EUR, ECB, GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD

USD deeply overbought and non USD currencies massive oversold and a wide divide between USD and Non. EUR/USD at 1.2000’s and DXY at 89.00’s was the reverse scenario as USD massive oversold Vs non USD richter scale overbought and a wide divide existed between both.


Trades went from Non USD shorts and USD longs to today’s, USD shorts and non USD longs.
As written yesterday, USD/PLN achieved 3.8700 lows for +300 pips, USD/CAD achieved 1.2579, USD/DKK runs + 100 pips, USD/RON +100 pips and USD/HRK +200 pips.


EM as USD contains a long way to drop as 2 and 300 pips is just the start to overall lower targets.
Weekly commentary, JPY cross pairs higher. JPY cross pairs traded higher and to maintain shorts on a short only strategy. CHF/JPY break 119.60 then much lower to trade to 118.00’s. JPY cross pair shots remain the gifts that keep on giving for toms of free money.


GBP/AUD for the week achieved 1.8561 lows from 1.8690’s and 1.8680’s. Today’s supports to break are located at 1.8590 then 1.8533 and 1.8476. Maintain shorts at any price in the vicinity of 1.8700’s to target 1.8590 then 1.8533.

Currently no such concept to GBP/AUD 1.9000’s exist. Its charlatan fantasy among many charlatan delusions. Impossible to take an overbought currency pair long or oversold pair short.


EUR/AUD is the better short trade. AUD/EUR informs today’s EUR/AUD range is located from 1.6090 to 1.5926 which means long at 1.5926 and short at 1.6090.


AUD/EUR 30 ish pips forecasts EUR/AUD 164. Go figure.


EUR/GBP broke 0.8612 and traded to 0.8572 for +40 pips while GBP/USD as written yesterday traded to mid 1.3700’s. GBP/USD higher must break 1.3895 and USD/CAD lower to break 1.2495.
Until breaks are seen in GBP/USD or USD/CAD then higher GBP/USD and lower USD/CAD represents a correction.


2 minutes after the ECB speaks then the information becomes worthless to trades as the message will be located in the market. Tomorrow’s ECB commentary isn’t worth a flip yet nor is today’s words.


EUR/USD 5 vital levels: 1.1736, 1.1752, 1.1767, 1.1826 and 1.1856. Short the highs and long the lows. Any price if seen above 1.1856 is a free money gift offered by mr market. Never expected and rarely seen but it just be made available.


What we see today is a day trade, 50 pips and 100 if traders and the ECB are feeling lucky.

Brin Twomey

Long EUR/USD, Short USD

Current USD is not only deeply overbought but its matched by deeply oversold Non USD to include EM. EUR/USD from 1.1700 targets low to high 1.1800 easily, GBP/USD 1.3700’s, AUD/USD target 0.7423, NZD/USD 0.7000’s.


Best trade opportunities are located in EM USD beginning with USD/PLN from 3.9000’s to target 400 pips lower to 1.8600’s, USD/DKK targets 6.2800’s from 6.3100’s , USD/RON targets 1.1500’s from 1.1800’s, USD/HRK targets 1.3400’s from 1.3900’s.


Overall EM as USD is overbought by easily 3 to 400 pips and this places G28 currencies oversold and overbought by 150 to 200 pips as targets. USD/CAD still contains a long way to drop to target 1.2578 while USD/JPY and USD/CHF are hardly worth a click as USD/CAD is a far beter trade, moves well and pays more.


As written, GBP/JPY completed 600 pips from 155.00’s, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY achieved 500 pips and 600 pips for CAD/JPY. CHF/JPY at low 119.00;s achieved 300 pips and contains another 400 pip drop to 115.00’s. Clearly we are nailing FX as is normally done throughout the years.


USD/JPY massive supports to travel lower are located at 109.32 and 109.10. Watch those yields. The 10 year yield yesterday rise 5 points while USD/JPY traded 39 pips. Hardly worth the effort or energy to pen and paper.


Massive overbought USD/CHF must break 0.9141 to travel lower and short only strategy.
EUR/AUD target 1.5800’s from current 1.6100’s while continuation to short GBP/AUD highs. Completed 4 GBP/AUD trades in the past 1 1/2 weeks and running nearly 400 pips and overall target to mid 1.8500’s.


GBP/USD higher when EUR/GBP breaks below 0.8612.


EUR/USD overall contains a long only strategy ECB or no ECB until at least mid 1.1800’s trade and no matter how long it takes. The ECB sees traders coming as they prepare their script. They just might offer 50 pips and in one direction, a dam day trade.


Overall, USD and non USD currencies trade at extremes and this will take time to correct.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and M3 Money Supplies

Thursday’s ECB is a question to the 35 day Maintenance period as mandated by all central banks to meet every 35 days or 6 weeks. The number 35 as a moving average is the mid point to the 20 and vital 50 day average.


Vital to the ECB message is stumulate or no stumulus, taper or no taper and overall a commentary to the ECB’s M3 money supplies. A Futures contract is a trade based on Money supplies as highlighted in 2017, 2018 and 2020. While most trade the currency spot price, the futures price is most influenced by the Futures price and the commonality to both is M3.


The ECB message Thursday is a trade in money supplies and the prime mover to not only EUR/USD by every currency on the planet.


EUR/USD yesterday traded 224, 941 contracts or 224,951 X $5,000 per contract = 1,124, 705, 000.


224,941 X 100,000 Euros per contract = 1,147, 199.00. The question to 1,147, 199.00 is what is the M3 money supply figure and is this figure to high or to low.


Traders pay 1,124, 705,000 to trade 1,147, 199.


A comparison from 2014 and 2017 to 2021


In May 2014, EUR/USD began its descent from 1.3900 while the money supply was 10 billion. By September 2014, EUR/USD traded 1,.27000’s. EUR/USD trades today at 1.1200’s Vs 11 billion money supply.


200,000 EUR/USD Futures contracts X $5,000 per contract = 1,000,000,000 billion or 1 billion.


200,000 EUR/USD contracts X 100,000 Euros per contract = 20,000,000,000 or 20 billion.


Traders paid 1 billion to trade 20 billion or 9 billion above M3. M2 at 10,876 billion means trading 2x to 20 billion. M1 at 7390 means trading almost 3 times to 20 billion.


Overall 200,000 + Contract Volume was quantified as far to high and what reinforces this concept is 20 billion is to high. Futures contracts should trade directly around current money supplies.


Eurozone M3 in 2014 was 10,108 billion. March 2017, M3 was 11,581 billion. In 3 years, M3 increased by 1,473 billion.


