USD Vs PLN, RON, BRL, HUF, TRY, MYR, DKK, HRK, CNY, ZAR

The Fed provided an enormous opportunity for USD/EM as USD/EM followed DXY lower over the past 4 weeks and traded to oversold extremes. The FED furnished the trigger for USD/EM to trade from deeply oversold to current overbought extremes.


USD/PLN for example traveled 2000 pips higher from 3.6391 lows to current 3.8375. Significant to USD/PLN is the break above the 5 year average at 3.8004. On Fed announcement Wednesday, USD/PLN traveled from 3.7149 to 3.8464 or a 3 day total of 1300 pips.


USD/BRL traded a 1 day total of 1276 pips from 4.9819 to 5.1095. Significant to USD/BRL on a larger scale is the current close at 5.0071 is the result of 1.5297 lows in 2011 to 5.9690 highs in 2020.


A true currency price cycle trend is a duration of 9 years and USD/BRL achieved highs exactly on the 9th year. As the last remainder of a true independent currency due to BRL’s price negotiated daily by Brazilian banks rather than a standard Fix for all currencies, USD/BRL should now embark on a 9 year downtrend.


USD/BRL short, medium and longer term is massively overbought. Higher must break 5.2271. For the week, USD/BRL is massively oversold, unlike its overbought USD EM counterparts and should trade to easily 5.0737.


USD/CNY from the close at 6.4531 sits barely above vital 6.4446. USD/CNY for the week trades to 6.4753 then 6.4855 or drops below to easily 6.4344. On a longer term basis, USD/CNY trades fairly neutral without any consequential upside or downside surprises. Neutrality is the result of severe range compression experienced over the last year. USD/CNY once traded 5 and 1000 pip days only to now barely trade 400 pip weeks.


USD/DKK from the close at 6.2682 traded 6.1285 lows to 6.2779 highs in 2 days or 1400 pips. Along the price path, USD/DKK broke the 10 year average at 6.2360. USD/DKK is not only overbought but surpassed normal mathematical overbought boundaries and should trade easily to 6.1835 against caution at 6.2360.


USD/HRK, the Croatian Kuna traded from massive oversold at 6.1659 to 6.3332 highs in 3 days or 1600 pips and broke above the 10 year average at 6.2946. While overbought for the week, USD/HRK trades safely above 6.2946 and 6.2311. A break of 6.2946 targets easily 6.2684 from the close at 6.3240.


USD/HUF not only traded from 282.78 lows May 31 to 300.76 highs on Friday or 1700 pips but USD/HUF broke above the 5 year average at 286.53 then vital 293.37. USD/HUF trades overbought yet well above 5, 10 and 15 year averages. A good weekly target is 297.38 and should achieve easily.


USD/MYR achieved 500 pip highs in 3 days last week from 4.1156 to 4.1446. The 5 year average approaches at 4.1640. From the close at 4.1390, USD/MYR targets 4.1224 and significant downtrend exists on a break of 4.1150.


Never a big mover for USD/MYR however its significance serves as a complement currency to USD/RON as both exchange rates begin with the number 4 in much the same way as the number 6 to start USD/CNY, USD/DKK and USD/HRK. USD/DKK and USD/HRK are the better movers to USD/CNY and USD/RON to USD/MYR. Traded overall are decimal points to the right side of the number 4 and 6 for each currency pair.


USD/RON traded from oversold at 4.0134 May 31 to Friday highs at 4.1595 or 1400 pips. The majority of the move began last Wednesday at 4.0564 to 4.1595 or 1000 pips. USD/RON is not only massively overbought but extraordinarily overbought from Mathematical limits. Good target is located at 4.0844 and should achieve its destination easily.


USD/TRY achieved 8.7605 highs Friday from February 16 lows at 6.8928 and a 5 day total of 4600 pips from 8.2981 to 8.7605. Shorts to target 8.5980 is easily achievable. Longer term, USD/TRY sits at Richter Scale overbought and contains a long way to far lower targets at 7.0000’s.


USD/ZAR exists nothing special except a fairly neutral currency and trades safely above the 5 year average at 14.3538 from the close at 14.3943. USD/ZAR is oversold and contains potential to trade higher to 14.4816 then 14.5840.

Brian Twomey

GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD Targets, DXY, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, JPY Cross Pairs

CHF/JPY as written targets 114.00’s and from 122.00 highs, profits run +300 pips. From the 119.49 close, 500 pips exists to target for an 800 pip trade. All JPY cross pairs are heading lower to include GBP/JPY as the break is located at 151.92. CAD/JPY is on the verge at 88.36 and much upside remains to USD/CAD as the opposite pair to CAD/JPY.


JPY cross pair strategy remains short as much downside exists.


Oversold EUR/USD not only enters price problem status to inform range troubles but massive lines exist below at 1.1716 and 1.1442. Above massive hurdles exist at 1.2032 and 1.2073.


Further range problem pairs include EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, EUR/NZD, AUD/NZD and EUR/AUD. For EUR/NZD is tracking closely to GBP/CAD. Note closes for EUR/NZD at 1.7101 and GBP/CAD 1.7201, a 100 pip separation. This current relationship cannot hold. GBP/CAD trades correctly but EUR/NZD remains massive overbought along with GBP/NZD. GBP/CAD will trade higher this week while EUR/NZD lower.


GBP/NZD target from last week holds at 1.9651 and EUR/NZD 1.6941.


GBP/USD broke 1.3985 and traded 108 pips lower but importantly, the 2000 pip price spread between GBP/USD and USD/CAD is now 1300 pips and remains far to wide. USD/CAD is the better trade especially when USD/CAD’s next massive line is located at 1.2865. USD/CAD contains much to wide ranges and ability to profit.


