FX Next Week

EUR/USD topside yesterday was set against targets at 1.0256 and 1.0259. Both extraordinary moves for the day and both targets achieved for big profits yet EUR/USD breaks vital 1.0285 and trades another 82 pips to 1.0367. Note the location of 1.0285 as dead center of the hourly candle.


The break of 1.0285 then placed EUR/USD from 1.0285 to 1.0350. What allowed EUR/USD to travel higher was the ECB at 10:00 then EUR/USD was good until 1.0304. The BOE at 11 am stopped EUR/USD to begin the long slide lower to 1.0320. The Fed at 12:30 then settled EUR/USD at 1.0296 from 1.0367 highs or71 pips.


EUR/USD yesterday traded for the day overall 167 pips and about 67 more than normal. On the surface appears as just another EUR/USD trade day but 1.0285 set EUR/USD off 82 of the 167 pips or 1/2 of its total 167 pip range.


The 2 most vital points to traded markets are overall ranges and range points such as 1.0285. How much was 1.0285 respected was seen in the weekly trade target at 1.0283. Friends and subscribers profits were 130 ish pips but the pips were easy and guaranteed. And the trade duration was 4 days.


Range Vs Price shares the most unique relationships and most vital to understand market trading.


What were the trade options. Not only was EUR/USD overbought at 1.0285 for the day but 1.0285 location was dangerous. The only option was short and short anywhere.
EUR/USD moves yesterday were unusual, extraordinary and in mathematical weirdo ville. Correct was EUR/USD to reverse at 1.0250’s.

Who or possibly which central bank took EUR/USD higher from 1.0285 is unknown. We’re not privy to such information anymore as was the norm in the old days from the top 4 banks. Previously, the top 4 banks release Flow Reports to determine who to major banks and central banks were big buyers and sellers.


EUR/USD Big break for higher is now 1.0420 and the range becomes 1.0357 to 1.0294. Below 1.0294 targets 1.0231 easily. EUR/USD Friday should close in the vicinity of 1.0168. The lower for EUR/USD is the better for the long trade next week.


GBP/JPY shorts yesterday at 163.82 traded to 163.64 then began the long drop to 161.00’s. GBP/JPY vital at 162.01 allowed GBP/JPY to trade to 161.00’s. Big break for higher is now 162.05.


EUR/JPY is on the verge to trade lower at 136.95. EUR/JPY is a horrible currency at the moment heading into week 3. EUR/JPY trades neutral to neutral without significant progress. EUR/JPY is more suited as a day trade. EUR/JPY broke vital 136.93 and traded 30 pips lower to 136.60. This should serve as a warning to EUR/JPY.


DXY achieved 106.45 and USD/CAD 1.2990’s. As written yesterday, USD/CAD 1.2958 Vs DXY 106.45. The DXY V USD/CAD differential spread from 20 ish pips to 40’s.


Higher for USD/CAD must break 1.2835. DXY now enters its next range from 103.00’s to 105.00’s. Vital above is located at 105.54, 105.76 and 105.80 Vs 104.30 below.
The breaks below for DXY was significant as much as 1.0285 was for EUR/USD.


AUD/USD broke above 0.7001 and lower for AUD/USD must crack 0.7013. Current range 0.7055 to 0.7096 then begins overbought and shorts.


Most important to overall currency markets is NZD/USD break above 0.6362 and today 0.6368. NZD/USD at 0.6417 is fairly neutral which means NZD has every ability to travel to 0.6500’s or break below 0.6368. We’re short next week in the vicinity of 0.6490’s or long upon a break of 0.6368.


GBP/AUD yesterday was written longs at 1.7395. Correct was short at 1.7395. Deeply oversold GBP/AUD should be a big winner for longs next week. Same story for EUR/AUD.


USD/JPY for next week 131.61.


GBP/USD. Looking for a close around 1.2104 for longs next week. A close much higher then GBP/USD is on the last place of the trade rank list.


EUR/NZD as written yesterday long for a quick 50 pips at 1.6178. EUR/NZD traded 1.6150 to 1.6274. EUR/NZD current trades deeply oversold and informs NZD/USD could easily break 0.6368.


Gold traded 20 points yesterday and expected to trade 10 points today. SPX traded 31 points yesterday and within the 25 point framework. Max today is right at 47 pips.

Brian Twomey

Day Trades: EUR, GBP, AUD, EUR/NZD

EUR/USD this week to its weekly range trades from 1.0283 to 1.0147 or 136 pips. Today’s range: 1.0285 to 1.0155 or 130 pips. Yet another dead EUR/USD week is upon us. The benefit is day trades all week are located within the parameters of 1.0285 to 1.0155.


Today’s topside EUR/USD for example is located at 1.0258 and 1.0262. Far short to 1.0285. Bottom EUR/USD 1.0154 and 1.0172.
Today’s Inflation trade appears from yesterday afternoon to be a non event as today’s prices lack range ability which means Inflation is released as expected and prices trade in tiny ranges.


The trade strategy is short highs and long bottoms. Same strategy as if today wasn’t Inflation day.


DXY traded highs this week at 106.81 and between 106.52 to 107.01. DXY traded 83 pips this week from 106.81 to 105.97. Sunday’s range 105.47 to 106.52 and 107.01.


DXY Vs SPX


DXY traded 71 pips Monday Vs SPX 45 points. Tuesday DXY traded 43 pips to SPX 57 points.


DXY is expected to trade today at 106.45 highs and 105.90 lows Vs SPX 4141 Vs 4107.
Neither DXY nor SPX contains any ability to move today except within the same dull ranges. DXY is the problem and as long as DXY fails to move then SPX and Commodities follows non movements. The currency price is the driver to Stock and Commodity markets. When DXY decides to move then Stocks and commodities trade from dead ranges.


View DXY and SPX trades together as 25 point increments especially SPX.
AUD/USD big break is located at 0.7003 and the same story as last week. AUD/USD is going nowhere fast.


From 12 currency for 24 hour trades, here’s the lineup: GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, GBP/USD.


GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY are fairly standard everyday for 24 hour trades as best trades. EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD gain advantage by not only wide ranges but a dead AUD. EUR/CAD is best of the wide range group which informs again, not much is happening today.


EUR/NZD at current 1.6207 is at bottom range 1.6178 and good for a quick 50 pips higher. EUR/AUD at 1.4652 trades dead center to middle range. Longs are located in the vicinity of 1.4562 while GBP/AUD also trades middle range and untouchable. Longs are located around 1.7395.


GBP/JPY at 163.30 is untouchable. Shorts are located from 163.82 or longs from around 162.61. GBP/JPY big break for lower is found today at 162.01.


GBP/USD range from Sunday 1.2174 to 1.2013 held. Watch shorts at 1.2130 and longs around 1.2013.


NZD/USD tops at 0.6313 and 0.6328.


USD/CAD traded 113 pips this week Vs DXY at 86. USD/CAD highs today: 1.2958 Vs DXY 106.45. USD/CAD Lows today 1.2828 Vs DXY lows 105.90. The 2 trades should coincide perfectly. USD/CAD exceeds DXY ranges by about 20 ish pips.


