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Investigated in this paper is a detailed account of the South Carolina contested Congressional election held October 19th, 1870 in the 2nd Congressional district for the 42nd Congress between Christopher Columbus Bowen and Robert Carlos De Large. De Large as the challenger was declared the victor and Bowen as incumbent became the contestant in a protracted 3 year period to determine a winner.
The South Carolina State Board of Canvassers certified the race within the mandated 20 day period after formal vote counts under South Carolina’s newly passed Election Law of March 1870. (1869 -1870 General Assembly, 1870 Act, No 284, pp 393 -397. ) The 1870 Election Act emulated the Januray 24th 1870 adopted Resolution in the United States House of Representatives introduced by Albert C. Barr of Illinois to declare the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Elections to act “as a Judicial body according to the rules of law. ” The Resolution passed 140 -23 in the 2nd Session of the 41st Congress. (House Journal p 190, Congressional Globe pp 709 -710. ).
Affirmed by the force of law and a first in South Carolina’s history, contestants in elections were allowed to take testimony, present evidence and charges. The 1870 law provided for provisions to prosecute for election crimes and administer oaths to voters and election officials. Contested elections became a public trial rather than the House of Representatives Standing Committe on Elections position to collect evidence and render a decision.
The race was contested under South Carolina’s Election law of 1870 and the Federal law of 1851 to govern the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Elections. Both laws derived from the Constitution.
Article 1, Section 5 explicitly states “Each House shall be the judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own members. Article 1, Section 6 exactly states “The Senators and Representatives shall receive a compensation for their services, to be ascertained by law, and paid out of the Treasury of the United States.”
Congressman were paid $5,000 per annum however on March 3, 1873, on the last day of the 42nd Congress, Representatives voted itself a 50% pay increase from $5,000 to $7500 then later rescinded at the beginning of the 43rd Congress. (Who should Govern Congress?, Access to Power and the Salary Grab of 1873, 2005, p 1). Bowen and De Large both benefited from Congressional allowance to pay expenses during the contested period while the salary to De Large remains under question despite abilty to be seated as a Congressman.
1851 law
Prior to passage of the 1851 law, contested elections were governed under the first election law of 1798 yet the act expired in 1804 as contested elections then lacked procedures to collect evidence and precedents as cases were decided at the inclination of the House of Representatives Election Committee. ( Contested Congressional Elections, C.H. Rammelkamp, Political Science quarterly, 1905, p 424). The 1851 enactment offered a formal mode of procedure to collect evidence, take testimony and provide a time period to expedite cases.
A contestant to an election must file a notice in writing within 30 days to the contestee along with an outline of specified charges. The contestee was given 30 days to respond to the charges to include why the election was valid. ( rammelkamp, p 425.). Within 60 days, issues and charges were known and enunciated. The next 60 days were allotted to take and transcribe testimony and submit other related materials.
Section three of the 1851 bill allows for a Federal, State or local judge to subpeona witnesses. ( Contested Congressional Elections, C.H. Rammelkamp, Political Science quarterly, 1905, p 425). De Large was represented by Attorney Charles W. Buttz and Bowen by Attorney H. Noah to question witnesses, submit evidence and argue points of law. Sworn testimony was taken by each Notary Public in the respective courthouses of Charleston, Colleton, Barnwell and Beaufort. ( Hind’s Precedents, Vol 1, 2 and 3).
Section seven of the 1851 law provides for the final results to send under seal to the Clerk of the House of Representatives and transmitted to the House Election Committee. The Election Committee then reviews evidence, ascertains any additional evidence, subpeona witnesses to include attorneys, contestants and contestees. A decision is imparted by committee vote to adjudicate the seat to either the contestant, contestee or to vacate the seat and declare a new election.
Vacated Seats
From 1865 -1903 in the 39th to 56th Congresses, 19 seats were rarely declared vacated by the House of Representatives Elections Committe from a total of 467 contested cases. ( Contested Congressional Elections, C.H. Rammelkamp, Political Science quarterly, 1905, p 429). A total of 29 seats were contested in the 41st Congress from 1869 to 1871, a record high year from 1789 yet the 54th Congress from 1895 to 1897 surpassed the 29 total to achieve 38 cases. From passage of the 1851 law, 359 cases were contested and 19 seats vacted.
1870 Law
While the 1851 law provided an administrative capability to resolve contested elections, South Carolina’s 1870 Act organized election races to prevent a contested preference. Section two allowed every male citizen without distinction to race, to vote if a resident of South Carolina for 1 year or a resident of the county for 60 days. (1870 Law). South Carolina’s passage of the 15th Amendment to the Constitution in March 1869 not only granted Blacks the right to vote but the 1870 Election was the first time to exercise voter privileges.

