The vital aspect to SPX 500 trades since 2015 was the 5 year monthly average. In 2018, the 5 year was located at 2300’s and rose to 2500’s in 2020. In 2022, the 5 year traded 3367.25 and today, 3766.54. The 5 year average steadily rose 280 points per year since 2018.
SPX held above the 5 year average every year since 2018 except for a brief moment in 2020 when SPX broke 2505.25 and traded to 2100’s. SPX then corrected in 2020 to trade 1500 points higher and the best point year since 2015.
The concept to bear market forecasts for 2018 and 2020 was demonstrated as false as SPX traded 1500 points in 2020 and the best trade year since 2015 while 2018 traded its best year from 2015 to 2018 at 595 points.
SPX 500 achieved lifetime highs at 4817.88 on January 2022 and since dropped to 3490.00 lows in October 2022 or 1327 points and 147.54 points per month. SPX maintained trade above the 5 year average.
2 Year Cycle
From the March 2020 post, The market price cycle takes 2 years to complete and begins from February /March to April / May about every 2 years. Complete means takes 2 years for maximum overbought or oversold. The easiest and maximum profit trades are seen every 2 years within months of the cycle.
Next big stock market cycle move is scheduled for February / March 2022 and 2024.
SPX 2020 traded 1500 pips and 1400 for 2022 and best trade years since 2015.
SPX 2024 aligns as easy trades and best profits.
Trades
SPX at current 4754.63 targets 4566.34, 4509.19 and 4490.78. SPX is held by 4321.38 and 4225.92. The 5 year average at 3766.54 is safe. SPX is overbought from 1 to 10 year averages.
The current price at 474.63 doesn’t exist. Its an imaginary number. Forecasters are using a fictional number to forecast a higher Mythological number.
The SPX season trades to the lowest point in January along with EUR/USD.
The SPX strategy is short to target then the re evaluation.
SPX 2023- 2015
SPX for 2023 traded 984.47 points and traded higher in 8 of 12 months to match EUR/USD yet 984 was a light trade year.
2023 = 3793.67 to 4778.14 or 984.47 points or 25.95%.and 82 points per month.
2022 = 4800 to 3400, a drop of 1400 points or -29% and 116 points per month.
2021= 3660 to 4800’s or +1148.81 or +31% and 95 points per month.
2020 = 2199.35 to 3766.47, +1567.12 or +71% and 130 points per month.
2019 =2448.14 to 3244.86 or +796 points or +32% and 66 points per month.
2018 =2346.89 to 2942.20 or +595 points or +25% and 49 points per month.
2017 = 2248.87 to 2695.18 or +446 points or +19% and 37 points per month.
2016 = 1813.47 to 2277.20 or +463 points, or +25% and 38 points per month.
2015 = 1867.86 to 2115.64 or +247 or +13% and 20 points per month.
Brian Twomey
BRIAN TWOMEY ON TRADING 