EUR/JPY big break for lower at 136.93 is a good guide for next week. Overall, short JPY cross pairs remains the strategy.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD

DXY traded 186 pips last week. The main problem pair within overall currency markets is USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Then the question: how are currency pairs trading against each other within the respective universe.


USD/USD traded 500 pips last week but broken down from the vital 131 point, USD/JPY traded 155 pips below and 394 pips above. USD/JPY 155 pips below was perfectly normal. USD/JPY however at 394 = DXY 2 times and EUR/USD 2.5 times. USD/JPY is trading erratic and far to high ranges in relation to DXY and EUR/USD as its main counterparts. The story grows worse to JPY cross pairs.


USD/JPY Vs JPY cross Pairs


USD/JPY at 500 pips in relation to cross pair ranges trades as: EUR/JPY 429 pips, GBP/JPY 452, AUD/JPY 327, CAD/JPY 328 and NZD/JPY 259.


EUR/JPY is clearly the problem pair and earns last ranking for the 2nd week. USD/JPY correlates to EUR/JPY at 82% and minus 62% to EUR/USD. EUR/JPY against a high USD/JPY correlation transforms itself as a USD currency to match USD in USD/JPY

. At 429 pips equates to 2.5 times EUR/USD and 2.3 times DXY but below USD/JPY
The main factor and problem to USD/JPY is trade ranges higher than JPY cross pairs. Correct is JPY cross pairs trade higher ranges than USD/JPY.

Instead, USD/JPY trades even matches to EUR/JPY as USD/JPY Vs DXY at 2.3 times and 2.5 times EUR/USD. USD/JPY is clearly the leader to JPY cross pairs and consistent to overall currency market anchor pairs.


AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY as usual were perfect in relation to ranges and big trade weeks while GBP/JPY was erratic yet consistent to EUR/JPY.


Despite today’s analysis, best trades for the future week to week will remain USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs. Most consistent JPY cross pairs are CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. Most volatile are EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. To understand EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY is to profit much in the weeks ahead.


Watch this week EUR/JPY 136.81 and GBP/JPY 162.04.


EUR/USD’s big break is now 1.0418 and dropping. The weekly range is confined from 1.0283 to 1.0147 or 136 pips Vs last week from 1.0283 to 1.0136. Same EUR/USD on a different week.


EUR/USD Cross Pairs


Last week: EUR/CHF 89 pips, EUR/USD 169, EUR/JPY 429, EUR/CAD 190, EUR/AUD 276 and EUR/NZD 216. EUR/NZD is clearly light to trade ranges and should trade the most pips overall and far above EUR/AUD. Explains up and down weeks to trade rankings.
GBP/USD range this week 1.2174 to 1.2013.


GBP Cross Pairs


GBP/CHF 151, GBP/USD 289, GBP/JPY 452, GBP/CAD 268, GBP/AUD 335, GBP/NZD 387. GBP/NZD not bad but light compared to GBP/AUD. GBP/CAD correct should trade much higher than GBP/USD.


AUD/USD big break for higher this week: 0.7001.


AUD Cross Pairs


AUD/CHF 131, AUD/USD 177, AUD/JPY 327, AUD/CAD 155, AUD/NZD 150. AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD clear drivers to AUD/CHF and AUD/USD. Watch AUD/CAD at vital 0.8986 while AUD/NZD achieves overbought and short from middle 1.1100’s.
Oversold NZD/USD must cross 0.6357 for higher.


NZD Cross Pairs


NZD/CHF 70 pips, NZD/USD 140, NZD/JPY 259, NZD/CAD 141. NZD/CAD is clearly a problem to NZD/USD and must trade higher to assist NZD/USD rises. NZD/CAD traded the exact same amount of pips as NZD/USD. NZD/CAD ranges this week: 0.8090 – 0.8019.


DXY vitals above 106.03 and 105.48. Below 105.48 targets 105.10 and the same trade as last week. Above vitals 106.52, 107.01, 107.18 and 107.39. Same DXY, different week.
GBP was the lead trade category last week and should remain the best trades this week.


Labor Force Participation Rate
At current 62% is within middle range to the 83 year history of NFP release from 60 to 65.

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD and FX Next Week

As written yesterday, GBP/USD highs were located at 1.2197, 1.2214 and 1.2233. GBP/USD traded perfectly to 1.2214. Lows at 1.2072 and 1.2063 traded exactly to 1.2064. Then longs dead stopped perfectly at reported range top at 1.2174.


Vital to 1.2214 and 1.2063 are perfect levels. GBP/USD knew exactly where it would trade. If GBP/USD traded in between price at an interval then the message is GBP/USD contains a hesitant price and is not certain to direction.


The larger range yesterday was 1.2174 to 1.2009. GBP/USD traded 40 pips above 1.2174. Next week’s range: 1.2181 Vs 1.2020.


GBP/JPY short strategy traded 200 pips lower. Longs next week must trade above 162.07.


DXY traded 178 pips this week while USD/CAD traded 124 pips. USD/CAD’s months long problem is short ranges to DXY. USD/CHF traded 181 pips Vs DXY 178.


SPX traded 88 pips this week, 226 last week and 188 points 2 weeks ago. SPX trades consistent to DXY 200 ish pip ranges. A free trade to longs and shorts for free money occurs when SPX trades above or below DXY ranges.


EUR/USD’s overall range this week began at 1.0283 to 1.0136. Next week: 1.0290 Vs 1.0155. EUR/USD big break for higher 1.0425. What is EUR/USD doing. Exactly nothing. The numbers may change slightly but the location remains the same week to week. Plus, EUR/USD trades consistent to ranges.


The number 00 to end an exchange rate trades but not very often. Today is unusual. GBP/USD top target today is 1.2200, AUD/USD 0.7000. USD/JPY 134.00.


USD/CAD price path today: 1.2876, 1.2884,1.2892, 1.2900, 1.2916, 1.2924, 1.2933.


GBP/JPY is an outlier currency pair and here’s today’s set up.


161.96, 162.06, 162.26, 162.36, 162.46, 162.56, 162.67
Bottom 161.45 achieves by 161.65 and 161.85


Upper target 162.67
Continuation Fail 162.26


Note ending numbers, 5, 6 and 7. GBP/JPY works on a 2 pip differential as a permanent fixture to its prices and won’t ever change.


USD/JPY traded 415 pips this week while JPY/USD traded 235 pips. JPY/USD 235 Vs DXY 178 is key to USD/JPY.


USD/JPY big break for lower next week is located at 131.55 and the larger range trades from 136.12 to 133.83 then 132.69. Ranges inform next week 131.55 holds and we range trade.


AUD/USD will trade exactly as this week: Caught between AUD/EUR and EUR/AUD. As written Sunday, AUD/USD targets higher at 0.7080’s or longs from 0.6887 to 0.6913. AUD/USD 0.7080;s traded 0.7047 then perfect to 0.6887.


