EUR/USD V USD/JPY and EUR Cross Pairs: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The commonality to currency markets this week as it pertains to EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and EUR cross pairs is all require a correction higher while USD/JPY desperately needs a correction lower. Correction for EUR/USD, EUR cross pairs and AUD means overall ranges from 50 to 150 pips and nothing at all special as downside prices traveled to oversold.

Note 50 to 150 pip ranges best describes the overall trading conditions in a vast majority of currency pairs and this means breakouts are coming to expand trading ranges.

Oversold and 150 pips is far to kind as applied to EUR and AUD but its USD/JPY easily will dictate EUR and AUD because USD/JPY needs a 150 pip correction. The higher USD/JPY travels from current prices without a correction then the harder it will fall in 1 fat candle. USD/JPY since March was and will remain the odd ball and problem currency pair as its price is far to high and it approaches dangerously high levels near 113.00’s.

Higher for EUR and AUD means its vital break points to travel higher will hold and lower USD/JPY also means its break point holds. Until vital points are broken then current trends remain and seen overall is a true correction. Further, all EUR cross pairs trade below vital break points.

EUR/USD and its cross pairs all remain comfortably below vital break points. EUR/NZD however contains severe pressure on current prices and must move higher but higher means a challenge to vital point at 1.7094. Yet at the 1.7021 close, EUR/NZD sits 1 pip below its important point at 1.7022.

While the SNB in 2009 released the 1.2000 Floor to the EUR/CHF Peg against EUR/USD, here’s EUR/CHF at 1.1743 and EUR/USD at 1.1771. The SNB’s Peg to EUR/USD is contained inside a whole different dimension as it allows EUR/CHF to trade within EUR/USD ranges.

It represents an unfair game as EUR/CHF is taken from its normal allowable trading ranges and eliminated as a standalone currency pair to trade. Of all EUR/USD cross pairs, EUR/CHF and EUR/NZD contain the widest ranges and on paper is allowed to move far and wide but the EUR/CHF Peg to EUR/USD cuts EUR/CHF to far less than 1/2 its allowable distance.

EUR/NZD price pressures is nothing new in the life of its ranges and seen all the time. In another few months, guaranteed we’ll see it again. The why is explained by completely dead European interest rates and the influence interest rates share to German yields. The ECB like the SNB and all central banks are equally abusive to their exchange rate ranges as they know exactly how to control the game and its not through yields any longer as once existed pre 2008 and post 2016 changes. For interested, the how aspect to yields, interest rates and central bank control was written in deep detail to the exact pip. We remain ahead of the central banks.

USD/JPY correction lower begins first at 110.33 then to target at 109.46. Many resistance points exist in the 109.00’s from 109.77, 109.87 to 109.46, 109.39 and 109.34. Overall break point for lower USD/JPY to target 108.44 is located at 109.39. Top channel is now 113.25. To understand slow grind, USD/JPY’s break point at 109.39 was 109.28 on Feb 23rd.

USD/JPY began its March journey higher from 104.00’s then it broke rough resistance zones at 106.00’s to next travel to and break of the next set of rough points at 108.00’s and trade to 110.00’s. The rough resistance points higher located every 200 pips forced a slow 3 months and 600 pip grind. Fed speakers and promise of Fed rate hikes forced USD/JPY higher as interest rates began to reflect the rise otherwise USD/JPY has no business at such high prices as miles of downside exits.

EUR/USD Vital break point is located at 1.2018 and not expected to break this week. A correction from deeply oversold forces EUR/USD higher to target first 1.1829 then 1.1883.

Overall EUR/USD dropped from 1.2500’s in February due to approach to the 10 year average at 1.2800’s and severely overbought from 1.1300’s, 1.1400’s and 1.1500;s. The big break at 1.2300’s then 1.2100’s was responsible to see current 1.1700’s. While 1.2018 is today’s break point for higher, 1.2300’s remains and will remain in many months to come as the vital break to see EUR back to 1.2500’s and higher. Further, weekly averages since February began its drop against a higher EUR and this week is no different therefore until the averages began to rise, the correct move higher represents a correction to the larger downtrend.

EUR/AUD target lower from the March short trade at 1.6100’s remains 1.5559. A correction is warranted first yet overall EUR/AUD remains in sell rally mode until 1.5500’s achieves its destination.

EUR/AUD break point is located at 1.5767, top channel at 1.5823 and again not expected to break anytime soon. Higher for EUR/AUD means a target at 1.5721 then begins the drop to 1.5631. Overall, AUD/EUR broke and must remain above 1.5765 as well as a higher expected AUD/USD to ensure EUR/AUD travels to 1.5631 and target to 1.5500’s.

EUR/CHF from its 1.1743 close faces it channel bottom at 1.1732 and 1.1719 as well as extreme oversold at 1.1675. EUR/CHF break point is located at 1.1807 and again not expected to break anytime soon. First target above is located at 1.1769 then 1.1788. The downside then resumes to 1.1719.

EUR/CAD. From the close at 1.5166, first target is located at 1.5199 then 1.5236. Overall break point is located at 1.5350 and top channel now at 1.5609. Recall the short in March from 1.5500’s. The top at 1.5609 is the result of weekly averages dropping since 1.5500’s in March.

EUR/NZD closed at 1.7021 and next prices are dictated by the break point at 1.7022. Below 1.7022 targets 1.6931 while above targets 1.7094 and 1.7113. Most vital for short continuation is for EUR/NZD to remain below 1.7094.

AUD/USD break point is located at 0.7622 while below AUD hits extreme prices at 0.7463. Same story reported week after week, AUD is deeply oversold. First target above is located at 0.7551 then 0.7586. Longer range target remains 0.7811.

EUR/GBP was reported last week and short remains the strategy to target first 0.8663 then 0.8500’s. Longs are impossible for weeks to come.

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

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EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

 

USD/CAD and CAD/JPY led the way in March for 600 pip moves then USD/CAD settled into a 300 pip range where it remained since March while CAD/JPY ranged roughly 100 to 150 pips.

EUR/JPY was already into its roughly 400 pip range from 129.00’s to 133 tops and not much changed since March. AUD/JPY settled into its 400 pip range from 80 to 84 however 80 and 84 were outliers as AUD/JPY hasn’t strayed far from 82’s since March. GBP/JPY’s 145 to 153 and 800 pip range remains the big mover yet recall May 8 and long from bottoms at 147.46 and overall 150 target.

Here’s the overall question: how many of the 35 currency pairs posted since March completed its 600 pip mission and to what time frame. 28 currency pairs in the majors are offered but not many of 28 are worth the trouble on long term holds.
EUR/AUD after 2 months just hit its 1.5736 target from 1.6100’s after 2 months for 200 pips per month. The optimum method to trade EUR/AUD to the 1.5736 target is by hitting daily highs then short, ht highs then short as gains far above 200 pips will be seen. The alternative is to plow into the 200 pips and live life outside the daily screens and pablum commentaries.

What is seen from 200 and 300 pip movements per month is the new currency market structure in place since June 2016. But 2 and 300 pips are trend pips as opposed to range pips, big difference. Central banks changed interest rates into a forced daily lending program to ensure nation’s money constantly moves but they streamlined the available borrow and lend ranges. Interest rates and lend/ borrow was the target designed for daily and short term moves and the exchange rate suffered the ancillary effects. CAD is the greatest mover because the BOC can’t nor won’t change its perfectly designed interest rate structure. Luckily for USD, Commercial Paper can’t be touched.

EUR/USD. What remains below is 1.1712 then 1.1588. Above must break 1.2045 to target 1.2100’s and 1.2200’s. Massive resistance exists at 1.2300’s.

USD/JPY Below break exist at 110.09 then 109.23. Above must break 110.44 and 110.46 to target 110.98 then 111.71. Top channel exists at 113.30.

GBP/USD. How about today’s break point is 1.3700, exactly at 1.370062. Break of 1.3700 targets 1.3890 then 1.4190. Below 1.3299 and 1.3193 remain vital supports.

GBP/JPY. 149.94 represents the current break point.

EUR/GBP from Monday sell 0.8817, traded to 0.8713 with a target at 0.8663. Sell rallies is the way for many weeks to come.

