A written for yesterday day trade, USD/TRY top was located at 1.4049 and USD/TRY traded 8.4094 then dropped 191 pips to 8.3892 and consistent to trades at 200 pips on 400 ish daily pips.
Only 5 vital numbers apply to today’s USD/TRY day trade as follows: 8.4485, 8.4591, 8.4697, 8.5122 and 8.5335.
USD/TRY massive overbought and at current 8.5815 contains a long way to drop not only a day trade but weekly, medium and longer terms.
Brian Twomey
At week’s beginning, GBP/USD not only closed at 1.4110 but above vital 1.3985. While EUR/USD broke below 1.2111, NZD/USD 0.7176 and AUD/USD at 0.7707, GBP/USD as the outlier sat above 1.3985. GBP/USD lower must break 1.3985 and 1.3985 is located right around the 100 day average at today’s correct 1.3960.
A total of 4 times in the last 2 months, we’ve seen EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD break below vital averages and GBP/USD remains trading above. EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD always recovered and traded higher. What forced EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD higher was deeply oversold EUR/CHF, AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF.
EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD were unable to sustain lower levels against not only oversold CHF but a non compliant GBP/USD. GBP/USD must not only break 1.3985 but GBP/CHF must trade below 1.2632 to lend confidence to EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD vital breaks.
Currency markets not only requires conformity but concurrence lacks among many currency pairs in the present trading environment. More divergence exists currently rater than compliance. And many examples exist.
AUD/USD below 0.7707 and EUR/AUD below at 1.5713. This divergence can’t hold and explains EUR/AUD higher today. GBP/AUD traded above 1.8150 while EUR/AUD below 1.5713. More divergence that can’t hold.
Holding up GBP/USD to move lower and break 1.3985 is EUR/GBP at most important 0.8660. Current EUR/GBP is not only deeply oversold but EUR/GBP is a USD pair and Correlates to GBP/USD at -95%. A higher EUR/GBP represents a lower GBP/USD. Once EUR/GBP breaks 0.8659 then uniformity exists again to EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD to not only break lower but sustains to trade much lower levels.
EUR/GBP for today’s day trade until 10:00 AM EST contains 5 vital points 0.8546, 0.8568, 0.8579, 0.8612 and 0.8634. Its a matter of time before EUR/GBP breaks higher from 0.8659.
GBP/USD to match EUR/GBP 0.8634 then lower levels are located at 1.4048, 1.4058 and 1.4074 and 1.4083.
Once GBP/USD achieves lower levels, it trades higher and lower for EUR/GBP.
EUR/GBP on a weekly trade must break 0.8639 and 0.l8649 to challenge 0.8659 and higher to 0.8720 then 0.8740.
The better trade however is GBP/USD instead of EUR/GBP due to GBP/USD more expansive ranges EUR/GBP.
Overall averages for GBP/USD point lower while EUR/GBP averages point directly higher. EUR/GBP 200 day average is located at 0.8755 and 0.8628 at the 50 day average.
Brian Twomey
USD/TRY Vs EUR/USD Correlations currently run +86% and up from +60% about 1 month ago. EUR Vs USD correlations running extremely high together cannot hold as this relationship must and will break wide open.
USD/TRY Day Trade
5 vital numbers for today’s trade as follows: 8.3211, 8.3315, 8.3420, 8.3839 and 8.4049. While weekly ranges are running this week at 3,000 pips, day trades break down to roughly 400 pips.
USD/TRY Long term
USD/TRY longer term is massively overbought and should trade 7.000’s easily. On a much longer term basis, USD/TRY contains a target at 6.3300’s.
A short only strategy is the only trade available. USD/TRY sits above 2 vital points: 8.2602 and 7.0461. Currently 8.2602 is oversold while 7.0451 is overbought as well as averages below 7.0461 down to 2.000’s.
USD/TRY sits comfortably above 5 and 10 year averages at 5.2807 and 3.7308 yet overbought.
Brian Twomey
USD/CAD target last week at 1.2201 achieved 1.2176 from the BOC lows on Wednesday at 1.2056 or 120 pips. The target at 1.2201 will complete this week and much more upside to go.
DXY traded 77 pips last week from 89.83 to 90.60 and barely broke above vital 90.24.
Low and oversold DXY contains a long way to the brick wall at 95.00. This means all currency pairs as USD/Other Currency to include EM also contains a long only strategy for at least another 400 pips higher.
As EURUSD completed upside and downside targets last week, 1.2134 as written was a huge number due to its proximity at 1.2111. EUR/USD choices was travel to 1.2174 or break 1.2111 and trade lower. As lower bound currencies NZD/USD broke 0.7176 and AUD/USD 0.7707, EUR/USD lacked the option to trade higher and instead broke 1.2111 and traded 20 pips lower.