NZD/USD big break for higher is found at 0.6360. NZD/USD must break minimum 0.6325 for any chance at 0.6260 but then NZD/USD trades in no man’s land and untouchable.


AUD/JPY 92.01 and NZD/JPY 83.53 for lower. Deeply oversold CAD/JPY must break 102.43.


EUR/CAD will trade next week from 1.3236 to 1.3088 while GBP/CAD trades from 1.5671 to 1.5499.

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD

DXY achieved 106.82 highs yesterday and 106.82 was located from 106.94 to 106.52 as written Sunday. As DXY achieved weekly highs, EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD dropped. USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs jumped higher from DXY 105.05 lows. DXY for the week traded its usual 177 pips and inside the 200 pip ranges.


The BOE raised 25 points June 16 and GBP traded higher on both June 15 and June 15. The RBA raised and AUD/USD dropped. The RBNZ raised July 13 and NZD/USD traded higher but dropped April 13th on the last raise. EUR/USD traded higher when the ECB raised. USD/CHF dropped om the SNB raise.


When markets shifted in 1972 from Gold and 1% Bretton Woods ranges to interest rates, nobody had a clue what to do nor how how to trade. Bid and Ask spreads to interest rates went ballistic and out of control. Interest rate dealers profited far more than their fair share and knocked market prices off kilter.


When markets finally rightsized, the moving average and interest rates to current traded markets was born and became a permanent fixture since 1972. The moving average is vital today for trades but the moving average must be correct. A chart average is not correct. Add the CMT Association to the long list of criminals and non credible traders today. What a colossal waste of time.


GBP/USD and GBP cross pairs are traded today as long when oversold and short when the price becomes overbought. The moving average informs what to do. GBP/JPY’s big break for lower is located at 162.17. GBP/JPY trades current 163.40’s. Short is the trade.


GBP/USD tops are located at 1.2197, 1.2214 and 1.2233. Lows and long are found at 1.2072 and 1.2063. GBP/USD for the past 24 hour trades, achieved 1.2128 to 1.2175 or 47 pips.


What is traded today is a tiny portion inside the larger range from 1.2174 to 1.2009. No mystery to highs at 1.2175.


Whatever the BOE decides, GBP/USD is expected to normal 50 ish pips. But this is GBP as GBP/USD maybe a middle currency pair but its assigned larger ranges than AUD/USD and EUR/USD. This explains GBP/USD’s ability to trade absolute dead or go ballistic. Its the typical skitzo nature imbedded in GBP.


For interested, see Ron Paul and Lew Lehrman a Case for Gold for a fascinating GBP history.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY, JPY Cross Pairs

The RBA raised OCR by 50 points and AUD/USD dropped 56 pips or almost 1 pip per 50 points. If short from 0.6993 to current 0.6926 lows then all have + 67 pips added to accounts. If short from 0.7047 then + 121 pips added to accounts.


If AUD/USD was oversold then AUD/USD would’ve traded 56 pips higher. The market doesn’t care about Central banks nor raises or drops. The market cares deeply to an average and this drives market prices. A target price is written in Mathematical stone and only Jesus Christ has ability to change this formula.
DXY broke 105.49 and target at 105.15 traded to 105.05.

DXY this week could easily trade to next ranges from 105.00’s to 103.00’s.


Last week EUR/USD range: 1.0302 to 1.0148 or 154 pips. This week 1.0283 to 1.0136 or 147 pips. 2 Weeks ago 1.0309 to 1.0141 or 168 pips.


Overall Ranges, 168, 154, 147. EUR/USD Weekly actually traded 161 pips last week then 206 and 233 pips. EUR/USD beat its weekly ranges by 50 ish pips in 2 of the last 3 weeks. EUR/USD this week traded 9 pips above 1.0283 to 1.0292 then dropped 68 pip to current 1.0215.


What affect did interest rate changes and central bank words and deeds apply to EUR/USD? Nero effect as the market price doesn’t care.


If interest rates effect no changes to market prices, employment as the most lagging indicator available, extracts zero conversations to market prices and much less to overall monetary policy. Inflation achieved 7.5% in January and 6 months later, we’re beginning to hear about major layoffs to big companies. Employment lacks a gauge to Monetary policy.


Th market story however is found in USD/JPY break below 132.38 then trade to lows at 130.38 and almost at our 129.00’s target. Higher for USD/JPY must break 131.98. JPY cross pairs followed USD/JPY as all broke significant averages.


Higher for cross pairs must break GBP/JPY 162.32, EUR/JPY 137.31, AUD/JPY 92.18, NZD/JPY 83.68, CAD/JPY 102.68. GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY trade deep oversold.


CHF/JPY remains the last hold out to break lower at 137.37.


USD/JPY traded 200 pips this week. The 10 Year yield traded 0.17 points and 2 year traded 0.10. The USD/JPY story was never about yields.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD Weekly Ranges

Last week EUR/USD 1.0302 to 1.0148 or 154 pips. This week 1.0283 to 1.0136 or 147 pips. What changed week to week, nothing. 2 Weeks ago 1.0309 to 1.0141or 168 pips.

Ranges, 168, 154, 147.

Action forex or whatever this thing is on my site was placed on site 12 and 14 years ago. I checked. Please exclude any commentary and proposed trades as they are wrong and not trusted. I don’t know how to eliminate from my site.

Please also exclude McGinley Dynamic from Investopedia as this is another whacked organization not to be trusted. If interested in the McGinley Dynamic, read exactly what I wrote as valid. I once had a massive problem with John McGinley when I wrote about his Dynamic on Investopedia.

The man is powerful and well connected. I haven’t investigated years later after my writings but I believe I stand by my words from all those years ago. John is a PHD from Harvard and put his life into that indicator. We later became friends with open discussions.

Interested in subscriptions, brian@btwomey.com. We’re trading 11 currencies per day, 20 currencies weekly, WTI daily and weekly, Brent daily and weekly and SPX, daily and weekly. XAU/USD is currently on the agenda, daily and weekly.

I’m out here to assist subscribers otherwise no reason exists to write any longer. No subscribers then I stop writing and go total private. I completely disappear.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: EUR, DXY, JPY, AUD, NZD

The question to AUD/USD is what’s the problem. AUD/USD over the past 5 days traded between 61 and 120 daily pips. Wednesday and Friday were best days at 100 and 120 pips. Monday, Tuesday and Thursday AUD/USD 87, 61 and 58 pips.


AUD/USD last week managed to break higher last Wednesday at vital 0.6971 and traded 60 pips to 0.7031. AUD/USD 60 of the 100 pip day on Wednesday was covered. AUD/USD Friday broke below 0.6993 and traded 81 pips to 0.6912.


AUD/USD assistance higher was derived from an oversold EUR/AUD and a 300 pip drop from 1.4800’s to 1.4500’s to trade deeper degrees of oversold.