NZD/USD Break Point now 0.7074. Below breaks exist at 0.6869 and 0.6742.

AUD/EUR broke higher above 0.6300’s and explains why EUR/AUD now trades at 1.5600’s and on its way to 1.5500’s.

USD/CAD watch today 1.2763 as a break lower targets 1.2500’s.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Recall AUD/NZD March 30 when its price traded at lower 1.0600’s and the reported target was located at 1.0964. The target then was known and AUD/NZD would trade to target 1.0964. Nothing on this planet would or could stop AUD/NZD to not trade to target. I bailed on this trade for ? 75 ish pips due to extremely poor performance and poor market memories.

2 months later, AUD/NZD just traded to 1.0902. Two months later where is the target or adjusted target from 1.0964 is unknown as AUD/NZD wasn’t worth the trouble to inspect further at 150 pips per month. What is known at 300 pips from 1.0600’s is an under performed currency pair as currency markets are represented since March at overall 600 pips but far less today.

Adjusted target means every month or so may require a further inspection depending on the currency pair. Once a forecast is offered, the target is written in stone as was seen from past 35 trades. Today’s GBP/USD for example longer range target is 1.4199, 1 week ago was 1.4215 and 1.4225 from 2 weeks ago. GBP topside is dropping by roughly 10 to 15 pips per week. EUR/AUD target at 1.5736 from 1.6100’s achieved 1.5776 and is the probable target after 2 months.

Mind the Gaps. GBP/USD achieved today 1.3524. This price is located between today’s 1.3536 and 1.3511. But 1.3524 fails to represent the bottom. The bottom side has room and is located from 1.3511 to 1.3493 and 1.3493 to 1.3475. Mind the Gaps on the topside is located from 1.3593 to 1.3612. Further protection to the topside is built in at 1.3619 because GBP has a distinct habit once every 2 or 3 months to trade bonkers. We are always prepared and welcome bonkers but even more prepared to Mind every possible pip inside Gaps.

Overbought AUD/NZD break points below are located at 1.0771 and 1.0723. Nothing special in AUD/NZD.

USD/JPY at 109.97 trades at its break point and its do or die for JPY to break above at 110.08 or travel lower to its bottom break at 109.10.

USD/CAD trades close to its break points at 1.2770 then 1.2719. CAD remains range bound since March from 1.2700’s to 1.3000’s but a move is building inside CAD.

EUR/USD break point dropped 10 pips since Sunday from 1.2070 to today’s 1.2060. EUR/USD is contained today at 1.1893 and 1.1877.

GBP/JPY break at 148.99 targets 149.25 and 149.51. The break point is now 149.58.

USD/CHF sits comfortably above 0.9809.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The most important relationships in currency markets in past decades is most widely traded by actual numbers and % of all traded pairs is EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. EUR/JPY was the premiere risk pair as it defined direction to EUR/USD and USD/JPY as well as insights to USD Vs non USD currency pairs. Seen since Feb 23rd the EUR/USD and USD/JPY relationship was contained to barely 200 pip overall monthly ranges and 200 pip ranges in the majors contained EUR/JPY to a smaller degree.

Since Feb 23rd, USD/JPY rose 478 pips from 105.26 to 110.04 but then came the weeks of April 17 and April 24 when USD/JPY dipped to 104.64 and 104.58. USD/JPY actually rose 546 pips from 104.58 or 182 pips per month.

EUR/JPY rose 391 pips since Feb 23rd from 129.58 to 133.49 but then came the week of April 17 when EUR/JPY dipped to 128.97 then the actual pip jump was 452 pips or 150 pips per month.

EUR/USD jumped 320 pips between Feb 23rd to April 24th from 1.2158 to 1.2478 or 160 pips per month then dived 652 pips to last week’s 1.1822.

EUR/USD break point for higher is located at 1.2069 and this contains EUR/USD to roughly 1.1941 to 1.2195. Below, 1.1833 serves as this week’s long point to trade to 1.1941. The road higher to 1.2069 is rough as 1.1990 must clear first then 1.2009, 1.2039, 1.2046 and 1.2083.

USD/JPY must break is located at 109.04 then target at 108.08. USD/JPY must first break 109.21 then 109.12. Overall 109.99, 109.43 and 109.37 descends upon USD/JPY and protects the 110.07 break at the 5 year average. Good sell point at 109.99 and the same advice written last week at 109.97.

EUR/JPY sits on solid supports at 128.63 and 129.50, 129.18 and 129.01. The must break point for higher is located at 131.57. The 133 top written weeks ago is now 132.29. In the way to 131.57 is 130.76, 130.89 and 131.35. Watch for quick longs at 130.42 but overall nothing special in EUR/JPY.

EUR/GBP recall from the last trade is again at our sell point at 0.8813. EUR/GBP desperately needs a dive. Break points are located at 0.8796, 0.8794 and 0.8782. Below 0.8782 then targets 0.8665 and 0.8548 and 0.8533. Longs are impossible.

AUD/USD break Point is located at 0.7634 and above targets 0.7713, 0.7749 and 0.7778. First break point to 0.7634 are 0.7561 and 0.7601. Below is contained at 0.7519. Longer term target remains at 0.7816. AUD contains terrific potential higher.

GBP/USD Overall range is located at 1.3299 to the break point at 1.3721. Above 1.3721 targets 1.3805, 1.3883 and 1.3890. Longer term target is located at 1.4190. Below 1.3299 then comes 1.3193.  GBP contains great potential to travel much higher.

 

Brian Twomey

 

EUR, G10, Interest Rates, Gaps: Levels, Ranges, Targets

EUR/AUD shorts from upper 1.6100’s and target 1.5736 now trades 1.5776. The further target was written 1.5500’s from 1.6100’s. Don’t lose sight. Recall EUR/JPY 128.00’s to 131.00’s and 133.00 tops. Weeks and weeks later, EUR/JPY maintained the previously written range.

Mind the Gaps as this is the new concept derived by the central banks and it is found in the mystery rate. The BOE is the new member to the Mind the Gap strategy as they followed AUD and NZD. All formulated due to the perfection and long history from USD.

The ECB is the laggard but the ECB has been in a deep coma for many years and certainly since they went negative. The ECB settled then lost focus. The BOC by far is brilliant and like me is many miles ahead of the game. The BOC remains market oriented while most central banks seek and achieved exchange rate management.

The daily targets must account for the Gaps in order to hit perfect targets. The point of note is the GBP pairs posted 2 days ago. The lost point of note is the GBP pairs posted 2 days ago.

Given 2 exchange rates on 2 separate days, each contains a far different story. If for example USD/JPY was shown yesterday at 108.84. Yesterday’s 108.84 traded successfully for its significance then its forgotten as it doesn’t hold sway any longer. Today’s 108.84 holds a radically different set of information to trade and contains no information from yesterday.

Monday’s were designed decades ago to remain dead trading days. Technical analysis is impossible to explain this concept.

USD/JPY, Recall Monday 109.97 recommended sell point. USD/JPY as usual week after week brought the price to the brink and traded 110.01. It traded in overnight Asia at 109.19. The overall break point is located at 108.99. Far lower to 107’s on a break. Look for 109.64 and 109.88 to contain for today while 108.99 is blocked by 108.95.

GBP/JPY Contained above at 148.48 and break point at 149.63. Watch 147.22 below.

EUR/USD. Watch above 1.1958 on break 1.1934. Watch below 1.1876 and 1.1859. Overall break point 1.2078.

GBP/USD. Strong supports at 1.3460’s. Watch 1.3572 above on break of 1.3542. New Risk/ Reward definition, perfect.
Brian Twomey

 

EUR/USD and GBP, Carney: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Recall skyrocket overbought EUR/CAD at 1.5500’s against first target at 1.5300’s and much lower forecasted. Here’s EUR/CAD at 1.5100’s. EUR/CAD performed a GBP/CAD in beginning stages of the trade as GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD both bolted 100 ish pips higher before they embarked on the short journey. How much did 100 pips matter overall when GBP/CAD end result was 600 pips short from 1.17900’s to 1.7300’s and EUR/CAD 400 pips at 1.5100’s .EUR/CAD’s 400 pips revealed as stated how miserable is this currency pair despite miles overbought from 1.5500;s.

