Weekly Trade Criteria, Same and Opposite Currencies

Same Currency Pairs and same trades: EUR/USD and EUR/JPY, GBP/USD and GBP/JPY, AUD/USD and AUD/JPY, NZD/USD and NZD/JPY. For JPY was designed as attachment pairs to main USD Vs Non USD for viability rather than a range issue.


Normally USD/JPY and CHF/JPY are same pairs and same trades however not running together currently nor has been running correctly for months. Could be Correlation issue but a Correlation is unitless as its a number that floats positive and negative between currency prices. Underlying issue to correlations is difference between most vital moving averages. One pair may trade above while another trades below or one price may be correct but another not correct yet trade above or below averages.


An investigation to averages will reveal the answer.


Same pairs: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CHF. NZD/USD, NZD/JPY, NZD/CHF, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF.


One problem to any currency pair in the 3 pair mix above then price problems will be seen.


Same Pairs: EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD Vs EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD. For EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD connects high range vs low range currencies as EUR/USD and NZD/USD and GBP/USD and NZD/USD. GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD are widest range currency pairs among 28. Next set to wide ranges is EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD.


AUD/NZD is pretty much the same pair and same trade as AUD/CAD for AUD/NZD price is the same as AUD/CAD only opposite.


EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD, AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD may or may not add to the above 3 currency pair same trade mix above. Currently, all are not running correctly.
Same trades for the universe of 4 is when all run perfectly together.


Opposite: USD/CAD and CAD/JPY. Same trades: USD/CAD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF.


Problem Pair criteria: Inner price statistics. Range issues. Low range is problem. Noise ratio Vs Coefficient variation. GBP/CAD problem for months. Noise ratio current 296.96 vs variation 0.3367. Or better stated price Signal to price Noise. Big problem to GBP/CAD and others. If 1 category is affected then all are problems. EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD are problems currently.


Problem pairs are subject to price swings and don’t follow perfectly price paths. Old days of trading this point was far more significant than today as ranges for all currency pairs died.


Problem pairs: Trading higher into overbought or lower into oversold. GBP/CAD meets all criteria for many months and EUR/CAD just entered the mix.
Never trade problem pairs.

Weekly Trade criteria: Price Location. Price Location to moving averages. Entries are secondary to targets. Entry to target question: Easy trade, how many pips, is universe operating correctly. Overbought Vs oversold however this point is fairly mute in this new day of trading. Ranges.

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD Vs EUR/USD Weekly Trade

EURUSD Weekly Trade As Posted

Short 1.1891 and 1.1902 to target 1.1739

Highs 1.1893, Lows 1.1815

Trade Rans +83 pips

GBPUSD Weekly Trade As Posted

Short 1.32222 and 1.3243 to target 1.3031

Highs 1.3242, Lows 1.3165

trade Rans +77 pips

Why GBP is the skitzo currency among all 24 pairs must compare to EUR/USD.

EUR/USD weekly short point was 1.1893. EUR/USD Bounced from 1.1815 but note EUR/USD never touched the weekly short point at 1.1893. Twice EUR/USD hit 1.1890 then dropped but never hit nor surpassed 1.1893. EUR/USD hot 1.1881 then dropped. This is a typical short or long trade for all currency pairs except GBP. The short or long weekly point never again touches during the week. Three shorts existed for a few pips from 1,1881 and twice at 1.1890.

GBP/USD on the other side of the equation offered 77 pips then bounced but bounced to 1.3300’s and far surpassed our weekly short points at 1.3222 and 1.3243. GBP/USD and cross pairs are the only currencies to surpass a weekly long or short point. Doesn’t happen often but it happens and this is what makes GBP a skitzo currency and sometimes dangerous.

Here’s the weekly points to 1.3031 target. Must cross 1.3201, 1.3180, 1.3159, 1.3138. GBP/USD dead stopped at 1.3165 then bounced.

Points below and solid on Monday was the 5 year average at 1.3120 then 1.3167 and the weekly break point at 1.2996. GBP/USD broke 1.3167 and dead stopped 2 pips below at 1.3165. Pretty nasty fake out.

So despite higher to 1.3300’s, GBP traded to 1.3194 lows again.

Brian Twomey

18 Weekly Trade Update

GBPJPY Weekly Trade As Posted.

Short 138.18 and 138.31 to target 136.99

Highs 138.86, Lows 137.19

trade Runs from 138.31 +112 pips From 138.86 +167 pips

CADJPY Weekly Trade As Posted

Short 80.19 and 80.33 to target 79.76

Highs 80.33, Lows 79.76 Perfect Target

trade Runs +57 pips

2ng Leg

Short below 79.62 to target 78.92

Highs 79.62, Lows 79.22

Trade Runs +40 pips

2 Trades +97 pips

AUDCHF Weekly Trade As Posted

Short anywhere or 0.6647 and 0.66 4 to target 0.6571

Highs 0.6687, Lows 0.6629 Trade Runs from 66 4 +35 pips

This Pair AUDUSD problem to lower

AUDUSD Weekly Trade As Posted

Short 0.7301 and 0.7318 to target 0.7163

Highs 0.7338, Lows 0.7274

Trade Runs +44 pips

Long way to target

AUDJPY Weekly Trade As posted

Short 76.44 and 76.47 to target 75.38.

Highs 76.76, Lows 75.59

21 pips to target

trade Runs from 76.47 +88 pips

EURJPY Weekly Trade As posted

Short 124.22 and 124.34 to target 123.49

Highs 124.42, Lows 123.49

target Complete

Trade Runs +85 pips

2ng Leg Short 123.24 to target 122.51

Lows 122.84 trade Runs +40 pips

2 Trades +125 pips

EURUSD Weekly Trade As Posted

Short 1.1891 and 1.1902 to target 1.1739

Highs 1.1893, Lows 1.1831

Trade Runs +62 pips

GBPAUD Weekly trade As Posted

Long 1.8083 and 1.8065 to arget 1.8193.

Lows 1.7987, Highs 1.8217

Target complete

+152 pip from 1.8065

2nd Leg

Short 1.8193 to target 1.8121

Lows 1.8119

target Complete

Trade Runs +74 Pips

2 trades + 226 pips

EURNZD Weekly Trade As Posted

Long anywhere or 1.7249 and 1.7232 to target 1.7516

Lows 1.7144, Highs 1.7271

Miss Entry 88 pips

trade add 1 lot then +127 pips Or from 1.7232 +49 pips

USDCAD Weekly Trade As Posted

Long 1.3065 and 1.3044 to target 1.3206

Lows 1.3064, Highs 1.3115

Perfect Entry

Trade Runs +51 pips

GBPNZD Weekly Trade As Posted

Long Anywhere or 1.9242 and 1.9221 to target 1.9457

Lows 1.9135, Highs 1.9275

Weekly Range 1.9090 – 1.9275

GBPCHF Weekly Trade as Posted

Short anywhere or 1.2049 and 1.2064 to target 1.1944

Highs 1.2076, Lows 1.2030

Trade Runs +34 pips from 64

Re Short In Effect

Weekly Range 1.2122 -1.1994

GBPCAD. Weekly trade as Posted

Short anywhere or 1.7342 to target 1.7194

Highs 1.7341, Lows 1.7218

Perfect Entry

Trade Runs +123 pips

GBPUSD Weekly Trade As Posted

Short 1.32222 and 1.3243 to target 1.3031

Highs 1.3242, Lows 1.3165

trade Runs +77 pips

GBP/USD then bolted to 1.3309

Re Short again, target remains

NZD/USD Weekly Trade As posted

 Short 0.6857 and 0.6875 to target 0.6707

Highs 0.6943, Lows 0.6881

At Breakeven Or Trade to Target

NZD/JPY Weekly Trade As Posted

Short 71.74 and 71.84 to target 70.54

Highs 72.10, Lows 71.51

Trade Runs from 71.84, +33 Pips and from 72.10 + 59 pips

NZD/CHF Weekly Trade As Posted

Short Anywhere or 0.6255 and 0.6265 to target 0.6139

Highs 0.6322, Lows 0.6254

18 Trades and from original Posted Entries +1215 Pips

Few missed entries this week and re shorts working as I write

Brian Twomey

For trades brian@btwomey.com

18 weekly Trades

Preliminary Results to 18 weekly trades posted. Posted only for exclusive viewers rather than public consumption. Trade and Results.

EUR/USD


Short 1.1891 and 1.1902 to target 1.1739
Short 1.1697 to target 1.1581
Long 1.1581 to target 1.1639.
Long 1.1739 to target 1.1814

Highs 1.1893, Lows 1.1851

Trade Runs + 40 Pips.

GBP/USD

 Short 1.32222 and 1.3243 to target 1.3031.

1st Weekly trade entry

Highs 1.3242, Lows 1.3165

Trade Ran +77 Pips

Then GBP trades to 1.3297 Highs

2nd short anywhere and same target 1.3031

GBP/JPY

Short 138.18 and 138.31 to target 136.99

Highs 138.86, Lows 137.79

trade Runs from 138.31 +52 pips From 138.86 +107 pips

GBP/CAD


Short anywhere or 1.7342 to target 1.7194

Highs 1.7341, Lows 1.7218

trade Runs +123 Pips

Then bolted to 1.7384

Round 2 shorts to short anywhere

GBP/CHF

Short anywhere or 1.2049 and 1.2064 to target 1.1944

Highs 1.2076, Lows 1.2030

Trade Runs +34 pips from 64

GBP/CHF then traded to 1.2107 Highs

Short again anywhere

GBP/AUD

Long 1.8083 and 1.8065 to #arget 1.8193.