Since 2014, Eurozone’sM3 money supply exploded higher. In 2014, EUR/USD traded at 1.1200’s and achieved highs in 2021 to 1.2300’s as a result to money supply expansion but more so as 10 and 11 billion was miles below the Fed’s M3. The ECB’s goal as stated in 2017, 2018 nd 2020 was to meet M3 to the Fed. And this was achieved.

  The Trade

An overbought M3 money supply drops EUR/USD while oversold raises EUR/USD.


Current EUR/USD is at richter scale oversold and should trade to high 1.1800’s, low 1.1900’s to normalize.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and 5 year Averages

When EUR/USD broke its 5 year average at 1.1400’s in August 2020, EUR/USD rampaged 900 pips to achieve 1.2300’s highs 6 months later by February 2021 or 150 pips per month. Each month, EUR/USD traded the worst market condition by trading higher into overbought. EUR/USD contained 4 up monthly candles vs 2 monthly candles as a correction for 400 pips from 1.2000’s to 1.1600. Then EUR/USD exploded to 1.2300 high 3 months later.


As shown many times, EUR/USD as a highly neutral currency pair, always corrects not only to neutrality but full trends always reverse. From 1.2300 highs, EUR/USD corrected 600 pips in 6 months to 1.1700’s and now threatens to break below the 5 year average at current 1.1454.

EUR/USD from 1.2300 highs took 6 months to achieve 1.1700 lows while highs from 1.1400’s to 1.2300’s took 6 months.


Current EUR/USD sits at massive oversold as EUR/USD seasonality is well underway. EUR/USD general seasonality trends runs from up moves in May and June to run to December and January then EUR/USD drops to May/ June lows and begins its next seasonal up move.


Suspected seasonality trends are based on government budgets as the European Parliament usually passes budgets in November and December and possibly explains the 6 month down move by May of the next year as cheap Euros are spent to fund the government while a premium is placed on Euros from May to November as the remainder of government budgets are spent to fund government.


The question to currency markets is will 5 year averages break lower. Massive oversold AUD/USD’s 5 year average is located at 0.7326, NZD/USD at 0.6859.


GBP/USD’s 5 year average is located at 1.3039 and USD/CAD at 1.3085 while GBP/JPY 10 year is located at 149.11 and a big break and 79.93 for AUD/JPY’s 5 year average and 74.82 for NZD/JPY’s 5 year average.


GBP/CHF today broke below its 5 year average at 1.2613 and USD/JPY at 109.07. GBP/CHF break will assure further down moves for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY and all JPY cross pairs.


Overall non USD currencies as EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD are massive oversold while USD/CAD and EM as USD/EM are the opposite at massive overbought.


As written, USD/BRK achieved 5.1500′ s from 5.1110’s for a quick +500 pips.


If EUR/USD sits at deep oversold during ECB then long is the only trade strategy and the same scenario highlighted for NZD and RBNZ. What ECB says doesn’t matter as EUR contains only longs.

EUR/USD levels from 1.1454 then 1.1647, 1.1705, 1.1854, 1.1915, 1.1942, 1.2020, 1.2028 and 1.2085

Brian Twomey

USD/JPY V DXY, USD/CHF and Gold

As shown in the last post was the profound fallacy to the USD/JPY and USD Yield relationship for any and all USD/JPY trade consideration to entry and target. The same scenario exists for example to USD/JPY and Europe or UK yields which move in the opposite direction as USD yields. USD/JPY trade consideration is non existent to entry and target.

Yields are now and have been for quite some time a dead range trade instrument and killed off by no movements to interest rates, particularly overnight rates.

Such an abysmal failure to USD/JPY trade consideration to entry and target and Yields is seen before every traders eyes directly from the chart and easily factored and assessed. But here we have the leading FX Retail leaders to inform from the delusion of the chart in regards to USD/JPY and yields. USD/JPY goes green then yields go green and vice versa so it must be true. Yet nobody checked.

Maybe the concept was designed to misinform but this assumes market knowledge and this is not the case in today’s world of trading as +90% of traders are addicted to charts and indicators for all trade consideration.

My personal quest is to find traders to teach and learn market and fX concepts not already known to advance my own skills and knowledge. Found was another ephemeral concept to FX knowledge as charts and indicators rule the day.

USD/JPY Last Week

Monday = 109.76 to 110.39 or 63 pips

Tuesday = 110.19 to 110.65 or 46 pips

Wednesday 110.68 to 109.93 or 75 pips.

Thursday 109.71 to 110.09 or 38 pips

Friday 109.71 to 110.33 or 62 pips.

DXY

Monday = 92.11 to 92.41 or 30 pips

Tuesday 92.15 to 92.82 or 67 pips

Wednesday 92.83 to 92.35 or 48 pips

Thursday 92.26 to 92.68 or 42 pips

Friday 92.75 to 92.53 or 21 pips

USD/CHF

Monday 37 pips

Tuesday 55 pips

Wednesday 58 pips

Thursday 74 pips

Friday 37 pips.

USD/JPY Monday at 63 pips beat 37 pips USD/CHF and DXY 30 pips by almost 2 times.

Tuesday DXY 67 pips and USD/CHF 55 pips beat USD/JPY at 46 pips.

Wednesday USD/JPY 75 pips beat USD/CHF 58 and DXY 48

Thursday DXY 42 pips and USD/CHF 74 beat USD/JPY 38 pips.

Friday USD/JPY 62 pips beat DXY 21 and USD/CHF 37 pips.

USD/JPY outperformed USD/CHF and DXY Monday, Wednesday and Friday while DXY and USD/CHF outperformed USD/JPY Tuesday and Thursday.

USD/CHF outperformed DXY Monday by 7 pips, Wednesday by 10 pips, Thursday by 32 pips and Friday by 16 pips.

DXY outperformed USD/CHF Tuesday by 12 pips as the only time last week and outperformed USD/JPY Tuesday by 21 pips and Thursday by 4 pips.

USD/JPY moved overall total of 284 pips, DXY 208 pips and USD/CHF 261 pips.

The underperformer is DXY and overachiever USD/JPY.

Instead of yields and lead the trading public astray and to trade a tough concept as 2 financial instruments from 2 separate market instruments , the answer to exchange rates to trade correct entries and targets is by prediction from other exchange rates.