Republican Governor Robert Scott as mandated by Section three appointed, at least 60 days prior to an election, three Commissioners of Election for each county. County Election Commissioners then appointed three Managers of Elections for each election precinct of the county and Section 4 allows a Clerk to asssist in Election duties. Clerks maintain Poll lists of voter names and ensure only voters handle ballots. All Election Commmissioners are required to take an oath of office.
Election Managers in Section six are required to administer oaths to voters to ascertain qualification of voters and ensure voters non duplication to vote at multiple precincts.
State Constables and Peach officers are required at Polling places. “Violations of illlegal voting, intimidation, force, deception, fraud, bribery, or by undue influence to obtain, procure or control a vote is punished by fine of not less than $100 nor more than $1000. “An imprisonment sentence is mandated by no less than three months nor more than 12 months. (1870 Law).
After election, a designated representative must deliver within three days all Poll Lists and Ballot boxes to the Commissioner of Elections. (1870 Law, Section 15). The Commissioners of Elections on the next Tuesday after the Wednesday election then forms a County Board of Canvassers and administers oaths. (1870 law Section 16 and 17). The County Board of Canvassers must count votes within 10 days after elections and results are transmitted to the State Board of Canvassers: Governor Scott, Secretary of State F. Cardozo, State Auditor Reuben Tomlinson and Attorney General D.H. Chamberlain. (1870 law, Section 18).
The State Board of Canvassers is then formed by the Secretary of State on or before November 10th for the purpose of canvassing votes. The State Board of Canvassers next certifies elected respresentatives and a certificate was transmitted to the Clerk of the House of Representatives to declare De Large the winner.
The 40th, 41st and 42nd Congressional terms for seated Congressman ran from March to March and Congressional sessions were apportioned into three sessions to align calendar days to legislative days.
The 40th Congress began March 4, 1867 to December 1, 1867 to connect 42 calendar days to 42 legislative days. Session two began December 2, 1867 to November 10th, 1868 to acclimate 186 calendar days to 186 legislative days. Session three began December 7th, 1868 to March 3rd, 1869 to correspond 58 calaendar days to 58 legislative days.
The 41st Congress ran from 1869 to 1871 as the 1st session began March 4, 1869 to April 10th, 1869 to connect 26 calandar days to 26 legislative days. Session 2 commenced December 6, 1869 to July 15th, 1870 to allocate 164 calendar days to 164 legislative days. Session 3 originated December 5th, 1870 to March 3rd, 1871 to align 64 calandar days to 64 legislative days.
The 42nd Congressional term to the election of October 1870 ran from March 4th, 1871 to March 1873 and the 1st session began March 4, 1871 to April 20, 1871.
The October 19th, 1870 election was held between the 2nd and 3rd session of the 41st Congress to end July 15th, 1870 to resume December 5th, 1870. October 19th reflected the third Wednesday of the month and this date was mandated by the 1870 law to designate a permanent day for elections held every two years. (1870 Law, section 1, pp 393). Despite the election and disputed claims, Bowen remained the formal Congressman representing the 2nd Congressional district until March 1871 then vacated when De Large was seated.
Congress
The 40th Congress from 1867 – 1869 encompassed 226 house seats and formed by 47 Democrats, 173 Republicans, two conservative to include one Republican and 1 independent Republican. The 41st Congress from 1869 -1871 incorporated 243 house seats and formulated by 67 Democrats, 171 Republicans and five conservatives. The 42nd Congress from 1871 -1873 originated as 243 house seats and devised by 104 Democrats, 136 Republicans and constituted one liberal Republican, one independent Republican and two conservatives. (house of Representativs).
Based on the 1840 Census and the Apportionment Act of 1842, house seats were mandated at 223 and a requirement to elect representatives from Single Member Districts composed of contiguous territory rather than the previous practice of election from at large seats on a statewide voter basis. The 1850 Apportionment act increased the size of the house to 233 but lowered again to 223 by the act of 1862. The 1872 act required congressional districts to contain an equal number of persons. 1/70,680 residents for South Carolina. (league of women voters, south carolina, right to vote initiative, History of creating congressional districts)
Census
From the 1860 to 1880 Census, South Carolina began at 5 Congressional seats and added two seats to 7 by 1880. South Carolina’s population in 1870 was 705,808 to include 289,607 Whites, 415,814 Blacks, Free Colored and 402,406 slaves. Native born accounted for 097,532. Males included 363,902 and 361,704 females.
The counties of Barnwell population recorded 35, 724, Beaufort 34,359, Colleton 25.410 and Charleston 88,803.

The Election between Bowen and DeLarge as written in the final January 24th, 1873 Congressional Election Committee report contained abuses and irregularities. As stated by Congressman and Election Committee member George Hoar of Massachusetts on the House of Representatives floor “its impossible to determine who was elected”. ( Congressional Globe, January 24th, 1873, pp 842 -847). Misdeeds, crimes, fraud, bribery, corruption and many perversions to votes, voters, ballot boxes, illegal voting, intimidation and military surveillance at ballot boxes led to a protracted 3 year trial to render a decision.
Republican C.C. Bowen as he was customarily known was the incumbent and held the Congressional seat in the 40th and 41st Congress for one term from July 20, 1868 to March 3rd 1871. (House of Representatives). De Large as a mullatto and identified as black was the Republican challenger who held a 1968 seat in South Carolina’s lower state House of Representatives, the General Assembly. (House of Representatives). De Large served on the Railroad and Ways and Means Connittees. (Fairfied Herald, July 22, 1968).

Bowen contested the election upon the South Carolina Board of County Canvassers declaration to certify De large as victor. On November 7, 1870, Attorney General D. H. Chamberlain and State Auditor Reuben Tomlinson protested the decision and demanded a full investigation required under law. ( Hind’s Volume 3, pp 418).

Both Bowen and De Large contained ostentatious dispositions. During

Bowen bigamy, De Large fight 1869, republican by necessity, Bowen treason
corrupt Gov Scott support De large, Not bowen cause freedman’s bureau,

United States GDP: Levels, Ranges and Targets

United States GDP last at minus 32.9 was an enormous hit to the economy and the question to how hard was the drop is seen in GDP moving averages dating 10 years to March 1990. Moving averages derives from annual Real GDP. And the data for interested is found on the RBNZ site.


The positive to yearly averages is all are deeply oversold. This means GDP is going higher and miles higher but the question is will GDP leave negative territory.


1 to 5 year averages align as -0.725, -0.8625, 0.9333, and 1.2222 and 1.23. A positive GDP reading must clear at least 0.9333 then comes 1.2222. To clear 1.23 targets next 1.5388 and 1.7321. But those targets are 6 and 7 year averages. Normally GDP true targets are found around 3 year averages and the target here is -4.67.


First target is -10.91 then all targets remain negative yet target negatives decrease. From -10.91, targets progress higher to -8.11, -4.67, -4.29, -3.48, and last at -1.42.


A positive release is a higher negative unless the economy went on a ballistic rampage to then record a positive reading. Highly doubtful as many States remain closed and won’t contribute much to a more positive GDP.


The certain aspect to overall GDP is averages are deeply oversold and ranges are extraordinarily wide. GDP could easily achieve 2% and 3% without any trouble in future GDP releases. The 2% and 3% are just middle bound averages inside yearly averages.

