Inside the Currency Market: NZD/USD, GBP/NZD


Next above GBP/NZD is 2.3805 and 2.3849. This pair long term is in a massive oversold uptrend. Short term though its just way way overbought. Ranges are wide and so volatility very high. Extreme prices are found above at 2.3948 and below 2.3414. But lines above are falling down on current prices at 2.4142 and 2.4171. A range break is found at 2.3963. Shorts need breaks below at 2.3730 and 2.3721 to see the downtrend moving again.
Then focus becomes 2.3679, 2.3661, 2.3629, 2.3612, 2.3518 and 2.3496. Shorts must hold on but RBNZ decision is later tonight. Any rallies seen, you want to sell’em due because GBP/NZD is so vastly overbought at current prices.


I’m late but downtrend began. Higher for NZD/USD means breaks at 0.6581, 0.6596, overbought at 0.6628. Most important line 0.6608. Range breaks found above at 0.6614, 0.6646. Below range breaks 0.6549 then 0.6517. Odds on a 25% OCR cut is high. Higher odds for a dovish statement as reported by Thomson Reuters and Wall Street Journal. We should hear the same story as last month, Tradables V Non Tradables in CPI and Import and export prices. Both categories are persistent problems for New Zealand. Both categories correct if NZD/USD is lower. Attached is the page from last month to explain tradeables Vs Non, Import V Export prices along with Graphs.

Be wary of no cut and NZD/USD flys higher on an outside Fluke. The cut looks good at this stage.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market,


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