EUR/USD last 4 week close prices averages 1.2160 and 1.2172 as a median. EUR/USD closed at 1.2107 and 53 pips from its average. EUR/USD closed last week at 1.2165, traded 52 pips to 1.2217 then 73 pips below 1.2165 to 1.2091.
As written January to yearly forecasts upon long term views, the price slowdown and dead ranges anticipated remains into current June. Expect more of the same for the next months.
Yet go back and read the central bank 2016 research to currency price changes and revealed is currency prices are trading as forecast by central banks. The slowdown to prices is exactly what central banks designed. The BOE is best to read due to the full details explained.
Currency prices were not only massively re scaled but the only chances to profit is by economic announcements yet off snyc announcements will offer only a few pips more but overall prices are contained within the new price structure.
A central bank may inform the economy is crashing yet its worth 20 extra pips. Interest rate changes are worth 40 pips. The BOC last Wednesday offered 30 pips. The difference between 1 and 2% Inflation is meaningless.
Knowing the 2016 changes and the January price slowdown, an extensive adjustment began to trades and strategies to allow longs and shorts for daily and weekly trades as demonstrated many times. EUR/USD ranged last week overall 126 pips but we profited much more than 126 pips.
The least of trader worry and concern is economic announcements especially longer range economic views.
No need exists anymore to run economic data as this information exists within the price. Plus economic announcements are linearly scaled so an off sync announcement today is meaningless to the longer run term. The market price doesn’t care about long term views nor does it hardly care about daily off snyc announcements.
Only 2 factors move the currency price: Interest rates and money supplies and each share an inverse relationship. But never reported. Yet the long winded daily and weekly scribbles in regards to economics is nothing more than pablum and won’t earn 2 cents.
The winners in currency markets was EM currencies as USD/OTHER CURRENCY. USD for EM was hit hard over the past 3 weeks and al skyrocketed last week. USD/BRL for example flew from 5.0100 lows to 5.1400’s. USD/BRL is one example of many EM currencies to trade 1000’s of pips higher.
GBP/NZD
GBP/NZD Correlations to GBP/USD now run +93% to GBP/USD and -94 to USD/CAD. GBP/NZD transformed from a USD pair to current GBP. GBP/NZD is skyrocket overbought to begin the week.
EUR/NZD
EUR/NZD is also massively overbought and Correlations to EUR/USD run -0.08 and -61% to NZD/USD. NZD/USD is richter scale oversold and heading higher this week.
GBP/NZD Weekly Trade
Short Anywhere or 1.9771 to target 1.9610. Must cross 1.9752, 1.9733, 1.9714, 1.9695, 1.9676, 1.9657, 1.9638, 1.9619.
Long 1.9610 to target 1.9659.
Not only a weekly trade but offered levels to watch the trade unfold or to take profits when satisfied.
EUR/NZD Weekly Trade
Short Anywhere or 1.6984 and 1.6978 to target 1.6896. Must cross 1.6978, 1.6961, 1.6945, 1.6928, 1.6912 and 1.6904.
Short below 1.6879 to target 1.6813.
Long 1.6813 to target 1.6863.
Long 1.6896 to target 1.6945.
USD/TRY
USD/TRY Short 8.4928 and 8.5120 to target 8.3002.
Giant ranges this week for USD/TRY
Next 24 Hours 8.4388 to 8.3402
Short tops and long bottoms for quick and easy pips to cover next 24 hours.
Weekly Ranges 1540 pips, 0.0770 and 0.0385
CHF/JPY
Short 122.70 and 122.81 to target 121.09
Option exists to long to target 122.70 then short to 121.09
Overall JPY cross pairs remain fairly neutral as seen over the past 3 and 4 weeks.
Brian Twomey
As written Sunday and reiterated today, EUR/USD short 1.2214 and 1.2224 to target 1.2134. EUR/USD achieved 1.2217. Short 1.2214 and 1.2224 achieved 1.2142 lows.
Weekly trade options were long anywhere Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday. Once targets are established, entry becomes secondary. From EUR/USD lows Monday at 1.2144 to 1.2117 factors + 73 pips. Then short 1.2217 to 1.2134 dead stopped at 1.2142 +75 Pips.
Total 2 trades +148 pips.
Next weekly trade option. Short 1.2214 and 1.2224 to target 1.2134. Dead stopped 1.2142. One trade +75 pips.
Day traders added to weekly trades from either 148 or 75 pips by profit from day trades as extra added pips while waiting for weekly targets. Traders not interested in day trades set entries and targets and lived a comfortable life outside of markets as none were subjected to long winded articles or loser trades that said nothing nor earned 1 pip after completion.