A positive GDP reading will force all averages higher and then we can begin to report targets at 2% and 3%. But this would also assume a Trump win as I expect. Forget 2% if Biden and Democrats take power.

Brian Twomey

Weekly Trades: EUR/USD and USD/CAD

As analyzed to under performance to JPY cross pairs, CHF cross pairs GBP/CHF, EUR/CHF, AUD/CHF, CAD/CHF and NZD/CHF adds to the list. When GBP/CHF under performs then its the message to currency markets for all CHF cross pairs to follow because GBP/CHF traditionally lives among the big wide range pairs: GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD and sometimes EUR/AUD.


GBP/CHF and all CHF cross pairs are deeply oversold long, medium and short term. As bottom pair positions, CHF cross pairs hold USD and Non USD from trading in wide ranges as the top to USD V Non USD pairs are represented by JPY cross pairs.


Here’s regular alignment: GBP/CHF, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY. Compression of ranges as seen in JPY cross pairs are also affected by CHF cross pairs.


GBP/CAD, AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD all trade to severe under performance and EUR/CAD as the better pair of the group is under performing but holds it own. GBP/CAD has been a non trade able currency for months.


Only good trades remaining are USD Vs Non USD pairs despite range compression. If further contraction to ranges are seen in USD Vs Non pairs then currency markets will trade its most deepest concentration of restricted ranges since the 1972 free float.


What’s dead and not moving are interest rates and due to the central banks message to not raise rates for years. We can probably assume this means lowering is also a problem as the next step is negative rates.

Daily, the same old interest rate maturities trade in all nations. And interest rate ranges due to undecided central banks to move rates, are in deep compression mode. Markets are in deep slowdown mode. If currencies and interest rates are dead then all financial instruments are affected.


This week we’ll trade EUR/USD and USD/CAD as both are opposites. Correlations are running minus 96%. USD/CAD Vs USD/JPY runs +98% and means USD/JPY and USD/CAD run together.


And to weekly trades: no stops, charts, graphs, no fibs, indicators nor losses. 90% of all market talk or latest issues to markets is irrelevant to trades as a price doesn’t care to such things. For weekly trades, we trade up and down all week as pips are most valuable in the current trade environment.


Tomorrow posts GDP data and targets for Thursday’s release. GDP is deeply oversold and going miles higher.


EUR/USD


Short 1.1906 and 1.1919 to target 1.1718.
Short below 1.1671 to target 1.1577.
Long 1.1577 to target 1.1647
long 1.1718 to target 1.1812


USD/CAD


Long `1.3092 and 1.3072 to target 1.3265
Long above 1.3295 to target 1.3417
Short 1.3417 to target 1.3336.
Short 1.3265 to target 1.3133

Brian Twomey

USDJPY and Underperformance

USD/JPY contains 3 main problems to its 104.67 opening price: it lacks range ability to move, CHF/JPY is negatively correlated and USD/JPY doesn’t control its JPY cross pairs. Correlations reveal USD/JPY’s loss to its cross pairs.


This conundrum is not new as its been a months long situation. Both explain USD/JPY’s deficient movements. Overall correlations reveal USD/JPY is operating correctly and the problem is USD/JPY rather than a disfunction to currency markets.


USD/CAD sits in the same predicament as USD/JPY. Both inform currency markets are currently positioned as USD negative and risk on is the trading approach moving forward until USD/JPY regains control of its cross pairs. Then markets switch to USD positive and risk pairs are sold, EUR/USD for example.


CHF/JPY is the exact same pair as USD/JPY as USD is the same as CHF. Correct is for CHF/JPY and USD/JPY to retain high Correlations but Correlations run negative 96%.

Negative correlations means CHF/JPY transformed its correlations to positive JPY cross pairs. CHF/JPY for example runs +98% to EUR/JPY and +90% to GBP/JPY. A trade in CHF/JPY is the exact same trade as JPY cross pairs and opposite to USD/JPY. One trades short while the other trades long.


USD/JPY traded 139 pips last week Vs EUR/USD at 176 and EUR/JPY at 160 pips. CHF/JPY traded 160 pips. USD/JPY correlations Vs EUR/USD runs negative 98% and is correct at negative readings. EUR/USD Vs EUR/JPY is correct at +96%. EUR/USD VS GBP/JPY is correct at +87%.


GBP/USD traded 286 Pips last week while GBP/JPY performed at 185 Pips. GBP/USD correlations Vs GBP/JPY runs + 91% and is correct. Rare day for GBP/USD to run negative to GBP/JPY.

GBP/USD Vs USD/JPY runs negative 96% and again is correct to overall currency markets. GBP/JPY Vs CHF/JPY runs +90% and is also correct.

AUD/JPY traded 78 pips last week while AUD/USD traded 136 Pips. Correlations run +97%.


Not correct to overall currency markets is JPY cross pairs underperforming to its underlying pairs. JPY cross pairs, despite whatever correlations reveal, to be correct is to outperform underlying pairs. EUR/JPY traded less than EUR/USD to overall pips however JPY cross pairs to be correct should trade at least 1.5 to 2 times its underlying. AUD/JPY at 78 and AUD/USD at 136 is not correct. GBP/USD at 286 V GBP/JPY at 185 is not correct.

Correct functioning of currency markets is all cross pairs must outperform its USD Vs Non USD counterparts. EUR/USD cross pairs must trade many more pips than EUR/USD.
GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD cross pairs must trade many more pips than GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD.


For USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF cross pairs also must trade many more pips than USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.

While GBP/USD traded 286 Pips, GBP/AUD at 327 pips and a preeminent wider range currency pair barely exceeded GBP/USD.

GBP/NZD, the granddaddy of wide range currency pairs traded 322 pips and less than GBP/AUD but barely exceeded GBP/USD.


Currency cross pairs are not functioning correctly and this is a problem. Currency cross pairs were invented as trade instruments many years after USD and NON USD counterparts. They were invented to move by offering wider ranges to counterparts USD Vs NON underlying instruments.


