Into week 3 to the USD Vs Non USD divide, currency prices begin the week at far far extremes to each other. A rare time for currency markets as I don’t recall the last time such a development occurred. Weekly is seen possibly a few currency pairs at extremes but never all 28 currency pairs. EM is no different.
The early warning to problem currency markets and prices is the past 6 or so weeks when prices suffered range compression. Range compression informs market prices won’t trade correctly and markets are troubled. The pinpoint is today’s 5 year and longer averages as prices are on the verge of a possible break. Markets require a resolution in order to trade correctly again and trade by normal ranges.
EUR/USD 1.1482 vs USD/CAD 1.2203 is a great example yet the source to lead all currency prices to dead ranges.
The result for example is today’s EUR/USD and NZD/USD as severe problem pairs and a top and bottom. GBP/USD and AUD/USD as middle currency pairs are in great shape.
The simple strategy for the week is previous longs are now short and shorts are now longs.
The normal charts used for many years went down and not many reliable sources exist anymore. FxStreet offers world class charts and frankly better than previous sources. Candles and prices are exact which is what I require as well as drawn lines to candles and all highlighted information such as open, high, low, close. The charts are easily accessible, easy to operate an easily to view. No magnifying glass required.
USD/CNY Fix, Central Bank Methodology and Candles
The USD/CNY Fix for Monday: 6.4350 and 6.4314. Previous 6.4354. Note CNY and not offshore CNH as most vital to trade China’s currency particularly NDF’s, Non Deliverable Forwards. The Fix is vital to trade and hedge NDF’s. Forecast correctly 24 hours in advance saves much money to hedge costs but also offers advance trades. Thank you to my long time friend and 40+ years trading and teaching Forward contracts.
The Fix is assumed to report from the ECB. CNY is a complicated currency as many more steps are involved.
7.4714 and 7.4665. Both USD/CNY and EUR/CNY are oversold however USD/CNY is far more oversold than EUR/CNY. Means USD/CNY could see the low end FIX and EUR/CNY at the highs.
USD/CNY 1 Hour Candle
At Sunday’s open, 6.4351 to 6.4340.
Predicts any candle from 1 minute to hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and multi years.
Forecasts in advance by pen, paper and calculator using central bank methodology. Any currency on the planet.
The methodology applies to any Financial Instrument on the planet including any stock market, commodities. Interest Rates, Yields, bonds. Completed in 1 and 2 minutes.
Long Term Forecasts
GBP/USD trades from 1.3840 to 1.3480 and 1.3396. GBP/USD trades and functions extremely well.
EUR/AUD deeply oversold and trades from 1.5466, 1.5482, 1.5749, 1.5855 and 1.6023. Overall a well functioning currency.
NZD/USD. A troubled currency pair. Vital points 0.6864, 0.6923, 0.7047 and 0.7078. Above targets 0.7200’s.
Deeply oversold EUR/GBP approaches the 10 and 15 year averages just below at 0.8417 and 0.8402.
USD/CHF, USD/CAD and USD/JPY
This week USD/CHF and USD/CAD sit massive oversold while USD/JPY sits overbought from a monthly perspective. Long, long way to drop for USD/JPY as strategy remains short only and applies to JPY cross pairs. Watch USD/CHF 0.9218 for shorts and longs.
USD/EM vs EUR/EM
This week USD/EM and EUR/EM run neutral for most pairs.
USD/BRL and EUR/BRL both stand as neutral.
USD/DKK neutral Vs overbought EUR/DKK
USD/HRK neutral Vs Neutral EUR/HRK
USD/HUF neutral Vs slight overbought EUR/HUF
USD/KRW neutral Vs neutral EUR/KRW, watch 1371.64 for shorts
USD/MYR oversold Vs oversold EUR/MYR, nothing special here.
USD/NOK richter scale oversold Vs richter scale oversold EUR/NOK
USD/PLN neutral Vs Neutral EUR/PLN
USD/RON neutral Vs neutral EUR/RON
USD/SEK neutral vs Massive oversold EUR/SEK, great short
USD/TRY deeply overbought Vs massive overbought EUR/TRY
USD/ZAR Neutral Vs deep oversold EUR/ZAR and good long
USD/CAD and CAD/EM
USD/CAD begins the week deeply oversold and overbought CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY. No difference to deeply overbought CAD/EM from last week.
CAD/BRL nothing special here.