USD/JPY, USD/CHF and DXY is the story of an old FX concept and the great rotation. USD/JPY takes turns in relation to USD/CHF and DXY to out or underperform. An outperformance to DXY and USD/CHF equates to an underperformance to USD/JPY while an outperformance to USD/JPY leads to an underperformance to USD/CHF and DXY.

USD/CAD as the overachiever easily outperforms USD/JPY, USD/CHF and DXY by nearly 1/2. If DXY, USD/CHF or USD/JPY trades 50 pips for example, USD/CAD trades 100.

USD/CAD as the overachiever I suspect is more closely aligned to EM currencies such as USD/PLN rather than DXY, USD/CHF and USD/JPY. EM currencies as USD/Other Currency this week are at massive overbought along with USD/CAD. Nothing special exists to USD/CHF and USD/JPY this week yet rarely if ever is a good weekly trade seen on Monday. Those trades usually come Tuesday or Wednesday.

GOLD

Monday 18 pips

Tuesday 19 pips

Wednesday 25 pips

Thursday 14 pips

Friday 22 pips

Weekly range total 43 pips as Wednesday and Friday were best days as was the case for DXY and USD/CHF.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly

Overbought GBP/AUD correlates to GBP/USD at 5% and -91% to AUD/USD. Deeply oversold GBP/USD and AUD/USD Correlate together at a low +35%. GBP/AUD is correct to AUD/USD.

GBP/AUD 2 big lines below located at 1.8316 and 1.8320 while the top is located at 1.8950. Short is the only trade.

AUD/USD 5 year average approaches at 0.7326 from the close at 0.7391.

Oversold USD/JPY matches oversold to JPY cross pairs while USD/CHF sits dead above vital 0.9133. USD/CAD as opposite currency to USD/JPY and USD/CHF, begins the week miles overbought.

Gold traded 43 points last week from 1.1791.59 to 1835.01. Gold’s best trade day was Wednesday at 25 points, Friday ay 22 and 19 points Tuesday.

Week 2 to deep oversold EUR/USD as long is the only trade strategy as well as AUD/USD.

USD for EM is again deeply overbought beginning with USD/DKK, USD/HRK, USD/HUF is massive overbought, USD/MYR and USD/RON, Great short for USD/PLN,

USD/TRY and USD/ZAR are both deeply oversold while USD/CNY holds above vital 6.4656. Nothing special to USD/BRL as longs are located at 5.1071 and 5.0815 to target 5.1585 easily.

Trade strategy for above overbought pairs are short anywhere as entry doesn’t matter.

Note USD/CAD massive overbought follows USD for EM while USD/JPY and USD/CHF are trackers to DXY rather than EM.

Brian Twomey

USD/JPY and Yields

USD/JPY yesterday traded 43 pips from 110.20 to 110.63.

USD/JPY actually traded 0.43 pips. But each USD/JPY pip is worth 0.01 or 0.01 hundred. Factor 0.43 X 100 = 43 pips or 43.0

Yields from 2 to 30 year traded higher by 0.08 points or 0.08 hundred. Factor 0.08 X 100 = 8 points or 8.0

Yields traded higher in unison but this isn’t always the case. The 2 year yield may rise but 20 or 30 yield may fall or vice versa. These days of trading, unison to yields appears common practice.

2 year yield = 0.2270 to 0.2584 or 3 points at 0.03 then 0.03 X 100 = 3 points or 3.0

Note 43 USD/JPY and 3 points to 2 year yields.

3 Year Yield = 0.4202 to 0.4766 or 0.05 points then 0.05 X 100 = 5 points or 5.0

5 Year yield = 0.7847 to 0.8476 or 0.06 points then 0.06 X 100 = 6 points or 6.0

7 year yield = 1.1026 to 1.1656 or 0.06 points then 0.06 X 100 = 6 points or 6.0

10 year yield = 1.3480 to 1.4180 or 0.07 points then 0.07 X 100 = 7 points or 7.0

20 year Yield 1.8866 to 1.9705 or 0.08 points then 0.08 X 100 = 8 points or 8.0 points

30 year yield = 1.960 to 2.049 or 0.08 points then 0.08 X 100 = 8 points or 8.0 points

Basis Points

USD/JPY at 43 pips may easily state 43 basis points or 43% by 43 divide by 100 = 0.43 or 43%.

Yields may also factor to Basis points then to percentages.

The 2 year yield moved 3 points then divide by 100 = 3%

The 3 year yield moved 5 points then divide by 100 = 5%

The 5 Year yield moved 6 points then divide by 100 = 6%

The 7 year yield moved 6 points then divide by 100 = 6%

The 10 year Yield moved 7 points then divide by 100 = 7%

The 20 year yield moved 8 points then divide by 100 = 8%

The 30 year yield moved 8 points then divide by 100 = 8%.

USD/JPY moved 43% and the highest yield at the 20 and 30 year explains 8% of USD/JPY’s 43%.

USD/JPY at 43 pips accounts for 8 points at the highest 20 and 30 year yield moves.

What about the remainder 35 pips. The extra 35 pips doesn’t explain, account nor factor to yields for a trade, an entry, target or anything remotely close to USD/JPY pips, points or percentages.

Yet another bill of goods sold to the trading public.

For interested see this site for Yield Methodologies and tons of more articles to yields both from a single nation and comparison to other nations as I beat this topic to a pulp.

As I realized from those articles and research long ago, yields to currency prices is a crock of garbage and it doesn’t work. The old days, pre 2016 then was a different story.

After 2016, yields de coupled from currency prices as nations looked inward to revise interest rates and this contained a drastic effect to nation yields and to comparison from nation to nation yields.

Take USD/CAD for example. Not much difference ever existed from Canada and US yields and this was the beauty to long and short trades for USD/CAD.

if for example, USD 2 or 3 year yields cross above CAD 2 or 3 year yields then long. If US 2 or 3 year yield crossed below CAD 2 or 3 year yield then short.

Then apply the methods above to factor the target from percentages or points. Or use monthly or daily averages to yields then factor yields to the currency price by note of the support or resistance points.

Today and trading is much different for me personally as past years of research led to streamline to trades by using only methods that work. I eliminated the bad that doesn’t work then figured the methods that did work and worked it to my trade advantage.

May sound easy but I assure all, its not easy at all however in the end, I made it easy as I understand what I didn’t know before.

Brian Twomey

CHF/JPY VS USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD

CHF/JPY is derived by USD/JPY divide USD/CHF. The past 3 month range 122.77 to 118.84 or 393 pips. USD/JPY past 3 month range 108.33 to 111.65 or 332 pips.

