EUR/USD V USD/JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Last week’s currency markets reported the 2nd week to Statistical nightmares, Statistical anomalies where Majors in USD V Non USD are at Statistical Wars with respect to their own prices as well as war against other currency pairs.
Traditionally, if one currency pair is affected by uncertain statistical direction then all currency pair prices are affected as nations purposefully hold currency prices extremely close to its counterpart nations, especially in today’s central bank newly created currency price.

Statistical assessment over the past 2 weeks revealed itself as technical analysis displays this week Doli candles in GBP/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD.

Recall last week’s revelations to not only above cross pairs on the problem list but best price movements would derive from cross pairs. Why is answered by settlement in EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, USD/JPY and NZD/USD but unsettled prices to GBP/USD and AUD/USD. The further note is JPY cross pairs remain in good stead to problems except EUR/JPY.

While EUR/USD is desperately trying to rise, range tops in EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and problem pair EUR/CHF prevent EUR/USD further to break its vital point at 1.1819.

While GBP/USD price is far to low and must rise, problems derive from GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD.

As AUD/USD also desperately seeks to rise to break 0.7520, problems developed in AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD while AUD/CHF leaves the problem pair list.

Overall, currency prices contain range and alignment dilemmas and the origin is located from exorbitantly high interest rates in all nations.

The RBA and Lowe confirms wholesale interest rates are far to high. Such a development derives from the Fed as all central banks price national interest rates from the Fed and it begins with the RBNZ then feeds to all central banks. To high by my assessment and common to all central banks is about 40ish basis points and quite staggering by today’s standards.

EUR/USD targets this week 1.1798 on breaks of 1.1700, 1.1715 and 1.1729. Vital break at 1.1819 targets higher levels at 1.1916, 1.1972 and eventual 1.2088. Below targets 1.1545, 1.1410 and 1.1401 on breaks of 1.1680 and 1.1631. EUR/USD strategy remains longer term in long only mode as averages are rising alongside higher prices.

USD/JPY current massive overbought and multi year range top at 112.82 targets lower to 111.11, 109.64 and 109.42. Target at 109.00’s achieves destinations only on a break of 110.27. The 110.00’s and 109.00’s however formed many and massive supports from 110.73, 110.54, 110.40 and 110.32.

USD/JPY gained roughly 200 pips per month since the 104.63 bottoms in March and now the 112.82 range top is upon JPY. Short only is the strategy over the longer term as USD/JPY contains every ability to travel lower to 108.00’s and 107.00’s.

GBP/USD ranged last week 252 pips from 1.3360 to 1.3108 lows and its vital break point for higher to 1.3500’s, 1.3600’s and 1.3800’s is located at 1.3412. GBP/USD targets this week 1.3313 and a must break point in order to challenge 1.3412. Any price below 1.3220 is open to longs on a long only strategy as GBP targets far higher prices over time.

AUD/USD break point is located at 0.7520 and targets upon a break higher 0.7566, 0.7634 and 0.7773 longer term. AUD/USD’s previous multi week target at 0.7500’s was prevented by a corrective rise in EUR/AUD to 1.5900’s from the 1.5200 lows in June. Current EUR/AUD target at 1.5500’s and lower places AUD/USD to its current 0.7520 break point.

USD/CAD again remains most favored because its a pure and market oriented currency pair. Neither the BOC nor Fed holds USD/CAD from its wide movements.

A break at 1.3106 and 1.3039 allows CAD a run to its vital point for lower at 1.3014 to target 1.2972, 1.2956, 1.2905 and 1.2858. USD/CAD trades at multi year range tops and the commitment to a lower CAD on a short only strategy not only remains but holds for many weeks to come.

Problem pair break points .

EUR/CHF is not only overbought but watch the break point at 1.1652.

GBP/CAD Do or Die is located at 1.7450.

GBP/NZD current overbought and break point is located at 1.9359.

GBP/AUD Do or Die at 1.7835 from the close at 1.7829.

AUD/CAD Watch 0.9784 from the close at 0.9765.

AUD/NZD severely overbought from its 1.0970 close requires a break at 1.0855 for much lower prices.

CAD/CHF from 0.7611 closed exactly on its 100 day average and its break point is located at 0.7578 to target lower prices.

 

Brian Twomey

 

My trusted friend, http://tantalumwatches.com  exquisite top brand name Watches, #watches, Pocket Watches, Rings, Luxurious, please have a look, Brian Twomey

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EUR/CAD V GBP/AUD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

On April 11 when last EUR/CAD was visited, the trade strategy was sell 1.5900 to target 1.5500’s then 1.5300’s. The warning was 1.4900’s would trade on a break of 1.5300’s. Severely overbought EUR/CAD from April 11 traded to 1.4900’s at the end of May.
From the May lows at 1.4900’s, EUR/CAD traded to 1.5500’s and now sits deeply overbought at lower 1.5400’s. EUR/CAD is heading right back to 1.4942 and 1.4905.

On the way, EUR/CAD must break 1.5374, 1.5314, 1.5080 and 1.5068 then home free to 1.4900’s.

The multi week strategy as was the trade status for EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD is sell any and all rallies and trade down to 1.4900’s. Any priice above 1.5433 becomes an added bonus. If Poloz at the BOC offers Wednesday a skyrocket EUR/CAD then a further benefit is again added.

GBP/AUD as was last addressed April 8 and traded at 1.8300’s stood just below resistance at 1.8696. The target then was 1.8200’s and 1.7900’s on a further break of 1.8127. GBP/AUD traded to 1.7399 by end June.

Current GBP/AUD at 1.7700’s remains a sell rally strategy as long as price remains below 1.8658 and 1.8665. At 1.7700’s, bottoms are located at 1.7442 and 1.7394.

Higher to target 1.8168 and 1.8270 must break 1.7757, 1.7826, 1.7856, 1.7919 and 1.8030. Most vital for higher as a shorter term strategy is located at 1.7826 to target 1.7900’s.

Overall, the more comfortable strategy is long from 1.7400’s and 1.7300’s to target 1.7700’s and 1.7826. GBP/AUD from last post remains on the problem currency pair list but the problem is uncertain direction as much resistance lies above and the Stats are clearly fighting upside V downside moves.

The clear strategy is found in short EUR/AUD as opposed to GBP/AUD.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY, AUD, GBP, CAD: levels, Ranges, Targets

Currency Markets this week retain 2nd week of Statistical nightmares, Statistical anomalies where Majors in USD V Non USD are at Statistical Wars with respect to their own prices as well as war against other currency pairs. USD/CAD 1.3400 and USD/JPY 110.90’s great examples. War means pertinent Statistics lack uniformity to higher / lower but the condition is temporary and offers trade opportunities and insights to types of markets that will trade as the market rightsizes prices. The key is understanding.

Current Stat war is causing much grief to cross pairs as evident by high / low price noise. Cross pair prices settled March / April and allowed USD V Non to perform their movement tasks. Problem pair range noise means its time again for cross pairs to move once more as USD V Non become settled. Afterall, its been 3 months. Currency pair trade selection again is most vital as problem range pairs developed within the mix over the past 2 weeks.

The derivation to Statistical lack of consistency is caused by the Fed’s raise 3 weeks ago as prices then were knocked off intended price paths only to begin again. EUR/USD 3 weeks ago at 1.1720 contained an 1.1812 target but was knocked lower to 1.1500’s by the Fed’s raise. USD/CAD traded to 1.3400’s on a 1.2900’s target. GBP/USD traded 1.3000’s on a 1.3300 target.
If ever an opportunity existed to demonstrate Statistical Price Paths, its found in the past 3 weeks as target prices must fill intended obligations to then settle. From 1.1500’s, EUR/USD so far traded 1.1767, GBP/USD achieved 1.3290 and USD/CAD traded to 1.3076 lows. A Statistical Price Path offered and consummately offers greater opportunities.

Here’s the pairs to watch / trade for best moves, EUR/CHF, GBP/CHF, AUD/CHF and the commonality is CHF.

EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD and AUD/CAD against commonality to CAD. EUR/CAD is significantly out of sync. Watch Poloz this week closely.

GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD. Overall AUD/NZD is a horrible currency pair while recall in March the advice to not trade GBP/NZD as it was caught in a 1.9200 to 1.9500 range without clear trade signals to the 150 pip trade criteria.

EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD.

EUR/GBP remains and seems will retain status as problem for time immemorial and is a pair to not trade.

EUR/USD break point for higher /lower is located at 1.1807 to then target higher at 1.1862, 1.1925, 1.1932, 1.1977 and eventual 1.2087.

