FX Weekly: EUR, CAD, GBP, China Fix, CNY

Into week 3 to the USD Vs Non USD divide, currency prices begin the week at far far extremes to each other. A rare time for currency markets as I don’t recall the last time such a development occurred. Weekly is seen possibly a few currency pairs at extremes but never all 28 currency pairs. EM is no different.


The early warning to problem currency markets and prices is the past 6 or so weeks when prices suffered range compression. Range compression informs market prices won’t trade correctly and markets are troubled. The pinpoint is today’s 5 year and longer averages as prices are on the verge of a possible break. Markets require a resolution in order to trade correctly again and trade by normal ranges.


EUR/USD 1.1482 vs USD/CAD 1.2203 is a great example yet the source to lead all currency prices to dead ranges.


The result for example is today’s EUR/USD and NZD/USD as severe problem pairs and a top and bottom. GBP/USD and AUD/USD as middle currency pairs are in great shape.


The simple strategy for the week is previous longs are now short and shorts are now longs.


FXStreet Charts


The normal charts used for many years went down and not many reliable sources exist anymore. FxStreet offers world class charts and frankly better than previous sources. Candles and prices are exact which is what I require as well as drawn lines to candles and all highlighted information such as open, high, low, close. The charts are easily accessible, easy to operate an easily to view. No magnifying glass required.


USD/CNY Fix, Central Bank Methodology and Candles


The USD/CNY Fix for Monday: 6.4350 and 6.4314. Previous 6.4354. Note CNY and not offshore CNH as most vital to trade China’s currency particularly NDF’s, Non Deliverable Forwards. The Fix is vital to trade and hedge NDF’s. Forecast correctly 24 hours in advance saves much money to hedge costs but also offers advance trades. Thank you to my long time friend and 40+ years trading and teaching Forward contracts.


The Fix is assumed to report from the ECB. CNY is a complicated currency as many more steps are involved.


EUR/CNY Fix


7.4714 and 7.4665. Both USD/CNY and EUR/CNY are oversold however USD/CNY is far more oversold than EUR/CNY. Means USD/CNY could see the low end FIX and EUR/CNY at the highs.

           USD/CNY 1 Hour Candle 

At Sunday’s open, 6.4351 to 6.4340.


Candle Predictions


Predicts any candle from 1 minute to hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and multi years.
Forecasts in advance by pen, paper and calculator using central bank methodology. Any currency on the planet.
The methodology applies to any Financial Instrument on the planet including any stock market, commodities. Interest Rates, Yields, bonds. Completed in 1 and 2 minutes.


Long Term Forecasts

GBP/USD trades from 1.3840 to 1.3480 and 1.3396. GBP/USD trades and functions extremely well.


EUR/AUD deeply oversold and trades from 1.5466, 1.5482, 1.5749, 1.5855 and 1.6023. Overall a well functioning currency.


NZD/USD. A troubled currency pair. Vital points 0.6864, 0.6923, 0.7047 and 0.7078. Above targets 0.7200’s.


EUR/GBP


Deeply oversold EUR/GBP approaches the 10 and 15 year averages just below at 0.8417 and 0.8402.


USD/CHF, USD/CAD and USD/JPY


This week USD/CHF and USD/CAD sit massive oversold while USD/JPY sits overbought from a monthly perspective. Long, long way to drop for USD/JPY as strategy remains short only and applies to JPY cross pairs. Watch USD/CHF 0.9218 for shorts and longs.


USD/EM vs EUR/EM


This week USD/EM and EUR/EM run neutral for most pairs.


USD/BRL and EUR/BRL both stand as neutral.
USD/DKK neutral Vs overbought EUR/DKK
USD/HRK neutral Vs Neutral EUR/HRK


USD/HUF neutral Vs slight overbought EUR/HUF
USD/KRW neutral Vs neutral EUR/KRW, watch 1371.64 for shorts
USD/MYR oversold Vs oversold EUR/MYR, nothing special here.


USD/NOK richter scale oversold Vs richter scale oversold EUR/NOK
USD/PLN neutral Vs Neutral EUR/PLN
USD/RON neutral Vs neutral EUR/RON


USD/SEK neutral vs Massive oversold EUR/SEK, great short
USD/TRY deeply overbought Vs massive overbought EUR/TRY
USD/ZAR Neutral Vs deep oversold EUR/ZAR and good long


USD/CAD and CAD/EM


USD/CAD begins the week deeply oversold and overbought CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY. No difference to deeply overbought CAD/EM from last week.


CAD/BRL nothing special here.
CAD/ZAR neutral
CAD/CNY overbought


CAD/DKK overbought
CAD/HRK overbought
CAD/HUF overbought


CAD/KRW overbought
CAD/MXN overbought
CAD/MYR overbought


CAD/NOK oversold
CAD/PLN overbought
CAD/RON overbought


CAD/SEK overbought
CAD/TRY overbought

Brian Twomey

FIX Prices and Candle Forecasts

 Brian Twomey now correctly Predicts Fix Prices, and any candle from 1 minute to hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and multi years. 

Forecasts in advance. Using central bank methodology. Any currency on the planet.

The methodology applies to any Financial Instrument on the Planet including any stock market commodities. Interest Rates, Yields, bonds

Whatever you trade, I have it for you.


I’m not your Run of the mill trader. I am highly skilled, well researched and miles ahead of anybody out there.

No such concept as losses as central bank methodologies are designed to win

An hourly candle for example may have a high and low, 2 supports, 2 resistance points.

If interested, contact brian@btwomey.com

For weekly Currency trades contact brian@btwomey.com

Long Term Targets: JPY, EUR, CAD, AUD

For many new friends and followers. Long term trades I define as 5, 8 and 1000 pips trades. Long term trades are the easiest trades and targets achieve perfectly as demonstrated a million times.


For 2021, the only trade available among 28 currency pairs was CHF/JPY with a 115 target. So far, 122.00’s achieved lows at high 116.00’s, lows 117.00’s for 500 ish pips. My theory is long term trades become available every 2 years or so and complies to a currency pair goes on the move every 2 weeks. More investigation is required.


Long term trades in past years achieved targets in 3 to 4 weeks and 7 to 8 weeks for currencies such as EUR/AUD. Today’s markets are quite different for many reasons as price speeds are under a severe slowdown.

CHF/JPY for example took 3 ish months to 116.00’s and 117.00’s. In past years, a 500 pip CHF/JPY trade took 3 weeks. The central banks by dead interest rates are killing price speeds.


Slow speed explanation is derived as the 12 1/2 year of the 4th quadrant of 50 years. Year 2022 marks 50 years since the 1972 free float and 2024 is derived 50 years since the BOE creation in 1694.


Markets as we know it today are over and done as a new 1st quadrant period will soon emerge. Current 4th quadrant shenanigans such as money supply explosions, negative interest rates, covid, taper, CPI targets and other experiments is the phenomenon of 4th periods and we’ve seen this many times before since 1694. Today is no different.


USD/JPY and JPY cross Pairs


As mentioned over 3 and 4 months, short only strategies. The explosion higher in USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs now offers easy trades. We want the easy, no struggle trades and the gift is upon us. For every pip higher respresents short profit pips.


USD/JPY targets 109.50 by breaks lower at 110.47, 110.39 and 110.31.