Most important overall is understanding to the 5 W’s of Journalism, Who, What, Where, When, how and WHY. Where, When, How and Why is most vital.

The main concept and roughest aspect is one must believe wholeheartedly in the numbers as presented and without a picture. If pictures states a 1000 words then the picture must also reveal 1000 possible outcomes. I alleviated the concept of pictures many years ago in favor of numbers and targets as I found pictures, candles and charts all wrong. Against the new structural currency price system, pictures, charts and candles are even more wrong.

Recall GBP/JPY from Monday and long from 147.46 to target 149.29 and today traded 149.23 for +177 pips. Yesterday’s GBP pairs achieved destinations, USD/JPY from Monday at 109.94 short point. And the list of trades and targets from past weeks goes on and on but without failure and without stops as a stop says I don’t trust, I don’t believe, I need protection. Stops are not needed here.

To restate from yesterday and Carney comments. All central bank economic releases are pretty much on target or extremely close. Nothing special in economics. The magic words to move the currency price are interest rates and interest rate related.
No raise anytime soon then look out below GBP. Consideration to raise end 2018 or 2019 then supported and higher GBP. Any commentary written in regards to GBP interest rates to high, to low, just perfect and the answer to the main ingredient is no.

GBP/USD. Break Point now 1.3745, GBP trades below, A break at 1.3558 targets 1.3536, 1.3519, 1.3510 and 1.3502. Above targets 1.3634 upon a break at 1.3606 and 1.3618.

GBP/JPY, Break Point 149.71, GBP/JPY trades below. A break at 148.88 and 148.63 targets 148.44, 148.35 and 148.26. Above 149.31 targets 149.73. Potential higher in GBP/JPY remains terrific.

GBP/CAD Break point now 1.7562. Watch below 1.7365 targets at 1.7343 and 1.7321, Above 1.7424 targets 1.7486 and 1.7497.

EUR/USD break point 1.2088, Watch below 1.1837, targets 1.1821 and 1.1813, Above 1.1881 and 1.1895 targets 1.1918.

USD/JPY Watch again today’s 109.95 and 5 year average at 110.06. Break Point below 108.95. look for higher and reversal at 110.08 and below 109.53, targets 109.39 and 109.26.

AUD/EUR break point 0.6324 and a close monitor for AUD/USD.

AUD remains lazer beam focus as potential higher is astounding. GBP/USD and GBP/JPY remain heavily focused for higher.

EUR/NZD Recall now trades again back at 1.7130’s and 1.7240’s. Short is the way.

USD/CAD watch break point 1.2777. Shorts and sell rallies was correct. Short and sell rallies will remain correct.

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD and GBP Cross Pairs: Levels, Ranges, Targets

As no time is available for further Carney analysis, most prominent GBP pairs are located below and levels, ranges and targets are as usual perfect. Yet as Carney delivers his remarks, not much matters as to what he says due to the known Levels, Ranges and Targets derived from his own Central Bank, the BOE.

GBP/USD Break Point for higher or lower, 1.3757. GBP/USD trades below break point. Bottom contained by 1.3488, 1.3471 and 1.3454. Target 1.3589 on a break at 1.3552.

GBP/JPY break Point 149.80. GBP/JPY trades below break point. Bottom contained by 147.83, 147.64 and 147.46. Thick supports 147.64 and 147.65. Above target 148.94 on break 148.58.

GBP/CAD break Point 1.7575, GBP/CAD trades below break point. Above 1.7575, targets for today only, 1.7566, 1.7599 and 1.7610. Below contained by 1.7478, 1.7455, 1.7456 and 1.7434.

GBP/NZD break Point 1.9309, GBP/NZD trades above break point. Above 1.9444, targets 1.9474 and 1.9489 and 1.9504. Below 1.9381, Targets 1.9356 and 1.9332.

GBP/AUD Break Point 1.7984, GBP/AUD trades above break point. Below break at 1.8190 targets, 1.8158, 1.8131 and far below target 1.8112.

GBP/CHF. Break Point 1.3443, GBP/CHF trades above break point. Below 1.3556 targets 1.3532 and solid line at 1.3515 then 1.3498. Above targets 1.3619 to 1.3635.

Overall in 6 GBP pairs, 3 pairs trade below vital break points GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and GBP/CAD while 3 pairs trade above vital break points, GBP/CHF, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD.

Most wide ranging pairs among all 6 GBP pairs are in order GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/JPY then GBP/CHF and GBP/USD share equal range billing. GBP/USD and GBP/CHF are least in the range scale while GBP/NZD is most wide yet most wide among all G10 currency pairs. Why GBP/USD is least on the range scale is GBP remains deeply intertwined to USD and GBP/CHF shares equal range scale billing because GBP/CHF and GBP/USD are essentially the same pair.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, G10 and Fed Funds: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Fed Funds in Q1 and Q2 in 2015 traded to its lowest depths at 0.02 and a drop from 5.25 highs in 2006 to 2007. Not only was Fed Funds deeply oversold and extraordinarily ready for liftoff to true economic normalization but Queen Yellen decides instead of raise, she would purchase $60 billion more Treasuries per month. Fed Funds then was protected in 2015 to not trade lower or to zero or negative by the new Fed Repo Rate Facility.

Surely Yellen could travel against the grain of normal economics by raising interest rates at the same time to expand the money supply. Meanwhile the reason why Fed Funds traded to 0.20 was derived from past QE purchses as money supplies and interest rates from central bank to central bank since the start of time share an adverse relationship.

Then again GDP took a severe drop as is normal when interest rates drop and money supplies rise. Despite the Queen’s promise of economic recovery, Technology was the only feature in years of GDP data to experience growth.

Read the 1996 Telecommunications Act 1996 Section 2 and anyone would see Technology was given a green light to expansion Without technologial expansion, GDP would’ve traded to zero or lower as zero growth was seen during the Queen’s reign. Yellen missed the time and opportunity to normalize economics to interest rates and full recovery.

December 2015 began liftoff to 0.50 then 0.75 and now 1.50, known from prior posts in 2015, 2016 and 2017 is Fed Funds at 1.50 is more than skyrocket overbought. Fed Funds was overbought at 0.50 and 0.75 and 25 years of data was taken from not actual headline but actual Fed Funds as actual Fed Funds always trades below headline.

Why overbought on quick raises is by 2016 when Fed Funds traded to headline at 0.75, the averages in 2 years moved 2 basis points. Yellen raised into overbought and continued despite averages inability to travel higher.

The Natural Rate of interest at the 25 year average in March 2016 was 2.67, at the 20 year 2.24 and 1.70 at the 17 year average. At current 1.50, where Powell would be the final destination and does it matter. For the Natural Rate taken from the 25 year average and below resulted in a lower and lower rate.

Recall the great genius Knut Wiksell, when market rates trade above the Natural Rate, “bad things happen’ to include recession and crashes. Current short term market rates in USD and all G10 central banks except the BOE trade miles above headline for the past nearly 2 months and no sign to trade lower. USD is the current driver to the overall system as all central banks set rates based on USD.

In exchange rates, USD is way overbought and Non USD oversold. How long will this situation last. We’ve seen this situation many times before especially in EUR/USD on the way to 1.2500’s.

GBP/JPY traded from Sunday 147.46 to yesterday 148.25 ish for 100 pips then dropped to current 147.09. GBP/JPY is now not only Richter scale oversold but only 146.39 and 146.18 exist below. Below both rates, GBP/JPY becomes untouchable and a continuation of a long only strategy. Potential higher is quite astounding.

EUR/USD break point now 1.2121 and absolute daily bottom at 1.1868 is here as well as the multi month range bottom at 1.1836. At 1.1720 is only point to 1.1569.

GBP/USD long for the day at 1.3509 and last range point is 1.3309. Miles oversold is GBP.

USD/JPY break point now 108.85 and a break lower then for today next 108.39. Above watch 109.18 and 109.47.