The target at 1.2134 holds into this trade day however as Friday is here and new trades are sent Saturday, traders will exit for profit for all shorts.
Today’s most vital 5 numbers for EUR/USD: 1.2127, 1.2136, 1.2150, 1.2220 and 1.2251.
Today’s close is expected at 1.2152.
For next week, same strategy as either long to target then short or short at target to the next target. Weekly trades run target to target in order to trade and profit continuously all week.
Vital levels next week are 1.2188 and 1.2224. On a close at 1.,2152 then vital levels become 1.2183 and 1.2218. On a close at 1.2134 then vital levels become 1.2180 and 1.2215.
EUR/USD averages are moving against longs and dropping so then overall strategy is short.
USD/CAD
Target at 1.2201 achieved highs at 1.2124 from 1.2056 weekly lows. Entry anywhere Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday profited. The close is expected at 1.2049 and a 100 pip spread from EUR/USD’s close.
Longs next week will run under 1.2145 and target around 1.2196 to 1.2211.
From low to high priced currencies: NZD/USD ranged 76 pips from 0.7240 to 0.7176 while EUR/USD traveled 73 pips from 1.2144 to 1.2117.
EUR/USD and NZD/USD correlations run +86% and not terrible.
DXY remains dead and oversold at 90.00’s yet 500 upside pips to vital brick wall at 95.00;s exists. See USD/CAD as long only strategy.
Brian Twomey
http://www.wrhi.com/2021/06/061021-brian-twomey-author-166598
Thank you Patti Mercer, Lucas McFadden, all staff at WRHI and friends in Rock Hill South Carolina
Brian Twomey
Starts at 1:55 for 11 minutes. Thank you Patti Mercer, Lucas McFadden and all staff at WRHI Rock Hill SC. A great time and great honor
Brian Twomey
As written Sunday and reiterated today, EUR/USD short 1.2214 and 1.2224 to target 1.2134. Then 3 days later, EUR/USD achieved 1.2217. Note EUR/USD dead stopped on the way down at reported 1.2174.
The target remains 1.2134 then EUR/USD is challenged to break 1.2114 or rise to next target at 1.2174 which means we are short again for next week.
EUR/USD’s day trade complied to the weekly target for extra pips and many more during the week while waiting for EUR/USD’s target.
Knowing the EUR/USD target at 1.2214 and 1.2224, the weekly trade option was long anywhere during the week then short at 1.2214 to target 1.2134. EUR/USD lows this week achieved at 1.2144 then long to target 1.2214 profited 70 pips and short 1.2214 profited so far 40 pips for a total profit of 110 pips and running.
And this is the way it goes every week for 18 currency pairs and without failure using pen, paper and calculator.
USD/CAD’s weekly target 1.2201 on a break of 1.2179, 1.2184 and 1.2199 achieved 1.2116 . .
Despite a 36 pip miss to USD/CAD weekly entry, USD/CAD lifted again from 1.2056 today to trade 60ish pips to 1.2116 for the day trade.
USD/CAD remains deeply oversold for the weekly trade while the day trade today was actually a serious underperformer.
Not only will USD/CAD longs next week persist as usual but USD/CAD remains in the routine as day trades.
Range compression next week looks like another guarantee. Despite range compression for the past 4 weeks, overall weekly trades are actually running perfectly as this period is a great timer to hit trades.
Brian Twomey
I’m scheduled to appear at 8 AM EST Tomorrow with Patti Mercer and Lucas McFadden on WRHI Palmetto Mornings to discuss the Election of 1870. This station is the only radio and TV station serving the community yet it is extremely popular to the community on many fronts. It truly serves the community and run by very decent people.
To Listen Live and past recordings
http://www.wrhi.com/programming/palmetto-mornings
Brian Twomey
I’m scheduled to appear at 8 AM EST Tomorrow with Patti Mercer and Lucas McFadden on WRHI Palmetto Mornings to discuss the Election of 1870. This station is the only radio and TV station serving the community yet it is extremely popular to the community on many fronts. It truly serves the community and run by very decent people.
To Listen http://www.wrhi.com/programming/palmetto-mornings
Brian Twomey
EUR/USD remains at 1.2201 highs and 16 hours later the lows at 1..2163 and 2 pips below the open at 1.2165. The weekly trade holds as follows: short 1.2214 and 1.2224 is located at 1.2134.
EUR/USD big decision from 1.2134 is either break 1.2114 to travel lower or trades higher to 1.2174.
EUR/USD day trade today again contains 5 vital numbers: 1.2119, 1.2124, 1.2141, 1.2210 and 1.2241. The topside changes by 1 pip and bottom by 3 pips since yesterday and essentially no change.
