NFP Trade Results

 

 

 

Trades count until 10:00 am then out as part of my disciplinary rules.
EUR/USD target 1.1268 upon break of 1.1247 and 1.1257 dead stopped at next reported level at. 1.1281. Off slightly 13 pips from target. From 1.1281, reversed 30 whatever pips.
GBP/USD. Supports 1.2843, 1.2850, GBP violated to 1.2846 then bounced to mentioned 1.2901, dead stopped and reversed. Target was 1.2922 and 1.2938 upon break of 1.2900. Mentioned, GBP/USD would struggle above 1.2901. Wasn’t thrilled with the GBP set up today as the inside baseball story to price is triggers weren’t perfectly aligned.
EUR/JPY. Mentioned, EUR/JPY would struggle to go higher in 125.50’s and 125.60’s. Mentioned bottom side was wide open to 124.87, 124.71 then bottom at 124.56. EUR/JPY hit 124.47, bottom 9 pips off my bottom at 124.56. Then bounced. An overall break point level to achieve 124.87 and lower failed to report on purpose.
USD/CHF. Must breaks below 0.9685, 0.9675 then bottom 0.9662. Achieved. But violated 24 pips to 0.9638 as a result of EUR/USD at 1.1281 then bounced.
USD/CAD. Range held from 1.3569 to 1.3469. CAD dropped to 1.3492, above 1.3485 and 1.3469. Then bounced. Mentioned 1.3550’s would struggle to go higher.
USD/JPY. 112.05 to 112.27 would struggle to go higher. Must break higher was 111.80 and 111.99. Bottom at 111.02 upon break at 111.31 and 111.15 violated.
My sincere mistake to not report further break point at 110.60. At 110.60 violated 18 pips to 110.42 then bounced.
GBP/JPY. Mentioned 144.01 would begin struggle higher. GBP/JPY broke reported 143.38 and 143.11 to Bottom at 142.93.
GBP/JPY violated 142.93 to 142.02 by 91 pips. GBP/JPY also violated reported vital point at 142.40. GBP/JPY was way off today and this happens with GBP/JPY every so often. Vast majority of days, GBP/JPY hits perfect to near perfect. My mistake to not look at lower 142.00’s. Yet everyone was quite satisfied with the further drop.
Missing in this list was further daily pairs AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP. In AUD/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/AUD was perfect while NZD was slightly off. One caveat, we don’t trade EUR/AUD as EUR/AUD.
Part of today’s volatility was the result of Fed Funds close at 0.81 and 47,000 in NFP’s.

 

Brian Twomey

 

NFP Trades: Levels, Ranges, Targets

 

 

 

Fed Funds closed yesterday at 0.81 rather than traditional 0.91 since the last raise. Its normal routine for Fed Funds 2 to 3 days per month to close far lower than norms. Its not customary to close lower on the 1st of the month nor on an important day as NFP. Fed Funds will travel higher today and USD should lead the way upon NFP’s release. Should NFP report an out of sync 50,000 range then USD will see massive volatility.
Here’s bunches of trades, levels, ranges and targets. Trade the levels, watch vitals as those are daily break points to ensure prices travel higher or lower.
Point of note is we’re hitting intervals between vital break points as this has been the way for many weeks. USD in the last few days has been hitting perfect targets rather than intervals. The caution to any far upper or lower is does NFP break the 50,000 range. Then prices trade to far extremes. But not outside my vital points. Don’t be surprised to see a range release.
EUR/USD. Target above 1.1268. In the 1.1260’s, EUR/USD will struggle to go higher. Target and reverse in the 1.1260’s if seen. Higher means breaks at 1.1247 and 1.1257. Big line break located at 1.1281 and 1.1296. Neither should be seen today.
On the bottom. Bottom hits at 1.1162 upon breaks at 1.1191 and 1.1176. Long at bottoms.
USD/JPY. Target above 1.1214. USD/JPY will struggle higher from 1.1205 to 1.1227. Higher means breaks at 111.80 and 111.99. Above 111.99 then next 112.55 and not expected to be seen today. Target tops and reverse and the day will be grand.
Bottoms. Bottom of bottom is located at 111.02 and achieves by breaks at 111.31 and 111.15.
USD/CAD. CAD will struggle higher in the 1.3550’s. My target is 1.3551 to 1.3553. The upper break point for CAD is located at 1.3569 and a break can only see 1.3603. Break means the 50,000 in NFP.
Bottom break point for CAD is 1.3469. Overall range 1.3469 to 1.3569. Lower means breaks at 1.3485, 1.3469 and far bottom at 1.3451.
USD/CHF. I;m not thrilled in CHF. Target above is 0.9762. The must break to achieve is 0.9735 and 0.9746. Upper most is 0.9796.
Below break points 0.9675. The must break to see 0.9675 is 0.9685. A break of 0.9675 then bottom is 0.9662.
Overall longer term big line break for USD/CHF is 0.9876. USD/CHF is oversold so long the drops.
GBP/JPY. Up Target 144.18 to 144.20. GBP/JPY will struggle to travel higher starting at 144.01. Above 144.20 then comes 144.79 and not expected today.
Below two vital points 143.38 and 143.11. A break of 143.38 then 143.29, 143.11 an far bottom at 142.93.
Overall GBP/JPY sits above massive supports at 142.40 and 141.36.
GBP/USD. No thrills in today’s GBP. Up target 1.2938 but assumes breaks at 1.2900 and 1.2922. Above 1.2901, GBP will struggle to travel higher.
Below break points, 1.2850 and 1.2827. A break at 1.2850 then 1.2843, 1.2827 and far bottom 1.2811.
The BOE range as mentioned 0.2300’s to 1.2800’s. Don’t look at a Brexit 50% Fibo for a longer range target as 1.3200 began its decent on current prices. Longer term massive supports exist at 1.2748 and 1.2606. Both must break to see far lower. This will take a rocket ship to break lower.
EUR/JPY. Target 125.84. Target just below vital break line at 125.89. Above then next 126.16. Target above will be close as EUR/JPY will struggle in the 125.50 to 125.60’s.
Below is wide open starting at 124.87, 124.71 and far bottom at 124.56.
Overall Supports in EUR/JPY for longer term traders are located at 122.60 and 121.02.

 

Brian Twomey