inform everyday how to trade their currencies, meeting or no meeting.
Long at the lows and short at the tops to strategy. Watch tops at 1.3921 and 1.3929.
GBP/JPY watch for shorts at 153.05 and 153.20.
GBP/CHF higher on a break above 1.2638.
GBP/CAD at richter scale overbought and targets 1.7370 easily then 1.7348.
GBP/NZD oversold and targets 1.9783 easily.
GBP/AUD watch 1.8813 and shorts to target 1.8738.