GBP/JPY trades at the top of the range and targets 151.78.
EUR/JPY targets 129.24 by breaks at 129.42.
NZD/JPY not a favorite currency targets 76.57 by breaks at 77.46, 77.01 and 76.94.


CAD/JPY targets 88.36 by breaks at 87.38, 87.29 and 87.18.


AUD/JPY a deeply respected currency pair targets deep caution at 81.33. AUD/JPY trades at the top of the range. and won’t achieve this target easily.


GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD


GBP/CAD targets easily 1.7109 by breaks higher at 1.7058, 1.7085, 1.7090. No thrills to GBP/CAD long term as EUR/CAD is a much better currency. Contemplation to drop GBP/CAD from weekly consideration in favor of EUR/CAD as EUR/CAD will outperform GBP/CAD.


EUR/CAD targets 1.4798 by breaks higher at 1.4497, 1.4510 and 1.4729.


EUR/USD


EUR/USD weekly is off the favored list as EUR turned into a miserable currency. EUR/USD targets `1.1803 on breaks higher at 1.1620, 1.1665 and 1.1724. Break lower at the 5 year average at 1.1481 targets much lower for EUR/USD. Do or Die.


USD/CAD big break lower at 1.2351 targets caution at the 10 year average at 1.2202, 1.2063 then 1.1808. Above 1.2351 targets 1.2537 and 1.2547. Do or Die for CAD.


AUD/USD


AUD/USD is a deeply respected currency pair as its long term averages held steady over 4 and 5 years. Target at 0.7166 must break lower at 0.7404, 0.7398, 0.7387, 0.7285 and 0.7237. Caution as AUD/USD contains easy ability to trade to 0.7500’s and 0.7600’s. Weekly and daily trades are the best strategies.

Brian Twomey

Day Trade Changes, Part 2

From 3 numbers actually offers 4 possible ways to calculate for 1 number for day trade perfection. So far, its safe to pronounce 3 possible ways is correct yet which way is accurate and here is where it becomes interesting.


Markets are man made inventions so the investigation is not markets totally but what did they create and how is it constructed. The answer allows for perfection to traded markets.


After 4 days, calculated patterns are emerging and specific to each of 8 currency pairs.
EUR/USD day trade today is the exact same as last evening at the China open but factored 2 separate ways. This is a first. Same trade as last night means targets, support and resistance levels are identical.


USD/JPY today is perfect and the only sound currency while NZD/USD is way off.


How important are day trades and accuracy is seen in today’s NZD/USD. Factor NZD/USD wrong today and trades are off by 7 pips, 4 pips and 2 pips. In Asia trade last evening, NZD/USD was near perfect yet Asia trade last night and today’s day trade was factored 2 separate ways.


In comparison to the big trade services such as Bloomberg, Thomson and others to central banks, how are they doing for accuracy. The graduate school answer is it depends. The central banks are reliable yet possibly off but not normally enough to make a big difference.


Specific to the central banks is the vast majority trade by moving averages and certain math formulas associated to moving averages.


Thomson Reuters is the absolute hands down best to all traded markets and an old FX company from Scotland.


The trade services however depends on if they are lazy, rushed or follow the correct formulas. For the most part, they follow the scripts and on a few days, they throw out a number such as today’s NZD/USD.


Remember 3 numbers, easily factored by anybody to include a child of 10 and day trades are written in stone.


If you think the currency analysts and trade services are incompetent, check this Lie out to the 3 numbers.


based on indicative rates only contributed by market participants, accurate indications of bid and ask quotes that are derived from hundreds of quality sources, including indicative and executable price quotes from money-center and regional banks, broker-dealers, inter-dealer brokers, and trading platforms.


taking a Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP) of the geometric mid-rates, A linear TWAP of quotes will be used in a triangular function.


The biggest crock of garbage ever foisted on the trading public is now before you and makes currency analysts and trade services appear as saints knighted by the queen. None will make it to heaven.

Brian Twomey

FX Day Trade Changes

Changes are coming to FX day trades and the developments are not good. Post 2016 and the invention to brand new traded markets never seen before since the 1972 free float experienced central banks to hide the most appropriate interest rates and market information required to trade accurate day trades.


Central banks contracted information to Bloomberg, Thomson and others for big monthly fees yet if one knows what they are doing, no need exists to pay these people.
The central banks will work on delays next week to report Fx rates required for day trades. Took hours but I found how central banks factor exchange rates and ironically, its very simple.


Most important candles and times for Fx trading is 9:00 to 9:30 pm and 2:00 to 2;30 am EST. Required is 3 numbers and the day trades are set in stone as normal. The Fx price must enter and factor to central bank interest rates then the day trade is known and factored perfectly.


I assure all to 3 vital points. To know the correct numbers without its understanding and not factored to interest rates is a waste of time and energy because supports, resistance and ranges must be known from opposite exchange rates such as EUR/USD and USD/EUR.


Secondly, I now understand how computers beat every trader on the planet pre 2016 when the ECB reported at 8:30 am. EST. Its quite easy to know the correct numbers in advance much the same as computers did pre 2016 to beat every trader on the planet. Beat means to trade the best prices for best profits immediately and leave the scraps to retail traders.


Third, the 9:30 and 2:30 candle price is guaranteed wrong.


The 3 numbers required so far to consistent calculations are GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD but 3 numbers changed calculations to EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY. Its assumed AUD/EUR is on the consistent list.


The monster in the crowd is GBP/JPY yet it remains a highly special currency pair as calculations change and the prices are never correct from central bank to central bank and the reporting services. Bloomberg and Thomson and others.


GBP/JPY is always close to correct but never perfect. We want accuracy and perfection but GBP/JPY will never offer perfection. The exchange rate number is to large as the main problem but in legacy terms, the exchange rate number was always to large dating to the 1930’s.


Remember the purpose to day trades as reported 2016 by central banks: to trade UK, Europe and USD 8:30 am news announcements and all within a 7 1/2 hour period. If the central banks go through with proposed delays and we wait then the mission is viable to trade news announcements and day trades.


Or the question is can I calculate fast enough and correctly to beat the central banks. I don’t know the answer yet especially on 9 currency pairs. We’ve seen these types of delay proposals before and central banks backed off by assumption from complainers.

We trade day trades twice daily so stay tuned.

Brian Twomey

10 Year Yield and USD/JPY

The 10 year Treasury yield closed Friday at 1.6146. As posted September 29, the 10 year traded then 1.51 and the next big break for higher prices was located at exactly 1.6146.


A break higher targets the 25 point range from 1.6146 to 1.8696. Below 1.6146 targets a 38 point range from 1.6146 to 1.2290 against 1.4218. The 5 year average is located at 1.9321 and 1.8696 is required to break and targets a 6 point range.


The 10 year and 2 spread runs currently 1.2922 and 1.56 for the 10 and 3 month. The 2 year traded last week 6 points and straight up from 0.2603 to 0.3238 while the 10 year traded from 1.454 to 1.616 or 16 points.


10 Year Daily Trade

Here is the point where interest rates predict interest rates the same manner and principle as exchange rates predict exchange rates.


Next target on the bottom is located at 1.6045 and topside targets 1.6247 then 1.6286.


