WEEKLY Trades DEC 3 to 7

 

12 Weekly Trades, see perfection to near perfection to entry, exit, target. Normally 2 way prices offered to allow continuous trades all week  but not this week as many prices are to low or to high. We trade for profit, not trade for gambles. Please visit trusted friend’s site at posy end. Brian Twomey, Contact for trades

 

                            Best trades this week are again GBP and as long as GBP pairs remain at current lower levels then GBP will remain on weekly priority list. GBP/USD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY. Next favored trades are USD/CAD, EUR/USD and EUR/CHF. Least favored trades are EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD.
GBP/USD break Point 1.2953, above 1.3101, 1.3262, 1.3305 and eventually 1.3822.
Strategy. Any price below 1.2953 is fair game for longs as GBP/USD must trade back to 1.2953 and higher. Long 1.2680 and 1.2719 to target 1.2932, Must break 1.2825 and 1.2878. The break at 1.2953 then target becomes 1.3107.
GBP/CAD Break point 1.7032, above targets 1.7127, 1.7222 and 1.7317.Overall GBP/CAD must trade to minimum 1.7061.
Strategy. Any price below 1.6942 is fair game for longs. Caution at 1.7074 for longs above 1.7032 as this line must break to target next at 1.7127 then 1.7222. Long 1.6865 and 1.6842 to target 1.6984 and a must break to then challenge 1.7032. Long
GBP/CHF Any price below 1.2798 is fair game for longs. Break point 1.2873, above targets 1.2979, 1.3036, 1.3193 and eventual must trade to 1.3270.
Strategy. Long 1.2684 and 1.2711 to target 1.2838. Must break 1.2838 to challenge 1.2873 to then target 1.2979.
GBP/JPY Any price below 144.18 is fair game for longs. Break Point 145.78, above targets 146.37, 146.97, 147.59 and eventual must trade to 148.67.
Strategy. Long 143.94 and 144.25 to target 145.47. Caution 145.47 as this is must break point to challenge 145.78 then target 146.37 and 146.97. Caution also at 146.82 as this line may not break this week but serves as good short point to target 146.37 and 145.98.
EUR/USD Break Point 1.1463, above caution at must breaks for higher at 1.1459 and 1.1507. Above 1.1507 then targets 1.1593, 1.1659 and eventual 1.1705.
Strategy. Any price below 1.1349 is fair game for longs as any price below must trade back to at least 1.1349 and higher. Long 1.1203, 1.1235 and 1.1268 to target 1.1401 and 1.1432. Caution 1.1401 must break to challenge 1.1463 then higher.
EUR/CHF Break Point 1.1392, above targets 1.1471, 1.1551 and 1.1631. Below, severe caution at 1.1292 and 1.1249 vital break points.
Strategy. Longs must break 1.1304 and 1.1309 to trade higher. Long 1.1270 to target above 1.1309 to 1.1377. Above 1.1392 then targets 1.1471 and 1.1511.
USD/CAD break Point 1.3151, below targets 1.3057, 1.2963, 1.2869 and eventual 1.2699.
Strategy. Any price above 1.3151 is fair game for shorts. Short 1.1339 and 1.3386 to target 1.3198 and 1.3174. Must break 1.3245.
EUR/CAD Break Point 1.5074, above targets 1.5170. Below caution at lines 1.4957 and 1.4939.
Strategy. Any price above 1.5170 is fair game for shorts as target at 1.4851 must break 1.4957 and 1.4939. Short 1.5170, 1.5189 and 1.5228 to target break at 1.5074 then 1.4997.
EUR/AUD Break point 1.5769, above targets 1.5912 and 1.6055.
Strategy. Long 1.5395 and 1.5422 to target 1.5554 and 1.5604.
EUR/NZD Break Point 1.6954.
Strategy. Long 1.6377 to target 1.6521 and 1.6593.
                                NZD/CAD
Break Point 0.8895, below targets 0.8759 , 0.8719 and 0.8623.
 
Strategy Any price above 0.9161 is fair game for shorts. Caution shorts at must break points for lower at 0.8973 and 0.8914. Short 0.9167, 0.9201 and 0.9235 to target 0.8948 however 0.8973 must break therefore exit just short at 0.9002. A break at 0.8973 then targets 0.8914. Must cross below points 0.9134, 0.9104 and 0.9038. 
NZD/USD
 
 Break Point 0.6763.
 
Strategy. 0.6911 and 0.6914  reside just above and a break higher at 0.6911 targets 0.6976 and 0.7011. Cautious shorts at 0.6905 to target 0.6809 and 0.6799. Must break below 0.6834 then target 0.6809. 
   Brian Twomey
   My trusted friend, http://tantalumwatches.com  exquisite top brand name Watches, #watches, Pocket Watches, Rings, luxurious, please have a look, Brian Twomey
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EUR/USD and Trade Service

 

The vast majority of writings over last months were posted on Linked IN to 2300 high quality followers and many many great topics on interest rates, trades, retail loses, interest rates as benchmarks to long term trades, USD V EUR deviation, Q Vs Q trades and Currency markets, ECB’s slash from 8 Euribor maturities to now 5 and implications, definition of a currency price, Fed Funds rate 25 year averages, Knut Wiksell Neutral interest rates.

The actionable and profitable money topics to markets and trades are many to bring a true comprehension to prices and present conditions must be addressed but me as a standalone doing my own research, can’t cover all the necessary topics. Today’s most ridiculous topic is inverted yield curves and recession ahead and wrong as usual to believe inverted when interest rate averages are well secured.

Then the question becomes why bother as traders, trade services and currency analysts devolved into a herd mentality. Analysis, trades and current market topics remain the same from person to person, bank to bank, trade service to trade service, website to website. I respect many at Fx street but contributor analysis and trades aren’t worth the paper its written on. Its the same old story, I’m a 1 man operation doing much work and its difficult to break through the crowds especially when we live on the assumptions goldman sachs says therefore its absolute.

Yet how useful is it to engage in such topics. Did any market topic, central bank meeting, economic announcement have any bearing on The EUR/AUD trade from 1.6300’s to 1.5600’s and a 2 month duration. This and many other longer term trades informs the market topics are the biggest crock of stuff ever foisted on the trading public. Now try and sell this concept to the trading public and most won’t bother reading.

So 2300 followers and 2000 + views now per writing, the result is more and more are flocking to my writings including banks and hedge funds I never knew existed, graduate students, professors, researchers.

The trade service is running and we are all very profitable week after week. Trades are now offered as daily, weekly and longer term, defined as 3 to 5 and 800+ pip trades. Many come and remain for long periods. Weekly trades are the standard 10 currency pairs, USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/CAD, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD, GBP/CHF, EUR/CHF and GBP/CAD.