EUR/USD below main breaks are well supported at 1.1702, 1.1677, 1.1635 and 1.1545. Long only remains EUR/USD strategy.

USD/JPY’s higher /lower break point is located at 109.92 and lower is the objective to 109.22. USD/JPY must first break 110.47, 110.23 and 110.05. USD/JPY traded an 85 pip range from 111.13 to 110.28 and advice last week to refrain from trade in USD/JPY was correct. USD/JPY will continue to under perform.

USD/CAD break point is located at 1.3019 and lower targets 1.2970, 1.2951, 1.2903 and 1.2844. Short only remains the overall strategy.

AUD/USD break Point for higher/ lower is located at 0.7517 to target 0.7577 and 0.7633. Long only strategy remains especially at 0.7389 and any price below to target the break at 0.7517.

GBP/USD break point for higher / lower is located at 1.3407 to target higher at 1.3522 and 1.3623. Lower is supported at 1.3242 and 1.3196. Again, long only strategy is the way as GBP heads much higher from currency levels.

 

Brian Twomey

 

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EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Recall the short EUR/AUD trade in March from 1.6100’s to 1.5500’s inside a 2 month time frame. EUR/AUD actually ended in June at 1.5200’s and the rise to current 1.5800’s is the result from the 1.5200 lows.

At current 1.5800’s, EUR/AUD targets again 1.5500’s but this time the target is located at 1.5549. Longest term, EUR/AUD contains every ability to travel back to 1.5300’s. Along the way to 1.5500’s, break points are located at 1.5778, 1.5722, 1.5703, 1.5628 and 1.5611.

The strategy over the next months is sell any and all price rises until 1.5500’s achieve its destination. Any price rises is a bonus and only adds to shorts. The only manner to handle EUR/AUD is a short only strategy as longs are literally impossible. The March mistake was allow EUR/AUD to trade on its own to the 1.5500 target for roughly 300 pips per month. A sell only daily / weekly strategy pays far more until the 1.5500 target achieves.

A EUR/AUD short then explains how AUD/USD achieves its 0.7500 targets short term and 0.7800’s over the longer term. A EUR/AUD rise severely contains AUD/USD and prevents an AUD move higher.

EUR/NZD contains serious range problems because its moving averages are all in bad shape and lacks decent uniformity. Yet all vital averages are far overbought.

The vital break points are located at 1.7174, 1.7142, 1.7089 and 1.7016 then the longer range target is located at 1.6848 and 1.6737. The first short target is located at 1.7142 from current low 1.7200’s.

Above break points are located at 1.7412 and 1.7407. The EUR/NZD strategy is the replica of EUR/AUD to sell any and all rallies over the longer term to target 1.7016 then 1.6800’s.

Other pairs contian range problems similar to EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD and those pairs include USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD and AUD/CAD. In days ahead, I will take a view and post the problem pairs.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

EUR/USD ranged 191 pips last week from previously mentioned 1.1720 to 1.1529 against the target price at 1.1806. EUR/USD closed Friday at 1.1681 and 1.1655 last week, a 26 pip difference.

GBP/USD ranged 240 pips last week from 1.3291 to 1.3051 against the target price at 1.3367 and 1.3387. GBP/USD closed Friday at 1.3203 and 1.3258 last week for a 55 pip difference.

USD/JPY ranged 155 pips last week from 109.37 to 110.92 against the target price at 109.15 and 108.99. USD/JPY closed Friday at 110.66 and 109.97 last week for a 69 pip difference.

USD/CAD ranged 250 pips last week from 1.3383 to 1.3133 against the target price at 1.2980. USD/CAD closed Friday at 1.3133 and 1.3260 last week for a 127 pip difference.

AUD/USD ranged 117 pips last week from 0.7324 to 0.7441 against the target price at 0.7550’s. AUD/USD closed Friday at 0.7402 and 0.7440 last week for a 38 pip difference.

USD/CHF included this week closed Friday at 0.9906.

Target Price explanation. Previous years target prices not only hit exactly by math standards but targets reached destinations by price alignments. The system served well its purpose but it lacked deeper price information. The current system’s refinement to price targets is far superior because it reveals much more to price information, price relationships, next targets, settled prices, price speed, price changes, continuation, ranges, short V Medium V Long term targets and the list is literally endless. Most importantly, the current target structure captures perfectly the contemporary rules under the new market composition instituted by central banks 2 years ago. Any questions, see March / April 35 trades and 4000 ish pips.

EUR/USD target this week is located at 1.1802 on a break of 1.1702 and 1.1712 against the break point at 1.1811. Tough area here as a long rejection candle is easily achievable. A break of 1.1811 then targets next 1.1936, 1.1992 and 1.2086. Below long points to a long only strategy are located at 1.1630, 1.1638 and 1.1545.

USD/JPY break point at current 109.74 hardly changed in 3 weeks. Last week’s target at 109.15 and 108.77 achieved 109.37 then bounced to 110.94 and 30 pips above 110.68 sell point.

Overbought USD/JPY from previous 3 month contention to EUR/USD and USD is now in a battle of Statistics against itself. Higher to 112 relieves price pressures but higher means more overbought. Lower price pressures relieves at 104.
Lower targets 109.96 and break of 109.74 targets 109.54, 109.24 and 109.09. Higher targets 111.95. Good strategy is leave USD/JPY to trade another day as the longer term short is slowly building and this meets agreement to EUR/USD much higher. Overall, USD/JPY averages are falling against a rising price as the longer term range is located from high 112.00’s to 99.00’s, a 1300 pip range. Previous 113.00’s are now gone. USD/JPY’s resolution won’t solve itself well.

GBP/USD. Higher for GBP must break 1.3428 to target 1.3555, 1.3565 and 1.3638 then on to 1.3800’s. Target this week on a long only strategy is located at 1.3367 and 1.3383. Below long points begin at 1.3285, 1.3251 and 1.3214. GBP/USD 1.4100’s many times previously mentioned as longest term target was confirmed last week by Goldman Sach’s call for GBP/USD 1.4100. What’s 1.4100 in a 3100 pip range from 1.3200’s to the Brexit fall at 1.6300’s.

AUD/USD now achieved deeply oversold yet again but this week reveals oversold across the board. Break point is located at 0.7533 to target 0.7600’s and 0.7700’s. Longer term target remains now 0.7783 and down 47 pips since March 0.7830. Target this week remains at 0.7550’s.

USD/CAD’s price in the last 3 weeks rose to 1.3400’s against stasis averages and as USD/JPY, USD/CAD enters its own statistical abnormalities. CAD is far overbought and must trade lower. The target over 3 weeks remains now 1.2943, 1.2911 and 1.2900, 1.2823 on a break of 1.3027 and 1.3014. The overall CAD trade resembles the March/ April AUD/NZD example. We held to target AUD/NZD against a profit but AUD/NZD dropped to the same degree as the profit. Never a loss however but terrible entry.

USD/CAD remains a short only strategy especially above 1.3010. Here’s 2 prices, 1.3133 and 1.3203. Guess the pairs.

USD/CHF break point for lower at 0.9847 targets a mass of many and sustaining supports at 0.9700’s. Current supports at 0.9700’s was reported in March / April and hasn’t changed in 3 months. Higher to target 1.0130 is located at 1.0064. Look for shorts above 0.9939. From a daily perspective, USD/CHF sits at dead neutral and is the smarter position in relation to USD/CAD and USD/JPY.

Overall currency markets are within roughly 100 pips to break points/targets and the problem pairs as price drivers derives from USD.

 

Brian Twomey

 

My trusted friend, exquisite top brand name Watches, , Pocket Watches, Rings, Luxurious, please have a look, Brian Twomey

 

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

From Last week’s written line – up: EUR/USD traded 167 pips from 1.1507 to 1.1674, GBP/USD 210 pips from 1.3105 to 1.3315, USD/JPY 120 pips from 110.75 to 109.55, AUD/USD 94 pips from 0.7348 to 0.7442, USD/CAD 222 pips from 1.3159 to 1.3381 and GBP/CAD 349 pips from 1.7423 to 1.7772.

EUR/USD vs common currency market themes at 50 to 150 pips traded last week 167 pips and 262 in the prior week, USD/CAD traded 222 last week vs 252 pips 2 weeks ago, AUD/USD traded last week 94 pips Vs 183 pips 2 weeks ago. GBP traded 210 pips last week VS 234 pips 2 weeks ago.

