EUR/ZAR Weekly Trade Result and Update

EURZAR

Yesterday Results

Short 20.8159 to target 20.4004.

Highs 20.9319, Lows 20.6728

Wild upside Ride

Trade Runs from 20.8159 +1431 pips

From 20.9319 and add 1 lot then +2591 pips

Long way to target

Today Trade Results

Short 20.8159 to target 20.4004.

Lows 20.5094

Trade Runs from 20.8159 +3065 pips

From 20.9319, +4225 pips

To weekly totals add 1634 pips

Old Total 9 trades, 2 days, +4707 Pips

New total 9 trades, 2 days and +6341 pips

The week contains 3 more days of trading for all our currency pairs

Last time posted EM trades to this degree the total as I recall was 6000 ish pips

This week, I will break smash the old record.

Subtract EUR/ZAR entry then all trades contained near perfect entries. Targets have yet to achieve.

EUR/ZAR remains overbought at target 20.4004. Remainder trades remain oversold as follows: USD/RON, USD/HUF, USD/MYR,
USD/TRY and USD/BRL remain deeply overbought.

Same story to EM trades, no stops, no charts, no market banter talk that earns no money and is non actionable information.

Brian Twomey

USD/BRL Trade Results

USDBRL Weekly Trade As Posted yesterday Aug, 10, 2020. This is a new fresh trade 

 

Short 5.4977 and 5.4876 to target 5.4170.

Highs 5.4905, Lows 5.4011

Trade Runs +894 pips

Overall Target 5.3200’s

Running weekly Totals

 

 10 Trades, 2 days, +5601 pips

  3 days remain to Friday

 

Brian Twomey

Trade Results: USD/TRY, USD/RON, USD/MYR, USD/HUF, EUR/ZAR, USD/BRL, EUR/NZD

USD/TRY fresh Weekly Trades As posted yesterday

Short 7.3355 or anywhere in the vicinity to target 7.2227. Better target is 7.1662.
Highs 7.3494, Lows 7.2186

Trade Ran from entry Instruction +1128 pips

Target from 1st Trade 7.2276 achieved

2 Trades, 2 days, +1987 pips

USD/MYR

Long 4.1812 and 4.1779 to target 4.2109
Lows 4.1866, Highs 4.2064

missed entry, However Trade Runs +198 Pips

And 45 pips to target

USD/RON

Long 4.0955 and 4.0892 to target 4.1711
Lows 4.0978, Highs 4.1237

Trade Runs + 259 pips

Long way to target

USD/HUF

Long 292.13 and 291.72 to target 297.32
Lows 292.65, Highs 294.36

Trade Runs +171 pips

Long way to target

2nd round Longs, here today

EUR/ZAR

Short 20.8159 to target 20.4004.
Highs 20.9319, Lows 20.6728

Wild upside Ride

Trade Runs from 20.8159 +1431 pips

From 20.9319 and add 1 lot then +2591 pips

Long way to target

USD/BRL

Fresh Trade entered Yesterday from 5.48

Weekly Trade Results

USDTRY 2 trades +1987 pips

USDBRL +859 Pips

EURZAR +1431 pips and 2531

USDRON 259 pips

USDHUF 171 pips

USDMYR +198 pips

8 trades, 2 days + 4563 Pips

EUR/NZD

Short 1.7855 and 1.7880 to target 1.7683
Highs 1.7873, Lows 1.7729

Trade runs +144 pips

Total 9 trades, 2 days, +4707 Pips

 

Brian Twomey

USD/TRY and USD/BRL: New Trades

Both USD/TRY and USD/BRL are at short point highs again and this means Re Short for another weekly trade

USD/TRY

Short 7.3355 or anywhere in the vicinity to target 7.2227. This target leaves USD/TRY in deep overbought territory. Better target is 7.1662.

Current USD/TRY trades at 7.3300’s, a fresh trade is upon us.

USD/BRL

Short 5.4977 and 5.4876 to target 5.4170.

Current USD/BRL trades 5.4818, a fresh trade is upon us.

 

Brian Twomey

Weekly Trade Results: USD/TRY and USD/BRL

USDTRY Weekly trade As Posted

Short 7.3067 and 7.3199 to target 7.2276

Highs 7.3494, Lows 7.2340 Trade Runs from 7.3199, +859 pips

Almost to Target

 

USDBRL Weekly trade As Posted Short 5.4452 just ahead of 5.4553 to target 5.3237.

  Highs 5.4398, Lows 5.3534

Trade Runs +864 Pips

Almost to target

2 Trades, 1 day and +1723 pips.

Both USD/TRY and USD/BRL are at short point highs again and this means Re Short for another weekly trade

 

Brian Twomey

Weekly Trades: EUR/NZD and GBP/JPY

EUR/NZD

Short 1.7855 and 1.7880 to target 1.7683

Short 1.7626 to target 1.7513.

Long 1.7683 to target 1.7739.

GBP/JPY

Short 138.55 and 138.73 to target 136.68

Long 136.68 to target 137.87.

Short 136.51 to target 135.14.

 

Brian Twomey

Weekly Trades: AUD/BRL, EUR/ZAR, USD/HUF, USD/MYR, USD/BRL, USD/RON, USD/TRY

Emerging market currencies contain higher exchange rate numbers and far wider ranges than its 28 counterparts whose exchange rate numbers are lower against much smaller ranges. Other than this difference between exchange rates, no distinction exist between EM and 28 currency counterparts.

Best EM trades are found to capture the discrepancy between exchange rate ranges from the 28 counterparts. Currently, TRY, BRL and ZAR contain great opportunities from deeply overbought short, medium and long term. The problem is USD and EUR remain widely entangled with each currency and a break out is warranted yet still not seen.

In a past PLN trade article, addressed was USD/PLN and EUR/PLN contained no distinction as both exchange rates held a small distance. Both exchange rates traded together as one currency and both were either oversold or overbought. The last month’s EUR/USD rise allowed a firm breakout between USD/PLN and EUR/PLN so now a true trade exists and a double trade as for example, long USD/PLN and short EUR/PLN.