USD/JPY ranged 103 pips last week while USD/CHF roamed 273 pips and 353 for USD/CAD.

USD/CAD is the preferred trade as is USD/CAD’s normal. . USD/JPY for the week targets 110.63 and 110.70 then reverse short to 109.84 then 109.50.


GBP/AUD traded 253 pips last week to EUR/AUD 161. GBP/AUD will lead the way to the upcoming week.


Preferred trades this week for NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY and stand clear EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY.


Low price and oversold DXY traded 90.30 to 92.39 or 209 pips and 50 pips short of next big break at 92.89. Below exists 91.57 and 90.24. Overall brick walls remain at MA’s 94.00’s to 95.00’s.

Brian Twomey

JPY Cross Pair Allegiance Shift, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY and USD/CAD

The current trading week offered 3 major events significant to future trade weeks. The first is JPY cross pairs finally broke major levels lower. AUD/JPY broke 83.00’s, NZD/JPY broke 77.00, CHF/JPY 119.00’s, EUR/JPY 131.00’s.


CAD/JPY is next to break 88.46 and GBP/JPY at 151.95. Once CAD/JPY and GBP/JPY break lower then uniformity exist among JPY cross pairs and all currencies trade much lower. JPY cross pairs as reported over many months traded flat to neutral without much movement.

Possibly the word is consolidation however consolidation periods are messages to giant moves ahead. and usually to trade in the opposite direction. Maybe top is the operable term.


On a longer range perspective to consolidation and tops. The 2008 crash was seen many, many months prior as EUR/JPY and EUR/USD consolidated and topped for many months in 2007 while USD/JPY bottomed. Once the crash hit, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY traded miles lower while USD/JPY went miles higher.

Seen by Statistics in my 2015 paper yet Statistics is not necessary but it is the validation to tops and consolidation. Non movement alone over many months was the early warning.


The second event over this trade week was the reversal to USD and Non USD pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Previous, EUR/USD and Non USD pairs were overbought while USD pairs were deeply oversold. A wide divide existed between USD and Non USD pairs and it was a matter of time until the wide divide compressed.


Today, USD is now deeply overbought and Non USD massively oversold. The strategy moving forward is long non USD pairs and short USD. Previous and over the past year, the overall weekly trade strategy was reversed as long USD and short Non USD. Shorts to non USD such as EUR/USD moved far more than longs and profited much more.


The last momentous event was the role reversal to currency pairs. The role reversal is seen most specifically in cross pairs as cross pairs shift allegiance by Correlations. Prior to the 2008 crash, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY correlated +90% while USD/JPY Correlated -90% to EUR/JPY and remained the stand alone currency pair. Upon the crash, roles reversed as USD/JPY and EUR/JPY eventually Correlated +90% while EUR/USD became the stand alone currency pair to Correlate -90%.


Currency cross pairs must attach by Correlations to either USD or Non USD pairs and must trade within the bounds of USD and Non USD pairs. EUR/JPY for example must trade between EUR/USD and USD/JPY to normal trade environments. EUR/JPY as the middle positioned cross pair holds the balance between EUR/USD and USD/JPY.


The early warning such as 2007 and 2008 was for cross pairs and specifically EUR/JPY to leave the normal trade bounds and a rare day for currency markets and cross pairs because it takes many years for a cross pair to leave its normal trade boundaries, specifically 9 years from 1998 to 2007 and 13 years to present day from 2008.


In August 2008, EUR/USD traded 1.6100’s, USD/JPY 95.00’s and EUR/JPY at 169.00’s. Completely missed in the 2015 paper was EUR/JPY left the normal trade bounds. Certain Statistics held EUR/JPY within bounds and balanced while other Statistics informed EUR/JPY left boundaries.

The 2 premiere Statistics were Correlations and Co Variance to inform boundaries. And the best chart was Regression Residual Plots as a complement to boundaries by a picture.


The same rare situation exists today as JPY cross pairs left normal trade bounds and was forced to trade lower. The difference from 2015 to today is an eyeball view is required rather than a slate of Statistics.


A role reversal is seen in cross pairs because its the majority of the traded market and many more pairs exist. Cross pairs are now in shift mode to transfer allegiance to either USD or non USD. This means a much different market will trade over the next many years. An allegiance shift is a Correlational transfer as seen from EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY.


If EUR/JPY transfers correlation allegiances to EUR/USD and leaves USD/JPY then range expansion will exist over many years. Range compression exists when EUR/JPY Correlations allies with USD/JPY as was the case over last years.


The market term for this outline to cross pair allegiance shifts is Realignment. What Re aligns is cross pairs to USD and non USD.


Patience is required as correlational shifts take time to fully implement and to align Statistics yet big moves are ahead once fully implemented.


Shorter term by interest rates, daily EUR/JPY ranges trade wider than both USD/JPY and EUR/USD and has been the case for at least the past year or more. EUR/JPY daily upside targets are never traded to its daily maximum as daily maximums may never trade. Daily targets are traded to the next lowest daily level below maximum.


The USD Vs non USD divide to overbought and oversold is seen in daily ranges. Here, every traded pip truly matters. Oversold EUR/USD is known by range compression. A daily range compression is seen by possibly 1 or 2 pips but its the message to oversold and bottom is here.


The opposite exists for example is USD/CAD to experience range expansion. The 1 or 3 pips EUR/USD lost was gained by USD/CAD. This doesn’t mean USD/CAD will trade higher due to expanded ranges. it means the USD/CAD top is here and trade short while EUR/USD trades higher on range compression.