CHF/JPY current 120.46 and USD/JPY 110.32 or 1014 pip spread. My own research effort here.

Correlations

USD/JPY Vs CHF/JPY +90%, USD/JPY Vs USD/CAD -56%, USD/JPY Vs USD/CHF +81%

USD/CHF Vs CHF/JPY +50%, USD/CHF Vs USD/CAD -0.03%

USD/CAD Vs CHF/JPY -82%

USD/CAD continues to trade opposite USD/CHF, USD/JPY and CHF/JPY. USD/CAD is consistent to all JPY cross pairs as a long in USD/CAD means shorts to JPY cross pairs and shorts to USD/CAD means long to JPY cross pairs.

CHF/JPY and USD/JPY +90% Correlations means USD/JPY and CHF/JPY are the exact same pairs and represent double trades for longs and shorts.

USD/CAD is a great currency pair and operates correctly. USD/CHF and USD/JPY lack to ranges as ranges are short and severely compressed. USD/CHF on a long term basis is actually oversold with a 0.9303 target from current 0.9158.

USD/JPY and CHF/JPY are clear shorts with a short only strategy as all averages for both pairs point uniformly lower.

CHF/JPY averages as follows: 115.90, 114.62, 111.96 and 109.47

USD/JPY averages: 108.53, 108.87, 106.75 and 106.04.

Quadrants

Both USD/JPY and CHF/JPY trade in the 1st quadrant

1 to 4 Quadrant correlations: +43%, +30%, +87% and +79%. This means averages responsible for USD/JPY and CHF/JPY moves are USD/JPY 106.75 and 106.04 Vs CHF/JPY 111.96 and 109.47. Both CHF/JPY and USD/JPY are overbought.

USD/CHF Vs DXY

USD/CHF 0.9161 current Vs DXY 92.34 or 0.9234 or 73 pip differential

USD/JPY Vs DXY 1802 pip differential.

CHF/JPY

Lower must break 119.78 then watch out below. . Overall target is 115.32. Must breaks lower at 118.83, 117.20 and 116.45.

CHF/JPY day trade bottom today 120.02 then higher.

USD/JPY

Lower must break 109.39, 109.07, 108.53 and 108.87. Longer range target is 109.14 and just the start to much lower.

USD/JPY day trade bottom 109.81 then higher.

I seem to be running long term views as 14 currency pairs are now complete and `14 more to go if I run all 28 currencies.

Brian Twomey

GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD

To all friends, followers and many, many long time friends: Many thank you’s for support.

Lazer beam focus to AUD/USD and NZD/USD and cross pairs. Cross pairs for AUD/USD means AUD/JPY, AUD/CHF, AUD/CAD however no interest in AUD/CAD. To continue, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD.

NZD/USD means NZD/JPY, NZD/CHF and no interest in NZD/CAD. Then EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD.

AUD/USD and AUD/CHF both massive oversold while EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD massive overbought. and all correct. AUD/JPY is along for the ride.

NZD/USD oversold, NZD/CHF massive oversold, EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD massive overbought and all correct. NZD/JPY like AUD/JPY heading lower however this week both are along for the ride.

GBP/AUD all averages point miles lower and this means overall, the direction and trade strategy is short. A retail currency analyst, Giles Coughlan says long to 1.8700’s. Incompetent Giggles is miles wrong.

GBP/AUD is massive overbought from lower averages at 1.8200’s and 1.8300’s. It trades in the 4th quadrant while AUD/USD and GBP/USD trade in 3rd quadrants.

EUR/AUD approaches a big line at 1.5960 and lower averages are located at 1.5754 and 1.5682. Interesting EUR/AUD trades in 1st quadrant, GBP/AUD in 4th, AUD/USD and GBP/USD in 3rd.

Not sure what this quadrant deal means yet but often wondered to a cross placed on a chart. A chart means any time frame from 1 hour to monthlies.

GBP/AUD by design contains a wider range than EUR/AUD and this week is responsible to determine EUR/AUD direction. Both are heading miles lower. Certain weeks, EUR/AUD determines GBP/AUD direction however for trade purposes, its not necessary to evaluate EUR/AUD Vs GBP/AUD for trades or direction.

Necessary is to factor the trades for entries and targets and that’s all.

Massive overbought GBP/AUD at current lofty levels is the result of deeply oversold AUD/USD and this alignment must correct as AUD/USD higher and GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD much lower. If AUD/USD trades lower into deeper oversold would drive GBP/AUD higher and conceivably, 1.8700 and 1.8900’s can trade easily however, the trade is short.

NZD oversold, EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD overbought. GBP/NZD the granddaddy of FX and big moves contains a wider range by design than EUR/NZD. It moves and earns the money. Same as GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD. Certain weeks, EUR/NZD is the driver and better trade than GBP/NZD while other weeks, GBP/NZD is the better trade and driver.

What determines the trades and drivers overall is the positions or locations of the prices.

RBNZ should provide good trades and it doesn’t matter what they say as NZD must correct higher as well as EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD lower. RBNZ should provide the trades.

USD/PY follow up. 109.42 and 109.07 breaks lower Vs EUR/USD 1.1964 means USD/JPY breaks lower than the USD/JPY Vs EUR/USD alignment would again remain off balance. Current USD/JPY above and EUR/USD below rectifies the many months off balance to this relationship.

More later

Brian Twomey

Brian Twomey Blog

Dear friends,

Plans are to maintain this site for the normal yearly routines since 2012 of education, trading and interesting market developments by feature articles. I’m independent and allowed to speak and write freely here.

FX Street and all the crooked websites as well as incompetent contributors losing readers money can go straight to hell where they belong. No benefit exist to write on those sites, especially the content I wrote as I’m seeing the Fx retail leaders picking up on my past content. I don’t have any use for all this. FX Street is constantly viewing my site here.

If I see views fail and its not worth the effort to write, then I’m gonzo however multitudes have been very loyal here and its most appreciated but I also understand as I advanced myself to trades and market understanding beyond my intentions 17 years ago. All I wanted then was not to be a loser. Today, I’m not a loser.

Not to be a loser took many many years and many years of weekends. Its impossible to cone out with a chart and indicator with a few years experience to believe success is guaranteed. The currency price is far to complicated and takes many, many years to understand and master then apply the correct knowledge.

I’ll be glad to assist anybody in whatever it is all are doing and answer any questions, anytime.

This blog doesn’t earn 5 cents nor was it ever the intention to profit. It was designed to write my stuff. I always wanted to show much more to markets, trades and understanding but I don’t have the electronic reach as these young kids represented as traders, analysts and trade services.