Lows 1.7987, Highs 1.8217

Target complete +152 pip from 1.8065

2nd Leg

Short 1.8193 to target 1.8121

Lows 1.8133

Trade Runs +60 Pips and two trade + 212 pips

GBP/NZD

Long Anywhere or 1.9242 and 1.9221 to target 1.9457

Lows 1.9094, Highs 1.9276

Trade Runs +55 pips from 1.9221

Add 1 lot then +182 pips

USD/CAD

 Long 1.3065 and 1.3044 to target 1.3206

Tuesday Lows 1.3064, Highs 1.3116

Trade Runs +52 pips

CAD/JPY

 Short 80.19 and 80.33 to target 79.76

Highs 80.33, Lows 79.76 Perfect

trade Runs +57 pips

2ng Leg

Short below 79.62 to target 78.92

Highs 79.62, Lows 79.32

Trade Runs +25 pips

2 Trades +82 pips

AUD/JPY

Short 76.44 and 76.47 to target 75.38.

Highs 76.76, Lows 75.68

trade Runs from 76.44 +108 Pips

2nd Leg

long 75.38 to target 75.91

Not in effect

EUR/JPY

Short 124.22 and 124.34 to target 123.49

Highs 124.42, Lows 123.49

Trade Ran +85 pips from 124.34

2nd Leg

Short 123.24 to target 122.51

Trade Not in effect yet

EUR/AUD

 Long 1.6253 and 1.6237 to target 1.6384.

Lows 1.6176, Highs 1.6304

Trade runs from 1.6237 +67 Pips

EUR/NZD

Long anywhere or 1.7249 and 1.7232 to target 1.7516

Lows 1.7145, Highs 1.7271

Add 1 lot or +39 pips

Waiting on AUD and NZD

Brian Twomey

Currency Pairs and 5 Year Averages

Current 5 year averages is where all trading takes place. Its an unhealthy situation as currency prices lack continuity, lack USD Vs NON and cross pair agreement.


EUR/USD 5 year 1.1325 and 10 year 1.2139 and EUR/USD trades above 5 year
EUR/JPY 5 year 124.39 and 10 = 123.67 and currently trades above 123.67
EUR/CHF 5 year 1.1079 and problem currency, trades below


EUR/CAD 5 year 1.4927, Trades above and problem currency
EUR/NZD 5 year 1.6657, 14 year 1.7513
EUR/AUD 5 year 1.5583, trades above
EUR/GBP 5 year 0.8648, trades above


Above EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, EUR/GBP. Below EUR/CHF.


Do or die situation and to add only main pairs EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF, we have EUR/USD above, EUR/CHF below and EUR/JPY without a clue.


GBP


GBP/USD 5 year 1.3121, trades above
GBP/JPY 5 year 144.26, trades below
GBP/CHF 5 year 1.2843, trades below


GBP/CAD 5 year 1.7302, trades below
GBP/NZD 1.9300, trades below
GBP/AUD 5 year 1.8052, 10 year 1.8495


Above GBP/USD and 4 below to exclude GBP/AUD. For GBP/USD lacks agreement. Its must trade lower or all cross pairs must follow and trade higher.


AUD


AUD/USD 5 year 0.7284
AUD/JPY 5 year 80.04, trades below
AUD/CHF 5 year 0.7129, trades below


AUD/CAD 5 year 0.9597, trades below
AUD/NZD 5 year 1.0692, trades below


Above AUD/USD and 4 below
Except AUD/USD we have agreement. If AUD/USD and top pair to the universe AUDCAD then AUD/NZD trade above 5 year averages then remaining pairs must follow. If AUD/USD and AUD/CAD break below then lower for remainder cross pairs.

        NZD

NZD/USD 5 year 0.6812, trades above
NZD/JPY 5 year 74.83, trades below
NZD/CHF 5 year 0.6657, trades below
NZD/CAD 5 year 0.8977, trades below


Above NZD/USD, Below 3 pairs below


Except NZD/USD we have agreement. If NZD/USD and top pair to the universe NZD/CAD trade above 5 year averages then remaining pairs must follow.


CAD


USD/CAD 5 year 1.3191, trades below
CAD/JPY 5 year 83.36, trades below
CAD/CHF 5 year 0.7426, trades below


USD


USD/JPY 5 year 109.88, 10 year 102.80
USD/CHF 10 year 0.9522 and 5 year 0.9789, trades below
CHF/JPY 5 year 112.27, trades above


USD/JPY and CHF/JPY are exact same pairs and an 800 ish pip separation. The relationship isn’t correct. Either CHF/JPY trades lower or USD/JPY must trade higher.


Break it down, Break it down


JPY Cross Pairs


GBP/JPY 5 year 144.26, trades below
AUD/JPY 5 year 80.04, trades below
NZD/JPY 5 year 74.83, trades below
CAD/JPY Trades below
EUR/JPY No clue


Vs


EUR/USD above 5 year
GBP/USD above 5 year
AUD/USD above
NZD/USD above


JPY cross pairs to trade correct must trade in sync to Non USD pairs. Note GBP/USD above and GBP/JPY below. Same for AUD/USD and AUD/JPY, NZD/USD and NZD/JPY. Unhealthy situation here.


Result to JPY cross pairs was range compression over last 4 weeks. Either JPY cross pairs trade miles higher or EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD must trade miles lower.


CHF


EUR/CHF below
GBP/CHF below
AUD/CHF below
NZD/CHF below


We have agreement yet last 4 weeks we’ve seen range compression and off kilter to EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD. A problem category


Other Pair/ CAD


EUR/CAD above
GBP/CAD below
AUD/CAD below with caution
NZD/CAD below with caution


EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD are problem currencies and suffered range compression over last 4 weeks. Suffers from range compression today. GBP.CAD and EUR/CAD lacj agreement to EUR/USD and GBP/USD while NZD/CAD and AUD/CAD are trying to understand their proper position.


GBP/NZD 1.9300, trades below
EUR/NZD 5 year 1.6657, 14 year 1.7513


GBP/NZD is the better pair to trade yet GBP/NZD lacks agreement to GBP/USD and NZD/USD. Same situation for EUR/NZD. Both range compression last 4 weeks. EUR/NZD was hit hardest.


What is traded today is dangerous and unhealthy markets not only due to 5 year averages but cross pairs lack uniformity. We require either a big move to rightsize or we live in slow grinds, no range and unhealthy markets.

Brian Twomey

Weekly Trades: EUR/USD and NZD/USD

EUR/USD


Short 1.1891 and 1.1902 to target 1.1739
Short 1.1697 to target 1.1581
Long 1.1581 to target 1.1639.
Long 1.1739 to target 1.1814


NZD/USD


Short 0.6857 and 0.6875 to target 0.6707
Short below 0.66 3 to target 0.6557
Long 0.6557 to target 0.6610.
Long 0.6707 to target 0.6769.

Brian Twomey

Dear all, new contact briantwomey1@yahoo.com

Unless I figure how to operate microsoft e mail on my old blog.

I tell you all, between this computer that is becoming harder and harder to operate and the gagillions of crooked trade services operating these days, I’m slowly being blocked out of contention. Every body seems to have something to sell these days and they can operate this computer far better than me. Que sera sera as they say.

Brian Twomey Contact Information

Dear Friends,

My blog switched to Microsoft for e mail and I can’t operate it so here’s new contact

briantwomey1@yahoo.com

Subscribers please send an e mail to receive daily trades this evening

Much easier to operate

Brian Twomey

Missed Entries and Targets

Here’s the question. Are USD and Non USD currencies in sync to cross pairs in their universe. The answer depends to the time period and prices. As we’ve seen over the past 4 and 5 weeks, USD Vs Non were off kilter to cross pairs. Now cross pairs are in sync again.

But does this situation mean compatibility remains. Maybe.

In other market times, cross pairs are the drivers to USD and NON

From February 2019 to July and the last time I fully recorded deeply 10 and 12 weekly trades, USD Vs Non and Cross pairs were perfectly in compliance. Trade entries and targets were perfect over the 5 months and many pips were earned.

To the question of trades going off course, important is a 2019 week when prices and trades went haywire was about once or twice every few months but the situation rectified quickly so the next week was back to normal. This must assume currency markets and prices were properly aligned. Ranges in 2019 were fairly wide so it was easier for prices to correct.

The vast majority of our weeks today remain good to entries, targets and profits. But I’ve seen a few extra weeks when prices went off course which means today didn’t match to the consistency of 2019 to once or twice every few months. Ranges today are far less than in 2019. Which hold the answer to off course predictability. Range compression to cross pairs over the past 4 weeks or so informed crazy prices were coming. And only cross pairs were affected and not USD Vs Non USD.

As currency pairs today are pretty much in accordance from USD to Non and cross pairs, its imperative to monitor ranges to determine if USD Vs Non will dominate cross pairs, or cross pairs dominate USD V Non or do USD Vs Non hold its current perfect balance to cross pairs.

The proper way to currency markets is USD V Non hold consistency to cross pair alignments. Off kilter occurs when the balance is skewed to USD V Non and cross pairs.

Brian Twomey

18 Weekly Trades

       Favored trades this week: EUR/USD, NZD/USD, NZD/JPY, NZD/CHF, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD, AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, AUD/CHF, USD/CAD, EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY.