All non USD pairs lost daily range pips while all USD pairs gained range pips.


Currency markets and prices are Fixed to pips, ranges, entries and targets. This doesn’t mean the price is rigged as this is impossible. It means all trade information is fully known in advance.


Daily range compression or expansion is an early warning to the larger trade picture to bottoms, tops, oversold and overbought. Despite 1 , 2 and 3 pips spoken, pips truly matter as pips send market messages by a bull horn.


USD/JPY
5 vital numbers: 109.51, 109.63, 109.82, 110.34, 110.62


EUR/USD
5 vital numbers; 1.1843,1.1856, 1.1874, 1.1933, 1.1964


EUR/JPY
5 vital numbers: 130.35, 130.50, 130.82, 131.34, 131.58. Top and max 131.67.


USD/CAD
5 vital numbers: 1.2308, 1.2323, 1.2341, 1.2402, 1.2434.

Brian Twomey

Forex Headlines

From King of Trading crooks at fxstreet contributors, currency analysts and writers. The commonality to headlines says I don’t have a clue to markets, forecasts nor market prices and expectations. I’m just a writer taking up space or as the majority trade by charts and indicators and wrong placement of moving averages. Its a sad, sad day among traders today.

Nothing I can do unless traders subscribe. I assure all, our weekly trades ran perfectly and would’ve run perfectly, Fed or no Fed.

The Fed has renewed interest in the USD


Powell throws the market a curve-ball

USD lifts key resistance. The Resistance didn’t lift USD


My Favorites


Dollar soars on Fed’s dot plot shift


Fed surprises

All caught completely off guard

The FED Dot Plots are 5 year Median averages. The FED calls this Central Tendency. How much can a 5 year Median average possibly move in 1 and 2 months. Nothing and so as an indicator to anything, Dot Plots are completely meaningless.

Brian Twomey

Targets: CHF/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and FED

As posted Sunday, CHF/JPY short 122.70 and 122.81 to target 121.09. Highs achieved pefectly at 122.81 and lows at current 121.15. The trade runs 166 pips and 6 pips to target. The longer range target remains 114.00’s which means a short only strategy exists for the next months until 114.00’s trade. A short only strategy exists for all JPY cross pairs.


JPY cross pair leaders are EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY. Time is coming for overbought JPY cross pairs, especially against massive overbought and horrible currency USD/JPY. Sorry to inform yields don’t move USD/JPY but rather Commercial Paper rates predominantly.


In trading days long gone, the 2 and 5 year USD yield range moved USD/JPY.


Trader option was long CHF/JPY for 60 ish pips then short again at 122.81. Profits were then 226 pips instead of 166.


EUR/USD broke 1.2105 and traded lower and offered weekly trade shorts a few extra pips from yesterday’s Fed. Same for AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Yesterday was provided 0.7707 shorts for AUD/USD.


GBP/USD went directly to 1.3985 and dead stopped. The big winner for the past 2 weeks was USD/CAD at 1.2308 highs from 1.2056 last week or 252 pips. As written Sunday, USD/CAD has much more upside to trade. Correct and now 1.2305 decides USD/CAD fate for higher or lower.


GBP/NZD 24 hours offered 1.9868 to 1.9661 and the range held all week. Target remains 1.9661. GBP/NZD as the better trade to EUR/NZD sits massive overbought at 1.9794 and short is the only trade.


GBP/USD’s eventual target is 1.3500’s as written. Don’t ever lose sight of forecasts because 1 day or 2 week passes doesn’t invalidate targets.


See Gold written for example May 26. Short only strategy and short 1846.00’s and traded 1803 lows. Gold is a dead mover and can’t be helped.


EUR/USD 5 big numbers today are located at 1.1931, 1.1933, 1.1947, 1.2021 and 1.2053.
GBP/USD 5 vital numbers as follows: 1.3917, 1.3921, 1.3937, 1.4023, 1.4059.


Higher Inflation rates must be supported by higher Interest rates. Either interest rates rise quicker than anticipated or Inflation must drop. Fed headline at 0.25 doesn’t support Inflation at 2 and 3% nor fed Funds at 0.06. See relationships for Inflation and Interest rates since the 1970’s.

The interest rate must support Inflation. Or the Fed will destroy consumer purchases of vital goods.

Brian Twomey

Fed and Central Bank Interest Rates: EUR, AUD, NZD, TRY, CAD

Overnight Fed rates held 0.06 daily since April 29th then 0.07 ruled daily markets from February to April and 0.08 from January to February. Fed Funds at 0.06 trades below Canada’s Corra at 0.19, below AUD and RBA at 0.10, miles below NZD and RBNZ, Below EUR and the ECB at 0.51, light years below BOJ and JPY at 0.96, below BOE and GBP at 0.04.


Here’s your evidence to a low, oversold and dead mover USD and DXY. The RBA and AUD rates trades 4 points, BOJ and JPY trades 4 points, RBNZ and NZD won’t move, BOC and Canada trades 6 points. Extremely rare day for the RBNZ to not move but they joined the no movement interest rate gang of central banks.


The ECB’s Eonia rate trades today the exact same rate as January 1. The ECB spreads interest rates an extraordinary 78 points. This is called contain EUR/USD movements as normal ECB is about 15 points and EUR moves. Its far worse for the Fed but enough to contain USD and DXY. USD means any and all USD pairs to include EM.


Here’s your evidence to dead currency and all market prices.