All I offer are trades for interested.

Nothing more to say so thank you to all very much

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, JPY Cross Pairs

Trades this week contains a lazer focus on NZD/USD, AUD/USD and associated cross pairs. Significant NZD/USD averages are located at 0.6863, 0.6893 Vs 0.7030, 0.7063 and 0.7082.

AUD/USD averages are located at 0.7345, 0.7450 Vs 0.7741 and 0.7862.
To move higher, AUD/USD must break 0.7596.


Interesting to AUD/USD at 0.7862 is this average hardly changed in 3 years. Was once 0.7802 for years and rose 62 pips.


Both NZD/USD and AUD/USD trade at 2nd quadrants to beat this topic further and contains much trading ranges to profit.


GBP/USD main averages are located at 1.3375, 1.3492, 1.3872 and 1.4303. GBP/USD trades at the 3rd quadrant and targets lower at 1.3680 then 1.3760.


GBP/USD 1.4303 at the 2016 Brexit vote was 1.5800’s as the average dropped 1500 pips in 5 years or 300 pips per year.


JPY Cross Pairs


GBP/JPY main averages are located at 145.20, 146.87, 147.62 and 151.25. GBP/JPY closed at 153.07. Short is the only way forward and GBP/USD will assist to GBP/JPY 400 pip drop to follow by targets at 152.06, 151.95, 151.81, 151.25 then easily 150.28 and much lower.


CAD/JPY main averages 84.59, 84.99, 85.46, and 86.29. Any price at or above 88.57 is perfect for shorts to target a break at 88.24 to then target 87.52, 87.45 and 87.34. USD/CAD is the main driver to determine CAD/JPY. Note CAD/JPY 200 pip lower target.


NZD/JPY requires a sustained break below 77.48 to target 75.44 and 75.10 and 200 pips lower.
AUD/JPY requires a sustained break below 83.11 to target below 82.60 then 82.01, 81.01 and 79.73.


EUR/JPY 127.00’s and 126.00 are currently solid and targets 129.52, 129.07 and 128.36.
Short only strategies is the only way forward for JPY cross pairs. The assistance lower for JPY cross pairs will derive from drops to USD/JPY as USD/JPY averages are unsupported at 110.00’s and 111.00’s.

Best JPY cross pairs are CHF/JPY, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY


USD/JPY main 2 averages are located at 109.42 and 109.07. Overall, USD/JPY averages are dropping from short, medium and longer term.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, 4 Quadrants, Congestion Zones

A long held view to chart pictures but never investigated in depth was to draw a cross in the middle of the chart to highlight 4 quadrants. The 1st and 4th quadrants represent extreme prices on the fringe and a trend. The 2 and 3rd quadrants represent undecided zones, congestion zones, dead mover price zones where a price can easily travel higher or lower based on a significant break of an MA.


Currency prices for many pairs find significant averages today in the 3rd quadrant. The major question to long or short trade signals is the range of prices.
The 3rd quadrant is interesting as currency and assumed all financial market prices are dead movers yet located in the 3rd quadrant.


For technical analysis afficionados, Eugene Nofri wrote Success in Commodities: The Congestion Phase System in 1980 as a 30 year Floor Trader at the CBOT and the book was re introduced by Eugene’s daughter, Jeanette Nofri Steinberg. A very nice woman and highly successful trader over many years. Eugene began his trading time in 1946 to 1976 ish.


A quick recap to the system is located in the Journal of Technical Analysis and by me in a long article written 15 ish years ago called the Congestion Phase System. I didn’t know I’m not only in the book but all over the book’s website and Amazon.


Here’s EURUSD for example from 1st to 4th quadrants: 1.1705, 1.1645, 1.1859 and 1.2033. A problem exists at the 1.1645 average in the 2nd quadrant as the average is wrong and should be located higher between 1.1705 and 1.1859. Current 1.1859 decides EUR/USD higher or lower.


The same 4 quadrants is easily viewed from MA averages from 5 to 253 days. The current 200 and 253 day averages are wrong and light in comparison to overall averages.


5 day 1.1850
10 = 1.1859,
20 = 1.1884


50 = 1.2040


100 = 1.2033
200 = 1.2053

253 = 1.2030.


Note to 1.1859 at the 20 day average and 1.2033 at the 100 day. Averages are perfect short and long term.


Dead mover prices is causing Compression or Congestion to averages as prices are compressing to surround current prices. EUR/USD had more 100 pip weeks over many months and stuck to a trend or any direction.


But always remember, EUR/USD trends always reverse. EUR/USD’s run from 1.1400’s to 1.2300’s reversed so far to 1.1700’s. Is 1.1700’s the EUR/USD bottom end or do we test higher again then short. EUR/USD upside traveled 900 pips and dropped 600 and off balance by 300 pips. EUR/USD requires a test of 1.1400’s to balance evenly.


A longer term view is 5 year average= 1.1450, 10 year = 1.2018 and 1.2585 at the 14 year.


The 1st and 2nd quadrants inform short and to pay attention to 1.1858, 1.1921 and 1.1964.


USD/CHF as a proxy for DXY informs deeply oversold and a 0.9300 target from current 0.9136. That’s only 150 ish pips. DXY from 92.10 informs massive hurdles at 95.00’s and bottom at 90.24.

DXY is pretty much dead center and confirms 3rd quadrants as DXY can travel 200 pips lower or 300 higher.

Brian Twomey

CHF/JPY, JPY Cross Pairs, USD/CHF V DXY

CHF/JPY achieved lows at 118.00’s and a target at high 114.00’s to low 115.00’s. As written, all JPY cross pairs contain a 600 pip drop and was led by trending pair CHF/JPY. CHF/JPY shorts from 122.00, now run +400 pips and 400 more pips to target.


If traders shorted all JPY cross pairs then profits are in the + 2000 ish by 5 JPY cross pairs at + 400 pips each. Long way to target and opportunity remains to enter short to any or all JPY cross pairs.
The ridiculous aspect to 400 pips is the wait for 3 months or 135 pips per month. For comparison, the 2018 CHF/JPY trade from 117.00’s to 112.00’s was a 3 week trade for 500 pips and widely posted. Markets in 2021 are dead and dying.


GBP/JPY traded below big break at 151.88 today as GBP/JPY was the last JPY cross pair to hold out to vital breaks. The leader to JPY cross pairs was CHF/JPY then NZD/JPY as NZD/JPY broke below vital points first and continued short and now runs + 400 pips profit.