EUR/USD traded dead this week however 2 days remain until Friday. The weekly trade may or may not materialize but that’s why 18 currency pairs trade every week and day trades to profit extra pips.
While EUR/USD traded dead, USD/CAD and EUR/USD exact opposite has been on the move. From the weekly open at 1.2068, USD/CAD traded 1.2057 to 1.2117 highs or 60 pips in 72 continuous hours of trading. EUR /USD traded 1.2144 to 1.2201 or 57 pips.
USDS/CAD’s weekly target remains at 1.2201 on a break of 1.2179, 1.2184 and 1.2199 however no entry exists as entry missed by 36 pips. No problem here as we go short at 1.2201 to target 1.2061 and 1.2051.
USD/CAD day trade only 5 vital numbers for today: 1.2045, 1.2050, 1.2063, 1.2136 and 1.2167.
A higher or lower USD/CAD translates to a higher or lower GBP/JPY due to negative and opposite correlations and a fairly permanent condition for the GBP/JPY and USD/CAD relationship.
GBP/JPY 5 vital numbers today as follows: 154.17, 154.23, 154.55, 155.34 and 155.73.
Noted for Gold as posted May 26, short strategies only. Gold achieved lows so far at 1855 from 1918 highs or 63 points. EUR/GBP in the same 7 day period traded 0.8644 to 0.8565 or 79 pips.
Economics Vs Politics
While lazer beam focus on economics, I suggest the political system and policies serves as more sound forward guidance . Clinton 1990 manipulations of the 1978 Community Reinvestment Act guaranteed a house and market crash in 2008 by forced lending to potential home owners without a means to repay.
History dates market crashes and massive sell offs to Railroads in the 1800’s by government Railroad loan guarantees and led to government intervention, stock manipulations, bribery to political representatives and overbudgets to extremes.
Democrats now target companies not practicing social justice to haul in front of Congress. Democrats will seek control of these companies with a larger goal to nationalize all major companies and operate under government and harsh government rules. Yesterday was Mattel in front of Congress. More will come for ridicule, destruction and forced big donations to the Democrat Party. Its a stick up.
Brian Twomey
The commonality to Inflation, NFP, ISM, ZEW is once the release occurs then the market price reacts to comport to daily and weekly trades and targets. After the release, the news is old, meaningless and doesn’t deserve attention from a trade perspective because the day trade covered the event and the price is then located within the market. The price no longer cares about past events and literally minutes after the release.
How can a market price today care about an event yesterday, 2 days and 1 week ago.
The trader must then look forward to the next news event rather focus on the past as prior events won’t assist to today’s trades. As day, weekly and long term trades are known in its entirety from vital supports, resistance, entries and targets, the next news event is completely covered for an as expected and off sync release.
The news event becomes secondary to the current price yet it facilitates to assist to movements so to enter and profit from trades.
Taper by central banks is a speculation and not known to actually taper, not taper and amounts. A market price doesn’t know nor speculate to such events as a market price lacks details to trade the event and to price taper into the overall price. When Taper is or if ever announced then the day and weekly trade has the trades perfectly covered. Taper then becomes meaningless 2 minutes after the release and never a need to mention again.
A central bank meeting holds the same parameters as a news event. What central banks say or do is meaningless as the price and trade is known prior to the announcement. The market price then moves forward and to its next destination upon release.
2 minutes after the central banks announces then the event becomes meaningless as the price no longer cares about past events.
A market price spends the vast majority of its time in neutral or a neutral zone as it awaits input to move. Without input, the price can’t and won’t move. What does a neutral price say to NFP from 3 days ago. A market price begins trade in neutral and ends at neutral.
EUR/USD
Weekly short from 1.2214 and 1.2224 achieved 1.2201 and dropped 38 pips to 1.2163. EUR/USD achieves 1.2214 and 1.2224 today on a break of 1.2209. EUR/USD opened the week at 1.2165 and traded 36 pips higher and 38 pips lower. Now the price sits at neutral and waits for input to move. NFP is gone to the current price.
Longer term vital points are located at 1.2020, 1.2028, 1.2040, 1.2109, 1.2178, 1.2247, 1.2317, 1.2386 and 1.2456.
EUR/USD day trade today requires focus on 5 numbers, 1.2240, 1.2209 and below 1.2143, 1.2127 and 1.2116.
Downside and upside prices are 2 vastly different stories and each has its own special calculation as each are not factored the same. What is seen by the human eye is deceptive.
The news event will drive prices to the exact points today.
