EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY and Realignment

The topic of rarely seen currency market Realignment was addressed before but EUR/JPY contains its best shot to break below 124.06 and force Realignment. Why EUR/JPY is because its most widely traded, it contains, as most currency pairs, 2 opposites and because currency markets are defined by cross pairs as many more exist than the 7 major pairs. Further, Cross pairs actually and traditionally run and define currency markets.

For 28 major currency pairs to include the USD V Non USD majors then 376 combinations exist. Subtract for example EUR/USD and USD/EUR then 14 pairs from the majors must subtract from 376 to define total currency market cross pairs as 362 cross pairs.

Realignment is defined periodically as a shift in currency pair focus every 10 to 12 years within any 50 year market period. From 1998 to 2008, EUR and risk on defined the period as EUR/USD climbed from 1.0000’s to 1.3900 and EUR/JPY from 110.00 to 169.00. USD/JPY traded at 110.00’s. Realigment hit in 2008 and EUR/USD dropped from 1.3900 to 1.0300, USD/JPY to 124.00 and EUR/JPY traded alongside USD/JPY but above 10 year averages.

Realignment is a correlational shift from cross pairs to major pairs and cross pairs define the shift. Realignment can only be seen from cross pairs. EUR/USD trades below its 10 year average at 1.2600’s, EUR/JPY above at 124.06 and USD/JPY above at 99.00. EUR/USD not only lost its association to EUR/JPY but it lost its correlational association as well. EUR/JPY and USD/JPY above both 10 year averages means both share correlational associations.

EUR/JPY and USD/JPY above 10 year averages and EUR/USD below define the 2008 to current period as USD dominant. Traditional USD dominant periods experience less volatility, bout 500 to 1000 pips while EUR/JPY correlational attachment to its rightful owner EUR/USD experiences higher volatility, bout 1000 pips higher. See 2015 EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, EUR/USD academic paper and Residual plots for a picture to pip boundaries from 1998 to 2008 and 2008 to 2015.

EUR/USD as the major pair must include to any realignment because Europe and the United States are complete opposite political and economic systems in yields, interest rates and economic prosperity. One side wins as the other side loses. But currency pairs are also opposites and again only one side can win while the other loses.
EUR/JPY must drop below 124.06 then realignment is upon us. The current USD dominant currency market is 10 years old and its a matter of time before the market realigns and shifts.

Realignment means easily 1000 pip currency markets to re normalize prices in relation to 10 Y averages. 1000 pips means EUR/USD to 1.2600, GBP/USD to 1.3900’s, AUD/USD to 0.7800’s, NZD/USD to 0.7500, USD/JPY to 97.00, USD/CAD to 1.1400’s and the list goes on.

Realignment means long and short trades to last for years. Traders can transform from trader to long term investor. Trades are long term in relation to 10 year averages. The shift means cross pairs realign to major counterparts. Throw a dart at a currency pair then go long or short for a year or 2.

Trump is viewed as the catalyst because he’s normalizing a 30 year out of control political system. All nations will and are currently following Trump to normalization.

Free float now year 46, at 50 current period must end. its biblical leviticus 25, jubilee at 49 Y. EUR/JPY below 124.06 also means the last hurrah for currency trading as a complete new method will dominate the next 10 years. Happened every time since BOE 1694 creation.

 

Brian Twomey

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EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

 

 

The common theme in currency markets is volatility into the 4th quarter as it existed in the 2nd quarter is here and it demonstrates by the amount of trades and pips posted in the unrecognized March/ April period. 4th quarter volaitlity and number of great trades will exist as it did in quarter 2 and this volatility will also last for the entire quarter. Currency pair trade choices are always most vital as certain currency pair prices will out perfom others and because certain currency pair prices lead and lag each other.

Currency pair choices in the major pairs are 28 and this means 378 combinations of 2 or 378 currency pair selections to trade. The focus is always on the same old tired non mover pairs. EUR/USD is always a focus but this miserable currency pair lives in ranges for most of its trading life and rarely leaves it boundaries. When EUR/USD traded to 1.1800’s was the only time all year when EUR/USD contained a deviation worth trading as the deviation gap lacked any choice except to close to only then see EUR/USD back inside its same tired dead ranges. Vital to know specific range points in range trades or problems exist. Range pairs, EUR/USD specific, is always over forecasted.

USD/JPY or miserable currency pair number 2 trades all year at 200 pip break points from 104, 106, 108, 110. Now USD/JPY trades from its lower break point at 111.88 to 112.48. Its an untouchable currency pair especially above 112.48 and remains in ranges for months.

Opportunity is presented by a dead USD/JPY as the pre·eminence signal pair to JPY cross pairs is found in CHF/JPY. Know CHF/JPY then is known GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and anti’s AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY and NZD/JPY. Know CHF/JPY then is known 6 trades to include CHF/JPY. Know JPY cross pairs to its major counterparts as attachments then is known double trades in EUR/USD and EUR/JPY, GBP/USD and GBP/JPY, AUD/USD and AUD/JPY, USD/CAD and CAD/JPY, USD/CHF and CHF/JPY. Total 5 more trades are added from 6. Know currency pair relationships then is known currency pairs formed as economic documents.

GBP/USD on paper is the big mover currency pair but never lives to its billing. At 1.3900 exist the overall target as mentioned many times since March/ April. GP/USD will trade to 1.3900.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD are off kilter by at least 300 to 400 pips and this means both should trade 300 to 400 pips higher. Off kilter means EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD are running to wild volatility.

EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD are good examples to today’s volatility. EUR/AUD shorts from 1.6300 traded to 1.5900’s against a 1.5600 target. Took 10 days for EUR/AUD to drop to 1.5900’s and 3 days to trade back from 1.5900’s to 1.6300. This trade is the exact same trade taken in March / April from short 1.6400 to 1.5600 target. Trade took almost 7 weeks to complete the 1.5600 target in March / April then 4 months to trade back to 1.6300’s.

EUR/NZD short from 1.7800 to target 1.7200’s traded days later to upper 1.7400’s then bounced to 1.7800’s days later.

EUR/AUD. Break Point 1.6026. Driver to EUR/AUD is AUD/USD. Lower AUD/USD then higher EUR/AUD, higher AUD/USD then lower EUR/AUD. More specifically EUR/AUD is currently overbought, AUD/EUR severely oversold. Both AUD/USD and EUR/AUD are severely off range by easily 300 to 400 pips. This means AUD/USD must trade to 0.7300 to 0.7400 and EUR/AUD to 1.6026 break then 1.5835 and longer term 1.5600’s.

Strategy. Short any market price from the close at 1.6337 to target 1.6176, 1.6085, break at 1.6026 then 1.5835 and longer term 1.5611. Short only strategy means short tops.

Few traders are assisted with daily and long term trades and these longer term trades are becoming very popular as we’re trading 8 and 10 pairs at a clip. Contact if interested.

Break Points.

EUR/USD. 1.1680.