EUR/USD again remains a long only strategy as the weekly target is now 1.1806. Higher to target 1.1940 and 1.1942 must break 1.1824. To 1.1806 target must break 1.1645, 1.1660, 1.1671, 1.1683 then to 1.1710, 1.1747, 1.1763 and 1.1784. Watch for longs below 1.1635.

USD/JPY target this week is located at 109.15 and 108.99 on a break of 109.74. Watch the cluster of supports at 109.64, 109.62 and 109.60 to clear then on to 108.99. Above sell points 110.02, 110.21, 110.32 and 110.68.

GBP/USD. As the Fed now holds interest rates at 2.00 and BOE at 0.50, the BOE by osmosis will be forced to raise and a raise means GBP far higher. Last week’s mention to GBP’s off kilter relationship to its pertinent averages was the explanation to the violent upswing to the 6 -3 BOE decision.

Higher for GBP must break 1.3464 to target 1.3593 and 1.3652 then on to 1.3800’s. Target this week on a long only strategy is located at 1.3367 and 1.3383. Below long points begin at 1.3270, 1.3262 and 1.3253.

AUD/USD break point for higher is located at 0.7565 to target 0.7600’s and 0.7700’s. A break at 0.7532 is required to then lead the way to a break at 0.7565. Target remains the same as last week, 0.7550’s and longs below 0.7450’s. AUD maintains the same relationship to its averages as does GBP. The averages remain severely off kilter. Both AUD and GBP remain deeply oversold.

USD/CAD’s deeply overbought condition maintains its break point for lower at 1.2980. Lower for CAD must break 1.3166, 1.3024 and 1.3006 to target and break 1.2980 then on to 1.2800’s and 1.2700’s. CAD remains a short only strategy against a massive potential for a deeply lower price. CAD like its AUD and GBP counterparts holds an off kilter relationship to its averages.

Notice GBP, AUD and CAD and the off kilter relationships to its averages. NZD can assume it contains the same off relationship to its averages and the reason is derived from AUD, NZD and CAD are past members of the great British Empire. When each left the British Empire, all adopted the same UK money market system against slight twists to distinguish each nation as its own separate entity. In all, not much changed over the centuries. AUD, GBP and NZD averages are equally oversold while CAD maintains equal overbought.

My trusted friend, http://tantalumwatches.com Exquisite top brand name Watches, #watches, Pocket Watches, Rings, Luxurious, Please have a look, Brian Twomey

 

Brian Twomey

 

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Currency market common themes at 50 and 150 pip ranges experienced slight violations particularly in EUR pairs. Ranges were reported last week against the caveat to many currency pair prices approached and/ or traded at significant high/ low break points therefore subject to long rejection candles. EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and GBP/USD approached 1.1895, 1.3544 and 130.00’s then dropped while USD/CAD and USD/JPY rose from break points at 1.2950 and 109.29.

Among the 10 currency pairs posted last week EUR/USD, EUR/AUD and EUR/JPY were clear winners as each dropped 262 pips, 263 and 264 to violate the upper 150 range by roughy 100 pips. EUR/USD dropped from 1.1809 to 1.1547, EUR/AUD 1.5694 to 1.5431 and EUR/JPY 130.33 to 127.69.

USD/CAD was next to violate at 252 pips as CAD jumped from 1.2950 to 1.3202 followed by GBP/USD’s 237 pip drop from 1.3449 to 1.3212. GBP/JPY and USD/JPY each roamed 164 and 161 pips from 147.90 to 146.32 and 109.28 to 110.89.

AUD/USD and AUD/JPY each ranged 183 and 188 pips from 0.7622 to 0.7439 and 84.15 to 82.27. AUD/JPY since March and reported many times previously, held 84.00 to 82.00’s against slight violations at 81.00 and 85.00’s but always managed to retain its 82.00 to 84.00 space.

CAD/JPY held 149 pips from 85.20 to 83.71. Reported last week in CAD/JPY was the continued struggle to USD/CAD as this relationship contains serious problems. Note the perfection in EUR/USD V EUR/JPY and AUD/USD to AUD/JPY.

USD/CAD must travel miles lower and CAD/JPY higher in order for this relationship to rectify. The same problem relationship is seen in GBP/USD to GBP/JPY but GBP/JPY is clearly explained by an uncertain and clueless USD/JPY since its March rise from 105.00’s.

Into week 2 is again seen a USD correction lower and non USD as in EUR/USD and GBP higher. The clear winners higher this week are seen easily in EUR and GBP and USD/CAD lower while USD/JPY will remain the slow / dead mover.

EUR/USD higher to again target 1.1812 must break 1.1660, 1.1669 then 1.1718 and 1.1724. Caution is warranted at 1.1724 as much daylight exists from 1.1724 to 1.1803 then the 1.1812 target. Above 1.1724, EUR/USD could easily see a 1.1724 to 1.1784 range. EUR/USD break point to target 1.1946, 1.1952 and longer term 1.2038 and 1.2085 is located at 1.1881.

EUR/USD below break is located at 1.1383 and is under no threat this week to travel lower. EUR this week retains a long only strategy.

GBP/USD deeply oversold like its EUR/USD counterpart, targets easily this week 1.3349 then 1.3449 ahead of its vital break point at 1.3518 to target 1.3600’s and 1.3800’s. GBP drops fails to maintain its relationship with current averages therefore GBP’s overall ability to skyrocket and travel significantly higher over time remains a great potential. GBP’s best comfort zone is located from 1.3518 to 1.3800’s and this area coincides to EUR/USD 1.1800 to 1.2000’s.

AUD/USD break point is located at 0.7623 to travel higher to 0.7700’s. This week’s targets are located at 0.7555, 0.7573 and 0.7589. At 0.7589 must break to target 0.7623 and 0.7700’s. AUD as well is deeply oversold short and long term as AUD contains every ability to target 0.7800’s over time.

GBP/CAD is well supported at 1.7438 and 1.7429 and target this week is located at 1.7699 upon breaks at 1.7568 and 1.7597.

USD/CADis not only overbought but a clear favorite for shorts to target longer term again 1.2776 on breaks at 1.2894, 1.2883 and 1.2865. First break points below are located at 1.3010, 1.3001, 1.2981 and 1.2930. For the week acceptable targets are located at 1.2981 and 1.2930. Recall USD/CAD last week bounced from current lower 1.2900 supports.

USD/JPY Lower targets 109.01 and 108.88 on breaks at 109.76, 109.64. First breaks lower are located at 110.50, 110.27, 110.19 then on to 109.64 and lower. Above 110.50 targets 111.87 and 111.96 and far more closer to USD/JPY historic range tops at 113.00’s. As stated previously, USD/JPY contains great potential to travel significantly lower to 107.00’s on a break of 109.64 and 108.88.

 

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Brian Twomey

 

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and JPY Crosses: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The currency market common theme this week is again focused on major break points inside the same 50 to 150 ranges for a vast majority of currency pairs. The prime example is EUR/USD break point at 1.1895 Vs USD/JPY at 109.41. The respective failure at break points held USD/JPY inside a 100 pip range last week from 109.20 to 110.25 and 181 pips for EUR/USD from 1.1657 to 1.1838.

Last week’s reported dark area in USD/JPY from 109.45 to 110.01 held for the most part and this week the same area exists from 109.45 to 110.04. Rarely seen Dark areas represent untouchable zones until a price break is seen.

The second theme as USD/CAD, USD/JPY correction lower, EUR/USD and non USD pairs higher remains this week’s price path. This week will clearly decide as the internals inside current prices contains easily ability for EUR/USD to break 1.1895 and seen inside USD/JPY is a good prospect to literally drop like a rock. What contains a massive USD/JPY fall however is seen in EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY higher against a range bound scenario in CAD/JPY and AUD/JPY. Clearly a volatile week is here and USD/JPY as the prime driver.

USD/JPY from the 109.55 close ranges from 109.42 to 109.69. Below most vital 109.42 targets remain from last week at 108.77 and 108.73 then possibly next week to further target 107.87. Above 109.69, sell points to target 109.42 and below to 108.77 is located at 110.04, 110.07, 110.22 and 110.44. Overall, any price above 109.45 becomes open for shorts and sell rally is the proper strategy as longs are impossible considerations.