The past month’s EUR/USD rise however was far to small to force a break out to USD/TRY Vs EUR/TRY, USD/ZAR Vs EUR/ZAR and USD/BRL Vs EUR/BRL. And why is because EUR/USD ranges are far to small against wide ranges to TRY, BRL and ZAR.
For EUR/USD may move 2 and 400 pips but wide rangers TRY, ZAR and BRL may move 1000 pips and this wouldn’t come close to forcing a breakout.

More time is required before a possible breakout is seen and this assumes USD or EUR will move more widely. A range bound market to USD and EUR will only force TRY, ZAR and BRL ranges to hold much longer.

USD/BRL

Short 5.4452 just ahead of 5.4553 to target 5.3237. Must break 5.3642.

EUR/ZAR

Short 20.8159 to target 20.4004. must cross 20.5851. The target of this trade leaves EUR/ZAR in overbought territoty. The actual target and to have a fighting chance to breakout from USD/ZAR, then EUR/ZAR should trade to at least 20.2158.

USD/TRY

Short 7.3067 and 7.3199 to target 7.2276, must cross 7.2804. The target still leaves USD/TRY in deep overbought territory. USD/TRY should trade to easily 7.0654 and should attain this target easily.

AUD/BRL.

Short 4.0189 to target 3.8428. This target leaves AUD/BRL in deep overbought territoy as AUD/BRL should trade to easily 3.8100’s. Longer term, AUD/BRL is overbought to richter scale levels short, medium and long term. AUD/BRL should contain a 2.000 handle.

USD/MYR

Long 4.1812 and 4.1779 to target 4.2109. Target leaves USD/MYR deeply oversold as USD/MYR should trade to easily 4.2300’s.

USD/RON

Long 4.0955 and 4.0892 to target 4.1711. USD/RON contains easy potential to trade 4.1900 and 4.2000’s.

USD/HUF

Long 292.13 and 291.72 to target 297.32. The target leaves USD/HUF in deep oversold as a better target is 301.00’s.

EUR/USD 24 Hours Ahead

From USD rates

Long short Line 1.1776

Most Important 1.1741 and 1.1753 Vs  1.1783, 1.1791, 1.1798,, ,1.1806, 1.1821, 1.1828, 1.1832  1.1836

Bottom. 1.1717 achieves by 1.1746 and 1.1761

Upper target 1.1836

Continuation Fail 1.1806

Break Point 1.1457

 

From European rates

Long Short Line 1.1776

Most Important 1.1730 1.1747 vs 1.1783, 1.1790, 1805, 1.1820, 1.1827, 1.1831, 1.1835

Bottom. 1.1717 achieves by 1.1746 and 1.1761

Upper target 1.1835

Continuation Fail 1.1805

Break Point 1.1457

 

Longer term most Vital points from European Interest rates 1.1684 and 1.1747 Vs Above 1.1805 vs 1.1868

If 1.1836 and 1.1835 breaks higher then 1.1868 is next vital point. Rare day for EUR/USD to break higher so 1.1868 is useless however as Peter would say, what about an outside event to hit markets or an implosion. Imperative to be prepared.

Longer term most vital points from USD Rates 1.1634 and 1.1681 vs above 1.1871 and 1.1919.

 

No difference between USD and European Interest rates for exchange rate trading purposes. An exchange rate is a glorified interest rate given a different number than an actual interest rate so to create and sustain a market in exchange rate price trading.

We don’t need an exchange rate market cause we could trade only interest rates. View the Sumerians from Iraq antiquity and see how they traded and traded to exchange goods then one would understand this comment. Many academic papers were written on the subject.

The real difference between USD and European Interest Rates is USD rates are high while European interest rate are low. I’m not defining this comment but low interest rates means a higher exchange rate ahead and high interest rates means a lower exchange rate. Unless a change in rates is seen and not likely, especially in these days of dead interest to exchange rates.

Interest rate markets alone as traded instruments is a whole different story but interest rates to exchange rates is the same old tired story since the 2015/2016 changes.

For the next 24 hours, above trades will be either near exact or extremely close. The above methodology to interest rates applies to any financial instrument.

The step ladder to markets works like this: Interest rates, exchange rates, yields then comes commodities and stock markets.

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

Weekly and Daily Trades

Here is the mastery of our trades and the result of many, many years of extraordinarily hard work, tests and tinkering with methods and concepts. I read central bank research papers and Red books to understand what and how central banks trade and view exchange rate concepts.

Red book derives from the BOE but all central banks have a colored coded book with calculations and methodologies to factor their entire economic system to include exchange rates. More than a few of the major central banks today have Red books hidden from the public. The RBA is one example while the ECB’s Statistical Data Warehouse today  became a nightmare to navigate.

The BOE no longer posts its RED book. Sad because the BOE is the most open and best market oriented central bank on the planet. Most open is the FED and RBNZ.  Best is EM central banks such as South Korea, Poland, Brazil, Malaysia, Romania and many others.

No mysteries exist to factor an economic release, yield curves, interest rates, exchange rate trade methodologies and all financial instruments. The central banks are wide open to allow views to their systems. and if a concept is not understood then shoot an email and a reply will come instantaneously.

The BOE for example factors exchange rates by R2 and Student T Statistics. Very simple and highly reliable to calculate and trade but easier to use Simple Regression  as this is a true trend line and it holds for many years.

If for example, GBP was located at the bottom or top of the trend line, the BOE buys or sells  GBP and holds the trade for years. Sometimes they match the trend line by verification of the long term Forward exchange rate premium and Discount. Premium and discount is posted on the BOE site for public view and for many currencies, including Gold factored to GBP.

Not all Central banks control or factor interest rates as they allow the nations’ banking authority to perform interest rate calculations and functions. Every central bank is different and no two are alike.

Weekly and Daily Trades

 

Day trades were derived for example from the ECB and the re jigger to interest rates. The understanding was acquired from the BOE.