CHF/JPY 114.30.

GBP/JPY. 147.19.

GBP/USD 1.3150.

AUD/USD 0.7290.

EUR/CAD 1.5132.

USD/CAD 1.2956. See 1.2600 target written ad nauseam since March / April.

GBP/CHF 1.2881.

EUR/NZD 1.7463.

 

Brian Twomey

 

Currency Market Alignment V Realignment

Currency Market Realignment EUR/USD V EUR/JPY V USD/JPY  Normal currency market alignment exists when most widely traded EUR/USD and USD/JPY trade above and below market barometer, 10Y AVGS.

EUR/JPY is the outlier and currently trades above its 10Y at 124.62. EUR/JPY and USD/JPY then share positive correlations in risk off, USD favored markets while EUR/USD as the lone wolf trades below its 10Y at 1.2662 and negative correlates.

The lone wolf EUR/USD is always sold and long USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Alignments and Realignments are periodic and last for years. We’re in 4th and last Quadrant to 50 year Free Float.  Rarely seen Realignment occurs when EUR/JPY breaks below 10Y at 124.42, reattaches to its rightful position to correlate positive to EUR/USD and both begin a long multi year journey upward to trade above both its 10 year averages in risk on, USD negative markets.

USD/JPY becomes the lone wolf, loses EUR/JPY positive correlations to go negative and begins the long journey down to break its 10 year Avg at current 99.16. Alignment/ Realignments are wholesale market shifts, complete role reversals to currency pair positions and takes about 1Y to fully complete. 1998 and 2008 were last true alignments to understand time contexts to changes an rare events. my Paper stats, pics

 

 

 

Currency Market Alignment V Realignment
 Currency Market Alignment today, USD/CAD dropped, GBP/CAD dropped, EUR/CAD dropped, AUD/CAD dropped, Favored USD or Right side of currency Pair Equation,
In Realignment, Cross pairs rise or remain in range, favors left side of currency pair equation and to its rightful owners / positions.
Mathematically, Alignment / Realignment is a Correlational Shift but shifts based on currency pair locations / positions related to its respective Currency pair counterparts.
Historic barometer since 1972 free float for overall currency market is most widely traded EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR.JPY. Yet Correlations contain bottoms and tops, RHO for example so individual tops and bottoms assesses to question of start to finish in any currency pair arrangement. Smart traders would assess by interest rates or Forward Points per nation as interest rates see currency pair prices miles ahead. 

 

Brian Twomey   Contact   brian@btwomey.com

Fat Tails, Tail Risk

 

Found this on Linked In and deserves  special attention

 

What is ” Tail Risk ” (FAT TAILS) ? Tail risk is a form of portfolio risk that arises when the possibility that an investment will move more than three standard deviations from the mean is greater than what is shown by a normal distribution.

The concept of tail risk suggests that the distribution of returns is not normal, but skewed, and has fatter tails.

The fat tails indicate that there is a probability, which may be small, that an investment will move beyond three standard deviations.

Kurtosis is a statistical measure that indicates whether observed data follow a heavy or light tailed distribution in relation to the normal distribution.

The normal distribution curve has a kurtosis equal to three and, therefore, if a security follows a distribution with kurtosis greater than three, it is said to have fat tails.

Distributions that are characterized by fat tails are often seen when looking at hedge fund returns. Hedging against tail risk aims to enhance returns over the long-term, but investors must assume short-term costs.

 

Brian Twomey  Contact brian@btwomey.com

EUR/NZD V NZD/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

 

EUR/NZD break point for lower to target first 1.7047 then 1.6958 is located at 1.7127. A break lower at 1.7210 then comes the challenge to the 1.7127 break point. EUR/NZD rallies are targeted and meant to be sold especially at 1.7409 factored from the 1.7332 close.

The driver to lower EUR/NZD is deeply oversold NZD/USD. NZD/USD’s main break point for higher prices is located at 0.6852 and 0.6778. Higher above 0.6852 and the target location is 0.6963. NZD/USD break point at 0.6852 coincides to EUR/NZD at 1.7127 break and 1.7047 as first target. EUR/NZD at 1.6958 coincides to NZD/USD 0.6963. Over weeks and months,

Overall NZD/USD higher potential is quite astounding at 400 pips to the 0.6963 location but this is where NZD/USD targets and this is where its going. While EUR/NZD targets lower and sell rallies on a short only strategy, NZD/USD targets higher and buy drops on a long only strategy.

For the week, EUR/NZD targets lower at 1.7240 and caution at the main shortest break point at 1.7210. NZD/USD from its 0.6568 close targets first 0.6705 then 0.6778.

 

My trusted friend,  exquisite top brand name Watches, , Pocket Watches, Rings, luxurious, please have a look, Brian Twomey

 

Brian Twomey

USD/JPY: The Defensive Currency Pair

 

Not Complete

 

The USD/JPY question at the end of WW2 as USD/JPY was priced at 360.00 was how to sustain Japan and ensure viability to JPY. The answer was to price JPY to a correlation degree against the major pairs so to ensure JPY permanently remains a defensive currency pair. Most vital to defense and viability was place JPY as an implant to the majors. An insertion in the correct position ensures JPY survives and trades alongside major pairs but never becomes a leader currency pair. A few examples.
USD/CAD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF. Trading USD/JPY levels,ranges and targets are priced between USD/CHF and USD/CAD.
EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY

USD/CAD, USD/CHF, JPY Cross Pairs: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Since the volatility and 35 trades from the March / April period, prices for USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs settled except GBP/JPY to consolidate into smaller ranges for June and July. Reported miles ahead to price settlement in currency pair prices resulted in accurate warnings.

The clear losers in JPY cross pairs in order was NZD/JPY as March to July, prices roamed from 79.00 to 74.00 but June to July traded 200 pips from 74.00 to 76.

CAD/JPY traded 81.00 to 86.00 March to July then ranges restricted to 300 pips from 82.00 to 85.00 for June to July.
CHF/JPY as the perfect follower to USD/JPY traded 486 pips from March to July but traded 316 pips June to July from 113.26 to 110.10. Perfect tracker means USD/JPY closed at 111.45 while CHF/JPY closed at 111.63.

AUD/JPY traded 80.00 to 84.00 March to July but 380 pips June to July from 80.71 to 84.51.

The clear winners were EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY as EUR/JPY traded 890 pips from March to July at 124.62 to 133.52 but 528 pips June / July from 126.63 to 131.91. GBP/JPY traded 1000 pips from March to July 153 to 143 but 523 pips June / July from 149.24 to 144.01.

JPY cross pairs for deep consideration tor the week and BOJ Tuesday in order is GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY. GBP/JPY sits 300 pips within a 144.71 to 147.42 range and EUR/JPY within a 200 pips range from 129.08 to 130.45.

Stand clear of CAD/JPY as this pair contains deep range problems while AUD/JPY in 4 months ranges comfortably within its 82.00 to 84.00 intervals.