EUR/USD must break 1.1873 and 1.1895 to target 1.1920 and 1.1954 then eventual 1.2058 and 1.2084. EUR/USD would then easily range from 1.2058 and 1.2054 to 1.2304 and 1.2357 as 1.2300’s represents breaks point to see a 1.2500 and 1.2700 EUR.
Below inside a EUR/USD weekly buy drop strategy, long points are located at 1.1730, 1.1722 and a solid line at 1.1679.
GP/JPY main break point to target 150.14 is located at 148.17. To achieve 150.14, GBP/JPY must clear 148.33, 148.55 and 148.93. The clear higher or lower point is located at 147.23.

Below inside a weekly buy drop strategy, long points are located at 146.68 and 146.65 then 145.47 and 145.42. Lower 145.00’s are not expected however as GBP/JPY will trade extremely bullish all week.

EUR/JPY as stated last week, break point now 130.13 leads to the top and many many points at 131.00’s. Target at 129.57 achieves by breaks at 129.15. Main break point all week to decide higher/ lower is located at 128.52. Below 128.01 and 127.61 provides excellent long point for an all week buy drop strategy. Not a terrific choice in EUR/JPY as GBP/JPY provides a clearer price path and wider ranges.

EUR/AUD break point above 1.5567 targets 1.5675 and 1.5697. Any price above 1.5536, all week provides excellent sell points as the overall top in EUR/AUD is located at 1.5700’s. Longs are again impossible and short only strategy is the only way. Note the word “ANY”. Look for shorts to 1.5417.

AUD/JPY break point is located at 83.60 from the 83.25 close. A break at 83.60 targets 84.46. Long drops is located at 82.80 and 82.06. To target a break at 83.60 then AUD/JPY must clear 83.16. Not a terrific currency choice in AUD/JPY as range conditions persist from 82.00’s to 84.00’s since March. AUD/JPY qualifies as well as EUR/GBP, CAD/CHF in the lower end 50 ish pip ranges as not much is seen to movements to AUD/JPY.

AUD/USD break point now 0.7641 and a rising line by 17 pips higher from last week’s 0.7624. Long points and only strategy is located at 0.7580, 0.7577 and 0.7554. AUD in on a long only strategy. Break at 0.7641 contains best shot provided 0.7619 breaks higher. Overall target is 0.7677, 0.7703 and 0.7805 in weeks ahead.

GBP/USD break point at 1.3544 targets 1.3611 and 1.3689. In weeks ahead on a 1.3544 break targets 1.3700’s, 1.3800’s and 1.4100’s. GBP for the week is heading higher and buy drops at 1.3378, 1.3327 and 1.3277 yet doubtful to be seen. Long only is the only way forward.

USD/CAD. Same deal as last week, short only strategy and short “Any” price above 1.2998. CAD break point at 1.2848 targets 1.2760 and 1.2715 on a break below and 1.2576 in weeks ahead.

CAD/JPY. Same pair, same Stats, and same tired range conditions as AUD/JPY. Reason for similarities is Australia and Canada share many of the same structures inside respective money markets systems.

Break point is located at 85.17 to target 85.63, 85.89, 85.98 and 86.03. CAD/JPY will struggle all week as USD/CAD decides its fate below 1.2848. Buy drops is located at 84.51, 84.30 and 84.11. As USD/CAD breaks 1.2848 then far higher to target 86.27 and higher will go CAD/JPY.

Again, note roughly 150 pip range and also note levels, ranges and targets are always exact week after week and year after year. Failure for major break point to break higher/lower will result in long rejection candles. Caution at vital break points.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The common theme to currency market prices reported last week at 75 to 200 pip ranges held as EUR/USD for one example was knocked off its upward trajectory by Monday’s Italian elections and dived 138 pips to 1.1510 only to regain its correct weekly path to rise 214 pips to 1.1724.

The second theme as USD pairs lower to correct while non USD pairs higher also held last week and explains why EUR as one example rose 214 pips from its Italian lows. It explains USD/CAD’s 200 ish pip drop to 1.2800’s on Thursday’s BOC day and USD/JPY’s 171 pip dive from 109.80 to 108.11.

Currency markets this week will trade 50 and 150 ranges as the USD correction lower and non USD higher theme holds into its second week. Why the drop to 50 and 150 pip ranges is due because most vital break points to significant averages becomes the focus for a vast majority of currency pairs. Currency prices either break or long rejection candles are seen. Clearly, an interesting week is ahead.

The favorite pair again this week is clearly USD/CAD as overbought CAD desperately wishes to travel higher but CAD averages are moving against higher prices. EUR/USD and AUD/USD will trade strongly as both pairs move higher followed by GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. USD/JPY and EUR/JPY trade again as usual in their same old tired ways while EUR/AUD as inclusion this week is seen as nothing special. Encouraging to the EUR/USD Vs USD/JPY relationship is early beginnings to the first price divergence seen since Feb 23rd.

EUR/USD. To understand EUR/USD is to view its overall price trajectories in 300 pip ranges as EUR/USD begins from upper 1.1200’s and 1.1300’s to 1.1600’s then 1.1600’s to 1.1900. Above 1.1900 goes to 1.2200 and 1.2300 then 1.2300 to 1.2500 and 1.2700. Long and short term Hedges now established.

EUR/USD last week targets were located at 1.1788 and 1.1824 and EUR/USD traded to 1.1727. This week targets are located at 1.1704 and 1.1817. EUR/USD most vital break point for significantly higher is located 1.1896. A break higher then targets 1.2080’s and lower 1.2100’s. Vital supports and good long points are located at 1.1634, 1.1670 and 1.1687. EUR/USD to the extreme is located at 1.1572. Long only strategy applies to EUR/USD for the week.

USD/JPY break point is located at 109.30 and targets 108.57 on a further break below 109.46. USD/JPY’s problem this week is a dark area developed from 109.46 to 110.01 and in between is 109.73. Above 110.01 exists 110.27 and 110.42. Overall, USD/JPY is a short only strategy to target 108.57. At 109.30 and 109.73 establishes entry. Longer term, a deeper USD correction could see USD/JPY easily trade to 107.76 and 107.25.

USD/CAD break point to target 1.2740 and longer term 1.2571 is located at overbought 1.2832. The problem at 1.2832 is its well protected by 1.2876, 1.2854, 1.2845 then 1.2803. An off sync economic announcement maybe required to push CAD lower to break 1.2832. Lower to challenge 1.2832 is located at 1.2922, 1.2909 then CAD is clear to 1.2800’s. Above, last week’s 1.3003 is now located at 1.2996. As was the strategy since March, short only is the only way forward.

GBP/USD. Last week’s target at 1.3437 traded to 1.3362 and like EUR/USD fell a few pips shy as Monday’s Italian election debacle knocked GBP a few pips off course. This week’s taget is a few pips higher than last week at 1.3462. GBP’s break point for higher to target 1.3700 and 1.3800’s is located at 1.3558. Only points below and good long entries if seen are located at 1.3277 and 1.3232. GBP averages are rising and this is a good indication for a much higher GBP over coming weeks.

GBP/JPY main break point is located at 148.16 and a break above targets 150.19. Targets this week are located at 147.23 and 147.69. GBP/JPY to 147.23 should be an easy ride and overall GBP/JPY as well as GBP/USD contain astounding potential for miles higher. Only points below and good long points if seen are 146.58 and 145.61.

EUR/JPY should view as 122.00 to 125.00 then 125.00 to 128.00 and 128.00 to 131.00’s. The main break point to target 131.00’s is located at 130.01. EUR/JPY will find severe resistance at 130.51, 130.84 and 130.95.

Higher for EUR/JPY last week as mentioned would entail a struggle as 128.59 had to break to target 129.68. EUR/JPY traded to 128.52 then dived on Italian election concerns.Target this week is 129.44 on breaks of 128.01, 128.53, 128.72 then 129.11. Most important in this series is 128.53 to travel to target.

AUD/USD break point is located at 0.7624 to target 0.7691 and 0.7711. AUD must break first 0.7613 then home free to 0.7624 and higher. Last week AUD traded to 0.7592 then retreated to 0.7514 and closed at 0.7568. AUD was expected to break 0.7624 last week and this week contains a far better shot. Long only for the week is the only strategy as AUD will trade against a strongly bullish tone. Economic news this week contains Inflation, GBP, Retail Sales and RBA Tuesday. Long any drops to outside price events will offer great opportunities.

EUR/AUD break point is located at 1.5603. EUR/AUD will struggle at 1.5541, 1.5571 and good quick shorts if seen to target 1.5454. Overall nothing exciting exists in EUR/AUD. The import to 1.5603 break higher would see AUD/USD much lower and also to erase any gains seen above 0.7624. The preferred strategy is long any drops from lower 1.5300’s then target 1.5454.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, G10, Maintenance Periods: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Month end before QE and central bank control and management to exchange rates contained a significant meaning but today its a throw away term and lacks any importance.