What’s happening as mentioned is ranges for all currency pairs are compressing and ranges are actually dropping more and more each trading week. Prices overall are underperforming all around. I suspect ranges will continue to compress in the weeks ahead.


No movements to interest rates and central bank messages to not raise for years is the reason for range compression. Imagine EUR/USD moving 10 and 20 pips per day as happened during the 50 year period to Bretton Woods. Its possible in year 48 of the free float to see this new development represent the new 50 year trade period.


USD Vs Non USD remain the preeminent trades as current drivers to currency markets . The NON USD as EUR/USD, GBP/USD for example are best and USD/CAD on the non USD side.

Brian Twomey

Weekly Trades: EUR/USD and NZD/USD

Drivers and direction to Currency markets for the past weeks are USD and Non USD currency pairs. Those pairs currently determine cross pair direction. Certain weeks and periods, cross pairs drive USD and non USD but not this week nor for the past 4 weeks.
Not much excitement exists in this weeks currency prices as ranges are compressed and further compressing. Currency pair trade selection is key as not all currency pairs will perform as past weeks.


Central bank statements to not raise rates for years brings with it a slowdown to price speeds and range compression as interest rates are the primary drivers to currency prices from the 1972 free float inception to present day.


This week EUR/USD and NZD/USD will offer as weekly trades. Its a bottom NZD/USD Vs a top EUR/USD type trades. NZD/USD contains the lowest exchange rates among 65 + currency pairs. If the bottom falls then all currency pairs fall and it includes EUR/USD.


EUR/USD


Short 1.1825 and 1.1848 to target 1.1662
Short below 1.1639 to target 1.1499
Long 1.1499 to target 1.1566
long 1.1662 to target 1.1756.


NZD/USD


Short 0.6671 and 0.6687 to target 0.6579
Short below 0.6565 to target 0.6459.
Long 0.6459 to target 0.6539.
long 0.6579 to target 0.6644

Brian Twomey

Weekly Currency Pairs Order of Operations

Clear drivers and leaders to Currency markets over the past 4 ish weeks are USD Vs Non currency pairs. Non USD currency pairs are EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and AUD/USD Vs USD/CAD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY. Non USD currency pairs all trade above respective MA’s while USD pairs trade below.


The Non USD Vs USD lineup is correct. The correct lineup and sufficient ranges is what drove trades over the past month as clear long and short points were identified. Trades in USD Vs Non USD was the only trades of any profit value and the same situation exists in the current week. The same circumstance may exists for many weeks to come.


The non drivers and non leaders to Currency markets over the past 4 ish weeks are currency cross pairs in the universe of USD vs Non USD.


Viewed from EUR top and NZD bottom currency pairs, its obvious why cross pairs aren’t moving nor trading correctly and its due to cross pair mis positions.


NZD


NZD/USD trades above MA’s.
NZD/JPY trades above 69.56 by 2 pips.
NZD/CHF Trades below.
NZD/CAD trades below.


2 pairs trade above and 2 pairs trade below. This situation is clearly enough to compress ranges.


NZD/CHF for example is a dead issue to ranges due to its position between NZD/CAD and NZD/JPY. NZD/CAD’s correct position is above all NZD pairs and should be the first currency pair shown. NZD/CAD as first position and top currency pair drives the NZD universe. NZD/CHF’s correct position is bottom pair. When NZD/CHF assumes its correct position as bottom pair then it trades correctly and in its proper ranges. NZD/JPY lacks a clue to direction as it can easily fly either way. NZD/USD exits as the only clear trade.


EUR


EUR/USD trades above
EUR/JPY above by 12 pips
EUR/CHF below
EUR/CAD below
EUR/NZD Below by 2 pips
EUR/AUD above
EUR/GBP above.


EUR/USD is clear driver and only trade beside EUR/AUD. Ranges severely compressed as EUR/USD must decide the fate of its cross pairs.


GBP


GBP/USD trades above
GBP/JPY below
GBP/CHF below
GBP/CAD below
GBP/NZD below

GBP/AUD above by 3 pips. Ranges went into severe compression mode.


AUD


AUD/USD above by 2 pips
AUD/JPY below
AUD/CHF below
AUD/CAD below
AUD/NZD below


Ranges in AUD are good in relation to its counterparts and sufficient enough to see a good move for this week’s RBA announcement.


USD/CAD trades below its vital MA;s but contains excellent ranges.


EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD contain the best ranges to trade this week as USD Vs Non USD drives this week markets.

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD and USD/CAD Trade Results

USDCAD Weekly Trade As Posted

Long Anywhere or 1.3104 and 1.3100 to #target 1.3341

Lows 1.3098, Highs 1.3259

Trade Runs +161 pips

The GBPUSD trade posted Sunday resulted in +328 pips. The downside target at 1.2896 traded to 1.2863 for an extra 33 pips. The reversal trade long from 1.2896 actually began at 1.2863. Note 1.2863 is 3 pips above out posted short point at 1.2860. Point at 1,2860 held and allowed the long trade to target 1.2954. Again, the long traded to 1.2978 and an extra 24 pips of gains.

Overall, 33 extra pips on shorts and 24 extra pips on longs.

GBP/USD

Short Anywhere or 1.3049 and 1.3064 to target 1.2892.

Highs 1.3079, lows 1.2863.

Trade ran + 216 Pips.

2nd Leg

long 1.2892 to target 1.2954.

Lows 1.2863, Highs 1.2978.

Trade ran + 115 Pips 2 trades, 3 days +328 Pips.

Total GBP/USD + USD/CAD +489 pips

Brian Twomey

Inside the Currency Market Recommended for ACI FX Dealing Certificates

I often thought about obtaining an ACI Dealing Certificate and I am again in serious reconsideration. While viewing the exams and certificates, I noted my book Inside the Currency Market was adopted and recommended for future test takers as a source to study for the various exams.