USD/JPY traveled last week from 110.80 to 112.26 and highs today at 113.02. Any price last week was overbought from 111.51. USD/JPY traded 151 overbought pips. from low 113.00’s and high 112.00’s, short is the only trade and targets easily 150 pips lower.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: EUR, CAD, JPY, NZD, AUD, EM

Overall currency markets trade at far extremes into week 3 as the USD V Non divide grew much wider. The divide affects EM currencies as all trade to richter scale maximal extremes. The trend to current EM extremes is the result of G28 currencies particularly EM interest rates as EM interest rates allows for wider movements than G28 currencies.


Nations are classified as interest rate and Repo rates as main headlines. Repo rate nations include ZAR, TRY, SEK, NOK, RUB, CNY as all are afforded wider movements due to Repo rate distances while remainder nations classify as interest rates.


While the USD V Non gap retains wide distances, this situation actually represents enormous trade opportunity as downside and upside achieved low of lows and highs of highs.


EUR/USD begins the 3rd continuous week deeply oversold and price trades just above the 5 year average at 1.1480. Break below 1.1480 targets 1.0990.


EUR/USD price path above 1.1480 is highlighted by 2 vital points: 1.1739 and the 10 year average at 1.1960. Above 1.1480, EUR/USD contains a 259 pip trade range. Oversold EUR/USD matches richter scale overbought USD/CHF, USD/JPY, CAD/ZAR and EUR/EM.


Oversold in the EUR/USD complex is equated to EUR/CHF, EUR/CAD, EUR/NZD and EUR/GBP. Recall the post to 5 year averages. EUR/CAD broke below the 15 year average at 1.4554 and 10 year at 1.4481 to trade 1.4412 lows.


EUR/CAD higher is required to break above both averages otherwise, the target stands at 1.3638 however massive oversold EUR/CAD is forced higher by averages from 1.4700’s to 1.4900’s. Current EUR/CAD target for the week is located at 1.4629 and against a decent trade range.


GBP/CAD is located in a similar situation as EUR/CAD. GBP/CAD’s 5 year average at 1.7056 broke below to achieve 1.6967 lows. Failure to break above 1.7056 targets 1.6613 however deeply oversold GBP/CAD averages from 1.7100’s to 1.7300’s forces GBP/CAD higher to target 1.7159.


Oversold AUD/CAD trades safely below 5 and 10 year averages at 0.9500;s and 0.9700 while NZD/CAD trades deeply oversold for the week and between 10 and 15 year averages at 0.8433 to 0.8820.

GBP/USD’s 5 year average at 1.3069 achieved target last week at 1.3617. USD/CAD as GBP/USD perfect opposite achieved target at 1.2642 from the 5 year average at 1.3065. and deeply oversold USD/CAD trades 200 pips below.

USD/CAD trades between the 5 and 10 year average from 1.2199 to 1.3065 while GBP/USD trades from 1.3069 to 1.4291 at the 5 and 10 year averages.


Best GBP trades this week as follows: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and GBP/CAD while GBP/AUD for the second week holds no promise as its position remains horrible. If the trade isn’t easy for guaranteed pips then its not worth the trouble to struggle through a trade.
GBP/EM.


GBP/EM sits deeply overbought for the week except for GBP/CNY, GBP/NOK and no excitement to GBP/ZAR. Massive overbought applies to GBP/BRL, GBP/CZK, GBP/DKK, GBP/HRK, GBP/HUF, GBP/KRW, GBP/PLN, GBP/RON and GBP/TRY.

NZD/JPY is again excluded from trade consideration while NZD/USD and NZD/CAD begin the week deeply oversold. NZD/CHF was dropped from trade examination this week to favor NZD/CAD. AUD/CHF and CAD/CHF are better trades and should outperform GBP/CHF.


NZD/EM


Oversold as NZD/EM is found NZD/CNY, NZD/MYR, NZD/NOK, and overbought NZD/DKK, NZD/HUF, NZD/KRW, NZD/PLN, NZD/RON and NZD/TRY.


Overall Mixed bag for NZD.


AUD/USD contains nothing special for the week and the same story as last week. AUD/USD’s main problem is its mis position to AUD/EUR. This leaves AUD/USD rangebound.


Oversold USD/CAD Vs overbought USD/JPY, USD/CHF and CHF/JPY begins the weekly alignment. USD/CAD again remains add ball currency into week 3.


Oversold USD/CAD complies to richter scale overbought CAD/EM and the same situation as last week. USD/CAD’s problem and the overall USD Vs Non USD conundrum is the EUR/USD and USD/CAD relationship as both spread 900 pips, 2000 to USD/CHF and DXY. The gaps must close. Overbought CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF assists to USD/CAD longs.


USD/CAD remains a higher performer for the past 6 weeks and this week won’t disappoint.


CAD/EM


From extreme overbought, CAD/EM trades are the same as last week except oversold CAD/BRL is added.


CAD/BRL targets 4.3416, CAD/DKK targets 5.0944, CAD/HUF targets 245.59, CAD/KRW targets 952.19, CAD/MYR targets 3.3325, CAD/PLN targets 3.1469, CAD/RON targets 3.3906, CAD/SEK targets 6.9503 and CAD/ZAR targets 11.8437.


USD/EM Vs EUR/EM


Both USD/EM and EUR/EM begins the week deeply overbought except oversold USD/CNY and EUR/CNY. USD/MYR and EUR/MYR, USD/NOK and EUR/NOK, USD/SEK and EUR/SEK. USD/ZAR and EUR/ZAR however both are close to vital breaks to rip open the USD Vs EUR divide.

       USD/CAD Weekly Trade 
      1st Leg

Long anywhere or 1.2450 to target 1.2553
2nd Leg
Long above 1.2581 to target 1.2637
3rd Leg
Short 1.2637 to target 1.2600
4th Leg
short 1.2553 to target 1.2506.

Brian Twomey

USD/CAD Target Achieved and Next Week

USD/CAD target at 1.2526 from 1.2609 achieved lows at 1.2532 for +77 pips. CAD weekly highs achieved 1.2648. USD/CAD day trade lows today are located at 1.2523, 1.2507 then 1.2492. Day trade highs today are found at 1.2594, 1.2602 and 1.2618.

Thanks to the Fed to offer today’s day trade and exact support and resistance levels. Any trader not offering above levels are as usual, wrong.


What materialized since last week, nothing except exchange rate numbers changed but positions vs each other remains the same.


As warned Option expiries is gaining strength among incompetents as a market ploy to find next victims. Pay no attention. Our world of trading sadly in the modern day is no longer about competence. Option expiries are released at 10:00 am along with Gold and traders have no business trading at 10 am.


As written Sunday, the current trade week was tough due to the massive USD Vs Non USD divide. The gap must close yet the gap widened and we deal with the same divide next week. The strategy is short USD as USD/CHF and USD/JPY and long EUR/USD and NZD/USD.


Long EUR/USD until low 1.1700’s trade and however long it takes. Long NZD/USD umtil high 0.6900’s, low 0.7000’s trade and however long it takes.

AUD/USD is ready for today’s reversal particularly around 0.7315 and 0.7330. GBP/USD at 1.3500’s sits oversold yet higher represents correction unless low 1.3700’s break higher.