A Fed raise 1/2 or 0.25 point to 0.50 means 0.06 goes to 0.18 and then becomes competitive to all central banks yet still low. If Central banks wish to maintain current interest rate distance to the FED then all central banks must move then own interest rates. If central banks refuse to raise or move interest rates then currency price ranges will surely compress further as intrest rate distances constrict.


Literally all eyes on the FED as leader of interest rates and currency price moves. The job of central banks is to position interest rates competitive to the FED yet enough to restrict currency price movements.


AUD and RBA for example before the drop to 0.10, positioned RBA interest rates at exact opposite to Fed Rates. As RBA rates are so drastically low, the RBA lacks the same opportunity as rates are near zero. The typical RBNZ operation is it sets Interest rates in wide bands to stop NZD movements, much the same as the ECB is doing currently. Pretty much the same for the BOE and GBP.


Yet the latest for the BOE is move daily interest rates by moving slightly the decimal point. If yesterday’s rates traded 0.0467 then today’s rates move 0.0469. Essentially no movement and GBP trades dead.


Here’s the catch to raise Fed Rates. To taper or restrict the overall balance sheet then 0.06 as the overnight rate should trade higher naturally as interest rates and money supplies shares and must share an adverse relationship. But an 0.08 move for the overnight rate won’t see a difference to currency price moves. We need a substantial difference to rates to experience not only better daily, weekly and monthly moves but good volatility again.


Trades


EUR/USD must break 1.2105 to travel lower. The 5 vital numbers are located at 1.2066, 1.2071, 1.2087, 1.2156 and 1.2187.


AUD/USD 0.7704 decides higher to 0.7730 or lower to 0.7752. USD/CAD’s 5 vital numbers today 1.2119, 1.2125, 1.2142, 1.2212, 1.2243.


Last week USD/CAD target at 1.2201 achieved 1.2203 from 1.2056.


EUR/USD and USD/CAD contain the same exact same movements as well as support and resistance points.


GBP/NZD weekly trade from short 1.9771 to target 1.9661 traded to 1.9695 lows or + 76 pips and EUR/NZD traded +51 pips.


CHF/JPY from short from 122.70 and 122.81 achieved exactly 122.80 highs and lows to 122.26 for +54 pips.


USD/TRY 5 vital numbers for today 8.4963, 8.5070, 8.5177, 8.5605, 8.5819.

Brian Twomey

USD/TRY Day Trade

A written for yesterday day trade, USD/TRY top was located at 1.4049 and USD/TRY traded 8.4094 then dropped 191 pips to 8.3892 and consistent to trades at 200 pips on 400 ish daily pips.


Only 5 vital numbers apply to today’s USD/TRY day trade as follows: 8.4485, 8.4591, 8.4697, 8.5122 and 8.5335.

USD/TRY massive overbought and at current 8.5815 contains a long way to drop not only a day trade but weekly, medium and longer terms.

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD 1.3985 Vs EUR/GBP 0.8659

At week’s beginning, GBP/USD not only closed at 1.4110 but above vital 1.3985. While EUR/USD broke below 1.2111, NZD/USD 0.7176 and AUD/USD at 0.7707, GBP/USD as the outlier sat above 1.3985. GBP/USD lower must break 1.3985 and 1.3985 is located right around the 100 day average at today’s correct 1.3960.


A total of 4 times in the last 2 months, we’ve seen EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD break below vital averages and GBP/USD remains trading above. EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD always recovered and traded higher. What forced EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD higher was deeply oversold EUR/CHF, AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF.


EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD were unable to sustain lower levels against not only oversold CHF but a non compliant GBP/USD. GBP/USD must not only break 1.3985 but GBP/CHF must trade below 1.2632 to lend confidence to EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD vital breaks.
Currency markets not only requires conformity but concurrence lacks among many currency pairs in the present trading environment. More divergence exists currently rater than compliance. And many examples exist.


AUD/USD below 0.7707 and EUR/AUD below at 1.5713. This divergence can’t hold and explains EUR/AUD higher today. GBP/AUD traded above 1.8150 while EUR/AUD below 1.5713. More divergence that can’t hold.


Holding up GBP/USD to move lower and break 1.3985 is EUR/GBP at most important 0.8660. Current EUR/GBP is not only deeply oversold but EUR/GBP is a USD pair and Correlates to GBP/USD at -95%. A higher EUR/GBP represents a lower GBP/USD. Once EUR/GBP breaks 0.8659 then uniformity exists again to EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD to not only break lower but sustains to trade much lower levels.


EUR/GBP for today’s day trade until 10:00 AM EST contains 5 vital points 0.8546, 0.8568, 0.8579, 0.8612 and 0.8634. Its a matter of time before EUR/GBP breaks higher from 0.8659.
GBP/USD to match EUR/GBP 0.8634 then lower levels are located at 1.4048, 1.4058 and 1.4074 and 1.4083.


Once GBP/USD achieves lower levels, it trades higher and lower for EUR/GBP.
EUR/GBP on a weekly trade must break 0.8639 and 0.l8649 to challenge 0.8659 and higher to 0.8720 then 0.8740.


The better trade however is GBP/USD instead of EUR/GBP due to GBP/USD more expansive ranges EUR/GBP.


Overall averages for GBP/USD point lower while EUR/GBP averages point directly higher. EUR/GBP 200 day average is located at 0.8755 and 0.8628 at the 50 day average.

Brian Twomey

USD/TRY Day and Long Term Target Trades

USD/TRY Vs EUR/USD Correlations currently run +86% and up from +60% about 1 month ago. EUR Vs USD correlations running extremely high together cannot hold as this relationship must and will break wide open.