AUD/USD trades its best days and best movements when AUD is in agreement to AUD/EUR. AUD/EUR all last week traded overbought then to a higher degree of overbought from the EUR/AUD drop.


Instead of a meaningful correction to AUD/USD, higher was the only option. AUD/EUR remains massively overbought against a deeply oversold EUR/AUD.


AUD/USD’s best days traded last week as a result of vital MA breaks while the 3 dead days was AUD/USD caught between the AUD/EUR and EUR/AUD crossfire. The crossfire left AUD/USD paralyzed to movements.


AUD/USD closed at 0.6986 against most vital 0.6993. The AUD/USD break last week on Wednesday at 0.6971 corresponded to USD/CAD break below 1.2875. AUD/USD and USD/CAD were the first and only currencies among the USD V Non USD to break significant averages.


AUD/USD vs the AUD universe trades as oversold AUD/CHF, Neutral to AUD/JPY, Neutral to oversold AUD/CAD and overbought AUD/NZD. Overbought AUD/NZD informs lower AUD/CAD as AUD/NZD is the same exact currency as AUD/CAD only shown in the reciprocal format to exchange rates.


Overbought AUD/NZD and AUD/EUR are the driver pairs this week to AUD/USD. AUD/USD contains 2 options this week. Above 0.6993 targets higher at 0.7080’s or longs from 0.6887 to 0.6913.


Overall, AUD/USD sits last on the 20 trade rank list specifically due to dead ranges from small movements last week. Better trades exist.


The Week


DXY


As written last week, DXY targets 105.69 at the lows. DXY traded to 105.61 and ranged its 200 pips from 107 to 105.00’s. DXY this week will trade the same 200 pip ranges from 107.00’s to 105.00’s.


DXY averages above are building to prevent 107.00’s to trade. Vital points are located at 106.10, 106.52 and 106.94. Break at 105.47 targets 105.15 then long.


As DXY trades lower then more averages will build against DXY higher but most important, against all USD from trading higher. DXY lower is positive to long EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD.


DXY will eventually break 105.00’s to then trade 105.00’s to 103.00’s. Next week appears as most opportune time.


Respectful advice is never dismiss DXY from overall forecasts as DXY is a vital currency and commentary to overall markets. DXY 200 pip ranges informs market will remain stable and trade fairly normal moves for months in the future.


DXY averages building against higher levels coincides to EUR/USD seasonality from June to November/ December. EUR/USD seasonality means EUR/USD trades its highest yearly levels during the June to November/ December period.


EUR/USD V USD/JPY


EUR/USD big break for higher is located at 1.0429 Vs USD/JPY at 132.38. USD/JPY is within 81 pips to its vital break and target at 129.00’s. DXY averages, EUR/USD seasonality and lower USD overall will assist USD/JPY to the 132 break.


JPY Cross Pairs


EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY are only 2 currencies with fairly clear trade signals this week. AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and GBP/JPY sit last to trade rankings. All JPY cross pairs site neutral to oversold against extremely wide ranges. Shorts are best trades.


NZD


NZD/USD and NZD currencies overall are better trades than AUD as NZD sits in good positions and to long any drops. This means long NZD/CHF, NZD/USD and NZD/CAD. Caution to NZD/JPY.


GBP


GBP/USD is in decent shape to match NZD. Favored trades this week are GBP/USD, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CHF. Dead last are GBP/NZD due to lack of range and GBP/JPY. Long drops is the preferred trade strategy.


GBP/CAD is a repeat from last week. Recall last week, oversold GBP/CAD recommended long and GBP/CAD traded 200 pips higher.


USD/BGN or the Bulgarian Lev


Big break for lower remains 1.8777. Shorts from 1.9251 and 1.9284 targets 1.9031 on a break of 1.9157.


Trade Rankings


EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/NZD, AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF, CAD/CHF, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, CAD/JPY, AUD/USD.


Overall best: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/NZD.


AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF and CAD/CHF are always good for quick and easy pips and guaranteed pips but all remain last every week due to slim ranges.

Brian Twomey

FX Next Week: EUR, GBP, AUD, Gold/Silver Ratios

GDP yesterday reported -0.9, we had -1.0 and the Atlanta Fed -1.2. By the data, it was clear the Atlanta Fed was off its forecast. Not that it matters as the currency and market price would’ve traded to the exact same levels despite the variation to GDP forecasts.


The laugh to the forecast is 12 numbers were required and voila, -1.0 was done. Anybody could’ve performed the same quick operation and found -1.0. Anybody today can factor the new GDP averages and find the next GDP release. Nothing will change in 3 months.


The GDP and any economic release is a stand alone entity and factors by itself. The only difference between today and yesterday is a slight change to the averages. And the change is very slight. The 1 year average at 1.04 should drop so the forecast in turn should also drop for the next quarter.


NFP is coming and NFP as a stand alone release factors the exact same as GDP averages. The only difference is NFP contains different numbers than GDP. See my blog at btwomey.com for many. many past NFP forecasts.


Also see my blog as posted Sunday was weekly levels for 20 currency pairs.
Currency markets next week focus is on the big MA break to MA points and terrific movements. Market prices brought us to the brink as markets are known to perform time and time again.


USD/JPY is the main focus as 132.36 is here to change the entire USD/JPY trajectory from longs to shorts.


JPY Cross Pairs


EUR/JPY broke lower yesterday at 137.88 and now trades 135.00’s. GBP/JPY broke below 162.72. NZD/JPY broke below 83.95. AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY are hold outs at 92.45 and 102.96 for CAD/JPY.


EUR/USD has a long way to go before 1.0439 breaks higher. Monitor bottoms to EUR/USD by EUR/CHF current 0.9736 and big break for higher at 1.0034. Also USD/CHF at current 0.9515 and big break at 0.9619.


Overall EUR/USD trades 1.0439 to 1.0034 and USD/CHF 0.9619.


GBP/USD 1.2321 waits fo higher GBP. GBP/CAD is oversold from 1.5826. Recall FX weekly and higher for GBP/CAD. GBP/CAD traded 200 pips higher this week. GBP/NZD remains a problem pair and GBP/AUD trades at the mercy of AUD/USD.


Overbought AUD/USD big break is located at 0.6992. NZD/USD 0.6354 waits to trade higher.


Oversold EUR/CAD at week’s beginning traded 200 pips higher and remins deeply oversold.


USD/CAD 1.2852 for higher. Higher is guaranteed if CAD/JPY breaks below 102.96.
EUR/AUD trades massively oversold and good longs for next week. From 1.4500;s, good target is 1.4700’s.


EUR/AUD is the best trade against GBP/AUD and EUR/NZD better than GBP/NZD.
Severely overbought AUD/EUR explains AUD/USD to break 0.6992.
DXY 106.50’s for higher to target 107.00’s.


GOLD / SIlver Ratio


Currencies for 2000 years are characterized either as Gold or Silver currencies and the connection was established in antiquity. The connection in the modern day can’t ever change.