Brian Twomey
The EM story for the past 4 weeks experienced a massive drops to EUR/EM and USD/EM. EUR was employed as the example however the same situation exists as AUD/EM, NZD/EM, and GBP/EM Vs USD/EM counterparts. if one currency pair is affected then the entire universe experiences the same outcome due to the deep interconnection to currency prices across the world.
Both EUR/EM and USD/EM not only trade below respective high/low points but EUR/EM and USD/EM are massively oversold. The entire structure of EM positions are not only far off base but to normalize EUR Vs USD requires trading on opposite sides of high/ low points. This requires hefty movements by either EUR or USD due to the massive distances both traveled to achieve such oversold status.
How such a circumstance occurred is found in the massive trading ranges of EM currencies. Both EUR/EM and USD/EM travels a far greater distance to a DXY/ USD and/or EUR/USD rise and fall. EUR/USD for example may trade 100 pips but EUR/EM will trade 4 and 500 pips.
Note EUR/EM higher numbered exchange rates to USD/EM. Possibly a 1998 EUR introduction to preserve EUR as a currency.
The problem however is localized on a smaller scale as both EUR/USD and DXY lacks range and movements. A 200 pip month for EUR/USD and DXY as seen in the past 4 weeks resulted in 1500 and 3000 pip movements for EUR/EM and USD/EM. Without running correlations, the assumption is EUR/EM and USD/EM are married closely to Correlations which means EM will experience a massive breakout to normalize again and excellent trade opportunities.
For the standard 9 currency pairs were viewed from monthly ranges, significant high/ low points, current prices and to overbought and oversold status.
EUR/BRL
Monthly range 6.9983 to 6.1395 or 8588 pips. Current price 6.1354 and oversold from 6.4451.
USD/BRL
Monthly range 5.8752 to 5.0312 or 8440 pips. Current price 5.0466 and oversold from 5.3218.
Both EUR/BRL and USD/BRL experienced near equal pips to drops.
EUR/HRK
Monthly range 7.6100 to 7.4951 or 1149 pips. Current price 7.5014 and oversold from 7.5325
USD/HRK
Monthly range 6.4623 to 6.1257 or 3376 pips. Current price 6.1687 and oversold from 6.2188.
USD/HRK dropped 3 times to EUR/HRK and USD/HRK the better long trade.
EUR/HUF
Monthly range 369.48 to 346.72 or 2376 pips. Current price 345.71 and oversold from 353.70.
USD/HUF
Monthly range 310.38 to 283.20 or 2718 pips. Current price 284.42 and oversold from 292.86.
Near equal selloff to a fairly neutral currency pair.
EUR/MYR
Monthly range 4.8452 to 5.0808 and rise 2356 pips. Current 5.0188 and overbought from 4.9866.
USD/MYR
Monthly range 4.0460 to 4.1594 or rise 1134 pips. Current price 4.1280 and overbought from 4.1153.
EUR/MYR better long as trade to USD/MYR traded 2 times.
EUR/PLN
Monthly range 4.6797 to 4.4480 or 2317 pips. Current price 4.4603 and oversold from 4.5106.
USD/PLN
Monthly range 3.9835 to 3.6401 or 3434 pips. Current price 3.6670 and oversold from 3.7240.
Long USD/PLN.
EUR/RON
Monthly range 4.8686 to 4.9419 or + 733 pips. Current price 4.9223 and overbought from 4.9112.
USD/RON
Monthly range 4.2012 to 4.0152 or 1860 pips. Current price 4.0483 and oversold from 4.0545.
Long USD/RON.
EUR/TRY
Monthly range 8.5634 to 10.7092 or +2.1458 pips. Current price 10.4861 and overbought from 9.9683.
USD/TRY
Monthly range 7.2072 to 8.7763 or 1.5691 pips. Current price 8.6273 and overbought from 8.2269.
EUR/TRY short better trade.
EUR/ZAR
Monthly range 18.4895 to 16.3081 or 2.1814 pips. Current price 16.3751 and oversold from 17.2252.
USD/ZAR
Monthly Range 15.5767 to 13.4357 or 2.14 pips. Current price 13.4826 and oversold from 14.2252.
EUR/CNY
Monthly range 7.8774 to 7.6804 or 1970 pips. Current price 7.7761 and neutral to oversold from 7.8098.
USD/CNY
Monthly range 6.5758 to 6.3603 or 2155 pips. Current price 6.3970 and break 6.4476.
CNY is a fairly neutral currency pair.
Brian Twomey
EUR/USD’s big line break as reported last Sunday was 1.2240 and EUR/USD traded to 1.2254 on Tuesday then dropped Thursday to 1.2163 for 91 pips. EUR/USD then bounced on NFP Friday from the 1.2105 support and traded to 1.2184 and 16 pips past our 1.2166 target.