EUR/USD. Break Point 1.1697, below targets 1.1581. Strategy. Short 1.1891 and 1.1902 to target 1.1739. Must cross 1.1872, 1.1853, 1.1834, 1.1815, 1.1796, 1.1777 and 1.1758.  Short 1.1697 to target 1.1581. Long 1.1581 to target 1.1639. Cautious long 1.1739 to target 1.1814. Long only strategy. 


NZD/USD. Break Point 0.66 3, below targets 0.6557.
Strategy. Short 0.6857 and 0.6875 to target 0.6707. Must cross 0.6840, 0.6823, 0.6806, 0.6789, 0.6772, 0.6755, 0.6738 and 0.6721. Short below 0.66 3 to target 0.6557. Long 0.6557 to target 0.6610. Cautious long 0.6707 to target 0.6769. Long only strategy. 


NZD/JPY. Break Point 70.20, below targets 69.37. 
Strategy. Short 71.74 and 71.84 to target 70.54. Must cross 71.60, 71.46, 71.32, 71.18, 71.04, 70.90, 70.76 and 70.62. Short below 70.20 to target 69.37. Long 69.37 to target 69.86. Cautious long 70.54 to target 71.02. Long only strategy.


NZD/CHF. Break Point 0.6118, below targets 0.6059.
Strategy. Short Anywhere or 0.6255 and 0.6265 to target 0.6139. Must cross 0.6236, 0.6217, 0.6198, 0.6179, 0.6160  and 0.6141. Short below 0.6118 to target 0.6059. Long 0.6059 to target 0.6090. Cautious long 0.6139 to target 0.6176. Long only strategy. 


EUR/NZD. Break Point 1.7561, above targets 1.7697. 
Strategy. Long anywhere or 1.7249 and 1.7232 to target 1.7516. Must cross 1.7271, 1.7293, 1.7315, 1.7337, 1.7359, 1.7381, 1.7403, 1.7425, 1.7447, 1.7469, 1.7491 and 1.7513. Long above 1.7561 to target 1.7697. Short 1.7697 to target 1.7629. Cautious short 1.7516 to target 1.7424. Weekly strategy.


EUR/AUD. Break Point 1.6416, above targets 1.6513. 
Strategy. Long 1.6253 and 1.6237 to target 1.6384. Must cross 1.6269, 1.6285, 1.6301, 1.6317, 1.6333, 1.6349, 1.6365 and 1.6381. Long above 1.6416 to target 1.6513. Short 1.6513 to target 1.6449. Cautious short 1.6384 to target 1.6318. Short only strategy. 


AUD/JPY. Break Point 75.11, below targets 74.30.
Strategy. Short 76.44 and 76.47 to target 75.38. Must cross 76.17, 75.90, 75.63  and 75.36. Short below 75.11 to target 74.30. Long 74.30 to target 74.85. Cautious long 75.38 to target 75.91. Long only strategy. 


AUD/USD. Break Point 0.7128, below targets 0.7024.
Strategy. Short 0.7301 and 0.7318 to target 0.7163. Must cross 0.7283, 0.7266, 0.7249, 0.7232, 0.7215, 0.7198, 0.7181 and 0.7164. Short below 0.7128 to target 0.7024. Long 0.7024 to target 0.7059. Cautious long 0.7163 to target 0.7231. Long only strategy. 


AUD/CHF. Break Point 0.6546, below targets 0.6496. 
Strategy. Short anywhere or 0.6647 and 0.66 4 to target 0.6571. Must cross 0.6631, 0.6615, 0.6599, 0.6583 and 0.6567. Short below 0.6546 to target 0.6496. Long 0.6546 to target 0.6529. Cautious long 0.6571 to target 0.6613. Long only strategy. 


USD/CAD. Break Point 1.3238, above targets 1.3368.
Strategy. Long 1.3065 and 1.3044 to target 1.3206. Must cross 1.3086, 1.3107, 1.3128, 1.3149, 1.3170 and 1.3191. Long above 1.3238 to target 1.3368. Short 1.3368 to target 1.3281. Cautious short 1.3206 to target 1.3108.Short only strategy. 


EUR/JPY. Break Point 123.24, below targets 122.51.
Strategy. Short 124.22 and 124.34 to target 123.49. Must cross 123.97, 123.72 and 123.59. Short below 123.24 to target 122.51. Must cross 122.99, 122.74 and 122.61. Long 122.51 to target 123.01. Cautious long 123.49 to target 123.97. Long only strategy. 


CAD/JPY. Break Point 79.62, below targets 78.92.
Strategy. Short 80.19 and 80.33 to target 79.76. Must cross 80.04 and  79.89. Short below 79.62 to target 78.92. Must cross 79.47, 79.32, 79.17 and 79.02. Long 78.92 to target 79.41. Cautious long 79.76 to target 80.19. Long only strategy. 


                   GBP


Favored trades this week: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD. 


GBP/USD. Break Point 1.2988, below targets 1.2860. 
Strategy. Short 1.32222 and 1.3243 to target 1.3031. Must cross 1.3201, 1.3180, 1.3159, 1.3138, 1.3117, 1.3096, 1.3075, 1.3054 and 1.3033. Short below 1.2988 to target 1.2860. Long 1.2860 to target 1.2946. cautious long 1.3031 to target 1.3115. Long only strategy. 


GBP/JPY. Break Point 136.86, below targets 135.79.
Strategy. Short 138.18 and 138.31 to target 136.99. Must cross 137.91, 137.64, 137.37 and 137.10. Short below 136.86 to target 135.79. Must cross 136.59, 136.32, 136.05 and 135.78. Long 135.78 to target 136.59. cautious long 136.99 to target 137.65. Long only strategy. 


GBP/CAD. Break Point 1.7188, below targets 1.7154. 
Strategy. Short anywhere or 1.7342 to target 1.7194. Must cross 1.7320, 1.7298, 1.7276, 1.7254, 1.7232 and 1.7210. Short below 1.7188 to target 1.7154. Long 1.7154 to target 1.7182. Cautious long 1.7194 to target 1.7211. 


GBP/CHF. Break Point 1.1929, below targets 1.1869.
Strategy. Short anywhere or 1.2049 and 1.2064 to target 1.1944. Must cross 1.2020, 1.1991, 1.1962 and 1.1948. Short below 1.1929 to target 1.1869. Long 1.1869 to target 1.1914. cautious long 1.1944 to target 1.1989. Long only strategy. 


GBP/NZD. Break Point 1.9501, above targets 1.9629.
Strategy. Long Anywhere or 1.9242 and 1.9221 to target 1.9457. Must cross 1.9263, 1.9284, 1.9305, 1.9326, 1.9347, 1.9368, 1.9389, 1.9410 and 1.9441. Long above 1.9501 to target 1.9629. Short 1.9629 to target 1.9543. Cautious short 1.9457 to target 1.9370. Weekly strategy. 


GBP/AUD. Break Point 1.8230, above targets 1.8341. 
Strategy. Long 1.8083 and 1.8065 to target 1.8193. Must cross 1.8101, 1.8119, 1.8137, 1.8155 and 1.8173. Long above 1.8230 to target 1.8341. Short 1.8341 to target 1.8267. Cautious short 1.8193 to target 1.8121. Weekly strategy.  

Brian Twomey

Favored Trades this Week

Not only do we trade perfectly 18 currency pairs per week, a hurdle nobody could match but trades are ranked from best to worst. EUR/USD retains top position over last about 4 or 5 weeks. Trades have been perfect as a result.

NZD/USD, NZD/JPY and NZD/CHF next are running on all cylinders together and this is positive when cross pairs run together. Also NZD is the bottom pair to 60+ currency pairs to include EM currencies. If NZD goes short, all 60+ pairs follow. No difference exists to EM and our 28 currencies except a name and number. NZD short or long means automatically EUR short.

EUR/NZD is next and this confirms NZD if another pair is required to trade assessment because all currency pairs are deeply related which means no differences.

EUR/AUD is next followed by AUD/JPY, AUD/USD and AUD/CHF. We’re dealing here with middle range currency pairs in the 28 pair lineup. AUD/JPY will lead AUD/USD and AUD/CHF while EUR/AUD is the confirmation pair.

AUD/USD like NZD is working on all cylinders and this is good. If AUD/USD for example or any AUD pair failed to work in unison then rankings go much lower. It means AUD pairs will fail to perform as expected for maximum pips.

USD/CAD is decent as usual every week as USD/CAD is a great currency pair but it never receives the attention it deserves. Decent trade this week but better trades above exist.

CAD/JPY is the confirmation pair to USD/CAD and this pair never contains any thrills. It closed this week at 79.62 and this is exactly at a most vital point. Means caution to USD/CAD and low ranking until we see a resolution.

EUR/JPY also closed on a vital point and I don’t like its position to begin the week and better JPY trades exist.

If the trades isn’t easy and doesn’t contain like 100 and 150 pips then why bother. Then comes the round trip trades as we trade up and down all week. We want easy and pips.

GBP is classified separately and for 2 reasons. GBP/USD and cross pairs contain skitzo natures built into GBP way back in 1967. Second, when GBP/USD traveled straight down every week from 1.2900’s to 1.1900’s and no correction, nor warning, I classified GBP separate from the pack. Took about 2 or 3 weeks to realize drop GBP from trade consideration every week until it rightsized.

GBP is a middle currency pair and AUD as middle currency is influenced by GBP. For historians, the AUD and GBP connection is located in AUD/GBP as Australia as AUD was pegged to AUD/GBP for 150 years until AUD achieved the free float in March 1983. Old connections never die just because we are in the so called free float.