USD/TRY Day Trade


5 vital numbers for today’s trade as follows: 8.3211, 8.3315, 8.3420, 8.3839 and 8.4049. While weekly ranges are running this week at 3,000 pips, day trades break down to roughly 400 pips.


USD/TRY Long term


USD/TRY longer term is massively overbought and should trade 7.000’s easily. On a much longer term basis, USD/TRY contains a target at 6.3300’s.


A short only strategy is the only trade available. USD/TRY sits above 2 vital points: 8.2602 and 7.0461. Currently 8.2602 is oversold while 7.0451 is overbought as well as averages below 7.0461 down to 2.000’s.


USD/TRY sits comfortably above 5 and 10 year averages at 5.2807 and 3.7308 yet overbought.

Brian Twomey

Weekly Trades and FX Commentary: EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD, CHF/JPY, USD/TRY

USD/CAD target last week at 1.2201 achieved 1.2176 from the BOC lows on Wednesday at 1.2056 or 120 pips. The target at 1.2201 will complete this week and much more upside to go.
DXY traded 77 pips last week from 89.83 to 90.60 and barely broke above vital 90.24.

Low and oversold DXY contains a long way to the brick wall at 95.00. This means all currency pairs as USD/Other Currency to include EM also contains a long only strategy for at least another 400 pips higher.


As EURUSD completed upside and downside targets last week, 1.2134 as written was a huge number due to its proximity at 1.2111. EUR/USD choices was travel to 1.2174 or break 1.2111 and trade lower. As lower bound currencies NZD/USD broke 0.7176 and AUD/USD 0.7707, EUR/USD lacked the option to trade higher and instead broke 1.2111 and traded 20 pips lower.


EUR/USD last 4 week close prices averages 1.2160 and 1.2172 as a median. EUR/USD closed at 1.2107 and 53 pips from its average. EUR/USD closed last week at 1.2165, traded 52 pips to 1.2217 then 73 pips below 1.2165 to 1.2091.


As written January to yearly forecasts upon long term views, the price slowdown and dead ranges anticipated remains into current June. Expect more of the same for the next months.
Yet go back and read the central bank 2016 research to currency price changes and revealed is currency prices are trading as forecast by central banks. The slowdown to prices is exactly what central banks designed. The BOE is best to read due to the full details explained.


Currency prices were not only massively re scaled but the only chances to profit is by economic announcements yet off snyc announcements will offer only a few pips more but overall prices are contained within the new price structure.


A central bank may inform the economy is crashing yet its worth 20 extra pips. Interest rate changes are worth 40 pips. The BOC last Wednesday offered 30 pips. The difference between 1 and 2% Inflation is meaningless.


Knowing the 2016 changes and the January price slowdown, an extensive adjustment began to trades and strategies to allow longs and shorts for daily and weekly trades as demonstrated many times. EUR/USD ranged last week overall 126 pips but we profited much more than 126 pips.
The least of trader worry and concern is economic announcements especially longer range economic views.

No need exists anymore to run economic data as this information exists within the price. Plus economic announcements are linearly scaled so an off sync announcement today is meaningless to the longer run term. The market price doesn’t care about long term views nor does it hardly care about daily off snyc announcements.


Only 2 factors move the currency price: Interest rates and money supplies and each share an inverse relationship. But never reported. Yet the long winded daily and weekly scribbles in regards to economics is nothing more than pablum and won’t earn 2 cents.


The winners in currency markets was EM currencies as USD/OTHER CURRENCY. USD for EM was hit hard over the past 3 weeks and al skyrocketed last week. USD/BRL for example flew from 5.0100 lows to 5.1400’s. USD/BRL is one example of many EM currencies to trade 1000’s of pips higher.


GBP/NZD


GBP/NZD Correlations to GBP/USD now run +93% to GBP/USD and -94 to USD/CAD. GBP/NZD transformed from a USD pair to current GBP. GBP/NZD is skyrocket overbought to begin the week.


EUR/NZD


EUR/NZD is also massively overbought and Correlations to EUR/USD run -0.08 and -61% to NZD/USD. NZD/USD is richter scale oversold and heading higher this week.


GBP/NZD Weekly Trade


Short Anywhere or 1.9771 to target 1.9610. Must cross 1.9752, 1.9733, 1.9714, 1.9695, 1.9676, 1.9657, 1.9638, 1.9619.
Long 1.9610 to target 1.9659.

Not only a weekly trade but offered levels to watch the trade unfold or to take profits when satisfied.


EUR/NZD Weekly Trade


Short Anywhere or 1.6984 and 1.6978 to target 1.6896. Must cross 1.6978, 1.6961, 1.6945, 1.6928, 1.6912 and 1.6904.


Short below 1.6879 to target 1.6813.
Long 1.6813 to target 1.6863.
Long 1.6896 to target 1.6945.


USD/TRY


USD/TRY Short 8.4928 and 8.5120 to target 8.3002.
Giant ranges this week for USD/TRY


Next 24 Hours 8.4388 to 8.3402


Short tops and long bottoms for quick and easy pips to cover next 24 hours.
Weekly Ranges 1540 pips, 0.0770 and 0.0385


CHF/JPY


Short 122.70 and 122.81 to target 121.09
Option exists to long to target 122.70 then short to 121.09


Overall JPY cross pairs remain fairly neutral as seen over the past 3 and 4 weeks.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and USD/CAD Weekly Trades and Next Week Trade Scenarios

As written Sunday and reiterated today, EUR/USD short 1.2214 and 1.2224 to target 1.2134. EUR/USD achieved 1.2217. Short 1.2214 and 1.2224 achieved 1.2142 lows.