GBP/JPY range is located from 144.71 to the break point for higher at 147.42. Long on drops is the weekly strategy as GBP/JPY must trade to 146.15 and longer term target to 149.76. The 147.00’s won’t break easily this week as much resistance begins at 147.08, 147.36, 147.42 and 147.99. At 147.00’s represents the reversal zone to allow 147.00’s to break higher later,.

EUR/JPY Break point to target 131.00’s is located solidly at 130.45. EUR/JPY sits deeply oversold on massive supports from 128.08, 128.77, 128.56 and 129.40. A break of 130.45 targets 131.22 and 131.50’s. Above 131.50’s then short only strategy is the way forward. Overall, I wouldn’t marry a EUR/JPY trade but trade within the 128 to 130.00 range.

CHF/JPY is a fascinating currency pair and it should retain permanent adoption to any USD/JPY and JPY cross pair strategy alongside EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY.

CHF/JPY break point to target 112.20, 112.52 and later 113.48 is located at 112.01. The best target for the week on a break of 112.01 is 112.56. Below watch 110.59 as a good long to target again lower 112.00. Why long CHF/JPY is because USD/CHF is overbought.

USD/CHF Break point to target 0.9795, 0.9677 and 0.9661 is located at 0.9875. USD/CHF is driven lower by massive overbought from 0.9795 and 0.9677. Sell strategy is the way forward especially below 1.0128.

USD/CAD break point to target 1.2977, 1.2918 and 1.2858 is located at 1.3033. Above 1.3033, range becomes 1.3051 to 1.3173. USD/CAD remains 4 weeks later, a sell only strategy for the eventual break of 1.3033 and target to lower 1.2800’s.

 

Brian Twomey

 

My trusted friend, exquisite top brand name Watches, , Pocket Watches, Rings, luxurious, please have a look, Brian Twomey

FX Currency Pair Associations Part 2

 

CAD/CHF 0.7633

AUD/USD 0.7373

AUD/CHF 0.7356 Normally CAD/CHF runs with NZD/CHF

 

EUR/JPY 129.46

GBP/JPY 145.38, Outliers especially to AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY and NZD/JPY

 

NZD/JPY 75.23

AUD/JPY 81.98

CAD/JPY 85.02

 

USD/CHF 0.9945

AUD/CAD 0.9637, SNB Peg, AUD/CAD = Risk Pair

 

USD/CHF 0.9945

EUR/GBP 0.8843, USD Pairs, Different Prices

 

Brian Twomey

FX Currency Pair Associations

 

USD/CAD 1.3058

GBP/USD 1.3087

GBP/CHF 1.3056    Same Pairs, Same Prices, SNB Peg

 

CHF/JPY 111.45

USD/JPY 111.18 Same Pairs, Same price, SNB Peg

 

EUR/USD 1.1625

EUR/CHF 1.1597 Same Pairs, Same Price, SNB Peg

 

NZD/CAD 0.8843

EUR/GBP 0.8882 Same Pair, Same Price

 

CAD/JPY 85.07

AUD/JPY 81.98 Same pair, Different Price, Price normally runs together

 

EUR/AUD 1.5765

EUR/CAD 1.5193 Same Pair, Different Price, price normally runs together

 

GBP/CAD 1.7104

EUR/NZD 1.7179 Same Pair, Same Price

GBP/AUD 1.7748, Normally Same Pair, Different price

 

NZD/CHF 0.6750

NZD/USD 0.6765 Same Pair, Same Price

 

AUD/CHF 0.7356

AUD/USD 0.7373 Same Pair, Same Price

 

AUD/CAD 0.9631

NZD/CAD 0.8843, Same Pair, Normally Price Runs Together

 

AUD/NZD 1.0896 and GBP/NZD 1.9340  are Outlier Currency Pairs and lack associations, currently

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

 

 

GDP: Levels, Ranges, Targets

US GDP consensus forecast at 2.2 is extraordinarily light in terms of overall GDP averages spread over a 10 year period. Every average from 1 to 10 years sits dead on the floor and deeply oversold. The potential for a 3% and lower 4.0% GDP is easily achievable if not Friday then within reach of the next release.

The range of the overall averages begins at 1.90 and 1.98 to 2.65. The 2.2 forecast is located at the 1 year average and this location alone warns of a higher GDP. Typically, consensus predictions are seen when GDP is forecast from the 4 and 5 year averages. We’ve seen this many times before against prior written forecasts to NFP’s.

Targets range from 2.68 and 2.77 to 4.03 and 4.09. Why the wide variation is due to oversold averages and targets are points where the distribution of averages must align. This means targets must fulfill destinations and 4.0% is on the way.

The first realistic targets are located at 2.68, 2.77, 3.06 and 3.13. Note 2.68 as the first target surpasses the longest 2.65 average. A forecast above 2.65 then the averages will rise and GDP will later result in higher forecasts.

Last quarter, USD Dollar GDP increased a whopping 4.2% or $200 billion as overall Nominal GDP stands at $19.96 trillion. Overall Nominal GDP represents a nation’s wealth. What assist a far higher GDP over next quarters are Corporate profits and corporate profits are skyrocketing.

Overall, GDP is forecast higher than 2.2% to near 3.0%.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY, CAD, GBP, AUD, NZD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Week 3 of Statistical nightmares in cross pairs, year 46 from the 1972 free float and 2 years since central banks reorganized national interest rates, comes the question, how is the health of currency market prices.

Seen in current year 46 is traditional last 12 1/2 year operations as happened everytime in market last periods since the 1600’s: questionable economic experiments, crazy politics, uncertain price movements, crazy volatility, no trends and movements based on the latest daily words from central banks and political leaders.

Last period markets practice defense mechansisms to fight against the inevitable market period end to begin the next 50 year cycle. The next 12 1/2 period cycle traditionally experiences wonderful prosperity, normal markets and certain trends. The uncertain question is will markets transition into the new period as was the case in 1972 and 1944 Bretton Woods or by a market crash.

Politically as Presidents are creatures of the times for which we live, Trump I view as a transition president to right the wrongs from past decade presidencies as much as Harding, Coolidge and Hoover were transitional presidents to right the wrongs from Wilson and the Progressive Movements.

Rather than control the exchange rate directly as was past central bank practice, reorganize then Fix interest rates to small ranges contained the indirect effect to exchange rate control with the added benefit to skyrocket QE, money supplies. The reality to the past 2 year interest rate experiment is money supplies, interest and exchange rates are completely distorted and mis Correlated to actual normalized levels.

All central banks became masters of this confidence game, especially the ECB and explains EUR/USD’s 2 month range from 1.1500’s to 1.1700 but also reveals EUR cross pairs are most problematic in the G10 space because G10 nations are interest rate based as opposed to Repo Rates in EM markets. But further to the ECB’s innate ability to control its interest rates.