Worthless USD/JPY would assist to further JPY cross pair downside much quicker on a break at 109.48. Reegardless to USD/JPY as JPY cross pair targets were not only identified months ago but target must by no choice achieve destinations. Encouraging to USD/JPY further downside is massive oversold EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD.


GBP/JPY’s break lower should now see more downside gains to GBP/USD and as written many times, the eventual target for GBP/USD is 1.3500’s. EUR/GBP is oversold.


Overbought USD/CHF as written achieved lows at 0.9192 and our target was 0.9177. Weekly range 0.9265 to 0.9192. or 73 pips. Holding USD/CHF is 0.9146. DXY target at 91.77 achieved 92.01 and a weekly range from 92.01 to 92.92 or 91 pips. USD/CHF 73 weekly pips Vs DXY 91. DXY beat by 18 pips.


USD/HRK as posted completed yesterday.


Short anywhere or 6.3187 and 6.3205 to target 6.2970 easily
Actual 6.3246 to 6.2960
+286 pips
Perfect target


EM total profits this week is now +1600 pips.

10 Yearn Yield


As written, the 10 year yield range was 1.3305 to 1.8448 and 1.3305 just broke below to now range from 1.3305 to 0.805. The range went from 51 points to now 52 pips.


Inflation


Will Inflation rise. If so then stock markets are in for a big tumble. If Inflation drops, stock markets continue to trend upwards.


A suggestion for next week.


Rather than write the weekly bull stuff which has no basis for any market price or trade, write trade requests and I will post. May not go over well yet the rookie traders as the court jesters of FX are coming at you with outdated charts and indicators and won’t profit 5 cents from those outdated methods.

Brian Twomey

AUD/USD and Day Trade Explained

AUD/USD rose 57 pips for RBA and approached 0.7612 then AUD dropped 119 pips to 0.7479 lows. Only upon catastrophe would AUD drop 119 pips at one time. In actuality, AUD dropped 57 pips to day trade end time then 67 pips from vital 10 am time. The ECB dropped AUD by X pips.


To achieve day trade highs at RBA 57 pips and day trade lows at 67 pips requires 2 different sets of information as AUD like all currency prices are Fixed to prices, levels, ranges and targets. Target is a misnomer as day trades are designed for multiple longs and shorts so target is irrelevant to multiple trades as no target exists, only longs and shorts.


To bank 67 pips, ECB information was required. Approximately 23 central banks set day trade prices within a 24 hour trade period to include the 5 pm close time for US markets. For most popular EM currencies, approxmimately 25 central banks set day trade prices.


Every central bank on the planet is responsible to set daily currency prices and many central banks also include currency prices to Gold, Silver and Trade Weight Indices. The central bank of Mongolia offers a daily and terrific breakdown of Brent and USD WTI Oil.


The ECB at 10 am is good for 1 hour of trade then comes London, Frankfurt, Canada’s Noon Day and the FED. The 24 hour process then repeats to new currency prices set by central banks.
Hourly charts are most vital because it captures hourly changes within a 24 hour trade period and aligns to central bank prices.


AUD for the 10 am hour actually dropped 56 pips from 0.7546 to 7490. London dropped AUD 4 pips to 0.7486, Frankfurt dropped AUD 7 pips to 0.7479 while Canada’s Noon day and the Fed rescued AUD from 0.7479 lows to again trade on a new 24 hour clock.


From ECB to the Fed is 2 1/2 hours. From 0.7479 lows from 0.7490 took 2 1/2 hours. Was 11 pips worth the 2 1/2 hour wait time or exit with profits and rest for the day and satisfied with profits.
AUD/USD 57 and 67 pips worked on 2 separate central bank clocks.

Each time a central bank reports prices then the currency pair of interest must re set to the new price clock. This means a re set to levels, ranges and targets. Its out with the old and in with the new as the old price no longer counts. The old price is meaningless and the new price is responsible for movements. New prices maintain constant price movements.


How did AUD/USD really move based on 57 and 67 pips. For current AUD/USD full ranges are worth about 76 pips however ranges change with each central bank, not much or possibly not at all. Only way to know is to enter the new prices. So AUD/USD moved 57 and 67 pips from an approximate total of 76 pips. AUD/USD barely exceeded the 38 pip mid point.


Here’s how AUD/USD moved 57 and 67 pips. The exact pattern price series from the RBA and lows to highs as follows: 4 pips, 5 pips, 5 pips, 4 pips, 5 pips, 5 pips, 4 pips, 5 pips, and 5 pips. AUD and the RBA share a resemblance to NZD and the RBNZ by a price series of 4 and 5 pip patterns.


A definitive price series is known in advance to every currency price and the patterns are written in stone without hardly a daily change. Trade by calculator is turning into trade by count on your fingers.


Every currency pair is different to a daily price series but every currency price is not uniform to a price series. Patterns may run 7 to 8 pips, or 8 to 7, 9 to 8 pips. All depends on the currency pair. Wider range currency pairs contain wider price patterns.


AUD/USD today contains 5 vital points: 0.7463, 0.7482, 0.7489, 0.7520 and 0.7539.
Not only is a daily price series known in advance to day trades but Fibonacci numbers contains no place to insert within the series. On 67 pips, the 38% mark equates to 56 pips and a loss of 11 pips profit. Without masculating Fibonacci and its many fallacies, eliminate it from trading decisions, especially from day trades.


its never known in advance if prices will trade a full range, 1/2 range, 1/3 or 1/4 ranges. The market decides but it explains why and how to profit from day trades as all information is known.


Today is Fed day and everybody expects a big move. The FED reports at 2:00 pm while currency prices traded for 1 1/2 hours from 12:30. Pro traders and central banks locked into central bank prices with extremely fast computers normally take out most vital trade prices within minutes of 12:30 or any reported central bank price and leave unsuspected traders with scraps to trade.

Explains again why central bank meetings only see 50 pip moves but also explains how to trade against and beat price competition from central bank computers. Here trade preparation is 1/2 the battle to winning.

Brian Twomey

EM Trade Results

As written to weekly trades, USD in the EM space was massively overbought. Entries were perfect and targets easily achieved destinations however targets were set at easy points.