Weekly trade options were long anywhere Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday. Once targets are established, entry becomes secondary. From EUR/USD lows Monday at 1.2144 to 1.2117 factors + 73 pips. Then short 1.2217 to 1.2134 dead stopped at 1.2142 +75 Pips.


Total 2 trades +148 pips.


Next weekly trade option. Short 1.2214 and 1.2224 to target 1.2134. Dead stopped 1.2142. One trade +75 pips.


Day traders added to weekly trades from either 148 or 75 pips by profit from day trades as extra added pips while waiting for weekly targets. Traders not interested in day trades set entries and targets and lived a comfortable life outside of markets as none were subjected to long winded articles or loser trades that said nothing nor earned 1 pip after completion.


The target at 1.2134 holds into this trade day however as Friday is here and new trades are sent Saturday, traders will exit for profit for all shorts.


Today’s most vital 5 numbers for EUR/USD: 1.2127, 1.2136, 1.2150, 1.2220 and 1.2251.


Today’s close is expected at 1.2152.


For next week, same strategy as either long to target then short or short at target to the next target. Weekly trades run target to target in order to trade and profit continuously all week.
Vital levels next week are 1.2188 and 1.2224. On a close at 1.,2152 then vital levels become 1.2183 and 1.2218. On a close at 1.2134 then vital levels become 1.2180 and 1.2215.


EUR/USD averages are moving against longs and dropping so then overall strategy is short.


USD/CAD


Target at 1.2201 achieved highs at 1.2124 from 1.2056 weekly lows. Entry anywhere Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday profited. The close is expected at 1.2049 and a 100 pip spread from EUR/USD’s close.

Longs next week will run under 1.2145 and target around 1.2196 to 1.2211.


From low to high priced currencies: NZD/USD ranged 76 pips from 0.7240 to 0.7176 while EUR/USD traveled 73 pips from 1.2144 to 1.2117.


EUR/USD and NZD/USD correlations run +86% and not terrible.


DXY remains dead and oversold at 90.00’s yet 500 upside pips to vital brick wall at 95.00;s exists. See USD/CAD as long only strategy.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and USD/CAD Trade Results

As written Sunday and reiterated today, EUR/USD short 1.2214 and 1.2224 to target 1.2134. Then 3 days later, EUR/USD achieved 1.2217. Note EUR/USD dead stopped on the way down at reported 1.2174.

The target remains 1.2134 then EUR/USD is challenged to break 1.2114 or rise to next target at 1.2174 which means we are short again for next week.


EUR/USD’s day trade complied to the weekly target for extra pips and many more during the week while waiting for EUR/USD’s target.


Knowing the EUR/USD target at 1.2214 and 1.2224, the weekly trade option was long anywhere during the week then short at 1.2214 to target 1.2134. EUR/USD lows this week achieved at 1.2144 then long to target 1.2214 profited 70 pips and short 1.2214 profited so far 40 pips for a total profit of 110 pips and running.


And this is the way it goes every week for 18 currency pairs and without failure using pen, paper and calculator.


USD/CAD’s weekly target 1.2201 on a break of 1.2179, 1.2184 and 1.2199 achieved 1.2116 . .
Despite a 36 pip miss to USD/CAD weekly entry, USD/CAD lifted again from 1.2056 today to trade 60ish pips to 1.2116 for the day trade.

USD/CAD remains deeply oversold for the weekly trade while the day trade today was actually a serious underperformer.
Not only will USD/CAD longs next week persist as usual but USD/CAD remains in the routine as day trades.


Range compression next week looks like another guarantee. Despite range compression for the past 4 weeks, overall weekly trades are actually running perfectly as this period is a great timer to hit trades.

Brian Twomey

Brian Twomey WRHI Palmetto Mornings

I’m scheduled to appear at 8 AM EST Tomorrow with Patti Mercer and Lucas McFadden on WRHI Palmetto Mornings to discuss the Election of 1870. This station is the only radio and TV station serving the community yet it is extremely popular to the community on many fronts. It truly serves the community and run by very decent people.

To Listen Live and past recordings

http://www.wrhi.com/programming/palmetto-mornings

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/JPY and Political System

EUR/USD remains at 1.2201 highs and 16 hours later the lows at 1..2163 and 2 pips below the open at 1.2165. The weekly trade holds as follows: short 1.2214 and 1.2224 is located at 1.2134.
EUR/USD big decision from 1.2134 is either break 1.2114 to travel lower or trades higher to 1.2174.


EUR/USD day trade today again contains 5 vital numbers: 1.2119, 1.2124, 1.2141, 1.2210 and 1.2241. The topside changes by 1 pip and bottom by 3 pips since yesterday and essentially no change.


EUR/USD traded dead this week however 2 days remain until Friday. The weekly trade may or may not materialize but that’s why 18 currency pairs trade every week and day trades to profit extra pips.


While EUR/USD traded dead, USD/CAD and EUR/USD exact opposite has been on the move. From the weekly open at 1.2068, USD/CAD traded 1.2057 to 1.2117 highs or 60 pips in 72 continuous hours of trading. EUR /USD traded 1.2144 to 1.2201 or 57 pips.


USDS/CAD’s weekly target remains at 1.2201 on a break of 1.2179, 1.2184 and 1.2199 however no entry exists as entry missed by 36 pips. No problem here as we go short at 1.2201 to target 1.2061 and 1.2051.


USD/CAD day trade only 5 vital numbers for today: 1.2045, 1.2050, 1.2063, 1.2136 and 1.2167.
A higher or lower USD/CAD translates to a higher or lower GBP/JPY due to negative and opposite correlations and a fairly permanent condition for the GBP/JPY and USD/CAD relationship.