Silver currencies are the lesser valued 0 point currencies. Asia, central and South America are classified as Silver currencies. Mexico is a Silver Currency.
USD, Europe and Canada are Gold Currencies and classified by their 1.0 exchange rate designation.


If the Gold/Silver ratio is high or at a vital level then the effect is seen from Gold Currencies as Gold currencies will also trade at a vital MA point.


Gold on its best days over the past 3 and 4 weeks traded 30 ish points while EUR/USD traded 100 ish pips and a difference of 70 ish points.


Silver traded 1 point yesterday Vs 120 pips for JPY/USD 0.7545 to 0.7424. Weekly Silver traded 2 points from 20.22 to 18.21 vs JPY/USD 276 pips from 0.7545 to 0.7269.
For every 1 point traded in Silver, JPY/USD trades 100 ish pips. Best to convert exchange rates to work with smaller numbers.


Gold and EUR/USD work the exact same as Silver to Silver currencies such as JPY/USD. Roughly 30 points to Gold trades 100 ish pips for EUR/USD.


Not much will ever change in the Silver Vs Silver currency ratios nor Gold to Gold Currencies as the relationhsips were established 2000 years ago.


If the Gold /Silver ratio relationship is extremely low to Silver then Silver currencies go long as all are oversold. If Gold is high then short Gold Currencies as Gold currencies are overbought.

Brian Twomey

GDP: Levels and Forecast

GDP at -1.6 from the last quarter achieved a level just below the current absolute bottom at -1.7. GDP refers to Real and the RBNZ contains all data for interested. GDP also refers to annualized as the data was separated in years to run from the 1 to 10 year average. The data dates to 1990.


The Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast reports GBP today at -1.2. My factor is -1.0 and -0.47. GDP is located in a range from -1.0 to 0.06. The Atlanta Fed Nowcast is a hodge podge of convolution as much easier and faster methods exist to arrive at a better forecast.
From -1.7 and any number in negative territory or at low positive, GDP is massively oversold from the 1 year to 10 year averages. Oversold informs GDP in subsequent quarters should be positive.


On a larger range to cover 1 to 10 year averages, the overall economy is located from -1.7 to positive 3.00’s. The problem with a positive GDP is many averages exist on the way to 3.0.


The 1 year average exists at 1.04, the 2 year at 1.62 and 5 year at 1.52 then comes a massive hurdle of averages at the 1.80’s starting at 1.80, 1.83, 1.84, 1.85. Above 1.85 only then is considered 2.18. 2.34 and 2.40.


Since 1990, GDP experienced 11 quarters of negative growth. The current quarters of negative GDP matches the crash of 2008 as the 2 worst periods since 1990. In terms of actual numbers, the current quarters are worse than the crash of 2008 by very slim margins, -3.4 Vs -3.2.


The crash of 2008 lasted for 5 consecutive and negative quarters while the current period factors to 4 successive quarters.


GDP contains a massive hurdle to achieve not only a positive number but a respectable level for economic growth. The first obstacle is 1.04 and this number is just the 1 year average. Only 9 more averages to go and much room for economic improvement on the policy front.


Historic GDP since 1990 normally trades from the 1 and 2 year averages to the 5 year. At -1.7, fails to register to normal averages.


Powell stated yesterday to economic problems are on the demand side. Opposite to Powell’s Keynesian revelations to match Bernanke and Yellen, economic problems exist on the supply side. Demand is fairly constant while supplies represent problems to shortages.


The 2nd problem and the most vital to lead GDP lower for longer is Democrats proposal to raise taxes. Trump, Reagan and Republicans of the 1920’s demonstrated lower taxes results in GDP skyrockets to 5 and 6% under Reagan and Trump while higher rates existed in the 1920’s.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD Vs CAD/ZAR V DXY, USD/BRL

DXY broke above Sunday’s reported 107.03 and traded to 107.32. DXY traded 106 pips this week. EUR/USD traded 177 weekly pips. EUR/USD’s weekly range began at 1.0303 to 1.0148. Today, the range becomes 1.0299 to 1.0151.


Break of 1.0151 targets today’s lows at 1.0083 and 1.0070. Long and hurry for any price within the vicinity of 1.0083 and 1.0070. Topside EUR contains 2 big breaks at 1.0134 and 1.0178. Targets become 1.0185, 1.0235 and if EUR goes insane then targets 1.0285.
EUR/USD problem is DXY as DXY’s 2 big break above are located at 106.74 and 106.97. Both levels are the driving forces to today’s markets. Trade scenarios look like this. If DXY breaks above 106.74 and 106.97 then long USD/JPY, JPY cross pairs and short EUR/USD.


Topside DXY 106.74 and 106.97 Vs bottom at 105.55. Without significant breaks to DXY, EUR/USD and markets trade in 100 pip ranges. EUR/USD for the past 3 and 4 weeks has been trading 100 pip days almost everyday of the 3 weeks.


Don’t expect different today as the same 50 pips trade as every central bank meeting.
Big daily trade winners over the past 3 and 4 weeks were GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY then wide range currencies EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD. The vast majority of currencies trade 100 ish pips days. Gold is lucky to trade 30 point days while WTI and Brent trade 2 to 9 point days. We maintain extensive records.


The EUR/USD and DXY relationship is matched only by CAD/ZAR as EUR/USD’s perfect opposite. CAD/ZAR trades currently 13.01 and its big break for lower is located at 12.71. If CAD/ZAR breaks 12.71 then long EUR/USD and Hurry. CAD/ZAR above 12.71 then long EUR/USD at the lows.


CAD/ZAR is a better guide than DXY. CAD/ZAR as a commodity currency is also a Commodity Neutral Risk Indicator. CAD/ZAR’s invention 1000 years ago was the pivot to determine overbought and oversold to food products in traded markets as organized in the 1920’s.


CAD/ZAR as EUR/USD perfect opposite is the same principle as saying CAD/ZAR is a USD currency and the exact same currency as DXY. Follow CAD/ZAR on the other horrible site that begins with investing.


USD/BRL achieved 5.4117 target from 5.5052 and actually traded to 5.3383 lows. Not only is USD/BRL oversold but longs target easily 5.4171. The round trip trade targets overall about 2000 pips.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V CAD/ZAR

EUR/USD higher must break 1.0453. From Sunday’s open, EUR/USD ranges were located at 1.0302 to 1.0148. Against 1 day’s trade, range today becomes 1.0305 to 1.0156. Lower averages are rising.
EUR/USD at 1.2000’s trades below 1.0453. As EUR/USD perfect opposite, CAD/ZAR trades above vital 12.72. CAD/ZAR as EUR/USD perfect opposite is the same interpretation as saying CAD/ZAR is USD or CAD/ZAR is a USD currency.
CADZAR as a commodity currency is also a Commoddity Neutral Risk Indicator.
CAD’s 1 year yield trades 3.25 and ZAR at 6.78. Nothing exist as it appears in financial markets however FX was the first financial instrument derived long before Stock markets, bonds, yields, interest rates.
Interest rates began with Commercial Paper in the 1800’s and built the nations that exist today. Fed Funds came along about 40 years later with the creation of T Bills and Yields to perpetually fund governments.
The reciprocal of CAD = 0.1474 and ZAR = 0.30. The receiprocal of CAD/ZAR = 0.076. How are markets doing.
EUR/USD 0.97.
0.30
Copper 0.29

0.14.
Take reciprocals to see commodities.
WYI = 0.010
Brent 0.0098
Soybeans = 0.0007
Corn 0.0016.
Gold 0.0005
Soybeans 0.0007.
If markets prices were presented as reciprocals, a far different picture exists. In the present form, markets were set up for professionals and this is what led to the majority today as speculators.
Take Brent at 0.0098 = 102.04. At 0.0099 =101.01 and 0.0097 = 103.09. The variation is due to 4 decimal places yet 6 and 7 decimal places should b the factor for the next price and ranges.