EUR/JPY trades neutral heading into next week, overbought GBP/JPY, oversold AUD/JPY, overbought CHF/JPY, dead and oversold NZD/JPY and richter scale overbought CAD/JPY.


Best trades next week: CAD/JPY, GBP/JPY and CHF/JPY.


Short CHF/JPY complies to short CHF/EM. Easy and profitable trades found at CHF/EM currencies and begins with short CHF/PLN, CHF/CZK, CHF/DKK, CHF/HRK, CHF/HUF, CHF/KRW, CHF/MXN, CHF/RON,. The usual weekly suspects.

Next week, USD/CAD trade strategy is long and currently oversold. USD/CHF achieved massive overbought status to match richter scale overbought USD/JPY. Long for USD/CHF and USD/JPY are impossible as short is the only strategy.


CAD/CHF again trades massive overbought while AUD/CHF trades perfect neutral and oversold NZD/CHF.


EUR/GBP begins next week deeply oversold and interesting to GBP/USD. Most vital to next week is again the USD/CAD and EUR/USD relationship.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, NZD/USD and RBNZ

The RBNZ had 2 choices to interest rate decisions. Either New Zealand market interest rates required a drop or headline at 0.25 was forced to rise. RBNZ interest rates for many weeks traded in higher elevations without drops. The entire structure of rates traded in the vicinity of 150 basis points easily over the past 2 – 3 weeks and many miles above Fed rates.


At approximately 150 basis points matches the tracking of the Fed’s 10 year yield at current 1.51. New Zealand’s 10 year yield at 2.00 trades 50 basis points above USD’s 10 year and AUD’s 10 year trades alongside the Fed at current 1.57.


At 150 basis points broken down then means RBNZ rates trade right about 40 basis points above Fed rates and quite high from past years.


The RBNZ’s OCR rate traded far below headline for many weeks. The raise to 0.50 brought RBNZ’s average rates to a normal level from a massive miles high scale. Another raise would further drop the averages.


The RBNZ’s concern was averages and this required a drop because the 150 ish basis point range hasn’t changed which explains NZD/USD 50 pip move upon the raise announcement. NZD/USD lacked movement to its range.


The RBNZ’s move as usual was smart yet forced but also a forward view decision as the RBNZ is well prepared to raise again if and / or when the Fed raises but also prepared for a drop if economic times grow worse. A drop won’ t hurt the RBNZ nor NZD.


NZD/USD and EUR/USD trade massive oversold while AUD/USD and GBP/USD trade fairly neutral. The top and bottom, NZD and EUR oversold V middle currencies AUD and GBP neutral is perfectly correct to alignments.


NZD/USD targets easily 0.6984 and 0.6956 for today’s day trade. EUR/USD targets upper 1.1600’s, low 1.1700’s. For today’s day trade, EUR/USD targets 1.1613 and 1.1605 on a break of 1.1584.


USD/CAD trades oversold and miles overbought USD/JPY while USD/CHF turned fairly neutral. USD/JPY will become the odd ball currency next week to oversold /neutral to USD/CAD and USD/CHF.

Brian Twomey

USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY

USD/CAD as written Sunday: Short below 1.2609 to target 1.2526. USD/CAD achieved lows at 1.2544 for +65 pips. Target was off by 18 pips so long 1.2526 to target 1.2562 for 36 extra pips was nullified.


An extra leg to USD’CAD ‘s weekly trade should’ve been added as long above 1.2609 to target 1.2716 then stated was short 1.2716 to target 1.2633.


At 1.2609 broke higher and traded to 1.2640 for 31 pips.


We trade up then down and down and up perfectly all week as demonstrated. USD/CAD is operating correctly but CAD’s counterparts EUR/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF are off kilter and trading in non moveable ranges.


USD/JPY and USD/CHF began the week massive overbought and remains massive overbought while EUR/USD and NZD/USD began the week massive oversold and remains massive oversold. AUD/USD as written Sunday held neutrality although today’s drop takes places AUD in neutrality and no change for the week on a 65 pip range.


Unusual AUD/USD is newly defined as the world’s first fixed currency until the RBA’s headline interest rate at 0.10 changes. Daily support and resistance points are counted by your fingers as AUD doesn’t and can’t ever change. A change in Fed rates however would force the RBA to move the 0.10 headline rate as would be the case for all central banks.


All central banks follow the Fed, never to lead and only to follow if and when taper and interest rate changes materialize. Biden and the Democrats are in power therefore taper and interest rate changes are in deep question as long as Biden remains president.


My contention is Powell won’t be around much longer and will be replaced by a traditional democrat hardline communist type such as Yellen. Democrats are in no short supply to find hardline communists.


Taper and interest rate changes won’t be seen under this new communist. For now taper and interest rate changes are just dreams to be replaced by increased spending.
In the case of Powell’s replacement, politics leads economics. Economics is meaningless to politics, particularly when Democrats are in power.


GBP/JPY traded a 200 pip range, EUR/JPY 93 pips, and 68 pips for CAD/JPY, 91 pips for AUD/JPY and 30 pips for NZD/JPY. As written Sunday and correct. stand clear NZD/JPY.


USD V Non USD as in EUR/USD and NZD/USD must close the massive gap to USD/JPY and USD/CHF to again create better trade ranges. This means deeply oversold EUR/USD and NZD/USD higher and short USD/JPY and USD/CHF. Failure to close the gap then trades exist as long only EUR/USD and NZD/USD and short only USD/JPY. The best trade is short USD/JPY to 110.75 and EUR/USD long. No need to bother with USD/CHF.


The bright spot for the week was GBP as GBP/USD began the week deeply oversold and traded 100 pip straight up. GBP/USD now trades neutral, oversold GBP/JPY , neutral GBP/CHF, massive oversold GBP/CAD, deeply overbought GBP/NZD.


Higher EUR/USD for now represents a correction unless 1.1757 trades higher while the 5 year average remains below at 1.1400’s. EUR/USD’s trade range today is about 300 pips from 1.1400’s to 1.1700’s. At 1.1500’s, EUR/USD trades oversold at the low end of the range. EUR/USD matches to overbought USD/JPY for a double trade as USD/JPY is EUR/USD opposite.

Brian Twomey

CAD/EM, GBP/EM, NZD/EM Trade Results

In Weekly EM markets, only a few currencies are worthy to trade. A few equates to 5 and 7? currencies. And the same EM currencies weekly appears as a common them. CNY For example ran strong this week Vs USD, NZD, GBP and CAD. CZK also ran strong.


Weekly at least 1 currency of the 7 majors is worthy to trade the entire category with an established direction, entry and target. CAD/EM short this week across the board was this week’s 1 currency of the 7 majors then GBP and NZD.


Note the same currencies as for example, NZD/CNY, GBP/CNY and CAD/CNY.
Is USD really an opposite currency to trade against non USD. Note EUR/USD vs USD/CAD and the wide difference to prices. This wide division must close. Pre 2016, currency prices were uniform but after 2016’s interest rate changes, Currency prices became individualized.


When USD/CAD shot to 1.2800’s, EUR/USD didn’t move. When USD/CAD spiked lower last week to achieve 1.2629 target, EUR/USD didn’t move. Simultaneous long and longs or shorts and short to USD and non USD works post 2016.