GBP/JPY 5 vital numbers today as follows: 154.17, 154.23, 154.55, 155.34 and 155.73.
Noted for Gold as posted May 26, short strategies only. Gold achieved lows so far at 1855 from 1918 highs or 63 points. EUR/GBP in the same 7 day period traded 0.8644 to 0.8565 or 79 pips.


Economics Vs Politics


While lazer beam focus on economics, I suggest the political system and policies serves as more sound forward guidance . Clinton 1990 manipulations of the 1978 Community Reinvestment Act guaranteed a house and market crash in 2008 by forced lending to potential home owners without a means to repay.


History dates market crashes and massive sell offs to Railroads in the 1800’s by government Railroad loan guarantees and led to government intervention, stock manipulations, bribery to political representatives and overbudgets to extremes.


Democrats now target companies not practicing social justice to haul in front of Congress. Democrats will seek control of these companies with a larger goal to nationalize all major companies and operate under government and harsh government rules. Yesterday was Mattel in front of Congress. More will come for ridicule, destruction and forced big donations to the Democrat Party. Its a stick up.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD: Day Trade and Long Term Targets

The commonality to Inflation, NFP, ISM, ZEW is once the release occurs then the market price reacts to comport to daily and weekly trades and targets. After the release, the news is old, meaningless and doesn’t deserve attention from a trade perspective because the day trade covered the event and the price is then located within the market. The price no longer cares about past events and literally minutes after the release.


How can a market price today care about an event yesterday, 2 days and 1 week ago.
The trader must then look forward to the next news event rather focus on the past as prior events won’t assist to today’s trades. As day, weekly and long term trades are known in its entirety from vital supports, resistance, entries and targets, the next news event is completely covered for an as expected and off sync release.


The news event becomes secondary to the current price yet it facilitates to assist to movements so to enter and profit from trades.


Taper by central banks is a speculation and not known to actually taper, not taper and amounts. A market price doesn’t know nor speculate to such events as a market price lacks details to trade the event and to price taper into the overall price. When Taper is or if ever announced then the day and weekly trade has the trades perfectly covered. Taper then becomes meaningless 2 minutes after the release and never a need to mention again.


A central bank meeting holds the same parameters as a news event. What central banks say or do is meaningless as the price and trade is known prior to the announcement. The market price then moves forward and to its next destination upon release.

2 minutes after the central banks announces then the event becomes meaningless as the price no longer cares about past events.


A market price spends the vast majority of its time in neutral or a neutral zone as it awaits input to move. Without input, the price can’t and won’t move. What does a neutral price say to NFP from 3 days ago. A market price begins trade in neutral and ends at neutral.


EUR/USD


Weekly short from 1.2214 and 1.2224 achieved 1.2201 and dropped 38 pips to 1.2163. EUR/USD achieves 1.2214 and 1.2224 today on a break of 1.2209. EUR/USD opened the week at 1.2165 and traded 36 pips higher and 38 pips lower. Now the price sits at neutral and waits for input to move. NFP is gone to the current price.


Longer term vital points are located at 1.2020, 1.2028, 1.2040, 1.2109, 1.2178, 1.2247, 1.2317, 1.2386 and 1.2456.
EUR/USD day trade today requires focus on 5 numbers, 1.2240, 1.2209 and below 1.2143, 1.2127 and 1.2116.


Downside and upside prices are 2 vastly different stories and each has its own special calculation as each are not factored the same. What is seen by the human eye is deceptive.


The news event will drive prices to the exact points today.

Brian Twomey

EUR/EM Vs USD/EM

The EM story for the past 4 weeks experienced a massive drops to EUR/EM and USD/EM. EUR was employed as the example however the same situation exists as AUD/EM, NZD/EM, and GBP/EM Vs USD/EM counterparts. if one currency pair is affected then the entire universe experiences the same outcome due to the deep interconnection to currency prices across the world.


Both EUR/EM and USD/EM not only trade below respective high/low points but EUR/EM and USD/EM are massively oversold. The entire structure of EM positions are not only far off base but to normalize EUR Vs USD requires trading on opposite sides of high/ low points. This requires hefty movements by either EUR or USD due to the massive distances both traveled to achieve such oversold status.


How such a circumstance occurred is found in the massive trading ranges of EM currencies. Both EUR/EM and USD/EM travels a far greater distance to a DXY/ USD and/or EUR/USD rise and fall. EUR/USD for example may trade 100 pips but EUR/EM will trade 4 and 500 pips.


Note EUR/EM higher numbered exchange rates to USD/EM. Possibly a 1998 EUR introduction to preserve EUR as a currency.


The problem however is localized on a smaller scale as both EUR/USD and DXY lacks range and movements. A 200 pip month for EUR/USD and DXY as seen in the past 4 weeks resulted in 1500 and 3000 pip movements for EUR/EM and USD/EM. Without running correlations, the assumption is EUR/EM and USD/EM are married closely to Correlations which means EM will experience a massive breakout to normalize again and excellent trade opportunities.


For the standard 9 currency pairs were viewed from monthly ranges, significant high/ low points, current prices and to overbought and oversold status.


EUR/BRL


Monthly range 6.9983 to 6.1395 or 8588 pips. Current price 6.1354 and oversold from 6.4451.


USD/BRL


Monthly range 5.8752 to 5.0312 or 8440 pips. Current price 5.0466 and oversold from 5.3218.


Both EUR/BRL and USD/BRL experienced near equal pips to drops.