I simply adopted central bank methods and factored reliable trades. One looks and sounds archaic today talking about about daily interest rate trades,

Think about these concepts, that nobody on the planet does or can do to trades.

1. Targets. I mastered targets dating to 2012 and no difference exists today.

2. Price Paths. These are vital exchange rate points that must break to allow a price to reach its target destination. It allows the trader to follow the trade or to allow a trader to take profit anywhere along the price path. This price path concept applies to day, weekly and long term trades.

3. Continuous trades. Day or weekly trades contain multiple longs and shorts to allow for continuous trading and continuous profits for each currency pair to trade on every trading day.

4. Break Even. Now and then I miss an entry. This past month has seen rare missed entries. We trade to break even by adding 1 lot or the end result will be profit on 2 lots, the added lot and original lot. Either way, trade to break even means no losses.

5. Benchmark day trades. By watching day trades, the determination is known when weekly targets will reach its trade destination.

6. Weekly trades are known Saturday as traders are fully prepared for the week to entries and targets.

7. No Stops, no charts, no graphs, no ancillary market baloney talk of the day.

8. Day, weekly and long term trades are all factored by pen, paper and calculator. This method hasn’t changed in 10 + years except I have today calculators to enter prices and all relevant trade information is available. This still requires work. The 2012 trades were all factored by Pen, paper and calculator.

9. Difference between trades is we are early in our entries and targets compared to the vast majority of traders. But also we are never wrong. May miss an entry from time to time but targets always achieve.

 

Brian Twomey

 

GBP/USD, EUR/USD, EUR/CAD

 

GBP/USD

1.2942
1.2892 1.2690
1.2993 1.2589
1.3094 1.2488
1.3195 1.2387
1.3296 1.2286
1.3397 1.2185
1.3498 1.2084
1.3599 1.1983

EUR/USD

1.1527 1.1386
1.1597 1.1315
1.1738 1.1174
1.1879 1.1033
1.2020 1.0892
1.2161 1.0751
1.2302 1.0610
1.2443 1.0469
1.2584 1.0328

 

EUR/CAD

1.5525 1.5397
1.5590 1.5333
1.5718 1.5204
1.5847 1.5076
1.5975 1.4947
1.6104 1.4819
1.6232 1.4690
1.6361 1.4562
1.6489 1.4433

 

No charts, No graphs, No stops, No Fibonacci. How about no reliance on incompetent trade services and crooked Fx retail elites

Brian Twomey

Day and Weekly Trade Results: AUD/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/CAD

AUD/USD Break 0.7212, Traded to 0.7175 and +37 pips

GBP/USD Break 1.3126, Traded to 1.3061 and + 65 pips

2 quick day trades +102 pips

Purpose for day trades is profit and / or benchmark to watch for weekly trade target.

EUR/CAD

Short 1.5820 and 1.5850 to target 1.5460.

Highs, 1.5826, Lows 1.5684 trade Runs +142 pips Long way to target

Last week’s trade suffered a loss and entry short was 1.5685 and 1.5678.

 

EUR/CAD Last Week

Short 1.5678 and 1.5685 to target 1.5473

Option is exit last week’s trade at break even and +142 pips for this week’s trade or hold both lots to target.

 

GBP/USD Last week

Short 1.2802 or anywhere to target 1.2648.
Highs 1.3170

GBP/USD This week

Short anywhere or 1.3079 and 1.3088 to target 1.2723.

Highs 1.3186, Lows 1.2981

Today lows 1.3014

Trade runs +74 pips and reduces last week;s loss.

Strategy so far is trade to break even.

We got caught and rare to happen but I know exactly what I’m doing

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

 

 

Day Trade: AUD/USD Vs USD/AUD

 

 

      AUD/USD
 long short line 0.7212
 Most Important 0.7184 and 0.7207 Vs 0.7216, 0.7221, 0.7226, 0.7231, 0.7239, 0.7244 and 0.7249
 Bottom. 0.7176 achieves by 0.7193 and 0.7174
 Upper target 0.7249
 Continuation fail 0.7231
 Break Point 0.6947
                VS USD/AUD
           Actual
 Long Short Line 1.3865
Most Important 1.3695 and 1.3754 or
AUD/USD 0.7301 and 0.7270
Vs above 1.3873, 1.3882, 1.3891, 1.3899, 1.3909, 1.3918, 1.3926, 1.3935
= AUD/USD 0.7208, 0.7203, 0.7198, 0.7194, 0.7189, 0.7184, 0.7180, 0.7176
 Bottom. 1.3795 achieves by 1.3830 and 1.3812 Or
 Bottom. AUD/USD 0.7249, 0.7230 and 0.7240.
Upper target 1.3935 or AUD/USD 0.7176
 Continuation Fail 1.3899  Or AUD/USD 0.7194.
 Day trade AUD/USD Vs USD/AUD
Higher AUD/USD at target 0.7249 Hits USD/AUD bottom 0.7249 or 1.3795.
USD/AUD at upper target = 1.3935 = AUD/USD Bottom at 0.7176.
day trade complete
80 day trades are traded every week, twice daily or 320 day trades every month. That’s 8 currency pairs traded twice daily for continuous trades.
              Brian Twomey

 

Anatomy of a Day Trade: GBPUSD

 

 