GBP/USD and GBP/JPY receive top spots and that’s fairly common week to week because both drive and are influenced by GBP cross pairs.

GBP/CAD as never deserving any rank near the top because its a problem pair is next but only because its an easy trade and pips are guaranteed.

GBP/CHF is next and its the same old story week to week over many weeks as GBP/CAD. GBP/CHF is a problem pair but its an easy trade and pips are guaranteed. Yes Guaranteed.

GBP/NZD is next and its a great trade and this confirms top ranking to EUR/NZD. GBP/NZD could’ve classified easily above GBP/CAD and GBP/CHF but GBP/CAD and GBP/CHF pips are easy and guaranteed. We want easy trades and pips rather than wait for an entry and target.

GBP/AUD is low ranking due to its position, ease to trade, entry and profit pips. Slight concerning is GBP/AUD relation to EURAUD. For both we will probably suffer lower before long.

Rankings

Favored trades this week: EUR/USD, NZD/USD, NZD/JPY, NZD/CHF, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD, AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, AUD/CHF, USD/CAD, EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY

GBP

GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD

18 currency pairs and ability to call the market week after week. Why not more or all 24. The work I put into factoring weekly trades and many weekend hours is astounding. Remaining 6 pairs aren’t much to trade like AUD/NZD, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, USD/JPY, CAD/CHF and CHF/JPY. Plus its many more hours involved and the hours aren’t worth the possible pips. EM pairs as in PLN, RON, HUF, BRL are far better pairs and pay well. How about CHF/JPY 20% margin. Again not worth the effort.

Brian Twomey

Brian Twomey Trades

Dear friends

My record over the past 10 years speaks for itself as profitable and highly accurate to entries and targets beginning with the 2012 trades at fxstreet, trades with Peter at Thompson Reuters and posts here on my blog and fxstreet. View the trades and record and its obvious rather than accept my words here.

But let’s address facts as this is currency prices we’re dealing with here which means a trade or two along the way will become a problem. We’re trading 18 currencies per week here and up from 10 since about 2017. The vast majority of those trades and the record is posted here on site. Seen is profits and in many, many weeks perfection.

A week will now and then go haywire but that is part of trading. As shown in EUR/AUD this week and EUR/CAD long ago is the ability to understand trades and trading enough to repair the trade to breakeven and / or profitability. Show me others who can trade and have the same understanding as I do. None exists. Most would’ve bailed for losses.

But just as EUR/AUD missed entry by 173 pips, GBP/JPY earned 400 Pips, EUR/JPY earned 200 pips, GBP/CHF 300 and the story to profits goes on and on.

The 10 daily trades and traded twice daily require guidance due to times to trade, target points, entries, profits to trades. I guide traders interested in day trades but I also ask to not only read the guidance but watch the trades for 3 and 4 days to understand how currency prices operate in relation to day trades. And also to understand day trade benchmarks to weekly trades. Failure to understand day trades will result in many problem trades and possible losses.

I ensure profitability and take the responsibility deadly serious. I am not a trade service nor do I advertise as a service but I am a willing participant to assist traders interested in trades. And this I do because I know the many trade service abuses to traders and lost accounts.

I consider it a god send to have good people as friends and subscribers. Those good hearted people, sincere in their nature who just want profitable trades. These are the people I want if anyone decides to come on board.

But let’s face facts as well. I’ve had a few idiots who got past me and had a few bad trades. Luckily very few. Had I known they were idiots, I would’ve never accepted their money. This is life but don’t disappear then complain as this road doesn’t make money. They left with few bad trades and also took on daily trades without reading guidance, explanations nor had the patience to watch trades for a few days.

The whole key here is follow the script as written for weekly and daily trades and accounts will be just fine. This is exactly what the vast vast majority did and they are happy with accounts on this day. Same story in 2012, 2014 and on and on. Many remain with me over years due to profitability.

Money is made over time and accounts grow over time because we are trading percentages. We don’t look for the one big trade to become Warren buffet overnight but then again I’ve made money for people who thought they were Warren Buffet.

Brian Twomey

EUR/AUD and AUD/USD Trade Results

Compression to cross pair ranges as mentioned last 3 and 4 weeks was the result this week to not only break outs but excessive to prices. The EUR/AUD trade was no different as its price went off course and a rare day for this to happen. What off course meant was the intended price path went off entry by 173 pips.

Compression warned us the break out was coming and actually it was a good event because now all cross pairs are fairly back to normal and in sync to its USD vs non USD counterparts.

Never fear nor worry as I demonstrated how to fix this situation without a loss as no such concept exists to losses in trading. Last time I had to repair a trade was about 1 year ago when 2 EUR/CAD trades went off course to entry by 150 pips.

The first EUR/CAD trade was forced to add 1 lot 150 pips lower. EUR/CAD corrected itself and the exact trade offered hit target for 150 ish pips. Which meant the 1st trade that went off course profit was 150 ish pips and the 2nd lot profit was 300 ish pips. The 2nd EUR/CAD trade profited about 150ish pips on the 2nd lot and something like 40ish pips on the 1st lot. The trades are located here on site.

EUR/AUD was forced to add 1 lot and EUR/AUD traded 6 pips above entry. Add 1 lot profit was 173 pips and option exists to exit at break even or remain in the trade to target because the trade target remains and never changes week to week.

Only options on a rare trade to go off course and repair is add 1 lot then trade to breakeven and profit on the first lot. Or trade both lots to target. Or profit on the 2nd lot and exit the first lot at breakeven. Either way, no losses exists and no losses will ever exist.

When EUR/AUD went off course, entry to AUD/USD missed by 59 pips. Again rare day but no problem. Add 1 lot at 0.7339 then 100 pips profit exists, remain with the trade at entry then + 60 pips exits.

EUR/AUD went off course by 173 pips and AUD/USD by 59 pips means 59 X 3 or 177 pips.

EUR/AUD

Long Anywhere or 1.6336 and 1.6325 to target 1.6486

AUD/USD

Short anywhere or 0.7271 and 0.7284 to target 0.7122.

Please peruse my dear friend’s site for luxurious watches, rings and more. She’s a good girl, 10 year friend and honest

A Case Study in Carry Trade and Cross Pair Allegiance Switching, Pre and Post 2008

Author: Brian Twomey, Rock Hill, South Carolina United States,
Brian@btwomey.com


EUR/USD, USD/JPY and the position of EUR/JPY was investigated in this
paper using regression analysis with the overarching question where EUR/JPY
sits in relation to both pairs and its position in terms of a carry trade. What
was determined was EUR/JPY switches allegiance period to period. The carry
trade premise is to borrow a low interest rate currency and lend in a high
interest rate currency. The low interest rate currency becomes the fund
currency while the high interest rate currency becomes the investment. The
historical assumption promulgates as long as the condition of Uncovered
Interest Parity fails, actual carry trades may last for years as an interest rate
arbitrage until a possible shock hits the markets or until the disparity in
interest rates compresses to Covered Interest Parity whereby positions are
covered.


Keywords: Fx, Foreign Exchange, Carry Trades, Currency, Currency Trading,
EUR, EUR/JPY, USD, USD/JPY, EUR/USD


Literature Review
Historic rise of carry trades from the “currency wars” of the 1930’s and
settlement by the 1936 Tripartite Agreement to the Gold standard and then
overnight sensation of Euro Bonds and Eurodollars in the 1960’s is found in
minute detail in “Gold Wars, The Story of the World’s Monetary Crisis”,
(Weil and Davidson 1971). Eurodollars began the slow development in not


only interest rate markets and connection to carry trades with origination
and sales in London money markets but floating exchange rates in the
1970’s. The slow rise in interest rate markets and carry trades is seen in
Frenkel and Levich (1975) who found arbitrage opportunities were fleeting
due to transaction cost and this led to wide bands between and among
interest rates. Further, Frenkel and Levich also found neutral bands around
Interest Rate Parity to limit profit opportunities.


Fama’s contribution to the study of Efficient Markets (1970) and the
Forward Premium Puzzle (1984) led to 30 years of research in carry trades
and interest differentials, profit opportunities, returns and many other
respects. The combination of Efficient Markets, carry trades and interest rate
differentials is seen for example in Brunnermeier, Nagel and Pedersen
(2008) as carry trades were viewed in terms of the VIX. Quoted papers are
few as works range in a 40 year time span.


Data and Methodology


To understand the relative relationship and position of EUR/JPY in terms of
USD/JPY and EUR/USD, 5,532 exchange rates between weekly and monthly
closing Spot prices were documented for the pre-crisis period from 1/5/2000

  • 7/4/2008 and post crisis period from 7/4/2008 – 4/15/2014. A total of 12
    samples were observed separated by weekly and monthly time frames for
    each paired relationships. The year 2000 was chosen to yield consistency as
    it allowed one full year of Euro market trading from its January 1999
    introduction and because world central banks adopted interval meetings
    every six weeks. To further capture the true market price and accurate
    Simple Regression analysis, July 2008 was chosen as the start date posts 2008
    because market prices failed to reflect the housing crisis dilemma that
    occurred one month later in mid-August 2008.

  • For pre and post 2008, EUR/USD and USD/JPY were employed as
    the dependent variable and EUR/JPY as the independent variable. To
    understand a true cause and effect, EUR/USD as the dependent variable was
    positioned against USD/JPY as the independent variable for both pre and
    post 2008 periods, weekly and monthly. The research design assumption
    was EUR/USD or USD/JPY influences EUR/JPY but to guard against a false
    presupposition, EUR/USD was measured against USD/JPY to add validity, an

    insight and determine a possible positional balance against the sample
    statistics.