I am honored and thrilled in the highest regards

Weekly Trades: GBP/USD and USD/CAD

As reported September 8 to Long term targets, GBP/USD contained a 2020 target at 1.3200’s yet traded to 1.3400’s. GBP/USD traded again to 1.3400’s and matched its 2019 target. GBP/USD long term targets dropped 200 pip per year and the exact same pip count as AUD/USD yearly targets.


To follow standard reversal formulas to normal price trading upon target completion, 300 and 600 pips becomes the bottom points. From 1.3400’s and counting 600 pips, GBP/USD 1.2800’s is current bottoms. Current GBP/USD 1.2800’s remains solid at 1.2892, 1.2868, 1.2860 and 1.2829.


From 1.3486 top to 1.2823 lows,, GBP/USD traded 663 pips and close to the 600 pip formula. GBP/USD then bounced to current 1.3000’s.


From GBP/USD 1.3486 top and the 300 pip count then becomes a danger zone as 300 pips at 1.3186 now bumps against the 5 year average at 1.3166.


GBP/USD is now caught between a 300 pip trading range from the 5 year average at 1.3166 and the vital break at 1.2860. Below 1.2860 then GBP/USD trades much lower. A 300 pip trading range is fairly standard in currency markets today over the past 3 and 4 years. And again matches the 300 and 600 pip formulas.


The overall driver to GBP/USD are many long term averages at 1.5000’s. Currently, averages at 1.5000’s are deeply oversold and any drops to GBP/USD then the averages achieves richter scale oversold. In the way of top averages at 1.5800’s is the 5 year average at 1.3166, 10 year average at 1.4526 and 14 year average at 1.5406.


GBP/USD from 1.4526 to 1.3166 equates to 1360 pips or a mid point at 680 pips. From 600 pips is then broken down to 300 pips to factor overall trading ranges.


USD/CAD 5 year average is located at 1.3190 and the 10 year at 1.1922. At 1268 pips, a mid point exists at 634 pips and again the 600 pip formula.


Longer term, USD/CAD is overbought and matches GBP/USD oversold.


Weekly Trades GBP/USD and USD/CAD.


GBP/USD and USD/CAD are the exact same pairs with matching exchange rates except both trade in opposite directions. Daytrades for GBP/USD and USD/CAD move by exact pips only in different directions. The daytrade count falls into the 300 and 600 pip formula.
GBPP/USD is deeply overbought while USD/CAD is deeply oversold.

GBP/USD

                        GBP/USD

Short Anywhere or 1.3049 and 1.3064 to target 1.2892.
Short below 1.2860 to target 1.2765.


Long 1.2765 to target 1.2829
long 1.2892 to target 1.2954

USD/CAD


Long Anywhere or 1.3104 and 1.3100 to target 1.3341
Long above 1.3359 to target 1.3470.


Short 1.3470 to target 1.3396.
short 1.3341 to target 1.3247.


Note to GBP/USD target at 1.2892 and USD/CAD at 1.3341.

GBP/USD current opening price at 1.3041 and USD/CAD 1.3115, a separation of 74 pips. The visual to the GBP short trade is GBP/USD trades below USD/CAD. For GBP/USD to trade higher, it must cross above USD/CAD. For USD/CAD to trade lower, it must cross below GBP/USD.


At 74 pips warns to a giant move ahead for both GBP/USD and USD/CAD as both will meet the 300 and 600 criteria.


All trades as usual are factored by pen, paper and calculator. No stops, charts, graphs nor screen watching.

Brian Twomey

Trade Results: GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD

The weekly GBP/USD trade posted, forecast and traded ended as 2 perfect trades to entries and targets. AUD/USD target at 0.7080 failed at 0.7095. The EUR/USD trade runs +83 pips and its target is yet to complete. EUR/GBP is what it is and like USD/JPY and USD/CHF, its not worth clicks.


Overall, nothing new to targets and trading as its been a standard practice for 10 + years.


GBP/USD


Short 1.2991 and 1.3007 to target 1.2863
Highs 1.3007, Lows 1.2865
1 pip to target
Perfect Entry and target
Trade Ran +142 pips.

2ng leg


Long 1.2863 to target 1.2927.
Lows 1.2865, Highs 1.2828
Trade Runs +63 pips


Target complete


2 trades + 205 pips and 2 perfect targets

Alternative to 2nd leg is GBP day trade because the 3rd leg to the trade was 1.2831 as most vital high/low break. GBP/USD had 2 options. The first was break 1.2831 then GBP targets lower or GBP had to bounce.

As posted many supports exists to GBP/USD in the 1.2800’s so for this week, the long to 2nd trade was assured. To resort to a day trade only would’ve profited by about 60 ish pips but the day trade was far more guaranteed due to my perfection placed to day trades.


EUR/USD


Short 1.1790 and 1.1802 to target 1.1628
Highs 1.1807, Lows 1.1724
Trade Runs +83 pips


Long way to target


AUD/USD


Short 0.7227 & 0.7237 to target 0.7080.
Highs 0.7208, Lows 0.7095
Trade now runs + 113 Pips.


AUDUSD dropped 19 pips before 0.7227 entry and target fell short by 15 pips.


4 trades, 3 days and +401 pips


As usual, trades are few but profits high. Imagine profits to the weekly 18 pairs traded every week. And no stops, no screen watching, no charts. My pen, paper and calculator is far more powerful.

Brian Twomey

AUD/USD Trade Results and RBA

Here’s the AUD/USD trade for RBA.
Short 0.7227 and 0.7237 to target 0.7080.
Highs 0.7208, Lows 0.7146.


A 4 hour trade now runs + 63 Pips.


AUD/USD dropped 19 pips before the 0.7227 entry.


A further drop in AUD/USD is dependent on EUR/USD and most specifically EUR/AUD.
EUR/AUD vital high/low point is located today at 1.6459. However AUD/EUR high/ low point is located at 0.6079 or EUR/AUD 1.6450.


EUR/AUD’s crucial area between 1.6459 and `1.6450 is a 9 pip zone and not tradeable. This means EUR/AUD requires a break of 1.6450 or 1.6459 in order to trade EUR/AUD and to determine AUD/USD’s further direction.


if EUR/AUD breaks above 1.6459 then AUD/USD drops further. If EUR/AUD drops below 1.6459 then AUD/USD rises again. AUD/USD is crucially dependent on AUD/EUR for direction and pip movements and this relationship will never change.