Included when ready were NZD/USD, NZD/CAD and others. Daily trades are sent twice daily and are interest rate based trades. Contact if interested,

 

Brian Twomey, btwomey.com, brian@btwomey.com

 

 

EUR/USD, G10 and Overall Currency Market Conditions.

Common themes to Currency market prices is the extreme divide between EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD Vs USD counterparts USD/CAD, USD/JPY and signal pair to JPY crosses, CHF/JPY. Currency Pair CHF/JPY is a USD pair and its purpose in the 28 major pair universe serves as insight to USD/JPY as the counter balance and same exact pair, insight to USD, insight to USD/CHF and insight to all JPY cross pairs.

Currency CHF/JPY sits dead neutral and now ranges from its 117.00 drop to current 112.00’s. The insight to CHF/JPY informs JPY cross pairs also trade at far extremes from EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY to counterparts CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. Insights and trades were clear January to March / April as USD/JPY traded far lower than CHF/JPY then marriages and crossovers occurred. USD/JPY and CHF/JPY are currently in treacherous marriage mode.

Pairs EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY should trade miles lower as proper positions, counterparts higher but the extreme divide between USD and NON USD forces JPY cross pairs into neutrality as all are caught in the cross fire. CHF/JPY further informs USD/CHF sits at its traditional dead center position and smart for the SNB to allow equilibrium while the major pair extremes resolves itself and resolution means many months ahead rather than weeks. This means a stand alone trade in CHF crosses also retains dominance as minor range trades rather than trends. This includes CHF/JPY.

EUR/USD 1.1300’s, GBP/USD 1.2800’s, AUD/USD 0.7000’s, NZD/USD 0.6500’s retain positions as extreme lows and should trade easily 300 to 400 pips higher to declare normal currency markets within normalized ranges while USD/CAD 1.3100, USD/JPY 113.00 trade at extreme nadir and should trade miles lower.

USD pairs higher and non USD pairs lower only adds to an already deeply traded divide in currency market prices brought upon markets since the Mar / April period and FED interest rate raises. AUD and NZD were already off track by 300 and 400 pips but EUR and GBP lower ensured both pairs would remain lower for longer.

A meeting at the center is desperately required to see more normalized and wider ranges and lasting trends with purpose and meaning. Current trades at extreme divides lack description as trades or smart but more accurately reflects a dangerous and pure speculative trade. Currency pair choice and trade selection remains extraordinarily vital in the current divided environment. Best for daily and weekly trades to view wider range pairs until extreme divide rectifies itself and better trades materialize.

The central bank question is answer the FED call and raise interest rates to allow higher currency prices and obvious meeting at the equilibrium center or retain a lower and expensive currency price for export purposes at the expense of national GDP. Not sure Export to GFP correlation nor exchange rate equilibrium until data is seen but CAD/USD at 0.7631 may soon provide an answer against the BOC’s latest raise.

While overall USD Vs Non USD trade at exorbitant extremes, cross pair non compliance and caught in the cross fire forces a slow path to normalcy and the desperately needed position to the center.

Longs in EUR/USD, EUR/CHF and EUR/CAD are offset by shorts in EUR/JPY, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP. Both EUR/JPY and EUR/CAD are fast moving and are dangerous close to perfect mathematical neutrality while EUR/CHF lacks ability outside a 100 pip range. EUR/USD lives on its own in the basement.

USD/CAD’s wider ranges are offset by dead ranges in CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF. Brexit and USD extremes are clearly seen in GBP/USD as current 1.4990 is the driver price and down from 1.5600’s at Brexit announcement.

Higher GBP to 1.3900 target can only materialize upon a Brexit and USD resolution. Meanwhile GBP/CAD is driven by USD/CAD while GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD are heading lower and driven by AUD/USD and NZD/USD, GBP/JPY retains neutrality and GBP/CHF lacks a significant range.

The most significant long trade is NZD/USD and any pairs with NZD in first position as NZD/USD alone targets multiple 100’s of pips higher.The least significant shorts are USD/CHF and USD/JPY but best is USD/CAD.

Currency market prices are in deep disarray and lack any resemblance to uniformity. Prior currency market periods experienced such USD V Non deep divides before and corrected more quickly as past periods allowed for far wider price movements. As range compression and slower price movements became the new order under the 2016 interest rate reforms, correction to the current chaos could take easily 6 months or more.

To a more distant divide in USD V Non is the question of results to an outside event such as war, terrorist attack, political calamity, an Iranian missile, troops at the border. Such an outside event would experience a 500 pip move faster than the eye could blink. Between the dangerous overall currency market structure and the political/ war scenario, deep caution is warranted.

EUR/USD. Break pont 1.1589.

GBP/USD break Point 13105.

GBP/JPY 146.43.

CHF/JPY 113.10.

EUR/JPY 129.50.

USD/JPY 111.76

 

Brian Twomey. For FX trades and assistance, contact.

My trusted friend, http://tantalumwatches.com  exquisite top brand name Watches, #watches, Pocket Watches, Rings, luxurious, please have a look, Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY and Realignment

The topic of rarely seen currency market Realignment was addressed before but EUR/JPY contains its best shot to break below 124.06 and force Realignment. Why EUR/JPY is because its most widely traded, it contains, as most currency pairs, 2 opposites and because currency markets are defined by cross pairs as many more exist than the 7 major pairs. Further, Cross pairs actually and traditionally run and define currency markets.

For 28 major currency pairs to include the USD V Non USD majors then 376 combinations exist. Subtract for example EUR/USD and USD/EUR then 14 pairs from the majors must subtract from 376 to define total currency market cross pairs as 362 cross pairs.

Realignment is defined periodically as a shift in currency pair focus every 10 to 12 years within any 50 year market period. From 1998 to 2008, EUR and risk on defined the period as EUR/USD climbed from 1.0000’s to 1.3900 and EUR/JPY from 110.00 to 169.00. USD/JPY traded at 110.00’s. Realigment hit in 2008 and EUR/USD dropped from 1.3900 to 1.0300, USD/JPY to 124.00 and EUR/JPY traded alongside USD/JPY but above 10 year averages.

Realignment is a correlational shift from cross pairs to major pairs and cross pairs define the shift. Realignment can only be seen from cross pairs. EUR/USD trades below its 10 year average at 1.2600’s, EUR/JPY above at 124.06 and USD/JPY above at 99.00. EUR/USD not only lost its association to EUR/JPY but it lost its correlational association as well. EUR/JPY and USD/JPY above both 10 year averages means both share correlational associations.

EUR/JPY and USD/JPY above 10 year averages and EUR/USD below define the 2008 to current period as USD dominant. Traditional USD dominant periods experience less volatility, bout 500 to 1000 pips while EUR/JPY correlational attachment to its rightful owner EUR/USD experiences higher volatility, bout 1000 pips higher. See 2015 EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, EUR/USD academic paper and Residual plots for a picture to pip boundaries from 1998 to 2008 and 2008 to 2015.