  • The US Dollar was chosen because it remains “on either side of
    every trade 87% post 2008 and 90% pre 2008″ based on the Bank of
    International Settlements Triennial Surveys 2001 – 2013. (BIS.org).
    The Euro maintains its status as the second most widely traded pair
    with a daily average turnover of 33% market share in 2013, 39% in 2010, 27%
    in 2007, 28% in 2004 and 30% in 2001, (Bis.org).

  • As the third most widely traded currency pair, the Japanese Yen
    experienced a 63% increase in daily turnover activity from 2010 – 2013 and a
    19% – 23.0% surge in USD/JPY. Historic Yen daily average turnover varied
    14% – 23% during the time period of 2001 – 2013. Currently, Yen daily average
    turnover remains at historic peaks.

  • EUR/JPY still maintains its historic 3% daily average turnover
    between 2001 and 2013 but increases in actual trading values in billions
    increased from 36 billion in 2001 to 147 billion in 2013. EUR/JPY still remains
    from 2001 – 2013 the most widely traded currency pair among all cross pairs
    in both daily average market share and turnover amounts, (Bis.org).

  • Results

  • EUR/USD vs EUR/JPY Correlations

  • For the time frame of 2000 – 2008, on a weekly basis EUR/USD and EUR/JPY
    not only shared a 0.93% correlation but a healthier and positive r squared
    covariance of 0.87%. Based on rho population parameters, the correlation
    and r squared values are significant throughout all samples.
    By 2008 – 2014, the weekly relationship completely reversed to a
    correlation of 0.60% and r squared of 0.36%. The EUR/USD between 2000 –
    2008 and monthly EUR/JPY experienced a correlation of 0.93% and r

  • squared of 0.87% while the monthly relationship between 2008 – 2014
    represented a reduced correlation of 0.57% and r squared of 0.32%.

  • USD/JPY Vs EUR/JPY Correlations

  • USD/JPY correlation for the weekly time frame between 2000 – 2008 was
    negative 0.11% and an R squared of 0.01% while the weekly period between

    2008 – 2014 turned positive with a 0.91% correlation and R squared of 0.83%.
    The monthly period between 2000 – 2008 provided confirmation as the
    correlation was negative 0.15% and R squared of 0.02% while 2008 – 2014
    again attained a positive correlation of 0.91% and R squared of 0.82%.

  • EUR/USD Vs USD/JPY Correlations

  • An interesting relationship developed between 2000 – 2008 as the weekly
    correlation revealed negative 0.45% and an R squared of 0.20% and
    confirmed significantly among all pairs pre-2008 the allegiance EUR/JPY
    shared exclusively with the EUR/USD. Between the 2008 – 2014 weekly
    periods, correlations turned positive at 0.22% and R squared of 0.05%. The
    monthly time frames confirms further the weekly scenario as the 2000 –
    2008 correlation revealed a connection of negative 0.48% and R squared of
    0.23% while the 2008 – 2014 period calculated a correlation of positive 0.18%
    and R squared of 0.03%.

  • Variation

  • As a consequence of R squared values, 13% unexplained variation between
    EUR/USD and EUR/JPY pre 2008 existed while post 2008 experienced 18%
    and 17% unexplained variation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. For
    EUR/USD and USD/JPY pre 2008, 80% of the weekly variation is
    unexplained while 77% variation is unexplained in the monthly time frame.
    Post 2008, 95% unexplained variation existed in the weekly time period and
    97% for the monthlies.

  • EUR/JPY Allegiance and RHO

  • A possible explanation why EUR/JPY transferred its allegiance from
    EUR/USD to USD/JPY is seen in rho as a measure of the correlation
    significance in the pre-2008 period. Correlations seen in rho for EUR/USD
    and EUR/JPY were approaching the upper limits of the 95% and 99%
    percentiles for the weekly and monthly periods.
    As a corollary, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY approached critical 95% and
    99% rho limits for both the weekly and monthly time frames. EUR/USD
    possibly saw its meridian against EUR/JPY and USD/JPY a possible base

    evidenced by rho therefore EUR/JPY was in a crucial position particularly
    when EUR/USD and USD/JPY shared essentially no relationship by
    unexplained variations in both pre and post 2008.

  • Fascinating is EUR/JPY not only chose its future relationship to
    USD/JPY post 2008 but the alliance came full circle as the dependence pre
    2008 was negative and now the correlation approaches upper Rho’s 95%
    confidence interval.

  • Covariance and EUR/JPY

  • Covariance as a measure of further strength of association directly related to
    the X, Y variables and expected values reveals a strong positive relationship
    between EUR/USD and EUR/JPY pre 2008 on the weekly and monthly time
  • periods. Conversely, USD/JPY and
    EUR/JPY pre 2008 factors a strong negative association. EUR/USD
    and USD/JPY also reveal a negative homogeneity but barely negative yet
    adverse enough to expose the substantial association EUR/USD shared with
    EUR/JPY.

  • By the post 2008 period, covariance values had completely reversed
    on the weekly and monthly time frames to reveal USD/JPY and EUR/JPY
    shared a vigorously positive alliance and EUR/USD and EUR/JPY revealed a
    barely positive relationship. As the relationship between EUR/USD and
    USD/JPY was barely negative pre 2008, the post 2008 period now reveals a
    slight positive relationship.

  • As a strength of relationship variable to further define EUR/JPY
    positions within the EUR/USD and USD/JPY framework, covariance
    addresses first the question of joint distributions because the question is
    acknowledged by actual values and means symmetrically by the covariance
    formula: Sigma X,Y = Covariance ( X, Y) = E ( X minus Ux) ( Y minus Uy).

  • The magnitude of covariance is defined as how far X and Y vary
    symmetrically from their means as dependence rather than independence is
    sought in EUR/JPY terms. If X and Y were independent, both variables
    would assume zero correlation.

  • Covariance values are linear associations and intended to measure
    strength of covariation or strength of associations. Correlation is an
    inequality and unit less due to its +1, -1 measure but represents a measure of

    a sample to address questions of cause and effect, coincidences and sample
    co-variation.

  • If Correlation is defined as co-variation X, Y/ sigma X sigma Y then
    covariance defines correlational strength. By measuring X and Y minus
    means and obtaining positive deviate values, X and Y means are positive and
    co vary as was the case for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY pre 2008.
  • Covariance is
    found between the bounds of correlational +1 and -1. Essentially, covariation
    removes part of the variability of Y that co varies with X and focuses on the
    remainder sections: the Residual Variance.

  • What allowed EUR/JPY to assume a strong positive relationship
    with EUR/USD pre-2008 was USD/JPY had a negative covariance with
    EUR/USD; USD/JPY means were negative while both EUR/USD and
    EUR/JPY means were positive.
  • When the August 2008 Housing crisis was
    announced, means for EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY all dropped
    considerably but USD/JPY and EUR/JPY prices fell below respective means
    therefore a new covariance relationship formed as USD/JPY and EUR/JPY.

  • EUR/USD maintained a weak association with EUR/JPY because
    EUR/USD prices remained slightly above its mean and the aftermath was
    seen in lower correlation and R squared values.
  • Had EUR/USD prices fell
    below its respective mean, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY as a covariance and
    correlation relationship would have completely severed and melded into a
    complete paradigm shift among the three pairs because USD/JPY was below
    its complementary mean.
  • EUR/JPY choices at this juncture were either break
    above its mean and reattach to EUR/USD or assume a new relationship with
    USD/JPY. Instead, EUR/JPY shifted allegiance from EUR/USD to USD/JPY.

  • Carry Trade Crash Risks

  • Many studied the concept of Carry Trade crash risk. Brunnermeier, Nagel
    and Petersen (2008) reveal investment currencies are subject to crash risk
    due to funding constraints as it relates to the VIX, the implied volatility of
    the S & P 500. Burnside (2011) failed to classify the housing polemic as a
    crisis because his portfolio consisted of carry and momentum. If carry lost
    then momentum profited. Hutchison and Sushko (2013) look at carry trades
    and macroeconomic surprises as it relates to global risk.

    Residuals

  • Residual plots, defined as predicted y minus y are provided for both weekly
    and monthly time frames pre and post 2008. All plots display
    homoscedasticity, constant variances, non-linearity to response variables,
    and lack autocorrelation therefore all pairs contain the same variances.
    Residual means are zero, therefore slope and intercept lines are accurate.

  • EUR/JPY and Standard Errors

  • Standard Error Estimates inform EUR/JPY positional change pre 2008
    against USD/JPY as the weekly errors were 19.8 for the weekly and 20.8 for
    the monthly. Post 2008, errors reduced to a robust 6.3 for both the weekly
    and monthly periods. EUR/USD and EUR/JPY pre-2008 displayed a 7.2
    Standard Error and rose to 12.2 and 12.5 for the weekly and monthly time
    periods respectively for post-2008 data.
  • EUR/USD and USD/JPY shared a 6.5
    error pre-2008 for the weekly and monthly period but saw a slight rise post 2008 to 8.9 and 9.1 for the weekly and monthly data respectively. Standard
    error further informs a fairly constant relationship between EUR/USD and
    USD/JPY to allow EUR/JPY movements within the confines of EUR/USD and
    USD/JPY.