Cross pairs became the victims to the new interest rate schemes as they find themselves stuck against deep range problems. The usual suspects remain EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP and added is EUR/CHF. EUR/CAD is a traditional neutral and non wide ranging currency pair but seen is an incredible move must occur in order for EUR/CAD to normalize. EUR/GBP may have to travel higher to normalize yet this sets up EUR/GBP to a long term short. This assumes for EUR/CAD and EUR/GBP normal trading.

While GBP/USD remains normal, wide ranging GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD persist as problem pairs. AUD/USD as normal, wider ranging AUD/CHF, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD remain problems. USD, JPY cross pairs and NZD retain normality to signify normal trading moves as opposed to big moves expected in problem pairs. Problem pair retention from usual suspects 3 weeks later further signifies not only the markets inability to normalize prices but the deep degree to how far are the distortions in money supplies, interest and exchange rates.

EUR/USD last week’s 1.1798 target achieved 1.1738 yet just shy of the 1.1800’s break point. This week’s target at 1.1794 falls just shy of the 1.1802 break point in order for a higher EUR to target 1.1870, 1.1957 and eventual 1.2088.
As reported over many weeks, the break at 1.1800’s has been resilient as this marks a higher EUR. Watch for failure and deep drop.

Lower to target 1.1540, EUR/USD must break 1.1694, 1.1681, 1.1645, 1.1623 then flood gates open to 1.1540. Any price below 1.1645 becomes open game to longs.

USD/JPY break point for lower to target 109.00’s is located at 110.78. The 109.00’s however represent not only many and massive supports but a break of 109.00’s targets easily 107.00’s and lower. Overall 109.00’s is the line in the sand. Above 11207 and 112.78 are sell points. Above 112.78 then a short only strategy is the only way to proceed.

GBP/USD from a short, medium and long term perspective is severely oversold. The break point for higher is located at 1.3360 to target 1.3440, 1.3521 and 1.3589. GBP/USD must first break 1.3322 then home free to 1.3360 and higher.

GBP shortest term must trade to 1.3214, 1.3221, 1.3247 then 1.3322 on a long only strategy.

AUD/USD How many weeks for AUD is severely oversold, break point at 0.7501 and long any drops to the eventual break. AUD severely under performs due to severe range problems inside 100 pip ranges. Under 0.7383 then long only while above 0.7501 then targets 0.7535, 0.7581, 0.7620 and eventual 0.7767.

Here’s USD/CAD close 1.3141 and GBP/USD 1.3126.

USD/CAD remains the favorite currency pair. USD/CAD break point for lower to target 1.2966, 1.2956, 1.2914, 1.2862 and 1.2778 is located at 1.3036. Above 1.3194 then short only becomes the strategy.

NZD/USD break point for higher to target 0.6991, 0.7004, 0.7045 and 0.7063 is located at 0.6910. NZD currently is deeply oversold and retains a huge potential for much higher. Higher must first break 0.6875 and 0.6901 then home free to upper decks. Massive supports exists below at 0.6775 and 0.6765. Any price below then longs is the way.

 

My trusted friend, exquisite top brand name Watches, , Pocket Watches, Rings, luxurious, please have a look, Brian Twomey

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

USD/CNY Vs CNY/JPY: Levels, Ranges, Targets

From the USD/CNY April 1 post, a re visit and brief history to Yuan internationalization since 2005.
USD/CNY trade history as a result of the 2005 internationalization of the Yuan began July 2005 at 8.0351 then dropped over 1200 pips 3 years later to 6.7922 in July 2008. From July 2008 to May 2010, USD/CNY traded in dormant stages inside a 795 pip range from 6.8895 to 6.8090.

USD/CNY’s 789 pip downtrend resumed from June 2010 to June 2014 from 6.8305 to a 9 year bottom at 6.0406. An uptrend began from 6.0406 to June 2017 highs at 6.9622. USD/CNY trades at current roughly 6.7788 April 1.

USD/CNY since 2005 and in 144 traded months, 99 down months were seen as opposed to 45 up months.

Politically, China was granted Most Favored Trade status by the 1st George Bush Administration in 1991 – 1992 which means zero to low low tariff charges for China Imports and Most Favored Nation Status resumes to current day.

USD/CNY when last visited April 1 traded at 6.2874 and the forecast was to trade 997 pips higher to 6.3268, 6.3779 and 6.3871. USD/CNY since broke 6.3871 to trade at current 6.7788 and trades above the 5 and 10 year averages at 6.4234 and 6.4972.
USD/CNY’s range from most significant break points is located from 6.5572 to 6.8085, a 2513 pip range as USD/CNY is an extremely wide ranging currency pair both on a short and long term basis.

USD/CNY rose 6000 more pips higher than the 997 pip forecast in April from 6.3871. The reason is China is a Repo rate nation as opposed to most G10 as interest rate nations, big difference.

Best manner to view USD/CNY ranges short term is from 700, 800 and 1000 pips and this represents just the start to longer term USD/CNY forecasts.

From current 6.7788, USD/CNY is deeply overbought into the stratosphere and must trade lower. The first target below is located at 6.7001 and 6.6797 then 6.6358 and 6.6121. For far lower, USD/CNY must break 6.5572 and 6.5429. Until both breaks then USD/CNY must view as a correction inside a larger uptrend.

CNY/JPY from current 16.6740 is deeply oversold and must trade higher yet trade higher is representative of a correction inside a larger downtrend. The current range is supported below at 16.6326 and 16.4993 Vs above breal points at 16.8509 and 16.8983. A break of 16.8983 the next targets 16.9678 and 17.0324. The break at 16.8983 to travel higher corresponds to USD/CNY 6.5572.

Targets above for higher begins at 16.6901 and 16.7642 for roughly a 902 pip corrective move. On a longer term, multi month term, CNY/JPY has potential to trade to 17.0580.

As was stated many times, Fed Funds was and remains in extreme overbought into all 2016 and overbought extremes means 20 and 25 year monthly averages. Yet the Fed never halted it raise path. Significant moves will be seen in currency prices especially in the USD/CNY and CNY/JPY relationship upon a Fed halt to raises. A 5 year median Dot Plot hardly reveals the true position to current Fed Funds.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Last week’s currency markets reported the 2nd week to Statistical nightmares, Statistical anomalies where Majors in USD V Non USD are at Statistical Wars with respect to their own prices as well as war against other currency pairs.
Traditionally, if one currency pair is affected by uncertain statistical direction then all currency pair prices are affected as nations purposefully hold currency prices extremely close to its counterpart nations, especially in today’s central bank newly created currency price.

Statistical assessment over the past 2 weeks revealed itself as technical analysis displays this week Doli candles in GBP/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD.

Recall last week’s revelations to not only above cross pairs on the problem list but best price movements would derive from cross pairs. Why is answered by settlement in EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, USD/JPY and NZD/USD but unsettled prices to GBP/USD and AUD/USD. The further note is JPY cross pairs remain in good stead to problems except EUR/JPY.