EUR/USD as the major pair must include to any realignment because Europe and the United States are complete opposite political and economic systems in yields, interest rates and economic prosperity. One side wins as the other side loses. But currency pairs are also opposites and again only one side can win while the other loses.
EUR/JPY must drop below 124.06 then realignment is upon us. The current USD dominant currency market is 10 years old and its a matter of time before the market realigns and shifts.

Realignment means easily 1000 pip currency markets to re normalize prices in relation to 10 Y averages. 1000 pips means EUR/USD to 1.2600, GBP/USD to 1.3900’s, AUD/USD to 0.7800’s, NZD/USD to 0.7500, USD/JPY to 97.00, USD/CAD to 1.1400’s and the list goes on.

Realignment means long and short trades to last for years. Traders can transform from trader to long term investor. Trades are long term in relation to 10 year averages. The shift means cross pairs realign to major counterparts. Throw a dart at a currency pair then go long or short for a year or 2.

Trump is viewed as the catalyst because he’s normalizing a 30 year out of control political system. All nations will and are currently following Trump to normalization.

Free float now year 46, at 50 current period must end. its biblical leviticus 25, jubilee at 49 Y. EUR/JPY below 124.06 also means the last hurrah for currency trading as a complete new method will dominate the next 10 years. Happened every time since BOE 1694 creation.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

 

 

The common theme in currency markets is volatility into the 4th quarter as it existed in the 2nd quarter is here and it demonstrates by the amount of trades and pips posted in the unrecognized March/ April period. 4th quarter volaitlity and number of great trades will exist as it did in quarter 2 and this volatility will also last for the entire quarter. Currency pair trade choices are always most vital as certain currency pair prices will out perfom others and because certain currency pair prices lead and lag each other.

Currency pair choices in the major pairs are 28 and this means 378 combinations of 2 or 378 currency pair selections to trade. The focus is always on the same old tired non mover pairs. EUR/USD is always a focus but this miserable currency pair lives in ranges for most of its trading life and rarely leaves it boundaries. When EUR/USD traded to 1.1800’s was the only time all year when EUR/USD contained a deviation worth trading as the deviation gap lacked any choice except to close to only then see EUR/USD back inside its same tired dead ranges. Vital to know specific range points in range trades or problems exist. Range pairs, EUR/USD specific, is always over forecasted.

USD/JPY or miserable currency pair number 2 trades all year at 200 pip break points from 104, 106, 108, 110. Now USD/JPY trades from its lower break point at 111.88 to 112.48. Its an untouchable currency pair especially above 112.48 and remains in ranges for months.

Opportunity is presented by a dead USD/JPY as the pre·eminence signal pair to JPY cross pairs is found in CHF/JPY. Know CHF/JPY then is known GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and anti’s AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY and NZD/JPY. Know CHF/JPY then is known 6 trades to include CHF/JPY. Know JPY cross pairs to its major counterparts as attachments then is known double trades in EUR/USD and EUR/JPY, GBP/USD and GBP/JPY, AUD/USD and AUD/JPY, USD/CAD and CAD/JPY, USD/CHF and CHF/JPY. Total 5 more trades are added from 6. Know currency pair relationships then is known currency pairs formed as economic documents.

GBP/USD on paper is the big mover currency pair but never lives to its billing. At 1.3900 exist the overall target as mentioned many times since March/ April. GP/USD will trade to 1.3900.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD are off kilter by at least 300 to 400 pips and this means both should trade 300 to 400 pips higher. Off kilter means EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD are running to wild volatility.

EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD are good examples to today’s volatility. EUR/AUD shorts from 1.6300 traded to 1.5900’s against a 1.5600 target. Took 10 days for EUR/AUD to drop to 1.5900’s and 3 days to trade back from 1.5900’s to 1.6300. This trade is the exact same trade taken in March / April from short 1.6400 to 1.5600 target. Trade took almost 7 weeks to complete the 1.5600 target in March / April then 4 months to trade back to 1.6300’s.

EUR/NZD short from 1.7800 to target 1.7200’s traded days later to upper 1.7400’s then bounced to 1.7800’s days later.

EUR/AUD. Break Point 1.6026. Driver to EUR/AUD is AUD/USD. Lower AUD/USD then higher EUR/AUD, higher AUD/USD then lower EUR/AUD. More specifically EUR/AUD is currently overbought, AUD/EUR severely oversold. Both AUD/USD and EUR/AUD are severely off range by easily 300 to 400 pips. This means AUD/USD must trade to 0.7300 to 0.7400 and EUR/AUD to 1.6026 break then 1.5835 and longer term 1.5600’s.

Strategy. Short any market price from the close at 1.6337 to target 1.6176, 1.6085, break at 1.6026 then 1.5835 and longer term 1.5611. Short only strategy means short tops.

Few traders are assisted with daily and long term trades and these longer term trades are becoming very popular as we’re trading 8 and 10 pairs at a clip. Contact if interested.

Break Points.

EUR/USD. 1.1680.

CHF/JPY 114.30.

GBP/JPY. 147.19.

GBP/USD 1.3150.

AUD/USD 0.7290.

EUR/CAD 1.5132.

USD/CAD 1.2956. See 1.2600 target written ad nauseam since March / April.

GBP/CHF 1.2881.

EUR/NZD 1.7463.

 

Brian Twomey

 

Currency Market Alignment V Realignment

Currency Market Realignment EUR/USD V EUR/JPY V USD/JPY  Normal currency market alignment exists when most widely traded EUR/USD and USD/JPY trade above and below market barometer, 10Y AVGS.

EUR/JPY is the outlier and currently trades above its 10Y at 124.62. EUR/JPY and USD/JPY then share positive correlations in risk off, USD favored markets while EUR/USD as the lone wolf trades below its 10Y at 1.2662 and negative correlates.

The lone wolf EUR/USD is always sold and long USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Alignments and Realignments are periodic and last for years. We’re in 4th and last Quadrant to 50 year Free Float.  Rarely seen Realignment occurs when EUR/JPY breaks below 10Y at 124.42, reattaches to its rightful position to correlate positive to EUR/USD and both begin a long multi year journey upward to trade above both its 10 year averages in risk on, USD negative markets.