USD/CAD from NFP dead stopped at 1.2071 and 10 pips from reported 1.2061 and held the 1.2183 to 1.2061 range while DXY dropped from 90.53 to 90.12 and held the 90.05 to 90.97 range. NFP trades were known 6 hours before the release. for 8 currency pairs. NFP facilitated the trades as the release was located inside the price.
While lazer beam focus on NFP for a 69 pip EUR/USD move, EUR/USD Thursday dropped 71 pips and without attention given. NFP long ago lost its credibility as a major event particularly as releases holds the vital 50,000 range as NFP did last Friday. Outside of the 50,000 range only then would prices trade more than its traditional 50 and 60 pips.
EUR/USD closed this week at 1.2165, last week at 1.2190 and 1.2180 three weeks ago. EUR/USD last month traded 200 pips from 1.1991 to 1.2200’s while DXY traded 200 pips from 89.00 to 91.00. EUR/USD last week traded 148 pips while DXY traded 96 pips from 89.67 to 90.63.
The FX story for the past 4 weeks to range compression is located within the EUR/USD and DXY relationship and the problem is low and oversold DXY as DXY traded within the context of vital 90.24 and hasn’t strayed far enough to allow other currency pairs to move significantly. The only winners to big moves was wide rangers GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD and GBP/AUD as all traded 3 and 400 pip weeks.
EUR/USD vital high/ low break this week is located at 1.2114 while DXY closed at 90.13 and 9 pips from 90.24.
Last week’s EUR/USD 1.2240 is now 1.2234 and a 6 pip drop from 1.2240. Overall averages are moving against EUR/USD to move higher however slowly. Below 1.2114 targets 1.2054 and 26 pips short of EUR/USD’s next big break below at 1.2028 and 1.2020.
The target from short 1.2214 and 1.2224 is located at 1.2134. EUR/USD big decision from 1.2134 is either break 1.2114 to travel lower or trades higher to 1.2174.
USD/CAD matches EUR/USD from long 1.2029 and 1.2021 to target 1.2201 on a break of 1.2179, 1.2184 and 1.2199.
GBP/USD and USD/CAD as the only currency pairs beside wide rangers to maintain ability to move far and wide yet neither pair has shown any performance to move significantly. USD/CAD ranged last week 125 pips to GBP/USD’s 150. A larger move for USD/CAD is located above 1.2305 and GBP/USD below 1.3975. Both would benefit if EUR/GBP breaks higher at 0.8670 then USD/CAD trades higher and GBP/USD lower.
JPY cross pairs again begins the week at neutral to overbought and caught between the EUR/USD and DXY movement problem. USD/JPY closed within 100 pips of its big point for lower at 108.43.
Overall, yet another range week ahead.
Brian Twomey
EUR/USD big high/ low break is now located at 1.2105. EUR/USD trades above the 200 day average at 1.2061 and not below as reported by contributors. 1.2095 fails to register
If 1.2105 breaks lower.
1.2055 for today also fails to register as a significant point. 1.2059 is actual.
1.2110 is actually 1.2112 and a minor point. Don’t push your luck for EUR/USD at the “band of support” from 1.1993 to 1.1986. At 1.2015 also fails to register as a significant level. Its only 5 pips from 1.2105.
If ever a thief of pips exists, its Fibonacci numbers because it doesn’t comply with statistics. The last indicator to ever trade is Fibonacci because of its set up as Square Roots of 5. Not many pips trade these days so every pip is vital .
Statistics is more accurate not only to currencies but all market prices and it offers more pips gained and exact support and resistance points than Fibonacci. Leonardo Fibonacci needs to rest in peace where he belongs.
Market price ranges and speeds radically changed in 2016. Today’s dead markets are the result of those changes. It represents the success and past intentions of central banks. Websites, news services and many traders failed to maintain pace with the new changes and operate as if today is pre 2016. Pre 2016 may never be seen again in markets as central banks now control market prices rather than pre 2016 to facilitate the price.
DXY range today is located from 90.05 to 90.97. Observe 90.24 as most vital.
EUR/USD range today is located from 1.2044 to 1.2166. Only 5 numbers are most important: 1.2044, 1.2059, 1.2077, 1.2135 and 1.2166. All other numbers in the series are minor.
NFP is the least of concerns today as EUR/USD and DXY will hold its ranges. This means long lows and short highs.
USD/CAD ranges today 1.2061 to 1.2183. Most vital 5 numbers: 1.2061, 1.2076, 1.2094 , 1.2152, 1.2183.
Brian Twomey
EUR/USD weekly target at 1.2150 met the daily trade downside target at 1.2129. A good example how to trade weekly and daily targets simultaneously. From week’s start and knowing 1.2150 as the target, all day trades were short. Short trades for EUR/USD as of this morning amounted to 8 trades at twice daily in order to trade continuously. Day trades assist for extra pips during the week while waiting for targets to achieve destination.