Month end once meant a re calculation and adjustment to trading positions and this re calculation was an imperative because exchange rates moved 3, 4 and 500 pips on any given trading day. A huge difference existed from month to month and trading positions required adjustments because of the divergence between trend Vs Range pips. Trend pips were far more vital than range pips and a re calculation accounted for trend pip movements.

Today changed as ranges are more vital than trend pips.

USD/JPY for example moved barely 200 pips per month since Feb or recall the 2 month hold to EUR/AUD as it barely moved 300 pips per month. Take any pair within the 28 majors and monthly movements require practically zero adjustments but it depends on overall movements.

Month end was derived from bank Maintenance Periods as banks over past decades were responsible and traded the vast majority of exchange rates for the purpose to balance overall deposits.

Month End is counted by 35 days inside world banks Maintenance Periods and split as two 14 period days or 28 days in a given month and a total of 35 for those troubled banks who sought extensions to meet balance requirements. A bank in deficit at Maintenance Period end had to purchase cash while surplus banks sold cash. Month end is actually 28 and 35 days. Much more to Maintenance Periods such as interest paid to reserves but most simple is offered.

USD/CAD achieved 1.2864 Weekly target from yesterday’s BOC. Break point is now 1.2820 then hello 1.2500’s.

NZD/USD achieved weekly target at 0.6999. Break point for higher is now located at 0.7040.

USD/JPY achieved 108.62 target and break point for higher is now 109.31. At 109.47 should now eliminate as a break point.

AUD/USD break point is now 0.7626 and 0.7590 achieved so far. Target today is 0.7606 and a challenge to 0.7626 remains viable.

EUR/USD Weekly target at 1.1788 and 1.1824 achieved 1.1724 so far. Break point for higher is now located at 1.1914.

GBP/USD Weekly target at 1.3437 achieved 1.3347 so far. Break point for higher is located at 1.3573.

EUR/JPY break point at 128.59 was a challenge as mentioned and seen Monday when EUR/JPY traded 128.54 then dropped. Target remains 129.68 and 129.48 on a break of 128.59.

GBP/JPY remains over oversold and Weekly target remains 147.97 and traded so far 145.30.

Overall GBP/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/USD are within about 100 pips to target and 200 pips thereabouts for GBP/JPY which is in line.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, Sonia, G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

1 month after the BOE’s formal launch to its interest rate redesign, the system operates as normal however the great 1997 Sonia invention contains slight difference in meaning, understanding and application. It holds its power but under a slightly different context. Only those, especially bankers, with understanding to the prior interest rate system contains full comprehension to the new system.

Advantage goes to banks and derivative traders as they long prepared for this day but note banks and interest rate trader concern is an interest rate trade rather than a GBP trade. Both are miles apart to meaning, understanding and application. It was an imperative to understand the old system and relationship to GBP in order to apply GBP to the new standards.
What changed overall was time in relation to price as price lacks the same speed as it once held. Retail traders however still remain subjected to the scrap pips leftover from the pro traders against their perfect price knowledge.

Further to questionable changes and BOE interest rate adjustment insight is what is the interest rate Correlation to the money supply. As GBP and the BOE are far more closer to AUD and RBA than EUR, the assumption is Correlations are out of sync as it is for AUD.

Daily trades remain absolutely perfect as we prepared along with the bankers for GBP changes and applied the exact same methodologies.

EUR/USD. Recall the current 1.1550’s was the result of the 1.2358 break and EUR now traveled 800 pips. At 1.2358 is now 1.2312 and EUR is deeply oversold from this point. Today’s further break point to challenge again 1.2300’s is located at 1.1922 and as well is deeply oversold.

Oversold in context means the only 2 points remaining for EUR downside is located at 1.1369 and 1.1267. No such point exist for a 1.10 EUR presently and 1.10 won’t come into view if ever for many months. Again, we’re experiencing Banks turned retail traders against impossible to achieve forecasts and they cover the gambit, AUD 0.7100, EUR/GBP 0.9200, 0.9300, USD/JPY 117 in 3 months while 1 month already passed. Again, smart and skilled traders don’t write and why should they bother against today’s clutter and this includes me. Post to post from today’s writers looks like the same old tired thing,

Recall the USD/CAD trade from March at 1.3100’s and drop to 1.2500’s. USD/CAD today is located again 3 months later at its highs. Today’s short USD/CAD is a repeat to March as the highs are here again. The difference today is a 200 ish pip trade against March 600. USD/CAD’s break point today is 1.2819 and CAD remains severely overbought. Any price above 1.3002 is a sell only trade as USD/CAD’s overall strategy is short.

EUR/GBP also remains the gift that keeps on giving as highs are sold inside an overall short only strategy.

USD/JPY achieved 108.62 and traded to 108.11. USD/JPY’s break point is today’s 109.36. Above 109.47 is a problem for USD/JPY as its proper place is below 108.62.

EUR/JPY what remains to the downside is 123.00’s and 122.00’s and against a 10 year average at 125.24 while upsides exist at 130 and 131.00’s.

NZD/CAD held reported 0.8965 and bounced from 0.8971 to break 0.9006 and traded to 0.9026. NZD/CAD traded this week 55 pips. NZD/CAD at 0.9009 is an outlier number as it now trades in Skitzo land from 0.9009 to 0.9129 and 0.9141. NZD/CAD’s current position is quite dangerous and its not a currency pair to rush to trade until it leaves it skitzo qualities.

 

 

Brian Twomey

 

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The common theme in currency markets in the past 2 weeks was a standard 50 to 150 pip ranges against the caveat breakouts and big moves were on the way to expand trading ranges.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD held while GBP, EUR, USD/JPY and USD/CAD broke respective common theme ranges for 200 and 250 pips. JPY cross pairs traveled 200 and 400 pips. GBP/CAD as usual was the big winner in the Other Currency/CAD space at 270 pips while EUR/CAD traded 230 pips. Same scenario in GBP/CHF at 270 Vs EUR/CHF at 230.

The common theme among currency pairs rises this week to 75 and 200 pip ranges. Seen this week is USD drops vs corrections higher in Non USD pairs EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD as non USD achieved deeply oversold status. Despite correction, breakouts to respective break points will remain elusive as higher/ lower moves represent relief to oversold/ overbought conditions.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD will again fall into big winner status as well as deeply oversold JPY cross pairs in GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY. Deeply overbought USD/CAD will result in significant moves while USD/JPY will trade inside its normal 75 to 150 pip range. Overall currency markets functions as normal and outside danger to trade erratically is non existent.

As written weeks ago, all cross pairs became settled to respective prices to include JPY crosses and the USD V Non would lead the next market moves. This assessment was not only correct but USD V Non remains in full control to lead the cross pairs. Recall, March, April and part of May was strictly cross pair led while USD V Non held small ranges.

NZD/CAD was included this week because it wasn’t traded among the 28 majors during March, April and May trades. NZD/CHF, AUD/CHF and AUD/CAD remain holdouts to include in future posts.

EUR/USD targets this week are located at 1.1788 and 1.1824. Recall last week, EUR/USD achieved 1.1829 perfectly then dropped. Until EUR/USD breaks 1.1956 then moves higher must view as corrections to its current deeply oversold status. EUR/USD extremes below are located at 1.1625 and 1.1588. All week, EUR is in buy dip mode until targets achieve destinations. Target destination is expected early in the week and has potential to trade as AUD last week.

USD/JPY. Recall last week target at 109.46 achieved as USD/JPY had to trade to at least 109.46. Its did then continued its drop to 108.97 for a 241 pip weekly move from 111.38. This week USD/JPY target must trade to 108.62. Higher and not expected must break 109.47, 109.54 and 109.94. Most vital in this series is 109.54. USD/JPY sell rally is the way.

USD/CAD at 1.2974 trades at the upper top of its range and is skyrocket overbought. 3 weeks ago, USD/CAD top was located at 1.3038 while today the top is located at 1.3002. The averages are falling against CAD. The weekly target is located at 1.2864 for a 111 pip move. At 1.2864 is located just above vital point at 1.2833. Overall, CAD’s point at 1.2792 must break to target 1.2500’s. A break at 1.2833 then good shot to see CAD 1.2792 break lower.