USD/JPY becomes the lone wolf, loses EUR/JPY positive correlations to go negative and begins the long journey down to break its 10 year Avg at current 99.16. Alignment/ Realignments are wholesale market shifts, complete role reversals to currency pair positions and takes about 1Y to fully complete. 1998 and 2008 were last true alignments to understand time contexts to changes an rare events. my Paper stats, pics

 

 

 

Currency Market Alignment V Realignment
 Currency Market Alignment today, USD/CAD dropped, GBP/CAD dropped, EUR/CAD dropped, AUD/CAD dropped, Favored USD or Right side of currency Pair Equation,
In Realignment, Cross pairs rise or remain in range, favors left side of currency pair equation and to its rightful owners / positions.
Mathematically, Alignment / Realignment is a Correlational Shift but shifts based on currency pair locations / positions related to its respective Currency pair counterparts.
Historic barometer since 1972 free float for overall currency market is most widely traded EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR.JPY. Yet Correlations contain bottoms and tops, RHO for example so individual tops and bottoms assesses to question of start to finish in any currency pair arrangement. Smart traders would assess by interest rates or Forward Points per nation as interest rates see currency pair prices miles ahead. 

 

Brian Twomey   Contact   brian@btwomey.com

Fat Tails, Tail Risk

 

Found this on Linked In and deserves  special attention

 

What is ” Tail Risk ” (FAT TAILS) ? Tail risk is a form of portfolio risk that arises when the possibility that an investment will move more than three standard deviations from the mean is greater than what is shown by a normal distribution.

The concept of tail risk suggests that the distribution of returns is not normal, but skewed, and has fatter tails.

The fat tails indicate that there is a probability, which may be small, that an investment will move beyond three standard deviations.

Kurtosis is a statistical measure that indicates whether observed data follow a heavy or light tailed distribution in relation to the normal distribution.

The normal distribution curve has a kurtosis equal to three and, therefore, if a security follows a distribution with kurtosis greater than three, it is said to have fat tails.

Distributions that are characterized by fat tails are often seen when looking at hedge fund returns. Hedging against tail risk aims to enhance returns over the long-term, but investors must assume short-term costs.

 

Brian Twomey  Contact brian@btwomey.com

EUR/NZD V NZD/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

 

EUR/NZD break point for lower to target first 1.7047 then 1.6958 is located at 1.7127. A break lower at 1.7210 then comes the challenge to the 1.7127 break point. EUR/NZD rallies are targeted and meant to be sold especially at 1.7409 factored from the 1.7332 close.

The driver to lower EUR/NZD is deeply oversold NZD/USD. NZD/USD’s main break point for higher prices is located at 0.6852 and 0.6778. Higher above 0.6852 and the target location is 0.6963. NZD/USD break point at 0.6852 coincides to EUR/NZD at 1.7127 break and 1.7047 as first target. EUR/NZD at 1.6958 coincides to NZD/USD 0.6963. Over weeks and months,

Overall NZD/USD higher potential is quite astounding at 400 pips to the 0.6963 location but this is where NZD/USD targets and this is where its going. While EUR/NZD targets lower and sell rallies on a short only strategy, NZD/USD targets higher and buy drops on a long only strategy.

For the week, EUR/NZD targets lower at 1.7240 and caution at the main shortest break point at 1.7210. NZD/USD from its 0.6568 close targets first 0.6705 then 0.6778.

 

My trusted friend,  exquisite top brand name Watches, , Pocket Watches, Rings, luxurious, please have a look, Brian Twomey

 

Brian Twomey

USD/JPY: The Defensive Currency Pair

 

Not Complete

 

The USD/JPY question at the end of WW2 as USD/JPY was priced at 360.00 was how to sustain Japan and ensure viability to JPY. The answer was to price JPY to a correlation degree against the major pairs so to ensure JPY permanently remains a defensive currency pair. Most vital to defense and viability was place JPY as an implant to the majors. An insertion in the correct position ensures JPY survives and trades alongside major pairs but never becomes a leader currency pair. A few examples.
USD/CAD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF. Trading USD/JPY levels,ranges and targets are priced between USD/CHF and USD/CAD.
EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY

USD/CAD, USD/CHF, JPY Cross Pairs: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Since the volatility and 35 trades from the March / April period, prices for USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs settled except GBP/JPY to consolidate into smaller ranges for June and July. Reported miles ahead to price settlement in currency pair prices resulted in accurate warnings.

The clear losers in JPY cross pairs in order was NZD/JPY as March to July, prices roamed from 79.00 to 74.00 but June to July traded 200 pips from 74.00 to 76.

CAD/JPY traded 81.00 to 86.00 March to July then ranges restricted to 300 pips from 82.00 to 85.00 for June to July.
CHF/JPY as the perfect follower to USD/JPY traded 486 pips from March to July but traded 316 pips June to July from 113.26 to 110.10. Perfect tracker means USD/JPY closed at 111.45 while CHF/JPY closed at 111.63.

AUD/JPY traded 80.00 to 84.00 March to July but 380 pips June to July from 80.71 to 84.51.

The clear winners were EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY as EUR/JPY traded 890 pips from March to July at 124.62 to 133.52 but 528 pips June / July from 126.63 to 131.91. GBP/JPY traded 1000 pips from March to July 153 to 143 but 523 pips June / July from 149.24 to 144.01.

JPY cross pairs for deep consideration tor the week and BOJ Tuesday in order is GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY. GBP/JPY sits 300 pips within a 144.71 to 147.42 range and EUR/JPY within a 200 pips range from 129.08 to 130.45.

Stand clear of CAD/JPY as this pair contains deep range problems while AUD/JPY in 4 months ranges comfortably within its 82.00 to 84.00 intervals.

GBP/JPY range is located from 144.71 to the break point for higher at 147.42. Long on drops is the weekly strategy as GBP/JPY must trade to 146.15 and longer term target to 149.76. The 147.00’s won’t break easily this week as much resistance begins at 147.08, 147.36, 147.42 and 147.99. At 147.00’s represents the reversal zone to allow 147.00’s to break higher later,.

EUR/JPY Break point to target 131.00’s is located solidly at 130.45. EUR/JPY sits deeply oversold on massive supports from 128.08, 128.77, 128.56 and 129.40. A break of 130.45 targets 131.22 and 131.50’s. Above 131.50’s then short only strategy is the way forward. Overall, I wouldn’t marry a EUR/JPY trade but trade within the 128 to 130.00 range.

CHF/JPY is a fascinating currency pair and it should retain permanent adoption to any USD/JPY and JPY cross pair strategy alongside EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY.

CHF/JPY break point to target 112.20, 112.52 and later 113.48 is located at 112.01. The best target for the week on a break of 112.01 is 112.56. Below watch 110.59 as a good long to target again lower 112.00. Why long CHF/JPY is because USD/CHF is overbought.

USD/CHF Break point to target 0.9795, 0.9677 and 0.9661 is located at 0.9875. USD/CHF is driven lower by massive overbought from 0.9795 and 0.9677. Sell strategy is the way forward especially below 1.0128.

USD/CAD break point to target 1.2977, 1.2918 and 1.2858 is located at 1.3033. Above 1.3033, range becomes 1.3051 to 1.3173. USD/CAD remains 4 weeks later, a sell only strategy for the eventual break of 1.3033 and target to lower 1.2800’s.