While EUR/USD is desperately trying to rise, range tops in EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and problem pair EUR/CHF prevent EUR/USD further to break its vital point at 1.1819.

While GBP/USD price is far to low and must rise, problems derive from GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD.

As AUD/USD also desperately seeks to rise to break 0.7520, problems developed in AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD while AUD/CHF leaves the problem pair list.

Overall, currency prices contain range and alignment dilemmas and the origin is located from exorbitantly high interest rates in all nations.

The RBA and Lowe confirms wholesale interest rates are far to high. Such a development derives from the Fed as all central banks price national interest rates from the Fed and it begins with the RBNZ then feeds to all central banks. To high by my assessment and common to all central banks is about 40ish basis points and quite staggering by today’s standards.

EUR/USD targets this week 1.1798 on breaks of 1.1700, 1.1715 and 1.1729. Vital break at 1.1819 targets higher levels at 1.1916, 1.1972 and eventual 1.2088. Below targets 1.1545, 1.1410 and 1.1401 on breaks of 1.1680 and 1.1631. EUR/USD strategy remains longer term in long only mode as averages are rising alongside higher prices.

USD/JPY current massive overbought and multi year range top at 112.82 targets lower to 111.11, 109.64 and 109.42. Target at 109.00’s achieves destinations only on a break of 110.27. The 110.00’s and 109.00’s however formed many and massive supports from 110.73, 110.54, 110.40 and 110.32.

USD/JPY gained roughly 200 pips per month since the 104.63 bottoms in March and now the 112.82 range top is upon JPY. Short only is the strategy over the longer term as USD/JPY contains every ability to travel lower to 108.00’s and 107.00’s.

GBP/USD ranged last week 252 pips from 1.3360 to 1.3108 lows and its vital break point for higher to 1.3500’s, 1.3600’s and 1.3800’s is located at 1.3412. GBP/USD targets this week 1.3313 and a must break point in order to challenge 1.3412. Any price below 1.3220 is open to longs on a long only strategy as GBP targets far higher prices over time.

AUD/USD break point is located at 0.7520 and targets upon a break higher 0.7566, 0.7634 and 0.7773 longer term. AUD/USD’s previous multi week target at 0.7500’s was prevented by a corrective rise in EUR/AUD to 1.5900’s from the 1.5200 lows in June. Current EUR/AUD target at 1.5500’s and lower places AUD/USD to its current 0.7520 break point.

USD/CAD again remains most favored because its a pure and market oriented currency pair. Neither the BOC nor Fed holds USD/CAD from its wide movements.

A break at 1.3106 and 1.3039 allows CAD a run to its vital point for lower at 1.3014 to target 1.2972, 1.2956, 1.2905 and 1.2858. USD/CAD trades at multi year range tops and the commitment to a lower CAD on a short only strategy not only remains but holds for many weeks to come.

Problem pair break points .

EUR/CHF is not only overbought but watch the break point at 1.1652.

GBP/CAD Do or Die is located at 1.7450.

GBP/NZD current overbought and break point is located at 1.9359.

GBP/AUD Do or Die at 1.7835 from the close at 1.7829.

AUD/CAD Watch 0.9784 from the close at 0.9765.

AUD/NZD severely overbought from its 1.0970 close requires a break at 1.0855 for much lower prices.

CAD/CHF from 0.7611 closed exactly on its 100 day average and its break point is located at 0.7578 to target lower prices.

 

Brian Twomey

 

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EUR/CAD V GBP/AUD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

On April 11 when last EUR/CAD was visited, the trade strategy was sell 1.5900 to target 1.5500’s then 1.5300’s. The warning was 1.4900’s would trade on a break of 1.5300’s. Severely overbought EUR/CAD from April 11 traded to 1.4900’s at the end of May.
From the May lows at 1.4900’s, EUR/CAD traded to 1.5500’s and now sits deeply overbought at lower 1.5400’s. EUR/CAD is heading right back to 1.4942 and 1.4905.

On the way, EUR/CAD must break 1.5374, 1.5314, 1.5080 and 1.5068 then home free to 1.4900’s.

The multi week strategy as was the trade status for EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD is sell any and all rallies and trade down to 1.4900’s. Any priice above 1.5433 becomes an added bonus. If Poloz at the BOC offers Wednesday a skyrocket EUR/CAD then a further benefit is again added.

GBP/AUD as was last addressed April 8 and traded at 1.8300’s stood just below resistance at 1.8696. The target then was 1.8200’s and 1.7900’s on a further break of 1.8127. GBP/AUD traded to 1.7399 by end June.

Current GBP/AUD at 1.7700’s remains a sell rally strategy as long as price remains below 1.8658 and 1.8665. At 1.7700’s, bottoms are located at 1.7442 and 1.7394.

Higher to target 1.8168 and 1.8270 must break 1.7757, 1.7826, 1.7856, 1.7919 and 1.8030. Most vital for higher as a shorter term strategy is located at 1.7826 to target 1.7900’s.

Overall, the more comfortable strategy is long from 1.7400’s and 1.7300’s to target 1.7700’s and 1.7826. GBP/AUD from last post remains on the problem currency pair list but the problem is uncertain direction as much resistance lies above and the Stats are clearly fighting upside V downside moves.

The clear strategy is found in short EUR/AUD as opposed to GBP/AUD.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY, AUD, GBP, CAD: levels, Ranges, Targets

Currency Markets this week retain 2nd week of Statistical nightmares, Statistical anomalies where Majors in USD V Non USD are at Statistical Wars with respect to their own prices as well as war against other currency pairs. USD/CAD 1.3400 and USD/JPY 110.90’s great examples. War means pertinent Statistics lack uniformity to higher / lower but the condition is temporary and offers trade opportunities and insights to types of markets that will trade as the market rightsizes prices. The key is understanding.

Current Stat war is causing much grief to cross pairs as evident by high / low price noise. Cross pair prices settled March / April and allowed USD V Non to perform their movement tasks. Problem pair range noise means its time again for cross pairs to move once more as USD V Non become settled. Afterall, its been 3 months. Currency pair trade selection again is most vital as problem range pairs developed within the mix over the past 2 weeks.

The derivation to Statistical lack of consistency is caused by the Fed’s raise 3 weeks ago as prices then were knocked off intended price paths only to begin again. EUR/USD 3 weeks ago at 1.1720 contained an 1.1812 target but was knocked lower to 1.1500’s by the Fed’s raise. USD/CAD traded to 1.3400’s on a 1.2900’s target. GBP/USD traded 1.3000’s on a 1.3300 target.
If ever an opportunity existed to demonstrate Statistical Price Paths, its found in the past 3 weeks as target prices must fill intended obligations to then settle. From 1.1500’s, EUR/USD so far traded 1.1767, GBP/USD achieved 1.3290 and USD/CAD traded to 1.3076 lows. A Statistical Price Path offered and consummately offers greater opportunities.

Here’s the pairs to watch / trade for best moves, EUR/CHF, GBP/CHF, AUD/CHF and the commonality is CHF.

EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD and AUD/CAD against commonality to CAD. EUR/CAD is significantly out of sync. Watch Poloz this week closely.

GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD. Overall AUD/NZD is a horrible currency pair while recall in March the advice to not trade GBP/NZD as it was caught in a 1.9200 to 1.9500 range without clear trade signals to the 150 pip trade criteria.

EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD.

EUR/GBP remains and seems will retain status as problem for time immemorial and is a pair to not trade.

EUR/USD break point for higher /lower is located at 1.1807 to then target higher at 1.1862, 1.1925, 1.1932, 1.1977 and eventual 1.2087.

EUR/USD below main breaks are well supported at 1.1702, 1.1677, 1.1635 and 1.1545. Long only remains EUR/USD strategy.

USD/JPY’s higher /lower break point is located at 109.92 and lower is the objective to 109.22. USD/JPY must first break 110.47, 110.23 and 110.05. USD/JPY traded an 85 pip range from 111.13 to 110.28 and advice last week to refrain from trade in USD/JPY was correct. USD/JPY will continue to under perform.

USD/CAD break point is located at 1.3019 and lower targets 1.2970, 1.2951, 1.2903 and 1.2844. Short only remains the overall strategy.

AUD/USD break Point for higher/ lower is located at 0.7517 to target 0.7577 and 0.7633. Long only strategy remains especially at 0.7389 and any price below to target the break at 0.7517.

GBP/USD break point for higher / lower is located at 1.3407 to target higher at 1.3522 and 1.3623. Lower is supported at 1.3242 and 1.3196. Again, long only strategy is the way as GBP heads much higher from currency levels.

 

Brian Twomey

 

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EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Recall the short EUR/AUD trade in March from 1.6100’s to 1.5500’s inside a 2 month time frame. EUR/AUD actually ended in June at 1.5200’s and the rise to current 1.5800’s is the result from the 1.5200 lows.

At current 1.5800’s, EUR/AUD targets again 1.5500’s but this time the target is located at 1.5549. Longest term, EUR/AUD contains every ability to travel back to 1.5300’s. Along the way to 1.5500’s, break points are located at 1.5778, 1.5722, 1.5703, 1.5628 and 1.5611.

The strategy over the next months is sell any and all price rises until 1.5500’s achieve its destination. Any price rises is a bonus and only adds to shorts. The only manner to handle EUR/AUD is a short only strategy as longs are literally impossible. The March mistake was allow EUR/AUD to trade on its own to the 1.5500 target for roughly 300 pips per month. A sell only daily / weekly strategy pays far more until the 1.5500 target achieves.

A EUR/AUD short then explains how AUD/USD achieves its 0.7500 targets short term and 0.7800’s over the longer term. A EUR/AUD rise severely contains AUD/USD and prevents an AUD move higher.

EUR/NZD contains serious range problems because its moving averages are all in bad shape and lacks decent uniformity. Yet all vital averages are far overbought.

The vital break points are located at 1.7174, 1.7142, 1.7089 and 1.7016 then the longer range target is located at 1.6848 and 1.6737. The first short target is located at 1.7142 from current low 1.7200’s.

Above break points are located at 1.7412 and 1.7407. The EUR/NZD strategy is the replica of EUR/AUD to sell any and all rallies over the longer term to target 1.7016 then 1.6800’s.

Other pairs contian range problems similar to EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD and those pairs include USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD and AUD/CAD. In days ahead, I will take a view and post the problem pairs.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

EUR/USD ranged 191 pips last week from previously mentioned 1.1720 to 1.1529 against the target price at 1.1806. EUR/USD closed Friday at 1.1681 and 1.1655 last week, a 26 pip difference.

GBP/USD ranged 240 pips last week from 1.3291 to 1.3051 against the target price at 1.3367 and 1.3387. GBP/USD closed Friday at 1.3203 and 1.3258 last week for a 55 pip difference.

USD/JPY ranged 155 pips last week from 109.37 to 110.92 against the target price at 109.15 and 108.99. USD/JPY closed Friday at 110.66 and 109.97 last week for a 69 pip difference.

USD/CAD ranged 250 pips last week from 1.3383 to 1.3133 against the target price at 1.2980. USD/CAD closed Friday at 1.3133 and 1.3260 last week for a 127 pip difference.

AUD/USD ranged 117 pips last week from 0.7324 to 0.7441 against the target price at 0.7550’s. AUD/USD closed Friday at 0.7402 and 0.7440 last week for a 38 pip difference.

USD/CHF included this week closed Friday at 0.9906.

Target Price explanation. Previous years target prices not only hit exactly by math standards but targets reached destinations by price alignments. The system served well its purpose but it lacked deeper price information. The current system’s refinement to price targets is far superior because it reveals much more to price information, price relationships, next targets, settled prices, price speed, price changes, continuation, ranges, short V Medium V Long term targets and the list is literally endless. Most importantly, the current target structure captures perfectly the contemporary rules under the new market composition instituted by central banks 2 years ago. Any questions, see March / April 35 trades and 4000 ish pips.

EUR/USD target this week is located at 1.1802 on a break of 1.1702 and 1.1712 against the break point at 1.1811. Tough area here as a long rejection candle is easily achievable. A break of 1.1811 then targets next 1.1936, 1.1992 and 1.2086. Below long points to a long only strategy are located at 1.1630, 1.1638 and 1.1545.

USD/JPY break point at current 109.74 hardly changed in 3 weeks. Last week’s target at 109.15 and 108.77 achieved 109.37 then bounced to 110.94 and 30 pips above 110.68 sell point.

Overbought USD/JPY from previous 3 month contention to EUR/USD and USD is now in a battle of Statistics against itself. Higher to 112 relieves price pressures but higher means more overbought. Lower price pressures relieves at 104.
Lower targets 109.96 and break of 109.74 targets 109.54, 109.24 and 109.09. Higher targets 111.95. Good strategy is leave USD/JPY to trade another day as the longer term short is slowly building and this meets agreement to EUR/USD much higher. Overall, USD/JPY averages are falling against a rising price as the longer term range is located from high 112.00’s to 99.00’s, a 1300 pip range. Previous 113.00’s are now gone. USD/JPY’s resolution won’t solve itself well.

GBP/USD. Higher for GBP must break 1.3428 to target 1.3555, 1.3565 and 1.3638 then on to 1.3800’s. Target this week on a long only strategy is located at 1.3367 and 1.3383. Below long points begin at 1.3285, 1.3251 and 1.3214. GBP/USD 1.4100’s many times previously mentioned as longest term target was confirmed last week by Goldman Sach’s call for GBP/USD 1.4100. What’s 1.4100 in a 3100 pip range from 1.3200’s to the Brexit fall at 1.6300’s.

AUD/USD now achieved deeply oversold yet again but this week reveals oversold across the board. Break point is located at 0.7533 to target 0.7600’s and 0.7700’s. Longer term target remains now 0.7783 and down 47 pips since March 0.7830. Target this week remains at 0.7550’s.