While the weekly target was 1.2150, the downside target for this morning’s day trade was 1.2129. EUR/USD’s weekly trade by this morning was already running +90 pips at the 1.2150 target and oversold.
Was the option to exit at 1.2150 , take profits and walk away or exit at 1.2150 and enter a new trade short for an extra 21 pips. The smart approach was exit at 1.2150 as the day trade this morning was running +60 ish pips and this doesn’t include all previous day trades. How much did 21 pip matter for an extra trade. It doesn’t and no perfect guarantee to 1.2129 to trade especially when 1.2155 matched to DXY vital point at 90.24. A point that held for 2 straight days.
DXY
As written this morning, 90.24 had to break to target 90.51 and once EUR/USD broke below 1.2155 then DXY 90.24 broke higher and DXY achieved target at 90.51. DXY remains above 90.24 and explains why EUR/USD sits at 1.2120 lows without movement.
DXY 90.24 was also the green light for USD/CAD and USD/JPY to trade to day trade highs at 1.2112 and 110.35. DXY is clearly a vital indicator and insight to all currency pairs.
DXY next vital points are located at 91.57 and 92.89 while EUR/USD to trade lower must break 1.2106. AUD/USD already broke its point at 0.7703 and NZD/USD at 0.7188. USD/CHF remains below important 0.9053. And waiting on slow mover GBP/USD to comply with the universe to break 1.3963.
Until the China open, EUR/USD contains a range from 1.2060 to 1.2183 while DXY ranges from 90.03 to 90.95.
Brian Twomey
From weekly commentary, EUR/USD begins the week fairly neutral against a big break at 1.2240. EUR/USD traded to 1.2254 then dropped to 91 pips to 1.2163 and bounced again. If traders followed on the social sites then seen is 2nd round shorts are active from 1.2215 to target 1.2150.
Exists today on the low side is 1.2152 and 1.2131. EUR/USD shorts today must break 1.2161, 1,2142 and 1.2144 to trade 1.2131 and 1.2129. Then long to target 1.2172. Then short again to target 1.2141. Then short again to target 1.2121.
Between weekly and daily trades, 18 currency pairs trade continuously from Sunday to Friday.
Overall, EUR/USD must break 1.2111 to target much lower levels.
Ranges remain compressed against massively slow price speeds and most dead since EUR introduction in 1998. No restoration in sight to expanded ranges and increased volatility.
The problem is not exchange rates but rather underlying interest rates as interest rates from central bank to central bank married to the point no difference exist from central bank to central bank. Interest rate markets must trade correctly and expand ranges in order for exchange rate ranges to inflate.
Fed Funds in the past week traded 10 points daily and those 10 points represent extreme lows to highs. Overall Fed Funds traded barely 10 points daily over the past month. Central banks are killing markets. if market leader Fed funds trades 10 points then Central bank interest rates won’t exceed 10 points. The Fed calls the shots to traded markets.
Yet currencies are the only game in town as currency price ranges must exceed all financial instruments. If currency price ranges compress then all financial instruments trade in smaller ranges to include stock indices, commodities, Gold and Silver and all metals.
DXY from 90.05 at today’s close and 90.04 yesterday, DXY never moved. Yesterday DXY traded 89.86 to 90.24 or 38 pips. Weekly, DXY traded 89.66 to 90.24 or 58 pips. Recall 90.24 is the exact point at the 10 year monthly average and the point to break and move higher.
No changes to DXY from yesterday as bottoms are located at 89.59 and extreme tops at 90.51 on a break of 90.24.
Brian Twomey
Forex Ranges are Mathematical and ranges are found in books on meteorology. Far better books to learn and understand Statistics. due to many examples offered. The older the books the better due to the time taken by authors to offer deeper explanations to Statistical weather concepts.
Think about wind speeds, time to hurricane touchdowns and distances to touch certain areas. How about rain, snowfalls, blizzards, tornadoes and other weather patterns and events.
So time, distance and speed. Speed = Distance divide Time.
Distance = Speed X Time.
Time = Distance divide Speed.
Time to a moving average is found by price divide by average. Answers how long will target take to complete. Speed answers how fast is price and average moving while Distance answers how far.
Most vital are ranges to all market prices. That’s the distance between two points. The trade strategy is short highs at Deciles and long Terciles. All come in ranges by positive and negative values.
EUR/USD today until 10 AM Est, Tercile ranges are 1.2143 to 1.2073. Ranges are also vital break points to see a price rise above or below.