USD/BRL


Long 4.9898 and 4.9686 to target 5.0535.
Actual 4.9871 to 5.0535
+664 pips


USD/PLN


Short Anywhere or 3.8064 and 3.8078 to target 3.7888.
Actual 3.8119 to 3.7814
+264 Pips


USD/MYR


Short 4.1664 and 4.1692 to target 4.1426.
Actual 4.1649 to 4.1462
+187 pips


USD/DKK


Short anywhere or 6.2715 and 6.2738 to target 6.2389 easily.
Actual 6.2752 to 6.2511
+241 pips


USD/HRK


Short anywhere or 6.3187 and 6.3205 to target 6.2970 easily
Actual 6.3246 to 6.3196
+50 pips and ongoing trade


Total pips 1406, 5 trades and 2 days


Open trades: USD/HUF and USD/RON

Brian Twomey

AUD/USD, NZD/USD, GBP/NZD, RBA

The RBA’s target for OCR remains at 0.10 until 2023, 2024, never or infinity. Unless Inflation from 1.1 achieves sustainably 2 or 3%. The target fo the 3 year yield at current 0.44 from OCR at 0.10 is only 34 points away. This means many miles away and may never achieve target.


As stated many times, the RBA and central banks said nothing and wasted time spent to read the new jibberish. AUD/USD moved higher by 50 pips. That’s all that counts. The RBA’s words of fantasy are worth 50 pips.

The RBA’s talk of speculative daydreaming and Economics long ago de coupled from the actual market price and movements. Until interest rates come back to real focus again as in pre 2016 markets then de coupling Economics to market price moves will continue long into the future.


Ask this question. Did the RBA or backward RBA previews assist to make an informed trading decision. Of course not nor will future previews earn 1 pip and future RBA meetings will be worth 50 pips.


AUD/EUR traded 0.6356 to 0.6389 or 33 pips for its maximum while EUR/AUD traded 83 pips or 17 pips above AUD/EUR’s 33 pips. Take AUD/EUR Max of 33 pips and times 2 then EUR/AUD 66 pip price is known in advance of RBA for an easy trade. The 17 extra pips were bonus points on the downside yet 17 pips will profit on the upside. Now all have 34 easy pips and known in advance of the actual trade.


AUD/USD now approaches vital 0.7612 while NZD/USD is on the verge at 0.7088 and GBP/USD at 1.3884. The best AUD/USD trades today on a break higher is 0.7625 and 0.7630 and NZD/USD 0.7127 and 0.7132.


The big winners this week so far was GBP/NZD, up 100 and down 100 pips. GBP/CAD achieved 100 pips higher and GBP/AUD achieved 56 pips higher and 134 pips lower. Waych for GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD higher for 100 pips.

Brian Twomey

USD/CHF and DXY Comparison Vs Day and Weekly Trades

DXY contains many advantages in relation to the USD/CHF relationship. No longer are monthly averages required to view DXY on a long term basis. This not only cuts much work to monthly average views but DXY from the 92.24 close may now insert USD/CHF exchange rates for a longer term DXY view using less numbers to enter.


DXY advantage to markets is as a forecast to trade and predict perfectly not only other exchange rates but stock markets, VIX, commodities and all financial instruments. USD/CHF adds the extra bonus as a validation to forecasts. DXY adds not only an extra trade for interested but a solid forecast so to possibly double lots added to trades.


Interesting move for the SNB to Peg USD/CHF to DXY but not surprising as the world of trading from every trade and export are all USD dependent. This means every nation on the planet sets exchange and interest rates as close to USD as nation markets allow. Its actually impossible not to happen to offer the degree of USD dependency as USD is the trigger and driver to world financial markets. USD determines and forecasts every financial price.


In today’s markets, far less interest rate maturities trade in comparison to pre 2016 and 1998 upon EUR introduction. By comparison of nation interest rates to FED and USD is seen not much difference to interest rates. From a globalist perspective, the world of markets and trading grew much closer.


The change is not USD, DXY or FED interest rates but a closer alignment from world nations to USD. To some degree, this is a disadvantage to other nations and issues to sovereignty as an interest rate change by any nation forces a chain reaction to all nation interest rate adjustments. And irrelevant to whether a particular nation is ready or can handle the adjustment.


USD/CHF begins the week overbought and this means DXY is also overbought using USD/CHF exchange rates.


USD/CHF from a day trade, 5 vital numbers apply to USD/CHF as follows: 0.9177, 0.9191, 0.9202, 0.9247 and 0.9271. USD/CHF today won’t trade 0.9271 nor 0.9247. Focus on shorts to target lower to 0.9177.


DXY day trade, 5 vital numbers apply as follows: 91.77, 91.91, 91.99, 92.47, 92.71.


The only difference to day trades is 91.99 DXY to 0.9202 to USD/CHF. But markets are operating on uneven numbers primarily for day trades. So no real difference.


Weekly, both DXY and USD/CHF target 0.9177 and 0.91.77. The best USD/CHF and DXY will trade from weeklies is 0.9164 and 0.9148 and DXY 91.64 and 91.48.

Brian Twomey

EM Overbought USD and Weekly Trades

The overall driver to USD currency pairs this week are located in EM currencies as the main EM currencies are severely overbought. Due to overbought USD in the EM space, EM overbought will automatically drive G28 USD currencies lower.


No difference exists to EM and G28 currencies except the currency nation name and exchange rate number. Both G28 and EM markets are the exact same. IF USD trades higher or lower then all EM and G28 currencies trade higher or lower. Same principle for EUR, AUD, NZD, GBP, CHF and JPY.


EM serves its purpose by an extra evaluation for example to USD or EUR currencies. USD/CAD this week is fairly neutral while USD/CHF and USD/JPY are overbought but nothing special to the degree. USD currencies for EM serves the purpose to the degree of overbought or oversold particularly as G28 currencies are dead to movements.


Taken a step further to overbought, USD/BGN is overbought, USD/CZK, USD/IDR, USD/ILS, USD/INR, USD/KRW, USD/NOK, USD/PHP, USD/SEK, USD/SGD, USD/THB.


The factor to overbought or oversold for EM currencies are wide range movements compared to dead ranges for G28 currencies. For EM currencies to reach astronomical overbought or oversold means an extraordinarily distance was traveled.


USD/TRY, USD/ZAR and USD/CNY was excluded from this week’s trade consideration due to fairly neutral positions to begin the week. Also note oversold USD/RUB exclusion.


The commonality to all currencies is movements are dependent on Repo Rates as the nation’s main interest rates. Repo Rates are vastly different to currency price movements than interest rates that predominate the vast amount of nations in our trading world.


Repo Rates are neutral for above nations which is the translation of a neutral currency price.


USD/DKK overbought from the close at 6.2673,
Short anywhere or 6.2715 and 6.2738 to target 6.2389 easily.