EUR/AUD from 1.6100’s achieved 1.5839 and on the way to 1.5700’s. Can’t follow big long term trades to conclusion as marker memories went dead. Yesterday is gone, tomorrow doesn’t count and only today is the focus. Next break point 1.5816 and top today at 1.5865.

EUR/GBP just broke 0.8796, watch lows at 0.8739 and strong daily support at 0.8719.

EUR/CHF look for rise from 1.1855.

AUD/EUR 0.6303 assists AUD/USD higher on a long only strategy.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Levels, Ranges and Targets as titled is fully descriptive in my estimation to encompass the comprehensiveness to currency and all market prices based on my many years inside assorted models, trades and views. The range aspect as it pertains to EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CAD to describe February to current day highlights based on actual pip movements.

EUR/USD since Feb dropped roughly 600 pips from 1.2500’s to 1.1900’s while USD/JPY rose 600 pips since Feb from 104.70 to 109’s and now 110’s. EUR/USD wasn’t ready to break the 10 year average at then 1.2800’s and dropped while USD/JPY failed to break the 14 year average at 103’s and subsequently rose.

The end result after 3 months was a slow grind 600 pip range trade and reported week after week to the EUR topside drop and JPY rise. The compression story remains into week 11 however extremely slow as a EUR/USD topside drop and JPY rise continues to eventual showdown in the weeks ahead.

The sincere miss to EUR/USD shorts was the 1.2300 break as it allowed a clear 400 pip move to 1.1900’s. USD/JPY on its own volition began its severe confliction in the 107’s and 108’s as it became an uncertain currency pair in search of its next move. It traded to 110’s only on a break of 107’s and 108’s as it cleared the 106 clutters and the move higher was forced upon USD/JPY. The only clear move in the 600 pip rise was caught for 200 ish pips at the 104 bottoms to 106’s.

To CAD’s 600 pips, remember the March 14th CAD trade and the 600 pip drop in USD/CAD from 1.3100’s to 1.2500’s. This trade was done in weeks as well as CAD/JPY. Both USD/CAD and risk measure CAD/JPY remained severely stuck after the drop in barely 200 – 300 pip ranges. Both pairs remains stuck today, 9 weeks later.

The commonality to currency markets in the last 3 weeks and into today was cross pairs became settled in 100 to 150 ranges while as written the next move had to derive from the USD and non USD pairs. The Carney comments forced the move yet the Carney statements were unforeseen. Known prior was the move was coming while not known was the origination. A currency price viewed as an economic document and leading indicator contained 2 choices to force the USD V Non move and those distinctions were a misaligned economic announcement or central bank statement.

EUR/USD is now deeply oversold as prior overbought in the 1.1200’s, 1.1300’s and 1.1500’s eliminated as written on the drop to 1.1900’s. Massive oversold supports exist in the 1.1700’s 1.1800’s and 1.1944 at the 5 year average.

Higher EUR/USD targets 1.2033 on a break of 1.1998 and 1.2015. EUR/USD will severely struggle at 1.2079, 1.2082 and 1.2085 as it approaches its vital break point to travel higher at 1.2142. A massive cluster of resistance surrounds 1.2142 at 1.2147 and 1.2163. Only on clearance to this area would EUR/USD target 1.2251. Until the cluster clears, higher EUR is viewed as a correction.

USD/JPY higher must clear 110.01, 5 year average at 110.04 then comes 110.45, 110.53 and 111.05. Higher to 110’s must clear 109.13, 109.25, 109.43 and 109.94. Watch 109.94 for reversal. USD/JPY rises comes slowly and painfully as the absolute top is located at 113’s.

USD/JPY as seen in USD/CAD contains miles of downside but USD/JPY is held by the Fed’s promise to raise Fed Funds into an already skyrocket overbought Fed Funds rate.

Lower USD/JPY must break 108.85 to target 107.79, 107.75 and 107.14. Good longs at 107.14 to target 107.75.

GBP/USD overall range is wide and located from 1.3308 to 1.3901. Longs are the way this week to target 1.3637, 1.3701 then rough points at 1.3766 and 1.3777. The overall break point for higher is located at 1.3810 but in the way is 1.3855. Overall, GBP is oversold and has every ability to fly much higher to target 1.4200’s in the weeks ahead.

AUD/USD remains deeply oversold and far more oversold from the last report. In AUD, the deeper downside is viewed as a fantasy. At 0.7100’s represents severe extremes at 0.7400’s is done and below 0.7566 is untouchable. AUD contains great potential to travel much higher to 0.7700’s.

Longs this week targets 0.7577 and 0.7596 on the way to AUD’s overall break point at 0.7676 and 0.7695.

GBP/JPY deeply oversold targets easily 149.59 and on the way to its break point at 150.29. Longs only is the only strategy.
AUD/JPY remains as well highly oversold and the break point is located at 83.57.

USD/CHF as well is heading for a deep correction to first 0.9880 then 0.9809. Higher must break 1.0129 to target 1.0195. USD/CHF in the 0.9700’s is well protected by many and massive supports. Seen as well in USD/CHF is a highly conflicted currency pair.

USD/CAD closed this week at 1.2845 and last week 1.2830. The range is located from overbought 1.2754 to 1.2982 and 1.3038 for an overall 284 pip range. USD/CAD since March 14th continues its barely 300 pip range. The only approach is sell price rises as further overbought begins at 1.2865 and 1.2891. Overall, miles of downside exists to USD/CAD especially 1.2500’s on a break of 1.2754. Look for a move lower to 1.2830 then 1.2792.

NZD/USD remains not a thrilling currency pair. Overall break point for higher is 0.7147 and a move higher is expected and targets 0.7069 and 0.7079. Above 0.7147 targets 0.7184.

Overall USD is heading for corrections and Non USD higher to solve overbought and oversold conditions rather than any type of trend.

Pertinent to USD this week is first Secured Overnight Funding Rate 1 month and 3 month Futures contracts set to begin trading Monday May 7. SOFR was introduced as a substitute/ replacement to Libor and first launched April 3rd at 1.80 and since dropped to 1.70 against Friday’s close at 1.74. Fed Funds on the other side closed at 1.70 in 9 of the past 10 days. The overall effects to USD so far is irrelevant, so far.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The currency price is again the topic.

How about the number 2500. The EUR/USD bottomed at 1.03 and headed to a correction but to where was the end of the correction. EUR/USD 1.03 plus 2500 = 1.2800. GBP/USD bottomed at 1.1900. GBP/USD 1.1900 plus 2500 = 1.4400.
How is Danske, Society General and Bank of America doing against EUR/USD 1.3000. Will USD/JPY see 116 in 3 months as is the current prognostication for Bank of America. Of course not and don’t push your luck to 113.

A 116 USD/JPY assumes EUR/USD 1.1300’s. EUR/USD 1.1200’s and 1.1300’s are absolute bottom of the range while 113 USD/JPY is top. Do we know what we are doing.

From 1998 to 2008 and from 2008 to 2015, the number 2500 held deep significance but how it stacks up today and how close is 2500 is unknown. To know 2500 is to enter and calculate many numbers and most won’t perform the necessary work.
USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs are creatures of a far different animal than its counterpart currency pairs as 2500 requires a constant adjustment. Again, this is much work to know.

See EUR/AUD target at 1.5939 Wedneday. Its traded to 1.5863. It also required an adjustment. Remember the overall target at 1.5738 from 1.6100’s. Don’t lose sight. See EUR/NZD 1.7027 target, it traded to 1.7006 and required adjustment.
What are prices banks trade. Always the wrong price as they don’t trade central bank numbers but trade their own thin air, phantom numbers.

Short term simple moving averages. How do you know the price of the average is correct. How is 1 average overbought or oversold but a complementary average reveals no information to overbought / oversold.

Option expiries, NY Cut, Order Boards, a currency price bid or offered as was reported by Bank of America no longer serves as relevant in currency markets today due to the new 2 year price structure. Structure, it exists.

Far more to markets and prices requires attention. . Forward Points are located between yields and throws off slightly forward exchange rates to spot prices.

EUR/USD, high side target 1.2032 and lows on a break of 1.1951, watch 1.1943, 1.1928 and 1.1913. Above break point 1.2154 and watch the 5 year average now at 1.1945.