 

Brian Twomey

 

My trusted friend, exquisite top brand name Watches, , Pocket Watches, Rings, luxurious, please have a look, Brian Twomey

FX Currency Pair Associations Part 2

 

CAD/CHF 0.7633

AUD/USD 0.7373

AUD/CHF 0.7356 Normally CAD/CHF runs with NZD/CHF

 

EUR/JPY 129.46

GBP/JPY 145.38, Outliers especially to AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY and NZD/JPY

 

NZD/JPY 75.23

AUD/JPY 81.98

CAD/JPY 85.02

 

USD/CHF 0.9945

AUD/CAD 0.9637, SNB Peg, AUD/CAD = Risk Pair

 

USD/CHF 0.9945

EUR/GBP 0.8843, USD Pairs, Different Prices

 

Brian Twomey

FX Currency Pair Associations

 

USD/CAD 1.3058

GBP/USD 1.3087

GBP/CHF 1.3056    Same Pairs, Same Prices, SNB Peg

 

CHF/JPY 111.45

USD/JPY 111.18 Same Pairs, Same price, SNB Peg

 

EUR/USD 1.1625

EUR/CHF 1.1597 Same Pairs, Same Price, SNB Peg

 

NZD/CAD 0.8843

EUR/GBP 0.8882 Same Pair, Same Price

 

CAD/JPY 85.07

AUD/JPY 81.98 Same pair, Different Price, Price normally runs together

 

EUR/AUD 1.5765

EUR/CAD 1.5193 Same Pair, Different Price, price normally runs together

 

GBP/CAD 1.7104

EUR/NZD 1.7179 Same Pair, Same Price

GBP/AUD 1.7748, Normally Same Pair, Different price

 

NZD/CHF 0.6750

NZD/USD 0.6765 Same Pair, Same Price

 

AUD/CHF 0.7356

AUD/USD 0.7373 Same Pair, Same Price

 

AUD/CAD 0.9631

NZD/CAD 0.8843, Same Pair, Normally Price Runs Together

 

AUD/NZD 1.0896 and GBP/NZD 1.9340  are Outlier Currency Pairs and lack associations, currently

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

 

 

GDP: Levels, Ranges, Targets

US GDP consensus forecast at 2.2 is extraordinarily light in terms of overall GDP averages spread over a 10 year period. Every average from 1 to 10 years sits dead on the floor and deeply oversold. The potential for a 3% and lower 4.0% GDP is easily achievable if not Friday then within reach of the next release.

The range of the overall averages begins at 1.90 and 1.98 to 2.65. The 2.2 forecast is located at the 1 year average and this location alone warns of a higher GDP. Typically, consensus predictions are seen when GDP is forecast from the 4 and 5 year averages. We’ve seen this many times before against prior written forecasts to NFP’s.

Targets range from 2.68 and 2.77 to 4.03 and 4.09. Why the wide variation is due to oversold averages and targets are points where the distribution of averages must align. This means targets must fulfill destinations and 4.0% is on the way.

The first realistic targets are located at 2.68, 2.77, 3.06 and 3.13. Note 2.68 as the first target surpasses the longest 2.65 average. A forecast above 2.65 then the averages will rise and GDP will later result in higher forecasts.

Last quarter, USD Dollar GDP increased a whopping 4.2% or $200 billion as overall Nominal GDP stands at $19.96 trillion. Overall Nominal GDP represents a nation’s wealth. What assist a far higher GDP over next quarters are Corporate profits and corporate profits are skyrocketing.

Overall, GDP is forecast higher than 2.2% to near 3.0%.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY, CAD, GBP, AUD, NZD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Week 3 of Statistical nightmares in cross pairs, year 46 from the 1972 free float and 2 years since central banks reorganized national interest rates, comes the question, how is the health of currency market prices.

Seen in current year 46 is traditional last 12 1/2 year operations as happened everytime in market last periods since the 1600’s: questionable economic experiments, crazy politics, uncertain price movements, crazy volatility, no trends and movements based on the latest daily words from central banks and political leaders.

Last period markets practice defense mechansisms to fight against the inevitable market period end to begin the next 50 year cycle. The next 12 1/2 period cycle traditionally experiences wonderful prosperity, normal markets and certain trends. The uncertain question is will markets transition into the new period as was the case in 1972 and 1944 Bretton Woods or by a market crash.

Politically as Presidents are creatures of the times for which we live, Trump I view as a transition president to right the wrongs from past decade presidencies as much as Harding, Coolidge and Hoover were transitional presidents to right the wrongs from Wilson and the Progressive Movements.

Rather than control the exchange rate directly as was past central bank practice, reorganize then Fix interest rates to small ranges contained the indirect effect to exchange rate control with the added benefit to skyrocket QE, money supplies. The reality to the past 2 year interest rate experiment is money supplies, interest and exchange rates are completely distorted and mis Correlated to actual normalized levels.

All central banks became masters of this confidence game, especially the ECB and explains EUR/USD’s 2 month range from 1.1500’s to 1.1700 but also reveals EUR cross pairs are most problematic in the G10 space because G10 nations are interest rate based as opposed to Repo Rates in EM markets. But further to the ECB’s innate ability to control its interest rates.

Cross pairs became the victims to the new interest rate schemes as they find themselves stuck against deep range problems. The usual suspects remain EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP and added is EUR/CHF. EUR/CAD is a traditional neutral and non wide ranging currency pair but seen is an incredible move must occur in order for EUR/CAD to normalize. EUR/GBP may have to travel higher to normalize yet this sets up EUR/GBP to a long term short. This assumes for EUR/CAD and EUR/GBP normal trading.

While GBP/USD remains normal, wide ranging GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD persist as problem pairs. AUD/USD as normal, wider ranging AUD/CHF, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD remain problems. USD, JPY cross pairs and NZD retain normality to signify normal trading moves as opposed to big moves expected in problem pairs. Problem pair retention from usual suspects 3 weeks later further signifies not only the markets inability to normalize prices but the deep degree to how far are the distortions in money supplies, interest and exchange rates.

EUR/USD last week’s 1.1798 target achieved 1.1738 yet just shy of the 1.1800’s break point. This week’s target at 1.1794 falls just shy of the 1.1802 break point in order for a higher EUR to target 1.1870, 1.1957 and eventual 1.2088.
As reported over many weeks, the break at 1.1800’s has been resilient as this marks a higher EUR. Watch for failure and deep drop.

Lower to target 1.1540, EUR/USD must break 1.1694, 1.1681, 1.1645, 1.1623 then flood gates open to 1.1540. Any price below 1.1645 becomes open game to longs.

USD/JPY break point for lower to target 109.00’s is located at 110.78. The 109.00’s however represent not only many and massive supports but a break of 109.00’s targets easily 107.00’s and lower. Overall 109.00’s is the line in the sand. Above 11207 and 112.78 are sell points. Above 112.78 then a short only strategy is the only way to proceed.

