FX Weekly

EUR/USD expected close at 0.9986 actual was 1.0011. Past close price forecasts always landed within a 20 to 40 pips range.


Nothing changed since Thursday as EUR/USD trades 0.9983 to 0.9862 or 0.9983 to 1.0105. Here’s Thursday: 1.0110 to 0.9986 and 0.9986 to 0.9863.


The Trade: Long 0.9967 and 0.9959 to target 1.0074. Must cross 0.9997, 1.0012, 1.0027, 1.0042, 1.0057, 1.0072, 1.0087. Short 1.0074 to target 1.0028.


Target is just under 1.0105 and entry just under 0.9983.


JPY cross pairs are all oversold but 2 factors at play. GBP/JPY trades below vital 163.33. GBP/JPY below forced JPY cross pairs lower and into current oversold for the week. GBP/JPY above 163.33 forces JPY cross pairs higher. Strategy is short for most profits.


Trade Rankings’


EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, EUR/NZD, AUD/USD, EUR/AUD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF, CAD/CHF, CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, EUR/CAD.


Note JPY cross Pairs at last place. EUR/JPY maintains best to JPY cross pairs because EUR/JPY is the same exact currency as USD/JPY. Both trade almost pip for pip in unison. A short for EUR/JPY is a short for USD/JPY and vice versa.


USD/CAD sits massive overbought to oversold CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF. Good 3 trades is short USD/CAD and long CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF.


USD/JPY maintains 142.69 to 145.47 in massive ranges. Target for the week is 141.00’s.
EUR/NZD trades severely overbought above vital 1.6439 while GBP/NZD trades below 1.9183. Divergence is wide. EUR/NZD is the better trade short.


EUR/NZD at 1.6703 and GBP/NZD at 1.9058 spreads 2300 pips. Correct for normality is 2600 which says a big move ahead.


Same story to GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD divergence as EUR/AUD trades above 1.4801 and GBP/AUD below 1.7274. The spread is 2000 pips and low as normal exists at 2600 pips.


AUD/USD and NZD/USD are deeply oversold as well as AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF. NZD/CHF and NZD/USD are better longs trades.


EUR/CAD closed at 1.3274 and perfectly on the vital high/low point. Informs how perfectly are markets statistically.


GBP/CAD is the better long trade as EUR/CAD for a weekly trade is untouchable. The 24 hour trade is the better option for EUR/CAD.


Plus view EUR/CAD 1.3274 Vs USD/CAD 1.3263. The crossover is upon us.
USD/CAD 1.3263 Vs GBP/USD 1.1415 and 1848 pips is at far extremes to USD Vs Non USD.


GBP/USD at the close 1.1415 trades 1695 pips from its 5 year average at 1.3110. EUR/USD at 1.0011 trades 1440 pips from its 5 year average at 1.1451, AUD/USD at 500 and NZD/USD at 800 pips.


DXY trades 1400 pips form its 5 year average and 1300 pips from the 50 year monthly average while USD/JPY trades 3100 pips from its 5 year average at 111.85.
USD/CAD trades 300 pips from its 5 year average at 1.2900’s and 800 pips from the 10 year average at 1.2400’s.


USD Vs non trade at enormous extremes. More pertinent to the week is ranges are far wider than normal. This means more pips per trade into the 200 and 300’s.


GBP Trade Ranks


GBP/USD, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD, GBP/JPY.


While trades are factored for GBP/JPY and GBP/NZD, last on the rankings due to positions from averages and divergence to EUR/NZD and JPY Cross Pairs.


4 best are GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/CAD and GBP/AUD due to oversold.

Brian Twomey and brian@btwomey.com

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