                               GBP/USD
 Long Short Line 1.3126
 Most Important 1.3087 and 1.3101 vs 1.3134, 1.3142, 1.3151, 1.3159, 1.3176, 1.3183 and 1.3192
 Bottom. 1.3061 achieves by 1.3094 and 1.3077
 Upper target 1.3192
 Continuation fail 1.3159
 break Point 1`.2779
           The Process
 1. factor the bottom 1.3061, Given by Central bank interest rates.
2. Factor most Important to bottoms. 1.3087 and 1.3101. Those are vital average lines offered by central bank interest rates.
So far we have 1.3101, 1.3094, 1.3087 Most Important, 1.3077 then 1.3061 Bottom.
Bottom Complete. Now able to trade bottom prices.
3. Factor Upper target and Continuation fail Lines. Upper Target = 1.3192 Range Factor,
Continuation fail 1.3159 = MA or 1/2 distance
4. Factor upper levels 1.3134, 1.3142, 1.3151, 1.3159, 1.3176, 1.3183 and 1.3192. Eliminate most vital 1.3192 and 1.3159
We have 1.3134, 1.3142, 1.3151, 1.3176, 1.3183
Break Point = Most Vital MA Line. We track this number twice daily. My system allows this to monitor changes by inserting the daily trade number. A price break above, Long. A price break below then short.
All see the trade as GBP/USD.
The actual Day trade and what is not seen is GBP/USD Vs USD/GBP.
By transposing interest rates to exchange rates, we are able to capture perfectly the range and relationship as GBP/USD Vs USD/GBP.
In 90% + of day trade instances, ranges don’t ever break but its impossible to break because of the range relationship GBP/USD Vs USD/GBP.
 Analysts and commentators say, GBP/USD traded to X Point. Wrong.
Lower GBP/USD maybe only GBP/USD trading while higher maybe USD/GBP trading.
The overall range is generally  factored as 1/2 to GBP/USD and 1/2 to USD/GBP.
The day trade and trade strategy is known long in advance and no mysteries to strategy.
Profit per currency pair is about 50 ish pips per day as a good average. Some days, a bit more, other days, a bit less.
 The day trade system was invented by reading academic papers on new Central bank interest rate and trade methodologies.
For example, they best trades says the BOE are found at 3 news announcements, UK, EUROPE and 8:30 am United States
               Strategy
 Purpose of this system is to trade multiple longs and shorts rather than 1 trade that pays nothing then walk away from the pair.
    Trade strategy.
 1. daily trades best trade opportunities are 3 news announcements for UK, Europe and 8:30 am EST United States.
2. Best strategy is short at or near upper target or long at or near bottoms.
3. Purpose for my day trades is to allow multiple longs and shorts in each currency pair to allow for continuous trade profits.
4. Day trades are used also to track weekly trades. Means day trades inform when will weekly targets achieve destinations.
5. Object for day trades is extra pips for the week so never to get greedy or hold to earn last traded pip.
 6. Long short line. Take the trade in the direction of the break when it complies with the weekly trade. EUR/USD this week is overbought and we are short therefore take the break of the line when price breaks below and trade to at or near bottoms.
7. Multiple trades means long at or near bottoms and short at or near upper targets. or short at or near upper targets and long at or near bottoms. This scenario happens everyday with every currency pair. Don’t trade when price is at center of overall prices.
8. Ranges rarely break except for GBP but it doesn’t happen often. A range break above upper target or below bottoms is a free market gift for free money.
9. A price breaks range above upper target or below bottoms mean price must by math law trade back to above bottoms and below upper target.
10. Most Important are vital daily averages. they change everyday.
11. Continuation fail Line is an average and must break higher in order for price to trade to upper target. A price may fail and reverse short at the continuation fail line.
 12. For long trades are provided most vital trade able points so to follow the trades and to know exactly where the price is located.
13. In all, a low price at or near bottoms will travel long and a price at or near upper target will trade short.
14. use the Long Short Line as the guide.
                        \
               Comparision
  GBP/USD
 Long Short Line 1.3126
 Most Important 1.3087 and 1.3101 vs 1.3134, 1.3142, 1.3151, 1.3159, 1.3176, 1.3183 and 1.3192
 Bottom. 1.3061 achieves by 1.3094 and 1.3077
 Upper target 1.3192
 Continuation fail 1.3159
 break Point 1`.2779
                 USD/GBP
 Long short Line 0.7618 or 1.3127 GBP/USD
Most Important 0.7525, 0.7571,  0.7649 and 0.,7679 = GBP/USD 1.3289, 1.3208 1.3073 and 1.3022
vs above 0.7627, 0.7637, 0.7647 and 0.7652 Or GBP/USD 1.3113, 1.3094, 1.3077, 1.3068.
Bottom. 0.7579 achieves by 0.7578 and 0.7586. Or GBP/USD 1.3194, 1.3196 and 1.3182.
Upper Target 0.7657 or GBP/USD 1.3059
Continuation fail 0.7637 or GBP/USD 1.3094
  Higher GBP/USD trades as GBP/USD and lower trades as USD/GBP.
 if GBP/USD hits 1.3059 then it trades to USD/GBP bottom. USD/GBP trades from 1.3059 to 1.3095
 The USD/GBP aspect is taking the example to a degree not necessarily required and a bit more explanation required.  As the main point is a day trade is the relationship between the currency pair and its opposite.
         Brian Twomey

5 and 10 Year Averages

Last time we visited 5 year averages, the vast majority of 28 currency pairs traded not only below but far below. The moment is here for Non USD pairs to head higher and break 5 year averages or the huge reversal is upon us. The EURUSD is the main pair to watch as it leads its counterparts by break of its 5 year and now approaches the 10 year at 1.2182.

GBP/USD and USD/CAD at 1.3252 and 1.3189 is also upon us. If both break higher and lower then GBP/JPY becomes a great long term trade higher.

AUD/USD at 0.7283 is here while NZD/USD contains another 200 pips to its 5 year.

EUR/JPY is the outlier within JPY cross pairs as it broke its 5 year average at 124.98 and next comes the 10 year at 129.00’s. Problem is 125.00’s contain many resistance points dating to 1998 at 125.27 125.59 and 125.70, then comes 126.05.

GBP/CHF as mentioned remains a great long term trade as its 5 year average is located at 1.3014. Same for AUD/CHF.

GBP/CAD remains a problem and will maintain problem status for many months in the future. EUR/CAD qualifies as the better trade. AUD/CAD remains its traditional dead mover.

GBP/NZD doesn’t have a clue which direction to take while EUR/NZD is the better trade, particularly subject to an out of control EUR/USD.

EUR/AUD is the better trade to GBP/AUD although GBP/AUD is deeply oversold from a long term basis.