GBP/USD from a short, medium and long term perspective is severely oversold. The break point for higher is located at 1.3360 to target 1.3440, 1.3521 and 1.3589. GBP/USD must first break 1.3322 then home free to 1.3360 and higher.

GBP shortest term must trade to 1.3214, 1.3221, 1.3247 then 1.3322 on a long only strategy.

AUD/USD How many weeks for AUD is severely oversold, break point at 0.7501 and long any drops to the eventual break. AUD severely under performs due to severe range problems inside 100 pip ranges. Under 0.7383 then long only while above 0.7501 then targets 0.7535, 0.7581, 0.7620 and eventual 0.7767.

Here’s USD/CAD close 1.3141 and GBP/USD 1.3126.

USD/CAD remains the favorite currency pair. USD/CAD break point for lower to target 1.2966, 1.2956, 1.2914, 1.2862 and 1.2778 is located at 1.3036. Above 1.3194 then short only becomes the strategy.

NZD/USD break point for higher to target 0.6991, 0.7004, 0.7045 and 0.7063 is located at 0.6910. NZD currently is deeply oversold and retains a huge potential for much higher. Higher must first break 0.6875 and 0.6901 then home free to upper decks. Massive supports exists below at 0.6775 and 0.6765. Any price below then longs is the way.

 

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Brian Twomey

 

 

USD/CNY Vs CNY/JPY: Levels, Ranges, Targets

From the USD/CNY April 1 post, a re visit and brief history to Yuan internationalization since 2005.
USD/CNY trade history as a result of the 2005 internationalization of the Yuan began July 2005 at 8.0351 then dropped over 1200 pips 3 years later to 6.7922 in July 2008. From July 2008 to May 2010, USD/CNY traded in dormant stages inside a 795 pip range from 6.8895 to 6.8090.

USD/CNY’s 789 pip downtrend resumed from June 2010 to June 2014 from 6.8305 to a 9 year bottom at 6.0406. An uptrend began from 6.0406 to June 2017 highs at 6.9622. USD/CNY trades at current roughly 6.7788 April 1.

USD/CNY since 2005 and in 144 traded months, 99 down months were seen as opposed to 45 up months.

Politically, China was granted Most Favored Trade status by the 1st George Bush Administration in 1991 – 1992 which means zero to low low tariff charges for China Imports and Most Favored Nation Status resumes to current day.

USD/CNY when last visited April 1 traded at 6.2874 and the forecast was to trade 997 pips higher to 6.3268, 6.3779 and 6.3871. USD/CNY since broke 6.3871 to trade at current 6.7788 and trades above the 5 and 10 year averages at 6.4234 and 6.4972.
USD/CNY’s range from most significant break points is located from 6.5572 to 6.8085, a 2513 pip range as USD/CNY is an extremely wide ranging currency pair both on a short and long term basis.

USD/CNY rose 6000 more pips higher than the 997 pip forecast in April from 6.3871. The reason is China is a Repo rate nation as opposed to most G10 as interest rate nations, big difference.

Best manner to view USD/CNY ranges short term is from 700, 800 and 1000 pips and this represents just the start to longer term USD/CNY forecasts.

From current 6.7788, USD/CNY is deeply overbought into the stratosphere and must trade lower. The first target below is located at 6.7001 and 6.6797 then 6.6358 and 6.6121. For far lower, USD/CNY must break 6.5572 and 6.5429. Until both breaks then USD/CNY must view as a correction inside a larger uptrend.

CNY/JPY from current 16.6740 is deeply oversold and must trade higher yet trade higher is representative of a correction inside a larger downtrend. The current range is supported below at 16.6326 and 16.4993 Vs above breal points at 16.8509 and 16.8983. A break of 16.8983 the next targets 16.9678 and 17.0324. The break at 16.8983 to travel higher corresponds to USD/CNY 6.5572.

Targets above for higher begins at 16.6901 and 16.7642 for roughly a 902 pip corrective move. On a longer term, multi month term, CNY/JPY has potential to trade to 17.0580.

As was stated many times, Fed Funds was and remains in extreme overbought into all 2016 and overbought extremes means 20 and 25 year monthly averages. Yet the Fed never halted it raise path. Significant moves will be seen in currency prices especially in the USD/CNY and CNY/JPY relationship upon a Fed halt to raises. A 5 year median Dot Plot hardly reveals the true position to current Fed Funds.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Last week’s currency markets reported the 2nd week to Statistical nightmares, Statistical anomalies where Majors in USD V Non USD are at Statistical Wars with respect to their own prices as well as war against other currency pairs.
Traditionally, if one currency pair is affected by uncertain statistical direction then all currency pair prices are affected as nations purposefully hold currency prices extremely close to its counterpart nations, especially in today’s central bank newly created currency price.

Statistical assessment over the past 2 weeks revealed itself as technical analysis displays this week Doli candles in GBP/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD.

Recall last week’s revelations to not only above cross pairs on the problem list but best price movements would derive from cross pairs. Why is answered by settlement in EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, USD/JPY and NZD/USD but unsettled prices to GBP/USD and AUD/USD. The further note is JPY cross pairs remain in good stead to problems except EUR/JPY.

While EUR/USD is desperately trying to rise, range tops in EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and problem pair EUR/CHF prevent EUR/USD further to break its vital point at 1.1819.

While GBP/USD price is far to low and must rise, problems derive from GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD.

As AUD/USD also desperately seeks to rise to break 0.7520, problems developed in AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD while AUD/CHF leaves the problem pair list.

Overall, currency prices contain range and alignment dilemmas and the origin is located from exorbitantly high interest rates in all nations.

The RBA and Lowe confirms wholesale interest rates are far to high. Such a development derives from the Fed as all central banks price national interest rates from the Fed and it begins with the RBNZ then feeds to all central banks. To high by my assessment and common to all central banks is about 40ish basis points and quite staggering by today’s standards.

EUR/USD targets this week 1.1798 on breaks of 1.1700, 1.1715 and 1.1729. Vital break at 1.1819 targets higher levels at 1.1916, 1.1972 and eventual 1.2088. Below targets 1.1545, 1.1410 and 1.1401 on breaks of 1.1680 and 1.1631. EUR/USD strategy remains longer term in long only mode as averages are rising alongside higher prices.

USD/JPY current massive overbought and multi year range top at 112.82 targets lower to 111.11, 109.64 and 109.42. Target at 109.00’s achieves destinations only on a break of 110.27. The 110.00’s and 109.00’s however formed many and massive supports from 110.73, 110.54, 110.40 and 110.32.

USD/JPY gained roughly 200 pips per month since the 104.63 bottoms in March and now the 112.82 range top is upon JPY. Short only is the strategy over the longer term as USD/JPY contains every ability to travel lower to 108.00’s and 107.00’s.