GBP/USD is not only deeply oversold but GBP trades at the bottom portion of its range. The overall range is wide because its GBP’s normal wide ranges and trades from 1.3221 and 1.3285 to 1.3871. The must break point for significantly higher to target 1.3800’s and later 1.4100’s is located at 1.3614 and 1.3630. GBP/USD contains potential to trade easily to 1.3800’s. Target this week is located at 1.3437 for a 143 pip move and again inside the 150 ish common theme.

AUD/USD break point is located at 0.7625 and last week AUD traded to 0.7608 then dropped. At 0.7625 is expected to break to target next 0.7711, 0.7797 and later to 0.7808. AUD remains weeks later deeply oversold.

NZD/USD Break point is located at 0.7032 and 0.7041 to target 0.7132 and 0.7189. Overall, NZD as well remains deeply oversold and the weekly target is located at 0.6931 and 0.6999. Above 0.6999 then challenges 0.7041 break point.

GBP/JPY astronomical oversold targets this week 147.97 and if 149.09 breaks higher then further target becomes 150.36.

EUR/JPY targets this week 129.68 and this target is quite challenging as EUR/JPY must break 128.59 and 129.48. Despite deeply oversold, higher for EUR/JPY will remain a challenge as the averages work against EUR/JPY. The overall break point to confront top range point at 131.00’s is located at 130.94. A move higher in EUR/JPY as in GBP/JPY represents a correction to oversold.

NZD/CAD is firmly supported at 0.8593 and the break point for higher is located at 0.9006 from its 0.8971 close. A break at 0.9006 targets 0.9145 and 0.9165 and later 0.9189. Despite the 0.9006 break point, this level is not ready to break this week. The break point to decide higher or lower this week is located at 0.8965. Overall, no thrills exist in NZD/CAD.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

USD/JPY 4 days later from Sunday’s written post achieved target at 109.46 from low 111.00’s. Break points above at 109.58, 110.12 and 110.33 dictate further upside while 108.57 remains the further downside target.

EUR/USD achieved 1.1829 perfectly then dropped. EUR/USD will again rise to new target at 1.1824 and further upside to 1.1883.

Overall, EUR/USD and EUR cross pairs are fast approahcing bottoms and vital supports. This means EUR/USD fulfilled its price mission from 1.2300’s in March / April.

All eyes on the FED to offer Asymmetric and Neutral interest rates to further insult the intelligence of any market trader with understanding. Does anyone believe the FED ran 20 and 25 years Fed Funds data to know where the Neutral Rate is located. Neutral rates coming from a Fed to show 5 year median averages as Dot Plots. Meanwhile did 1 market reporter /analyst run 25 years of data and how many accepted the Fed hogwash as reality. The answer is none.

Fed or No Fed as just 1 example among all currency pairs, USD/JPY was going to Sunday’s reported target at 109.46. EUR/USD bounced around 63 pips on the FED and moved not one iota outside the overall 50 to 150 ranges contained inside 28 currency pairs. GBP/USD didn’t move. AUD/USD moved 30 pips.

Hourly charts are shown now 10 pip intervals as compared to days of old when 50 and 100 intervals were most common to all currency pairs. If shown a 1 inch candle and 20 and 40 pips traded in 1 swoop then the currency price didn’t move and overall the FED didn’t say anything nor moved any prices. Charts, indicators and all the rest are designed to slow and fool traders rather than assist. Trust the knowledgeable quantifications here as was trusted over many years.

How many central bank announcements, economic data and all the rest of the daily market baloney was involved to hit 400 and 500 pip targets 1 and 2 months away. The answer is zero as the currency price reaches its destination regardless to outside events. Shame on as unsuspected are subjected to such blah these days but more shameful to those to accept this stuff. Que Sera Sera

EUR and EUR cross pairs not only completed destinations but all are oversold to include EUR/JPY. EUR/CAD remains an outlier and sits aimlessly. EUR/NZD still contains the biggest move on the way. EUR/JPY is most oversold yet 129.00’s broke so EUR/JPY will see a review for next week.

EUR/USD break points are located at 1.1702 and 1.1982.

AUD/USD achieved 0.7604 this week and break point is now rising 0.7629

EUR/NZD 1.6997 must break higher to target 1.7022 and 1.7094. Note EUR/NZD traded below 1.7094 all week. Oversold for today begins at 1.6914.

NZD/USD break point is located at 0.7050.

USD/CAD break point 1.2772 to target below 1.2500’s.

CAD/JPY trades just below its break point at 85.80.

GBP/USD watch target today 1.3423.

GBP/JPY break point now 149.44 and at 146.00’s is past entry to the 149 target trade.

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

EUR/US and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

EUR/USD as written achieved perfection at 1.1829 then dropped. EUR/USD 1.1883 is next. Welcome to EUR day.

EUR/CHF touched 1.1712 then reported 1.1773 target achieved 1.1769. EUR/AUD had to trade to 1.1559, it did then traveled to 1.5489.

The cautious EUR/NZD at 1.7021 achieved 1.6931 but failed to mention 1.6885 as the further downside target and this applies to EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD downside as well. Zero traction to EUR/GBP’s downside as it maintained a 50 pip range. Higher for EUR/GBP will allow another short.

EUR/GBP remains years later, a severe problem pair and this will continue. We’ll take the quick 100 pip trades as break points materialize but never for longer term holds. Above 0.8800’s becomes untouchable but allows for a long term 100 ish pip short. Downside target remains 0.8663.

AUD/USD as written traveled 100 pips so far as its break point at 0.7628 is here. A break higher then 0.7811 becomes the target.

Failure to consult my notes for downside targets but overall, I manage everyday 10 and 15 currency pairs and added to another 9 posted amounts to 25 pairs. People win awards for far less than my overall trade performance.

EUR/JPY failed to report purposefully as 129.00’s to 132.00’s was reported ad nauseam for to long and it held as written.

EUR/JPY break point is now 131.42 to target 132.00’s. USD/CAD, same story since March ranges 1.2700;s to 1.3000’s. CAD break point today is 1.2763.

EUR/USD ranges are 1.1702 to 1.2002 and 1.2002 dropped 16 pips from 1.2018 Sunday. A drop on a higher EUR/USD warns a break higher is coming. A 1.2018 rise would warn to only correction.

GBP/USD break point now 1.3664 and a 9 pip drop since Sunday. Watch GBP/JPY break point at 149.62.

AUD/JPY sits above supports at 83.54 and 84.31. NZD/JPY from current 77.10 faces break points above at 77.27 and 77.72. An AUD/JPY correction will see GBP/JPY moving higher again.

USD/CHF 0.9930 holds CHF longs for now. USD/JPY still waiting for the first break at 110.33 to travel lower.

NZD/USD break now 0.7057.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and EUR Cross Pairs: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The commonality to currency markets this week as it pertains to EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and EUR cross pairs is all require a correction higher while USD/JPY desperately needs a correction lower. Correction for EUR/USD, EUR cross pairs and AUD means overall ranges from 50 to 150 pips and nothing at all special as downside prices traveled to oversold.

Note 50 to 150 pip ranges best describes the overall trading conditions in a vast majority of currency pairs and this means breakouts are coming to expand trading ranges.

Oversold and 150 pips is far to kind as applied to EUR and AUD but its USD/JPY easily will dictate EUR and AUD because USD/JPY needs a 150 pip correction. The higher USD/JPY travels from current prices without a correction then the harder it will fall in 1 fat candle. USD/JPY since March was and will remain the odd ball and problem currency pair as its price is far to high and it approaches dangerously high levels near 113.00’s.

Higher for EUR and AUD means its vital break points to travel higher will hold and lower USD/JPY also means its break point holds. Until vital points are broken then current trends remain and seen overall is a true correction. Further, all EUR cross pairs trade below vital break points.

EUR/USD and its cross pairs all remain comfortably below vital break points. EUR/NZD however contains severe pressure on current prices and must move higher but higher means a challenge to vital point at 1.7094. Yet at the 1.7021 close, EUR/NZD sits 1 pip below its important point at 1.7022.

While the SNB in 2009 released the 1.2000 Floor to the EUR/CHF Peg against EUR/USD, here’s EUR/CHF at 1.1743 and EUR/USD at 1.1771. The SNB’s Peg to EUR/USD is contained inside a whole different dimension as it allows EUR/CHF to trade within EUR/USD ranges.

It represents an unfair game as EUR/CHF is taken from its normal allowable trading ranges and eliminated as a standalone currency pair to trade. Of all EUR/USD cross pairs, EUR/CHF and EUR/NZD contain the widest ranges and on paper is allowed to move far and wide but the EUR/CHF Peg to EUR/USD cuts EUR/CHF to far less than 1/2 its allowable distance.