  • EUR/JPY and Interest Rates

  • If the carry trade in interest rate terms and EUR/JPY’s positional change is
    an assessment, Europe, Japan and the United States experienced reduced
    interest rates since year 2000. The United States Fed Funds rate March 2000
    was 6.50% and 5.75% for the Euro Refinance

  • Rate October 2000. The carry trade as USD/EUR was the opportune
    position until September 2007 when the Fed Funds rate fell to 4.75% and the
    Refinance Rate was 5.0% by July 2007.
  • EUR/USD became the new Carry
    trade post 2008 until both saw an equalized interest rate of 0.25% post 2008.
    Both USD/JPY and EUR/JPY worked as a carry trade pre and post 2008
    because Japan’s Base Rate, the Overnight Call Rate was 0.25% August 2000,
    0.00 March 2001 and 0.50% February 2007.
  • The Overnight Call Rate today is
    0.1% for post 2008. Gyntelberg and Remolona (2007) and many others
    identified the failure of the Uncovered Interest Parity condition in five year

    time horizons. August 2014 will be the sixth year approximately for the
    USD/JPY and EUR/JPY relationship.
  • A speculative assumption and topic
    specific to carry trade crash risk is EUR/USD and EUR/JPY began their
    association at the time of the 1997/ 1998 Asian financial crisis. The
    relationship was found in 2000 as research began. When and how long the
    relationship began is unknown.
  • What is known post-2008, EUR/JPY and
    USD/JPY relationship mirrors the exact position of EUR/JPY and EUR/USD
    before the crisis. The question of will a market crash occur to force a
    breakdown of the allegiance to see EUR/JPY switch loyalties again to
    EUR/USD is unknown, nor is it known if a market implosion is the essential
    element to experience a change.

  • Regression Slopes and Intercepts

  • EUR/USD and EUR/JPY revealed a positive slope and Y intercept pre 2008
    on both weekly and monthly time frames but post 2008, slopes steepened
    and intercepts turned negative for both the weekly and monthly periods.

  • The weekly rather than monthly period saw the most dramatic increase,
    131.23 vs 122.15 for the monthly and a 908 Pip difference.

  • Again the opposite effects occurred between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY
    pre-2008 as slopes were negative, yet barely, and intercepts positive. The
    monthly intercept revealed 179.27 and the weekly period 168.67, a 1060 pip
    difference.
  • As EUR/JPY left its EUR/USD loyalty post 2008, USD/JPY and
    EUR/JPY assumed a positive slope post 2008 during the weekly and monthly
    period and a negative intercept. EUR/USD and USD/JPY shared a negative
    slope and positive intercept pre-2008 and positive slope and intercept post
    2008.

  • In price movement terms, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY experienced a
    wholesale change in their renewed relationship pre to post 2008 as the slope
    line reversed from negative to positive.

  • To accommodate the change, EUR/USD and USD/JPY also
    experienced a wholesale change of slopes from negative pre-2008 to positive
    post-2008. The EUR/USD and EUR/JPY slope extended rather than dropped.

  • Despite steepness and changes of slopes, the slope definition is average
    amount of Y increases or decreases as a function of X. If error terms are
    random, normally distributed with positive and negative values then the

    assumption in any Regression model is E (e) = 0.
  • Therefore, the standard
    deviation of e represented as sigma xy remains constant over all values of X.
    With presence of Homoscedasticity, the supposition remains that E(y) = Y +
    BX.
  • The coefficients B and Y are average values however Y remains a
    constant and B the coefficient so to explain the variation of EUR/JPY as Y.

  • Slope, T test and EUR/JPY

  • To determine how different the slope of the Regression line is from 0, a t test
    on the B coefficients was determined by the equation B divided by SE and is
    distributed as a t-distribution to test the hypothesis that B = 0.
  • In all values
    of t measured in each paired instances, significance was observed and
    therefore rejected Ho.

  • Since t-values measure slopes and errors regard distance, EUR/JPY
    Vs EUR/USD pre-2008 calculated to a t value of 54.4 for the weekly and 26.6
    for the monthly and an error of 7.2 for both time frames. Post 2008, t-values
    decreased, errors increased and slopes remained positive for pre and post
  1. USD/JPY and EUR/JPY experienced negative t values, large errors and
    negative slopes pre 2008 but positive t values, small errors and positive
    slopes post-2008.

  2. EUR/USD and USD/JPY experienced negative t values, small errors
    and negative slopes for both the weekly and monthly periods pre 2008. Post
    2008, t values were positive, errors increased slightly and slopes were
    positive.

  3. Weekly Versus Monthly Values

  4. The vast majority of past carry trade research employed monthly values and
    dates its history to 1984 and Eugene Fama’s identification of the Forward
    Premium Puzzle. Weekly findings were consistent with monthly values in all
    technical analysis until large differences were recognized between monthly
    and weekly slopes and intercepts.

  5. Carry Trade Definition

  6. Carry trades are based on FX points per day, per month, per year and
    answers the question how many pips are earned to carry positions. The

    indispensable aspect is earn more points than is paid to derive
    compensation to offset price depreciation in a long currency pair position.

  7. The complexity of carry trades changed in 1994 when closing spot
    prices were marked to market therefore gains and losses were marked daily.

  8. Previously, FX points ran throughout the life of the contract term as traders
    earned the difference cumulatively without showing daily mark to market
    loses so carry trade positions were carried to maturity.
  9. Losses, risk/reward,
    crash risk is determined by the question is earnings in points enough to
    offset a currency price depreciation or an implosion that might strike the
    market.

  10. FX points calculate as closing spot price X interest differential
    divided by Day Count X spot lots or futures contracts.

  11. Findings suggest carry trades contain two distinct definitions. One
    is interest differential income and the other price appreciation. Both are
    based on the theory of expectation. The sine qua non is to define interest
    differential in terms of nominal versus real interest rates over time or in
    longer 20 – 50 year terms as a natural interest rate first identified as an
    equilibrium rate by Knut Wiksell (1898).

  12. Price appreciation / depreciation is then defined in terms of carry
    trade holding periods and length of time in trades. Essentially, an FX point is
    the interest differential and employed as predictor of future spot prices but
    it is defined as the cost to carry positions, formally as the Forward Discount.

  13. Currency risk is not found necessarily in the investment side of the long
    position to earn yield but the cost or borrow side may not continue to assist
    financing the long position. Uncovered Interest Parity equals Forward
    Discount equals Interest differential, same terms.

  14. EUR/JPY experienced temporary price and permanent interest rate
    depreciation pre to post 2008. The genesis of 2000 saw EUR/JPY paid 5.75%
    vs 0.50% pre 2008 vs 0.25% and 0.1% post 2008.
  15. Carry trade losses / gains in
    FX points are found by length of time in the position and income earnings
    pre vs post 2008. Possible losses were experienced from reduced
    disbursements post 2008 but were losses enough to offset pre-2008 gains.

  16. Current price trades in excess of returns pre and post 2008, 131.39 pre 2008
    and 121.30 post-2008.

  17. Excess returns calculates as r t + 1 = Spot price t + 1 divided by Spot t
    X (1 + Domestic interest rate) minus (1 + foreign interest). Gains / cost versus
    borrowing cost represented in equation 1 as gains and cost represented in

    equation 2 are known. Calculated to the future spot price is represented as F
    t + 1 = S t 1 + foreign Currency divided by 1 + Domestic currency. If interest
    parity holds as assumed then the future price equalizes to the spot price to
    earn excess returns.

  18. Carry Trade and EUR/JPY

  19. EUR/JPY is a currency pair whose position is found within the bounds
    between EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Since EUR/JPY is derived from EUR/USD
    and USD/JPY by USD subtraction, boundaries must hold residual constants
    or EUR/JPY transforms as a free floating financial instrument without a
    connection to EUR/USD or USD/JPY.
  20. While residual constants hold firm,
    EUR/JPY may change allegiance year to year, period to period or possibly
    crash to crash. An allegiance switch implies EUR/JPY boundaries range wide
    or small within EUR/USD or USD/JPY residual variances.

  21. The assumption EUR/JPY maintains a perfect 0.5 balance between
    EUR/USD and USD/JPY was not found however it does not imply a 0.5
    balance is not possible.
  22. Perfect balance further implies EUR/JPY lacks
    allegiance and is solely independent of EUR/USD or USD/JPY. An
    explanation to perfect balance is EUR/USD and USD/JPY ranges varied
    widely enough against each other and reached polar opposite extremes.

  23. Since EUR/USD and USD/JPY are completely opposite pairs whose
    relationship barely holds a statistical relationship, EUR/JPY is allowed to
    roam freely between both pairs. Findings suggest however EUR/JPY is
    influenced by either EUR/USD or USD/JPY but not both so a 0.5 balance

  24. may be fleeting instances along time horizons. Therefore, EUR/JPY is either
    EUR/USD or USD/JPY in co varying movements.

  25. The EUR/JPY carry trade is then defined further to include either
    EUR/USD or USD/JPY. To view EUR/JPY exclusively in carry trade terms
    fails the full comprehensiveness contained within carry trades.

  26. Money Supply and Economic Change

  27. A fundamental economic theory that caused EUR/JPY to change its status
    pre to post 2008 can be viewed in money supply terms rather than directly
    relate a wholesale EUR/JPY positional change to the announcement of the
    housing crisis polemic. Housing was the cause; the effect was central banks

    worldwide adopted Quantitative Easing stimulus spending through bond
    issuance. Known since John Maynard Keynes, interest rates share an adverse
    relationship to money supplies therefore interest rates since 2008
    continuously dropped for all nations as money was issued.
  28. Nations then
    experienced a Keynesian liquidity trap dilemma by nations spending enough
    monies to drop the interest rate to either zero or near zero. Low and interest
    rate uncertainty brings small price movement to EUR/JPY due to shrinkage
    of the interest differential.