GBP/USD ranged last week 252 pips from 1.3360 to 1.3108 lows and its vital break point for higher to 1.3500’s, 1.3600’s and 1.3800’s is located at 1.3412. GBP/USD targets this week 1.3313 and a must break point in order to challenge 1.3412. Any price below 1.3220 is open to longs on a long only strategy as GBP targets far higher prices over time.

AUD/USD break point is located at 0.7520 and targets upon a break higher 0.7566, 0.7634 and 0.7773 longer term. AUD/USD’s previous multi week target at 0.7500’s was prevented by a corrective rise in EUR/AUD to 1.5900’s from the 1.5200 lows in June. Current EUR/AUD target at 1.5500’s and lower places AUD/USD to its current 0.7520 break point.

USD/CAD again remains most favored because its a pure and market oriented currency pair. Neither the BOC nor Fed holds USD/CAD from its wide movements.

A break at 1.3106 and 1.3039 allows CAD a run to its vital point for lower at 1.3014 to target 1.2972, 1.2956, 1.2905 and 1.2858. USD/CAD trades at multi year range tops and the commitment to a lower CAD on a short only strategy not only remains but holds for many weeks to come.

Problem pair break points .

EUR/CHF is not only overbought but watch the break point at 1.1652.

GBP/CAD Do or Die is located at 1.7450.

GBP/NZD current overbought and break point is located at 1.9359.

GBP/AUD Do or Die at 1.7835 from the close at 1.7829.

AUD/CAD Watch 0.9784 from the close at 0.9765.

AUD/NZD severely overbought from its 1.0970 close requires a break at 1.0855 for much lower prices.

CAD/CHF from 0.7611 closed exactly on its 100 day average and its break point is located at 0.7578 to target lower prices.

 

Brian Twomey

 

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EUR/CAD V GBP/AUD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

On April 11 when last EUR/CAD was visited, the trade strategy was sell 1.5900 to target 1.5500’s then 1.5300’s. The warning was 1.4900’s would trade on a break of 1.5300’s. Severely overbought EUR/CAD from April 11 traded to 1.4900’s at the end of May.
From the May lows at 1.4900’s, EUR/CAD traded to 1.5500’s and now sits deeply overbought at lower 1.5400’s. EUR/CAD is heading right back to 1.4942 and 1.4905.

On the way, EUR/CAD must break 1.5374, 1.5314, 1.5080 and 1.5068 then home free to 1.4900’s.

The multi week strategy as was the trade status for EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD is sell any and all rallies and trade down to 1.4900’s. Any priice above 1.5433 becomes an added bonus. If Poloz at the BOC offers Wednesday a skyrocket EUR/CAD then a further benefit is again added.

GBP/AUD as was last addressed April 8 and traded at 1.8300’s stood just below resistance at 1.8696. The target then was 1.8200’s and 1.7900’s on a further break of 1.8127. GBP/AUD traded to 1.7399 by end June.

Current GBP/AUD at 1.7700’s remains a sell rally strategy as long as price remains below 1.8658 and 1.8665. At 1.7700’s, bottoms are located at 1.7442 and 1.7394.

Higher to target 1.8168 and 1.8270 must break 1.7757, 1.7826, 1.7856, 1.7919 and 1.8030. Most vital for higher as a shorter term strategy is located at 1.7826 to target 1.7900’s.

Overall, the more comfortable strategy is long from 1.7400’s and 1.7300’s to target 1.7700’s and 1.7826. GBP/AUD from last post remains on the problem currency pair list but the problem is uncertain direction as much resistance lies above and the Stats are clearly fighting upside V downside moves.

The clear strategy is found in short EUR/AUD as opposed to GBP/AUD.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY, AUD, GBP, CAD: levels, Ranges, Targets

Currency Markets this week retain 2nd week of Statistical nightmares, Statistical anomalies where Majors in USD V Non USD are at Statistical Wars with respect to their own prices as well as war against other currency pairs. USD/CAD 1.3400 and USD/JPY 110.90’s great examples. War means pertinent Statistics lack uniformity to higher / lower but the condition is temporary and offers trade opportunities and insights to types of markets that will trade as the market rightsizes prices. The key is understanding.

Current Stat war is causing much grief to cross pairs as evident by high / low price noise. Cross pair prices settled March / April and allowed USD V Non to perform their movement tasks. Problem pair range noise means its time again for cross pairs to move once more as USD V Non become settled. Afterall, its been 3 months. Currency pair trade selection again is most vital as problem range pairs developed within the mix over the past 2 weeks.

The derivation to Statistical lack of consistency is caused by the Fed’s raise 3 weeks ago as prices then were knocked off intended price paths only to begin again. EUR/USD 3 weeks ago at 1.1720 contained an 1.1812 target but was knocked lower to 1.1500’s by the Fed’s raise. USD/CAD traded to 1.3400’s on a 1.2900’s target. GBP/USD traded 1.3000’s on a 1.3300 target.
If ever an opportunity existed to demonstrate Statistical Price Paths, its found in the past 3 weeks as target prices must fill intended obligations to then settle. From 1.1500’s, EUR/USD so far traded 1.1767, GBP/USD achieved 1.3290 and USD/CAD traded to 1.3076 lows. A Statistical Price Path offered and consummately offers greater opportunities.

Here’s the pairs to watch / trade for best moves, EUR/CHF, GBP/CHF, AUD/CHF and the commonality is CHF.

EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD and AUD/CAD against commonality to CAD. EUR/CAD is significantly out of sync. Watch Poloz this week closely.

GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD. Overall AUD/NZD is a horrible currency pair while recall in March the advice to not trade GBP/NZD as it was caught in a 1.9200 to 1.9500 range without clear trade signals to the 150 pip trade criteria.

EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD.

EUR/GBP remains and seems will retain status as problem for time immemorial and is a pair to not trade.

EUR/USD break point for higher /lower is located at 1.1807 to then target higher at 1.1862, 1.1925, 1.1932, 1.1977 and eventual 1.2087.

EUR/USD below main breaks are well supported at 1.1702, 1.1677, 1.1635 and 1.1545. Long only remains EUR/USD strategy.

USD/JPY’s higher /lower break point is located at 109.92 and lower is the objective to 109.22. USD/JPY must first break 110.47, 110.23 and 110.05. USD/JPY traded an 85 pip range from 111.13 to 110.28 and advice last week to refrain from trade in USD/JPY was correct. USD/JPY will continue to under perform.

USD/CAD break point is located at 1.3019 and lower targets 1.2970, 1.2951, 1.2903 and 1.2844. Short only remains the overall strategy.

AUD/USD break Point for higher/ lower is located at 0.7517 to target 0.7577 and 0.7633. Long only strategy remains especially at 0.7389 and any price below to target the break at 0.7517.