EUR/NZD price pressures is nothing new in the life of its ranges and seen all the time. In another few months, guaranteed we’ll see it again. The why is explained by completely dead European interest rates and the influence interest rates share to German yields. The ECB like the SNB and all central banks are equally abusive to their exchange rate ranges as they know exactly how to control the game and its not through yields any longer as once existed pre 2008 and post 2016 changes. For interested, the how aspect to yields, interest rates and central bank control was written in deep detail to the exact pip. We remain ahead of the central banks.

USD/JPY correction lower begins first at 110.33 then to target at 109.46. Many resistance points exist in the 109.00’s from 109.77, 109.87 to 109.46, 109.39 and 109.34. Overall break point for lower USD/JPY to target 108.44 is located at 109.39. Top channel is now 113.25. To understand slow grind, USD/JPY’s break point at 109.39 was 109.28 on Feb 23rd.

USD/JPY began its March journey higher from 104.00’s then it broke rough resistance zones at 106.00’s to next travel to and break of the next set of rough points at 108.00’s and trade to 110.00’s. The rough resistance points higher located every 200 pips forced a slow 3 months and 600 pip grind. Fed speakers and promise of Fed rate hikes forced USD/JPY higher as interest rates began to reflect the rise otherwise USD/JPY has no business at such high prices as miles of downside exits.

EUR/USD Vital break point is located at 1.2018 and not expected to break this week. A correction from deeply oversold forces EUR/USD higher to target first 1.1829 then 1.1883.

Overall EUR/USD dropped from 1.2500’s in February due to approach to the 10 year average at 1.2800’s and severely overbought from 1.1300’s, 1.1400’s and 1.1500;s. The big break at 1.2300’s then 1.2100’s was responsible to see current 1.1700’s. While 1.2018 is today’s break point for higher, 1.2300’s remains and will remain in many months to come as the vital break to see EUR back to 1.2500’s and higher. Further, weekly averages since February began its drop against a higher EUR and this week is no different therefore until the averages began to rise, the correct move higher represents a correction to the larger downtrend.

EUR/AUD target lower from the March short trade at 1.6100’s remains 1.5559. A correction is warranted first yet overall EUR/AUD remains in sell rally mode until 1.5500’s achieves its destination.

EUR/AUD break point is located at 1.5767, top channel at 1.5823 and again not expected to break anytime soon. Higher for EUR/AUD means a target at 1.5721 then begins the drop to 1.5631. Overall, AUD/EUR broke and must remain above 1.5765 as well as a higher expected AUD/USD to ensure EUR/AUD travels to 1.5631 and target to 1.5500’s.

EUR/CHF from its 1.1743 close faces it channel bottom at 1.1732 and 1.1719 as well as extreme oversold at 1.1675. EUR/CHF break point is located at 1.1807 and again not expected to break anytime soon. First target above is located at 1.1769 then 1.1788. The downside then resumes to 1.1719.

EUR/CAD. From the close at 1.5166, first target is located at 1.5199 then 1.5236. Overall break point is located at 1.5350 and top channel now at 1.5609. Recall the short in March from 1.5500’s. The top at 1.5609 is the result of weekly averages dropping since 1.5500’s in March.

EUR/NZD closed at 1.7021 and next prices are dictated by the break point at 1.7022. Below 1.7022 targets 1.6931 while above targets 1.7094 and 1.7113. Most vital for short continuation is for EUR/NZD to remain below 1.7094.

AUD/USD break point is located at 0.7622 while below AUD hits extreme prices at 0.7463. Same story reported week after week, AUD is deeply oversold. First target above is located at 0.7551 then 0.7586. Longer range target remains 0.7811.

EUR/GBP was reported last week and short remains the strategy to target first 0.8663 then 0.8500’s. Longs are impossible for weeks to come.

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

 

USD/CAD and CAD/JPY led the way in March for 600 pip moves then USD/CAD settled into a 300 pip range where it remained since March while CAD/JPY ranged roughly 100 to 150 pips.

EUR/JPY was already into its roughly 400 pip range from 129.00’s to 133 tops and not much changed since March. AUD/JPY settled into its 400 pip range from 80 to 84 however 80 and 84 were outliers as AUD/JPY hasn’t strayed far from 82’s since March. GBP/JPY’s 145 to 153 and 800 pip range remains the big mover yet recall May 8 and long from bottoms at 147.46 and overall 150 target.

Here’s the overall question: how many of the 35 currency pairs posted since March completed its 600 pip mission and to what time frame. 28 currency pairs in the majors are offered but not many of 28 are worth the trouble on long term holds.
EUR/AUD after 2 months just hit its 1.5736 target from 1.6100’s after 2 months for 200 pips per month. The optimum method to trade EUR/AUD to the 1.5736 target is by hitting daily highs then short, ht highs then short as gains far above 200 pips will be seen. The alternative is to plow into the 200 pips and live life outside the daily screens and pablum commentaries.

What is seen from 200 and 300 pip movements per month is the new currency market structure in place since June 2016. But 2 and 300 pips are trend pips as opposed to range pips, big difference. Central banks changed interest rates into a forced daily lending program to ensure nation’s money constantly moves but they streamlined the available borrow and lend ranges. Interest rates and lend/ borrow was the target designed for daily and short term moves and the exchange rate suffered the ancillary effects. CAD is the greatest mover because the BOC can’t nor won’t change its perfectly designed interest rate structure. Luckily for USD, Commercial Paper can’t be touched.

EUR/USD. What remains below is 1.1712 then 1.1588. Above must break 1.2045 to target 1.2100’s and 1.2200’s. Massive resistance exists at 1.2300’s.

USD/JPY Below break exist at 110.09 then 109.23. Above must break 110.44 and 110.46 to target 110.98 then 111.71. Top channel exists at 113.30.

GBP/USD. How about today’s break point is 1.3700, exactly at 1.370062. Break of 1.3700 targets 1.3890 then 1.4190. Below 1.3299 and 1.3193 remain vital supports.

GBP/JPY. 149.94 represents the current break point.

EUR/GBP from Monday sell 0.8817, traded to 0.8713 with a target at 0.8663. Sell rallies is the way for many weeks to come.

NZD/USD Break Point now 0.7074. Below breaks exist at 0.6869 and 0.6742.

AUD/EUR broke higher above 0.6300’s and explains why EUR/AUD now trades at 1.5600’s and on its way to 1.5500’s.

USD/CAD watch today 1.2763 as a break lower targets 1.2500’s.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Recall AUD/NZD March 30 when its price traded at lower 1.0600’s and the reported target was located at 1.0964. The target then was known and AUD/NZD would trade to target 1.0964. Nothing on this planet would or could stop AUD/NZD to not trade to target. I bailed on this trade for ? 75 ish pips due to extremely poor performance and poor market memories.

2 months later, AUD/NZD just traded to 1.0902. Two months later where is the target or adjusted target from 1.0964 is unknown as AUD/NZD wasn’t worth the trouble to inspect further at 150 pips per month. What is known at 300 pips from 1.0600’s is an under performed currency pair as currency markets are represented since March at overall 600 pips but far less today.

Adjusted target means every month or so may require a further inspection depending on the currency pair. Once a forecast is offered, the target is written in stone as was seen from past 35 trades. Today’s GBP/USD for example longer range target is 1.4199, 1 week ago was 1.4215 and 1.4225 from 2 weeks ago. GBP topside is dropping by roughly 10 to 15 pips per week. EUR/AUD target at 1.5736 from 1.6100’s achieved 1.5776 and is the probable target after 2 months.

Mind the Gaps. GBP/USD achieved today 1.3524. This price is located between today’s 1.3536 and 1.3511. But 1.3524 fails to represent the bottom. The bottom side has room and is located from 1.3511 to 1.3493 and 1.3493 to 1.3475. Mind the Gaps on the topside is located from 1.3593 to 1.3612. Further protection to the topside is built in at 1.3619 because GBP has a distinct habit once every 2 or 3 months to trade bonkers. We are always prepared and welcome bonkers but even more prepared to Mind every possible pip inside Gaps.

Overbought AUD/NZD break points below are located at 1.0771 and 1.0723. Nothing special in AUD/NZD.

USD/JPY at 109.97 trades at its break point and its do or die for JPY to break above at 110.08 or travel lower to its bottom break at 109.10.

USD/CAD trades close to its break points at 1.2770 then 1.2719. CAD remains range bound since March from 1.2700’s to 1.3000’s but a move is building inside CAD.