EUR/HRK


Monthly range 7.6100 to 7.4951 or 1149 pips. Current price 7.5014 and oversold from 7.5325


USD/HRK


Monthly range 6.4623 to 6.1257 or 3376 pips. Current price 6.1687 and oversold from 6.2188.


USD/HRK dropped 3 times to EUR/HRK and USD/HRK the better long trade.


EUR/HUF


Monthly range 369.48 to 346.72 or 2376 pips. Current price 345.71 and oversold from 353.70.


USD/HUF


Monthly range 310.38 to 283.20 or 2718 pips. Current price 284.42 and oversold from 292.86.


Near equal selloff to a fairly neutral currency pair.


EUR/MYR


Monthly range 4.8452 to 5.0808 and rise 2356 pips. Current 5.0188 and overbought from 4.9866.


USD/MYR


Monthly range 4.0460 to 4.1594 or rise 1134 pips. Current price 4.1280 and overbought from 4.1153.


EUR/MYR better long as trade to USD/MYR traded 2 times.


EUR/PLN


Monthly range 4.6797 to 4.4480 or 2317 pips. Current price 4.4603 and oversold from 4.5106.


USD/PLN


Monthly range 3.9835 to 3.6401 or 3434 pips. Current price 3.6670 and oversold from 3.7240.


Long USD/PLN.


EUR/RON


Monthly range 4.8686 to 4.9419 or + 733 pips. Current price 4.9223 and overbought from 4.9112.


USD/RON


Monthly range 4.2012 to 4.0152 or 1860 pips. Current price 4.0483 and oversold from 4.0545.


Long USD/RON.


EUR/TRY


Monthly range 8.5634 to 10.7092 or +2.1458 pips. Current price 10.4861 and overbought from 9.9683.


USD/TRY


Monthly range 7.2072 to 8.7763 or 1.5691 pips. Current price 8.6273 and overbought from 8.2269.


EUR/TRY short better trade.


EUR/ZAR


Monthly range 18.4895 to 16.3081 or 2.1814 pips. Current price 16.3751 and oversold from 17.2252.


USD/ZAR


Monthly Range 15.5767 to 13.4357 or 2.14 pips. Current price 13.4826 and oversold from 14.2252.


EUR/CNY


Monthly range 7.8774 to 7.6804 or 1970 pips. Current price 7.7761 and neutral to oversold from 7.8098.


USD/CNY


Monthly range 6.5758 to 6.3603 or 2155 pips. Current price 6.3970 and break 6.4476.


CNY is a fairly neutral currency pair.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly Commentary: EUR/USD, DXY, USD/CAD

EUR/USD’s big line break as reported last Sunday was 1.2240 and EUR/USD traded to 1.2254 on Tuesday then dropped Thursday to 1.2163 for 91 pips. EUR/USD then bounced on NFP Friday from the 1.2105 support and traded to 1.2184 and 16 pips past our 1.2166 target.


USD/CAD from NFP dead stopped at 1.2071 and 10 pips from reported 1.2061 and held the 1.2183 to 1.2061 range while DXY dropped from 90.53 to 90.12 and held the 90.05 to 90.97 range. NFP trades were known 6 hours before the release. for 8 currency pairs. NFP facilitated the trades as the release was located inside the price.


While lazer beam focus on NFP for a 69 pip EUR/USD move, EUR/USD Thursday dropped 71 pips and without attention given. NFP long ago lost its credibility as a major event particularly as releases holds the vital 50,000 range as NFP did last Friday. Outside of the 50,000 range only then would prices trade more than its traditional 50 and 60 pips.


EUR/USD closed this week at 1.2165, last week at 1.2190 and 1.2180 three weeks ago. EUR/USD last month traded 200 pips from 1.1991 to 1.2200’s while DXY traded 200 pips from 89.00 to 91.00. EUR/USD last week traded 148 pips while DXY traded 96 pips from 89.67 to 90.63.


The FX story for the past 4 weeks to range compression is located within the EUR/USD and DXY relationship and the problem is low and oversold DXY as DXY traded within the context of vital 90.24 and hasn’t strayed far enough to allow other currency pairs to move significantly. The only winners to big moves was wide rangers GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD and GBP/AUD as all traded 3 and 400 pip weeks.


EUR/USD vital high/ low break this week is located at 1.2114 while DXY closed at 90.13 and 9 pips from 90.24.


Last week’s EUR/USD 1.2240 is now 1.2234 and a 6 pip drop from 1.2240. Overall averages are moving against EUR/USD to move higher however slowly. Below 1.2114 targets 1.2054 and 26 pips short of EUR/USD’s next big break below at 1.2028 and 1.2020.


The target from short 1.2214 and 1.2224 is located at 1.2134. EUR/USD big decision from 1.2134 is either break 1.2114 to travel lower or trades higher to 1.2174.
USD/CAD matches EUR/USD from long 1.2029 and 1.2021 to target 1.2201 on a break of 1.2179, 1.2184 and 1.2199.


GBP/USD and USD/CAD as the only currency pairs beside wide rangers to maintain ability to move far and wide yet neither pair has shown any performance to move significantly. USD/CAD ranged last week 125 pips to GBP/USD’s 150. A larger move for USD/CAD is located above 1.2305 and GBP/USD below 1.3975. Both would benefit if EUR/GBP breaks higher at 0.8670 then USD/CAD trades higher and GBP/USD lower.


JPY cross pairs again begins the week at neutral to overbought and caught between the EUR/USD and DXY movement problem. USD/JPY closed within 100 pips of its big point for lower at 108.43.


Overall, yet another range week ahead.

Brian Twomey