GBP/USD high side target 1.3623 to 1.3632 and lows at 1.3528, 1.3511 and big break at 1.3503 to target 1.3494.

GBP/JPY break point is located at 150.44 and upside target is near 148.72 and bottom near 147.37.

USD/JPY 5 year average now 110.03. USD/JPY traded to 110.02 and brought markets to the brink then dropped. Break point below now 108.82, upside target see 109.60’s and solid supports at 108.92, and 108.86.

USD/CAD break point now 1.2751, sell rallies. Since March 14, USD/CAD remained traded in small ranges.

Brian Twomey

Brian Twomey Trade Signal Service

The question 15 years ago in 2004 as I began to trade currencies was what made the lights blink. As an adjunct college professor for the past 20+ years, I devoted my life and time in between class schedules to answer this question. Growth and answers began.

By 2008, I began to write as a freelancer for Stocks and Commodities and Investopedia about currency prices and all facets to currency markets. The highlight was the Welles Wilder interview and its still remembered by many to this very day. Later, articles were published in Fxtrader magazine.

In 2011, Inside the Currency Market was written and published by John Wiley and Bloomberg Press. Book sales never materialized and remained non existent to this day despite rave reviews and even a stunningly great review by Yale Professor and market trader, Brenda Jubin.

In 2012, I joined the Fxstreet network with assumption to sell books

Fxstreet 2012, I traded live and hit 25 specific price targets in front of 100,000 viewers. The word target and target prices failed to reach the trade lexicon in 2012. The result was 25 trades, 36 no sleep days and 2500 pips.

The 2012 trades here and Fxstreet CEO Francesc written words https://twbrian.wordpress.com/?s=20+reasons+to+visit+fxstreet.

As I was consumed with 100’s of daily e-mails, I assisted all and wrote Using the Z Score to trade FX in 2012 / 2013. Zero interest and no sales was the result and same as Inside the Currency Market.

2012, longtime friend Peter Wadkins from Thomson Reuters began to include me and my FX analysis/ trades in his commentaries but with hope for recognition and a chance to work with FX professionals. Never materialized.

2015, Academic paper was written to highlight by Regression analysis in 2 separate periods how EUR/JPY switches allegiance from EUR/USD to USD/JPY. The paper here http://www.scientificpapers.org/wp-content/files/1528_Brian_Twomey.pdf

15 years later after intense growth, I now run a small Signal trade service for 2 years now and open for interested.

Trades are offered for longer term to include weeks to days and daily trades for day traders. Day trades are based on an interest rate system and is deadly accurate as was the 2012 trades while longer term trades are based on what I will call simply a Moving Average system. All my own inventions based on intense research but all extremely accurate.

The charge is $300 per month for any currency pair and sent twice daily every trading day. We currently trade 8 pairs as follows, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/EUR which allows trades in EUR/AUD. The charge is for accuracy, time and ability to get the trades done quickly with profit.

If interested, I’m Brian Twomey, contact brian@btwomey.com.

As well open for any serious suggestions, inquiries. However, respectfully, not open for get rich quick schemes or overnight Warren Buffet types. Come sincere and honest, experienced or beginner and I will assist in the profits.

Thank you and respectfully, Brian
Below is from my blog twbrian.wordpress where anyone will find research, trades, analysis, education.

 

Trades
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I offer a consultancy opportunity for select individuals. This gives these individuals access to personalized, individual, trading information on a day to day basis. I provide information on multiple currency pairs, based on very specific data that I personally analyze.

For a paltry $300 per month, I will send each select individual who contracts with me for my consultancy, an analysis twice a day.

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Interested in taking advantage of this prime opportunity, contact me below:
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EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

EUR/CAD achieved mentioned 1.5300’s weeks later. EUR/CAD contains deep problems and GBP/CAD is the better trade.
EUR/AUD from Monday’s post broke 1.6037 then target at 1.5939 traded to 1.5960.

Overbought USD/CAD entry at 1.2860 and 1.2899 traded to 1.2915 and achieved lows at 1.2804 for + 100 ish pips. What’s 100 ish pips is 100 of 300 available. Again, nothing special in USD/CAD except quick trades. Break points are now located from 1.2741 to 1.3049 and USD/CAD remains in sell rally mode.

EUR/NZD now trades at critical 1.7089. Next target is located at 1.7027. Again, EUR/NZD is a far better pair to trade than GBP/NZD as entry, exits and targets are crystal clear. Overall range is located from 1.7240 to 1.7089 for 151 pips. Below 1.7089, range becomes 1.7089 to 1.6984 for 105 pips. Overall range is 255 pips but split between break points.

EUR/USD 5 year average at 1.1947 matches against USD/JPY’s 5 year at 110.01.

USD/JPY solid break points today above are located at 110.04, 110.08, 110.17, and 110.43. USD/JPY must sustain 110.01 then next target becomes 110.95 but 110.01 assumes EUR/USD breaks 1.1947 and its not likely today. The problem with USD/JPY this week is any price above 109.69 enters a gray area and its not a trade able zone. The overall path to break 110.01 is not clear.
USD/JPY below break points is now 108.71.

EUR/USD today is well contained at 1.1977, 1.1970, 1.1955 and ironically 1.1947. EUR/USD today has every ability to trade to 1.1947 but no ability to break and hold. Two factors against a further break is deeply oversold EUR/USD and Euro interest rates radically dived overnight. A radical dive or radical move overall in Euro interest rates is a non existent concept. Even when the Fed raised, Euro interest rates remained at current levels. Don’t take 1.1947 lightly.

EUR/USD break point today is found at 1.2184 and an upside target right around 1.2058 on a break of 1.2052.

GBP/USD today upside targets finds massive resistance from 1.3660 to 1.3674.

GBP/JPY break point is now 150.79.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, G10, Currency Pair Selection: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Currency pair selection in relation to a 50 and 75 range factor means overall currency pair choices are incredibly slim. By process of elimination and to account for overall ranges and trades to move 100 and 150 pips, this week picks are GBP/CAD, EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and against a deep inspection to EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD as well as AUD/JPY longs.

EUR/AUD overall remained a constant pair since March 14th. EUR/CAD despite a miserable currency pair and choice will remain a constant pair only because of overbought status otherwise this pair loses any consideration from now to doomsday.

USD/CAD shorts as well is considered this week but only because of skyrocket overbought status. Recall March 14 and the 600 pip drop from 1.3100’s. Written was USD/CAD was dead and eliminated from long term consideration as the range was 300 pips. Now 6 weeks later, USD/CAD remains dead inside a range of 300 pips from 1.2722 to 1.2926 and top of the channel at 1.3049.

Nothing special in USD/CAD yet USD/CAD as a choice always moves far better than USD/JPY and USD/CHF because of CAD wide ranges, good movements, target responsive and CAD triggers contain miles of difference from JPY and CHF to allow its movements.

By process of overall elimination, 28 pairs are available to trade in the G10 space but many pairs are slow movers and eliminated from consideration. USD/CHF and CHF pairs are rarely regarded and this strikes CAD/CHF, EUR/CHF, AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF and GBP/CHF. Only regard to CHF pairs is trade as complements but rarely trades for long term consideration.

EUR/GBP, AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD as well eliminates although we caught a 200 ish pip trade in EUR/GBP and minor trade in AUD/NZD. Both EUR/GBP and AUD/NZD contains deep internal problems while AUD/CAD was designed as a non mover.

In JPY cross pairs, EUR/JPY is eliminated as the range is 128 to 133.11 tops but below 133.11 must break 132.74 and 132.44 then comes the 14 year average at 131.56 and 5 year at 130.85. AUD/JPY remains deeply oversold and trades at the lowest rung to its long term range. CHF/JPY and NZD/JPY in the current slow move environment lack any consideration.

GBP/JPY trades on a far different plane than its counterparts as movements are built into its price. Current 150.88 must break for higher in GBP/JPY.

EUR/NZD clearly beats GBP/NZD as GBP/NZD contains skitzy qualities by itself and against NZD/USD. GBP/NZD trades 300 pips from 1.9200’s to 1.9500’s and overall trades in a larger correction below 2.0698. The EUR/NZD trade is well established in movements and break points and may qualify as a continued trade next week.