AUD/USD for today’s day trade contains a top at 0.7193 and 0.7198 and a good entry for shorts.


EUR/AUD however contains a correlation problem as EUR/AUD correlates to both AUD/USD and EUR/USD at -97% and -98%. EUR/AUD is a lost currency price but AUD/USD and EUR/USD Correlate at =98%. EUR/USD for the week will drop.

AUD/USD for the week will drop and shorts is the way as posted for EUR/USD on Sunday.

Seen to trades week after week and over many years is my pen, paper and calculator at work.

    Brian Twomey 

AUD/USD Trade Results and RBA

Here’s the AUD/USD trade for RBA.


Short 0.7227 and 0.7237 to target 0.7080.
Highs 0.7208, Lows 0.7146.


A 4 hour trade now runs + 63 Pips.


AUD/USD dropped 19 pips before the 0.7227 entry.


A further drop in AUD/USD is dependent on EUR/USD and most specifically EUR/AUD.


EUR/AUD vital high/low point is located today at 1.6459. However AUD/EUR high/ low point is located at 0.6079 or EUR/AUD 1.6450.


EUR/AUD’s crucial area between 1.6459 and `1.6450 is a 9 pip zone and not tradeable. This means EUR/AUD requires a break of 1.6450 or 1.6459 in order to trade EUR/AUD and to determine AUD/USD’s further direction.


if EUR/AUD breaks above 1.6459 then AUD/USD drops further. If EUR/AUD drops below 1.6459 then AUD/USD rises again. AUD/USD is crucially dependent on AUD/EUR for direction and pip movements and this relationship will never change.


AUD/USD for today’s daytrade contains a top at 0.7193 and 0.7198 and a good entry for shorts.


EUR/AUD however contains a correlation problem as EUR/AUD correlates to both AUD/USD and EUR/USD at -97% and -98%. EUR/AUD is a lost currency price but AUD/USD and EUR/USD Correlate at =98%. EUR/USD for the week will drop. AUD/USD for the week will drop and shorts is the way as posted for EUR/USD on Sunday.

Brian Twomey

AUD, RBA and Interest Rates

The RBA Overnight 1 month OIS Swap Rate at current 0.13 held everyday since June 15 except for 2 days, August 5 and 6. Since March, the 1 month Swap Rate ranged from 0.13 to 0.17. The change is meaningless to AUD movements.


The most vital 3 month Bank Bill Rate held 0.08 to 0.11 since April. And again the change is meaningless to AUD as not enough interest rate movements eists for AUD to trade other than tiny ranges to reflect interest rate moves.


The remainder of RBA Bank Bills and OIS Swap rates traded in the same no range capacity as the 1 and 3 month rates. Essentially, AUD interest rate markets went completely dead since March/April but all nation’s interest rate markets also went completely dead since March/April.

The only positive if any mention is RBA interest rates trade in a fairly correct lineup as all interest rates trade below headline at 0.25. AUD and the RBA is not unusual as all nation’s interest rates currently trade below headline and this set up includes the Fed.

The first rate below headline is the Effective interest rate and all remaining interest rate maturities trade around the effective rate. Here’s where is found day trades offered freely by all central banks.


Good example is GBP and the BOE. Current headline is 0.10 and the Effective rate termed Sonia is at 0.05 and currently 1/2 the distance to 0.10.


The last days BOE interest rates trades as follows: 0.0509, 0.0533, 0.0541, 0.0541, 0.0539, 0.0539, 0.0541 and 0.0538. This represents a sad day to market movements as no movement to interest rates translates to no movements to currency prices.

The central banks not only flattened daily ranges but current markets are trading at the lowest daily movements since EUR introduction in 1999.

5 Day Rule


The 3 month rate and RBA maturities must change by at least 5 basis points within 5 days then markets are alerted to an impending rate change. RBA rates fails in this regard as no movements exist. Only rare days does the RBA and central banks surprise with a rate change.
The RBA currently stands on hold and to follow the FED, may stand on hold for years to come. A lower headline from 0.25 threatens effective and interest rate maturities to trade to zero and easily to negative as was seen by the RBNZ rates last week.


AUD/USD


The positive to AUD/USD this week is ranges are trading wide. This means no matter the RBA decision and any statements, AUD has potential to move far and wide.


AUD/USD Weekly Trade


Short 0.7227 and 0.7237 to target 0.7080.
Short below 0.7054 to target 0.6924.


Long 0.6924 to target 0.7011
long 0.7080 to target 0.7162.


Current AUD moving averages are rising and this means any price trading above 0.7237 is an extra bonus for more AUD short profits.

Brian Twomey

Weekly Trades: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP at the 0.9052 close sits between big level 0.9043 and minor point at 0.9061. A break below 0.9043 targets easily 0.8963 and above 0.9123. From EUR/GBP 0.8963 and 0.9123 translates to GBP/USD 1.2702 below and 1.2958 above.


Vital to GBP/USD at 1.2700’s is many and massive supports exists at 1.2844, 1.2833, 1.2831, 1.2833 and 1.2800.


The EUR/GBP break or hold at 0.9043 is the crucial key to GBP/USD movements.


Weekly Trades


GBP/USD


Short 1.2991 and 1.3007 to target 1.2863
Short below 1.2831 to target 1.2719.
Long 1.2719 to target 1.2799
long 1.2863 to target 1.2927.


EUR/USD


Short 1.1790 and 1.1802 to target 1.1628
Short below 1.1603 to target 1.1504
Long 1.1504 to target 1.1578
long 1.1628 to target 1.1752


EUR/GBP


Short 0.9134 and 0.9144 to target 0.9063.
Short 0.9043 to target 0.8982.
Long 0.8982 to target 0.9023.
Long 0.9063 to target 0.9104.