AUD/USDS current price at 0.7719 ranges from 0.7719 to 0.7736 or breaks 0.7719 to range 0.7719 to 0.7702. The Tercile range is 0.7673 to 0.7731. Informs 0.7731 must break to trade 0.7736 and 0.7702 must break to trade 0.7673.
AUD by Tercile ranges also informs a low and oversold price.
The same concept to ranges below are found in Confidence Intervals however ranges below are more accurate as Confidence intervals contain wider distances. Can’t remember 9.
Tercile 3rds
Quartiles 4
Quintiles 5
Sextiles 6
Septiles 7
Octiles 8
Deciles 10
Mathematical Stops are also located on site if interested. Enter Mathematical Stops in the Box to right and it appears. Enter any concept, trade, financial instrument and it appears.
Brian Twomey
DXY at current 90.04 trades below the 10 year monthly average at 90.24 and is oversold on a long term basis. The position informs automatically a low and oversold price. The 11 and 12 year averages is unknown as normally market prices rarely trade below 10 year monthly averages.
Fairly common is oversold at 7 and 8 year monthly averages and this applies to all market prices.
The number 7 is an important number in financial markets as it represents not only a cycle high but its ordained in the bible from Genesis 41 to represent life cycles as 7 rich years and 7 lean years. Money comes easy in 7 rich years while struggles are seen in 7 lean years.
The number 7 to DXY applies at 94.55 and a vital number to lead next to the 5 year average at 95.53 and a host of averages at 95.00’s. The next break above are found at 91.57, 92.89, 93.70 and 94.55.
DXY’s bottom today for the day trade is located at 89.60 and top at 90.52. The larger range for DXY is located from 89.29 and to 90.90. DXY’s daily range is quite dead and dull and matches EUR/GBP. Neither are enthusiastic to trade.
DXY bottom at 89.60 will match EUR/GBP at 0.8584 and DXY top matches EUR/GBP at 0.8672.
Far worse to trade is WTI as DXY and EUR/GBP ranges exceed WTI.
However to follow the USD theme for Commodities, WTI bottom is located at 67.75 and top at 68.45. Bottom must break 68.02. The larger range is located at 67.56 to 68.96. The 8 month range from 33.72 to 68.13 contains a mid point at 50.92 and monthly average range at 4.3 points.
Brent is the exact circumstance as WTI due to not only the same ranges but slow and dead movements and DXY and EUR/GBP ranges exceed Brent and WTI.
The S&P’s bottom today is located at 4181.02 and top at 4223.06. Practically the same trade as DXY and EUR/GBP. The larger S&P range is located from 4129.10 to 4276.25.
Nasdaq Bottoms today at 13667.79 and tops at tops at 13805.17.
Brian Twomey
As written for Copper to ranges for Monday trade as follows: Bottom 4.6484 and top at 4.6952 and 4.6992. Actual trade range yesterday was 4.7018 to 4.6659 or 0.0359 points.
USD/CLP, the Chilean Peso as reported Sunday bottom at 720.87 and top at 728.13.
Actual range 720.11 to 725.71 or 5.6 pips. USD/CLP and Copper ran 5.6 to 3.59 points. The Copper price is located within USD/CLP.
USD/CLP opens today in Santiago 722.88 while Copper closed at 4.6810.
USD/CLP bottom today is located at 719.26 and top at 723.50 or 4.24 pips total.
Copper bottoms today at 4.6575 and top at 4.6845 2.7 points.
Copper and USD/CLP runs today at 4.24 Vs 2.7.
USD/CLP weekly range as reported was 718.99 to 730.24 or 11.25 points. The new weekly range as of this trade day is located from 740.74 to 723.06 or 17.68 pips. As written due to larger USD/CLP ranges, Copper will see a broader move this week. USD/CLP allows the move.
Exchange rates not only predict exchange rates but also forecast perfectly Commodities, stock markets, Gold, Silver and Metals and any financial instrument traded in today’s markets. The price of Commodities, stock markets and any financial instrument is located within the exchange rate and won’t ever leave. Its mathematically impossible to trade outside the exchange rate. The commodity and financial instrument was designed to trade within the exchange rate.
Not required is knowledge to Exchange rates nor Commodities, stock markets and any financial instrument. Not required is charts, graphs, Fibs, stops and technical analysis. Not required is monetary policy, Covid, economics, economic announcements, taper no taper and 90% to all what readers must suffer through every trade day.
The market price doesn’t care about such things as economics and fundamentals because its also located within the day, weekly and long term price. To know prices beforehand then this will be seen.
The reality to markets then and now is interest rates as the driving force to every market price on the planet including most vital exchange rates, the forecaster of all prices.
Brian Twomey
BRIAN TWOMEY ON TRADING 