  29. Quantitative Easing defined a wholesale economic change adopted
    by many nations as “Keynesian Economics” and “stimulus spending” from
    the previous 1980’s supply side practices.
  30. Keynesian economics is a focus on
    the demand side of an economy while its corollary is practice based on
    supply. Both define EUR/JPY as an economic insight, a price, a carry trade
    and currency pair alignment.

  31. Conclusions

  32. EUR/JPY and its position revealed an attachment to EUR/USD or USD/JPY
    occurred throughout a 15 year period post and pre 2008. The carry trade in
    EUR/JPY terms was revealed by entering 5,532 exchange rates weekly and
    monthly pre and post 2008. EUR/JPY as a carry trade is defined based on its
    attachment to either EUR/USD or USD/JPY but not both.
  33. The perfect
    EUR/JPY 0.5 balance between EUR/USD and USD/JPY was not seen
    although the possibility exists in fleeting instances along time horizons.
    Carry trades were further defined by FX points and revelations to carry trade
    interest rates, time and holding periods. A possible fundamental explanation
    why EUR/JPY changed loyalty from
    EUR/USD to USD/JPY was a result of governmental adoption of QE.

  34. If EUR/JPY had a chance to reinstitute its EUR/USD attachment, the drop in
    interest rates and Keynes liquidity trap for all nations appeared to fail under
    that occurrence.
  35. Results were assessed through 12 separate samples and a
    host of statistics for technical analysis. EUR/JPY loyalties and allegiance
    switches were seen in statistics in a step by step approach.

  36. Covariance was the preeminent statistic to see and understand how
    and why EUR/JPY transferred its loyalty from EUR/USD to USD/JPY.
  37. Slopes
    and regression lines was the pictorial result to understand how price
    traveled. The most pronounced regression lines were seen in USD/JPY and

    EUR/JPY pre and post 2008 due to a complete line reversal. The study
    encompassed three pairs yet its implications may lay the groundwork to
    other pairs and carry trade studies.

  38. References
    [1]. Brunnermeier, Markus K., Nagel, Stefan, Pedersen, Lasse H., 2008,
    “Carry Trades and Currency Crashes”, National Bureau of Economic
    [2]. Burnside, Craig, Eichenbaum, Martin, Rebelo, Sergio, 2011, “Carry
    Trade and Momentum in Currency Markets”. National Bureau of
    Economic Research, Working Paper 16942
    [3]. Fama, Eugene F., 1984, “Forward and Spot Exchange Rates”, Journal
    of Financial Economics.
    [4]. Fama, Eugene F., 1970, “Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of
    Theory and Empirical Work”, Journal of Finance
    [5]. Frenkel, Jacob A., Levich, Richard M., 1975, “Covered Interest
    Arbitrage: Unexplained Profits”, Journal of Political Economy
    [6]. Hutchison, Michael M., Sushko, Vladyslav, 2012, “Impact of
    Macroeconomic Surprises on Carry Trade Activity”, Journal of
    Banking and Finance.
    [7]. Triennal Central Bank Survey, 2013, “Foreign Exchange Turnover in
    April 2013: Preliminary Global Results, Monetary and Economic
    Department Bank of International Settlements.
    [8]. Weil, Gordon L, Davidson, Ian, 1971, “The Gold War: The Story of
    the World’s Monetary Crisis, Holt, Rinehart and Winston
    [9]. Wiksell, Knut, “Interest and Prices”, 1st Edition, London, Royal
    Economic Society, 1936.

Weekly Trades: AUD/USD and EUR/AUD

This week’s Currency market story is the same old tired saga as in past weeks. USD Vs Non USD dominates as preferred trades due to wide ranges and cross pair range compression remains.


Same story for JPY cross pairs as AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY lead the way for best ranges and trades and to replace GBP/JPY as the normal market leader to JPY. CAD/JPY as usual isn’t worth a click.


AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF are overbought and finally in agreement to AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Both AUD/USD and NZD/USD will see good moves this week as a result of cross pair compliance.


EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF however are oversold as EUR/USD and GBP/USD are overbought. What assists EUR/USD and GBP/USD downside is ranges for EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF are compressed which means not much higher will EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF travel. Required is EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF to drop in order for EUR/USD and GBP/USD to trade lower and relieve overbought conditions.


GBP/CAD for months and weeks remains a dead issue currency pair. GBP/CAD is oversold.
A positive aspect to this week’s trades are many of the 18 currency pairs traded every week are easy trades and will perform well.


Note to last week’s trades:


GBP/AUD achieved +181 pips in 2 trades.
EUR/JPY hit perfctly as written 123.06 then down to target for +111 pips.
USD/PLN achieved +900 ish pips
USD/HUF achieved +800 ish pips
USD/BRL achieved =2800 ish Pips
Total 4,792 pips


Easy trades this week is PLN, HUF and BRL higher as USD across the board in EM and our G28 USD pairs are deeply oversold.
As usual, all posted trades achieve targets, make good money and no trades went off course to fix a repair trade. Trades and consistency is unmatched week after week. Its all about the intended price path.


This week we’ll trade EUR/AUD and AUD/USD


AUD/USD
Short anywhere or 0.7271 and 0.7284 to target 0.7122.
Short below 0.7077 to target 0.6988
Long 0.6988 to target 0.7032
Long 0.7122 to target 0.7165


EUR/AUD


Long Anywhere or 1.6336 and 1.6325 to target 1.6486
Long above 1.6499 to target 1.6580
Short 1.6580 to target 1.6522
Short 1.6486 to target 1.6417

Interested in Trades contact brian@btwomey.com

Brian Twomey

Joe Biden and the Corrupt Bargain

A quote from a respected and honest Republican in 1869 South Carolina at a time the Republicans dominated by wide margins state houses, Congress and the presidency: “The Democrat Party is a very shrewd one, its leaders are veterans in political warfare.”

Democrat choices in 1860’s America was fight for political power by winning elections or disappear as an organization. Democrats fought and won back control of Southern states and congressional seats but it took 30 years from the 1860’s to 1890’s. Democrats then as today struck a corrupt bargain to victory at the expense of America.

Democrats first marginalized blacks as new voters by passage of the 15th amendment so then formed the KKK, manipulated ballots, threatened and even murdered voters and candidates for consideration of a vote for Republicans. Democrats gained victory by fear.

As Republicans lost the unsettled conservative/ Liberal Progressive ideological divide within the party in the 1912 election, Wilson and later Franklin Roosevelt by voter majorities won the presidency and offered a clear slate to adopt massive Progressive policies the likes of which hasn’t been seen in America.

Today’s Democrat Party power, intelligence and veterans of political warfare derives from Wilson and F. Roosevelt. It allowed the Democrats to become permanently far left on the ideological divide and Democrats believe they have the political right to impose progressive policies on America in a building block to F. Roosevelt and Wilson.

Roosevelt and Democrat passage of the Wagner Act in 1935 only added to Democrat power by legitimizing Unions. America’s workers by paying dues to Unions then goes to the Democrat Party. Democrats now have a slush fund to pay for elections.

The greatest of Democrat Unions are government employees so now as the more government grows and employs workers then the more money Democrats earn.

The Democrat concept gain power by any methods and even by corrupt bargains lives in the 2020 elections, learned and practiced from the 1860’s. The corruption, deceit and dishonesty now unfolding before an honest nation’s eyes is simply astounding.

Brian Twomey

Trump 2016 Inauguration Speech

Chief Justice Roberts, President Carter, President Clinton, President Bush, President Obama, fellow Americans, and people of the world: thank you.

We, the citizens of America, are now joined in a great national effort to rebuild our country and to restore its promise for all of our people.

Together, we will determine the course of America and the world for years to come.

We will face challenges. We will confront hardships. But we will get the job done.

Every four years, we gather on these steps to carry out the orderly and peaceful transfer of power, and we are grateful to President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama for their gracious aid throughout this transition. They have been magnificent.

Today’s ceremony, however, has very special meaning. Because today we are not merely transferring power from one Administration to another, or from one party to another – but we are transferring power from Washington, D.C. and giving it back to you, the American People.

For too long, a small group in our nation’s Capital has reaped the rewards of government while the people have borne the cost.

Washington flourished – but the people did not share in its wealth.

Politicians prospered – but the jobs left, and the factories closed.

The establishment protected itself, but not the citizens of our country.

Their victories have not been your victories; their triumphs have not been your triumphs; and while they celebrated in our nation’s Capital, there was little to celebrate for struggling families all across our land.

That all changes – starting right here, and right now, because this moment is your moment: it belongs to you.

It belongs to everyone gathered here today and everyone watching all across America.

This is your day. This is your celebration.

And this, the United States of America, is your country.

What truly matters is not which party controls our government, but whether our government is controlled by the people.

January 20th 2017, will be remembered as the day the people became the rulers of this nation again.

The forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer.

Everyone is listening to you now.

You came by the tens of millions to become part of a historic movement the likes of which the world has never seen before.

At the center of this movement is a crucial conviction: that a nation exists to serve its citizens.

Americans want great schools for their children, safe neighborhoods for their families, and good jobs for themselves.

These are the just and reasonable demands of a righteous public.