Brian Twomey

FX Closing Prices

As a follow up to the last post in regards to Trump’s election victory. Poll after poll reports Biden ahead. Yet view the polls and what is revealed is Democrats are over sampled to Republicans. Likely voters are not sampled. Can anyone believe polls are truly random sampled.


Then comes the weights used and adjusted to probabilities, who are actually sampled from the population. Sample all blacks and over sample Democrats to Republicans then reports are seen Blacks by overwhelming majority favor Biden


Most important for Polls is the Margin of Error. A high Margin of Error reveals few voters were polled and vice versa, a low Margin of Error divulges a larger number of voters were polled. The larger number of voters polled then the better are the results to true poll accuracy.


The Biden polls are sampling at most 1000 voters and this leads to a high margin of error. Polls of the type are wrong and reveal nothing.


Close price forecasts as we look ahead to next week’s trades.


USD/CAD 1.3268 and a decent long ahead next week.
EUR/USD 1.1704. Another week in a tough position.


GBP/USD 1.2886 assumes 1.2822 holds. Decent to longs.
GBP/CHF. 1.1913. Problem as ranges went dead so don’t expect much next week. Yet GBP/CHF holds support for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY.


EUR/JPY 123.49 assumes 122.98 holds. Also decent longs.
GBP/JPY . 135.67. This price warns to caution to EUR/JPY holding 122.98.


AUD/USD 0.7114. Good longs.
NZD/USD 0.6602. Good longs


EUR/AUD. 1.6363. Terrible position ad may means AUD/USD is vulnerable to lower.
GBP/AUD 1.8048. The reverse story to AUD/USD vulnerable to lower prices next week.


EUR/NZD 1.7689. Decent long and same story as AUD. Means caution to NZD/USD higher.
GBP/NZD 1.9453. Opposite story to EUR/NZD and NZD/USD lower.


AUD/JPY. 75.32 to 75.08. Good position. Says AUD/USD higher next week on track.


Overall prices for the past roughly 3 weeks are functioning normally and expected to hold this normal position for many weeks t come. Normality began when EUR/USD dropped to 1.1900’s and 1.1800’s.


Last note. GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, PLN/HUF and USD/PLN weekly trades all achieves targets and reversals. PLN/HUF and USD/PLN achieved +1000 pips alone.

Brian Twomey

The 2020 Election and Trump Victory

As stated at the start of Trump’s term, the objective for Trump is to put the sledge hammer down on the Democrats or his 4 year term will be in jeopardy to success.

Instead of the sledge hammer, Trump deployed a small hammer and finessed his successes by policy triumphs in tax breaks, eliminate regulations on the economic side and eradication of Obummer care, oil independence and a slew of accomplishments to numerous to list. Business and the masses benefited economically from Trump policies.

Trump’s second leg to policy achievements was the constant communication to the masses and the masses reciprocated by massive Trump support.

Coupled with every policy attainment and mass support, Trump eliminated the Democrats in the policy process and success brought a massive distinction between Republicans and anachronistic Democrats.

Trump’s greatest failure and now a problem for the 2020 elections is not prosecute the Democrats for treason and numerous felonies committed in the 2016 election. Trump should’ve released all the documents hidden on purpose in government agencies such as the State Department, CIA, FBI, DOJ.

Traditional Republicans never were strong fighters against the Democrats dating to Lincoln in the 1860’s. Republicans never fought against America’s greatest enemies: Wilson, F Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson otherwise America would be in a far greater place economically, culturally and socially than it is today.

Non prosecution and Democrat’s ability to escape treason and felonies, now leads to a far broader Republican problem to mail in ballots. Historically and holds today is the Democrats are clearly the smartest yet most evil organization ever formed in world history.

The Democrats know at this stage they can’t win elections nor would America accept Democrat policies. The Democrats face the challenge as they did when Republican presidents ruled from 1861 to Wilson in 1912. Literally 50 years of Republican Rule and the time of building America to the modern day from the ashes of the Civil War.

Democrat Plans

Nov 3 on election day, every street corner in America will see protesters, riots and destruction as never seen before. Black Lives Matter over last months was a trial run.

The derivation of Black Lives Matter. Occupy Wall Street and many other groups was the result of America’s Bummmer when he established during his presidency Community organizer companies. The organizations lack no shortage of people to sign up for $20 per hour and retain all stolen merchandise.

We’ve seen this story before in America when the Democrats stole the southern United States from total Republican control from the 1860′ s to 1890’s. The Democrats released the KKK, militia and Gun Groups to stand at voter precincts to force votes for Democrats. Republican officeholders were threatened with death if they failed to drop out of political races against Democrats. Many lost their lives and many fled their home states. Democrats held the south 80 years from the 1890’s to 1972 and Nixon’s Southern Strategy.

Election Scenarios

In the event of a Electoral tie vote and this maybe possible to a Biden win, then Article 2, Section 1, Clause 3 says a tie vote goes to the House of Representatives for a vote. The Democrats control the house and would vote Biden as President. This scenario was always my choice as Democrat strategy to elect Biden. Not necessarily by Electoral votes but find a way to throw the race to the House to vote Biden by a differential to popular vs Electoral votes.

We’ve seen this story 4 times in America’s history and the last was the 1877 race between Democrat Tilden vs Republican Rutherford B Hayes. Tilden won the popular and Electoral votes to become president but Republicans challenged the votes in 3 southern states, Florida, Louisiana and South Carolina and by a vote from the newly formed Electoral Commission, Hayes was voted President.

Democrats agreed to Hayes as President provided Hayes removed Federal troops from the South and eliminate Republican’s Reconstruction of the South. Well this gave Democrats full control to the south in electoral victories as Governors, Mayors and City Councils.

Contingent Elections

In the case of an Electoral College deadlock or if no candidate receives the majority of votes, a “contingent election” is held. The Election of president then goes to the House of Representatives.

Democrat demands today are Puerto Rico and Washington DC to become states, eliminate the Electoral College and more elected Senators to California.