GBP/USD break point for higher / lower is located at 1.3407 to target higher at 1.3522 and 1.3623. Lower is supported at 1.3242 and 1.3196. Again, long only strategy is the way as GBP heads much higher from currency levels.

 

Brian Twomey

 

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EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Recall the short EUR/AUD trade in March from 1.6100’s to 1.5500’s inside a 2 month time frame. EUR/AUD actually ended in June at 1.5200’s and the rise to current 1.5800’s is the result from the 1.5200 lows.

At current 1.5800’s, EUR/AUD targets again 1.5500’s but this time the target is located at 1.5549. Longest term, EUR/AUD contains every ability to travel back to 1.5300’s. Along the way to 1.5500’s, break points are located at 1.5778, 1.5722, 1.5703, 1.5628 and 1.5611.

The strategy over the next months is sell any and all price rises until 1.5500’s achieve its destination. Any price rises is a bonus and only adds to shorts. The only manner to handle EUR/AUD is a short only strategy as longs are literally impossible. The March mistake was allow EUR/AUD to trade on its own to the 1.5500 target for roughly 300 pips per month. A sell only daily / weekly strategy pays far more until the 1.5500 target achieves.

A EUR/AUD short then explains how AUD/USD achieves its 0.7500 targets short term and 0.7800’s over the longer term. A EUR/AUD rise severely contains AUD/USD and prevents an AUD move higher.

EUR/NZD contains serious range problems because its moving averages are all in bad shape and lacks decent uniformity. Yet all vital averages are far overbought.

The vital break points are located at 1.7174, 1.7142, 1.7089 and 1.7016 then the longer range target is located at 1.6848 and 1.6737. The first short target is located at 1.7142 from current low 1.7200’s.

Above break points are located at 1.7412 and 1.7407. The EUR/NZD strategy is the replica of EUR/AUD to sell any and all rallies over the longer term to target 1.7016 then 1.6800’s.

Other pairs contian range problems similar to EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD and those pairs include USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD and AUD/CAD. In days ahead, I will take a view and post the problem pairs.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

EUR/USD ranged 191 pips last week from previously mentioned 1.1720 to 1.1529 against the target price at 1.1806. EUR/USD closed Friday at 1.1681 and 1.1655 last week, a 26 pip difference.

GBP/USD ranged 240 pips last week from 1.3291 to 1.3051 against the target price at 1.3367 and 1.3387. GBP/USD closed Friday at 1.3203 and 1.3258 last week for a 55 pip difference.

USD/JPY ranged 155 pips last week from 109.37 to 110.92 against the target price at 109.15 and 108.99. USD/JPY closed Friday at 110.66 and 109.97 last week for a 69 pip difference.

USD/CAD ranged 250 pips last week from 1.3383 to 1.3133 against the target price at 1.2980. USD/CAD closed Friday at 1.3133 and 1.3260 last week for a 127 pip difference.

AUD/USD ranged 117 pips last week from 0.7324 to 0.7441 against the target price at 0.7550’s. AUD/USD closed Friday at 0.7402 and 0.7440 last week for a 38 pip difference.

USD/CHF included this week closed Friday at 0.9906.

Target Price explanation. Previous years target prices not only hit exactly by math standards but targets reached destinations by price alignments. The system served well its purpose but it lacked deeper price information. The current system’s refinement to price targets is far superior because it reveals much more to price information, price relationships, next targets, settled prices, price speed, price changes, continuation, ranges, short V Medium V Long term targets and the list is literally endless. Most importantly, the current target structure captures perfectly the contemporary rules under the new market composition instituted by central banks 2 years ago. Any questions, see March / April 35 trades and 4000 ish pips.

EUR/USD target this week is located at 1.1802 on a break of 1.1702 and 1.1712 against the break point at 1.1811. Tough area here as a long rejection candle is easily achievable. A break of 1.1811 then targets next 1.1936, 1.1992 and 1.2086. Below long points to a long only strategy are located at 1.1630, 1.1638 and 1.1545.

USD/JPY break point at current 109.74 hardly changed in 3 weeks. Last week’s target at 109.15 and 108.77 achieved 109.37 then bounced to 110.94 and 30 pips above 110.68 sell point.

Overbought USD/JPY from previous 3 month contention to EUR/USD and USD is now in a battle of Statistics against itself. Higher to 112 relieves price pressures but higher means more overbought. Lower price pressures relieves at 104.
Lower targets 109.96 and break of 109.74 targets 109.54, 109.24 and 109.09. Higher targets 111.95. Good strategy is leave USD/JPY to trade another day as the longer term short is slowly building and this meets agreement to EUR/USD much higher. Overall, USD/JPY averages are falling against a rising price as the longer term range is located from high 112.00’s to 99.00’s, a 1300 pip range. Previous 113.00’s are now gone. USD/JPY’s resolution won’t solve itself well.

GBP/USD. Higher for GBP must break 1.3428 to target 1.3555, 1.3565 and 1.3638 then on to 1.3800’s. Target this week on a long only strategy is located at 1.3367 and 1.3383. Below long points begin at 1.3285, 1.3251 and 1.3214. GBP/USD 1.4100’s many times previously mentioned as longest term target was confirmed last week by Goldman Sach’s call for GBP/USD 1.4100. What’s 1.4100 in a 3100 pip range from 1.3200’s to the Brexit fall at 1.6300’s.

AUD/USD now achieved deeply oversold yet again but this week reveals oversold across the board. Break point is located at 0.7533 to target 0.7600’s and 0.7700’s. Longer term target remains now 0.7783 and down 47 pips since March 0.7830. Target this week remains at 0.7550’s.

USD/CAD’s price in the last 3 weeks rose to 1.3400’s against stasis averages and as USD/JPY, USD/CAD enters its own statistical abnormalities. CAD is far overbought and must trade lower. The target over 3 weeks remains now 1.2943, 1.2911 and 1.2900, 1.2823 on a break of 1.3027 and 1.3014. The overall CAD trade resembles the March/ April AUD/NZD example. We held to target AUD/NZD against a profit but AUD/NZD dropped to the same degree as the profit. Never a loss however but terrible entry.

USD/CAD remains a short only strategy especially above 1.3010. Here’s 2 prices, 1.3133 and 1.3203. Guess the pairs.

USD/CHF break point for lower at 0.9847 targets a mass of many and sustaining supports at 0.9700’s. Current supports at 0.9700’s was reported in March / April and hasn’t changed in 3 months. Higher to target 1.0130 is located at 1.0064. Look for shorts above 0.9939. From a daily perspective, USD/CHF sits at dead neutral and is the smarter position in relation to USD/CAD and USD/JPY.

Overall currency markets are within roughly 100 pips to break points/targets and the problem pairs as price drivers derives from USD.

 

Brian Twomey

 

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