GBP/CAD’s break point at 1.7900’s was clear and today it trades at 1.7500’s. GBP/CAD should also qualify as next weel’s trade.
EUR/AUD clearly beats GBP/AUD as EUR/AUD is well established in movements and break points while GBP/AUD was never designed to move. Consider weekend cocktail party information below from the glorious days of currency trading in the 1920’s and 1930’s.

AUD/GBP 3/31/1919 traded 0.3333 or GBP/AUD 3.0003. By 6/30/ 1931, AUD/GBP was 0.3846 or GBP/AUD 2.6001 and moved 4000 pips in 12 years or 300 pips per year. Today GBP/AUD trades 1.8204 and moved lower by 7700 pips since 1931 or 87 years.

To ensure cocktail party success, here’s AUD/USD, AUD/USD 1919 to June 6/30/1931, Ranged 2.4300, 2.2300, 2.2200. By June 1931, AUD/USD traded to 1.8000. Current 0.7500’s represents a 99 year downtrend, lowest in History.

To restate and end. Trades must contain 100 to 150 pip targets or no trade exists, many pairs fail qualification currently. Selection is key and only offered in a few currency pairs. A 300 pip range is quite dead if considered as 150 pips on 1 side to trade upon a move from significant break points.

Trades.

DXY recall 2 weeks ago the 5 year average at 91.45 and DXY now trades 92.05. Lends deep consideration to EUR/USD’s 5 year at 1.1949 and USD/JPY at 110.01. A 5 year average break offers clearer direction and more available pairs to trade yet a 5 year average doesn’t contain the period change power to a 10 year average break. Its just means established direction and wider ranges.

EUR/USD 1.1949 below but is contained today at 1.2029, 1.2013 and 1.1998. Break point above now 1.2188, drops 25 pips from 1.2213.

GBP/USD. Watch bottoms at 1.3695 and 1.3678 and break point now at 1.3886, drops 29 pips from 1.3715.

GBP/JPY contained below by 149.87 and 149.68.

USD/JPY break point now 108.68 and below contained by 109.02 and 108.89. Recall above 109.43 and 109.69.

AUD/USD break point 0.7702, belongs at 0.7649 and above 0.7702 then 0.7838. At 0.7100 is loacted at deepest extreme prices and I wouldn’t advise pushing the envelope.

NZD/USD must break above 0.7175. Contained to below at 0.7012, 0.7003 and 0.6994.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The common theme to currency market prices this week from a cross section of 10 various yet pertinent currency pairs is prices remain trading around significant break points. This means price ranges trade from roughly 50 pips in USD and Non USD pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY to 75 pips in more wider ranging cross pairs in EUR/AUD, GBP/CAD, EUR/NZD and EUR/CAD.

JPY cross pairs remain challenged and as examples EUR/JPY 133.11, clear uncertainty in risk pair CAD/JPY yet a clear direction higher for AUD/JPY.

Trade around significant break points adds to not only distinctly settled prices but uncertainty dominates current prices as clear direction remains a challenge for many pairs and this means overall the choice to which pairs to trade for greatest gains must be highly selective. Settled prices remained the theme last week, seen this week and unless prices get moving to crack break points then the same overall market order will be seen next week.

Long term forecasts and themes are the result of price views over time horizons and remains for weeks, to 1 month to multi months. Currency settled prices for example now enters week 3 and reported weeks ago.

GBP last week was the outlier as it broke widely reported 1.3915. The break represented a new range from 1.3915 to 1.3317 from last range at 1.3915 to 1.4502. The greatness of the Great British Pound is movements and ranges are wide with terrific movement potential but it loses its greatness as it desires to follow or not to follow overall market prices.

Yet the follow, not follow theme changed in market prices alongside the new interest rate structure in place for 2 years.

Traditional GBP was for decades market leader and all prices automatically followed but GBP dropped 185 pips and remainder pairs except GBP remained range bound. Certain days, EUR becomes leader while all pairs trade ranges. Currency pair selection becomes highly significant to the new market order.

EUR/USD’s larger range drops another 6 pips this week to 490 pips inside an overall range from 1.1836 to 1.2819. Since February 23rd, EUR’s larger range dropped 34 pips and most responsible is the topside fall as bottoms remain week after week to form significant supports. The 1.1200’s, 1.1300’s and 1.1500’s are attributable to the topside drops as those points remain overbought and a lower EUR requires ability for lower averages to rise and work off overbought before EUR will see a lasting trend higher.

While 1.1836 to 1.2819 is reported as current ranges, actual range is located from the 5 and 10 year averages from 1.1948 to 1.2779. Chances of a break at 1.2779 are extremely slim.

EUR/USD break point is located at 1.2213 to offer targets at 1.2262, 1.2289 and a solid line at 1.2300. Below 1.2150 and 1.2162 offer supports then 1.2082, and 1.2018. Watch for longs at 1.2104. Same tired EUR is expected however below 1.2213 then rises are corrections.

USD/JPY topside is the story to drop USD/JPY this week. Falling against USD/JPY to move higher is 109.69 and 109.43. The break point however is located at 108.52. USD/JPY remains highly conflicted as no direction or trend is established. The break last week at 108.04 and 108.17 was driven strictly by USD short rates. Above 108.52 represents a correction while below then 108.17 and 108.00 then 107.32 and 107.12.

EUR/NZD. Watch 1.7089.

EUR/AUD watch 1.6037 and lower to 1.5939.

GBP/USD watch this week longs at 1.3720 if seen and break point remains rough at 1.3910 and 1.3915. Above 1.3915 targets 1.4110 and longer term 1.4216. Until 1.3915 breaks and it doesn’t appear likely, price rises as in EUR/USD are corrections.

AUD/USD’s 247 pip drop significantly performed great damage as AUD remains highly oversold and should trade to 0.7649 and much higher longer term. Tall order for AUD yet its potential higher is astounding. At 0.7592 and 0.7569 are only break points lower. Long any drops is the only trade. Bank calls for a 0.7100 AUD lacks any credibility as 0.7503 hits extremes and longer term 0.7410 as well remains nearly impossible then consider a slower range movement to AUD and 0.7100 appears more impossible.

Only a possible OCR drop would perhaps see 0.7100 but the RBA is talking raise by 2019 and Domestic conditions overall are currently running strong against Household Consumption up, Domestic Demand up, employment up, temporary drop in exports, GDP expected higher, Inflation lower.

USD/CAD’s significant overbought targets lower prices while 1.2722 remains the level to see much lower on a break. Price rises are slated as shorts due to overbought. At 1.2860 and 1.2899 is not expected due to extreme prices but good sell points in case of market flukes.

Brian Twomey

 

EUR/USD, G10, More UK Interest Rates: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Day 2 and GBP again begins its move as expected and as intended by the new UK system. GBP/USD dropped 47 pips at this same time yesterday and the only economic release was GBP Mortgage Approvals and an as expected release. GBP/USD today dropped 83 pips.

For 2 straight days, GBP dropped but GBP had an equal chance to rise yet it didn’t nor couldn’t because the BOE for 2 days created a GBP fall. How many of the 35 trades scored 2, 3 and 400 pips without mention of the word economic release. A known target trades to target yet how the target achieves its destination could’ve factored to many aspects and not economics alone. The concept “Priced In” is another general term without purpose or meaning.

The BOE and all central banks revamped interest rates and the missing word is exchange rates. To revamp exchange rates alone is impossible because to many exchange rates exist and a re do to interest rates contains the indirect effects to the exchange rate.

Think the progression Money Supply, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, economic release. An economic release is last on the chain of concern and its effects are indirect to the exchange rate. Can a central bank work backwards and create an economic system to comply with Money Supplies, Interest Rates and exchange rates. Its impossible as the system must work to build forward from money supply to economics. Can the greatest mathematicians of our time calculate backwards.

The rehabilitation to interest rates intended purpose was strictly for banks for a redesign to a lend /borrow, buy /sell system for profit to lend inside the respective nation. The exchange rate is irrelevant.