But for too many of our citizens, a different reality exists: Mothers and children trapped in poverty in our inner cities; rusted-out factories scattered like tombstones across the landscape of our nation; an education system, flush with cash, but which leaves our young and beautiful students deprived of knowledge; and the crime and gangs and drugs that have stolen too many lives and robbed our country of so much unrealized potential.

This American carnage stops right here and stops right now.

We are one nation – and their pain is our pain. Their dreams are our dreams; and their success will be our success. We share one heart, one home, and one glorious destiny.

The oath of office I take today is an oath of allegiance to all Americans.

For many decades, we’ve enriched foreign industry at the expense of American industry;

Subsidized the armies of other countries while allowing for the very sad depletion of our military;

We’ve defended other nation’s borders while refusing to defend our own;

And spent trillions of dollars overseas while America’s infrastructure has fallen into disrepair and decay.

We’ve made other countries rich while the wealth, strength, and confidence of our country has disappeared over the horizon.

One by one, the factories shuttered and left our shores, with not even a thought about the millions upon millions of American workers left behind.

The wealth of our middle class has been ripped from their homes and then redistributed across the entire world.

But that is the past. And now we are looking only to the future.

We assembled here today are issuing a new decree to be heard in every city, in every foreign capital, and in every hall of power.

From this day forward, a new vision will govern our land.

From this moment on, it’s going to be America First.

Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs, will be made to benefit American workers and American families.

We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies, and destroying our jobs. Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength.

I will fight for you with every breath in my body – and I will never, ever let you down.

America will start winning again, winning like never before.

We will bring back our jobs. We will bring back our borders. We will bring back our wealth. And we will bring back our dreams.

We will build new roads, and highways, and bridges, and airports, and tunnels, and railways all across our wonderful nation.

We will get our people off of welfare and back to work – rebuilding our country with American hands and American labor.

We will follow two simple rules: Buy American and Hire American.

We will seek friendship and goodwill with the nations of the world – but we do so with the understanding that it is the right of all nations to put their own interests first.

We do not seek to impose our way of life on anyone, but rather to let it shine as an example for everyone to follow.

We will reinforce old alliances and form new ones – and unite the civilized world against Radical Islamic Terrorism, which we will eradicate completely from the face of the Earth.

At the bedrock of our politics will be a total allegiance to the United States of America, and through our loyalty to our country, we will rediscover our loyalty to each other.

When you open your heart to patriotism, there is no room for prejudice.

The Bible tells us, “how good and pleasant it is when God’s people live together in unity.”

We must speak our minds openly, debate our disagreements honestly, but always pursue solidarity.

When America is united, America is totally unstoppable.

There should be no fear – we are protected, and we will always be protected.

We will be protected by the great men and women of our military and law enforcement and, most importantly, we are protected by God.

Finally, we must think big and dream even bigger.

In America, we understand that a nation is only living as long as it is striving.

We will no longer accept politicians who are all talk and no action – constantly complaining but never doing anything about it.

The time for empty talk is over.

Now arrives the hour of action.

Do not let anyone tell you it cannot be done. No challenge can match the heart and fight and spirit of America.

We will not fail. Our country will thrive and prosper again.

We stand at the birth of a new millennium, ready to unlock the mysteries of space, to free the Earth from the miseries of disease, and to harness the energies, industries and technologies of tomorrow.

A new national pride will stir our souls, lift our sights, and heal our divisions.

It is time to remember that old wisdom our soldiers will never forget: that whether we are black or brown or white, we all bleed the same red blood of patriots, we all enjoy the same glorious freedoms, and we all salute the same great American Flag.

And whether a child is born in the urban sprawl of Detroit or the windswept plains of Nebraska, they look up at the same night sky, they fill their heart with the same dreams, and they are infused with the breath of life by the same almighty Creator.

So to all Americans, in every city near and far, small and large, from mountain to mountain, and from ocean to ocean, hear these words:

You will never be ignored again.

Your voice, your hopes, and your dreams, will define our American destiny. And your courage and goodness and love will forever guide us along the way.

Together, We Will Make America Strong Again.

We Will Make America Wealthy Again.

We Will Make America Proud Again.

We Will Make America Safe Again.

And, Yes, Together, We Will Make America Great Again. Thank you, God Bless You, And God Bless America.

The greatest and most important commentary since Reagan and Hoover whose dictates may never be accomplished nor heard ever again, especially if Trump fails at re election efforts.

Big government has sucked the masses bone dry of revenue, capitalism, opportunity to forever work for a government whose power grows and in a direction to grow bigger and more powerful. Big government and Washington D.C allowed institutions dependent on government to form an alliance far greater than anyone imagined and now empire exists while the masses pay the cost in higher taxes and failed lives.

Central banks, Unions, Corporations, Big Tech, news media and all dependent on Washington are brothers in a massive empire that warns not of break up but growth and loss of a truly great nation while the masses starve in a life existence of trouble and toil and not worth a dam.

Brian Twomey

Understanding Trump Election

To understand Trump’s current election situation is to know the historic old problem to the Republican Party and it dates to the election of 1912 between Teddy Roosevelt and William Howard Taft.


Both Taft and Roosevelt were solid friends and Roosevelt appointed Taft to high level positions in his administration. When Roosevelt served his presidential time, he gave his blessings to Taft to become his successor in belief that Taft would carry on Roosevelt’s progressive – liberal, big government policies.


Taft went his own conservative way and against the big government progressives in favor of lower taxes and smaller government. Roosevelt was angered as his legacy he believed would be forgotten. Roosevelt then formed the Bull Moose Party to run against Republican Taft in the 1912 elections.


So bitter was the dispute and animosity between Roosevelt and Taft, it divided the nation and Republican party into 2 separate ideologies: Big Government Liberals Vs small Government, lower tax conservatives. Liberal Democrat Wilson won the 1912 election and served until 1920.


The 1920 Republicans were all Taft Conservatives in Harding, Coolidge and Hoover. only once was another Taft Republican seen in the modern day and that was Ronald Reagan until Trump came along.


Note Trump: anti establishment, Anti Washington, give power back to the people, small government, low taxes and Capitalism for all. Liberal big government Republicans and Democrats are against such practices. Missing in the equation is the masses as big government left the people behind when Hoover left office in 1932.


Against Trump today are the usual suspect historically: Democrats, Liberal Republicans, Washington DC and all the new organization built in the modern day such as Unions, news media and any organization associated with DC.


Trim has the masses on his side and seen by election rallies but Trump’s 2016 Inauguration speech and one of the greatest speeches since Hoover warned the establishment that Trump was coming after them.


Who votes against Trump but not for Biden was Liberal Republicans, Democrats, Washington, Unions.


Another Trump won’t be seen for another 40 and 50 years, especially if he doesn’t get re elected. Another Trump election will solidify the Republican National Committee to Taft and conservative ideology. Last time this happened was Reagan in 1980 -1988 but when the first George Bush gain the presidency, the National Committee shifted back to Teddy Roosevelt, Liberal republicans. Liberal Republicans under Trump’s National Committee will never see another election victory as Trump will appoint Taft conservative Republicans. Nor will Washington be of any value anymore. Its all about where the money is made and its all in DC not to the masses.

Brian Twomey

Trade Results: GBP/AUD, USD/PLN, USD/HUF

GBP/AUD Weekly Trade as Posted


GBP/AUD


Short 1.8487 and 1.8509 to target 1.8335
Highs 1.8445, Lows 1.8335
Trade Ran +110 Pips


2nd Leg
Short below 1.8311 to target 1.8201
Lows 1.8240
Trade Runs +71 pips


2 trades +181 Pips


3rd Leg
Long 1.8201 to target 1.8289


USD/PLN

Short 3.9555 and 3.9675 to target 3.8951.
Highs 3.9705, Lows 3.9171
Trade Runs +504 pips
Long way to target


USD/HUF

Short anywhere or 314.58 and 314.84 to target 309.51
Highs 315.81, Lows 312.19
off entry and bonus for Free money
trade runs from 314.84 +265 pips


Long way to target

Totals GBP/AUD 2 Trades +181 pips
USD/PLN +504 Pips
USD/HUF +265 pips
Total 4 trades +950 pips


Waiting on posted trades for USD/BRL, USD/MYR and EUR/JPY

Brian Twomey

Weekly Trades: USD/PLN, USD/HUF, USD/BRL, USD/MYR

Ranges to EM currencies also lack normal movement ability but this week looks decent. Trades in EM for USD are ready to go and will see great moves. USD/PLN, USD/HUF and USD/BRL are best trades while USD/MYR is sufficient. Its complement USD/RON doesn’t meet trade criteria. Note exchange rates: USD/MYR 4.1535 and USD/RON 4.1746. Both are the exact same currencies and trade together for a double trade.


USD/PLN
Short 3.9555 and 3.9675 to target 3.8951.
Short 3.8830 to target 3.8649
Long 3.8649 to target 3.8770
Long 3.8951 to 3.9313


USD/HUF
Short anywhere or 314.58 and 314.84 to target 309.51
Short 308.79 to target 306.61
Long 306.61 to target 308.06
Long 309.51 to target 311.68


USD/BRL
Short Anywhere or 5.7493 and 5.7555 to target 5.5645
Short 5.5311 to target 5.4643
Long 5.4643 to target 5.4977
Long 5.5645 to target 5.6648


USD/MYR
Long 4.1422 and 4.1375 to target 4.1721
Long above 4.1821 to target 4.2021
Short 4.2021 to target 4.1921
Short 1.1721 to target 4.1422

Brian Twomey