EUR/GBP long term is massively overbought and is a non trade able currency pair

 

USD V Non USD

EUR/USD 5 year average 1.1290, 10 year 1.2182

GBP/USD 5 year 1.3252

AUD/USD 5 year 0.7283

NZD/USD 5 year 0.6805

USD/CAD 5 year 1.3189

USD/JPY 5 year 110.74, 10 year 102.19

USD/CHF 5 year 0.9822, 10 year 0.9546

JPY Cross Pairs

EUR/JPY 5 year 124.98, 10 year 129.23

GBP/JPY 5 year 146.98

AUD/JPY 5 year 80.65

NZD/JPY 5 year 75.33

CAD/JPY 5 year 84.03

CHF/JPY 5 year 112.76

CHF

EUR/CHF 5 year 1.1085, 10 year 1.1591

CBP/CHF 5 year 1.3014

AUD/CHF 5 year 0.7152

NZD/CHF 5 year 0.6683

CAD/CHF 5 year 0.7453

CAD

EUR/CAD 5 year 1.4879

GBP/CAD 5 year 1.7472, 10 year 1.7116

AUD/CAD 5 ear 0.9594, 10 year 0.9817

NZD/CAD 5 year 0.8966

NZD

EUR/NZD 5 year 1.6622

GBP/NZD 5 year 1.9521, 10 year 1.9751

AUD/NZD 5 year 1.0702, 10 year 1.1362

AUD

EUR/AUD 5 year 1.5536

GBP/AUD 5 year 1.8238, 10 year 1.8627

EUR/GBP 5 year 0.8548

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

Weekly Trade Synopsis

AUD/USD and NZD/USD and cross pair trades over weeks responded near perfectly to entries targets.

GBP/AUD was the best trade this week for 200 ish pip. EUR/AUD never hit entry. Overbought GBP/CAD was good as expected, despite an overall problem pair, from short 1.7500’s.

Most vital to currency markets overall is the GBP/USD and USD/CAD relationship due to positions as direct opposites. Normal trading GBP/USD and USD/CAD respond near perfectly to entries and targets. Means automatic longs and shorts.

The effect of a perfect market and relationship to GBP/USD and USD/CAD is pairs affected are CAD/JPY and GBP/JPY. its 4 pairs and 4 trades.

2 markets exists in currency trading, normal and non normal. Over the past 4 ish years and 208 weeks of trading to trade 12 and 18 currency pairs, normal trading existed in something like 90% + of weeks. Normal means entries and targets respond as expected and generally this has been the case. Normal trading also means A price that misses an entry is not a worry as targets always achieve destinations in the same week. A missed entry is a market gift for free money as the price overshot.

In rare weeks, targets achieve within the first day or two at weeks beginning of the next week. But at week’s end, the trade may not hit target yet the trade is in profit. I always recommend to take profits to prepare for a fresh trade in the new week as fresh trades are much easier and profits come quickly. Makes no sense to struggle over a few pips that didn’t hit target, especially when profits exist. The name of the game is get the money in the account.

I don’t have a complete analysis on non normal markets because I no longer take a weekly tally of trade results. The 4 or 5 months in 2019 when I took a weekly tally of trades and results, all was working fine and no need existed to check further, especially when this takes hours every Friday. I begin factoring weekly trades every Friday night and end Saturday morning. This is a monstrous weekly job because of the time involved to ensure I’m correct and delivering correct trades.

For non normal markets,  I can say over the past 4 ish years, non normal markets never lasted more than 1 or 2 weeks. Why is because 1, 2 or maybe 3 currency pairs were not price normal and the market always corrected for this non normality. If say 14 or 15 pairs are trading normally then the 3 or 4 pairs not trading normally will correct and trade normally again very quickly. The correctness of the overall normality of prices forces any outlier pairs to correct.

Non normal markets over the past 4 ish years never affected the USD V Non USD currency pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD  Vs USD/CAD. Only 1 time this happened and it was when GBP/USD drifted every week from 1.2900’s to 1.1900’s.

Non normal prices are the effect of cross pairs because they contain wider ranges than USD V Non pairs. And because more cross pairs exist Vs the 7 USD V non USD pairs. GBP/NZD can only travel so far in relationship to GBP/USD or

EUR/AUD can only travel so far in relationship to EUR/USD. Or EUR/NZD can only travel so far in relationship to EUR/NZD or GBP/AUD to EUR/AUD to GBP/AUD. Bu then comes weeks where divergence exists between certain pairs such as EUR/NZD Vs GBP/NZD. The key is stand clear of divergence.

 

If cross pairs are affected but USD v Non trade normally then cross pairs can only trade so far in relationship to their main base in the USD Vs non USD space. The opposite holds true. If for example, the USD V non USD traded non normally then they can only travel so far in relationship to respective cross pairs.

The last 4 weeks or so is extraordinary to non normal markets as all pairs are effected and this includes USD V non USD and cross pairs. This is a time of deep caution until this period subsides and trades normally again. I don’t remember when was the last time we saw such non normal markets in totality. We must travel back many years to find this answer.

Non normal prices refers to the depth and degree of oversold Vs overbought as we now live in far and deep extremes. In the longer run, this time represents extraordinary opportunity. For the weekly trade, this time represents trouble to entries but not to targets.

Its vital for traders to know when non normality to prices hit markets so to know how to trade and to correct entries. Never trade an overbought or oversold price to more overbought or oversold. That’s not trading, its gambling or Russian roulette and can damage an account because an extreme overbought or oversold price is subject to deep reversals anytime the match is lit.  A few examples.

This week’s deeply overbought EUR/NZD decides to travel about 100 pips higher above entry while GBP/NZD never achieved its entry. EUR/NZD went on the move while GBP/NZD stood still. Correct is when both move together in tandem.

Last week’s USD/CAD and CAD/JPY trades were good to entries and close to targets while GBP/USD and GBP/JPY went ballistic. If USD/CAD and CAD/JPY traded just a bit more to targets then GBP/USD and GBP/JPY would’ve never traded to such wild extremes. Currency prices have a habit of containing each other as one pair won’t allow the next pair to gain such a price advantage.