USD/CAD’s price in the last 3 weeks rose to 1.3400’s against stasis averages and as USD/JPY, USD/CAD enters its own statistical abnormalities. CAD is far overbought and must trade lower. The target over 3 weeks remains now 1.2943, 1.2911 and 1.2900, 1.2823 on a break of 1.3027 and 1.3014. The overall CAD trade resembles the March/ April AUD/NZD example. We held to target AUD/NZD against a profit but AUD/NZD dropped to the same degree as the profit. Never a loss however but terrible entry.

USD/CAD remains a short only strategy especially above 1.3010. Here’s 2 prices, 1.3133 and 1.3203. Guess the pairs.

USD/CHF break point for lower at 0.9847 targets a mass of many and sustaining supports at 0.9700’s. Current supports at 0.9700’s was reported in March / April and hasn’t changed in 3 months. Higher to target 1.0130 is located at 1.0064. Look for shorts above 0.9939. From a daily perspective, USD/CHF sits at dead neutral and is the smarter position in relation to USD/CAD and USD/JPY.

Overall currency markets are within roughly 100 pips to break points/targets and the problem pairs as price drivers derives from USD.

 

Brian Twomey

 

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EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

From Last week’s written line – up: EUR/USD traded 167 pips from 1.1507 to 1.1674, GBP/USD 210 pips from 1.3105 to 1.3315, USD/JPY 120 pips from 110.75 to 109.55, AUD/USD 94 pips from 0.7348 to 0.7442, USD/CAD 222 pips from 1.3159 to 1.3381 and GBP/CAD 349 pips from 1.7423 to 1.7772.

EUR/USD vs common currency market themes at 50 to 150 pips traded last week 167 pips and 262 in the prior week, USD/CAD traded 222 last week vs 252 pips 2 weeks ago, AUD/USD traded last week 94 pips Vs 183 pips 2 weeks ago. GBP traded 210 pips last week VS 234 pips 2 weeks ago.

EUR/USD again remains a long only strategy as the weekly target is now 1.1806. Higher to target 1.1940 and 1.1942 must break 1.1824. To 1.1806 target must break 1.1645, 1.1660, 1.1671, 1.1683 then to 1.1710, 1.1747, 1.1763 and 1.1784. Watch for longs below 1.1635.

USD/JPY target this week is located at 109.15 and 108.99 on a break of 109.74. Watch the cluster of supports at 109.64, 109.62 and 109.60 to clear then on to 108.99. Above sell points 110.02, 110.21, 110.32 and 110.68.

GBP/USD. As the Fed now holds interest rates at 2.00 and BOE at 0.50, the BOE by osmosis will be forced to raise and a raise means GBP far higher. Last week’s mention to GBP’s off kilter relationship to its pertinent averages was the explanation to the violent upswing to the 6 -3 BOE decision.

Higher for GBP must break 1.3464 to target 1.3593 and 1.3652 then on to 1.3800’s. Target this week on a long only strategy is located at 1.3367 and 1.3383. Below long points begin at 1.3270, 1.3262 and 1.3253.

AUD/USD break point for higher is located at 0.7565 to target 0.7600’s and 0.7700’s. A break at 0.7532 is required to then lead the way to a break at 0.7565. Target remains the same as last week, 0.7550’s and longs below 0.7450’s. AUD maintains the same relationship to its averages as does GBP. The averages remain severely off kilter. Both AUD and GBP remain deeply oversold.

USD/CAD’s deeply overbought condition maintains its break point for lower at 1.2980. Lower for CAD must break 1.3166, 1.3024 and 1.3006 to target and break 1.2980 then on to 1.2800’s and 1.2700’s. CAD remains a short only strategy against a massive potential for a deeply lower price. CAD like its AUD and GBP counterparts holds an off kilter relationship to its averages.

Notice GBP, AUD and CAD and the off kilter relationships to its averages. NZD can assume it contains the same off relationship to its averages and the reason is derived from AUD, NZD and CAD are past members of the great British Empire. When each left the British Empire, all adopted the same UK money market system against slight twists to distinguish each nation as its own separate entity. In all, not much changed over the centuries. AUD, GBP and NZD averages are equally oversold while CAD maintains equal overbought.

My trusted friend, http://tantalumwatches.com Exquisite top brand name Watches, #watches, Pocket Watches, Rings, Luxurious, Please have a look, Brian Twomey

 

Brian Twomey

 

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Currency market common themes at 50 and 150 pip ranges experienced slight violations particularly in EUR pairs. Ranges were reported last week against the caveat to many currency pair prices approached and/ or traded at significant high/ low break points therefore subject to long rejection candles. EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and GBP/USD approached 1.1895, 1.3544 and 130.00’s then dropped while USD/CAD and USD/JPY rose from break points at 1.2950 and 109.29.

Among the 10 currency pairs posted last week EUR/USD, EUR/AUD and EUR/JPY were clear winners as each dropped 262 pips, 263 and 264 to violate the upper 150 range by roughy 100 pips. EUR/USD dropped from 1.1809 to 1.1547, EUR/AUD 1.5694 to 1.5431 and EUR/JPY 130.33 to 127.69.

USD/CAD was next to violate at 252 pips as CAD jumped from 1.2950 to 1.3202 followed by GBP/USD’s 237 pip drop from 1.3449 to 1.3212. GBP/JPY and USD/JPY each roamed 164 and 161 pips from 147.90 to 146.32 and 109.28 to 110.89.

AUD/USD and AUD/JPY each ranged 183 and 188 pips from 0.7622 to 0.7439 and 84.15 to 82.27. AUD/JPY since March and reported many times previously, held 84.00 to 82.00’s against slight violations at 81.00 and 85.00’s but always managed to retain its 82.00 to 84.00 space.

CAD/JPY held 149 pips from 85.20 to 83.71. Reported last week in CAD/JPY was the continued struggle to USD/CAD as this relationship contains serious problems. Note the perfection in EUR/USD V EUR/JPY and AUD/USD to AUD/JPY.

USD/CAD must travel miles lower and CAD/JPY higher in order for this relationship to rectify. The same problem relationship is seen in GBP/USD to GBP/JPY but GBP/JPY is clearly explained by an uncertain and clueless USD/JPY since its March rise from 105.00’s.

Into week 2 is again seen a USD correction lower and non USD as in EUR/USD and GBP higher. The clear winners higher this week are seen easily in EUR and GBP and USD/CAD lower while USD/JPY will remain the slow / dead mover.

EUR/USD higher to again target 1.1812 must break 1.1660, 1.1669 then 1.1718 and 1.1724. Caution is warranted at 1.1724 as much daylight exists from 1.1724 to 1.1803 then the 1.1812 target. Above 1.1724, EUR/USD could easily see a 1.1724 to 1.1784 range. EUR/USD break point to target 1.1946, 1.1952 and longer term 1.2038 and 1.2085 is located at 1.1881.