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly Vital Levels

Weekly Vitals. Watch where prices actually trade and end on Friday. The 7 and 24 Hour trades will trade between 2 vital levels. And 99% of commentary to markets, please exclude especially when the prior day’s news is focused.

Many are trying to become famous and profit from you tube and trade service revenue rather than apply correct analysis to significant economic news. This is the FX street and 99% crowd. Watch my perfect levels in relation to the crowds as the crowds are always wrong. This is all getting very old and tiring to be honest.

EUR/JPY 138.87, 139.52 and 140.81

AUD/USD 0.6938, 0.6904, 0.5837, 0.6770

GBP/USD 1.2210, 1.2108, 1.1904, 1.1770

GBP/JPY 163.31, 163.90, 165.10, 166.29

AUD/JPY 92.87, 93.52, 94.81, 96.10

GBP/CHF 1.1499, 1.1621, 1.1743, 1.1804

GBP/CAD 1.5233, 1.5437, 1.5641, 1.5743

EUR/AUD 1.4754, 1.4835, 1.4916, 1.4957

GBP/AUD 1.7273, 1.7401, 1.7530, 1.7594

EUR/CAD 1.3015, 1.3162, 1.3310, 1.3383

NZD/USD 0.6080, 0.6169, 0.6258, 0.6303

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: EUR/USD V DXY

Favored trades this week: EUR/USD, AUD/JPY, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, NZD/JPY, AUD/USD, AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF, CAD/CHF, CAD/JPY, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/JPY, EUR/NZD.


Best trades: EUR/USD, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY.


GBP Best Trades: GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF.


Missing from the GBP lineup is GBP/JPY while EUR/JPY again earns last place rankings. EUR/JPY do or die is located at 138.22 and GBP/JPY at 162.71. EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY sit oversold however vital breaks exist just below. Better trades exist to shorts in AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY.


EUR/USD traded 198 pips last week and 229 pips in the prior week. EUR/USD traded 60 pips for ECB’s raise. EUR/USD range this week is located from 1.0302 to 1.0148. Breaks higher or lower won’t travel far and slated for longs and shorts.

DXY V EUR/USD


DXY trades below 107.09, above targets 108.89, below targets 105.69. USD/JPY’s drop Friday was the result of the DXY break below at 107.09. DXY traded its usual 200 pips last week. The break below 107.09 was huge and now places DXY inside the next 200 pip range from 105. to 107.


DXY for many months to come will trade 200 pip weekly ranges. Break at 105.00’s then becomes 105 to 103, then 103 to 101 and 101 to 99. Every 100 pips upon a break higher to significant averages becomes severely overbought.


EUR/USD and non USD currencies will trade 200 pip ranges and cross pairs 300 to 400 pips. Not a terrible situation for trades and profits as 200 pip weeks factors to 100 pip trade days.


From 2019 to central bank interest rate raises, EUR/USD and non USD currencies traded 150 pip weekly ranges. Central bank change of interest rates offered 50 extra pips to weekly trade ranges. Once raises are complete, 200 pip weeks will drift back to 150 weekly ranges.


More precise trades are located at 150 pip weeks than at current 200.


DXY from 88 broke above the 5 year average at 95 last October while EUR/USD broke below its 5 year average at 1.1500’s last November. DXY from current 106 trades 1100 pips from 95 and EUR/USD from 1.0200’s trades 1300 pips.


Spreads to individual currency prices reflects to the massive DXY Vs EUR distance as GBP/USD Vs USD/CAD trades 900 pips, EUR/USD to USD/CAD at 2700, EUR/USD Vs GBP/USD at 1700. Cross pairs are the glue to hold currency markets in check so to not trade in the stratosphere at any moment in time.


A break of 95 and 1.1500 is required to change the entire currency market relationship to EUR and DXY. DXY is deeply overbought at 95 while EUR/USD trades severely oversold from 1.1500. DXY and EUR/USD trade in compression mode to meet in the center at 95 and 1.1500.


Weekly Closes


AUDJPY Close 94.15, Last week 94.00
GBPCHF 1.1527, Last week 1.1578


EURNZD 1.6331, Last week 1.6375
GBPCAD 1.5491, Last Week 1.5445


EURCAD 1.3187, Last Week 1.3130
NZDJPY 85.02, Last Week 86.23


AUDCHF 0.6658, Last Week 0.6632
NZDCHF 0.6015, Last Week 0.6632


Currencies not listed such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD trade approximately a difference of 100 pips to weekly close prices. JPY cross pairs trade in scatterbrain mode as differences exist in the 100 to 200 pips vicinity.


EUR/USD and EUR cross pairs are the best category to trade this week. EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD earns its high rank status due to oversold. Same for GBP/AUD and GBP/CAD. AUD/USD sits deeply overbought however 0.6971 lies just above current price.
USD/JPY big break remains at 132.00’s. DXY must drop further for USD/JPY to break 132.00’s.


EM


USD Vs EM currencies sits neutral to oversold for the week. USD/BRL targets 5.4117, watch USD/CZK 23.58 while USD/HUF, USD/ZAR, USD/TRY, USD/RON and USD/PLN remains deeply overbought short to long term. All contain a long way to drop for consideration to non overbought status.

Brian Twomey

USD/BGN

Hi Bulgaria and thank you for the many views. My assumption is interest in BGN and EUR. For other nations, I have it all to offer trades if interested.

A few special notes. A group out there with plenty of money and 10 + plus years in the business has plans to develop a professional website for good, profitable and experienced traders. And to compete with Fxstreet and investing dot com. Both sites turned into horror shows. The new site is badly needed as many good traders out there are lost in the crowds. Yours truly included.

When Fxstreet began its trade service, the losses mounted to skyrocket proportions. Then came the $35 subscription service and massive failure. Then premium began and access to Experts and trades. Once $50 and $35, now $24 and special at 50% off the 24 price.

No shortage of subscribers as Fxstreet locked up millions of traders. Called members today. All they had to do was call me as I provide trades and they send a fat check every month. What a powerhouse Fxstreet could’ve become.

I declined webinars and the weekly forecast poll because 40+ people are on the poll and webinars offers 5 to 15 traders of the millions of traders. The thanks for all my years.