The Electoral College is a mainstay since America’s beginning. Its what made America a Republic rather than a Democracy. Eliminate the Electoral College then only the popular vote survives to Presidential victories. This transforms America into a Democracy with ability to buy votes by office seekers. Th Electoral vote however is binding by law as Electors must vote the leading vote getter from each state.

The Democrats tried many times in the 1970’s to eliminate the Electoral College and failed specifically in the 91st Congress from 1969 to 1971.

California’s 50 + million people are represented by 1 Senator and California is a total Democrat State since 1992. The Democrats want 5 Senators. For California, Puerto Rico and Washington DC to become states and more representation to California, Congress must change the borders to create Federal districts.

Democrats crooked plan is the usual bully approach as they must overwhelm the system with Democrat Votes to claim the electoral system doesn’t work, its illegitimate, faulty. Democrats will claim see all the protestors in favor of Biden. Those are just ordinary citizens. Trump is the bully because he won’t leave the Presidency. Democrats will claim victory at every turn.

Can the Courts decide this election. The question is can anybody distinguish between legitimate Vs faulty votes. Democrats have mastered faulty votes throughout their entire existence as a party dating to Jefferson.

They key to votes is Trump must receive an overwhelming majority of electoral votes to defeat Democrats attempt to steal the election by popular vote and only then can courts rule in Trump’s favor as Electoral votes are most binding by Constitutional standards. Courts can’t rule against the Constitution nor rule against electors. Yet an imperative exists to vote Amy Barret to the courts to give Trump a super majority and no chance for defeat.

 

Brian Twomey

 

Weekly Trade Results: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/PLN, PLN/HUF

USD/PLN

USDPLN Weekly trade as Posted 

Short 3.9366 and 3.9455 to target 3.8739 then 3.8694.

 Highs 3.9411, Lows 3.8683

Target Perfect

Trade Runs +728 pips

target complete

USD/PLN 2nd and 3rd Legs

 Long 3.8694 to target 3.8829.

Short 3.8471 to target 3.8113.

We shooting for Long 3.8694 to target 3.8829 

 

GBP/USD

2nd 3rd legs traded

Long above 1.2819 to target 1.2953

Highs 1.2931

Trade ran 112 pips

Short 1.2953 to target 1.2853

Lows 1.2827

Trade from 1.2931 to 1.2827, +104 pips

2 trades, 1 day +216 pips.

 

GBP/JPY

2nd Leg Traded

Long above 135.82 to target 136.93

Highs 136.24

Trade Running +42 Pips

PLN/HUF

Short 80.86 and 80.96 to target 80.05.

Highs 80.64 and just entered short

Trade ongoing

 

3 trades, 2 days, +944 Pips

 

Brian Twomey

 

Weekly Trades: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/PLN, PLN/HUF

At least 20+ currency pairs begin the week sitting either on solid supports or strong resistance points above. EUR/USD 1.1609 Vs USD/JPY 105.96 for example. Both are exact opposite pairs. NZD/USD 0.6557 Vs AUD/USD 0.7066. AUD/JPY 74.84 Vs EUR/JPY 122.98. Prices at vital price points contain ability to fly either way.

Not much happening with currency prices to trade from the open as patience is required this week to wait on our entry points.
PLN/HUF is deeply overbought short, medium and long term and encompasses a long term target at 76.19 from current 79.88. PLN/HUF arrives at 76.19 upon breaks at 79.85 and 77.28.

Despite a lofty target, PLN/HUF target will take time as weekly ranges are fairly dead within `100 pip weekly moves. By trading PLN/HUF is the same as trading USD/PLN only a slim down version as weekly pip ranges are small compared to 800 and 100o pip weekly ranges to USD/PLN. A low Vs high range currency pairs.

For PLN/HUF is overbought as well as USD/PLN. PLN/HUF will assist to bring down USD/PLN this week.
GBP pairs this week are best to overall trades while the remainder pairs must wait for the breaks to occur.

PLN/HUF

Short 80.86 and 80.96 to target 80.05.
Short 79.85 to target 78.83
Long 78.83 to target 79.54.
Long 80.05 to target 80.45.

USD/PLN

Short 3.9366 and 3.9455 to target 3.8739 then 3.8694.
Short 3.8471 to target 3.8113.
Long 3.8113 to target 3.8024.
Long 3.8694 to target 3.8829.

GBP/USD

Long 1.2687 and 1.2670 to target 1.2803
Long above 1.2819 to target 1.2953
Short 1.2953 to target 1.2853
short 1.2803 to target 1.2754.

GBP/JPY

Long 134.07 and 133.92 to target 135.66
Long above 135.82 to target 136.93
Short 136.93 to target 136.14
short 135.66 to target 134.87. Long only strategy.

 

Brian Twomey

Weekly Trade Results: AUD/USD and AUD/JPY

AUDUSD and AUDJPY Weekly Trade Results

Noted after the fact to Posted trade instructions was not fully complete nor mentioned to overall price Paths.

AUDUSD 1st leg +124 pips to 0.7193.


2nd leg
long from 0.7193 to 0.7279 profit +33 pips but failed to achieve target.

Here’s full instruction not posted.

Short 0.7107 to target 0.6993. 
AUDUSD Broke 0.7107 and lows 0.7028 so far.
The break 0.7107 meant 0.7193 longs were in trouble for 86 pips.
But 0.7107 to 0.7028 +79 pips.
A wash out but remains +124 pips from original trade.

                                  AUDJPY

 Longs from week’s start at 75.94 and 76.08 profit 44 pips.

Mistake to not post full price path to break 75.46 then short to target 74.49.

Lows 73.99 or Running +50 pips.

Break 75.46 meant longs from 75.94 were in trouble. by 58 pips. yet the break short at 75.46 runs +50 pips so another wash out trade.

JPY Cross pairs as mentioned began in a position to an interesting week and they didn’t fail us to interesting.

JPY cross pairs became leader currencies this week.
Go figure that happening and the answer is hardly ever, especially a dull pair  as USDJPY and a pair not worth a click for last few years.

                  Brian Twomey