NZD/CNY, GBP/CNY and CAD/CNY all achieved targets yesterday and in the same day.


Trade Results in order as posted Sunday.

NZD

NZD/CNY Target 4.5026, highs 4.5019 from 4.4740. +279 pips.
NZD/MYR target 2.9177, highs 2.9151. From 2.9006. +151 pips.
NZD/NOK open.


GBP


GBP/CNY target 8.7526, achieved from 8.7326. + 200 pips.
GBP/CZK target 29.6079, achieved from 29.5785. +294 pips.
GBP/MYR open and running profits.


CAD


CAD/DKK open and running profits.
CAD/HUF target 241.41, lows 241.93, from 243.72. +175 pips.
CAD/PLN target 3.1067, Lows 3.1097, from 3.1233, + 140 pips.
CAD/RON open and running profits.


6 trades complete, 1 day +1239 pips.


As usual no charts, graphs, fibs, stops. Trades achieved by pen, paper and calculator.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, USD/CAD and Divergence

Last week’s massive USD V Non USD divide created this week’s divergence to affect all cross pairs. Markets require agreement to movements and this week, agreement is non existent. Many currency pairs entered problem status to inform ranges are off kilter.


G28 currency pairs seem to run in 2 week intervals or 2 week cycles. This fits for example GBP/CHF and many others. Once the quick run ends then the currency pairs go dead for 1 to 2 weeks.


Overbought USD/JPY is matched by oversold JPY cross pairs. Overbought USD/JPY and USD/CHF are divergent to neutral CHF/JPY. Oversold EUR/NZD Vs neutral GBP/NZD. Oversold EUR/NZD is divergent to oversold NZD/USD. AUD/USD and AUD/EUR lack symmetry. AUD/NZD begins the week overbought to neutral AUD/USD. EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD begin the week in horrible positions.


Deeply oversold USD/CAD begins the week divergent to massive oversold EUR/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD.


NZD/EM, GBP/EM and AUD/EM currencies as well lack viable trades and direction. The bright spot after 5 weeks is USD/EM and EUR/EM are beginning to clearly diverge as USD/EM overbought and oversold EUR/EM. With proper movements this week, USD/EM and EUR/EM trades next week should open perfectly.


Best EM currencies this week are short USD/CZK and long EUR/CZK. Same for USD/KRK and EUR/HRK, USD/KRW and EUR/KRW, USD/MYR and EUR/MYR, USD/SEK and EUR/SEK, USD/ZAR and EUR/ZAR.


The best currency as a reflection to the entire currency market as EM and G28 is CAD/ZAR and CAD/ZAR is currently massive overbought to solidify compliance to overbought USD and oversold EUR/USD and non USD.


Weekly, at least 1 currency of the 7 majors exist in EM markets as stand alone to reflect clear winners and insight to trades. This week, USD/CAD and CAD/EM is the only currency in perfect agreement as short CAD/EM and long USD/CAD.


Most interesting to divergence this week is massive oversold USD/CAD and EUR/USD. EUR/USD 5 year average at 1.1478 and USD/CAD located just above at 1.3067. USD/CAD trades between GBP/USD and EUR/USD.


How is the health of G28 currency markets from September to October.


Average 27.8323 Vs September 4th 28.0032
Difference minus 1709 pips
Range today 7572 – 2005 pips


September Range 7619 vs 2018 pips
Range Changed by 3006 pips


From 28 currency pairs, each pair traded today 171 pips Vs September 172 or no change.


This means 172 pips for 1 month per 28 currency Pairs.


Markets are Dead and ready for the funeral.


You’ll see Stock Markets & commodities trade far less point movements than currencies which means currencies are the only game in town.


Overall, market prices are to High today and the same reading for September.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, CAD/EM

USD Vs non USD currency pairs remain the drivers this week as was the situation last week. Favored trades this week are found in EUR/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY. NZD/USD long moves high on the ranking this week to pass neutral AUD.

Neutral AUD contains divergence to AUD/EUR as overall currency markets correct from last week’s massive USD Vs Non USD divide. AUD chooses to sit the week out of contention.


Best NZD currencies as follows: NZD/USD and NZD/CAD. Nothing special to NZD/CHF and caution to NZD/JPY.


Massive oversold as NZD/EM exists in NZD/CNY to target 4.5026, NZD/MYR to target 2.9177 and NZD/NOK to target 6.0372. NZD/HUF and NZD/DKK si this week overbought.


Oversold GBP best trades this week as follows: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD and GBP/CHF.


GBP/EM best long trades are found in GBP/CNY to target 8.7526, GBP/CZK to target 29.6079, GBP/DKK oversold, GBP/MYR to target 5.6946, GBP/NOK to target 11.7788. Overbought to GBP/HRK and GBP/HUF.


USD/JPY and USD/CHF begin the week deeply overbought and USD/CAD oversold,, yet oversold to JPY cross pairs. CHF/JPY remains neutral. Best JPY cross pairs are EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY.


USD/CAD Vs CAD/EM


While USD/CAD begins oversold, CAD/EM across the board begins deeply overbought. In the EM space, CAD/EM trades are clearly easy and the best against free money profits.


CAD/DKK targets 5.0329, CAD/HUF targets 241.41, CAD/KRW targets 931.49, CAD/PLN targets 3.1067, CAD/RON targets 3.3411, CAD/SEK targets 6.8763 and CAD/TRY targets 6.9357.


EUR/CAD from the close at 1.4652 sits deeply oversold and just above the 15 year average at 1.4554. EUR/CAD targets 1.4799, NZD/CAD targets 0.8843 and GBP/CAD 1.7285.


USD/CAD Weekly Trade


1st Leg
Cautious long 1.2633 and 1.2621 to target 1.2716. Must cross 1.2655, 1.2678, 1.2701 and 1.2724.


OR


USD/CAD Short 1.2716 to target 1.2633.


2ng Leg


Short 1.2716 to target 1.2633.
3rd Leg


Short below 1.2609 to target 1.2526
4th Leg


Long 1.2526 to target 1.2562.


USD/CAD divergence to EUR/USD Weekly Trade but well covered

EUR/USD
1st Leg
Long Anywhere or 1.1579 to target 1.1711. Must cross 1.1592, 1.1605, 1.1618, 1.1631, 1.1644, 1.1657, 1.1670, 1.1683, 1.1696 and 1.1709.


2nd Leg
Long above 1.1778 to target 1.1857


3rd Leg
Short 1.1857 to target 1.1805


4th Leg
short 1.1711 to target 1.1672.

Brian Twomey

USD/CAD Trade Results and Next Week Targets

USD/CAD as written Sunday achieved target at exactly 1.2629. Last week, USD/CAD achieved target at exactly 1.2629 as both trades for the past 2 weeks were the exact same.


From long 1.2629, USD/CAD achieved target at 1.2661 for +32 pips. As written Wednesday to week beginning, USD/CAD contained 2 long options.


USD/CAD prices for 2 weeks ran non normal as an extra lot short was forced upon us last week. Same story this week as USD/CAD traded to 1.2773 from short `1.2713. Extra and unexpected pips were added to profits in each of 2 weeks.


