This mornings range was 1.0915 – 1.0882. Point 1.0876 was range break point below while 1.0915 violated reported point at 1.0913 by 2 pips. The violation was meaningless yet instructive since the next point above was 1.0926 but price never violated or came close to overbought at 1.0950 – 1.0960. This is telling us so far any uptrend is dying. Points this afternoon tells us the same at least for the next 16 — 17 hours.
Range break below line last at 1.0876 is now 1.0845. Above range break from last 1.0925 is now 1.0921. Range break above 1.1034 but much exists to see that range break. The first is the Forward Line at 1.1010 and a drop from 1.1021.Next comes 1.0968, 1.0973, 1.1041, 1.1001.
Current price is overbought at 1.0949. Point 1.0949 is sell point if seen. A violation from RBNZ could take price to 1.0966, 1.0968 and 1.0973. To offer context to 1.0949. The point at 1.0935 reaches price sell extreme above and buy extreme at 1.0821. Plenty of downside exits. So perfect sell point in this area.
The curve downslopes with points above beginning at 1.0880, 1.0883, 1.0884, 1.0892, 1.0899, 1.0907, 1.0912, 1.0926, 1.0937 then 1.0949. I failed to mention the point 1.0896 this morning. That remains an important line that represents up or down for the wider price move in the entire distribution. So must be added and monitored. Price must remain below to gain speed for shorts to get going. Downside again target is 1.0821.But price must break 1.0859, 1.0853, 1.0836 then 1.0820’s. The larger target 1.0710, a drop of 3 pips since this morning. As price rises, downside opens much wider.
Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com