EUR/USD break point dropped 10 pips since Sunday from 1.2070 to today’s 1.2060. EUR/USD is contained today at 1.1893 and 1.1877.

GBP/JPY break at 148.99 targets 149.25 and 149.51. The break point is now 149.58.

USD/CHF sits comfortably above 0.9809.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The most important relationships in currency markets in past decades is most widely traded by actual numbers and % of all traded pairs is EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. EUR/JPY was the premiere risk pair as it defined direction to EUR/USD and USD/JPY as well as insights to USD Vs non USD currency pairs. Seen since Feb 23rd the EUR/USD and USD/JPY relationship was contained to barely 200 pip overall monthly ranges and 200 pip ranges in the majors contained EUR/JPY to a smaller degree.

Since Feb 23rd, USD/JPY rose 478 pips from 105.26 to 110.04 but then came the weeks of April 17 and April 24 when USD/JPY dipped to 104.64 and 104.58. USD/JPY actually rose 546 pips from 104.58 or 182 pips per month.

EUR/JPY rose 391 pips since Feb 23rd from 129.58 to 133.49 but then came the week of April 17 when EUR/JPY dipped to 128.97 then the actual pip jump was 452 pips or 150 pips per month.

EUR/USD jumped 320 pips between Feb 23rd to April 24th from 1.2158 to 1.2478 or 160 pips per month then dived 652 pips to last week’s 1.1822.

EUR/USD break point for higher is located at 1.2069 and this contains EUR/USD to roughly 1.1941 to 1.2195. Below, 1.1833 serves as this week’s long point to trade to 1.1941. The road higher to 1.2069 is rough as 1.1990 must clear first then 1.2009, 1.2039, 1.2046 and 1.2083.

USD/JPY must break is located at 109.04 then target at 108.08. USD/JPY must first break 109.21 then 109.12. Overall 109.99, 109.43 and 109.37 descends upon USD/JPY and protects the 110.07 break at the 5 year average. Good sell point at 109.99 and the same advice written last week at 109.97.

EUR/JPY sits on solid supports at 128.63 and 129.50, 129.18 and 129.01. The must break point for higher is located at 131.57. The 133 top written weeks ago is now 132.29. In the way to 131.57 is 130.76, 130.89 and 131.35. Watch for quick longs at 130.42 but overall nothing special in EUR/JPY.

EUR/GBP recall from the last trade is again at our sell point at 0.8813. EUR/GBP desperately needs a dive. Break points are located at 0.8796, 0.8794 and 0.8782. Below 0.8782 then targets 0.8665 and 0.8548 and 0.8533. Longs are impossible.

AUD/USD break Point is located at 0.7634 and above targets 0.7713, 0.7749 and 0.7778. First break point to 0.7634 are 0.7561 and 0.7601. Below is contained at 0.7519. Longer term target remains at 0.7816. AUD contains terrific potential higher.

GBP/USD Overall range is located at 1.3299 to the break point at 1.3721. Above 1.3721 targets 1.3805, 1.3883 and 1.3890. Longer term target is located at 1.4190. Below 1.3299 then comes 1.3193.  GBP contains great potential to travel much higher.

 

Brian Twomey

 

EUR, G10, Interest Rates, Gaps: Levels, Ranges, Targets

EUR/AUD shorts from upper 1.6100’s and target 1.5736 now trades 1.5776. The further target was written 1.5500’s from 1.6100’s. Don’t lose sight. Recall EUR/JPY 128.00’s to 131.00’s and 133.00 tops. Weeks and weeks later, EUR/JPY maintained the previously written range.

Mind the Gaps as this is the new concept derived by the central banks and it is found in the mystery rate. The BOE is the new member to the Mind the Gap strategy as they followed AUD and NZD. All formulated due to the perfection and long history from USD.

The ECB is the laggard but the ECB has been in a deep coma for many years and certainly since they went negative. The ECB settled then lost focus. The BOC by far is brilliant and like me is many miles ahead of the game. The BOC remains market oriented while most central banks seek and achieved exchange rate management.

The daily targets must account for the Gaps in order to hit perfect targets. The point of note is the GBP pairs posted 2 days ago. The lost point of note is the GBP pairs posted 2 days ago.

Given 2 exchange rates on 2 separate days, each contains a far different story. If for example USD/JPY was shown yesterday at 108.84. Yesterday’s 108.84 traded successfully for its significance then its forgotten as it doesn’t hold sway any longer. Today’s 108.84 holds a radically different set of information to trade and contains no information from yesterday.

Monday’s were designed decades ago to remain dead trading days. Technical analysis is impossible to explain this concept.

USD/JPY, Recall Monday 109.97 recommended sell point. USD/JPY as usual week after week brought the price to the brink and traded 110.01. It traded in overnight Asia at 109.19. The overall break point is located at 108.99. Far lower to 107’s on a break. Look for 109.64 and 109.88 to contain for today while 108.99 is blocked by 108.95.

GBP/JPY Contained above at 148.48 and break point at 149.63. Watch 147.22 below.

EUR/USD. Watch above 1.1958 on break 1.1934. Watch below 1.1876 and 1.1859. Overall break point 1.2078.

GBP/USD. Strong supports at 1.3460’s. Watch 1.3572 above on break of 1.3542. New Risk/ Reward definition, perfect.
Brian Twomey

 

EUR/USD and GBP, Carney: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Recall skyrocket overbought EUR/CAD at 1.5500’s against first target at 1.5300’s and much lower forecasted. Here’s EUR/CAD at 1.5100’s. EUR/CAD performed a GBP/CAD in beginning stages of the trade as GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD both bolted 100 ish pips higher before they embarked on the short journey. How much did 100 pips matter overall when GBP/CAD end result was 600 pips short from 1.17900’s to 1.7300’s and EUR/CAD 400 pips at 1.5100’s .EUR/CAD’s 400 pips revealed as stated how miserable is this currency pair despite miles overbought from 1.5500;s.

Most important overall is understanding to the 5 W’s of Journalism, Who, What, Where, When, how and WHY. Where, When, How and Why is most vital.

The main concept and roughest aspect is one must believe wholeheartedly in the numbers as presented and without a picture. If pictures states a 1000 words then the picture must also reveal 1000 possible outcomes. I alleviated the concept of pictures many years ago in favor of numbers and targets as I found pictures, candles and charts all wrong. Against the new structural currency price system, pictures, charts and candles are even more wrong.

Recall GBP/JPY from Monday and long from 147.46 to target 149.29 and today traded 149.23 for +177 pips. Yesterday’s GBP pairs achieved destinations, USD/JPY from Monday at 109.94 short point. And the list of trades and targets from past weeks goes on and on but without failure and without stops as a stop says I don’t trust, I don’t believe, I need protection. Stops are not needed here.

To restate from yesterday and Carney comments. All central bank economic releases are pretty much on target or extremely close. Nothing special in economics. The magic words to move the currency price are interest rates and interest rate related.
No raise anytime soon then look out below GBP. Consideration to raise end 2018 or 2019 then supported and higher GBP. Any commentary written in regards to GBP interest rates to high, to low, just perfect and the answer to the main ingredient is no.

GBP/USD. Break Point now 1.3745, GBP trades below, A break at 1.3558 targets 1.3536, 1.3519, 1.3510 and 1.3502. Above targets 1.3634 upon a break at 1.3606 and 1.3618.

GBP/JPY, Break Point 149.71, GBP/JPY trades below. A break at 148.88 and 148.63 targets 148.44, 148.35 and 148.26. Above 149.31 targets 149.73. Potential higher in GBP/JPY remains terrific.

GBP/CAD Break point now 1.7562. Watch below 1.7365 targets at 1.7343 and 1.7321, Above 1.7424 targets 1.7486 and 1.7497.

EUR/USD break point 1.2088, Watch below 1.1837, targets 1.1821 and 1.1813, Above 1.1881 and 1.1895 targets 1.1918.

USD/JPY Watch again today’s 109.95 and 5 year average at 110.06. Break Point below 108.95. look for higher and reversal at 110.08 and below 109.53, targets 109.39 and 109.26.

AUD/EUR break point 0.6324 and a close monitor for AUD/USD.

AUD remains lazer beam focus as potential higher is astounding. GBP/USD and GBP/JPY remain heavily focused for higher.

EUR/NZD Recall now trades again back at 1.7130’s and 1.7240’s. Short is the way.

USD/CAD watch break point 1.2777. Shorts and sell rallies was correct. Short and sell rallies will remain correct.

Brian Twomey