USD/CAD practically stood still and allowed GBP to trade to extremes.

Targets are never the issue to trades but its entries that matter most. Entries in normal markets work to possible maximum misses as 50, 100 and 150 pips to account for USD V Non pairs for 50, then 100 pips for medium term movers such as EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD then 150 to wide rangers GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD. Missed entries are generally not the order of the day in normal markets. More normal is 20, 50 and 75 for wide rangers.

For AUD/USD and NZD/USD and cross pairs, 50 pips is about max to a missed entry.

 

More later, gotta go,

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exchange Rates: Reciprocals, Forwards and Factor Currents Rates

1 divide exchange rate offers the reciprocal of the exchange rate. Reciprocal was the word used in the old days and it was a matter of course. Today, reciprocal means opposite and most today associate reciprocal as opposite and its termed opposite by today’s trading crowd.

1+ is vital to factor an interest rate to obtain a true interest rate because interest rates are offered and seen by the public as a percentage.

1000 becomes vital to factor not only exchange rates but Forward exchange rates.

Most important formula in all FX trading is

Interest Rate differential X number of days X Outright or Interest rate base divide by Day Count ( 360 or 365) X Spot price X 100.

Forward exchange rates are factored also by Forward points as Spot price + divide by Forward points divide by 1000. Spot + answer to forward points divide 1000 = Forward exchange rate.

Easier ways exist to accurately trade to a long term target.

EUR/USD 1 divide current 1.1796 = USD/EUR 0.8477. Opposites hold true as 1 divide USD/EUR 0.8477 = EUR/USD 1.1796.

EUR/JPY 1 divide Current 124.97 = JPY/EUR 0.0080019. Must take JPY pairs to minimum 7 decimal places to the right.

EUR/JPY 1 divide 1.2497 = JPY/EUR 0.80019204

See the difference.

EUR/JPY exchange rate is found by EUR/USD X USD/JPY

1 Divide current EUR/CHF 1.0788 = CHF/EUR 0.9269.

EUR/CHF exchange rate is found by EUR/USD X USD/CHF

EUR/CAD 1 divide current 1.5775 = CAD/EUR 0.6339.

EUR/CAD exchange rate is found by EUR/USD X USD/CAD

EUR/NZD 1 divide current 1.7821 = NZD/EUR 0.5611.

EUR/NZD exchange rate is found by divide EUR/USD by NZD/USD

NZD/EUR exchange rate is found by NZD/USD divide EUR/USD

EUR/AUD 1 divide current 1.6501 = AUD/EUR 0.6060.

EUR/AUD exchange rate is found by EUR/USD Divide AUD/USD

AUD/EUR exchange rate is found by AUD/USD divide EUR/USD

EUR/GBP 1 divide current 0.9025 = GBP/EUR 1.1090.

EUR/GBP exchange rate is found by EUR/USD divide GBP/USD

GBP

GBP/USD 1 divide by current 1.3054 = USD/GBP 0.7660.

Opposite holds true as 1 divide USD/GBP 0.7660 = GBP/USD 1.3054.

GBP/JPY 1 divide current 138.34 = JPY/GBP 0.00722856

GBP/JPY exchange rate is found by GBP/USD X USD/JPY

GBP/CHF 1 divide by current 1.1945 = CHF/GBP 0.8371.

GBP/CHF exchange rate is found by GBP/USD X USD/CHF.

GBP/CAD 1 divide current 1.7471 = CAD/GBP 0.5723.

GBP/CAD exchange rate is found by GBP/USD X USD/CAD

GBP/NZD 1 divide current 1.9733 = NZD/GBP 0.5067

GBP/NZD exchange rate is found by GBP/USD Divide NZD/USD

NZD/GBP exchange rate is found by NZD/USD divide GBP/USD

GBP/AUD 1 divide current 1.8266 = AUD/GBP 0.5474

GBP/AUD exchange rate is found by GBP/USD divide AUD/USD

AUD/GBP exchange rate is found by AUD/USD divide GBP/USD

AUD

AUD/USD 1 divide current 0.7138 = USD/AUD 1.4009

USD/AUD 1 divide current 1.4009 = AUD/USD 0.7138

AUD/JPY 1 divide 75.73 = JPY/AUD 0.01320480

AUD/JPY exchange rate is found by USD/JPY X AUD/USD

AUD/CHF 1 divide current 0.6538 = CHF/AUD 1.5295

AUD/CHF exchange rate is found by AUD/USD v USD/CHF

AUD/CAD 1 divide current 0.9566 = CAD/AUD 1.0453

AUD/CAD exchange rate is found by AUD/USD X USD/CAD

AUD/NZD 1 divide current 1.0799 = NZD/AUD 0.9260

AUD/NZD exchange rate is found by AUD/USD divide NZD/USD

NZD/AUD exchange rate is found by AUD/USD divide NZD/USD

NZD

NZD/USD 1 divide current 0.6605 = USD/NZD 1.5140

NZD/JPY 1 divide current 70.08 = JPY/NZD 0.01426940

Or 1 divide 0.7008 = JPY/NZD 1.4269

NZD/JPY exchange rate is found by NZD/USD X USD/JPY

NZD/CHF 1 divide current 0.6051 = CHF/NZD 1.6526.