The unfair advantage for the extremely few trading banks for the day trade as interest rates is the “How To” aspects are not known nor written in bank training manuals, or trading books or academic papers. Its a self taught concept to either join the trading crowd or fall behind and trade the leftover levels. Every trader on the planet has the same opportunities as the trading banks but few take advantage.

Most important to unfair advantage is known far ahead the choice of currency pair to trade. How many banks for example are interested to trade EUR/CAD, AUD/NZD, CHF/JPY, AUD/CAD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY.

GBP/USD broke its vital 1.3921 and now trades deeply into 1.3770’s. Look for a return to 1.3844.

GBP/JPY broke its level at 151.03. Look for higher to first 150.88 and a break at 150.92.

EUR/USD is again contained below at 1.2062, 1.2049 and 1.2040. Break point for higher is today at 1.2216.

USD/JPY traded 109.49 and just short of next most important 109.59. Target is 109.83 above 109.59. Break below is located at 108.48.
Overbought USD/CAD break is located at 1.2720.

Much lower for EUR/NZD against break points at 1.7046 and 1.6955.

EUR/AUD targets 1.5805.

 

Brian Twomey

 

EUR/USD, G10, UK Interest Rates: levels, Ranges, Targets

GBP/USD yesterday as mentioned broke above its vital break point at 1.3948 and target 1.3997 hit perfectly. Monday’s launch to the 2 year finalization of UK interest rates traded perfectly all week until today when GBP/USD dropped 47 pips on the time frame as intended. UK interest rates were clearly responsible.

UK bankers, interest rate and swap traders are now masters of the GBP road and they will respectfully, beat the day traders by many miles because they factor far ahead. Bankers knowledge is far superior to the vast majority of traders as they know not only the targeted levels and prices but they know the day, hour and minutes targets achieve.

Actually, the bankers contain an unfair advantage because they earn the easiest pips and leave meaningless levels for other traders to trade and earn nothing. If a GBP trader today earns 47 pips or better than thankfully count your gifts. Editorially, I don’t allow the bankers to beat me but its a daunting task as the bankers are fast, brilliant and experts.

The central banks went beyond concepts of control but they brought a deeper perspective as they professionalized the currency price. As I’m inside nation’s interest rates daily for 2+ years and I know deeply every traded interest rate, the assumption is GBP is set, defined and predetermined. Its boxed and set in stone.

No such concept exists as to a wandering or meandering currency price. Those days as once existed are now gone. The new expertse to trading is earn the pips without unearned pips flying past without profits. GBP/USD for example dropped 100 pips today and rose 49 for 140 available pips.

GBP/USD bottoms today are contained by 1.3929, 1.3905, 1.3887 and 1.3876. GBP/USD must break above now 1.3935 to target 1.3976 and 1.4002. What is offered here is exact to align with the bankers.

GBP/JPY. Yesterday’s upside target at 153.14 on a break of 152.74 achieved 152.55. Only other mention to GBP/JPY yesterday was break point at 150.94 and today the break is located at 150.97. Look for bottom containment today at 152.07, 151.88 and 151.79.

USD/JPY vital break yesterday was 108.25 and today 108.37. Yesterday’s 109.21 and 109.24 was adjusted downward to 109.09. Look for 109.09 today as well as 108.94 and 108.82 to contain. Upside target is set high today at 109.89 on break of 109.64 and 109.67.

EUR/JPY mentioned ad nauseam 133.11 and 133.43 was traded Tuesday. A big move is coming for EUR/JPY and shorts is the only way.Watch today 133.33 and 133.58.

EUR/USD Yesterday’s 1.2240 break point is now 1.2229. Above targets 1.2235. Below watch supports at 1.2144, 1.2128 and 1.2115.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD break point are located at 0.7740 and 0.7217.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and Daily Trades: Levels, Ranges, Targets

AUD/USD dropped 247 pips in 5 days from 0.7812 to 0.7565 or 49.4 pips per day. No correction yet to deeply oversold and below 0.7572 represents out of bounds for AUD. Bank of America forecasts 0.7100 on this efx site. This is the site where banks make erroneous calls to hedge funds, coupled with fancy pictures and high falutin jargon like USD/JPY rose to 109’s due to Japanese Importer interests. Meanwhile no mention to an interest rate drop to assist another 400 pip loss. AUD claims this bank has ability on its own based on yield spreads.

Seen AUD short interest rates lately, trading at exorbitantly high levels and generally this implies giant AUD supports on interest drops. Same concept when weeks ago, USD short rates began trading higher. It implied USD supports and the USD/JPY rise was seen from miles away because USD/JPY was forced higher as it didn’t have anymore to go.

Meanwhile the bottom of the 5 year average from 0.8106 is located at 0.7292. USD/AUD bottom in its 5 year average from 1.2451 is located at 0.7334. Another 400 pip drop assumes EUR/USD dives 400 pips to trade to 1.1800’s and breaks its 5 year average at 1.1951. But the ECB is talking interest rate rises and abdication from QE. No accountability for actions is what wins awards on the retail trading sites.

Leo Tolstoy. The 2 most powerful warriors are patience and time. Seems appropriate.

Daily Trades

EUR/USD from current 1.2206, vital break point above is located at 1.2240. Below, where to, not below 1.2148. Strong supports located at 1.2179 and 1.2172 then 1.2163 on breaks. Look for bounce at 1.2172 and 1.2179 to 1.2191.

GBP/USD broke above vital 1.3948. At 1.3956 vital support then 1.3948 and 1.3929 and 1.3911 bottom. Above 1.3948, targets are 1.3998 and 1.4028. By the way, any 1’s in a GBP/USD forecast. If not, pips are wrong so says the BOE. Don’t waste pips.

GBP/JPY. Current 152.27, vital break point 150.94. BOE’s job is control GBP/JPY or they lose GBP/USD. Up target 153.14 on break of 152.74. Watch 152.74 for reversal to 152.57 then 152.48.

USD/JPY. Vital break point 108.25. Up target 109.64 on break of 109.41. The reverse to 109.28 and 109.21.

NZD/USD. Vital break point 0.7231. Up target 0.7123 on break of 0.7114 then reverse to 0.7104 and 0.7095.

 

Brian Twomey

 

EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The concept of unsettled prices last month derived from cross pair misalignment to alignment. 35 + trades from cross pairs attested to this consideration and the pip counts earned answered the how far as well as 5 week time frame to alignment question.

Vast majority of today’s cross pairs after current alignment remain in ranges from 100 to 150 pips and nothing special yet to overall big moves. And this includes every cross pair on the planet. Only changes between currency pairs is letters and numbers. Highlighted pairs this week in EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD were exceptions to 100 to 150 ranges and known long before as correct trades.

After cross pair alignment, prices for all currency pairs were settled to include the USD and Non. The USD V Non led the charge as traditionally expected in sound currency market prices and the march resulted in breaks of major levels. EUR/USD longs for example must break above while USD pairs must break below levels. Even USD/PLN broke vital 3.4229 and dashed to 3.44 while AUD/NZD remained a troubled currency pair as 1.0700’s held.

The constant from generation to generation and 2000 years is exchange rate formulas and market structures haven’t changed one iota. What changed was market participants and whatever modern day tools, views and perceptions are employed. Today’s prices for example remain constant but its the central banks chipping away at the edges of structures. The changes are slight yet most prevalent.

USD/JPY broke 108.04 and 108.17 then traded to next reported level at 108.93. Below must break 108.15 to target lower prices at 107.32 and 107.08. Light years of downside exist for USD/JPY as it currently trades at top of its multi year range. The big bank call for 116 at Q3 end is impossible as the channel top is located at today’s 113.45. USD/JPY prices remain at war with each other and the rise to 108.93 was forced upon USD/JPY.

EUR/USD break point is located at 1.2248. Above then back on track to 1.2300’s. Overall, 1.1800’s and 1.1700’s now remain deeply oversold and for weeks the bottom supports began rising to protect deeper downside movements. The base formation reported over several weeks inside the guts of EUR/USD numbers I suspect will materialize at the end of the week review.
AUD/USD. Only points for AUD/USD downside are 0.7590 and 0.7572. AUD is now further into richter scale oversold and break point is located at 0.7763. AUD is heading far higher. AUD is not heading to 0.7100’s as the same big bank reported.
AUD/JPY remains today trading 17 pips higher from Sunday’s open. Break point is located at 83.93 and target is found just below. Buy dips.

