Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

EUR/USD

What’s happening with EUR is the ECB is holding its interest rates close and in tight ranges. This has been going on for weeks. The last real dip was seen July 1, Wednesday. If a dip in EUR was seen that day, it was bought. That’s why the last 3 Sunday openings saw the EUR bought but its also why rises were sold. This EUR is protected from volatility due most probably from this Greek problem. What is seen is classic, so so typical ECB. The downside is locked tight. And only slight daylight exists above.

2 lines are coming down on EUR/USD from above, 1.1245 and 1.1192. Both are falling, slowly. Range breaks below are found at 1.1094 and 1.0955. Note today’s EUR/USD opening dead stopped at 1.1095 then bounced. Range breaks above 1.1144 and 1.1285. Note 1.1285 is above the falling line at 1.1245. Not likely we see 1.1285 break in coming days. The entire EUR/USD curve is falling, its down sloping.
My points aren’t perfect because its Friday’s data but its close. The ECB even stopped releasing data over the weekends to offer how guarded they are regarding volatility and the Greece situation. So the curve 1.1120, 1.1135, 1.1149, 1.1162, 1.1174, 1.1186. Begin looking to sell right around the 1.1174 and 1.1186 area. That’s the perfect points if seen. That should mean as well we see a slight rise in EUR/JPY then begin looking for the sells right around the 137.50ish area if seen.

I will watch this EUR situation closer throughout the week and report.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: AUD/USD

AUD/USD downtrend is the result of 0.7681. That must hold to continue lower. AUD/USD and EUR/USD are pretty much the same pair. Both are severely oversold in intermediate portions of the curve. Long term, AUD is fine and has ability to continue lower. Bottoms are found between 0.6900 – 0.7100’s. Current price is 0.7420. Next point below found at 0.7417. Then we head to 0.7353 and 0.7352. Point 0.7352 is just a point but 0.7353 has more profound importance because that’s where the Buy extreme price is found intraday. This area could very well be where we see a bounce. But then the extreme sell point is found at 0.7533 and 0.7553. Still well below 0.7681. We could easily see a range between 0.7353 to 0.7553.

Previous requets next, I’m hurrying, We must look at EUR/USD next in interest rate terms for clearer picture. Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY

From 136.96 current price, Next above 137.05, 137.10, 137.50. Big point 137.50 then higher prices to 138.00’s starting at 138.11. Tough cluster of Resistance found at 138.73 and 138.92. The correlation with EUR/USD remains 0.52 or 52%. EUR/JPY remains oversold as mentioned last week and both by itself and Vs EUR/USD. This week is no different. The big intraday break below is 136.25. That break sees 134.00’s. The current range is found at 137.50 – 136.25 as most important intraday breaks. The 20 day average is driving EUR/JPY prices as is the 20 day average driving all currency prices this week. Usually that means high volatility.

Below EUR/JPY must see breaks at 136.93, 136.72, 136.63, 136.59, 136.40 Then 136.25. Intraday target is found at 137.49. The big Long short line break is found at 135.85. It holds longs intraday. Take the short upon a break.

AUD and other pairs coming next,

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com. This site is all I got, excuse appearance. Its 7 years old, never thought about in 7 years.

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/INR, EUR/USD, European History

EUR/INR, EUR/USD

From current 70.68, EUR/INR is oversold. Current short term range is found between 69.93 – 71.56. Breaks either side represent a new trend. Larger range is found between 70.04 – 75.17. Its a 500 pip range and not bad for the RBI. But current price is at lower bounds of the larger range and way oversold. Current Greek negotiations are not only breaking down but the Eurogroup and Greece proposals are miles apart. No resolution in sight but most Eurogroup nations Finland, Germany, Netherlands for example won’t vote 1 EURO to new Greek loans, many others as well. Why Finland and others is because the respective parliaments won’t approve a Greek loan but the Greeks appear to be asking for far more than what was even considered originally. France is Greece’s only ally in Europe. Nothing new for France to be the outlier of Europe. Its a Russian standoff without resolution in sight.

Ever get a chance to read Gold Wars Davidson and Weil 1971, the story of the world’s Monetary Crisis from the 1960’s and 1970’s then the current Greek crisis is a Europe repeat. Ever get a chance to read about the Austrian bank crisis of 1930’s, its a Europe repeat. Ever get a chance to read about punishing German Reparations to threaten German existence, its a Europe repeat. Ever get a chance to read Hoover Memoirs and see how the FED accomodated Europe with artificially low interest rates from 1913 – 1930, its a Europe repeat. How about Russian short sales of Wheat in the 1920’s to threaten European economic implosion. Russian incursions in Greek unions after WW 2. The Marshall Plan was based on Greeks originally. The difference this time is one common currency, many nations, nationalities, cultures, histories and allies. The currency implodes, Europe implodes.

EUR/INR from 70.68, next above 70.80, 70.88, 71.05, 71.24, 71.28, 71.56, 71.93, 72.12, 72.60. Below supports: 70.63, 70.58, 70.50, 70.13, 70.11, 70.04, 69.93. Most important above 70.63. Breaks below, then short. Buy sell points at extremes are found above at 72.75, 71.74 and 71.26. Below buy points 68.81, 68.75, 68.66, 68.16. Note the many support/ Resistance points. INR is strictly an Asian pair in its design, construction, movements and its typical to see so many points between prices.

EUR/USD. Must break at today’s opening 1.1034 to see lower. Extreme buy points 1.0860 and 1.0861 Vs above sell 1.1150 and 1.1184. Price current is at top of the range. Due to Greece, its again sell rallies for the week. If we see a rally from Greek agreement, sell it. At some point, QE may expand to accommodate any Greece deal. That means lower interest rates. I question if the Deposit rate comes down further as well. Why?. To accommodate Greece borrowing costs.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com More trades, data, info to follow