NZD/CHF exchange rate is found by NZD/USD X USD/CHF

NZD/CAD 1 divide current 0.8855 = CAD/NZD 1.1293

NZD/CAD exchange rate is dound by NZD/USD X USD/CAD

CAD

USD/CAD 1 divide current 1.3405 = CAD/USD 0.7459

USD/CAD exchange rate is found by 1 divide CAD/USD

CAD/CHF 1 divide current 0.6829 = CHF/CAD 1.4643

CAD/CHF exchange rate is found by USD/CHF divide USD/CAD

CHF/CAD exchange rate is found by USD/CAD divide USD/CHF

CAD/JPY 1 divide current 79.11 = JPY/CAD 0.01264062

Or

1 divide 0.7911 = 1.264062697

CAD/JPY exchange rate is found by USD/JPY divide USD/CAD

JPY/CAD exchange rate is found by USD/CAD divide USD/JPY

CHF

USD/CHF 1 divide current 0.9151 = CHF/USD 1.0927

CHF/USD 1 divide 1.0927 = USD/CHF 0.9151

CHF/JPY 1 divide current 115.96 = JPY/CHF 0.0086236

CHF/JPY exchange rate is found by USD/JPY divide USD/CHF

JPY/CHF exchange rate is found by USD/CHF divide USD/JPY

JPY

USD/JPY 1 divide current 106.11 = JPY/USD 0.00942418

JPY/USD 1 divide current 0.00942418 = USD/JPY 106.11

 

Brian Twomey

The Louvre Accord: The Fight Against U.S. Dollar Deflation By Brian Twomey

To understand the purpose of these accords, the prior 1985 Plaza Accord must be understood in terms of allowing the dollar to slide 20% against the Japanese yen, 15% against the French franc and 15% against the German Deutsch mark. All the G-6 nations feared Inflation and the ability to sustain five years of constant economic growth since 1982.
With two years of dollar depreciation agreed to in 1985 with the Plaza Accord, the United States was sustaining huge twin deficits in its domestic and Current Account budgets. In 1986, the trade deficit rose to approximately $166 billion with exports at about $370 billion and imports at about $520 billion.
The Trade Deficit alone approached approximately 3.5% of the GDP while the Japanese had a surplus of 4.5% and the Germans 4% of the GDP. Not only were foreigners tired of financing U.S. trade by purchasing United States Treasury bonds and importing inflation into their own nations, but Democrats gained control of Congress in 1986 and called for Protectionist measures. (To learn about the Plaza Accord, check out The Plaza Accord: The World Intervenes In Currency Markets.)

What separated the Plaza Accord from the Louvre Accord was that the Plaza Accord was a trade agreement, one that would be reached by the realignment of currencies to satisfy acceptable levels of trade for all nations.
The United States went from surplus to deficit in two years. The U.S. complied, however, as the dollar index on the NYBOT fell from 130 to 123 in two months in 1985 and from 124 to 108 in 1986. These dollar levels proved to be unacceptable as twin deficits mounted in the United States and surpluses increased in Europe and Japan. The Louvre Agreement was convened to stop the slide of the dollar and achieve currency price stability among all industrialized nations.
What made the Louvre Accord such a historic document was its focus not only on realignments but on the coordination of macroeconomic fiscal and monetary policy for all nations.
France agreed to reduce its budget deficits by 1% of GDP and cut taxes by the same amount for corporations and individuals. Japan would reduce its trade surplus and cut interest rates. Great Britain would agree to reduce public expenditures and reduce taxes. Germany, the real object of this agreement because of its leading economic position in Europe, would agree to reduce public spending, cut taxes for individuals and corporations, and keep interest rates low. The United States would agree to reduce its fiscal 1988 deficit to 2.3% of GDP from an estimated 3.9% in 1987, reduce government spending by 1% in 1988 and keep interest rates low.

Combining fiscal and monetary policies, the accord was believed to be capable of stabilizing any imbalances in the system and allowing economic prosperity to move forward, provided that coordination remained the focus.

A second aspect of historical importance was the introduction of reference ranges for currency prices rather than exact price targets. This allowed a focus not on strict trading bands as outlined in the Plaza Accord but intervention if currency prices traded outside the reference range.

 

The Plaza Accord stated currency prices would stay within the upper and lower 2.5% trading band, an aspect of the agreement encouraged by the Europeans since the adoption of the European Monetary System in the ’70s. The new policy of the Louvre Accord would focus on coordinated policy consultations if the U.S. dollar appreciated or depreciated by 5% or more while violation of the 2.5% band could lead to voluntary mutual intervention.

A final aspect of the Louvre Accords was the focus on least developing nations, which followed the same policy as the Plaza Accords.

Due to a falling dollar over the prior two years, least developing nations were experiencing high commodity prices, high inflation, an inability to participate in the world trading system and rising debt owed to banks in the industrialized nations subject to these agreements. So again, a new agreement was needed to stabilize the system for least developing nations.

Stability was achieved for the first eight months of the Louvre Accord as the dollar traded on the NYBOT with an average price of 96 with a spike lower in April when President Reagan threatened Japan with 100% tariffs on imports. This was followed by a further spike lower in May when the fed funds rate was increased from 6.5-6.75%.

The real breakdown of the Louvre Accord would occur in October 1987, when the Germans increased short-term interest rates from 3.60 to 3.85 due to inflation fears. This forced the United States to raise its discount rate as the federal funds rate increased to 7%.

The increased rates forced the 30-year Treasury bond to peak to 10.25% and sent the U.S. stock market tumbling some 500 points. The dollar eventually traded down to 86 and far exceeded the reference range bands.

The Japanese and Great Britain would also see rate increases. By January 1989, the Germans had introduced a withholding tax on interest income so any chance of a rescue of the Louvre Accord had disappeared.

What the breakdown of the Louvre Accords gave the world was an absence of further agreements to fix exchange rates.

Instead, floating exchange rates would be governed by the market, rising and falling based on inflation and interest rates

Note. As far as I see, I don’t have a private record of this article. It was taken from a website nice enough to posit it. Its accurate and my writings.

Here’s the key. All past articles from investopedia are not in most original form. They add tags and references such as here’s the bottom line. I’m not sure about a total re arranging of the article to content but I don’t trust these people personally. All are affected and many others wrote great things way back when. Emmanuelle from Fxtrader magazine and Jayanthi from Stocks and Commodities magazine would never do this to all past content especially Stocks and Commodities as really great content exist from days long past.

Next i will post Bank research and who knows what else I will find.

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

Weekly Trades: GBPUSD and EUR/CAD

GBP/USD

Last Week

Short 1.2802 or anywhere to target 1.2648.
Highs 1.3170. Last week open price 1.2790.

Long 1.2648 to target 1.2686.