USD/BGN big break for lower is located at 1.8729 to target lower at 1.8454 and quite easily.

Major levels: 1.8862, 1.8994, 1.9259, and 1.9524. At 1.9128 is oversold.

Monday’s trade

Long above 1.9189 to target 1.9366.

Short 1.9366 to target 1.9307.

Short below 1.9189 to target 1.9012.

Long 1.9012 to target 1.9071.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD and ECB

The ECB’s Euribor for the 3 month rate traded positive 0.002 last Thursday. The ECB’s new overnight rate termed STIR trades -0.583 or positive 0.41. Why EUR/USD traded so low for so long is found at 0.41 as EUR/USD price was maintained low by the ECB on purpose.


At 0.41 competes with the Fed at 1.58 or a difference of 1.17. If the ECB raises 25 points then 0.41 goes to 0.65 and a 52 point difference between the ECB and Fed. The question will the ECB move rates today is answered by I don’t know and for trades and profit purposes, it doesn’t matter to a moot point.


The ECB is an activist central bank and works on its own interests, its own accord, its own volition. The ECB acts in regards to its own interests rather than join the crowds of central banks.


The ECB went negative in 2014. In 2016, the ECB rearranged world interest rates. The ECB changed the FIX price in 2016 and this reorganized the character of traded markets. Not only was the FIX price time changed but the statistical structure of the FIX was entirely reorganized.

In the 1920’s, the ECB struck deals with the FED to import Inflation. The ECB’s activism over the past 100 years has nothing on the BOJ’s failed economic programs over 100 years.


If the ECB decides to raise then what we know is a tighter market will trade and much of the latest volatility seen over past months will subside. Yet if the ECB remains at 0.41 then the message is EUR/USD will remain lower for longer. The market and averages will decide EUR fate.


The ECB’s main reorganization surrounds the concept to limit movements at news announcements. In this regard, the ECB was most successful as they placed a stranglehold on interest rates at the time of major GDP and Inflation announcements. Suppress interest rates then forces no movements to the currency price.


Yesterday’s markets were dead as a result to no interest rate changes from Tuesday to Wednesday. No interest rate movements then no market price movements to all financial instruments.


Central bank meetings are incorporated to include a major news announcement and explains the 50 pip moves to interest rate changes.


Most traders use a market price to trade. Most market prices are wrong therefore a market price must transform to an understandable, correct and trade able price.
EUR/USD’s wider range is located from 1.0304 to 1.0146. Current EUR/USD is overbought.


Bottom side EUR: 1.0163 1.0176, 1.0182, 1.0189 1.0186 and 1.0189. EUR/USD is well supported at the 1.0180’s but also note how tight is this market.


Topside EUR/USD: 1.0221, 1.0228, 1.0234, 1.0241, 1.0254, 1.0260, 1.0267.
Both top and bottom EUR trades extremely tight and contains no room to move. This was concocted by the ECB in collusion with the FED.


If EUR/USD decides to trade to non normal levels then the top looks like this: 1.0276, 1.0285, 1.0294, 1.0304,


If the bottom trades non normal then levels look like this: 1.0146, 1.0157, 1.0139, 1.0121, 1.0103.

Brian Twomey

EUR/JPY Day Trade Example

139.41,139.58,139.67,139.76,139.85,139.98,

Vs 140.20,140.29,140.38,140.47,140.65,140.74,140.83

Eliminate vitals: 139.41, 139.67 Vs 140.47, 140.83

139.41 and 140.83 = Equal oversold and overbought. 139.67 and 140.47 = Perfect neutral. 140.12 = Perfect 0.

From 13 numbers inside the price path, only 4 numbers are vital.

Note traditional short at 140.74. Correct short at 140.83. Why? Current market price ranges lack ability currently to trade to full potential. Missing? 0.5. to 1.0. Seems small and not significant but both are as wide as oceans.

So small is the currency price yet every last pip contains vital trade information.

To include 0.5 then ranges widen to normal as 141.02 from 140.83 and 139.22 from 139.41.

139.67 goes to 139.58 and 140.83 goes to 140.74.

If 1.0 was included as traditionally traded then 140.83 goes to 141.46 and 139.41 goes to 138.77. Both expand ranges by 64 pips.

Ranges may expand but most vital neutral points also expands. The currency and all market prices trade neutral to neutral. The day trade goes from neutral to oversold or neutral to overbought. Then trades back to neutral again. The problem to neutral is wide bands exist and many exchange rate points.

To elaborate to neutral. EUR/JPY today allows for 27 pips to normal trade on each side of 140.12. The remainder exist as neutral. Neutral means price may trade up or down under a perfect equal chance. Central banks established equal chance as statistical masters.

EUR/JPY traded today from perfect 139.85 to 141.16. Then 140.83 must be considered a range break and price expansion. Note the 0.5 and 1.0 expansion levels: 141.46 and 141.06 and perfect 1/2 at 140.16.

A range break above 140.83 means EUR/JPY trades back to a wider neutral point area but it also means a range break entails more money profit to shorts. This is the free money side of day trades.

Described today is a tiny portion to the day trade and much information remains missing to put the puzzle price together. To understand is to profit further without loss. Much description remains.

The Set Up

EUR/JPY

 Long Short Line 140.12

 Most Important 139.67 and 139.85 Vs 140.20, 140.29, 140.38, 140.47, 140.65, 140.74, 140.83

Bottom 139.41 achieves by 139.58 and 139.76 

Upper target 140.74 Continuation Fail 40.47

Brian Twomey

FX Weekly: DXY, EUR/USD, USD/CNY

Last week’s currency market focus addressed the massively wide divide between USD and EUR and the many cross pairs caught in between USD and EUR. The divide subsided from last week to this week’s position to neutral. USD within G28 to include USD/CAD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY and USD/ EM are equally overbought as much as EUR/USD and EUR/EM to oversold.

Measured by degrees to overbought and oversold, USD and EUR sit near perfect neutral.


Neutral means average moves trade this week yet normal and balanced and without significant breaks to averages. As in past trade week’s, currency prices trade within ranges yet without breaks to averages to signify a new trend. No difference to this week’s trade.


Exceptions exists to EM however. EUR/ZAR and USD/ZAR both begin the week massively overbought. EUR/ZAR’s big break for lower prices is located at 16.9775 and 16.2291 for USD/ZAR.


The African story to USD/ZAR is the Zambia Kwacha as USD/ZMW at 16.42 crossed below USD/ZAR. While USD/ZAR traveled higher, the Kwacha traded 100 pips lower in 3 weeks from 17.24 to 16.29.

Both ZAR and ZMW are essentially the same exchange rate number but ZAR as the lead currency and most widely traded. Overbought USD/ZAR now competes to oversold USD/ZMW.


USD/HUF from current 397.42 and EUR/HUF at 400.03 are both deeply oversold. Neither will break significant averages at USD/HUF 377.56 and EUR/HUF at 394.41. The best trade available for the week is the crossover.