Non normal prices. As all daily, weekly and long term trades are factored by pen, paper and calculator, I’m able to look back to find the vast majority of weeks, months and years, markets trade perfectly normal and trades achieves entries, targets and destinations perfectly. The assist to weekly trades are daily trades and a rare day for a daily trade to not trade correctly as daily trades are derived from central bank interest rates.


However, within a 3 month period, we seem to have at least 1 trade week when markets run non normal, sometimes 2 weeks but this is rare. Non normal markets mean USD and non USD currencies trade at extremes to each other as is the present situation. A larger picture exists to overall prices and on this erratic price week, 5 year averages are the answer.


If markets are focusing on a test or possible break to the average then weekly trades will be thrown off course. Off kilter in today’s markets mean entries off by 50 and 60 pips and rarely more. When USD and non USD currencies trade at extremes, they always correct back to normality. Its impossible mathematically not to trade back to normality.


If markets traded non normal constantly then not even the central bank professionals would trade as prices would trade to erratic to pinpoint correctly entries and targets.
This is where the extra lot becomes free and extra money added to the target. The imperative is to understand the price context by location.


So if a trade was missed this week means an extra day or 2 to holding periods as markets trade back to normal and targets always achieve destinations.


USD/JPY for example above 110.34, traded non normal to 112.00’s. Great opportunity short but impossible to trade long. Above 110.34 then means let the price run its course as the easy money trade is found in shorts. Its impossible to trade an overbought currency long or oversold currency short.


Provided EUR/USD 5 year average holds then EUR/USD trades to the vicinity of 1.1734. GBP/USD to 1.3600’sand USD/CAD back to low 1.2600;s yet again unless 1.2612 breaks lower. USD/JPY back to 110.49, NZD/USD to target low 0.7000’s.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD: 5 and 10 Year Averages

When EUR/USD broke above the 5 year average July 2020 at 1.1400’s, EUR traded to 1.2300’s by January 2021 or 6 months later.


EUR/USD is again at threat to possibly break below 5 year averages at again exactly 1.1478. Remember words and examples shown from many posts over the years: all EUR/USD tends reverse as EUR/USD is a highly neutral currency pair.

To some degree, EUR/USD is a leader currency pair to currency markets. For example, 1.2300’s reversed to its 5 year average. Lows at 1.0300’s reversed to 1.1400 at the 5 year then broke above to 1.2300’s.


The 5 year average represented middle grounds for EUR/USD since January 2017 while 1.3200’s was the big break for EUR/USD in 2014 when the ECB went negative interest rates.


Overall currency markets as USD and Non USD to include EUR/EM and USD/EM threaten breaks at 5 year averages. Most currency pairs are in do or die situations to 5 and 10 year average breaks. Current EUR/USD vs Non USD currency pairs trade at wide wide oversold and overbought extremes.


The mixed messages to EUR/EM and USD/EM over last weeks is due from USD/EM currencies broke below 5 and 10 year averages while EUR/EM trades above. Yet not all currency pairs are uniform nor in agreement


DXY at 95.00 located the 5 year average.


The strategy moving forward is all USD short and EUR/USD long until a resolution is seen from 5 and 10 year averages. Breaks below and above 5 and 10 year averages would change the strategy. Current USD is massively overbought while EUR/USD and non USD pairs are massively oversold. Either way, a massive trend is upon us.

Below is a long list of 5, 10 and 15 year averages. Listed is SGD as this pair is vitally , vitally important in the EM and G28 lineup of currencies. USD/TRY and EUR/TRY both trade above 5 and 10 year averages. EUR/TRY and EUR/SEK are the exact same currency pairs as exchange rates are the exact same. EUR/NOK is not far away at a 9.000 exchange rate.


EUR/USD 1.1478 at 5Y
GBP/USD 1.3065 5Y
USD/CAD 1.3068.


Note the GBP/USD and USD/CAD relationship at 1.3000’s. This relationship governs all Currency markets.
AUD/USD 0.7315 5Y


NZD/USD 0.6850 5Y
USD/JPY 109.41 5Y
USD/CHF 0.9536 10Y


JPY Cross Pairs
EUR/JPY 126.85 15Y
GBP/JPY 149.66 10Y


AUD/JPY 80.05 5Y
NZD/JPY 76.28 10Y
CAD/JPY 87.18 15Y V 86.45 10Y


CHF/JPY 113.37 5Y
CHF Cross Pairs
EUR/CHF 1.1074 5Y


GBP/CHF 1.2607 5Y
AUD/CHF 0.7062 5Y
NZD/CHF 0.6613 5Y


CAD Cross Pairs


EUR/CAD 1.4984 5Y Vs 1.4554 15 Y
GBP/CAD 1.7055 5Y Vs 1.7280 10Y
AUD/CAD 0.8546 5YNZD/CAD 0.8818 10Y Vs 0.8941 5Y


NZD


EUR/NZD 1.6783 5Y
GBP/NZD 1.9617 10Y Vs 1.9100 5Y


EUR/GBP 0.8788 5Y Vs 0.8413 15 Y


USD/EM


USD/CNY 6.7489 5Y
USD/CZK 22.10 10Y Vs 22.73 5Y
USD/DKK 6.5024 5Y


USD/HRK 6.5228 5Y
USD/HUF 287.69 5Y
USD/IDR 14076. 35 5Y


USD/INR 70.03 15Y
USD/MXN 19.79 5Y
USD/MYR 4.1`722 5Y


USD/NOK 8.6233 5Y
USD/PLN 3.7986 5Y
USD/RON 4.1204 5Y


USD/RUB 15.90 5Y
USD/SEK 8.9063 5Y
USD/SGD 1.3662 5Y


USD/ZAR 14.3767 5Y


EUR/EM


EUR/CNY 7.7385 5Y
EUR/CZK 26.03 5Y Vs 26.28 10Y
EUR/HRK 7.4738 5Y Vs 7.5244 10Y


EUR/HUF 329.85 5Y
EUR/INR 80.36 5Y
EUR/MXN 22.70


EUR/MYR 4.7840 5Y
EUR/NOK 9.9855 5Y
EUR/PLN 4.3528 5Y Vs 4.2890 10Y


EUR/RON 4.7231 5Y
EUR/RUB 75.71 5Y
EUR/SEK 10.2037 5Y Vs 9.6128 10Y


EUR/SGD 1.5669 5Y vs 1.5892 10Y
EUR/ZAR 16.4867. 5Y

Brian Twomey

10 Year Yield and USD/CAD Trade Results

Last March as posted, the 10 year yield trade price was 1.577 and the range was located from 1.3305 to 1.8448 or 51 points. Above 1.8448 targeted 1.9819. Below 1.3305 targeted 0.805. March achieved highs at 1.7580 and June broke below 1.3305 and traded 1.1290 lows both June and July.


Note March vital MA’s 0.805, 1.3305 and 1.8448 Vs today 1.1803, 1.2290 and 1.6146. The MA at 0.805 is today 1.1803, a 37 point rise in 6 months.


Today’s 10 year yield at 1.51 trades a 38 point range from 1.2290 to 1.6146. Below 1.2290 targets 1.1803 then bottom lows at 1.064, 0.8955, 0.8527, 0.7423. Above 1.6146 targets a 25 point range from 1.6146 to 1.8696.


Most vital to target 1.2290 is 1.4218.