EUR/USD below break is located at 1.1383 and is under no threat this week to travel lower. EUR this week retains a long only strategy.

GBP/USD deeply oversold like its EUR/USD counterpart, targets easily this week 1.3349 then 1.3449 ahead of its vital break point at 1.3518 to target 1.3600’s and 1.3800’s. GBP drops fails to maintain its relationship with current averages therefore GBP’s overall ability to skyrocket and travel significantly higher over time remains a great potential. GBP’s best comfort zone is located from 1.3518 to 1.3800’s and this area coincides to EUR/USD 1.1800 to 1.2000’s.

AUD/USD break point is located at 0.7623 to travel higher to 0.7700’s. This week’s targets are located at 0.7555, 0.7573 and 0.7589. At 0.7589 must break to target 0.7623 and 0.7700’s. AUD as well is deeply oversold short and long term as AUD contains every ability to target 0.7800’s over time.

GBP/CAD is well supported at 1.7438 and 1.7429 and target this week is located at 1.7699 upon breaks at 1.7568 and 1.7597.

USD/CADis not only overbought but a clear favorite for shorts to target longer term again 1.2776 on breaks at 1.2894, 1.2883 and 1.2865. First break points below are located at 1.3010, 1.3001, 1.2981 and 1.2930. For the week acceptable targets are located at 1.2981 and 1.2930. Recall USD/CAD last week bounced from current lower 1.2900 supports.

USD/JPY Lower targets 109.01 and 108.88 on breaks at 109.76, 109.64. First breaks lower are located at 110.50, 110.27, 110.19 then on to 109.64 and lower. Above 110.50 targets 111.87 and 111.96 and far more closer to USD/JPY historic range tops at 113.00’s. As stated previously, USD/JPY contains great potential to travel significantly lower to 107.00’s on a break of 109.64 and 108.88.

 

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Brian Twomey

 

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and JPY Crosses: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The currency market common theme this week is again focused on major break points inside the same 50 to 150 ranges for a vast majority of currency pairs. The prime example is EUR/USD break point at 1.1895 Vs USD/JPY at 109.41. The respective failure at break points held USD/JPY inside a 100 pip range last week from 109.20 to 110.25 and 181 pips for EUR/USD from 1.1657 to 1.1838.

Last week’s reported dark area in USD/JPY from 109.45 to 110.01 held for the most part and this week the same area exists from 109.45 to 110.04. Rarely seen Dark areas represent untouchable zones until a price break is seen.

The second theme as USD/CAD, USD/JPY correction lower, EUR/USD and non USD pairs higher remains this week’s price path. This week will clearly decide as the internals inside current prices contains easily ability for EUR/USD to break 1.1895 and seen inside USD/JPY is a good prospect to literally drop like a rock. What contains a massive USD/JPY fall however is seen in EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY higher against a range bound scenario in CAD/JPY and AUD/JPY. Clearly a volatile week is here and USD/JPY as the prime driver.

USD/JPY from the 109.55 close ranges from 109.42 to 109.69. Below most vital 109.42 targets remain from last week at 108.77 and 108.73 then possibly next week to further target 107.87. Above 109.69, sell points to target 109.42 and below to 108.77 is located at 110.04, 110.07, 110.22 and 110.44. Overall, any price above 109.45 becomes open for shorts and sell rally is the proper strategy as longs are impossible considerations.

EUR/USD must break 1.1873 and 1.1895 to target 1.1920 and 1.1954 then eventual 1.2058 and 1.2084. EUR/USD would then easily range from 1.2058 and 1.2054 to 1.2304 and 1.2357 as 1.2300’s represents breaks point to see a 1.2500 and 1.2700 EUR.
Below inside a EUR/USD weekly buy drop strategy, long points are located at 1.1730, 1.1722 and a solid line at 1.1679.
GP/JPY main break point to target 150.14 is located at 148.17. To achieve 150.14, GBP/JPY must clear 148.33, 148.55 and 148.93. The clear higher or lower point is located at 147.23.

Below inside a weekly buy drop strategy, long points are located at 146.68 and 146.65 then 145.47 and 145.42. Lower 145.00’s are not expected however as GBP/JPY will trade extremely bullish all week.

EUR/JPY as stated last week, break point now 130.13 leads to the top and many many points at 131.00’s. Target at 129.57 achieves by breaks at 129.15. Main break point all week to decide higher/ lower is located at 128.52. Below 128.01 and 127.61 provides excellent long point for an all week buy drop strategy. Not a terrific choice in EUR/JPY as GBP/JPY provides a clearer price path and wider ranges.

EUR/AUD break point above 1.5567 targets 1.5675 and 1.5697. Any price above 1.5536, all week provides excellent sell points as the overall top in EUR/AUD is located at 1.5700’s. Longs are again impossible and short only strategy is the only way. Note the word “ANY”. Look for shorts to 1.5417.

AUD/JPY break point is located at 83.60 from the 83.25 close. A break at 83.60 targets 84.46. Long drops is located at 82.80 and 82.06. To target a break at 83.60 then AUD/JPY must clear 83.16. Not a terrific currency choice in AUD/JPY as range conditions persist from 82.00’s to 84.00’s since March. AUD/JPY qualifies as well as EUR/GBP, CAD/CHF in the lower end 50 ish pip ranges as not much is seen to movements to AUD/JPY.

AUD/USD break point now 0.7641 and a rising line by 17 pips higher from last week’s 0.7624. Long points and only strategy is located at 0.7580, 0.7577 and 0.7554. AUD in on a long only strategy. Break at 0.7641 contains best shot provided 0.7619 breaks higher. Overall target is 0.7677, 0.7703 and 0.7805 in weeks ahead.

GBP/USD break point at 1.3544 targets 1.3611 and 1.3689. In weeks ahead on a 1.3544 break targets 1.3700’s, 1.3800’s and 1.4100’s. GBP for the week is heading higher and buy drops at 1.3378, 1.3327 and 1.3277 yet doubtful to be seen. Long only is the only way forward.

USD/CAD. Same deal as last week, short only strategy and short “Any” price above 1.2998. CAD break point at 1.2848 targets 1.2760 and 1.2715 on a break below and 1.2576 in weeks ahead.

CAD/JPY. Same pair, same Stats, and same tired range conditions as AUD/JPY. Reason for similarities is Australia and Canada share many of the same structures inside respective money markets systems.

Break point is located at 85.17 to target 85.63, 85.89, 85.98 and 86.03. CAD/JPY will struggle all week as USD/CAD decides its fate below 1.2848. Buy drops is located at 84.51, 84.30 and 84.11. As USD/CAD breaks 1.2848 then far higher to target 86.27 and higher will go CAD/JPY.

Again, note roughly 150 pip range and also note levels, ranges and targets are always exact week after week and year after year. Failure for major break point to break higher/lower will result in long rejection candles. Caution at vital break points.

Brian Twomey