The last exception to the neutral position is deeply oversold EUR/RON however EUR/RON earns oversold status due to the internal problems within its current exchange rate.


The Week


JPY Cross Pairs


EUR/JPY earns low rank status again heading into week 2. EUR/JPY ranges are located from 138.94 to 140.18. EUR/JPY must break 137.70 to target easily 136.45 while 140.18 sits at neutral.


EUR/JPY opened last week at 138.51. Vital points were located at 138.12 -138.86 then 139.60. EUR/JPY broke below 138.12 to 137.00 then from 138.12 to 139.88. Beside the break at 138.12, EUR/JPY traded neutral all week.


EUR/JPY this week must break 137.70 for shorts on a short only strategy.


USD/CNY


USD/CNY traded 299 pips Friday on a China miss to GDP expectation. USD/CNY contains ability to trade 1026 pips at any given moment and a normal move. USD/CNY traded 299 pips or 29% of the total 1026 pips. USD/CNY failed to trade the remaining 313% of the full range to its overall ability. Overall, USD/CNY failed to move on the GDP release.


USD/CNY last 6 weeks to weekly Ranges: 749, 784, 453, 532, 712, 792 or about 149 pips per day, per 5 day trade week. USD/CNY 6 weeks total range: 1267 or 211 pip weeks


What is a 700 pip week? Full move = 1028 pips so 700 pips is 68% of the full range. The import is USD/CNY trades barely above 50% of its weekly range.


Its customary for G28 and EM currency pairs to not trade full potential to ranges. Central banks since 2010 and 2016 work on the policy to contain the price rather than allow the price to trade freely. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are examples to this week.


If EUR/USD is allowed to trade freely this week then EUR would range from 1.0418 to 0.9752. This won’t happen on EUR/USD’s best week. If GBP/USD is allowed to trade freely then GBP would range 1.2296 to 1.1434.


If USD/CNY was allowed to trade freely then USD/CNY would range from 6.8602 to 6.6546.


Stock market indices are quite different from currencies as indexes may trade full range potential or exceed range potential. SPX for example opens after day trades finished trading for the day so SPX trades based on the ranges of currencies.


USD/CAD Vs EUR/CAD


Remember this statement from a previous post. Watch EUR/CAD in relation to USD/CAD. Both EUR/CAD and USD/CAD traded 60 ish pips on the BOC’s interest rate raise but USD/CAD briefly traded above EUR/CAD. Rare day as EUR/CAD’s exchange rate position is trade above USD/CAD. A crossover trade existed.


USD/CAD dropped 200 pips from 1.3200 highs. USD/CAD was overbought at the time of the BOC announcement and remains overbought today at 1.3000’s.
USD/CAD sits neutral for the week on a short only strategy to target 1.2944.


DXY


DXY traded no differently as written last week. Overbought at 108 and DXY traded its customary 100 pips higher at 109 to a higher degree of overbought. DXY becomes overbought this week at 109.91 and trades a range from 106 to 109.00’s.


Currency markets are led by neutral USD Vs EUR/USD and will trade normal to ranges. Next week will see writings impart deeply oversold and overbought to USD and EUR.


Trade Rankings


EUR/USD, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF, EUR/JPY, CAD/CHF.


EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD oversold earns high rankings however caution is advised. EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD will perform well this week. AUD/USD’s problem remains overbought AUD/EUR. AUD/USD’s best trade and best position occurs when AUD/USD is in sync with AUD/EUR. Currently, both are light years apart.


GBP Rankings


GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF.

Brian Twomey

GBP/USD and Day Trades

The last piece of the puzzle in an 18 year journey to know and understand the currency price is the 24 hour trade. An overall trade week consists of the 7, 24 hour and weekly trades. Weekly trades were always easiest however the 24 hour trade will beat weekly trade profits by 40 miles. The literally laugh to all this is all are related by the same piece of simple math.


Don’t allow the word Math to deter from what is actually traded. A Pen, paper, calculator and 5 minutes per financial instrument is the only requirement to massive profits and successful trading. Knowledge of markets or knowledge of any financial instrument is not required to giant profits and successful trading.


Not only can a child of 12 trade successfully and achieve targets but 99% to all written market talk is useless information. The currency analyst complicates the uncomplicated which means they know not what they say or do. All aren’t even trying to be right.


Yesterday trade, today and tomorrow is the exact same trade only different numbers. The trade in 1972 is the exact same trade as 2022. Traders however must believe in numbers and this is complicated for many accustomed to charts and other trade methods. The question is to easy trades, maximum profits and never required to watch a chart, employ stops or question to profits.


I’m not here to condemn an entire industry yet take my words any way you like but my message is easier ways exist to trade and profit than what has been shown over decades. Trading is not an if this then that computer statement. Trading is an exact science due to targets.


See my blog at btwomey.com for the CPI release for example. Total 8 currency pairs achieved perfect targets and each currency at 100 and 200 pips.


Yesterday was posted pure target to target trades for 11 currency pairs. Nothing more required as tops go to bottoms and bottoms trade to tops.


The 7 and 24 hour trade is the same trade and trades within the same overall range. The 7 and 24 hour trade is a trade within a trade. What is traded is a tiny range within a larger range.


GBP/USD


GBP/USD trades within an overall range from 1.1723 to 1.1936. GBP/USD at 1.1700’s and 1.1800’s trades deeply oversold for the larger picture. Any price next week in the low to high 1.1700’s and 1.1800’s then longs apply for next week’s trade for the weeklies. Targets 1.2000 and 1.2100’s easily.


Today’s trade works like this: 1.1761 1.1776, 1.1778, and 1.1791, 1.1805 Vs 1.1836, 1.1843, 1.1851, 1.1873, 1.1866, 1.1873, 1.1881.


Or 1.1915 to 1.1735.


The trade within a trade holds. Within the overall context are vital levels for entries and for longs and shorts.

Brian Twomey

Target to Target Currency Trading

Trade time begins from 4 ish PM EST Thursday to Friday 4 ish PM. I research to find better, easier and more profitable trades using literally no screen time, No stops, no watching trades and never a question to targets. Profits are guaranteed.

A target price may fall a few pips from the actual price so set profit targets a few pips before the actual number.

It Doesn’t matter if tops or bottoms trade first. Most importantly, 99% of all written words about markets and trades are Lies from very stupid people. They know not what they say or do or write.

From 10 currencies, 100’s of pips are available. Think about 100 pips per currency pair equals 1000 pips, free money.

EUR/USD 1.0078 to 0.9924

AUD/USD 0.6811 and 0.6655

GBP/USD 1.1915 and 1.1735

USD/CAD 1.3288 to 1.2901.

USD/JPY 139.88 to 136.76.

GBP/JPY 165.68 to 162.53

EUR/JPY 140.18 to 137.54

EUR/AUD 1.4987 to 1.4717.

EUR/NZD 1.6493 to 1.6306

GBP/AUD 1.7648 to 1.7448.

Brian Twomey