The 10 year yield trades above the 5 year average at 1.9321 and explains Gold above its 5 year average at 1.1400’s at last check.


At current 1.51, the 10 year next resistance is located at 1.5625, 1.6146 then upon a break 1.6183.


Here’s the price path to 1.4218 as follows: 1.5905, 1.5784, 1.5664, 1.5423, 1.5302, 1.5182, 1.4941, 1.4820, 1.4700, 1.4579, 1.4459, 1.4338 and 1.4218.


From 1.4218 as follows: 1.3603, 1.3303, 1.3003, 1.2403, 1.2103,


Daily trades are found at roughly 2 points before the next vital level.


Current averages and vital points reported today should hold for about 3 months.


The strategy below 1.6146 is short as the price at 1.6246 not only represents a vital break to target higher prices but the price is to high within the distribution.


Yesterday 10 year yield closed at 1.536 and this close offers supports for today at 1.5218 and 1.5141 and above resistance at 1.5503 and 1.5581.


USD/CAD Weekly Trade Results


Weekly trade as posted Sunday:


1st Leg


Short 1.2700 and 1.2713 to target 1.2629. USD/CAD traded today 1.2717.


However yesterday’s short from 1.2707 traded to 1.2667 lows or 40 pips.


As suggested to the first leg: The option remains open for long USD/CAD as the 1st leg.
USD/CAD this week had 2 trade options to trade long as the target was previously known Sunday. . Lows achieved 1.2608 and 1.2594.

Once target achieves then next is 2nd, 3rd and 4th legs to the overall weekly trade.

Brian Twomey

EUR/EM Vs USD/EM: Complicated Market

For the past 4 weeks, EUR/EM Vs USD/EM aligned as oversold, neutral, neutral, overbought and for the upcoming trading week, massive overbought or massive oversold.


EUR/USD began the week deeply oversold and shorts are impossible while USD/JPY and USD/CHF comply to deeply overbought as longs are impossible. USD/CAD began the week deep oversold yet CAD’s week began trading just above a vital MA and in a horrible position.


USD/JPY overbought began last week from 110.30’s as longs became contrary to correct trading.


Currency pair trade selection to EUR/EM and USD/EM is crucial to profits as the EM market lacks uniformity as EUR/EM and USD/EM.


What separates EUR/EM Vs USD/EM exchange rates is roughly 2000 pips and EUR/EM is always the higher currency to USD/EM as shown. From reverse exchange rates, the opposite is true as EUR/EM trades below USD/EM yet the 2000 pip range holds for reverse exchange rates.


A 2000 pip separation to EUR/EM and USD/EM is miniscule in comparison to traditional EM ranges and movements. EM currencies traditionally trade 8, 9, 1000 pip weeks and more for certain currencies. The problem for EM currencies over last months is ranges completely compressed to the point EM currencies look and trade as dead range G28 currencies, hardly a difference.


Its not unusual for USD and EUR to marry and trade in currency markets as close as kissing cousins in both G28 and EM markets. Lack of interest rate distance as the underlying to exchange rates for ECB and Fed interest rates is the main problem. Neither ECB nor Fed interest rates move anymore and this prevents movements to currency prices to force range compression.


Yet range compression to EM markets may reveal an early warning to big moves ahead as USD/EM and EUR/EM cannot co exist as the present situation.


USD/RON 4.2236 Vs EUR/RON 4.9497 contains EUR/RON as a higher exchange rate and both are massive overbought. Despite a 700 pips separation, RON and MYR are the better currencies to trade EM markets as both RON and MYR exchange rates begin with a 4 handle.


USD/CNY 6.3667 Vs EUR/CNY 7.5796, USD/DKK 6.3443 Vs EUR/DKK 7.4362, USD/MXN 20.0550 Vs EUR/MXN 23.5046, USD/ZAR 14.9641 Vs EUR/ZAR 17.5364.
USD/TRY 8.8836 Vs EUR/TRY 10.4120.


USD/SEK and USD/NOK contain exchange rates to begin with an 8 handle and the same exact currency as USD/TRY for ttriple trades.


A few exceptions exist to EM markets as worthy trades this week: USD/BRL overbought to oversold EUR/BRL and compliance to EUR/USD and USD for G28. Overbought USD/CZK Vs oversold EUR/CZK, overbought USD/HRK Vs oversold EUR/HRK. Overbought USD/KRW vs oversold EUR/KRW.

Problem pairs include PLN, MXN, HUF, MYR, CNY, RON, TRY and ZAR.


Further to the 2000 pip separation and overbought to oversold readings to EUR/EM and USD/EM. Reverse exchange rates factored to interest rates reveals the same overbought and oversold readings. Its impossible to trade the ranges as factored and both USD and EUR exchange rates are problems.

Normally, by factor to reverse exchange rates, great trades exist for USD/EM and EUR/EM as ranges and vital levels are known in advance.


Take USD/CAD for example. Today’s range by reverse exchange rates factors to 1.2554 to highs at 1.2682. The calculation is the result to ranges from USD/CAD to CAD/USD.

This simple factor doesn’t work for EM currencies as it normally does week to week.
EUR/EM and USD/EM normally factors as 2 distinctly separate ranges and trade able currencies for weekly trades.

Brian Twomey

Close Price Comparisons and FX Weekly

From weekly close comparisons, 9/18 to 9/25, GBP/CHF was the big mover at 168 pips followed by CAD/JPY at 143 pips, USD/CAD 126 pips, EUR/JPY 90 pips, NZD/CHF 80 pips, GBP/AUD 67, GBP/USD 63 , AUD/JPY 47, GBP/CAD 44 and EUR/NZD 43 pips.


Losers to closing prices was EUR/AUD closed at 1.6131 in each of 2 weeks for no change followed by EUR/USD 6 pips, AUD/USD 6 pips, CAD/CHF 3 pips, GBP/JPY 38 pips, GBP/NZD 20, NZD/JPY and NZD/USD at 27 pips.


From weekly close comparisons 9/4 to 9/11, GBP/AUD was the big winner at 212 pips followed by GBP/CAD 192, USD/CAD 163, EUR/AUD 120, AUD/JPY 104, AUD/USD 101, CAD/JPY 97, GBP/NZD 85, EUR/USD 70, AUD/CHF 68.


Losers to weekly close comparisons 9/4 to 9/11: EUR/NZD 4 pips, GBP/JPY 10 pips, NZD/CHF 14, GBP/USD 22 pips, GBP/CHF 25, NZD/USD 30, NZD/JPY 31, EUR/JPY 51 pips.


From monthly close comparisons, USD/CAD and CAD/JPY were clear to big movers followed by GBP/AUD, AUD/CHF and AUD/JPY.


Losers to monthly close comparisons GBP/JPY, NZD/USD, NZD/JPY, EUR/NZD.


DXY


From 9/4 to 9/11 close difference 55 pips and 24 pips 9/18 to 9/25.


FX Weekly


USD/JPY begins the week massive overbought followed by overbought USD/CHF and oversold USD/CAD. Last week, USD/CAD and USD/CHF were overbought and USD/JPY neutral.


JPY cross pairs last week were oversold and this week best trades are located in AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY. EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY remain last in the JPY cross pair rankings.