GBP/USD dead stopped at reported 1.3919 then bounced. Above 1.3961 then higher. Massive resistance is located 1.4225 while next below is located at 1.3801 and 1.3772. Ranges are wide.

EUR/AUD remains the gift that keeps on giving. Sell rallies to 1.5900’s and 1.5700’s.

Massive overbought USD/CAD break point is located at 1.2680 while top channel is located at 1.3062. Shorts only is the way forward.

EUR/JPY 133.11 held again. Shorts only above.

Massively oversold NZD/USD higher means a break at 0.7244.

GBP/JPY 150.95 supports GBP/JPY.

Watch EUR/CAD 1.3719.

 

Brian Twomey

 

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

In the April 17th post, it was written currency prices were settled especially after last month’s 3 and 600 pip movements then BOE’s Carney April 20 offered price movements but not enough to disrupt the balance to offer significant price moves. USD/CAD and CAD crosses performed well but remained within their respective allowable pip movements.

Overall currency prices remain tight and within 50 and 100 ranges and no assistance from EUR/USD and USD/JPY as both pairs head into week 9 since February 23rd to more range compression. Settled prices and a tight market means the cross pairs as well as USD V non USD in the majors are equally affected but this also means the breakouts are not only on the way but price breaks must be seen.

A settled currency price is representative of a one moment in time concept but its impossible to settle Statistics therefore its a matter of time before volatility hits hard again and it should hit violently. The only unknown question is where will it come from, an interest rate rise or fall, misaligned economic announcement, a central bank statement, Trump.

Regards to EUR/USD, Nowotny and ECB speakers is the habit to mention central bank policy when the EUR/USD price is stuck. It was the same situation during the days of Jean Claude Trichet. The non credibility to Nowotny statements is European interest remain completely dead even as the Fed raised, , Euro interest rates failed to move.

Despite the 9 week range restriction to EUR/USD and USD/JPY , the overall effects reverberated only to EUR/USD and USD/JPY and not cross pairs as range restriction over 9 weeks informed the EUR/USD and USD/JPY trade strategy resorted to elimination of long term consideration to favor quick day trades. What informed USD/JPY and EUR/USD matters not one iota to overall currency markets is the past 35 trades and pip gains. Restriction meant look at other currency pairs.

Last week’s EUR/USD and USD/JPY as mentioned contained their best opportunity in 9 weeks to see upper and lower break points but the best offered was trade to the brink of 1.2253 and 108.04.

EUR/USD’s break point this week is now 1.2253 and a slow painful rise since March 10’s 1.2196. A higher EUR/USD to target 1.2395 must break 1.2294, 1.2324, 1.2329 and 1 .2361. Caution at 1.2361. Note 1.2395 as 1.2400’s were eliminated from break point consideration which means above 1.2395 then next points come at 1.2501 and 1.2534.

Below 1.2253 targets 1.2160, 1.2152, 1.2082 and 1.2021. EUR/USD remains overbought from 1.1200, 1.1300 and 1.1500’s and explains EUR/USD non ability to travel exorbitantly higher but also the 10 year average now drops from 1.2800 consideration to 1.2787. We’re cautiously looking at a higher EUR this week only because its deeply oversold from 1.2253, 1.1800 and 1.1700’s. But note 1.2282 close to 1.2395 is 79 pips and nothing special overall.

USD/JPY break points above are located at vital 108.04 then 108.17 and on a break comes 108.93. Below 107.32 and 107.08 then the many and massive supports in the 106.00’s begin at 106.62, 106.59 and travel to 106.14. As USD/JPY prices remain at war against each other, USD/JPY fails in trade consideration.

Currency pair agenda for trade consideration this week is cautious GBP/USD long but careful at 1.4054. GBP/USD in the 1.3900’s are many and massive from 1.3973, 1.3953 and 1.3919. Continuation of longs target 1.4224.

AUD/USD and AUD/JPY are deeply oversold. Short again EUR/AUD on price rises. An explosion is coming to EUR/NZD. Only short points remaining for EUR/GBP are 0.8811, 0.8775 and 0.8769 to target 0.8500’s.

EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD remains short on price rises. Overbought USD/CAD shorts are located at 1.2674 to resume the downtrend.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

When Mark Carney left the Bank of Canada to head the BOE, GBP/CAD became known as the “Carney Cross” and yesterday it performed to its designation.

GBP/CAD from last Friday, April 13th, achieved its destination overnight at target 1.7772 and now exit at 1.7782. Massive resistance faces GBP/CAD at 1.7700’s. The next big break point is located at 1.7705 then 1.7698 and 1.7611. Overall range is located from 1.8037 to 1.7705.

AUD/NZD despite big drops in AUD/USD and NZD/USD as well as both trading below vital break points, AUD/NZD sits dead and the 5 week range traded 188 pips from 1.0485 to 1.0673 . After 5 weeks and a 188 pip range, AUD/NZD is best described as a severe underperformer currency pair. Editorially, AUD/NZD is permanently excluded from trade consideration as other trade able currency pairs exist. A 188 pip range equates to 7.52 pips per day in 25 trade days.

USD/HKD, despite HKMA intervention last week, USD/HKD dropped 100 pips and against severe skyrocket overbought. Asia contains 2 most vital money market centers, Singapore and Hong Kong. The Chinese deal through Hong Kong in offshore USD/CNY and Onshore USD/CNH while the Japanese and most Asia nations deal through Singapore. Both USD/HKD and USD/SGD then remain quite stable in prices and movements. USD/SGD rose 36 pips in 2 days.

GBP/USD. Monday represents the finalization to the BOE’s 2 year interest rate revamp study . Release times will change as priority is devoted to separate wild news movements to a smoother traded currency price. Far more direction and control to GBP is granted to banks and interest rate traders as the prior BOE’s interactive system for interest rate look up was also revamped.

The BOE’s prior interactive system required advanced knowledge to trade GBP against interest rates. Now, the BOE forced interest rate traders to build their own interest rate curves and only those banks with prior interest rate knowledge contain this deep expertise as they deeply understand the interest rate changes.

One vital aspect to the change is the BOE created a sincere nightmare hurdle to obtain the necessary interest rates and only few banks are willing to take this time and to factor the curves. As I’m inside every nation’s interest rate system daily over many years, GBP from my perspective is still able to trade based on the BOE’s new system but how effective will the changes hold and can the BOE actually contain GBP volatility is questionable and only time will tell the tale.

EUR/USD look at 1.2309 and 1.2293 to hold then bounce today. Break point for much lower is now located at 1.2252 and a rising line.

EUR/CAD remains the only pair left from the 5 week trades and short is our trade. Watch EUR/CAD bounce today from 1.5558 and 1.5576 and 1.5579 to 1.5606 and 1.5621. Top of today’s channel is 1.5713 and excellent sell area.

AUD/USD is contained from 0.7669 to 0.7677. AUD price is deeply low and oversold and break point is now 0.7769. AUD will be reviewed after the close today for possible new upside target from 0.7836.

NZD/USD remains below its break point at 0.7260. EUR/NZD is again playing around its vital 1.7088.

USD/JPY break is located today 108.04. Upse target today located at 107.93 on break of 107.82.

EUR/AUD is again trading in the 1.6000’s, short is the way.

USD/PLN traded yesterday to its next break point above 1.3719 to 1.3816. Watch 1.4023 break, its close.

GBP/USD is close to its most vital break point at 1.3969. A break then much lower for GBP. Look for 1.3991 and 1.4007 to contain GBP today. Higher must break 1.4072 then 1.4097.

GBP/JPY big line break is located just below at 150.86. At 151.33 and 151.10 must hold or 150.86 becomes vulnerable to a break lower.

USD/CAD trades below most vital break at 1.2674 inside a small range from 1.2641 to 1.2674.

 

Brian Twomey