Highs 1.3170. Last week open price 1.2790.
Off 368 pips. Close 1.3076, off 274 pips

This week

GBP/USD

Short anywhere or 1.3079 and 1.3088 to target 1.2723.

Short below 1.2704 to target 1.2554.

Long 1.2723 to target 1.2814

EUR/CAD

Last Week

Short 1.5678 and 1.5685 to target 1.5473

Highs 1.5977

off 292 pips. Close 1.5784, off 100 pips

This week

EUR/CAD

Short 1.5820 and 1.5850 to target 1.5460.

13 pip change to target.

Current records to the present model dates almost 4 years or 208 weeks of trades. Weekly trades began at 10 and 12 currency pairs and for the past 2 ish years, 18 weekly currency pairs trade.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD were not only clear leaders over the past 3 weeks to drive cross pairs but such wild prices hasn’t been seen in 208 weeks of trades. EUR/USD from high 1.1400’s to low 1.1500’s was done and an expected reverse experienced a 300 pip rise. GBP/USD likewise from overbought 1.2800’s decided to travel 300 pips higher.

Many years may pass until such wild prices are seen again. In non normal markets, 1 or maybe 2 currency pairs are misaligned or possibly an entire set of currencies such as all GBP or all EUR. GBP and Brexit February 2019 was the last time all GBP went ballistic.

GBP/CAD and EUR/GBP for example are problem currency pairs. But these factors are known in advance and offers clear warning to stand clear. USD/JPY and USD/CHF are never favored trades. Gold is a problem since overbought 1500’s and now 1900’s. We stand clear. Gold may travel higher, we stand clear until a normal trade exists.

In the meantime, we add 1 lot and trade to target or trade the new weekly trade to target which is at last week;s entry and that means no losses.

 

Brian Twomey

Brian Twomey Past Articles: Now Posted

Written trade- related feature articles, market commentary and posted trades began somewhere in 2006 and 2007 in Stocks and Commodities, Working Money, Investopedia, Thomson Reuters and many other sites.

Later by 2011, trades, features and commentary posted to Fxstreet dot net and dot com and investing dot com. The Thomson Reuters articles were few and mainly passed off to analysts covering the specific currency. Further to Thomson Reuters are my trades with Peter Wadkins and Johathan Clake of Cycle Guru fame. Which is actually FX Concepts.

Roughly 40 and 60 mentions and trades are posted by Peter from 2012 to 2014 ish. Not yet posted nor do I know if they should post due to the amount.

Since this current site is my main avenue of communication, I retrieved many past articles to retain on site as all articles are assorted throughout many websites. And due to the abundance of new information, past articles are buried.

Many, many past articles are still located at Stocks and Commodities and Working Money and I don’t know yet how nor if those articles can be retrieved.

I stopped my current article search in 2014 with 6 years more to go and still not considered Stocks and Commodities and Working Money.

I wish also to post years upon years of currency and market research with the idea I may assist others along their current journey. Never before posted and deeply researched math formulas, deep dive into Fibonacci, trade methods that work and those that don’t. The list and topics are long and endless.

Quick examples. Interquartile Range. Take 1.34896 X SD then divide the range by 1.34896. Inflation factors to the Output Gap but also to its relationship to Money Supplies, Interest rates and GDP. Moments of the distribution where Skew is worthless. John McGinley spoke to moving averages , prices and retention of prices to moving average lines. Take Average X SD = Slope. keep it simple.

I also retained and wish to post just absolutely beautiful bank FX commentary and analysis from days of old. Long gone are these days to see such excellent and dead on track analysis.

Long gone are the brilliant commentaries from Peter as Thomson Reuters switched methodologies from brilliantly written commentaries and analysis to quick market bullet points. To write for Thomson Reuters and even consideration to a job, one must have minimum 10 years FX Bank Dealer experience. This means ACI Certification is required. Otherwise, forget it.

Astounding to view past writings from Banks, Thomson Reuters even from myself to what passes today as analysis and commentary is truly worthless information and non actionable analysis. The breakdown has lasted at least 10 years and has grown worse by the year.

As analysis dwindled, the greats of FX disappeared into the woodwork and replaced with zero analysis and entry and exit = profits. Even the banks fell prey to entry and exit = profit. No commentary, analysis nor methodology break down, just enter and exit = profits. And many have failed this mission but most haven’t even tried to master trades nor to find interest in the things that make FX work and move.

So I will be posting stuff, all kinds of stuff to retain on my site. I suspect little interest but that;’s okay with me as I write and post my own interests. And I wish for my 16 years to be found in one location.

Articles posted

Australia Money Supply and Interest Rates. Australia doesn’t have Bank Maintenance Periods but uses the overnight rate as vital to its banking system.

Maintenance Periods and Money Supply: Europe, United States and Japan. Written for the European Banking Federation newsletter.

Fx Points, Spot Effect and Hedging by Peter Wadkins. FX Points, what a topic and should be known by every FX trader today but its not known.

Continuing Claims History

Market Technicians Association

National Futures Association. Is a guy truly a money manager then the NFA knows by Certifications.

Taylor Rule

McGinley Dynamic and Moving Averages

Gauss and the Bell Curve

New Zealand Central Bank and History

International Fisher Effect

T Bill Auction History

Commodity Cycles

Treasury International Capital: Tic Data History

International Monetary Market

Debt Monetization

Japanese Keiretsu and Zaipatsu

McGinley Dynamic part 2.

Australia Vs United States Tax treaty. Never published. Without Treaty, currencies can’t trade

Kairi Relative Index: Similar to RSI, not much difference yet a comparison.

Plaza Accords

Smithsonian Agreement.

Louvre Accords. Soon to post

Coinage History in the United States

Primer on Cross Currency Triangulation

Cross Currency Coefficients

UK Tax Implications Vs United States for Currency Traders

Fifo to Lifo Rules 2009. Market turning point as we switched from buying and selling lots to spreads

Big Mac Index

Currency Chart Congestion Counts

Forward vs Spot Rates

Ichimoku Trading Indicator

 

Brian Twomey