USD/HRK overbought from the close at 6.3120
Short anywhere or 6.3187 and 6.3205 to target 6.2970 easily.


USD/HUF from the close at 296.52
Short 296.97 and 297.28 to target 296.06. No thrill here, fairly neutral.


USD/MYR overbought from the close at 4.1635
Short 4.1664 and 4.1692 to target 4.1426.


USD/PLN overbought from the close at 3.8013,
Short Anywhere or 3.8064 and 3.8078 to target 3.7888.


USD/RON overbought from the close at 4.1539
Short anywhere or 4.1566 and 4.1586 to target 4.1244.


USD/BRL from the close at 5.0574
Long 4.9898 and 4.9686 to target 5.0535.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD Vs USD/CHF, DXY and Weekly FX Commentary

Deeply oversold EUR/USD begins the week against the following averages: 1.1647, 1.1708, 1.1861, 1.1932, 1.1993 then 1.2035. The 5 year average is located at 1.1447 and 10 year at 1.2023.
USD/CHF vital averages from the close at 0.9204 are located at 0.9130, 0.9380, 0.9511, 0.9551 then 0.9733.


DXY monthly averages from the close at 92.24 as follows: 90.24, 91.57, 92.89, 93.70, 94.93 then a brick wall at 95.00’s and the 5 year average at 95.00’s.


While DXY 5 year average is located at 95.00’s, USD/CHF 5 year average is found at 0.9513.
DXY averages from April maybe slightly off by a few pips but DXY is exactly USD/CHF and USD/CHF is exactly DXY. If DXY averages were ran for current July, averages, support and resistance points would reveal the same exact points.


DXY and USD/CHF day trades are exact to daily ranges. DXY as an exchange rate normally trades a few pips higher than DXY however those few pips higher for DXY informs to next resistance points for USD/CHF. If DXY approaches 93.00’s for example then USD/CHF informs massive resistance at 0.9300 and USD/CHF would automatically trade lower.


DXY closed at 92.24 and USD/CHF at 0.9204 or 20 pip difference.


USD/CHF at 0.9300’s faces massive hurdles to target 0.9500’s at 0.9306, 0.9351, 0.9360, 0.9367.
While USD/CHF faces first resistance at 0.9306 and 100 ish pips, EUR/USD is against next break below at 1.1708 or 155 pips lower from the 1.1863 close.


JPY cross pairs begins the week oversold from neutral the past 3 weeks. CHF/JPY must break 119.82 to trade lower while USD/JPY sits at neutral. Better trades than USD/JPY are USD/CHF and USD/CAD.


GBP/NZD not only achieved target at 1.9687 from 1.9800’s but GBP/NZD would again lead EUR/NZD while GBP/AUD leads EUR/AUD.


GBP/CHF closes last 4 weeks: 1.2715, 1.2719, 1.2648, and 1.2750.
If GBP/CHF breaks 1.2682 then GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and all GBP cross pairs trade much lower.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY Day Trades

The same story remains today as yesterday: prices entered the most dangerous period of traded markets by trading lower into deep oversold and traveling higher into deep overbought. USD/CAD is the outlier and not only doing fine but USD/CAD can travel much higher easily while USD/CHF and worthless USD/JPY cannot.


USD/JPY at current levels is not supported by averages dating to 1999 to offer the degree of overbought and potential downside and overbought also offers the potential downside to JPY cross pairs. Overall JPY cross pairs for months traded 200 pip ranges and doing nothing.


USD/CHF at current 0.9274 and severely overbought Vs DXY 92.67 must inform DXY is as overbought at USD/CHF. Currency markets are in dire need of a correction before consideration to further downside.


USD/JPY traded to 111.59 highs by the day trade 10 AM hour yesterday and located between 111.43 and 111.71 from 111.10 lows or 49 measly pips. Since 111.59, USD/JPY traded 5 pips higher in 14 traded hours. Much better pairs exist than to trade USD/JPY.


EUR/USD yesterday before the 10 AM hour traded to 1.1883 highs from 1.1837 lows or 46 pips and located from 1.1868 to 1.1890. Since yesterday’s 1.1837 lows, EUR/USD traded to 1.1821 or 16 pips in 16 traded hours.


EUR/JPY traded to `132.46 highs and exceeded 132.25 day trade tops. What a free money bonus. EUR/JPY then traded to 132.19 lows or 27 pips. For the week, EUR/JPY traded 131.28 to 132.46 or 118 pips or 23 pips per day.


The question to day trades is not what traded previously but what didn’t trade as prices are trading barely 50 pips in 24 hours of trade. EUR/USD and USD/CHF travel barely 300 pips in weeks only to find severe oversold asnd overbought. Prices trade to intervals rather than trade to the average. What a tragedy exists these days in markets.


So 50 pips and no reaction on Fed speakers, News events nor anything else that hit markets over the past 24 hours. News events, Fed speakers and whatever else to market events was taken out of the equation to day trades by central banks by killing interest rate markets to non movements.


Day trade profits were once easily 50 ish pips per currency and 9 currency pairs traded for a total of 450 possible pips. Today against 25 pips on 9 currency pairs only 225 pips are available to trade. Central banks cut market trading by 1/2.


Previous, 50 pips were earned quickly, in minutes and today, maybe 24 hours.


Doesn’t matter today what NFP reveals as day trade prices will trade.


Same story as yesterday, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD and now GBP/USD trade deep oversold and shorts are impossible. Same story to USD/JPY and USD/CHF as longs are impossible. Longs are impossible to JPY cross pairs.


A serious correction is required before prices can travel safely again and weekly trades become normal.


EUR/USD 5 vital numbers today: 1.1777, 1.1789, 1.1801, 1.1867 and 1.1898. Overall, EUR/USD must travel far higher than 1.1898 to become normal again.


USD/JPY 5 vital numbers today: 111.03, 111.14, 111.15, 111.87, 112.14. Overall, USD/JPY must trade much lower than 111.03 to become normal again.


EUR/JPY 5 vital numbers: 131.43, 131.56, 131.79, 132.44, 132.77.


Here’s a guide to what is traded in currency markets as the smallest price of all traded financial instruments. Its the only game in town to trade and earn good and consistent profits due to the vast majority of currency prices trade 1/100 of a point. Maybe to select to explain the forecast ability to currency prices to other financial instruments.


Currency prices are located in the first to second category and rarely in the 4th selection

Percentage Basis Points


0.01% 1
0.1% 10
0.5% 50


1% 100
10% 1000
100% 10000

Brian Twomey