Best currencies to trade this week: EUR/USD, AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, NZD/USD, EUR/AUD, USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, CAD/CHF.


CAD/CHF was added again to weekly trades. CAD/CHF Correlations to USD/CAD run -91% and +91% to CAD/JPY.


NZD/USD is again deeply oversold to begin the week as was the situation last week but NZD/USD and NZD cross pairs contain range and Noise problems.


GBP


Best trades: GBP/USD, GBP/CHF and GBP/CAD. GBP/JPY remains dead last as GBP/JPY sits on a vital MA and GBP/JPY lacks range however massive overbought USD/JPY will assist GBP/JPY’s drop.


Weekly Trade USD/CAD


USD/CAD runs almost the exact same trade as last week. The option remains open for long USD/CAD as the 1st leg however trades and rankings are based on easy trades and easy profits without struggle, guesses or gambling.


1st Leg


Short 1.2700 and 1.2713 to target 1.2629.
Price path to target: 1.2687, 1.2674, 1.2661, 1.2648, 1.2635 and 1.2622


2nd Leg


Short below 1.2609 to target 1.2557


3rd Leg


Long 1.2557 to target 1.2583.


4th Leg
Long 1.2629 to target 1.2661.

Brian Twomey

USD/CAD Targets and FX Markets Next Week

USD/CAD target as written Sunday at 1.2629 completed at 1.2632 from 1.2769 and Short Anywhere then 1.2894. As written to the 4th leg of the trade, long 1.2629 to target 1.2661 also completed.


Hold the trade from 1.2894 or thereabouts to 1.2632 target achieved +262 pips. From 1.2894 to 1.2769 then +125 pips. From 1.2769 to 1.2632 then +137 pips.
4th Leg.


Long 1.2629 to target 1.2661 then +32 pips.


USD/CAD’s spike on Monday provided a rare yet huge bonus opportunity for many extra pips profit not originally intended, especially as the jump occurred on Monday. From Monday to Thursday’s target completion, trades operated on pure profit all week.


To exclude Monday’s spike and knowing the target on Sunday, the normal weekly trade would’ve traded from 1.2769 to 1.2629 in 4 days. In 4 days, the Fed, BOJ and BOE met, plus many news announcements and whatever market events.


Under normal circumstances to weekly trades, USD/CAD for example, had 4 days not to watch markets nor care to any market events as targets are written in mathematical stone. Day trades are quite different.


GBP Day Trades


GBP/USD yesterday achieved 1.3707, GBP/CHF 1.2687 and GBP/JPY 150.59.


Next Week


USD/JPY and JPY Cross pairs


USD/JPY begins next week severely overbought from Sunday’s reported neutral position. USD/CHF begins massive overbought while USD/CAD at neutral will hold the USD trifecta position in neutral position and remain the oddball currency among the 3 most vital USD currencies.


JPY cross pairs began this week severely oversold, all traded higher. EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, CHF/JPY and AUD/JPY trade in crucial do or die situations as all may trade easily higher or lower. Fairly neutral as all currently stand.


NZD/JPY as odd ball trades at severe overbought. Recall last week. NZD/JPY was last on the JPY cross pair rankings and no hurry for a trade.


CAD/JPY sits oversold yet at its crucial break point while USD/CAD trades neutral.


EUR/USD


EUR/USD remains oversold and targets upper 1.1700’s and lower 1.1800’s easily while EUR/CHF sits at vital high/low point. EUR/CAD trades in its usual monthly position between 1.4911, 1.4984 and 1.4553. Nothing special to EUR/AUD except its usual short highs.


EUR/NZD currently sits oversold and a pair to watch for next week while EUR/GBP contains as usual no excitement and no hurry to trade.


NZD and AUD


Lowest exchange rate NZD/USD, NZD/CAD and NZD/CHF also sits at vital inflection points. Same story for AUD except AUD/CAD at oversold and may decide the determining factor to drive AUD pairs next week.


GBP


GBP currencies so far appears as next week’s winning trades as oversold GBP/USD could easily assist GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY higher. Oversold GBP/NZD as well assists to GBP longs while GBP/AUD matches EUR/AUD short high strategies.


From current prices, currency markets next week appears extraordinary neutral with focus on vital break points unless today brings moves to determine better trades. GBP/USD lower would solidify GBP currencies as the main trades next week and EUR/USD long drops as usual routine for the past few months.. USD/JPY sits on the radar due to current overbought but normally traded as a day trade.

Brian Twomey

GBP/CHF, USD/CAD, GBP/USD

Currency markets to USD Vs Non USD are defined by USD/CAD and GBP/USD as 2 most and visible opposites much the same as EUR/USD to CAD/ZAR. The driver to GBP this week was GBP/CHF and USD/CAD;s moves were driven by the GBP/CHF and USD/CAD’s relationship.


Deeply oversold GBP/CHF opened the week at 1.2791 and massive overbought USD/CAD at 1.2769 or 22 pips. USD/CAD and Correlations run +10 and not much assistance. Written Sunday was caution to CHF cross pairs.


USD/CAD eventually crossed above GBP/CHF and traveled to 1.2894 as GBP/CHF dropped to 1.2656 or 238 pips. At yesterday’ s Fed, USD/CAD flew to 1.2796 and GBP/CHF to 1.2559 or 237 pips.


USD/CAD and GBP/CHF today hold a spread of 121 pips but now trades 51 pips. USD/CAD target as written Sunday is 1.2629 and USD/CAD achieved lows at 1.2674 and 45 pips to target with 2 trade days remaining.


Hold the 2nd lot from 1.2894 to 1.2674 runs +220 pips and +95 pips from 1.2769 or actual Short Anywhere as entry doesn’t matter. Hold the 2nd lot to 1.2769 and exit then +125 pips and +95 pips from 1.2769 totals 220 pips.


USD/CAD achieves target either by GBP/CHF higher and crosses USD/CAD or deeply oversold GBP/CHF drops lower to day trade bottom today at 1.2559 and 1.2578. Either way GBP/CHF trades, USD/CAD target remains 1.2629.


The only other manner to track USD/CAD and to ensure target achievement is through GBP/CAD, the Carney Cross. GBP/CAD’s vital point today for lower is 1.7399 and it broke lower to 1.7284.


USD/CAD all week was in a no lose trade situation and added to weekly profits was day trade gains. Monday’s spike was beyond a god send as the spike achieved on Monday allowed shorts to trade all week.


To travel to even more technical depths to lose the crowd to USD/CAD’s target, Canada’s Repo rate or Corra is about to cross most vital Overnight Money Market Finance Rate. This means USD/CAD in days head could travel far lower than the 1.2629 target.


The least to USD/CAD target achievement concerns was and remains 99% to everything written and trades recommended as the whole trading world is so so wrong to a host of aspects and probably begins with charts. Light years of changes occurred since 2016.


GBP/CHF trades again massive oversold and long is the only strategy to target 1.2687 on a break of 1.2660.


GBP/USD as well trades massive oversold and matches GBP/JPY. GBP/USD to today’s highs is located at 1.3698 and 1.3707 then short while GBP/JPY targets easily 150.59 and 150.49 on a break of 150.21.


For BOE, long is the only way forward for GBP. Doesn’t matter what the BOE may say, long is the only trade.

Brian Twomey